Waste in the US Health Care System: Estimated Costs and Potential for Savings.

Importance: The United States spends more on health care than any other country, with costs approaching 18% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Prior studies estimated that approximately 30% of health care spending may be considered waste. Despite efforts to reduce overtreatment, improve care, and address overpayment, it is likely that substantial waste in US health care spending remains. Objectives: To estimate current levels of waste in the US health care system in 6 previously developed domains and to report estimates of potential savings for each domain. Evidence: A search of peer-reviewed and "gray" literature from January 2012 to May 2019 focused on the 6 waste domains previously identified by the Institute of Medicine and Berwick and Hackbarth: failure of care delivery, failure of care coordination, overtreatment or low-value care, pricing failure, fraud and abuse, and administrative complexity. For each domain, available estimates of waste-related costs and data from interventions shown to reduce waste-related costs were recorded, converted to annual estimates in 2019 dollars for national populations when necessary, and combined into ranges or summed as appropriate. Findings: The review yielded 71 estimates from 54 unique peer-reviewed publications, government-based reports, and reports from the gray literature. Computations yielded the following estimated ranges of total annual cost of waste: failure of care delivery, $102.4 billion to $165.7 billion; failure of care coordination, $27.2 billion to $78.2 billion; overtreatment or low-value care, $75.7 billion to $101.2 billion; pricing failure, $230.7 billion to $240.5 billion; fraud and abuse, $58.5 billion to $83.9 billion; and administrative complexity, $265.6 billion. The estimated annual savings from measures to eliminate waste were as follows: failure of care delivery, $44.4 billion to $97.3 billion; failure of care coordination, $29.6 billion to $38.2 billion; overtreatment or low-value care, $12.8 billion to $28.6 billion; pricing failure, $81.4 billion to $91.2 billion; and fraud and abuse, $22.8 billion to $30.8 billion. No studies were identified that focused on interventions targeting administrative complexity. The estimated total annual costs of waste were $760 billion to $935 billion and savings from interventions that address waste were $191 billion to $286 billion. Conclusions and Relevance: In this review based on 6 previously identified domains of health care waste, the estimated cost of waste in the US health care system ranged from $760 billion to $935 billion, accounting for approximately 25% of total health care spending, and the projected potential savings from interventions that reduce waste, excluding savings from administrative complexity, ranged from $191 billion to $286 billion, representing a potential 25% reduction in the total cost of waste. Implementation of effective measures to eliminate waste represents an opportunity reduce the continued increases in US health care expenditures.

Retrospective analysis of outcomes following inferior vena cava (IVC) filter placement in a managed care population.

The role of inferior vena cava filter (IVC) filters for prevention of pulmonary embolism (PE) is controversial. This study evaluated outcomes of IVC filter placement in a managed care population. This retrospective cohort study evaluated data for individuals with Humana healthcare coverage 2013-2014. The study population included 435 recipients of prophylactic IVC filters, 4376 recipients of therapeutic filters, and two control groups, each matched to filter recipients. Patients were followed for up to 2 years. Post-index anticoagulant use, mortality, filter removal, device-related complications, and all-cause utilization. Adjusted regression analyses showed a positive association between filter placement and anticoagulant use at 3 months: odds ratio (ORs) 3.403 (95% CI 1.912-6.059), prophylactic; OR, 1.356 (95% CI 1.164-1.58), therapeutic. Filters were removed in 15.67% of prophylactic and 5.69% of therapeutic filter cases. Complication rates were higher with prophylactic procedures than with therapeutic procedures and typically exceeded 2% in the prophylactic group. Each form of filter placement was associated with increases in all-cause hospitalization (regression coefficient 0.295 [95% CI 0.093-0.498], prophylactic; 0.673 [95% CI 0.547-0.798], therapeutic) and readmissions (OR 2.444 [95% CI 1.298-4.602], prophylactic; 2.074 [95% CI 1.644-2.616], therapeutic). IVC filter placement in this managed care population was associated with increased use of anticoagulants and greater healthcare utilization compared to controls, low rates of retrieval, and notable rates of device-related complications, with effects especially pronounced in assessments of prophylactic filters. These findings underscore the need for appropriate use of IVC filters.

Social Risk Adjustment In The Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program: A Systematic Review And Implications For Policy.

Value-based payment programs adjust payments to providers based on spending, quality, or health outcomes. Concern that these programs penalize providers disproportionately serving vulnerable patients prompted calls to adjust performance measures for social risk factors. We reviewed fourteen studies of social risk adjustment in Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP), a value-based payment model that initially did not adjust for social risk factors but subsequently began to do so. Seven studies found that adding social risk factors to the program's base risk-adjustment model (which adjusts only for age, sex, and comorbidities) reduced differences in risk-adjusted readmissions and penalties between safety-net hospitals and other hospitals. Three studies found that peer grouping, the HRRP's current approach to social risk adjustment, reduced penalties among safety-net hospitals. Two studies found that differences in risk-adjusted readmissions and penalties were further narrowed when augmentation of the base model was combined with peer grouping. Two studies showed that it is possible to adjust for social risk factors without obscuring quality differences between hospitals. These findings support the use of social risk adjustment to improve provider payment equity and highlight opportunities to enhance social risk adjustment in value-based payment programs.

Health Care Utilization and Medical Cost Outcomes from a Digital Diabetes Prevention Program in a Medicare Advantage Population.

This study examined the effects of a digital diabetes prevention program (DPP) on health care costs and utilization among Medicare Advantage participants. Patients (n = 501) received access to a plan-sponsored, digitally-delivered DPP accessible through computer, tablet, or smartphone. Prior research demonstrated a 7.5% reduction in body weight at 12 months. A comparison group who did not participate in the DPP was constructed by matching on demographic, health plan, health status, and health care costs and utilization. The authors assessed effects on cost and utilization outcomes using difference-in-differences regressions, controlling for propensities to participate and engage in the DPP, in the 12 months prior to DPP enrollment and 24 months after. Though post-enrollment data showed trends in decreased drug spending and emergency department use, increased inpatient utilization, and no change in total nondrug costs or outpatient utilization, the findings did not reach statistical significance, potentially because of sample size. The population had low costs and utilization at baseline, which may be responsible for the lack of observed effects in the short time frame. This study demonstrates the challenges of studying the effectiveness of preventive programs in a population with low baseline costs and the importance of using a large enough sample and follow-up period, but remains an important contribution to exploring the effects of digital DPPs in a real-world sample of individuals who were eligible and willing to participate.

Discordance in Clinical Recommendations Regarding the Use of Imaging.

As physicians strive to provide evidence-based care, challenges arise if different entities disseminate divergent Appropriate Use Criteria (AUC) or clinical guidelines on the same topic. To characterize these challenges in one field, this study reviews the literature on comparisons of clinical recommendations regarding medical imaging. The PubMed database was searched for the years 2013-2018 for studies describing discordance among clinical recommendations regarding the performance of imaging. Of the 406 articles identified, 15 met the selection criteria: 8 qualitative and 7 quantitative. Reasons for discordance varied, with lack of evidence often cited. Quantitative studies often found that different decisions would be reached depending on the clinical recommendation followed. Nonetheless, quantitative studies also tended not to consider one set of recommendations superior to another. The findings of this review might help clinicians seek guidance more thoughtfully and could inform use of guidelines and AUC for quality improvement and clinical decision support.

The Association Between Use of Hypofractionation and Treatment Completion Among Recipients of Radiation Therapy Post-Mastectomy.

PURPOSE: Although there is some evidence to support the use of hypofractionated (HF) radiation therapy (RT) postmastectomy, it is not currently the standard of care. RT noncompletion and delayed completion have been shown to lead to inferior outcomes. This study assesses the association between the choice of an HF versus conventionally fractionated regimen and completion. METHODS AND MATERIALS: RT orders placed in 2016 and 2017 for patients with a national health plan, along with the associated claims, were extracted. Each order was assigned a target date for timely completion, as well as a date 30 days after the target, which was used to assess delayed completion. Univariate analyses and logistic regressions were conducted to test for an association between regimen and completion. A Poisson regression was used to examine the association between regimen and length of treatment delay among patients completing RT. RESULTS: Of the 743 orders meeting inclusion criteria, 56 (7.5%) were for HF. Unadjusted analyses found that the timely and delayed completion rates were significantly (P < .001) higher for patients receiving HF. The adjusted odds ratios (HF order versus CF order) were 3.96 (95% confidence interval, 2.23-7.01) for timely completion and 2.64 (95% confidence interval, 1.43-5.15) for completion within 30 days of the target. Among completers, an order for HF was significantly (P < .001) associated with less delay. CONCLUSIONS: When an HF regimen was ordered, patients were more likely to complete therapy without a delay, to complete therapy overall, and, if experiencing a delay, to experience a shorter delay.

Health Care Utilization and Pain Outcomes Following Early Imaging for Low Back Pain in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Professional societies have provided inconsistent guidance regarding whether older patients should receive early imaging for low back pain, in the absence of clinical indications. The study assesses the implications of early imaging by evaluating its association with downstream utilization in an elderly population. METHODS: Patients were included if they had a Medicare Advantage plan, had claims-based evidence of low back pain in 2014, and lacked conditions justifying early imaging. The outcomes examined were short-term, nonchronic, and chronic opioid use, steroid injections, and spinal surgery in the following 730 days, and persistent low back pain at 180 to 365 days. Morphine dose equivalents of opioid use was used as a measure of intensity. Logistic and γ regressions were used to assess the association between imaging in the first 6 weeks and the outcomes. RESULTS: Among the 57,293 patients meeting inclusion criteria, the mean age was 71.2, and 26,606 (46.4%) received early imaging. Early imaging was associated with increased adjusted odds of short-term (odds ratio [OR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.28), nonchronic (OR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.69 to 1.88), and chronic (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.18) opioid use, as well as steroid injections (OR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.28 to 2.85) and spinal surgery (OR, 3.40; 95% CI, 2.97 to 3.90). Patients that received early imaging were more likely to experience persistent pain (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.14) and used significantly more morphine dose equivalents if they had nonchronic opioid use. CONCLUSIONS: Early imaging for low back pain in older individuals was common, and was associated with greater utilization of downstream services and persistent pain.

Alternative Payment Models in Medical Oncology: Assessing Quality-of-Care Outcomes Under Partial Capitation.

BACKGROUND: Alternative payment models (APMs) in healthcare are emerging that reward quality of care over quantity of services. Most bundled payment programs that are described in published studies are related to episodes for a surgical inpatient hospital stay. With outpatient services, monthly capitated payments are an alternative to bundled payments for specialty services. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of a capitated contractual arrangement between a primary care physician group and an oncology clinic group with the quality of care received. METHODS: We evaluated the effect of an oncology group's transition from a fee-for-service (FFS) arrangement to a partial-capitated-payment model with a primary care group. We compared outcomes for patients who received treatment after implementation of the new arrangement (ie, postcontract capitated group) with outcomes of patients receiving treatment before the change (ie, precontract capitated group). In addition, we conducted a parallel analysis of patients from a population that was not affected by the contract to assess temporal effects (ie, postcontract FFS group vs precontract FFS group). All patients were enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans of a single health plan (ie, Humana), and outcomes were measured using claims data provided by that company. Patients in the 2 precontract groups received treatment between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2011; patients in the 2 postcontract groups received treatment between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2013. Age- and sex-adjusted all-cause hospitalization, complications from cancer treatment, and ambulance transfers during 6 months of follow-up were evaluated. RESULTS: In the population subject to the partial-capitated-payment model, the postcontract group (N = 305) was younger than the precontract group (N = 165). In a subset of patients in the 2 capitated groups who had Deyo-Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) RxRisk scores, the postcontract capitated group had significantly higher CCI scores. Adjusted odds ratios for the postcontract capitated group versus the precontract capitated group showed no difference in the likelihood that any of the outcomes would occur. However, the mean number of chemotherapy-related complications and ambulance transports were greater postcontract. In the parallel analysis of the population not affected by the new payment arrangement, no differences were found between the pre- and postcontract groups. This suggests that temporal changes potentially affecting patients in the capitated and FFS populations would not have influenced postcontract outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: After the implementation of partial-capitated payments for medical oncology services in the oncology practice, the likelihood of a patient experiencing at least 1 event of a specific adverse outcome did not change; however, the average number of some adverse events did increase, which may in part be explained by a higher level of underlying morbidity in the postcontract group. The overall findings of this study suggest that quality of care was not compromised in this APM.

Determinants of outcomes following outpatient placement of implantable cardioverter defibrillators in a Medicare Advantage population.

BACKGROUND: Recipients of ICD are likely to have several risk factors that could interfere with successful use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs). HYPOTHESIS: Age, sex, and factors indicated in claims are associated with one-year mortality and complications after ICD placement. METHODS: Adult Medicare Advantage patients who underwent outpatient ICD implantation from January 2014 to September 2015 were included. Age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), prior year hospitalization and emergency department (ED) visit, diabetes, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and indicators of the need for pacing were evaluated as risk factors. Mortality and device-related complications (lead and nonlead) were assessed at one-year post-procedure using Kaplan-Meier and Cox Proportional Hazard analysis. RESULTS: Among 8450 patients who underwent implantation, 1-year event-free survival was 80.1%, based on an overall composite measure of complications and mortality. Adjusted survival analysis showed that age ≥ 65, male sex, incremental increase in CCI, heart failure, prior year hospitalization, ED visit, and prior year pacing procedure were significant predictors of mortality. Age ≥ 65, male sex, and prior year hospitalization were significant predictors of a composite measure of device-related complications. CCI and prior hospitalization were significant predictors of a composite measure of any adverse outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest most patients in an older population do not experience adverse outcomes in the year following ICD implantation. The risk of mortality may be greater in men, patients over the age of 65, and patients with greater general morbidity, heart failure, or a history of a pacing procedure.

An exploration of the association between ischemic etiology and the likelihood of heart failure hospitalization following cardiac resynchronization therapy.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial scarring resulting from cardiomyopathy with ischemic etiology may interfere with effective lead placement during implantation of multi-lead cardioverter-defibrillators for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT-D). Extensive scarring is known to be associated with poorer physiological and survival outcomes in patients who undergo CRT-D. HYPOTHESIS: Ischemic CRT-D recipients respond as well as nonischemic recipients, using hospital admission for heart failure (HF) as a measure of response. METHODS: Patients who underwent CRT-D between February 1, 2013, and February 1, 2014, were identified in an insurer's claims. Inclusion required 1 year of enrollment pre- and post-CRT-D. The sample was divided into nonischemic and ischemic groups, and a subset of the ischemic group with a history of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was identified. The likelihood of HF hospital admissions in the year before and after CRT-D was computed for each group, as well as for the subset of patients with HF admissions prior to CRT-D. RESULTS: A significant (P = 0.02) association was found between ischemic etiology and the post-CRT-D HF admission likelihood. No association was found between history of STEMI vs nonischemic status and likelihood of post-CRT-D HF admission. All groups had significantly lower risk of HF admissions after CRT-D. None of the comparisons involving only patients with a HF hospitalization in the year prior to CRT-D were significant. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with nonischemic etiology were significantly less likely to experience a HF admission after CRT-D, but the risk of HF admission improved significantly in all groups after CRT-D.

Mortality Differences Between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage: A Risk-Adjusted Assessment Using Claims Data.

Medicare Advantage (MA) has grown rapidly since the Affordable Care Act; nearly one-third of Medicare beneficiaries now choose MA. An assessment of the comparative value of the 2 options is confounded by an apparent selection bias favoring MA, as reflected in mortality differences. Previous assessments have been hampered by lack of access to claims diagnosis data for the MA population. An indirect comparison of mortality as an outcome variable was conducted by modeling mortality on a traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare data set, applying the model to an MA data set, and then evaluating the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality in the MA data set. The mortality model adjusted for clinical conditions and demographic factors. Model development considered the effect of potentially greater coding intensity in the MA population. Further analysis calculated ratios for subpopulations. Predicted, risk-adjusted mortality was lower in the MA population than in FFS Medicare. However, the ratio of actual-to-predicted mortality (0.80) suggested that the individuals in the MA data set were less likely to die than would be predicted had those individuals been enrolled in FFS Medicare. Differences between actual and predicted mortality were particularly pronounced in low income (dual eligibility), nonwhite race, high morbidity, and Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) subgroups. After controlling for baseline clinical risk as represented by claims diagnosis data, mortality differences favoring MA over FFS Medicare persisted, particularly in vulnerable subgroups and HMO plans. These findings suggest that differences in morbidity do not fully explain differences in mortality between the 2 programs.