Study protocol for a multicenter randomised controlled trial on the (cost)effectiveness of biopsy combined with same-session MR-guided LITT versus biopsy alone in patients with primary irresectable glioblastoma (EMITT trial).

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common primary, malignant brain tumour with a 5-year survival of 5%. If possible, a glioblastoma is resected and further treated with chemoradiation therapy (CRT), but resection is not feasible in about 30% of cases. Current standard of care in these cases is a biopsy followed by CRT. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging-guided laser interstitial thermal therapy (LITT) has been suggested as a minimally invasive alternative when surgery is not feasible. However, high-quality evidence directly comparing LITT with standard of care is lacking, precluding any conclusions on (cost-)effectiveness. We therefore propose a multicenter randomized controlled study to assess the (cost-)effectiveness of MR-guided LITT as compared to current standard of care (EMITT trial). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The EMITT trial will be a multicenter pragmatic randomized controlled trial in the Netherlands. Seven Dutch hospitals will participate in this study. In total 238 patients will be randomized with 1:1 allocation to receive either biopsy combined with same-session MR-guided LITT therapy followed by CRT or the current standard of care being biopsy followed by CRT. The primary outcomes will be health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) (non-inferiority) using EORTC QLQ-C30 + BN20 scores at 5 months after randomization and overall survival (superiority). Secondary outcomes comprise cost-effectiveness (healthcare and societal perspective) and HR-QoL of life over an 18-month time horizon, progression free survival, tumour response, disease specific survival, longitudinal effects, effects on adjuvant treatment, ablation percentage and complication rates. DISCUSSION: The EMITT trial will be the first RCT on the effectiveness of LITT in patients with glioblastoma as compared with current standard of care. Together with the Dutch Brain Tumour Patient association, we hypothesize that LITT may improve overall survival without substantially affecting patients' quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05318612).

MR-guided LITT therapy in patients with primary irresectable glioblastoma: a prospective, controlled pilot study.

PURPOSE: Laser interstitial thermal therapy (LITT) is increasingly being used in the treatment of brain tumors, whereas high-quality evidence of its effectiveness is lacking. This pilot examined the feasibility of conducting a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in patients with irresectable newly diagnosed glioblastoma (nGBM), and generated data on technical feasibility and safety. METHODS: We included patients with irresectable nGBM with KPS ≥ 70 and feasible trajectories to ablate ≥ 70% of the tumor volume. Patients were initially randomized to receive either biopsy combined with LITT or biopsy alone, followed by chemoradiation (CRT). Randomization was stopped after 9 patients as the feasibility endpoint with respect to willingness to be randomized was met. Main endpoints were feasibility of performing an RCT, technical feasibility of LITT and safety. Follow-up was 3 months. RESULTS: A total of 15 patients were included, of which 10 patients received a biopsy followed by LITT and 5 patients a biopsy. Most patients were able to complete the follow-up procedures (93% clinical, 86% questionnaires, 78% MRI). Patients were planned within 3 weeks after consultation (median 12 days, range 8-16) and no delay was observed in referring patients for CRT (median 37 days, range 28-61). Two CD ≥ 3 complications occurred in the LITT arm and none in the biopsy arm. CONCLUSION: An RCT to study the effectiveness of LITT in patients with an irresectable nGBM seems feasible with acceptable initial safety data. The findings from this pilot study helped to further refine the design of a larger full-scale multicenter RCT in the Netherlands. Protocol and study identifier: The current study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov (EMITT pilot study, NTR: NCT04596930).

Dealing With Uncertainty in Early Health Technology Assessment: An Exploration of Methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty.

OBJECTIVES: In early stages, the consequences of innovations are often unknown or deeply uncertain, which complicates early health economic modeling (EHEM). The field of decision making under deep uncertainty uses exploratory modeling (EM) in situations when the system model, input probabilities/distributions, and consequences are unknown or debated. Our aim was to evaluate the use of EM for early evaluation of health technologies. METHODS: We applied EM and EHEM to an early evaluation of minimally invasive endoscopy-guided surgery (MIS) for acute intracerebral hemorrhage and compared these models to derive differences, merits, and drawbacks of EM. RESULTS: EHEM and EM differ fundamentally in how uncertainty is handled. Where in EHEM the focus is on the value of technology, while accounting for the uncertainty, EM focuses on the uncertainty. EM aims to find robust strategies, which give relatively good outcomes over a wide range of plausible futures. This was reflected in our case study. EHEM provided cost-effectiveness thresholds for MIS effectiveness, assuming fixed MIS costs. EM showed that a policy with a population in which most patients had severe intracerebral hemorrhage was most robust, regardless of MIS effectiveness, complications, and costs. CONCLUSIONS: EHEM and EM were found to complement each other. EM seems most suited in the very early phases of innovation to explore existing uncertainty and many potential strategies. EHEM seems most useful to optimize promising strategies, yet EM methods are complex and might only add value when stakeholders are willing to consider multiple solutions to a problem and adopt flexible research and adoption strategies.

Care Pathway Analysis to Inform the Earliest Stages of Technology Development: Scoping Oncological Indications in Need of Innovation.

OBJECTIVES: Identifying unmet needs for innovative solutions across disease contexts is challenging but important for directing funding and research efforts and informing early-stage decisions during the innovation process. Our aim was to study the merits of care pathway analysis to scope disease contexts and guide the development of innovative devices. We used oncologic surgery as a case study, for which many intraoperative imaging techniques are under development. METHODS: Care pathway analysis is a mapping process, which produces graphical maps of clinical pathways using important outcomes and subsequent consequences. We performed care pathway analyses for glioblastoma, breast, bladder, prostate, renal, pancreatic, and oral cavity cancer. Differences between a "perfect" care pathway and the current care pathway in terms of percentage of inadequate margins, associated recurrences, quality of life, and 5-year overall survival were calculated to determine unmet needs. Data from The Netherlands Cancer Registry and literature were used. RESULTS: Care pathway analysis showed that highest percentages of inadequate margins were found in oral cavity cancer (72.5%), glioblastoma (48.7%), and pancreatic cancer (43.9%). Inadequate margins showed the strongest increase in recurrences in cancer of oral cavity, and bladder (absolute increases of 43.5% and 41.2%, respectively). Impact on survival was largest for bladder and oral cavity cancer with positive margins. CONCLUSIONS: Care pathway analysis provides overviews of current clinical paths in multiple indications. Disease contexts can be compared via effectiveness gaps that show the potential need for innovative solutions. This information can be used as basis for stakeholder involvement processes to prioritize care pathways in need of innovation.

Antibiotics for acute otitis media in children.

BACKGROUND: Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common diseases in childhood for which antibiotics are commonly prescribed; a systematic review reported a pooled prevalence of 85.6% in high-income countries. This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in the Cochrane Library in 1997 and updated in 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2015. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of antibiotics for children with AOM. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Current Contents, CINAHL, LILACS and two trial registers. The date of the search was 14 February 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials comparing 1) antimicrobial drugs with placebo, and 2) immediate antibiotic treatment with expectant observation (including delayed antibiotic prescribing) in children with AOM. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened trials for inclusion and extracted data using the standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. Our primary outcomes were: 1) pain at various time points (24 hours, two to three days, four to seven days, 10 to 14 days), and 2) adverse effects likely to be related to the use of antibiotics. Secondary outcomes were: 1) abnormal tympanometry findings, 2) tympanic membrane perforation, 3) contralateral otitis (in unilateral cases), 4) AOM recurrences, 5) serious complications related to AOM and 6) long-term effects (including the number of parent-reported AOM symptom episodes, antibiotic prescriptions and health care utilisation as assessed at least one year after randomisation). We used the GRADE approach to rate the overall certainty of evidence for each outcome of interest. MAIN RESULTS: Antibiotics versus placebo We included 13 trials (3401 children and 3938 AOM episodes) from high-income countries, which we assessed at generally low risk of bias. Antibiotics do not reduce pain at 24 hours (risk ratio (RR) 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 1.01; 5 trials, 1394 children; high-certainty evidence), or at four to seven days (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.14; 7 trials, 1264 children), but result in almost a third fewer children having pain at two to three days (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.88; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 20; 7 trials, 2320 children; high-certainty evidence), and likely result in two-thirds fewer having pain at 10 to 12 days (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.66; NNTB 7; 1 trial, 278 children; moderate-certainty evidence). Antibiotics increase the risk of adverse events such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.63; number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) 14; 8 trials, 2107 children; high-certainty evidence). Antibiotics reduce the risk of children having abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96; NNTB 11; 7 trials, 2138 children), slightly reduce the risk of experiencing tympanic membrane perforations (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.89; NNTB 33; 5 trials, 1075 children) and halve the risk of contralateral otitis episodes (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.95; NNTB 11; 4 trials, 906 children). However, antibiotics do not reduce the risk of abnormal tympanometry findings at six to eight weeks (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.13; 3 trials, 953 children) and at three months (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.34; 3 trials, 809 children) or late AOM recurrences (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.11; 6 trials, 2200 children). Severe complications were rare, and the evidence suggests that serious complications do not differ between children treated with either antibiotics or placebo. Immediate antibiotics versus expectant observation We included six trials (1556 children) from high-income countries. The evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may result in a reduction of pain at two to three days (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.79; NNTB 8; 1 trial, 396 children; low-certainty evidence), but probably do not reduce the risk of pain at three to seven days (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.12; 4 trials, 959 children; moderate-certainty evidence), and may not reduce the risk of pain at 11 to 14 days (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.10; 1 trial, 247 children; low-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics increase the risk of vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.51; NNTH 10; 3 trials, 946 children; high-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics probably do not reduce the proportion of children with abnormal tympanometry findings at four weeks and evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may not reduce the risk of tympanic membrane perforation and AOM recurrences. No serious complications occurred in either group. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review reveals that antibiotics probably have no effect on pain at 24 hours, a slight effect on pain in the days following and only a modest effect on the number of children with tympanic perforations, contralateral otitis episodes and abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks compared with placebo in children with AOM. In high-income countries, most cases of AOM spontaneously remit without complications. The benefits of antibiotics must be weighed against the possible harms: for every 14 children treated with antibiotics, one child experienced an adverse event (such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash) that would not have occurred if antibiotics were withheld. For most children with mild disease in high-income countries, an expectant observational approach seems justified. Therefore, clinical management should emphasise advice about adequate analgesia and the limited role for antibiotics.

Ventilation tubes (grommets) for otitis media with effusion (OME) in children.

BACKGROUND: Otitis media with effusion (OME) is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear cavity, common amongst young children. It may cause hearing loss which, when persistent, may lead to developmental delay, social difficulty and poor quality of life. Management includes watchful waiting, autoinflation, medical and surgical treatment. Insertion of ventilation tubes has often been used as the preferred treatment. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effects (benefits and harms) of ventilation tubes (grommets) for OME in children. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane ENT Register, CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, ICTRP and additional sources for published and unpublished trials on 20 January 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs in children (6 months to 12 years) with OME for ≥ 3 months. We included studies that compared ventilation tube (VT) insertion with five comparators: no treatment, watchful waiting (ventilation tubes inserted later, if required), myringotomy, hearing aids and other non-surgical treatments. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were determined following a multi-stakeholder prioritisation exercise and were: 1) hearing; 2) OME-specific quality of life; 3) persistent tympanic membrane perforation (as a severe adverse effect of the surgery). Secondary outcomes were: 1) persistence of OME; 2) other adverse effects (including tympanosclerosis, VT blockage and pain); 3) receptive language skills; 4) speech development; 5) cognitive development; 6) psychosocial skills; 7) listening skills; 8) generic health-related quality of life; 9) parental stress; 10) vestibular function; 11) episodes of acute otitis media. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence for key outcomes. Although we included all measures of hearing assessment, the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing was our preferred method, due to challenges in interpreting the results of mean hearing thresholds. MAIN RESULTS: We included 19 RCTs (2888 children). We considered most of the evidence to be very uncertain, due to wide confidence intervals for the effect estimates, few participants, and a risk of performance and detection bias. Here we report our key outcomes at the longest reported follow-up. There were some limitations to the evidence. No studies investigated the comparison of ventilation tubes versus hearing aids. We did not identify any data on disease-specific quality of life; however, many studies were conducted before the development of specific tools to assess this in otitis media. Short-acting ventilation tubes were used in most studies and thus specific data on the use of long-acting VTs is limited. Finally, we did not identify specific data on the effects of VTs in children at increased risk of OME (e.g. with craniofacial syndromes). Ventilation tubes versus no treatment (four studies) The odds ratio (OR) for a return to normal hearing after 12 months was 1.13 with VTs (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46 to 2.74; 54% versus 51%; 1 study, 72 participants; very low-certainty evidence). At six months, VTs may lead to a large reduction in persistent OME (risk ratio (RR) 0.30, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.65; 20.4% versus 68.0%; 1 study, 54 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the chance of persistent tympanic membrane perforation with VTs at 12 months (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.91; 8.3% versus 9.7%; 1 RCT, 144 participants). Early ventilation tubes versus watchful waiting (six studies) There was little to no difference in the proportion of children whose hearing returned to normal after 8 to 10 years (i.e. by the age of 9 to 13 years) (RR for VTs 0.98, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.03; 93% versus 95%; 1 study, 391 participants; very low-certainty evidence). VTs may also result in little to no difference in the risk of persistent OME after 18 months to 6 years (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.74; 15% versus 12%; 3 studies, 584 participants; very low-certainty evidence). We were unable to pool data on persistent perforation. One study showed that VTs may increase the risk of perforation after a follow-up duration of 3.75 years (RR 3.65, 95% CI 0.41 to 32.38; 1 study, 391 participants; very low-certainty evidence) but the actual number of children who develop persistent perforation may be low, as demonstrated by another study (1.26%; 1 study, 635 ears; very low-certainty evidence). Ventilation tubes versus non-surgical treatment (one study) One study compared VTs to six months of antibiotics (sulphisoxazole). No data were available on return to normal hearing, but final hearing thresholds were reported. At four months, the mean difference was -5.98 dB HL lower (better) for those receiving VTs, but the evidence is very uncertain (95% CI -9.21 to -2.75; 1 study, 125 participants; very low-certainty evidence). No evidence was identified regarding persistent OME. VTs may result in a low risk of persistent perforation at 18 months of follow-up (no events reported; narrative synthesis of 1 study, 60 participants; low-certainty evidence). Ventilation tubes versus myringotomy (nine studies) We are uncertain whether VTs may slightly increase the likelihood of returning to normal hearing at 6 to 12 months, since the confidence intervals were wide and included the possibility of no effect (RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.59 to 2.53; 74% versus 64%; 2 studies, 132 participants; very low-certainty evidence). After six months, persistent OME may be reduced for those who receive VTs compared to laser myringotomy, but the evidence is very uncertain (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.38; 1 study, 272 participants; very low-certainty evidence). At six months, the risk of persistent perforation is probably similar with the use of VTs or laser myringotomy (narrative synthesis of 6 studies, 581 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There may be small short- and medium-term improvements in hearing and persistence of OME with VTs, but it is unclear whether these persist after longer follow-up. The RCTs included do not allow us to say when (or how much) VTs improve hearing in any specific child. However, interpretation of the evidence is difficult: many children in the control groups recover spontaneously or receive VTs during follow-up, VTs may block or extrude, and OME may recur. The limited evidence in this review also affects the generalisability/applicability of our findings to situations involving children with underlying conditions (e.g. craniofacial syndromes) or the use of long-acting tubes. Consequently, RCTs may not be the best way to determine whether an intervention is likely to be effective in any individual child. Instead, we must better understand the different OME phenotypes to target interventions to children who will benefit most, and avoid over-treating when spontaneous resolution is likely.

The value of reducing arthroscopic partial meniscectomy in the treatment of degenerative meniscus tears: a budget impact analysis.

AIMS: Numerous studies have shown that arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM) is not (cost-) effective in patients with symptoms attributed to a degenerative meniscus tear. We aimed to assess the budget impact of reducing APM in routine clinical practice in this population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A patient-level state transition model was developed to simulate patients recently diagnosed with a degenerative meniscus tear. Three strategies were compared: "current guideline" (i.e., postpone surgery to at least 3 months after diagnosis), "APM at any time" (i.e., APM available directly after diagnosis), and "nonsurgical" (i.e., APM no longer performed). Total societal costs over 5 years were calculated to determine the budget impact. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted to address uncertainty. RESULTS: The average cost per patient over 5 years were EUR 5,077, EUR 4,577, and EUR 4,218, for the "APM at any time," "current guideline," and "nonsurgical" strategy, respectively. Removing APM from the treatment mix (i.e., 30,000 patients per year) in the Netherlands, resulted in a reduction in health care expenditures of EUR 54 million (95 percent confidence interval [CI] EUR 38 million-EUR 70 million) compared to the "current guideline strategy" and EUR 129 million (95 percent CI EUR 102 million-EUR 156 million) compared to the "APM at any time" strategy. Sensitivity analyses showed that uncertainty did not alter our conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial costs can be saved when APM is no longer performed to treat symptoms attributed to degenerative meniscus tears in the Netherlands. It is therefore recommended to further reduce the use of APM to treat degenerative meniscus tears.

Arthroscopic partial meniscectomy for the degenerative meniscus tear: a comparison of patients included in RCTs and prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Concerns exist regarding the generalizability of results from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM) to treat degenerative meniscus tears. It has been suggested that study populations are not representative of subjects selected for surgery in daily clinical practice. Therefore, we aimed to compare patients included in trials and prospective cohort studies that received APM for a degenerative meniscus tear. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual participant data from 4 RCTs and 2 cohort studies undergoing APM were collected. 1,970 patients were analyzed: 605 patients included in RCTs and 1,365 included in the cohorts. We compared patient and disease characteristics, knee pain, overall knee function, and health-related quality of life at baseline between the RCT and cohort groups using standardized differences, ratios comparing the variance of continuous covariates, and graphical methods such as quantile-quantile plots, side-by-side boxplots, and non-parametric density plots. RESULTS: Differences between RCT and the cohort were observed primarily in age (younger patients in the cohort; standardized difference: 0.32) and disease severity, with the RCT group having more severe symptoms (standardized difference: 0.38). While knee pain, overall knee function, and quality of life generally showed minimal differences between the 2 groups, it is noteworthy that the largest observed difference was in knee pain, where the cohort group scored 7 points worse (95% confidence interval 5-9, standardized difference: 0.29). CONCLUSION: Patients in RCTs were largely representative of those in cohort studies regarding baseline scores, though variations in age and disease severity were observed. Younger patients with less severe osteoarthritis were more common in the cohort; however, trial participants still appear to be broadly representative of the target population.

Auditory brainstem response prior to MRI compared to standalone MRI in the detection of vestibular schwannoma: A modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of auditory brainstem response prior to MRI (ABR-MRI) compared to standalone MRI to diagnose vestibular schwannoma. DESIGN: A state transition model was developed to simulate costs and effects (quality-adjusted life years [QALY]) for both diagnostic strategies for patients suspected of a vestibular schwannoma. Model input was derived from literature, hospital databases and expert opinions. Scenario and sensitivity analyses addressed model uncertainty. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon, ABR-MRI resulted in a limited cost-saving of €68 or €98 per patient (dependent on MRI sequence) and a health loss of 0.005 QALYs over standalone MRI. ABR-MRI, however, did miss patients with other important pathology (2% of the population) that would have been detected when using standalone MRI. In total, €14 203 or €19 550 could be saved per lost QALY if ABR-MRI was used instead of standalone MRI. The results were sensitive to the detection rate of vestibular schwannoma and health-related quality of life of missed patients. CONCLUSION: The cost-saving with ABR-MRI does not seem to outweigh the number of missed patients with VS and other important pathologies that would have been detected when using standalone MRI.

Novel imaging techniques for intraoperative margin assessment in surgical oncology: A systematic review.

Inadequate margins continue to occur frequently in patients who undergo surgical resection of a tumor, suggesting that current intraoperative methods are not sufficiently reliable in determining the margin status. This clinical demand has inspired the development of many novel imaging techniques that could help surgeons with intraoperative margin assessment. This systematic review provides an overview of novel imaging techniques for intraoperative margin assessment in surgical oncology, and reports on their technical properties, feasibility in clinical practice and diagnostic accuracy. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane library were systematically searched (2013-2018) for studies reporting on imaging techniques for intraoperative margin assessment. Patient and study characteristics, technical properties, feasibility characteristics and diagnostic accuracy were extracted. This systematic review identified 134 studies that investigated and developed 16 groups of techniques for intraoperative margin assessment: fluorescence, advanced microscopy, ultrasound, specimen radiography, optical coherence tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, elastic scattering spectroscopy, bio-impedance, X-ray computed tomography, mass spectrometry, Raman spectroscopy, nuclear medicine imaging, terahertz imaging, photoacoustic imaging, hyperspectral imaging and pH measurement. Most studies were in early developmental stages (IDEAL 1 or 2a, n = 98); high-quality stage 2b and 3 studies were rare. None of the techniques was found to be clearly superior in demonstrating high feasibility as well as high diagnostic accuracy. In conclusion, the field of imaging techniques for intraoperative margin assessment is highly evolving. This review provides a unique overview of the opportunities and limitations of the currently available imaging techniques.

Neurosurgical Intervention for Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: The effect of surgical treatment for supratentorial spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and whether it is modified by key baseline characteristics and timing remains uncertain. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of surgical treatment of supratentorial spontaneous ICH aimed at clot removal. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases up to February 21, 2019. Primary outcome was good functional outcome at follow-up; secondary outcomes were death and serious adverse events. We analyzed all types of surgery combined and minimally invasive approaches separately. We pooled risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals and assessed the modifying effect of age, Glasgow Coma Scale, hematoma volume, and timing of surgery with meta-regression analysis. RESULTS: We included 21 studies with 4,145 patients; 4 (19%) were of the highest quality. Risk ratio of good functional outcome after any type of surgery was 1.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22-1.60, I2 = 46%, 20 studies), and after minimally invasive surgery it was 1.47 (95% CI = 1.26-1.72, I2 = 47%, 12 studies). For death, the risk ratio for any type of surgery was 0.77 (95% CI = 0.68-0.85, I2 = 23%, 21 studies), and for minimally invasive surgery it was 0.68 (95% CI = 0.56-0.83, I2 = 14%, 13 studies). Serious adverse events were reported infrequently. Surgery seemed more effective when performed sooner after symptom onset (p = 0.04, 12 studies). Age, Glasgow Coma Scale, and hematoma volume did not modify the effect of surgery. INTERPRETATION: Surgical treatment of supratentorial spontaneous ICH may be beneficial, in particular with minimally invasive procedures and when performed soon after symptom onset. Further well-designed randomized trials are needed to demonstrate whether (minimally invasive) surgery improves functional outcome after ICH and to determine the optimal time window of the treatment after symptom onset. ANN NEUROL 2020;88:239-250.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of three approaches for lymph node assessment in patients with low- and intermediate-risk endometrial cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of sentinel lymph node mapping compared to risk factor assessment and routine full lymph node dissection for the assessment of lymph nodes in patients with low- and intermediate-risk endometrioid endometrial cancer. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was designed to compare three lymph node assessment strategies in terms of costs and effects: 1) sentinel lymph node mapping; 2) post-operative risk factor assessment (adjuvant therapy based on clinical and histological risk factors); 3) full lymph node dissection. Input data were derived from systematic literature searches and expert opinion. QALYs were used as measure of effectiveness. The model was built from a healthcare perspective and the impact of uncertainty was assessed with sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Base-case analysis showed that sentinel lymph node mapping was the most effective strategy for lymph node assessment in patients with low- and intermediate-risk endometrial cancer. Compared to risk factor assessment it was more costly, but the incremental cost effectiveness ratio stayed below a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 with a maximum of €9637/QALY. Sentinel lymph node mapping was dominant compared to lymph node dissection since it was more effective and less costly. Sensitivity analyses showed that the outcome of the model was robust to changes in input values. With a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 sentinel lymph node mapping remained cost-effective in at least 74.3% of the iterations. CONCLUSION: Sentinel lymph node mapping is the most cost-effective strategy to guide the need for adjuvant therapy in patients with low and intermediate risk endometrioid endometrial cancer.

A tutorial on individualized treatment effect prediction from randomized trials with a binary endpoint.

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary outcome, these predictions of absolute individualized treatment effect require knowledge of the individual's risk without treatment and incorporation of a possibly differential treatment effect (ie, varying with patient characteristics). In this article, we lay out the causal structure of individualized treatment effect in terms of potential outcomes and describe the required assumptions that underlie a causal interpretation of its prediction. Subsequently, we describe regression models and model estimation techniques that can be used to move from average to more individualized treatment effect predictions. We focus mainly on logistic regression-based methods that are both well-known and naturally provide the required probabilistic estimates. We incorporate key components from both causal inference and prediction research to arrive at individualized treatment effect predictions. While the separate components are well known, their successful amalgamation is very much an ongoing field of research. We cut the problem down to its essentials in the setting of a randomized trial, discuss the importance of a clear definition of the estimand of interest, provide insight into the required assumptions, and give guidance with respect to modeling and estimation options. Simulated data illustrate the potential of different modeling options across scenarios that vary both average treatment effect and treatment effect heterogeneity. Two applied examples illustrate individualized treatment effect prediction in randomized trial data.

The Use of Decision Analytic Modeling in the Evaluation of Surgical Innovations: A Scoping Review.

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this review was to map how decision analytic models are used in surgical innovation (in which research phase, with what aim) and to understand how challenges related to the assessment of surgical interventions are incorporated. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for studies published in 2018. We included original articles using a decision analytic model to compare surgical strategies. We included modeling studies of surgical innovations. General, innovation, and modeling characteristics were extracted, as were outcomes, recommendations, and handling of challenges related to the assessment of surgical interventions (learning curve, incremental innovation, dynamic pricing, quality variation, organizational impact). RESULTS: We included 46 studies. The number of studies increased with each research phase, from 4% (n = 2) in the preclinical phase to 40% (n = 20) in phase 3 studies. Eighty-one studies were excluded because they investigated established surgical procedures, indicating that modeling is predominantly applied after the innovation process. Regardless of the research stage, the aim to determine cost-effectiveness was most frequently identified (n = 40, 87%), whereas exploratory aims (eg, exploring when a strategy becomes cost-effective) were less common (n = 9, 20%). Most challenges related to the assessment of surgical interventions were rarely incorporated in models (eg, learning curve [n = 1, 2%], organizational impact [n = 2, 4%], and incremental innovation [n = 1, 2%]), except for dynamic pricing (n = 10, 22%) and quality variation (n = 6, 13%). CONCLUSIONS: In surgical innovation, modeling is predominantly used in later research stages to assess cost-effectiveness. The exploratory use of modeling seems still largely overlooked in surgery; therefore, the opportunity to inform research and development may not be optimally used.

Development of a model to predict vestibular schwannoma growth: An opportunity to introduce new wait and scan strategies.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a prediction model to predict vestibular schwannoma (VS) growth for patients in a wait and scan (W&S) strategy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary hospital (Radboud university medical center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands). PARTICIPANTS: Patients with unilateral VS, entering a W&S strategy and at least one follow-up MRI available. Data on demographics, symptoms, audiometry and MRI characteristics at time of diagnosis were collected from medical records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Following multiple imputation, a multivariable Cox regression model was used to select variables, using VS growth (≥2 mm) as outcome. Decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed to compare the model to the current strategy. RESULTS: Of 1217 analysed VS patients, 653 (53.7%) showed growth during follow-up. Balance complaints (HR 1.57 (95% CI: 1.31-1.88)) and tinnitus complaints in the affected ear (HR 1.36 (95% CI: 1.15-1.61)), Koos grade (Koos 1 is reference, Koos 2 HR 1.03 (95% CI: 0.80-1.31), Koos 3 HR 1.55 (95% CI: 1.16-2.06), Koos 4 HR 2.18 (95% CI: 1.60-2.96)), time since onset of symptoms (IQR HR 0.83 (95% CI: 0.77-0.88) and intrameatal diameter on MRI (IQR HR 1.67 (95% CI: 1.42-1.96)) were selected as significant predictors. The model's discrimination (Harrell's C) was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.67-0.71), and calibration was good. DCA showed that the model has a higher net benefit than the current strategy for probabilities of VS growth of >12%, 15% and 21% for the first consecutive 3 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with balance and tinnitus complaints, a higher Koos grade, short duration of symptoms and a larger intrameatal diameter at time of diagnosis have a higher probability of future VS growth. After external validation, this model may be used to inform patients about their prognosis, individualise the W&S strategy and improve (cost-)effectiveness.

Septoplasty with or without concurrent turbinate surgery versus non-surgical management for nasal obstruction in adults with a deviated septum: a pragmatic, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Septoplasty (surgical correction of the deviated nasal septum) is the most frequently performed ear, nose, and throat operation in adults, but no randomised controlled trials or non-randomised comparative studies on the effectiveness of septoplasty have been published. Consequently, health-care providers, health insurance companies, and policy makers are concerned about the effectiveness of the procedure. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of septoplasty for nasal obstruction in adults with a deviated septum. METHODS: We did this open, multicentre, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial in 16 secondary and two tertiary referral hospitals in the Netherlands. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with nasal obstruction, a deviated septum, and an indication to have septoplasty done were randomly allocated (1:1) to receive either septoplasty with or without concurrent turbinate surgery or non-surgical management. Patients were stratified by sex, age (<35 years or ≥35 years), and deviation severity (mild, moderate, or severe). The primary outcome was health-related quality of life, measured with the validated Glasgow Health Status Inventory at 12 months. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with the Netherlands Trial Register, number NTR3868. FINDINGS: Between Sept 2, 2013, and Dec 12, 2016, we randomly assigned 203 participants to receive either septoplasty with or without concurrent turbinate surgery (n=102) or non-surgical management (n=101). 189 participants were analysed at 12 months. At 12 months, mean score on the Glasgow Health Status Inventory of patients assigned to septoplasty was 72·2 (SD 12·2) and for those assigned to non-surgical management was 63·9 (SD 14·5, mean difference 8·3 [95% CI 4·5-12·1], favouring septoplasty). Septal abscess occurred in one surgical patient and septal perforation in two surgical patients. No side-effects of nasal medication were reported. INTERPRETATION: Septoplasty is more effective than non-surgical management for nasal obstruction in adults with a deviated septum. This effect was sustained up to 24 months of follow-up. FUNDING: The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw).

Correction to: Cost-effectiveness of rule-based immunoprophylaxis against respiratory syncytial virus infections in preterm infants.

The name of the co-author Wendy J. Ungar was inadvertently omitted on the original published article. Her name and affiliation have now been added to the author list.

Totally minimally invasive esophagectomy versus hybrid minimally invasive esophagectomy: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Minimally invasive esophagectomy is increasingly performed for the treatment of esophageal cancer, but it is unclear whether hybrid minimally invasive esophagectomy (HMIE) or totally minimally invasive esophagectomy (TMIE) should be preferred. The objective of this study was to perform a meta-analysis of studies comparing HMIE with TMIE. A systematic literature search was performed in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. Articles comparing HMIE and TMIE were included. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used for critical appraisal of methodological quality. The primary outcome was pneumonia. Sensitivity analysis was performed by analyzing outcome for open chest hybrid MIE versus total TMIE and open abdomen MIE versus TMIE separately. Therefore, subgroup analysis was performed for laparoscopy-assisted HMIE versus TMIE, thoracoscopy-assisted HMIE versus TMIE, Ivor Lewis HMIE versus Ivor Lewis TMIE, and McKeown HMIE versus McKeown TMIE. There were no randomized controlled trials. Twenty-nine studies with a total of 3732 patients were included. Studies had a low to moderate risk of bias. In the main analysis, the pooled incidence of pneumonia was 19.0% after HMIE and 9.8% after TMIE which was not significantly different between the groups (RR: 1.46, 95% CI: 0.97-2.20). TMIE was associated with a lower incidence of wound infections (RR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.13-2.90) and less blood loss (SMD: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.34-1.22) but with longer operative time (SMD:-0.33, 95% CI: -0.59--0.08). In subgroup analysis, laparoscopy-assisted HMIE was associated with a higher lymph node count than TMIE, and Ivor Lewis HMIE was associated with a lower anastomotic leakage rate than Ivor Lewis TMIE. In general, TMIE was associated with moderately lower morbidity compared to HMIE, but randomized controlled evidence is lacking. The higher leakage rate and lower lymph node count that was found after TMIE in sensitivity analysis indicate that TMIE can also have disadvantages. The findings of this meta-analysis should be considered carefully by surgeons when moving from HMIE to TMIE.

The Value of Decision Analytical Modeling in Surgical Research: An Example of Laparoscopic Versus Open Distal Pancreatectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate how decision modeling may identify relevant uncertainty and can preclude or identify areas of future research in surgery. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: To optimize use of research resources, a tool is needed that assists in identifying relevant uncertainties and the added value of reducing these uncertainties. METHODS: The clinical pathway for laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy (LDP) versus open (ODP) for nonmalignant lesions was modeled in a decision tree. Cost-effectiveness based on complications, hospital stay, costs, quality of life, and survival was analyzed. The effect of existing uncertainty on the cost-effectiveness was addressed, as well as the expected value of eliminating uncertainties. RESULTS: Based on 29 nonrandomized studies (3.701 patients) the model shows that LDP is more cost-effective compared with ODP. Scenarios in which LDP does not outperform ODP for cost-effectiveness seem unrealistic, e.g., a 30-day mortality rate of 1.79 times higher after LDP as compared with ODP, conversion in 62.2%, surgically repair of incisional hernias in 21% after LDP, or an average 2.3 days longer hospital stay after LDP than after ODP. Taking all uncertainty into account, LDP remained more cost-effective. Minimizing these uncertainties did not change the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The results show how decision analytical modeling can help to identify relevant uncertainty and guide decisions for future research in surgery. Based on the current available evidence, a randomized clinical trial on complications, hospital stay, costs, quality of life, and survival is highly unlikely to change the conclusion that LDP is more cost-effective than ODP.

Learning Curve and Associated Morbidity of Minimally Invasive Esophagectomy: A Retrospective Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the morbidity that is associated with the learning curve of minimally invasive esophagectomy. BACKGROUND: Although learning curves have been described, it is currently unknown how much extra morbidity is associated with the learning curve of technically challenging surgical procedures. METHODS: Prospectively collected data were retrospectively analyzed of all consecutive patients undergoing minimally invasive Ivor Lewis esophagectomy in 4 European expert centers. The primary outcome parameter was anastomotic leakage. Secondary outcome parameters were operative time and textbook outcome ("optimal outcome"). Learning curves were plotted using weighted moving average and CUSUM analysis was used to determine after how many cases the plateau was reached. Learning associated morbidity was calculated with area under the curve analysis. RESULTS: This study included 646 patients. Three of the 4 hospitals reached the plateau of 8% anastomotic leakage. The length of the learning curve was 119 cases. The mean incidence of anastomotic leakage decreased from 18.8% during the learning phase to 4.5% after the plateau had been reached (P < 0.001). Thirty-six extra patients (10.1% of all patients operated on during the learning curve) experienced learning associated anastomotic leakage, that could have been avoided if patients were operated by surgeons who had completed the learning curve. The incidence of textbook outcome increased from 28% to 53% and the mean operative time decreased from 344 minutes to 270 minutes. CONCLUSIONS: A considerable number of 36 extra patients (10.1%) experienced learning associated anastomotic leakage. More research is urgently needed to investigate how learning associated morbidity can be reduced to increase patient safety during learning curves.