A simulation impact evaluation of a cigarette excise tax increase on licit and illicit cigarette consumption and tax revenue in 36 European countries.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of a simulated 10% tax-induced cigarette price increase on licit and illicit consumption and tax revenues in 36 European countries. METHODS: Employing panel data for licit and illicit cigarette consumption, fixed effects regression models were applied for different income clusters. RESULTS: Total cigarette consumption dropped by about 3.1% as a result of the simulated tax-induced price increase. Annual illicit cigarette consumption increased by 1.52%, (95% confidence interval: 0.21, 2.83), while annual licit cigarette consumption decreased by 4.61% (95% confidence interval: -6.51, -2.72) in the observed 36 European countries. With total consumption decreasing by about 8%, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia were affected the most by the price hike. More specifically, licit consumption in these countries decreased by 18.43% (95% confidence interval: -19.91, -16.95) while illicit use increased by 10.99% (95% confidence interval: 6.01, 15.96). Moreover, the overall annual tobacco tax revenue increased by US$14.69 billion in the simulation. CONCLUSION: Results of the study suggest that European policy makers continue to implement tobacco taxation policies to control smoking prevalence and national health care expenditures. At the same time, efforts to kerb contraband activities along EU Eastern borders should be intensified.

Smoking-related changes or brand switching? Smokers' anticipated responses to a large increase in Taiwan's Tobacco Health and Welfare Surcharge.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines the impact on smokers' behaviour of a planned increase in the Health and Welfare Surcharge of Tobacco Products in Taiwan. STUDY DESIGN: This study used a structured questionnaire to perform telephone interviews. Stratified random sampling was applied to interview current smokers aged 18-65 years in Taiwan. METHODS: Based on nationwide survey data of smokers' responses to future increases in cigarette prices, this study used multinomial logistic regression to perform its analyses. RESULTS: After the proposed increase in the Health and Welfare Surcharge of Tobacco Products, subsequent cigarette price increases would motivate nearly 30% of the smokers to adopt smoking-related changes and 10% to change to lower-priced brands. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that a large increase in the Health and Welfare Surcharge of Tobacco Products would lead to considerable changes in smoking behaviour, which in turn would increase cessation rate at the population level.