Thyroid cancer risk in areas of Ukraine and Belarus affected by the Chernobyl accident.

The purpose of the present study was to analyze the thyroid cancer incidence risk after the Chernobyl accident and its degree of dependence on time and age. Data were analyzed for 1034 settlements in Ukraine and Belarus, in which more than 10 measurements of the (131)I content in human thyroids had been performed in May/June 1986. Thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for the birth years 1968-1985 and related to thyroid cancers that were surgically removed during the period 1990-2001. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the EAR dose response was 2.66 (95% CI: 2.19; 3.13) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy; for the quadratic coefficient, it was -0.145 (95% CI: -0.171; -0.119) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy(2). The EAR was found to be higher for females than for males by a factor of 1.4. It decreased with age at exposure and increased with age attained. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the ERR dose response was 18.9 (95% CI: 11.1; 26.7) Gy(-1); for the quadratic coefficient, it was -1.03 (95% CI: -1.46; -0.60) Gy(-2). The ERR was found to be smaller for females than for males by a factor of 3.8 and decreased strongly with age at exposure. Both EAR and ERR were higher in the Belarusian settlements than in the Ukrainian settlements. In contrast to ERR, EAR increases with time after exposure. At the end of the observation period, excess risk estimates were found to be close to those observed in a major pooled analysis of seven studies of childhood thyroid cancer after external exposures.

Remediation strategies for rural territories contaminated by the Chernobyl accident.

The objective of the present paper is to derive remediation strategies for rural settlements contaminated by the Chernobyl accident in which annual doses to a critical group still exceed 1 mSv. Extensive radioecological data have been collected for 70 contaminated settlements. A dose model based on these data resulted in estimates that are on average close to and a bit less than the official dose estimates ('catalogue doses') published by the responsible Ministries of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. For eight remedial actions that can be applied on a large scale, effectiveness and costs have been assessed in light of their dependence on soil type, contamination level and on the degree of previous application of remedial actions. Remediation strategies were derived for each of the 70 settlements by choosing remedial actions with lowest costs per averted dose and with highest degree of acceptability among the farmers and local authorities until annual doses are assessed to fall below 1 mSv. The results were generalised to 11 contamination/internal-dose categories. The total numbers of rural inhabitants and privately owned cows in the three countries distributed over the categories were determined and predicted until the year 2015. Based on these data, costs and averted doses were derived for the whole affected population. The main results are (i) about 2000 Sv can be averted at relatively low costs, (ii) the emphasis on reducing external exposures should be increased, (iii) radical improvement of hay-land and meadows and application of Prussian blue to cows should be performed on a large scale if annual doses of 1 mSv are an aim to be achieved, (iv) additional remedial actions of importance are fertilising of potato fields, distribution of food monitors and restriction of mushroom consumption, and (v) for inhabitants of some settlements (in total about 8600) annual doses cannot be reduced below 1 mSv by the remedial actions considered.

Thyroid cancer among Ukrainians and Belarusians who were children or adolescents at the time of the Chernobyl accident.

Our objective is to assess the regional and temporal dependences of the baseline cases contributing to thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed in childhood or during adolescence in Belarus and Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. Data are analysed for Kyiv and Sevastopol City and the 25 oblasts (regions) in Ukraine, and for Minsk and Gomel City and the 6 oblasts in Belarus. Average thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for every birth year in the period from 1968 to 1985. Case data pertain to people who underwent surgical removal of thyroid cancers during the period 1986 to 2001 and who were allocated to their place of residence at the time of the accident. The 35 oblasts/cities were subdivided into an upper, middle and lower group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. Poisson regressions were performed to estimate age, time and gender dependences of the baseline incidence rates in the three groups. The majority of oblasts/cities with high average doses and the majority of Belarusian oblasts/cities belong to the upper group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. The baseline in the upper group is estimated to be larger than in the middle group by a factor of 2.3, and by a factor of 4.0 when compared to the lower group. The baseline incidence increases with age and with time since exposure. Estimated baseline incidence rates were found to increase from 1988 to 1999 by factors of three and two for the upper and the two lower groups respectively. The estimated thyroid cancer incidence rates in Belarus and Ukraine, and their dependences on gender and age, are consistent with observed rates found in the larger cancer registries of other countries. In conclusion, the baseline cases are found to contribute about 70% to the thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine, and about 40% to the incidence in Belarus.

Influence of stable iodine on the transfer of 131I into cows' milk.

The effect of supplying three different stable iodine levels (about 70, 80, and 160 mg day-1) in the daily feed of four dairy cows has been studied for the excretion pattern of 131I. None of the different treatments had a statistically significant effect. A mean milk transfer coefficient of 0.015 +/- 0.001 d l-1 was determined for all iodine supply levels investigated.