Design and selection of drug properties to increase the public health impact of next-generation seasonal malaria chemoprevention: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is recommended for disease control in settings with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum transmission and currently depends on the administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. However, poor regimen adherence and the increased frequency of parasite mutations conferring sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance might threaten the effectiveness of SMC. Guidance is needed to de-risk the development of drug compounds for malaria prevention. We aimed to provide guidance for the early prioritisation of new and alternative SMC drugs and their target product profiles. METHODS: In this modelling study, we combined an individual-based malaria transmission model that has explicit parasite growth with drug pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. We modelled SMC drug attributes for several possible modes of action, linked to their potential public health impact. Global sensitivity analyses identified trade-offs between drug elimination half-life, maximum parasite killing effect, and SMC coverage, and optimisation identified minimum requirements to maximise malaria burden reductions. FINDINGS: Model predictions show that preventing infection for the entire period between SMC cycles is more important than drug curative efficacy for clinical disease effectiveness outcomes, but similarly important for impact on prevalence. When children younger than 5 years receive four SMC cycles with high levels of coverage (ie, 69% of children receiving all cycles), drug candidates require a duration of protection half-life higher than 23 days (elimination half-life >10 days) to achieve reductions higher than 75% in clinical incidence and severe disease (measured over the intervention period in the target population, compared with no intervention across a range of modelled scenarios). High coverage is crucial to achieve these targets, requiring more than 60% of children to receive all SMC cycles and more than 90% of children to receive at least one cycle regardless of the protection duration of the drug. INTERPRETATION: Although efficacy is crucial for malaria prevalence reductions, chemoprevention development should select drug candidates for their duration of protection to maximise burden reductions, with the duration half-life determining cycle timing. Explicitly designing or selecting drug properties to increase community uptake is paramount. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Swiss National Science Foundation.

Impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: As vaccination coverage against SARS-CoV-2 increases amidst the emergence and spread of more infectious and potentially more deadly viral variants, decisions on timing and extent of relaxing effective, but unsustainable, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) need to be made. METHODS: An individual-based transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, OpenCOVID, was developed to compare the impact of various vaccination and NPI strategies on the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland. OpenCOVID uses the Oxford Containment Health Index (OCHI) to quantify the stringency of NPIs. RESULTS: Even if NPIs in place in March 2021 were to be maintained and the vaccine campaigns rollout rapidly scaled-up, a 'third wave' was predicted. However, we find a cautious phased relaxation can substantially reduce population-level morbidity and mortality. We find that a faster vaccination campaign can offset the size of such a wave, allowing more flexibility for NPIs to be relaxed sooner. Model outcomes were most sensitive to the level of infectiousness of variants of concern observed in Switzerland. CONCLUSION: A rapid vaccination rollout can allow the sooner relaxation of NPIs, however ongoing surveillance of - and swift responses to - emerging viral variants is of utmost importance for epidemic control.

Steering Away from Current Amoxicillin Dose Reductions in Hospitalized Patients with Impaired Kidney Function to Avoid Subtherapeutic Drug Exposure.

Current dose reductions recommended for amoxicillin in patients with impaired kidney function could lead to suboptimal treatments. In a prospective, observational study in hospitalized adults with varying kidney function treated with an IV or oral dose of amoxicillin, amoxicillin concentrations were measured in 1−2 samples on the second day of treatment. Pharmacometric modelling and simulations were performed to evaluate the probability of target attainment (PTA) for 40% of the time above MIC following standard (1000 mg q6h), reduced or increased IV dosing strategies. A total of 210 amoxicillin samples was collected from 155 patients with kidney function based on a CKD-EPI of between 12 and 165 mL/min/1.73 m2. Amoxicillin clearance could be well predicted with body weight and CKD-EPI. Recommended dose adjustments resulted in a clinically relevant reduction in the PTA for the nonspecies-related PK/PD breakpoint MIC of 8 mg/L (92%, 62% and 38% with a CKD-EPI of 10, 20 and 30 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively, versus 100% for the standard dose). For MICs ≤ 2 mg/L, PTA > 90% was reached in these patients following both reduced and standard dose regimens. Our study showed that for amoxicillin, recommended dose reductions with impaired kidney function could lead to subtherapeutic amoxicillin concentrations in hospitalized patients, especially when targeting less susceptible pathogens.

Promoter DNA Hypermethylation and Paradoxical Gene Activation.

DNA methylation is a stable epigenetic modification that contributes to the spatiotemporal regulation of gene expression. The manner in which DNA methylation contributes to transcriptional control is dependent on the biological context, including physiological state and the properties of the DNA itself. Classically, dense promoter DNA methylation is associated with transcriptional repression. However, growing evidence suggests that this association may not always hold true, and promoter hypermethylation now also appears to be associated with high transcriptional activity. Furthermore, in a selection of contexts, increasing levels of promoter methylation correlate directly with increased gene expression. These findings postulate a context-dependent model whereby epigenetic contributions to transcriptional regulation occur in a more complex and dynamic manner. We present current evidence documenting promoter hypermethylation and high levels of gene expression, offer insights into the possible mechanisms by which this occurs, and discuss the potential implications for both research and clinical applications.