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Focusing laser light onto a very small target can produce the conditions for laboratory-scale nuclear fusion of hydrogen isotopes. The lack of accurate predictive models, which are essential for the design of high-performance laser-fusion experiments, is a major obstacle to achieving thermonuclear ignition. Here we report a statistical approach that was used to design and quantitatively predict the results of implosions of solid deuterium-tritium targets carried out with the 30-kilojoule OMEGA laser system, leading to tripling of the fusion yield to its highest value so far for direct-drive laser fusion. When scaled to the laser energies of the National Ignition Facility (1.9 megajoules), these targets are predicted to produce a fusion energy output of about 500 kilojoules-several times larger than the fusion yields currently achieved at that facility. This approach could guide the exploration of the vast parameter space of thermonuclear ignition conditions and enhance our understanding of laser-fusion physics.
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The Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) Trial recruited 19,114 participants across Australia and the United States during 2010-2014. Participants were randomized to receive either 100 mg of aspirin daily or matching placebo, with disability-free survival as the primary outcome. During a median 4.7 years of follow-up, 37% of participants in the aspirin group permanently ceased taking their study medication and 10% commenced open-label aspirin use. In the placebo group, 35% and 11% ceased using study medication and commenced open-label aspirin use, respectively. In order to estimate compliance-adjusted effects of aspirin, we applied rank-preserving structural failure time models. The results for disability-free survival and most secondary endpoints were similar in intention-to-treat and compliance-adjusted analyses. For major hemorrhage, cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality, compliance-adjusted effects of aspirin indicated greater risks than were seen in intention-to-treat analyses. These findings were robust in a range of sensitivity analyses. In accordance with the original trial analyses, compliance-adjusted results showed an absence of benefit with aspirin for primary prevention in older people, along with an elevated risk of clinically significant bleeding.
Assuntos
Aspirina , Hemorragia , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Aspirina/uso terapêutico , Hemorragia/induzido quimicamente , Austrália/epidemiologia , Método Duplo-CegoRESUMO
In the dynamic-shell (DS) concept [V. N. Goncharov et al., Novel Hot-Spot Ignition Designs for Inertial Confinement Fusion with Liquid-Deuterium-Tritium Spheres, Phys. Rev. Lett. 125, 065001 (2020).PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.125.065001] for laser-driven inertial confinement fusion the deuterium-tritium fuel is initially in the form of a homogeneous liquid inside a wetted-foam spherical shell. This fuel is ignited using a conventional implosion, which is preceded by a initial compression of the fuel followed by its expansion and dynamic formation of a high-density fuel shell with a low-density interior. This Letter reports on a scaled-down, proof-of-principle experiment on the OMEGA laser demonstrating, for the first time, the feasibility of DS formation. A shell is formed by convergent shocks launched by laser pulses at the edge of a plasma sphere, with the plasma itself formed as a result of laser-driven compression and relaxation of a surrogate plastic-foam ball target. Three x-ray diagnostics, namely, 1D spatially resolved self-emission streaked imaging, 2D self-emission framed imaging, and backlighting radiography, have shown good agreement with the predicted evolution of the DS and its stability to low Legendre mode perturbations introduced by laser irradiation and target asymmetries.
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Spherical implosions in inertial confinement fusion are inherently sensitive to perturbations that may arise from experimental constraints and errors. Control and mitigation of low-mode (long wavelength) perturbations is a key milestone to improving implosion performances. We present the first 3D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of directly driven inertial confinement fusion implosions with an inline package for polarized crossed-beam energy transfer. Simulations match bang times, yields (separately accounting for laser-induced high modes and fuel age), hot spot flow velocities and direction, for which polarized crossed-beam energy transfer contributes to the systematic flow orientation evident in the OMEGA implosion database. Current levels of beam mispointing, imbalance, target offset, and asymmetry from polarized crossed-beam energy transfer degrade yields by more than 40%. The effectiveness of two mitigation strategies for low modes is explored.
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Statistical modeling of experimental and simulation databases has enabled the development of an accurate predictive capability for deuterium-tritium layered cryogenic implosions at the OMEGA laser [V. Gopalaswamy et al.,Nature 565, 581 (2019)10.1038/s41586-019-0877-0]. In this letter, a physics-based statistical mapping framework is described and used to uncover the dependencies of the fusion yield. This model is used to identify and quantify the degradation mechanisms of the fusion yield in direct-drive implosions on OMEGA. The yield is found to be reduced by the ratio of laser beam to target radius, the asymmetry in inferred ion temperatures from the â=1 mode, the time span over which tritium fuel has decayed, and parameters related to the implosion hydrodynamic stability. When adjusted for tritium decay and â=1 mode, the highest yield in OMEGA cryogenic implosions is predicted to exceed 2×10^{14} fusion reactions.
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OBJECTIVES: We examine associations between infant mortality rates (IMRs) and measures of structural racism and socio-economic marginalization in Chicago, Illinois. Our purpose was to determine whether the Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE) was significantly related to community-level IMRs. STUDY DESIGN: We use a cross-sectional ecological public health design to examine community-level factors related to IMRs in Chicago neighborhoods. METHODS: We use data from the Chicago Department of Public Health and the American Community Survey to examine IMR inequities during the period 2012-2016. Calculations of the ICE for race and income were undertaken. In addition, we calculated racialized socio-economic status, which is the concentration of affluent Whites relative to poor Blacks in a community area. We present these ICE measures, as well as hardship, percent of births with inadequate prenatal care (PNC), and the percent of single-parent households as quintiles so that we can compare neighborhoods with the most disadvantage with neighborhoods with the least. Negative binomial regression was used to determine whether the ICE measures were independently related to community IMRs, net of hardship scores, PNC, and single-parent households. RESULTS: Spearman correlation results indicate significant associations in Chicago communities between measures of racial segregation and economic marginalization and IMRs. Community areas with the lowest ICERace scores (those with the largest concentrations of Black residents, compared with White) had IMRs that were 3.63 times higher than those communities with the largest concentrations of White residents. Most associations between community IMRS and measures of structural racism and socioeconomic marginalization are accounted for in fully adjusted negative binomial regression models. Only ICERace remained significantly related to IMRs. CONCLUSIONS: We show that structural racism as represented by the ICE is independently related to IMRs in Chicago; community areas with the largest concentrations of Blacks residents compared with Whites are those with the highest IMRs. This relationship persists even after controlling for socio-economic marginalization, hardship, household composition/family support, and healthcare access. Interventions to improve birth outcomes must address structural determinants of health inequities.
Assuntos
Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade Infantil/etnologia , Áreas de Pobreza , Racismo , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Classe Social , Determinantes Sociais da Saúde/etnologia , Negro ou Afro-Americano/estatística & dados numéricos , Chicago , Estudos Transversais , Características da Família , Feminino , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/etnologia , Humanos , Renda , Lactente , Masculino , Gravidez , Saúde Pública , Fatores Socioeconômicos , População Branca/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
Using highly resolved 3D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations, we identify a novel mechanism by which the deleterious impact of laser imprinting is mitigated in direct-drive inertial confinement fusion. Unsupported shocks and associated rarefaction flows, commonly produced with short laser bursts, are found to reduce imprint modulations prior to target acceleration. Optimization through the choice of laser pulse with picket(s) and target dimensions may improve the stability of lower-adiabat designs, thus providing the necessary margin for ignition-relevant implosions.
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We present narrow-band self-emission x-ray images from a titanium tracer layer placed at the fuel-shell interface in 60-laser-beam implosion experiments at the OMEGA facility. The images are acquired during deceleration with inferred convergences of â¼9-14. Novel here is that a systematically observed asymmetry of the emission is linked, using full sphere 3D implosion modeling, to performance-limiting low mode asymmetry of the drive.
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The first cryogenic deuterium and deuterium-tritium liquid layer implosions at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) demonstrate D_{2} and DT layer inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions that can access a low-to-moderate hot-spot convergence ratio (12
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BACKGROUND: Not only is depression associated with increased inflammation but inflammation is a risk factor for the genesis of depression. Many of the environmental risk factors for depression are transduced through inflammatory signaling. Anti-inflammatory agents show promise for the management of depression in preclinical, epidemiological, and early clinical studies. This opens the door to the potential for anti-inflammatory agents to treat and prevent depression. There are no evidence-based pharmacotherapies for depression prevention. METHOD: ASPREE-D, aspirin in the prevention of depression in the elderly, is a sub study of ASPREE, which explores the potential of aspirin to prevent a range of inflammation related disorders in the elderly. With a sample size of 19,114, and a duration of 5 years, this placebo controlled study will be one of the largest randomized controlled trials in psychiatry and will provide definitive evidence on the ability of aspirin to prevent depression. RESULTS: This paper presents the rationale for the study and presents a summary of the study design. CONCLUSIONS: ASPREE-D may not only define novel therapy but will provide mechanistic proof of concept of the role of inflammation in depression.
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Aspirina/administração & dosagem , Depressão , Inflamação , Idoso , Anti-Inflamatórios/administração & dosagem , Depressão/fisiopatologia , Depressão/prevenção & controle , Método Duplo-Cego , Feminino , Humanos , Inflamação/tratamento farmacológico , Inflamação/psicologia , Masculino , Projetos de PesquisaRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and frailty, and determine whether co-existent MetS and frailty affect disability-free survival (DFS), assessed through a composite of death, dementia or physical disability. DESIGN: Longitudinal study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling older adults from Australia and the United States (n=18,264) from "ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly" (ASPREE) study. MEASUREMENTS: MetS was defined according to American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines (2018). A modified Fried phenotype and a deficit accumulation Frailty Index (FI) were used to assess frailty. Association between MetS and frailty was examined using multinomial logistic regression. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between MetS, frailty and DFS over a median follow-up of 4.7 years. RESULTS: Among 18,264 participants, 49.9% met the criteria for MetS at baseline. Participants with Mets were more likely to be pre-frail [Relative Risk Ratio (RRR): 1.22; 95%Confidence Interval (CI): 1.14, 1.30)] or frail (RRR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.32, 2.08) than those without MetS. MetS alone did not shorten DFS while pre-frailty or frailty alone did [Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.68; 95%CI: 1.45, 1.94; HR: 2.65; 95%CI:1.92, 3.66, respectively]. Co-existent MetS with pre-frailty/frailty did not change the risk of shortened DFS. CONCLUSIONS: MetS was associated with pre-frailty or frailty in community-dwelling older individuals. Pre-frailty or frailty increased the risk of reduced DFS but presence of MetS did not change this risk. Assessment of frailty may be more important than MetS in predicting survival free of dementia or physical disability.
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Demência , Fragilidade , Síndrome Metabólica , Humanos , Idoso , Fragilidade/complicações , Síndrome Metabólica/complicações , Vida Independente , Idoso Fragilizado , Estudos Longitudinais , Avaliação GeriátricaRESUMO
Laser-direct-drive fusion target designs with solid deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel, a high-Z gradient-density pusher shell (GDPS), and a Au-coated foam layer have been investigated through both 1D and 2D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations. Compared with conventional low-Z ablators and DT-push-on-DT targets, these GDPS targets possess certain advantages of being instability-resistant implosions that can be high adiabat (α≥8) and low hot-spot and pusher-shell convergence (CR_{hs}≈22 and CR_{PS}≈17), and have a low implosion velocity (v_{imp}<3×10^{7}cm/s). Using symmetric drive with laser energies of 1.9 to 2.5MJ, 1D lilac simulations of these GDPS implosions can result in neutron yields corresponding to â³50-MJ energy, even with reduced laser absorption due to the cross-beam energy transfer (CBET) effect. Two-dimensional draco simulations show that these GDPS targets can still ignite and deliver neutron yields from 4 to â¼10MJ even if CBET is present, while traditional DT-push-on-DT targets normally fail due to the CBET-induced reduction of ablation pressure. If CBET is mitigated, these GDPS targets are expected to produce neutron yields of >20MJ at a driven laser energy of â¼2MJ. The key factors behind the robust ignition and moderate energy gain of such GDPS implosions are as follows: (1) The high initial density of the high-Z pusher shell can be placed at a very high adiabat while the DT fuel is maintained at a relatively low-entropy state; therefore, such implosions can still provide enough compression ρR>1g/cm^{2} for sufficient confinement; (2) the high-Z layer significantly reduces heat-conduction loss from the hot spot since thermal conductivity scales as â¼1/Z; and (3) possible radiation trapping may offer an additional advantage for reducing energy loss from such high-Z targets.
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We discuss the analyses of gated, x-ray imaging data from polar-direct-drive experiments with cryogenically layered deuterium-tritium targets on the OMEGA laser. The in-flight shell asymmetries were diagnosed at various times during the implosion, which was caused by the beam pointing geometry and preimposed variations in the energy partition between the different groups of laser beams. The shape of the ablation surface during the acceleration phase of the implosion was measured along two different lines of sight, and a Legendre mode (â-mode) decomposition was applied for modes of up to ten to investigate shell asymmetries. A clear causal relationship between the imposed beam imbalance and the shape of the in-flight shell asymmetries was observed. The imploded shell with a balanced energy ratio shows smaller values of the amplitudes of â-mode 2 compared to that from implosions with an imbalanced ring energy ratio. The amplitudes of â-modes 4 and 6 are the same within the measurement uncertainty with respect to the change in beam energy ratio.
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Low- and mid-mode perturbations are possible candidates for performance limitations in cryogenic direct-drive implosions on the OMEGA laser at the Laboratory of Laser Energetics. Simulations with a 3D hydrocode demonstrated that hotspot imagers do not show evidence of the shell breakup in the dense fuel. However, these same simulations revealed that the low- and mid-mode perturbations in the dense fuel could be diagnosed more easily in the post-stagnation phase of the implosion by analyzing the peak in the x-ray emission limb at the coronal-fuel interface than before or at the stagnation phase. In experiments, the asymmetries are inferred from gated images of the x-ray emission of the implosion by using a 16-pinhole array imager filtered to record x-ray energies >800 eV and an x-ray framing camera with 40-ps time integration and 20-µm spatial resolution. A modal analysis is applied to the spatial distribution of the x-ray emission from deuterium and tritium cryogenic implosions on OMEGA recorded after the bang time to diagnose the low- and mid-mode asymmetries, and to study the effect that the beam-to-target ratio (Rb/Rt) has on the shell integrity.
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A three-dimensional model of the hot-spot x-ray emission has been developed and applied to the study of low-mode drive asymmetries in direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions on OMEGA with cryogenic deuterium-tritium targets. The steady-state model assumes an optically thin plasma and the data from four x-ray diagnostics along quasi-orthogonal lines of sight are used to obtain a tomographic reconstruction of the hot spot. A quantitative analysis of the hot-spot shape is achieved by projecting the x-ray emission into the diagnostic planes and comparing this projection to the measurements. The model was validated with radiation-hydrodynamic simulations assuming a mode-2 laser illumination perturbation resulting in an elliptically shaped hot spot, which was accurately reconstructed by the model using synthetic x-ray images. This technique was applied to experimental data from implosions in polar-direct-drive illumination geometry with a deliberate laser-drive asymmetry, and the hot-spot emission was reconstructed using spherical-harmonic modes of up to â = 3. A 10% stronger drive on the equator relative to that on the poles resulted in a prolate-shaped hot spot at stagnation with a large negative A2,0 coefficient of A2,0 = -0.47 ± 0.03, directly connecting the modal contribution of the hot-spot shape with the modal contribution in laser-drive asymmetry.
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A system of x-ray imaging spectrometer (XRIS) has been implemented at the OMEGA Laser Facility and is capable of spatially and spectrally resolving x-ray self-emission from 5 to 40 keV. The system consists of three independent imagers with nearly orthogonal lines of sight for 3D reconstructions of the x-ray emission region. The distinct advantage of the XRIS system is its large dynamic range, which is enabled by the use of tantalum apertures with radii ranging from 50 µm to 1 mm, magnifications of 4 to 35×, and image plates with any filtration level. In addition, XRIS is capable of recording 1-100's images along a single line of sight, facilitating advanced statistical inference on the detailed structure of the x-ray emitting regions. Properties such as P0 and P2 of an implosion are measured to 1% and 10% precision, respectively. Furthermore, Te can be determined with 5% accuracy.
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In laser-driven implosions for laboratory fusion, the comparison of hot-spot x-ray yield to neutron production can serve to infer hot-spot mix. For high-performance direct-drive implosions, this ratio depends sensitively on the degree of equilibration between the ion and electron fluids. A scaling for x-ray yield as a function of neutron yield and characteristic ion and electron hot-spot temperatures is developed on the basis of simulations with varying degrees of equilibration. We apply this model to hot-spot x-ray measurements of direct-drive cryogenic implosions typical of the direct-drive designs with best ignition metrics. The comparison of the measured x-ray and neutron yields indicates that hot-spot mix, if present, is below a sensitivity estimated as â¼2% by-atom mix of ablator plastic into the hot spot.
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BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence that epigenetic age acceleration is associated with increased risk of later-life diseases and all-cause mortality. However, there is currently limited evidence that suggests accelerated epigenetic age is associated with dementia risk. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to clarify whether epigenetic biomarkers of accelerated aging can predict dementia risk, which is an important consideration as aging is the greatest risk factor for the disease. METHODS: DNA methylation was measured in peripheral blood samples provided by 160 participants from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study, including 73 pre-symptomatic dementia cases and 87 controls matched for age, sex, and smoking and education status. Epigenetic age was calculated using Horvath, Hannum, GrimAge and PhenoAge DNA methylation clocks, and age acceleration (the disparity between chronological age and epigenetic age) was determined. RESULTS: There was no difference in age acceleration between dementia cases and controls. In males, only Hannum's intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration was increased in pre-symptomatic dementia cases compared to controls (Δ +1.8 years, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: These findings provide no strong evidence that accelerated epigenetic aging measured in peripheral blood can predict dementia risk.
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Envelhecimento/genética , Demência/epidemiologia , Epigênese Genética , Idoso , Biomarcadores/sangue , Metilação de DNA , Demência/sangue , Demência/genética , Feminino , Humanos , MasculinoRESUMO
In deuterium-tritium cryogenic implosions, hot-spot x-ray self-emission is observed to begin at a larger shell radius than is predicted by a one-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamic implosion model. Laser-imprint is shown to explain the observation for a low-adiabat implosion. For more-stable implosions the data are not described by the imprint model and suggest there are additional sources of decompression of the dense fuel.
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Hot-spot shape and electron temperature (Te) are key performance metrics used to assess the efficiency of converting shell kinetic energy into hot-spot thermal energy in inertial confinement fusion implosions. X-ray penumbral imaging offers a means to diagnose hot-spot shape and Te, where the latter can be used as a surrogate measure of the ion temperature (Ti) in sufficiently equilibrated hot spots. We have implemented a new x-ray penumbral imager on OMEGA. We demonstrate minimal line-of-sight variations in the inferred Te for a set of implosions. Furthermore, we demonstrate spatially resolved Te measurements with an average uncertainty of 10% with 6 µm spatial resolution.