International Trade Reshapes the Decoupling of Emissions from Economic Growth.

Efforts to stabilize the global climate change while also continuing human development depend upon "decoupling" economic growth from fossil fuel CO2 emissions. However, evaluations of such decoupling have typically relied on production-based emissions, which do not account for emissions embodied in international trade. Yet international trade can greatly change emissions accounting and reshape the decoupling between emissions and economic growth. Here, we evaluate decoupling of economic growth from different accounts of emissions in each of the 159 countries and analyze the drivers of decoupling. We find that between 1995 and 2015, although 29 countries exhibited strong decoupling of territorial emissions (growing economies and decreasing emissions), only 19 countries achieved economic growth while their consumption-based emissions decreased. Most developed countries have achieved decoupling of emissions related to domestic goods and services, but have not achieved decoupling of emissions related to imported goods and services. The U-test confirms that the domestic component of consumption-based emissions exhibits a stronger decoupling trend from gross domestic product (GDP) growth than consumption-based emissions, and emissions from imports continue to rise with GDP per capita without a corresponding decline, providing a statistical validation of the decoupling analysis. Moreover, in the countries where economic growth and consumption-based emissions are most decoupled, a key driver is decreasing emissions intensity due to technological progress─and especially reductions in the intensity of imported goods and services. Our results reveal the importance of assessing decoupling using consumption-based emissions; successful decoupling may require international cooperation and coordinated mitigation efforts of trading partners.

Trade-Offs between Direct Emission Reduction and Intersectoral Additional Emissions: Evidence from the Electrification Transition in China's Transport Sector.

Electrifying the transport sector is crucial for reducing CO2 emissions and achieving Paris Agreement targets. This largely depends on rapid decarbonization in power plants; however, we often overlook the trade-offs between reduced transportation emissions and additional energy-supply sector emissions induced by electrification. Here, we developed a framework for China's transport sector, including analyzing driving factors of historical CO2 emissions, collecting energy-related parameters of numerous vehicles based on the field- investigation, and assessing the energy-environment impacts of electrification policies with national heterogeneity. We find holistic electrification in China's transport sector will cause substantial cumulative CO2 emission reduction (2025-2075), equivalent to 19.8-42% of global annual emissions, but with a 2.2-16.1 GtCO2 net increase considering the additional emissions in energy-supply sectors. It also leads to a 5.1- to 6.7-fold increase in electricity demand, and the resulting CO2 emissions far surpass the emission reduction achieved. Only under 2 and 1.5 °C scenarios, forcing further decarbonization in the energy supply sectors, will the holistic electrification of transportation have a robust mitigation effect, -2.5 to -7.0 Gt and -6.4 to -11.3 Gt net-negative emissions, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that electrifying the transport sector cannot be a one-size-fits-all policy, requiring synergistically decarbonization efforts in the energy-supply sectors.

Large Virtual Transboundary Hazardous Waste Flows: The Case of China.

The Basel Convention and prior studies mainly focused on the physical transboundary movements of hazardous waste (transporting waste from one region to another for cheaper disposal). Here, we take China, the world's largest waste producer, as an example and reveal the virtual hazardous waste flows in trade (outsourcing waste by importing waste-intensive products) by developing a multiregional input-output model. Our model characterizes the impact of international trade between China and 140 economies and China's interprovincial trade on hazardous waste generated by 161,599 Chinese enterprises. We find that, in 2015, virtual hazardous waste flows in China's trade reached 26.6 million tons (67% of the national total), of which 31% were generated during the production of goods that were ultimately consumed abroad. Trade-related production is much dirtier than locally consumed production, generating 26% more hazardous waste per unit of GDP. Under the impact of virtual flows, 40% of the waste-intensive production and relevant disposal duty is unequally concentrated in three Chinese provinces (including two least-developed ones, Qinghai and Xinjiang). Our findings imply the importance of expanding the scope of transboundary waste regulations and provide a quantitative basis for introducing consumer responsibilities. This may help relieve waste management burdens in less-developed "waste havens".

Worsening Carbon Inequality Embodied in Trade within China.

The mismatch between trade-embodied economic benefits and CO2 emissions causes carbon inequality, which is seldom analyzed from the intracountry level, especially across a long-term period. This study applied an environmentally extended multiregional input-output model to trace this mismatch and measure the carbon inequality quantitatively within China during 2007-2017. The results show that during the past decade, China's national carbon inequality was continuously worsening with carbon Gini coefficients rising regardless of production- (0.21-0.30) or consumption-based (0.12-0.18) accounting. The regional carbon inequality was deteriorating, where less developed provinces with 20% of total value-added emitted 32.9% of total CO2 emissions in 2007, while this figure rose to 42.6% in 2017. The eastern provinces (Jiangsu and Shanghai) had entered into net economic and carbon beneficiaries keeping high trade advantages, by contrast the northwest provinces (Ningxia and Xinjiang) were trapped in a lose-lose situation with trade benefits declining by 68%. The southwest provinces (Yunnan and Guangxi) shifted from being net carbon and value-added exporters to net importers, stepping into the earlier development mode of eastern provinces. This hidden and exacerbated carbon inequality calls for regional-specific measures to avoid the dilemma of economic development and CO2 mitigation, which also gives a good reminder for the rising economies, like India.

Can the marketization of urban land transfer improve energy efficiency?

Local government intervention in land resource allocation can lead to the misallocation of land resources and serious pollutant emissions. As an important market-oriented economic reform in China, the marketization of urban land transfer (MULT) might have the potential to contribute to improving resource allocation efficiency by curbing local government intervention. Therefore, this study aims to provide empirical evidence on the impact of MULT on energy efficiency. We improve the MULT evaluation method to test the mechanism through which MULT affects energy efficiency. The results show that, first, the proportion of land sold by allocation and listing methods, which is characterized by a low degree of marketization, has rapidly increased in recent years, lowering the overall level of MULT. Second, MULT has a direct and significant positive impact on improving energy efficiency. Third, the mechanism analysis indicates that MULT helps enhance energy efficiency by advancing industrial structure optimization and technological progress. Moreover, the heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the impact of MULT on improving energy efficiency differs significantly in different reform stages and between central and peripheral cities. This study sheds light on the importance of land resource allocation in improving energy efficiency and thus has practical policy implications for promoting low-carbon energy transition in emerging countries.

Emission growth and drivers in Mainland Southeast Asian countries.

Mainland Southeast Asian (MSEA) countries (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam) are likely to become one of the next hotspots for emission reduction, since CO2 emissions in this area will have a two-thirds increase by 2040 due to rapid economy growth and associated energy consumption. As one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change, MSEA countries need to develop low-carbon roadmaps based on accurate emission data. This study provides emission inventories for MSEA countries for 2010-2019, based on the IPCC territorial emission accounting approach , including emissions from five types of fuels (i.e., coal, crude oil, oil products, natural gas, and biofuels & waste) used in 47 economic sectors. The results show that the emissions in MSEA countries are on the rise, with average annual growth rates ranging from 2.5% in Thailand to 19.3% in Laos. Biomass is one of the most important sources of carbon emissions, contributing between 11.8% and 76.7% of total carbon emissions, but its share has been declining in most countries, whereas the share of emissions from coal has risen sharply in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. We further examine the drivers behind the changes in emissions using index decomposition analysis. Economic growth was the strongest driver of growth in emissions, while population growth has only had a small effect on emission growth. Energy intensity varies widely across nations, but only significantly reduced CO2 emission growth in Thailand. The secondary sector considerable contributed to an increase in CO2 emissions in Laos and Vietnam, while the tertiary sector only moderately contributed to emissions in Thailand. Our study provides a better understanding of the composition and underlying factors of emission growth in MSEA countries, this could shape their low-carbon development pathway. Our results could also inform other emerging economies, which may become emission hotspots in the next decades, to develop low-carbon roadmaps, thereby contributing to the achievement of global climate change targets.

Global low-carbon energy transition in the post-COVID-19 era.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created significant challenges for energy transition. Concerns about the overwhelming emphasis on economic recovery at the cost of energy transition progress have been raised worldwide. More voices are calling for "green" recovery scheme, which recovers the economy while not compromising on the environment. However, limited academic attention has been paid to comprehensively investigating the implications of COVID-19 for global energy transition. This study thus provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics between energy transition and COVID-19 around the world and proposes a low-carbon energy transition roadmap in the post-pandemic era. Using energy data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), we first summarized and reviewed the progress of energy transition prior to COVID-19. Building on prior progress, we identified the challenges for energy transition during the pandemic from the perspectives of government support, fossil fuel divestment, renewable energy production capacity, global supply chain, and energy poverty. However, the pandemic also generates opportunities for global energy transition. We hence also identified potential opportunities for energy transition presented by the pandemic from the perspectives of price competitiveness, policy implementation efficiency, and renewable energy strengths. We further provided an in-depth discussion on the impact of current worldwide economic recovery stimulus on energy transition. Based on the identified challenges and opportunities, we proposed the post-pandemic energy transition roadmap in terms of broadening green financing instruments, strengthening international cooperation, and enhancing green recovery plans. Our study sheds light on a global low-carbon energy transition framework and has practical implications for green recovery schemes in post-pandemic times.

Implications of COVID-19 lockdowns on surface passenger mobility and related CO2 emission changes in Europe.

The coronavirus pandemic has severely affected our daily lives, with direct consequences on passenger transport. This in turn has strongly impacted the energy demand of the transport sector and associated CO2 emissions. We analyse near real-time passenger mobility and related emission trends in Europe between 21 January and 21 September 2020. We compiled a dataset of country-, sector- and lockdown- specific values, representing daily activity changes in private, public, and active passenger transport. In the aggregate, surface passenger transport emissions fell by 11.2% corresponding to 40.3 MtCO2 in Europe. This decline was predominantly due to the reduction of private passenger transport in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). During the first lockdown in April 2020, CO2 emissions from surface passenger transport declined by 50% in Europe, resulting in a 7.1% reduction in total CO2 emissions. After April 2020, private passenger travel recovered rapidly, while public passenger flows remained low. Solely prompted by the private sector, a rebound in total emissions and surface passenger transport emissions of 1.5% and 10.7%, respectively, was estimated at the end of the study period. The resulting situation of increased private and decreased public passenger transport is in contradiction to major climate goals, and without reversing these trends, emission reductions, as stated in the European Green Deal are unlikely to be achieved. Our study provides an analysis based on a detailed and timely set of data of surface passenger transport and points to options to grasp the momentum for innovative changes in passenger mobility.

The impact of investor attention during COVID-19 on investment in clean energy versus fossil fuel firms.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had significant negative impacts on financial markets, including energy stock markets. However, recently proposed and implemented green recovery plans may mean that clean energy firms demonstrate better performance than fossil fuel firms after the pandemic. As more voices call for the update of clean energy, theory on investor attention suggests investors will pay more attention to the potential to invest in clean energy stocks. Using a sample period of eight weeks before and during the pandemic, we find that the negative impact of the outbreak on both clean energy and fossil fuel firms is more significant for fossil fuel firms. Our results further show that during the pandemic there have been improved returns for clean energy firms as a consequence of investor attention, but not for fossil fuel firms. Our findings provide empirical evidence for the advantages of green recovery schemes in influencing financial markets, especially for clean energy stocks. These results suggest there are benefits for further promotion and implementation of green recovery stimulus measures post-pandemic.

Review on City-Level Carbon Accounting.

Carbon accounting results for the same city can differ due to differences in protocols, methods, and data sources. A critical review of these differences and the connection among them can help to bridge our knowledge between university-based researchers and protocol practitioners in accounting and taking further mitigation actions. The purpose of this study is to provide a review of published research and protocols related to city carbon accounting, paying attention to both their science and practical actions. To begin with, the most cited articles in this field are identified and analyzed by employing a citation network analysis to illustrate the development of city-level carbon accounting from three perspectives. We also reveal the relationship between research methods and accounting protocols. Furthermore, a timeline of relevant organizations, protocols, and projects is provided to demonstrate the applications of city carbon accounting in practice. The citation networks indicate that the field is dominated by pure-geographic production-based and community infrastructure-based accounting; however, emerging models that combine economic system analysis from a consumption-based perspective are leading to new trends in the field. The emissions accounted for by various research methods consist essentially of the scope 1-3, as defined in accounting protocols. The latest accounting protocols include consumption-based accounting, but most cities still limit their accounting and reporting from pure-geographic production-based and community infrastructure-based perspectives. In conclusion, we argue that protocol practitioners require support in conducting carbon accounting, so as to explore the potential in mitigation and adaptation from a number of perspectives. This should also be a priority for future studies.

Emission drivers of cities at different industrialization phases in China.

As cities are the center of human activity and the basic unit of policy design, they have become the focus of carbon dioxide reduction, especially metropolitan areas that are high energy consumers and carbon dioxide emitters in countries such as China. The fact cities differ in their levels of development and stages of industrialization points to the need for tailor-made low-carbon policies. This study is the first to consider cities' different phases of industrialization when analyzing city-level emission patterns and drivers, as well as the decoupling statuses between economic growth and their emission levels in China. The results of 15 representative cities at different phases of industrialization show that various decoupling statuses, driving factors and decoupling efforts exist among cities, and that heterogeneity among these factors also exists among cities at the same industrialization phase. For further decomposition, energy intensity contributed the most to emissions reduction during the period 2005 to 2010, especially for cities with more heavy manufacturing industries, whereas industrial structure was a stronger negative emission driver during the period 2010 to 2015. Based on those findings, we suggest putting into practice a diversified carbon-mitigation policy portfolio according to each city's industrialization phase rather than a single policy that focuses on one specific driving factor. This paper sets an example on emissions-reduction experience for other cities undergoing different industrialization phases in China; it also sheds light on policy initiatives that could be applied to other cities around the world.

Comparisons of CO2 emission performance between secondary and service industries in Yangtze River Delta cities.

To put the brakes on global climate change, China, the world's top emitter, has established ambitious CO2 emissions reduction targets. Industry-level emissions analysis can help policymakers determine better ways to achieve mitigation targets. This study is the first to target the total-factor carbon emission performance (TCPI) of secondary and service industries. We first compile industry-level CO2 emission inventories of 25 Yangtze River Delta cities during 2007-2016. The TCPI of secondary and service industries is then estimated by the non-radial directional distance function. We then compare the TCPI of the two industries across levels, dynamics, and inequalities using a global metafrontier approach. The results show the TCPI of the service industry (0.563 in 2016) was significantly higher than that of secondary industry (0.256 in 2016), suggesting that the service industry was more carbon-friendly. The TCPI gap between the secondary and service industries narrowed over the study period. The TCPI of secondary industry showed a promising increase during 2007-2016 with an annual growth rate of 2.30%, reflecting the positive effects of the government's reforms and environmental regulations. By contrast, the service industry saw a downward trend in TCPI, decreasing by 1.68% annually, primarily because it is a newcomer to low-carbon development. TCPI inequality in secondary industry was much larger than in the service industry, suggesting that significant heterogeneity exists in secondary industry. Therefore, policymakers should implement targeted mitigation policies for secondary industry, and place decarbonising the service industry on the agenda to reverse its decreasing TCPI.

Kazakhstan's CO2 emissions in the post-Kyoto Protocol era: Production- and consumption-based analysis.

The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol came to an end in 2012 and more developing countries began to participate in the new phase of world carbon emission reduction. Kazakhstan is an important energy export country and a pivot of the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI). Despite its emissions are relatively small compared with huge emitters such as China and the US, Kazakhstan also faces great pressure in terms of CO2 emission reduction and green development. Accurately accounting CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan from both production and consumption perspectives is the first step for further emissions control actions. This paper constructs production-based CO2 emission inventories for Kazakhstan from 2012 to 2016, and then further analyses the demand-driven emissions within the domestic market and international trade (exports and imports) using environmentally extended input-output analysis. The production-based inventory includes 43 energy products and 30 sectors to provide detailed data for CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan. The consumption-based accounting results showed that certain sectors like construction drive more emissions and that the fuel consumption in different sectors varies. Furthermore, Russia and China are major consumers of Kazakhstan's energy and associated emissions, with the construction sector playing the most important role in it. The results suggested that both technology and policy actions should be taken into account to reduce CO2 emissions and that the BRI is also a good chance for Kazakhstan to develop a "Green Economy".

Low-carbon development pathways for resource-based cities in China under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Resource-based cities are important strategic bases for securing resources in China and have made great contributions to the country's economic development. Long-term extensive resource development has made resource-based cities an important region constraining China from achieving comprehensive low-carbon development. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the low-carbon transition path of resource-based cities for their energy greening, industrial transformation, and high-quality economic development. This study compiled the CO2 emission inventory of resource-based cities in China from 2005 to 2017, explored the contribution to CO2 emissions from three perspectives (driver, industry, and city), and predicted the peak of CO2 emissions in resource-based cities. The results show that resource-based cities contribute 18.4% of the country's GDP and emit 44.4% of the country's CO2 and that economic growth and CO2 emissions have not yet been decoupled. The per capita CO2 emissions and emission intensity of resource-based cities are 1.8 times and 2.4 times higher than the national average, respectively. Economic growth and energy intensity are the biggest drivers and main inhibitors of CO2 emissions growth. Industrial restructuring has become the biggest inhibitor of CO2 emissions growth. Based on the different resource endowments, industrial structures, and socio-economic development levels of resource-based cities, we propose differentiated low-carbon transition pathways. This study can provide references for cities to develop differentiated low-carbon development paths under the "double carbon" target.

City level water withdrawal and scarcity accounts of China.

In the context of China's freshwater crisis high-resolution data are critical for sustainable water management and economic growth. Yet there is a dearth of data on water withdrawal and scarcity regardless of whether total or subsector amount, for prefectural cities. In administrative and territorial scope, we accounted for water withdrawal of all 63 economic-socio-environmental sectors for all 343 prefectural cities in China, based on a general framework and 2015 data. Spatial and economic-sector resolution is improved compared with previous studies by partitioning general sectors into industrial and agricultural sub-sectors. Construction of these datasets was based on selection of 16 driving forces. We connected a size indicator with corresponding water-withdrawal efficiency. We further accounted for total blue-water withdrawal and quantitative water scarcity status. Then we compared different scopes and methods of official accounts and statistics from various water datasets. These disaggregated and complete data could be used in input-output models for municipal design and governmental planning to help gain in-depth insights into subsector water-saving priorities from local economic activities.

A comprehensive city-level final energy consumption dataset including renewable energy for China, 2005-2021.

The role of China is increasingly pivotal in climate change mitigation, and the formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies requires city-level information. The effectiveness of national policy implementation is contingent upon the support and involvement of local governments. Accurate data on final energy consumption is vital to formulate and implement city-level energy transitions and energy conservation and emission reduction policies. However, there is a dearth of data sources pertaining to China's city-level final energy consumption. To address these gaps, we developed computational modeling techniques along with top-down and downscaling methods to estimate China's city-level final energy consumption. In this way, we compiled a final energy consumption inventory for 331 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2021, covering seven economic sectors, 30 fossil fuels, and four clean power sources. Moreover, we discussed the validity of the estimation results from multiple perspectives to enhance estimation accuracy. This dataset can be utilized for analysis in various cutting-edge research fields such as energy transition dynamics, transition risk management strategies, and policy formulation processes.

Measuring the low-carbon energy transition in Chinese cities.

Cities' transition from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption to renewable energy sources-the energy transition-is critical to mitigating climate change impact as cities' energy consumption and CO2 emissions account for two-thirds and over 70% of the world's total, respectively. Given cities' heterogeneity, they need specific low-carbon roadmaps instead of one-size-fits-all approaches. Here, we used an Energy Transition Index (ETI) to characterize the city-level energy transitions from energy system performance and transition readiness dimensions. The ETI scores for 282 cities in China revealed a significant heterogeneity across cities and over time, and the gap between the cities in the top and bottom quartiles was persistent. We estimated that China's energy and carbon intensity could decrease by 34% and 32%, respectively, and that carbon per capita could fall by 17% if each city modestly follows the sustainable development path forged by the best performing cities with similar economic structures.

A dataset on corporate sustainability disclosure.

Enterprises, as key emitters, play a vital role in promoting sustainable development. Corporate sustainability disclosure provides a key channel for stakeholders to gain insights into a company's sustainability progress. However, few studies have been conducted to measure sustainability disclosure at the firm level. In this study, we apply the machine learning techniques to listed companies' management discussion and analysis (MD&A) documents and construct a dataset on corporate sustainability disclosure, including the Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Index (CSDI), CSDI_Economic Dimension (CSDI_ECO), CSDI_Environmental Dimension (CSDI_ENV), and CSDI_Social Dimension (CSDI_SOCI). The dataset will be updated annually. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first sustainability disclosure dataset constructed at the firm level. Our dataset reflects corporate managements' sustainability attitudes and promotes the implementation of corporate sustainability strategies and subsequent sustainable economic and social outcomes.

Emission accounting and drivers in Central Asian countries.

Emerging countries are at the frontier of climate change actions, and carbon emissions accounting provides a quantifiable measure of the environmental impact of economic activities, which allows for comparisons of emissions across different entities. However, currently there is no study covering detailed emissions inventories for emerging countries in Central Asian. This paper compiles detailed and accurate carbon emissions inventories in several Central Asian countries (i.e., Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Palestine, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) during the period 2010-2020. Using the IPCC administrative territorial approach, we for the first time compile their emissions inventories in 47 economic sectors and five energy categories. Moreover, we also investigate decoupling status based on Tapio decoupling model and examine emissions driving factors based on the index decomposition analysis method. The primary results illustrate that carbon emissions in Central Asian countries are increasing with huge differences. Decoupling results highlight that most of the sample countries still need more effort to decouple the economy and emissions except that Pakistan achieves an ideal strong decoupling state. The results of the decomposition indicate that the economy and population both raise emissions, while energy intensity and carbon intensity are negative drivers in some countries. We propose practical policy implications for decarbonization and energy transition roadmap in Central Asian countries.

Changes in global food consumption increase GHG emissions despite efficiency gains along global supply chains.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to food consumption complement production-based or territorial accounts by capturing carbon leaked through trade. Here we evaluate global consumption-based food emissions between 2000 and 2019 and underlying drivers using a physical trade flow approach and structural decomposition analysis. In 2019, emissions throughout global food supply chains reached 30 ±9% of anthropogenic GHG emissions, largely triggered by beef and dairy consumption in rapidly developing countries-while per capita emissions in developed countries with a high percentage of animal-based food declined. Emissions outsourced through international food trade dominated by beef and oil crops increased by ~1 Gt CO2 equivalent, mainly driven by increased imports by developing countries. Population growth and per capita demand increase were key drivers to the global emissions increase (+30% and +19%, respectively) while decreasing emissions intensity from land-use activities was the major factor to offset emissions growth (-39%). Climate change mitigation may depend on incentivizing consumer and producer choices to reduce emissions-intensive food products.