Ensuring the need is met: A 50-year simulation study of the National Kidney Registry's family voucher program.

The National Kidney Registry (NKR) Advanced Donation Program enables living donors the opportunity to donate altruistically, or in advance of a potential recipient's transplant, and to receive a voucher that can be redeemed for a future transplant facilitated by the NKR. Family vouchers allow a donor to identify multiple individuals within their immediate family, with the first person in that group in need of a transplant being prioritized to receive a kidney. An increase in vouchers introduces concerns that demand for future voucher redemptions could exceed the supply of available donors and kidneys. A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to estimate the annual number of voucher redemptions relative to the number of kidneys available over a 50-year time horizon under several projected scenarios for growth of the program. In all simulated scenarios, the number of available kidneys exceeded voucher redemptions every year. While not able to account for all real-life scenarios, this simulation study found that the NKR should be able to satisfy the likely redemption of increasing numbers of vouchers under a range of possible scenarios over a 50-year time horizon. This modeling exercise suggests that a donor family's future needs can be satisfied through the voucher program.

HLA Matching Trumps Donor Age: Donor-Recipient Pairing Characteristics That Impact Long-Term Success in Living Donor Kidney Transplantation in the Era of Paired Kidney Exchange.

BACKGROUND: We sought to identify donor characteristics influencing long-term graft survival, expressed by a novel measure, kidney life years (KLYs), in living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT). METHODS: Cox and multiple regression analyses were applied to data from the Scientific Registry for Transplant Research from 1987 to 2015. Dependent variable was KLYs. RESULTS: Living donor kidney transplantation (129 273) were performed from 1987 to 2013 in the United States. To allow sufficient time to assess long-term results, outcomes of LDKTs between 1987 and 2001 were analyzed. After excluding cases where a patient died with a functioning graft (8301) or those missing HLA data (9), 40 371 cases were analyzed. Of 18 independent variables, the focus became the 4 variables that were the most statistically and clinically significant in that they are potentially modifiable in donor selection (P <0.0001; ie, HLA match points, donor sex, donor biological sibling and donor age). HLA match points had the strongest relationship with KLYs, was associated with the greatest tendency toward graft longevity on Cox regression, and had the largest increase in KLYs (2.0 year increase per 50 antigen Match Points) based on multiple regression. CONCLUSIONS: In cases when a patient has multiple potential donors, such as through paired exchange, graft life might be extended when a donor with favorable matching characteristics is selected.