Association of tea and coffee consumption and biliary tract cancer risk: The Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Tea and coffee are widely consumed beverages worldwide. We evaluated their association with biliary tract cancer (BTC) incidence. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We pooled data from 15 studies in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to evaluate associations between tea and coffee consumption and biliary tract cancer development. We categorized participants as nondrinkers (0 cup/day), moderate drinkers (>0 and <3 cups/day), and heavy drinkers (≥3 cups/day). We estimated multivariable HRs and 95% CIs using Cox models. During 29,911,744 person-years of follow-up, 851 gallbladder, 588 intrahepatic bile duct, 753 extrahepatic bile duct, and 458 ampulla of Vater cancer cases were diagnosed. Individuals who drank tea showed a statistically significantly lower incidence rate of gallbladder cancer (GBC) relative to tea nondrinkers (HR=0.77; 95% CI, 0.64-0.91), and intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC) had an inverse association (HR=0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-1.00). However, no associations were observed for extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC) or ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC). In contrast, coffee consumption was positively associated with GBC, with a higher incidence rate for individuals consuming more coffee (HR<3 cups/day =1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.66; HR≥3 cups/day =1.49; 95% CI, 1.11-1.99, Ptrend=0.01) relative to coffee nondrinkers. However, there was no association between coffee consumption and GBC when restricted to coffee drinkers. There was little evidence of associations between coffee consumption and other biliary tract cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Tea consumption was associated with a lower incidence of GBC and possibly IHBDC. Further research is warranted to replicate the observed positive association between coffee and GBC.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Apixaban, Rivaroxaban, and Warfarin in Patients With Cirrhosis and Atrial Fibrillation : A Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Apixaban, rivaroxaban, and warfarin have shown benefit for preventing major ischemic events, albeit with increased bleeding risk, among patients in the general population with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, data are scarce in patients with cirrhosis and AF. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness and safety of apixaban versus rivaroxaban and versus warfarin in patients with cirrhosis and AF. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Two U.S. claims data sets (Medicare and Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database [2013 to 2022]). PARTICIPANTS: 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched patients with cirrhosis and nonvalvular AF initiating use of apixaban, rivaroxaban, or warfarin. MEASUREMENTS: Primary outcomes included ischemic stroke or systemic embolism and major hemorrhage (intracranial hemorrhage or major gastrointestinal bleeding). Database-specific and pooled PS-matched rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years (PY) and Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were estimated, controlling for 104 preexposure covariates. RESULTS: Rivaroxaban initiators had significantly higher rates of major hemorrhagic events than apixaban initiators (RD, 33.1 per 1000 PY [95% CI, 12.9 to 53.2 per 1000 PY]; HR, 1.47 [CI, 1.11 to 1.94]) but no significant differences in rates of ischemic events or death. Consistently higher rates of major hemorrhage were found with rivaroxaban across subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Warfarin initiators also had significantly higher rates of major hemorrhage than apixaban initiators (RD, 26.1 per 1000 PY [CI, 6.8 to 45.3 per 1000 PY]; HR, 1.38 [CI, 1.03 to 1.84]), particularly hemorrhagic stroke (RD, 9.7 per 1000 PY [CI, 2.2 to 17.2 per 1000 PY]; HR, 2.85 [CI, 1.24 to 6.59]). LIMITATION: Nonrandomized treatment selection. CONCLUSION: Among patients with cirrhosis and nonvalvular AF, initiators of rivaroxaban versus apixaban had significantly higher rates of major hemorrhage and similar rates of ischemic events and death. Initiation of warfarin versus apixaban also contributed to significantly higher rates of major hemorrhagic events, including hemorrhagic stroke. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Pre-diagnostic plasma inflammatory proteins and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in three population-based cohort studies from the United States and the United Kingdom.

Previous studies suggest a role for inflammation in hepatocarcinogenesis. However, no study has comprehensively evaluated associations between circulating inflammatory proteins and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among the general population. We conducted a nested case-control study in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS) with 56 pairs of incident HCC cases and controls. External validation was performed in the UK Biobank (34 HCC cases and 48,471 non-HCC controls). Inflammatory protein levels were measured in pre-diagnostic plasma using the Olink® Inflammation Panel. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate multivariable odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between a 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in biomarker levels and HCC risk, considering a statistically significant threshold of false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted p < .05. In the NHS/HPFS, among 70 analyzed proteins with call rates >80%, 15 proteins had significant associations with HCC risk (pFDR < .05). Two proteins (stem cell factor, OR per SD = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.16-0.58; tumor necrosis factor superfamily member 12, OR per SD = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.31-0.85) were inversely associated whereas 13 proteins were positively associated with risk of HCC; positive ORs per SD ranged from 1.73 for interleukin (IL)-10 to 2.35 for C-C motif chemokine-19. A total of 11 proteins were further replicated in the UK Biobank. Seven of the eight selected positively associated proteins also showed positive associations with HCC risk by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, with ORs ranging from 1.56 for IL-10 to 2.72 for hepatocyte growth factor. More studies are warranted to further investigate the roles of these observed inflammatory proteins in HCC etiology, early detection, risk stratification, and disease treatment.

Statins Are Associated With a Decreased Risk of Severe Liver Disease in Individuals With Noncirrhotic Chronic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about the potential impact of statins on the progression of noncirrhotic chronic liver diseases (CLDs) to severe liver disease. METHODS: Using liver histopathology data in a nationwide Swedish cohort, we identified 3862 noncirrhotic individuals with CLD and statin exposure, defined as a statin prescription filled for 30 or more cumulative defined daily doses. Statin users were matched to 3862 (statin) nonusers with CLD through direct 1:1 matching followed by propensity score matching. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome of incident severe liver disease (a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation/liver-related mortality). RESULTS: A total of 45.3% of CLD patients had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 21.9% had alcohol-related liver disease, 17.7% had viral hepatitis, and 15.1% had autoimmune hepatitis. During follow-up evaluation, 234 (6.1%) statin users vs 276 (7.1%) nonusers developed severe liver disease. Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of developing severe liver disease (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.48-0.74). Statistically significantly lower rates of severe liver disease were seen in alcohol-related liver disease (HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.49) and in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.45-1.00), but not in viral hepatitis (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.51-1.14) or autoimmune hepatitis (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.48-1.58). Statin use had a protective association in both prefibrosis and fibrosis stages at diagnosis. Statin use was associated with lower rates of progression to cirrhosis (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.27-0.71), and liver-related mortality (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals with noncirrhotic CLD, incident statin use was linked to lower rates of severe liver disease, suggesting a potential disease-modifying role.

Aspirin for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease Without Cirrhosis: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Aspirin may reduce severity of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and lower the incidence of end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma, in patients with MASLD. However, the effect of aspirin on MASLD is unknown. Objective: To test whether low-dose aspirin reduces liver fat content, compared with placebo, in adults with MASLD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This 6-month, phase 2, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial was conducted at a single hospital in Boston, Massachusetts. Participants were aged 18 to 70 years with established MASLD without cirrhosis. Enrollment occurred between August 20, 2019, and July 19, 2022, with final follow-up on February 23, 2023. Interventions: Participants were randomized (1:1) to receive either once-daily aspirin, 81 mg (n = 40) or identical placebo pills (n = 40) for 6 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was mean absolute change in hepatic fat content, measured by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) at 6-month follow-up. The 4 key secondary outcomes included mean percentage change in hepatic fat content by MRS, the proportion achieving at least 30% reduction in hepatic fat, and the mean absolute and relative reductions in hepatic fat content, measured by magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF). Analyses adjusted for the baseline value of the corresponding outcome. Minimal clinically important differences for study outcomes were not prespecified. Results: Among 80 randomized participants (mean age, 48 years; 44 [55%] women; mean hepatic fat content, 35% [indicating moderate steatosis]), 71 (89%) completed 6-month follow-up. The mean absolute change in hepatic fat content by MRS was -6.6% with aspirin vs 3.6% with placebo (difference, -10.2% [95% CI, -27.7% to -2.6%]; P = .009). Compared with placebo, aspirin treatment significantly reduced relative hepatic fat content (-8.8 vs 30.0 percentage points; mean difference, -38.8 percentage points [95% CI, -66.7 to -10.8]; P = .007), increased the proportion of patients with 30% or greater relative reduction in hepatic fat (42.5% vs 12.5%; mean difference, 30.0% [95% CI, 11.6% to 48.4%]; P = .006), reduced absolute hepatic fat content by MRI-PDFF (-2.7% vs 0.9%; mean difference, -3.7% [95% CI, -6.1% to -1.2%]; P = .004]), and reduced relative hepatic fat content by MRI-PDFF (-11.7 vs 15.7 percentage points; mean difference, -27.3 percentage points [95% CI, -45.2 to -9.4]; P = .003). Thirteen participants (32.5%) in each group experienced an adverse event, most commonly upper respiratory tract infections (10.0% in each group) or arthralgias (5.0% for aspirin vs 7.5% for placebo). One participant randomized to aspirin (2.5%) experienced drug-related heartburn. Conclusions and Relevance: In this preliminary randomized clinical trial of patients with MASLD, 6 months of daily low-dose aspirin significantly reduced hepatic fat quantity compared with placebo. Further study in a larger sample size is necessary to confirm these findings. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04031729.

Cardiovascular disease risk in paediatric and young adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

OBJECTIVE: Longitudinal evidence is lacking regarding the long-term risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in children and young adults with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). DESIGN: This nationwide cohort study included all Swedish children and young adults ≤25 years old with histologically confirmed NAFLD and without underlying cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline (1966-2016; n=699). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded histopathology, and further categorised as simple steatosis or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). NAFLD patients were matched to ≤5 population controls without NAFLD or CVD (n=3353). Using Cox proportional hazards modelling, we calculated multivariable-adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs for incident MACE (ie, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure or cardiovascular mortality). In secondary analyses, we also explored rates of incident cardiac arrhythmias. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 16.6 years, incident MACE was confirmed in 33 NAFLD patients and 52 controls. NAFLD patients had significantly higher rates of MACE than controls (3.1 vs 0.9/1000 person-years (PY); difference=2.1/1000 PY; aHR=2.33, 95% CI=1.43 to 3.78), including higher rates of ischaemic heart disease (difference=1.4/1000 PY; aHR=3.07, 95% CI 1.62 to 5.83) and congestive heart failure (difference=0.5/1000 PY; aHR=3.89, 95% CI=1.20 to 12.64). Rates of incident MACE outcomes appeared to be further augmented with NASH (aHR=5.27, 95% CI=1.96 to 14.19). In secondary analyses, NAFLD patients also had significantly higher rates of cardiac arrythmias (aHR=3.16, 95% CI=1.49 to 6.68). CONCLUSION: Compared with matched population controls, children and young adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly higher rates of incident MACE, including ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. Research to better characterise cardiovascular risk in children and young adults with NAFLD should be prioritised.

Progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and long-term outcomes: A nationwide paired liver biopsy cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: More data are needed regarding the long-term impact of the histological progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on long-term outcomes, including end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and mortality. METHODS: We included Swedish adults with biopsy-confirmed non-cirrhotic NAFLD and ≥2 liver biopsies >6 months apart (1969-2017; n = 718). NAFLD was categorized at initial biopsy as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (NASH), or non-cirrhotic fibrosis. NAFLD progression was defined by histological changes between biopsies (i.e. incident NASH, incident fibrosis, fibrosis progression, cirrhosis). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for incident ESLD (i.e. hospitalization for decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma or liver transplantation) and mortality, according to NAFLD progression vs. stable/regressed disease. RESULTS: At initial biopsy, 497 patients (69.2%) had simple steatosis, 90 (12.5%) had non-fibrotic NASH, and 131 (18.2%) had non-cirrhotic fibrosis. Over a median of 3.4 years between biopsies, 30.4% (218/718) experienced NAFLD progression, including 12.5% (62/497) with incident non-fibrotic NASH, 24.0% (141/587) with incident fibrosis, and 5.6% (40/718) with cirrhosis. Compared to stable/regressed disease, NAFLD progression was associated with significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD (23.8 vs. 11.4/1,000 person-years [PY]; difference = 12.4/1,000 PY; aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.17-2.32). While the highest ESLD incidence occurred with progression to cirrhosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 56.3/1,000 PY), significant excess risk was also found with earlier transitions, including from simple steatosis to incident fibrosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 18.9/1,000 PY). In contrast, all-cause mortality rates did not appear to differ when NAFLD progression was compared to stable/regressed disease (difference = 4.7/1,000 PY; aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.78-1.24). CONCLUSIONS: In a nationwide, real-world cohort of patients with paired NAFLD biopsies, histological disease progression contributed to significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD, but did not appear to impact all-cause mortality. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Currently, data are scarce regarding the long-term impact of histological progression or regression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on subsequent risk of adverse clinical outcomes, including the development of end-stage liver disease and mortality. This is particularly important because randomized-controlled trials of NAFLD therapeutics currently focus on short-term histological endpoints as presumed surrogates for those major clinical outcomes. Thus, the results from this study can help inform the optimal design of future NAFLD therapeutic trials, while also providing the necessary evidence base for public health policies focused on preventing the development and progression of NAFLD.

Association of Aspirin with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Liver-Related Mortality.

BACKGROUND: More information is needed about the long-term effects of low-dose aspirin (≤160 mg) on incident hepatocellular carcinoma, liver-related mortality, and gastrointestinal bleeding in persons with chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus infection. METHODS: Using nationwide Swedish registries, we identified all adults who received a diagnosis of chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C from 2005 through 2015 and who did not have a history of aspirin use (50,275 patients). Patients who were starting to take low-dose aspirin (14,205 patients) were identified by their first filled prescriptions for 90 or more consecutive doses of aspirin. We constructed a propensity score and applied inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance baseline characteristics between groups. Using Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling, we estimated the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related mortality, accounting for competing events. RESULTS: With a median of 7.9 years of follow-up, the estimated cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was 4.0% among aspirin users and 8.3% among nonusers of aspirin (difference, -4.3 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -5.0 to -3.6; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.76). This inverse association appeared to be duration-dependent; as compared with short-term use (3 months to <1 year), the adjusted hazard ratios were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.06) for 1 to less than 3 years of use, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.78) for 3 to less than 5 years of use, and 0.57 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.70) for 5 or more years of use. Ten-year liver-related mortality was 11.0% among aspirin users and 17.9% among nonusers (difference, -6.9 percentage points [95% CI, -8.1 to -5.7]; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.81]). However, the 10-year risk of gastrointestinal bleeding did not differ significantly between users and nonusers of aspirin (7.8% and 6.9%, respectively; difference, 0.9 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.6 to 2.4). CONCLUSIONS: In a nationwide study of patients with chronic viral hepatitis in Sweden, use of low-dose aspirin was associated with a significantly lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and lower liver-related mortality than no use of aspirin, without a significantly higher risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

Risk of Severe Infection in Patients With Biopsy-proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease - A Population-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It has been suggested that patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) might be at increased risk of severe infections, but large-scale data from cohorts with biopsy-proven NAFLD are lacking. METHODS: Population-based cohort study including all Swedish adults with histologically confirmed NAFLD (n = 12,133) from 1969 to 2017. NAFLD was defined as simple steatosis (n = 8232), nonfibrotic steatohepatitis (n = 1378), noncirrhotic fibrosis (n = 1845), and cirrhosis (n = 678). Patients were matched to ≤5 population comparators (n = 57,516) by age, sex, calendar year, and county. Swedish national registers were used to ascertain incident severe infections requiring hospital admission. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios in NAFLD and histopathological subgroups. RESULTS: Over a median of 14.1 years, 4517 (37.2%) patients with NAFLD vs 15,075 (26.2%) comparators were hospitalized for severe infections. Patients with NAFLD had higher incidence of severe infections than comparators (32.3 vs. 17.0/1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.63-1.79). The most frequent infections were respiratory (13.8/1000 person-years) and urinary tract infections (11.4/1000 person-years). The absolute risk difference at 20 years after NAFLD diagnosis was 17.3%, equal to one extra severe infection in every 6 patients with NAFLD. Risk of infection increased with worsening histological severity of NAFLD (simple steatosis [aHR, 1.64], nonfibrotic steatohepatitis [aHR, 1.84], noncirrhotic fibrosis [aHR, 1.77], and cirrhosis [aHR, 2.32]. Also compared with their full siblings, patients with NAFLD were at increased risk of severe infections (aHR, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.70). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were at significantly higher risk of incident severe infection requiring hospitalization both compared with the general population and compared with siblings. Excess risk was evident across all stages of NAFLD and increased with worsening disease severity.

Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Biopsy-proven Alcohol-related Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) frequently have risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but their long-term risk of CVD is not well-known, especially considering the competing risk of death from liver-related causes. It is further unknown if any excess risk varies across histological subgroups. METHODS: We investigated the risk of CVD outcomes in 3488 persons with ALD and an available liver biopsy in Sweden between 1969 and 2016, compared with a matched reference population (n = 15,461). Administrative coding from national diagnostic and histopathology registers were used to define exposures and outcomes. Competing risk regression, taking non-CVD death into account and adjusting for potential confounders, was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios for incident CVD up until Dec 31, 2019. RESULTS: At baseline, patients with ALD had a median age of 58 years, 64% were men, and 2039 (58%) had cirrhosis on histology. The incidence rate of CVD was 35.6 per 1000 person-years in ALD compared with 19.0 per 1000 person-years in reference individuals. ALD was associated with a 2-fold increased short-term risk for CVD compared with matched reference individuals (subdistribution hazard ratio during the first year after diagnosis, 2.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-2.95), but this risk decreased with time. Incidence rates of CVD were comparable across histological subgroups (ranging from 27.4 CVD cases per 1000 person-years in those with normal histology to 39.2 cases per 1000 person-years in those with cirrhosis). CONCLUSIONS: Persons with biopsy-proven ALD have increased rates of CVD across histological subgroups compared with matched reference individuals, particularly just after ALD diagnosis. Active surveillance of modifiable CVD risk factors should be considered by clinicians treating patients with ALD.

Pregnancy Outcomes in Women With Autoimmune Hepatitis - A Nationwide Population-based Cohort Study With Histopathology.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a chronic inflammatory liver condition that predominantly affects women. However, pregnancy risks remain unclear. METHODS: A nationwide population-based cohort study (ESPRESSO) in Sweden from 1992 to 2016 including 309 singleton births in women with AIH and 1532 matched births in women from the general population was performed. AIH was diagnosed as a combination of administrative coding from medical diagnosis of AIH and liver biopsy data from Sweden's 28 pathology departments. Using conditional logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) for adverse pregnancy outcomes were determined. RESULTS: Among 306 live births to women with AIH, 51 (16.7%) were preterm, compared with 70 of 1524 (4.6%) reference births. This corresponded to an OR of 5.10 for preterm birth (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.29-7.92), with similar odds using sibling comparators. Women with AIH with and without cirrhosis had similar odds for preterm birth. The AIH association was particularly strong with medically indicated preterm birth (OR, 13.01; 95% CI, 5.50-30.79). AIH was associated with low birth weight (OR, 5.31; 95% CI, 2.82-9.99) and low 5-minute Apgar score (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.14-10.49) offspring, but we found no association with congenital malformations (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.68-1.91), small for gestational age (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.38-2.85), stillbirth (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.02-18.88), or neonatal death (OR, 7.42; 95% CI, 0.65-84.25). Maternal AIH was linked to an increased odds of cesarean section (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.04-2.00) and preeclampsia (OR, 3.65; 95% CI, 2.01-6.64), but not to gestational diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal AIH was associated with a 5-fold higher odds of preterm birth, and cirrhosis at diagnosis did not add to the impact of AIH on preterm birth. Future studies are needed to understand how to reduce this risk.

Incident cardiac arrhythmias associated with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a nationwide histology cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies suggest a link between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and incident arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation (AF). However, robust data are lacking from cohorts with liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging MASLD severity. METHODS: This population-based cohort included all Swedish adults with histologically-confirmed MASLD and without prior cardiac arrhythmias (1966-2016; n = 11,206). MASLD was defined from prospectively-recorded histopathology, and characterized as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (MASH), non-cirrhotic fibrosis, or cirrhosis. MASLD patients were matched to ≤ 5 controls without MASLD or arrhythmias, by age, sex, calendar year and county (n = 51,856). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we calculated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for incident arrhythmias (including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias, ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest). RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 10.8 years, incident arrhythmias were confirmed in 1351 MASLD patients (10.3/1000 person-years [PY]) and 6493 controls (8.7/1000PY; difference = 1.7/1000PY; aHR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.22-1.38), and MASLD patients had significantly higher rates of incident AF (difference = 0.9/1000PY; aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.18-1.35). Rates of both overall arrhythmias and AF were significantly elevated across all MASLD histological groups, particularly cirrhosis (differences, 8.5/1000PY and 5.3/1000PY, respectively). In secondary analyses, MASLD patients also had significantly higher rates of incident ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest (aHR = 1.53, 95%CI 1.30-1.80), bradyarrhythmias (aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.06-1.48), and other supraventricular arrhythmias (aHR = 1.27, 95%CI 1.00-1.62), compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to matched controls, patients with biopsy-confirmed MASLD had modest but significantly higher incidence of cardiac arrhythmias, including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias and ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest. Excess risk was observed across all stages of MASLD and was highest with cirrhosis.

Antibiotic use and development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A population-based case-control study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Antibiotics affect the gut microbiome. Preclinical studies suggest a role of gut dysbiosis in the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but data from large cohorts with liver histology are lacking. METHODS: In this nationwide case-control study, Swedish adults with histologically confirmed early-stage NAFLD (total n = 2584; simple steatosis n = 1435; steatohepatitis (NASH) n = 383; non-cirrhotic fibrosis n = 766) diagnosed January 2007-April 2017 were included and matched to ≤5 population controls (n = 12 646) for age, sex, calendar year and county of residence. Data for cumulative antibiotic dispensations and defined daily doses were accrued until 1 year before the matching date. Using conditional logistic regression, multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated. In a secondary analysis, NAFLD patients were compared with their full siblings (n = 2837). RESULTS: Previous antibiotic use was seen in 1748 (68%) NAFLD patients versus 7001 (55%) controls, corresponding to 1.35-fold increased odds of NAFLD (95% CI = 1.21-1.51) in a dose-dependent manner (pfor trend < .001). Estimates were comparable for all histologic stages (p > .05). The highest risk of NAFLD was observed after treatment with fluoroquinolones (aOR 1.38; 95% CI = 1.17-1.59). Associations remained robust when patients were compared with their full siblings (aOR 1.29; 95% CI = 1.08-1.55). Antibiotic treatment was only linked to NAFLD in patients without metabolic syndrome (aOR 1.63; 95% CI = 1.35-1.91) but not in those with metabolic syndrome (aOR 1.09; 95% CI = 0.88-1.30). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic use may be a risk factor for incident NAFLD, especially in individuals without the metabolic syndrome. The risk was highest for fluoroquinolones and remained robust in sibling comparisons with whom individuals share genetic and early environmental susceptibilities.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and incident major adverse cardiovascular events: results from a nationwide histology cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Some data suggest a positive association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). However, data are lacking from large cohorts with liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging NAFLD severity. DESIGN: This population-based cohort included all Swedish adults with histologically confirmed NAFLD and without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline (1966-2016, n=10 422). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded histopathology and categorised as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis, non-cirrhotic fibrosis and cirrhosis. Patients with NAFLD were matched to ≤5 population controls without NAFLD or CVD, by age, sex, calendar year and county (n=46 517). Using Cox proportional hazards modelling, we calculated multivariable adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs for MACE outcomes (ie, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, congestive heart failure (CHF) or cardiovascular (CV) mortality). RESULTS: Over a median of 13.6 years, incident MACE was confirmed in 2850 patients with NAFLD and 10 648 controls. Patients with NAFLD had higher incidence of MACE than controls (24.3 vs 16.0/1000 person-years (PY); difference=8.3/1000 PY; aHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.56 to 1.70), including higher rates of IHD (difference=4.2/1000 PY; aHR 1.64, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.75), CHF (difference=3.3/1000 PY; aHR 1.75, 95% CI 1.63 to 1.87), stroke (difference=2.4/1000 PY; aHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.71) and CV mortality (difference=1.2/1000 PY; aHR 1.37, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.48). Rates of incident MACE increased progressively with worsening NAFLD severity (ptrend=0.02), with the highest incidence observed with cirrhosis (difference vs controls=27.2/1000 PY; aHR 2.15, 95% CI 1.77 to 2.61). CONCLUSION: Compared with matched population controls, patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly higher incidence of MACE, including IHD, stroke, CHF and CV mortality. Excess risk was evident across all stages of NAFLD and increased with worsening disease severity.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Chemoprevention with Generic Agents.

Liver cancer, mainly hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a major cause of cancer-related death worldwide. With the global epidemic of obesity, the major HCC etiologies have been dynamically shifting from viral to metabolic liver diseases. This change has made HCC prevention difficult with increasingly elusive at-risk populations as rational target for preventive interventions. Besides ongoing efforts to reduce obesity and metabolic disorders, chemoprevention in patients who already have metabolic liver diseases may have a significant impact on the poor HCC prognosis. Hepatitis B- and hepatitis C-related HCC incidences have been substantially reduced by the new antivirals, but HCC risk can persist over a decade even after successful viral treatment, highlighting the need for HCC-preventive measures also in these patients. Experimental and retrospective studies have suggested potential utility of generic agents such as lipophilic statins and aspirin for HCC chemoprevention given their well-characterized safety profile, although anticipated efficacy may be modest. In this review, we overview recent clinical and translational studies of generic agents in the context of HCC chemoprevention under the contemporary HCC etiologies. We also discuss newly emerging approaches to overcome the challenges in clinical testing of the agents to facilitate their clinical translation.

Cancer Risk in Patients With Autoimmune Hepatitis: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study With Histopathology.

We aimed to determine the risk of incident cancer in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) compared with the general population and siblings. AIH was defined by the presence of a medical diagnosis of AIH and results of examination of a liver biopsy specimen in a nationwide Swedish population-based cohort study. We identified 5,268 adults with AIH diagnosed during 1969-2016 and 22,996 matched, general population, reference individuals and 4,170 sibling comparators. Using Cox regression, hazard ratios were determined for any incident cancer, and subtypes were determined from the Swedish Cancer Register. During follow-up, a cancer diagnosis was made in 1,119 individuals with AIH (17.2 per 1,000 person-years) and 4,450 reference individuals (12.0 per 1,000 person-years). This corresponded to a hazard ratio of 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.66). Cancer risk was highest in those with cirrhosis. There was a 29.18-fold increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (95% confidence interval: 17.52, 48.61). The annual incidence risk of HCC in individuals with AIH who had cirrhosis was 1.1% per year. AIH was also linked to nonmelanoma skin cancer (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.69) and lymphoma (HR = 1.89). Sibling analyses yielded similar risk estimates for any cancer (HR = 1.84) and HCC (HR = 23.10). AIH is associated with an increased risk of any cancer, in particular, HCC and extrahepatic malignancies. The highest risk for cancer, especially HCC, is in patients with cirrhosis.

Gallstones and risk of cancers of the liver, biliary tract and pancreas: a prospective study within two U.S. cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Gallstones may result in inflammation, altered bile flow, and changes in metabolic hormone levels, thereby increasing cancer risk. However, previous studies for gallstones and cancers of the liver, biliary tract and pancreas in the U.S. were relatively limited. METHODS: We followed 115,036 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1982-2012) and 49,729 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2012). History of gallstones, including with or without performed cholecystectomy, was reported at baseline and updated through biennial questionnaires. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to calculate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS: During up to 30-year follow-up, we identified 204 incidents of liver cancer, 225 biliary tract cancer and 1147 pancreatic cancer cases. Compared to those without gallstones diagnosis, the multivariable HRs for individuals with gallstones (untreated or with cholecystectomy) were 1.60 for liver cancer (95% CI: 1.14-2.26), 4.79 for biliary tract cancer (95% CI: 3.02-7.58), and 1.13 for pancreatic cancer (95% CI: 0.96-1.32). The multivariable HRs for individuals with cholecystectomy were 1.33 for liver cancer (95% CI: 0.90-1.95) and 1.15 for pancreatic cancer (95% CI: 0.98-1.36). CONCLUSIONS: Gallstones were associated with a higher risk of cancers of the liver, biliary tract and possibly pancreas.

Artificial intelligence for the prevention and clinical management of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) currently represents the fifth most common malignancy and the third-leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, with incidence and mortality rates that are increasing. Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a unique opportunity to improve the full spectrum of HCC clinical care, by improving HCC risk prediction, diagnosis, and prognostication. AI approaches include computational search algorithms, machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models. ML consists of a computer running repeated iterations of models, in order to progressively improve performance of a specific task, such as classifying an outcome. DL models are a subtype of ML, based on neural network structures that are inspired by the neuroanatomy of the human brain. A growing body of recent data now apply DL models to diverse data sources - including electronic health record data, imaging modalities, histopathology and molecular biomarkers - to improve the accuracy of HCC risk prediction, detection and prediction of treatment response. Despite the promise of these early results, future research is still needed to standardise AI data, and to improve both the generalisability and interpretability of results. If such challenges can be overcome, AI has the potential to profoundly change the way in which care is provided to patients with or at risk of HCC.

Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Hepatic Decompensation Events in Patients With Cirrhosis and Diabetes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study sought to compare the effectiveness of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, sulfonylureas, or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors in reducing decompensation events, among patients with cirrhosis and type 2 diabetes. METHODS: This population-based, retrospective cohort study included patients with type 2 diabetes and cirrhosis, in a commercial healthcare database (IBM MarketScan). We constructed 3 pairwise, 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched cohorts of adults initiating GLP-1RAs or a comparator medication (ie, DPP-4 inhibitors [2006-2020], sulfonylurea [2005-2020], or SGLT-2 inhibitors [2013-2020]). Patients were followed in an as-treated approach for decompensation events (ie, ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, or esophageal variceal hemorrhage). Within each PS-matched cohort, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), controlling for >90 baseline characteristics. RESULTS: Over 132 days of median follow-up (interquartile range, 73-290 days), PS-matched rates of any decompensation were significantly lower among GLP-1RA initiators, versus DPP-4 inhibitor initiators (105.2 vs 144.0 per 1000 person-years [PY]; HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.53-0.88; n = 1431 pairs), and versus sulfonylureas (97.3 vs 144.0 per 1000 PY; HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48-0.84; n = 1246 pairs). Similar, inverse associations were found for individual decompensation events, including ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or hepatorenal syndrome (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.45-0.97; and HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.94, respectively); esophageal variceal hemorrhage (HR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.41-0.92; and HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.92, respectively); and hepatic encephalopathy (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.55-1.06; and HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.39-0.92, respectively). Results persisted in subgroups of patients with and without previously decompensated cirrhosis. In contrast, decompensation rates were similar when GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2 inhibitors were directly compared (103.5 vs 112.8 per 1000 PY; HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.62-1.28). CONCLUSIONS: Among cirrhotic patients with type 2 diabetes, we find high rates of decompensation, consistent with previous reports; these rates were substantially lower among GLP-1RA initiators compared with DPP-4 inhibitors or sulfonylureas.

Risk of Cancer in Biopsy-Proven Alcohol-Related Liver Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study of 3410 Persons.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Persons with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are at an increased risk of death and liver-related endpoints, but the association with incident cancer is not well understood, and whether it differs across histopathological subgroups is undefined. METHODS: We investigated the risk of cancer in 3,410 persons with a diagnosis of ALD and an available liver biopsy in Sweden between 1969-2016, compared to a matched reference population. Administrative coding from national registers and liver biopsy data were used to define exposure and outcome status. Competing risk regression, adjusted for available confounders and using non-cancer mortality as the competing risk, was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs) for incident cancer. RESULTS: At baseline, persons with ALD had a median age of 58.2 years, 67% were men, and 2,042 (60%) had cirrhosis. ALD was not associated with cancer in general (sHR = 1.01, 95%CI = 0.92-1.11), although the risk was increased in persons surviving ≥1 year (sHR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.08-1.32). The risk of liver cancer was elevated sHR = 12.80, 95%CI = 9.38-17.45). HCC incidence among ALD persons with cirrhosis was 8.6 cases/1,000 person-years, corresponding to a cumulative incidence after 10 years of 5.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Persons with biopsy-proven ALD that survive the initial time after diagnosis are at an elevated risk for cancer, in particular HCC compared with the general population. Although the risk for HCC was elevated, data do not suggest that routine surveillance for HCC in ALD cirrhosis is cost-effective.