Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities for marine conservation.

Incentivized debt conversion is a financing mechanism that can assist countries with a heavy debt burden to bolster their long-term domestic investment in nature conservation. The Nature Conservancy, an international conservation-based nongovernmental organization, is adapting debt conversions to support marine conservation efforts by small island developing states and coastal countries. Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities according to their potential return on investment can increase the impact and effectiveness of this finance mechanism. We developed guidance on how to do so with a decision-support approach that relies on a novel threat-based adaptation of cost-effectiveness analysis. We constructed scenarios by varying parameters of the approach, including enabling conditions, expected benefits, and threat classifications. Incorporating both abatable and unabatable threats affected priorities across planning scenarios. Similarly, differences in scenario construction resulted in unique solution sets for top priorities. We show how environmental organizations, private entities, and investment banks can adopt structured prioritization frameworks for making decisions about conservation finance investments, such as debt conversions. Our guidance can accommodate a suite of social, ecological, and economic considerations, making the approach broadly applicable to other conservation finance mechanisms or investment strategies that seek to establish a transparent process for return-on-investment decision-making.

Priorización de las Oportunidades de Conversión de Deudas para la Conservación Marina Resumen La incentivación de la conversión de deudas es un mecanismo financiero que puede apoyar a los países con una gran carga deudora a impulsar su inversión doméstica a largo plazo en la conservación de la naturaleza. The Nature Conservancy, una organización internacional no gubernamental basada en la conservación está adaptando las conversiones de deudas para que apoyen a los esfuerzos de conservación marina realizados por países en desarrollo ubicados en pequeñas islas y por los países costeros. La priorización de las oportunidades de conversión de deudas según su rendimiento potencial de la inversión puede incrementar el impacto y la efectividad de este mecanismo financiero. Desarrollamos una guía de cómo lograr esto con una estrategia de respaldo a las decisiones que depende de una adaptación novedosa basada en amenazas de un análisis de rentabilidad. Construimos escenarios por medio de la variación de los parámetros de alcance (incluyendo a las condiciones de habilitación), los beneficios esperados y las clasificaciones de las amenazas. La incorporación de las amenazas abatibles e imbatibles afectó a las prioridades en todos los escenarios de planeación. De manera similar, las diferencias en la construcción de los escenarios resultaron en un conjunto de soluciones únicas para las principales prioridades. Así demostramos cómo las organizaciones ambientales, entidades privadas y los bancos de inversión pueden adoptar marcos de trabajo de priorización estructurada para la toma de decisiones sobre la inversión en el financiamiento de la conservación, como lo son las conversiones de deudas. Nuestra guía puede satisfacer un conjunto de consideraciones sociales, ecológicas y económicas, lo que vuelve a la estrategia en general pertinente para otros mecanismos de financiamiento de la conservación o estrategias de inversión que busquen establecer un proceso transparente para la toma de decisiones de rendimiento de la inversión.

Modelling entanglement rates to estimate mortality of marine birds in British Columbia commercial salmon gillnet fisheries.

Incidental mortality of marine birds in fisheries is an international conservation concern, including in Canada where globally significant populations of vulnerable diving species overlap with coastal gillnet fisheries. In British Columbia (BC), commercial salmon gillnet fishing effort was historically very high (>200,000 days fished annually in the early 1950's), and although this fishery has declined, over 6,400 days were fished annually in the 2006-2016 decade. Observations of seabird bycatch within the commercial fishery, however, are limited in both scope (comprising <2% of cumulative effort 2001-2016) and in time (being available only from 1995 onwards and only for a small number of areas). Using onboard fishery observer data from commercial, test and experimental fisheries (1995-2016), we developed two models to estimate the number of marine birds captured per set in sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and chum (O. keta) salmon gillnet fisheries employing a Generalized Linear Mixed Modeling (GLMM) approach in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, with observer data post-stratified by fisheries management area and year. Using estimates of total commercial fishing effort (estimated number of sets, 2001-2016) we applied the models to extrapolate annual take for the main bird species (or groups) of interest. Multinomial probability estimates of species composition were calculated based upon a sample of 852 birds identified to species that were associated with sockeye or chum fisheries, enabling estimates (with CIs) of potential numbers of the mostly commonly observed species (common murres (Uria aalge), rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata), and marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus)) entangled annually in commercial sockeye and chum salmon gillnet fisheries throughout BC. Conservative estimates of annual losses to entanglement were greatest for common murres (2,846, 95% CI: 2,628-3,047), followed by rhinoceros auklets (641, CI: 549-770) and marbled murrelets (228 CI: 156-346). Populations of all three of these alcids species are currently in decline in BC and entanglement mortality is a conservation concern. Gillnet mortality has been identified as a longstanding threat to marbled murrelet populations, which are recognized as Threatened in the Canada and the United States of America (USA). In addition, 622 (CI: 458-827) birds from 12 other species were estimated to be entangled annually. We conclude that cumulative mortality from incidental take in salmon gillnet fisheries is one of the largest sources of human-induced mortality for marine birds in BC waters, a conservation concern impacting both breeders and visiting migrants.