Regional policy options for carbon peaking in the Yangtze River Delta under uncertainty.

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region plays a crucial role in achieving China's carbon peaking goal. However, due to uncertainties surrounding future economic growth, energy consumption, energy structure, and population, the attainment of carbon peaking in this region remains uncertain. To address this issue, this study utilized the generalized Divisia index method to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions, including economy, energy, investment, and population. Subsequently, Monte Carlo simulations were combined with scenario analysis to dynamically explore the peak path of regional heterogeneity in the YRD from 2022 to 2035 under uncertain conditions. The findings highlighted that economic uncertainty has the most significant impact on carbon emissions. Furthermore, reducing energy intensity and promoting the transformation of the energy consumption structure contribute to carbon reduction. The study also revealed that the carbon peak in the YRD exhibits regional heterogeneity. According to the baseline scenario, carbon emissions in the YRD will not peak before 2035. However, under the low-carbon development scenario, the carbon emissions of Zhejiang and Shanghai will peak before 2030. Moreover, under the enhanced emission reduction (EE) scenario, carbon emissions in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai will peak before 2025, while Anhui will reach its peak before 2030. Collectively, the entire YRD region is forecasted to attain a carbon emissions peak of 2.29 billion tons by 2025 under the EE scenario. This study provides valuable insights into the carbon emission trajectories of the YRD region under uncertain conditions. The findings can be instrumental in formulating carbon peaking policies that account for regional heterogeneity.

Impact of carbon emission trading system on green technology innovation of energy enterprises in China.

China proposed establishing a carbon emission trading market in its 12th Five-Year Plan to reduce carbon dioxide emissions through market mechanisms, promote the development of science and technology and help China become an environment-friendly country. To examine the impact of carbon emission trading on green technology innovation in Chinese energy enterprises, data from 1993 to 2020 were collected from 494 A-share-listed energy enterprises. Enterprises located in the pilot area of carbon emissions trading were assigned to the treatment group, while those in the non-pilot area were assigned to the control group. The propensity-score-matching method was utilized to match the treatment group with the control group, and the resulting samples were used as the actual sample data. The difference-in-differences method was then employed to assess the net impact of carbon emission trading and investigate its effect on green technology innovation in energy enterprises. This empirical study suggested that carbon emission trading has a positive impact on green technology innovation in energy enterprises, particularly state-owned ones. Larger enterprises are more willing to engage in green technological innovation than small enterprises. Furthermore, when faced with a carbon emission trading system, 'mature' companies tend to pay more attention to green technology innovation than younger enterprises do. This study puts forward policy measures for establishing a national-level carbon emission market in China in the future.

Public participation and outgoing audit of natural resources: Evidence from tripartite evolutionary game in China.

Public participation is essential to the success of ecological civilization. Whether public participation can effectively play a role in the outgoing audit of natural resources (OANR) is an important issue that remains to be explored. This paper uses the tripartite evolutionary game to explore the mechanism of the audit subjects, the leading cadres, and the public in the OANR. The research finds that there is a two-way linkage relationship between the audit subjects and the leading cadres. The audit subjects and the leading cadres affect the behavior strategies of the public in the indirect way and direct way, respectively. However, the public lacks the path to directly affect the other two subjects. The tripartite ideal audit model of "the audit subjects conduct due diligence audits, leading cadres perform duties, the public participate" cannot be realized. The external effect of the public's strategic choice is not enough to make the profit or loss of leading cadres change structurally and then change their behaviors. This paper demonstrates the reasons why the public cannot effectively participate in the OANR at the current stage from three aspects, which are the interpretation of the equations for replication dynamics, the particularity of the audit system, and the effectiveness of public participation. Three suggestions are put forward which are encouraging citizens' indirect participation in the OANR, disclosing information about the OANR, and improving citizens' awareness of the OANR. This paper has important guiding significance for other developing countries to promote public participation in natural resource auditing.

A new perspective to promote sustainable low-carbon consumption: The influence of informational incentive and social influence.

In the era of internet-based information, how to promote sustainable low-carbon consumption by residents through information incentives and social influence is a pressing question that needs to be solved urgently. This study develops an explanatory model to explain how information incentives and social influence affect sustainable low-carbon consumption by residents. Data were collected from residents by large-scale online surveys in China. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to evaluate the model in its theory-mediated model scope to make it better than multiple regression. The empirical results show that purchase behavior, daily use behavior, waste disposal behavior, and public participation behavior define sustainable low-carbon consumption behavior; information incentives and social influence are two important predictors for low-carbon consumption behavior; at the level of information motivation, emotional information has a greater impact on low-carbon consumption behavior than rational information; and at the level of social influence, the influence of peer imitation is greater than that of endorsements and social norms. This study provides interesting insights into the important role of information and social networks for promoting low-carbon consumption behavior. Finally, we propose an information-based guidance policy to promote low-carbon consumption behavior based on social influence.

Evaluating the energy efficiency-enhancing potential of the digital economy: Evidence from China.

Improving energy efficiency can go a long way in helping China address environmental problems it currently faces and help deliver on its pledge of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. At the same time, innovative production technologies based on digital solutions continue to attract significant attention, owing to their potential to provide environmentally sustainable development opportunities. This study explores whether the digital economy can improve energy efficiency by facilitating input reallocation and promoting better information flows. We rely on a panel of 285 Chinese cities for the period 2010-2019 and a so-called slacks-based efficiency measure incorporating socially undesirable outputs to obtain energy efficiency from the decomposition of a productivity index. Our estimation results demonstrate that the digital economy can promote better energy use efficiency. More specifically, a 1-percentage point increase in the size of the digital economy leads to an average increase of around 14.65 percentage points in energy efficiency. This conclusion still holds under a two-stage least-squares procedure used to mitigate endogeneity. The efficiency-enhancing impact of digitalization is heterogeneous and depends on factors such as resource endowment, city size, and geographical location. Additionally, our results suggest that digital transformation within a particular region has an adverse effect on energy efficiency in that region's neighboring areas due to negative spatial spillover effects. These negative spillovers outweigh the positive direct effect on energy efficiency that can be attributed to a growing digital economy.

Spatio-temporal efficiency of fiscal environmental expenditure in reducing CO2 emissions in China's cities.

Although market-based CO2 emission control measures (e.g., carbon tax and carbon trading market) have been deeply discussed, government-based measures have received limited attention. This has led to increased uncertainty regarding the formulation of targeted emission reduction policies. Using a unique dataset, the non-radial directional distance function, a proposed spatial meta-frontier analysis method, and the log t convergence model, this study comprehensively investigates the spatio-temporal trends in fiscal environmental expenditure efficiency (FE) and corresponding causes for in a case study for 106 Chinese cities over 2007-2019. The results show that city-level FE presented a slow upward trend at a relatively low level, with a clearly skewed distribution. The technology gap effect between city groups and the overall best production technology, and the efficiency gap effect within city groups were the main drivers widening the overall FE gap. Convergence analysis indicated that three convergence clubs of FE were found, which were distributed across the country. This study highlights that, when constructing fiscal environmental expenditure policies, the government should focus on balancing the regional gap of FE while comprehensively improving FE.

Energy market integration and renewable energy development: Evidence from the European Union countries.

Based on the panel data of 20 countries in EU during the period of 2007-2019, this paper study the effect of energy market integration (EMI) on renewable energy development (RED). We develop a general equilibrium model to explain how EMI affect the RED and the role of different mechanisms. The empirical results reports that the European EMI increased both the consumption and power generation of renewable energy, which proves a significant positive effect of EMI on the RED. In line with our expectations of theoretical model, our estimates show that the increase of renewable energy consumption is mainly due to the fossil energy cost increased, technology advancement and regional environmental regulation strengthening. And the fossil energy cost is the main driven force which plays a completely mediating role between EMI and RED. Furthermore, we also observe a negative effect of FDI and industry structure on RED.

Spatiotemporal carbon emissions across the spectrum of Chinese cities: Insights from socioeconomic characteristics and ecological capacity.

In-depth investigation of the spatiotemporal driver patterns of city carbon emissions is vital toward establishing carbon neutrality, as such knowledge would aid policymakers in formulating differentiated emission reduction policies. Through developing a unique carbon emission dataset and applying a spatiotemporal logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach, we explored the spatiotemporal drivers of CO2 emission for diverse cities in China categorized by economic structure and population size during 2002-2018. The results highlighted GDP per capita and industrial structure as the most positive and negative drivers, respectively, with the former overweighing the latter before 2016. Furthermore, the between-group differences of cities categorized using population size were higher than differences within groups, implying evident heterogeneity of carbon emissions. Emission related to within-differences in net primary productivity (NPP) constitutes the largest contributing factor promoting carbon emission in megacities and highly industrialized cities, whereas NPP between-differences in agricultural carbon intensity are predominantly associated with inhibiting emissions in large and highly commercialized cities. We therefore suggest that policymakers should optimize the industrial structure in highly industrialized cities and develop carbon sequestration in cities with high vegetation coverage through fiscal transfer for achieving carbon neutrality.

Impacts of renewable electricity standard and Renewable Energy Certificates on renewable energy investments and carbon emissions.

Accelerating the development of renewable energy is seen as an effective way for achieving the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The polices of Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) and Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) play increasing and important roles in developing renewable energy. In this paper, we develop an analytical model to analyze the impacts of the interaction of RES and REC polices on the renewable energy investment levels of an electricity generation firm and the carbon emissions. Our analysis reveals several interesting insights. First, we find that the green tags price under REC policy has a non-monotonic effect on the renewable energy investment, which highly depends on the quota (i.e., the required percentage of renewable electricity consumption on total electricity consumption) under the RES policy. Specifically, when the quota in RES policy is set too high, an increase in the green tags price will increase renewable energy investment; otherwise it will reduce the electricity generation firm's incentive to invest in renewable energy. Second, we show that the green tags price also has a non-monotonic effect on the carbon emissions. Specifically, when the quota in RES policy is set small enough, an increase in the green tags price will decrease the carbon emission. However, when the quota in RES policy is high enough, an increase in the green tags price will increase the carbon emission.

Economic and intensity effects of coal consumption in China.

The increase in coal consumption and its impact on the environment has become a bottleneck that hinders sustainable development. This paper discusses the effect of economic growth and coal intensity on China's coal consumption during 2005-2017 using the Laspeyres index decomposition method. The decoupling of coal consumption from economic growth was examined in conjunction with the Tapio elasticity index, and the decoupling contributions of economic growth and coal intensity are further determined. The results indicated that economic growth drives an increase in coal consumption; however, the contribution rate declines gradually with decrease in economic growth rate in each province. Further research showed that the secondary industry is the main contributor to the increment, and the rapid development of tertiary industry increases indirect coal consumption. Coal intensity has a positive impact on curbing coal consumption, but it is not sufficient to offset the increment generated by the economic effect. Moreover, in each province, the curbing effect gradually decreased as the decline in coal intensity weakened in the secondary industry. Furthermore, coal consumption is weakly decoupled from economic growth over the long term, and the secondary industry will determine the future trend of decoupling.

Manufacturing transfer and environmental efficiency: Evidence from the spatial agglomeration of manufacturing in China.

Manufacturing transfer is an important factor in optimizing the spatial distribution of resources and promoting regional environmental efficiency. Based on the manufacturing data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2017, the spatial Durbin model is used to investigate the impact of three types of manufacturing transfer and spatial agglomeration effects on environmental efficiency under the spatial weight matrix of economic distance. The results show that the improvement of environmental efficiency is inhibited by the transfer of labor-intensive manufacturing but facilitated by the spatial agglomeration of such manufacturing. The transfer of capital and technology-intensive manufacturing has no significant impact on environmental efficiency. Environmental efficiency is significantly improved by the spatial agglomeration of technology-intensive manufacturing but significantly inhibited by that of capital-intensive manufacturing. Third, the impact of three types of manufacturing transfer on environmental efficiency is analyzed from the perspective of regional heterogeneity. This paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from the perspectives of manufacturing transfer, the agglomeration effect, so as to further improve the environmental efficiency.

Potential Role of Fiscal Decentralization on Interprovincial Differences in CO2 Emissions in China.

Spatial differences in CO2 emissions must be taken into account in CO2 mitigation. In this work, a spatial within-between logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition model was developed by using cluster analysis to evaluate the potential role of fiscal decentralization in driving interprovincial differences in CO2 emissions in China. The results revealed that the direct impact of fiscal decentralization emerged as a major emission driver after 2009. The differences of provincial CO2 emissions from the national average can be mainly attributed to emission differences between the distinct provincial clusters. The direct and indirect impacts of fiscal decentralization contributed to the shaping of differences in CO2 emission between provinces and their provincial cluster average, and between provincial cluster average and the national average. Reducing the differences in CO2 emission between distinct provincial clusters should be considered a breakthrough for the Chinese government. The provinces with CO2 emissions below the national average and above the average emissions of its provincial cluster still have the potential for further mitigation. Optimizing the expenditure authority of the central and provincial governments and improving the energy efficiency of the provincial fiscal expenditure are the two effective ways to further promote CO2 mitigation.

Global value chains, technological progress, and environmental pollution: Inequality towards developing countries.

The production and trade activities of global value chains (GVC) increasingly contribute to the gross domestic product (GDP) of developing countries. However, while the development of domestic economies brings about technological progress, it also may have negative consequences such as environmental pollution. Technological progress can be conducive to reducing pollution emissions. Our motive is to realize the dual effects of technological progress and energy saving and emission reduction in developing countries' participation in the global value chain through research on GVC, technological progress and environmental pollution. Improving environmental quality through technological advances and reducing the adverse effects of inequality in trade status, enabling developing countries to obtain dividends from participating in the value chain as much as possible, and mitigating the adverse effects of environmental pollution during development. And lay the policy foundation for developing countries to go green. However, most of the current researches focus on the relationship between GVC and technological progress or GVC and environmental pollution, and the research on the relationship between the three is scarce. We use the WIOD database to try to find the relationship between developing country global value chain participation, technological progress and environmental pollution. Wang's method for GVC embedding is adopted for empirical research on input and output, energy utilization, high-skilled labor ratio, and pollution emissions in five typical developing countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Mexico. The relationships among the degree of participation in GVC, technological progress, and environmental pollution is studied from the perspective of industries in each country. The outcomes indicate that there is a value chain threshold in developing countries. When the degree of participation in a value chain is lower than the threshold, technological progress can result in an increase in pollution; otherwise, technological progress can reduce emissions. These results provide a theoretical basis and practical suggestions for developing countries to realize their own energy conservation, emission reductions, and green development while participating in globalized value chains. However, because the data related to the WIOD database is limited to 1995-2009, there are a few flaws in data integrity, which is also a challenge we face.

Export trade, embodied carbon emissions, and environmental pollution: An empirical analysis of China's high- and new-technology industries.

China's export trade has been expanding steadily in recent years, significantly increasing resource consumption and environmental pollution. High- and new-technology industries are essential for achieving sustainable economic development and improving environmental quality. This study employs a multi-regional input-output model to estimate the economic benefits and environmental costs of export trade in high- and new-technology industries. Then, it analyzes the impact of economic benefits and technological levels on environmental pollution using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model. An input-output multi-objective linear programming model and a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II are adopted to combine economic development with environmental pollution and determine the optimal path for export trade. The results show that technological progress in China's high- and new-technology industries is conducive to reducing embodied carbon emissions in developed countries while increasing emissions in developing countries. Moreover, a nonlinear three-stage accompanying relationship exists between the economic benefits and environmental costs of high- and new-technology exports; this is because exports with low economic benefits generate fewer carbon emissions whereas exports with high economic benefits generate significant carbon emissions. An increase in exports with ultra-high economic benefits will generate excessive embodied carbon emissions that hinder coordinated economic-environmental development. Lastly, technological progress in the electrical and optical equipment sector can effectively promote pollution reduction; thus, it should be further developed to improve the comprehensive benefits of exports.

Toward low-carbon development: Assessing emissions-reduction pressure among Chinese cities.

Assessing emissions-reduction pressure among Chinese cities is a critical task for local governments formulating and implementing environmental policies. From the perspectives of carbon intensity and carbon inequality, this study develops an improved carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions-reduction index to quantify emissions-reduction pressure on 284 cities in China. Results indicate that driven by the decrease of overall carbon intensity and the rise of inter-city carbon inequality, emissions-reduction pressure on 41.38% of provinces and 49.65% of cities was greater than the overall national level; emissions-reduction pressure on 52.35% of cities exceeded the provincial average level. The central government determines national emissions-reduction pressure by adjusting carbon-inequality tolerance between cities and determines carbon-inequality preference based on population and economic output principles. These determinations become benchmarks for local governments' CO2 emissions-reduction pressure. Provinces and cities that exceed benchmarks become foci for promoting energy savings, emissions reduction, and low-carbon development in the future.

China's natural resources balance sheet from the perspective of government oversight: Based on the analysis of governance and accounting attributes.

One of the top priorities of the Chinese government's oversight is to address the conflicts between economic growth and resource consumption and between economic development and ecological damage. In this regard, the advocacy and compilation of the natural resources balance sheet can boost the efficiency of the government's oversight and improve the quality of resource management. However, China's natural resources balance sheet is still at an exploratory stage, lacking the theoretical framework of balance sheet preparation, preparatory ideas, and a reporting system, which must be established urgently. First, the study states the purpose of compiling the natural resources balance sheet, and, subsequently, analyzes the theoretical basis, framework system, preparatory ideas, and sample sheet format, thereby offering theoretical and methodological support for its preparation. Moreover, the development, functions, deficits, and future development of the balance sheet are analyzed in the context of the Chinese system, which provides theoretical and methodological support for the preparation of the natural resources balance sheet and government oversight.

A two-stage DEA approach for environmental efficiency measurement.

The slacks-based measure (SBM) model based on the constant returns to scale has achieved some good results in addressing the undesirable outputs, such as waste water and water gas, in measuring environmental efficiency. However, the traditional SBM model cannot deal with the scenario in which desirable outputs are constant. Based on the axiomatic theory of productivity, this paper carries out a systematic research on the SBM model considering undesirable outputs, and further expands the SBM model from the perspective of network analysis. The new model can not only perform efficiency evaluation considering undesirable outputs, but also calculate desirable and undesirable outputs separately. The latter advantage successfully solves the "dependence" problem of outputs, that is, we can not increase the desirable outputs without producing any undesirable outputs. The following illustration shows that the efficiency values obtained by two-stage approach are smaller than those obtained by the traditional SBM model. Our approach provides a more profound analysis on how to improve environmental efficiency of the decision making units.

A risk measurement study evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on China's financial market using the QR-SGED-EGARCH model.

Due to the significant impact of COVID-19, financial markets in various countries have undergone drastic fluctuations. Accurately measuring risk in the financial market and mastering the changing rules of the stock market are of great importance to macro-control and financial market management of the government. This paper focuses on the return rate of the Shanghai Composite Index. Using the SGED-EGARCH(1,1) model as a foundation, a quantile regression is introduced to establish the QR-SGED-EGARCH(1,1) model. Further, the corresponding value at risk (VaR) is calculated for a crisis and stable period within each model. To better compare the models, the Cornish-Fisher expansion model is included for comparison. According to the Kupiec test, VaR values calculated by the QR-SGED-EGARCH(1,1) model are superior to other models at different confidence levels most of the time. In addition, to account for the VaR method's inability to effectively measure tail extreme risk, the expected shortfall (ES) method is introduced. The constructed model is used to calculate the corresponding ES values during different periods. According to the evaluation index, the ES values calculated by the QR-SGED-EGARCH(1,1) model have a better effect during a crisis period with the model showing higher accuracy and robustness. It is of great significance for China to better measure financial risk under the impact of a sudden crisis.

Financial inclusion, renewable energy consumption, and inclusive growth: cross-country evidence.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the global economy to varying degrees. Coupled with the widening gap caused by the unbalanced distribution of resources, the sustainability and inclusiveness of economic growth have been challenged. To explore the influencing factors of the level of economic inclusive growth among different countries, we used the spatial Durbin model to analyze the relationship between financial inclusion, renewable energy consumption, and inclusive growth based on panel data of 40 countries from 2010 to 2020. The results indicate a spatial autocorrelation in inclusive growth; financial inclusion and renewable energy consumption both contributed positively to inclusive growth, while industrial structure upgrading played a negative moderating role between domestic renewable energy consumption and inclusive growth. The results of this study provide insights into achieving better inclusive growth and maintaining sustainable and balanced economic development. Based on this, policy recommendations such as expanding the coverage of inclusive finance, optimizing the energy structure, and changing the economic development model are put forward.

The development of China's Circular Economy: From the perspective of environmental regulation.

While achieving rapid economic growth, the pressure caused by environmental pollution and resource depletion has increasingly become a bottleneck in China's economic development, making the development of a circular economy particularly important. The extant literature has not focused on the influence of environmental regulation on a circular economy performance. This study uses the metafrontier global direction distance function (Metafrontier-Global-DDF) super-efficiency data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to estimate the circular economy performance and decomposition values of circular economy growth rate in 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018. It further tests the influences of environmental regulations on circular economy performance and its influencing mechanism. The results show that environmental regulation can play a linear role in promoting the performance of the circular economy, mainly through the "catch-up effect," while "innovation effect" and "demonstration effect" have not yet played an effective role. This study provides evidence for the performance evaluation of the circular economy in China and the relationship between environmental regulations and circular economy performance. The future development of a circular economy still needs the active development of circular economy technology in each city. The role of the "innovation effect" and "demonstration effect" in improving the performance of the circular economy should be further enhanced.