Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision to Prevent HIV: Modelling Age Prioritization in Namibia.

Voluntary Medical Male circumcision (VMMC) has been part of prevention in Namibia since 2009. Yet, as of 2013, VMMC coverage among 15- to 24-year-olds was estimated at less than 22%. Program data suggests uptake of VMMC below age 15 is lower than expected, given the age distribution of the eligible population. Nearly 85% of VMMCs were for males between ages 15 and 29, while boys 10-14 years were referred outside the program. This analysis uses the Decision Makers Program Planning Tool to understand the impact of age prioritization on circumcision in Namibia. Results indicate that circumcising males aged 20-29 reduced HIV incidence most rapidly, while focusing on ages 15-24 was more cost effective and produced greater magnitude of impact. Providing services to those under 15 could increase VMMC volume 67% while introducing Early Infant Medical Circumcision could expand coverage. This exercise supported a review of VMMC strategies and implementation, with Namibia increasing coverage among 10- to 14-year-olds nearly 20 times from 2016 to 2017.

Scaling Up Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention for Adolescents and Young Adult Men: A Modeling Analysis of Implementation and Impact in Selected Countries.

Background: The new World Health Organization and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS strategic framework for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) aims to increase VMMC coverage among males aged 10-29 years in priority settings to 90% by 2021. We use mathematical modeling to assess the likelihood that selected countries will achieve this objective, given their historical VMMC progress and current implementation options. Methods: We use the Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit, version 2, to examine 4 ambitious but feasible scenarios for scaling up VMMC coverage from 2017 through 2021, inclusive in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Results: Tanzania is the only country that would reach the goal of 90% VMMC coverage in 10- to 29-year-olds by the end of 2021 in the scenarios assessed, and this was true in 3 of the scenarios studied. Mozambique, South Africa, and Lesotho would come close to reaching the objective only in the most ambitious scenario examined. Conclusions: Major changes in VMMC implementation in most countries will be required to increase the proportion of circumcised 10- to 29-year-olds to 90% by the end of 2021. Scaling up VMMC coverage in males aged 10-29 years will require significantly increasing the number of circumcisions provided to 10- to 14-year-olds and 15- to 29-year-olds.

The voluntary medical male circumcision Site Capacity and Productivity Assessment Tool (SCPT): An innovative visual management tool to optimize site service delivery.

Given constrained funding for HIV, achieving global goals on VMMC scale-up requires that providers improve service delivery operations and use labor and capital inputs as efficiently as possible to produce as many quality VMMCs as feasible. The Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Site Capacity and Productivity Assessment Tool (SCPT) is an electronic visual management tool developed to help VMMC service providers to understand and improve their site's performance. The SCPT allows VMMC providers to: 1) track the most important human resources and capital inputs to VMMC service delivery, 2) strategically plan site capacity and targets, and 3) monitor key site-level VMMC service delivery performance indicators. To illustrate a real-world application of the SCPT, we present selected data from two provinces in Mozambique-Manica and Tete, where the SCPT was piloted We looked at the data prior to the introduction of SCPT (October 2014 to August 2016), and during the period when the tool began to be utilized (September 2016 to September 2017). The tool was implemented as part of a broader VMMC site optimization strategy that VMMC implementers in Mozambique put in place to maximize programmatic impact. Routine program data for Manica and Tete from October 2014 to September 2017 showcase the turnaround of the VMMC program that accompanied the implementation of the SCPT together with the other components of the VMMC site optimizatio strategy. From October 2016, there was a dramatic increase in the number of VMMCs performed. The number of fixed service delivery sites providing VMMC services was expanded, and each fixed site extended service delivery by performing VMMCs in outreach sites. Alignment between site targets and the number of VMMCs performed improved from October 2016. Utilization rates stabilized between October 2016 and September 2017, with VMMCs performed closely tracking VMMC site capacity in most sites. The SCPT is designed to address the need for site level data for programmatic decision-making during site planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. Deployment of the SCPT can help VMMC providers monitor the performance of VMMC service delivery sites and improve their performance. We recommend use of the customized version of this tool and model to the need of other programs.

Estimating male circumcision coverage in 15 priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Given the importance of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in reducing HIV incidence, access to and use of quality data for programme planning and management are essential. Unfortunately, such data are currently not standardized for reliable and consistent programme use in priority countries. To redress this, the UNAIDS Reference Group (RG) on Estimates, Modelling, and Projection worked with partner Avenir Health to use the Decision Makers Program Planning Toolkit (DMPPT) 2 Online to provide estimates of VMMC coverage and to support countries to set age- and geographic-specific targets. This article describes the methods and tools used for assembling, reviewing and validating VMMC programme data as part of the 2021 Estimates process. DISCUSSION: The approach outlined for integrating VMMC data using the DMPPT2 Online required significant country engagement as well as upgrades to the DMPPT2 Online. The process brought together local-level VMMC stakeholders, for example Ministries of Health, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, the World Health Organization (WHO), VMMC implementers and so on, to review, amend and agree on historical and more recent VMMC data. The DMPPT2 Online was upgraded to align with the Spectrum and Naomi models used in the Annual HIV Estimates process. In addition, new and revised inputs were incorporated to enhance accuracy of modelled outputs. The process was successful in mobilizing stakeholders behind efforts to integrate VMMC into the annual HIV Estimates process and generating comprehensive, country-owned and validated VMMC data that will enhance programme monitoring and planning. CONCLUSIONS: VMMC programme data from most of the priority countries were successfully reviewed, updated, validated and incorporated into the annual HIV Estimates process in 2020. It is important to ensure that these data continue to be used for programme planning and management. Current and future data issues will need to be addressed, and countries will need ongoing support to do so. The integration of the DMPPT2 Online into the annual HIV Estimates process is a positive step forward in terms of streamlining country-owned planning and analytical practices for the HIV response.

Costs and Cost Drivers of Providing Option B+ Services to Mother-Baby Pairs for PMTCT of HIV in Health Centre IV Facilities in Jinja District, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) revised the 2012 guidelines on use of antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The new guidelines recommended lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women irrespective of CD4 count or clinical stage (also referred to as Option B+). Uganda started implementing Option B+ in 2012 basing on the 2012 WHO guidelines. Despite the impressive benefits of the Option B+ strategy, implementation challenges, including cost burden and mother-baby pairs lost to follow-up, threatened its overall effectiveness. The researchers were unable to identify any studies conducted to assess costs and cost drivers associated with provision of Option B+ services to mother-baby pairs in HIV care in Uganda. Therefore, this study determined costs and cost drivers of providing Option B+ services to mother-baby pairs over a two-year period (2014-2015) in selected health facilities in Jinja district, Uganda. METHODS: The estimated costs of providing Option B+ to mother-baby pairs derived from the provider perspective were evaluated at four health centres (HC) in Jinja district. A retrospective, ingredient-based costing approach was used to collect data for 2014 as base year using a standardized cost data capture tool. All costs were valued in United States dollars (USD) using the 2014 midyear exchange rate. Costs incurred in the second year (2015) were obtained by inflating the 2014 costs by the ratio of 2015 and 2014 USA Gross Domestic Product (GDP) implicit price deflator. RESULTS: The average total cost of Option B+ services per HC was 66,512.7 (range: 32,168.2-102,831.1) USD over the 2-year period. The average unit cost of Option B+ services per mother-baby pair was USD 441.9 (range: 422.5-502.6). ART for mothers was the biggest driver of total mean costs (percent contribution: 62.6%; range: 56.0%-65.5%) followed by facility personnel (percent contribution: 8.2%; range: 7.7%-11.6%), and facility-level monitoring and quality improvement (percent contribution: 6.0%; range: 3.2%-12.3%). Conclusions and Recommendations. ART for mothers was the major cost driver. Efforts to lower the cost of ART for PMTCT would make delivery of Option B+ affordable and sustainable.

Using mathematical modeling to inform health policy: A case study from voluntary medical male circumcision scale-up in eastern and southern Africa and proposed framework for success.

BACKGROUND: Modeling contributes to health program planning by allowing users to estimate future outcomes that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. However, modeling results are often not easily translated into practical policies. This paper examines the barriers and enabling factors that can allow models to better inform health decision-making. DESCRIPTION: The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) and its successor, DMPPT 2, are illustrative examples of modeling tools that have been used to inform health policy. Their use underpinned Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) scale-up for HIV prevention in southern and eastern Africa. Both examine the impact and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up, with DMPPT used initially in global advocacy and DMPPT 2 then providing VMMC coverage estimates by client age and subnational region for use in country-specific program planning. Their application involved three essential steps: identifying and engaging a wide array of stakeholders from the outset, reaching consensus on key assumptions and analysis plans, and convening data validation meetings with critical stakeholders. The subsequent DMPPT 2 Online is a user-friendly tool for in-country modeling analyses and continuous program planning and monitoring. LESSONS LEARNED: Through three iterations of the DMPPT applied to VMMC, a comprehensive framework with six steps was identified: (1) identify a champion, (2) engage stakeholders early and often, (3) encourage consensus, (4) customize analyses, (5), build capacity, and (6) establish a plan for sustainability. This framework could be successfully adapted to other HIV prevention programs to translate modeling results to policy and programming. CONCLUSIONS: Models can be used to mobilize support, strategically plan, and monitor key programmatic elements, but they can also help inform policy environments in which programs are conceptualized and implemented to achieve results. The ways in which modeling has informed VMMC programs and policy may be applicable to an array of other health interventions.

Data triangulation to estimate age-specific coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention in four Kenyan counties.

BACKGROUND: Kenya is 1 of 14 priority countries in Africa scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention following the recommendations of the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. To inform VMMC target setting, we modeled the impact of circumcising specific client age groups across several Kenyan geographic areas. METHODS: The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2 (DMPPT 2) was applied in Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori counties. Initial modeling done in mid-2016 showed coverage estimates above 100% in age groups and geographic areas where demand for VMMC continued to be high. On the basis of information obtained from country policy makers and VMMC program implementers, we adjusted circumcision coverage for duplicate reporting, county-level population estimates, migration across county boundaries for VMMC services, and replacement of traditional circumcision with circumcisions in the VMMC program. To address residual inflated coverage following these adjustments we applied county-specific correction factors computed by triangulating model results with coverage estimates from population surveys. RESULTS: A program record review identified duplicate reporting in Homa Bay, Kisumu, and Siaya. Using county population estimates from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, we found that adjusting for migration and correcting for replacement of traditional circumcision with VMMC led to lower estimates of 2016 male circumcision coverage especially for Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Even after addressing these issues, overestimation of 2016 male circumcision coverage persisted, especially in Homa Bay. We estimated male circumcision coverage in 2016 by applying correction factors. Modeled estimates for 2016 circumcision coverage for the 10- to 14-year age group ranged from 50% in Homa Bay to approximately 90% in Kisumu. Results for the 15- to 19-year age group suggest almost complete coverage in Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Coverage for the 20- to 24-year age group ranged from about 80% in Siaya to about 90% in Homa Bay, coverage for those aged 25-29 years ranged from about 60% in Siaya to 80% in Migori, and coverage in those aged 30-34 years ranged from about 50% in Siaya to about 70% in Migori. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis points to solutions for some of the data issues encountered in Kenya. Kenya is the first country in which these data issues have been encountered because baseline circumcision rates were high. We anticipate that some of the modeling methods we developed for Kenya will be applicable in other countries.

Correction: Assessing Progress, Impact, and Next Steps in Rolling Out Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in 14 Priority Countries in Eastern and Southern Africa through 2014.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158767.].

Modeling Costs and Impacts of Introducing Early Infant Male Circumcision for Long-Term Sustainability of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been shown to be an effective prevention strategy against HIV infection in males [1-3]. Since 2007, the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported VMMC programs in 14 priority countries in Africa. Today several of these countries are preparing to transition their VMMC programs from a scale-up and expansion phase to a maintenance phase. As they do so, they must consider the best approaches to sustain high levels of male circumcision in the population. The two alternatives under consideration are circumcising adolescents 10-14 years old over the long term or integrating early infant male circumcision (EIMC) into maternal and child health programs. The paper presents an analysis, using the Decision Makers Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), of the estimated cost and impact of introducing EIMC into existing VMMC programs in several countries in eastern and southern Africa. Limited cost data exist for the implementation of EIMC, but preliminary studies, such as the one detailed in Mangenah, et al. [4-5], suggest that the cost of EIMC may be less than that of adolescent and adult male circumcision. If this is the case, then adding EIMC to the VMMC program will increase the number of circumcisions that need to be performed but will not increase the total cost of the program over the long term. In addition, we found that a delayed or slow start-up of EIMC would not substantially reduce the impact of adding it to the program or increase cumulative long-term costs, which should make introduction of EIMC more feasible and attractive to countries contemplating such a program innovation.

Assessing Progress, Impact, and Next Steps in Rolling Out Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in 14 Priority Countries in Eastern and Southern Africa through 2014.

BACKGROUND: In 2007, the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries across eastern and southern Africa for scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services. Several years into this effort, we reflect on progress. METHODS: Using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) 2.1, we assessed age-specific impact, cost-effectiveness, and coverage attributable to circumcisions performed through 2014. We also compared impact of actual progress to that of achieving 80% coverage among men ages 15-49 in 12 VMMC priority countries and Nyanza Province, Kenya. We populated the models with age-disaggregated VMMC service statistics and with population, mortality, and HIV incidence and prevalence projections exported from country-specific Spectrum/Goals files. We assumed each country achieved UNAIDS' 90-90-90 treatment targets. RESULTS: More than 9 million VMMCs were conducted through 2014: 43% of the estimated 20.9 million VMMCs required to reach 80% coverage by the end of 2015. The model assumed each country reaches the UNAIDS targets, and projected that VMMCs conducted through 2014 will avert 240,000 infections by the end of 2025, compared to 1.1 million if each country had reached 80% coverage by the end of 2015. The median estimated cost per HIV infection averted was $4,400. Nyanza Province in Kenya, the 11 priority regions in Tanzania, and Uganda have reached or are approaching MC coverage targets among males ages 15-24, while coverage in other age groups is lower. Across all countries modeled, more than half of the projected HIV infections averted were attributable to circumcising 10- to 19-year-olds. CONCLUSIONS: The priority countries have made considerable progress in VMMC scale-up, and VMMC remains a cost-effective strategy for epidemic impact, even assuming near-universal HIV diagnosis, treatment coverage, and viral suppression. Examining circumcision coverage by five-year age groups will inform countries' decisions about next steps.

Correction: Modeling Costs and Impacts of Introducing Early Infant Male Circumcision for Long-Term Sustainability of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159167.].

Correction: Assessing Progress, Impact, and Next Steps in Rolling Out Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in 14 Priority Countries in Eastern and Southern Africa through 2014.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158767.].