The epidemiology and characteristics of acute kidney injury in the Southeast Asia intensive care unit: a prospective multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Etiologies for acute kidney injury (AKI) vary by geographic region and socioeconomic status. While considerable information is now available on AKI in the Americas, Europe and China, large comprehensive epidemiologic studies of AKI from Southeast Asia (SEA) are still lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate the rates and characteristics of AKI among intensive care unit (ICU) patients in Thailand. METHODS: We conducted the largest prospective observational study of AKI in SEA. The data were serially collected on the first 28 days of ICU admission by registration in electronic web-based format. AKI status was defined by full Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcome criteria. We used AKI occurrence as the clinical outcome and explored the impact of modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors on the development and progression of AKI. RESULTS: We enrolled 5476 patients from 17 ICU centres across Thailand from February 2013 to July 2015. After excluding patients with end-stage renal disease and those with incomplete data, AKI occurred in 2471 of 4668 patients (52.9%). Overall, the maximum AKI stage was Stage 1 in 7.5%, Stage 2 in 16.5% and Stage 3 in 28.9%. In the multivariable adjusted model, we found that older age, female sex, admission to a regional hospital, medical ICU, high body mass index, primary diagnosis of cardiovascular-related disease and infectious disease, higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, non-renal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores, underlying anemia and use of vasopressors were all independent risk factors for AKI development. CONCLUSIONS: In Thai ICUs, AKI is very common. Identification of risk factors of AKI development will help in the development of a prognostic scoring model for this population and should help in decision making for timely intervention, ultimately leading to better clinical outcomes.

Predictors of faster progression in chronic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVE: To study the factors associated with faster progression in chronic kidney disease. MATERIAL AND METHOD: A cohort study of CKD stage 2 to 4patients of the CKD clinic at Thungsong Hospital between 2008 and 2011 was done. At the end of the study, the patients were classified as faster or slower group according to rate of GFR decline. Apart from descriptive analysis, univariate and multivariate analysis were used to perform correlations analysis between rate of eGFR decline and each variable. RESULTS: Two hundred three patients were enrolled andfollowed-up for three years. The average rate of eGFR decline (SD) was 2.25 (3.65) mL/min/1.73 m2 per year In univariate analysis, factors that correlated with rate of eGFR decline were systolic blood pressure (r = 0.155, p = 0.027), serum albumin (r = -0.172, p = 0.042), serum bicarbonate (r = -0.158, p = 0.046, age (r = -0.157, p = 0.025), and proteinuria (r = 0.276, p<0.001). Furthermore, logistic regression analysis revealed the strong predictors of faster progression were systolic blood pressure (OR = 1.025, 95% CI = 1.003-1.047, p = 0.025) and particularly, proteinuria (OR = 1.887, 95% CI = 1.325-2.688, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Among the factors that associated with faster eGFR decline, only systolic blood pressure and especially, proteinuria were powerful predictors of faster progression in chronic kidney disease.

SEA-MAKE score as a tool for predicting major adverse kidney events in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury: results from the SEA-AKI study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common problem in critically ill patients and associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Recently, Major Adverse Kidney Events (MAKE) were introduced as important kidney endpoints. If these endpoints can be predicted, then it may help the physicians to identify high-risk patients and provide the opportunity to have targeted preventive therapy. The objective of this study was to create a simplified scoring system to predict MAKE within 28 days among AKI patients in ICU. METHODS: This is a prospective web-based multicenter cohort study that was conducted in adults who were admitted to the ICU in 17 centers across Thailand from 2013 to 2015. A predicting score was derived from the regression equation with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to evaluate the diagnostic test and produce predictive models. Internal validation was obtained using the bootstrapping method. RESULTS: From 5071 cases, 2856 (56%) had AKI. Among those with AKI, 1749 (61%) had MAKE. Among those that have MAKE, there were 1175 (41.4%) deaths, 414 (14.4%) were on dialysis and 1154 (40.7%) had non-recovery renal function. The simplified score points of low Glasgow coma scale was 3, tachypnea was 1, vasopressor use was 1, on mechanical ventilation was 2, oliguria was 2, serum creatinine rising ≥ 3 times was 5, high blood urea nitrogen was 3, low hematocrit was 2, and thrombocytopenia was 1. The area under ROC curve for optimism corrected performance was 0.80 (0.78, 0.81). When the cut-off value was 7, the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and positive predictive values were 0.75, 0.76, 3.10, and 0.84, respectively. When the scoring system was calibrated, the α intercept and ß slope were 1.001 and 0, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SEA-MAKE scoring system is a new simplified clinical tool that can be used to predict major adverse kidney events in AKI patients. The simplicity of the scoring system is highly likely to be used in resource-limited settings. However, external validation is necessary before widespread use.

THAI-ICU score as a simplified severity score for critically ill patients in a resource limited setting: Result from SEA-AKI study group.

PURPOSE: To create a simplified ICU scoring system to predict mortality in critically ill patients that can be feasibly applied in resource limited setting with good performance of predicting hospital mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study from prospective cohort was created consisting of adult patients who were admitted to an ICU of 17 centers across Thailand from 2013 to 2015. A development cohort (n = 3503) and a validation cohort (n = 1909) were randomly selected from the available enrollment data. RESULTS: In the development cohort, the predictors of the simplified score 6 variable model were low Glasgow coma score (GCS), low mean arterial pressure or need vasopressor, positive net-fluid balance, tachypnea, thrombocytopenia, and high blood urea nitrogen. In the validation study of THAI-ICU, AUC (95%CI) was 0.81(0.78-0.83). At the optimum cutoff value of 9; the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio were 72%, 73%, and 2.72 respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow - C statistic was 13.5 (p = .2) and the Brier score 95% CI was 0.16 (0.15, 0.17). CONCLUSIONS: The THAI-ICU score is a new simplified severity score for predicting hospital mortality. The simplicity of the score will increase the possibility to apply in resource limited settings.

Thai-Lepto-on-admission probability (THAI-LEPTO) score as an early tool for initial diagnosis of leptospirosis: Result from Thai-Lepto AKI study group.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is one of the most important zoonosis in the tropics. Currently, specific laboratory diagnostic test for leptospirosis such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or direct culture cannot be applied at the primary care setting especially in the resource- limited countries. Therefore, clinical presentation and laboratory examination are still the primary diagnostic tools for leptospirosis. OBJECTIVES: To detect clinical factors for predicting leptospirosis in suspected cases, and to create a clinical prediction score (THAI-LEPTO) that is practical and easy to use in general practice while awaiting laboratory results. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a prospective multicenter study with a development and a validation cohort of patients presenting with clinical suspicion of leptospirosis as per the WHO clinical criteria. The development cohort was conducted at 11 centers in 8 provinces around Thailand. The validation cohort was conducted at 4 centers in 1 province from the Northeastern part of Thailand. Leptospirosis confirmed cases were defined if any one of the tests were positive: microscopic agglutination test, direct culture, or PCR technique. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of leptospirosis. The clinical prediction score was derived from the regression coefficients (original) or from the odds ratio values (simplified). We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to evaluate the diagnostic ability of our score and to find the optimal cutoff values of the score. We used a validation cohort to evaluate the accuracy of our methods. RESULTS: In the development cohort, we enrolled 221 leptospirosis suspected cases and analyzed 211. Among those, 105 (50%) were leptospirosis confirmed cases. In logistic regression adjusted for age, gender, day of fever, and one clinical factor at a time, leptospirosis group had more hypotension OR = 2.76 (95% CI 1.07-7.10), jaundice OR = 3.40 (95%CI 1.48-8.44), muscle pain OR = 2.12 (95%CI 1.06-4.26), acute kidney injury (AKI) OR = 2.90 (95%CI 1.31-6.15), low hemoglobin OR = 3.48 (95%CI 1.72-7.04), and hypokalemia with hyponatremia OR = 3.56 (95%CI 1.17-10.84) than non-leptospirosis group. The abovementioned factors along with neutrophilia and pulmonary opacity were used in the development of the score. The simplified score with 7 variables was the summation of the odds ratio values as follows: hypotension 3, jaundice 2, muscle pain 2, AKI 1.5, low hemoglobin 3, hypokalemia with hyponatremia 3, and neutrophilia 1. The score showed the highest discriminatory power with area under the curve (AUC) 0.82 (95%CI 0.67-0.97) on fever day 3-4. In the validation cohort we enrolled 96 leptospirosis suspected cases and analyzed 92. Of those, 69 (75%) were leptospirosis confirmed cases. The performance of the simplified score with 7 variables at a cutoff of 4 was AUC 0.78 (95%CI 0.68-0.89); sensitivity 73.5; specificity 73.7; positive predictive value 87.8; negative predictive value 58.3. CONCLUSIONS: THAI-LEPTO score is a newly developed diagnostic tool for early presumptive diagnosis of leptospirosis in patients presenting with severe clinical suspicion of the disease. The score can easily be applied at the point of care while awaiting confirmatory laboratory results. Each predictor used has been supported by evidence of clinical and pathophysiological correlation.

Neutrophil Gelatinase Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) in Leptospirosis Acute Kidney Injury: A Multicenter Study in Thailand.

AKI is one of the most serious complications of leptospirosis, an important zoonosis in the tropics. Recently, NGAL, one of the novel AKI biomarkers, is extensively studied in various specific settings such as sepsis, cardiac surgery, and radiocontrast nephropathy. In this multicenter study, we aimed to study the role of NGAL as an early marker and an outcome predictor of leptospirosis associated AKI. Patients who presented with clinical suspiciousness of leptospirosis were prospectively enrolled in 9 centers from August 2012 to November 2014. The first day of enrollment was the first day of clinical suspicious leptospirosis. Blood and urine samples were serially collected on the first three days and day 7 after enrollment. We used three standard techniques (microscopic agglutination test, direct culture, and PCR technique) to confirm the diagnosis of leptospirosis. KDIGO criteria were used for AKI diagnosis. Recovery was defined as alive and not requiring dialysis during hospitalization or maintaining maximum KDIGO stage at hospital discharge. Of the 221 recruited cases, 113 cases were leptospirosis confirmed cases. Thirty seven percent developed AKI. Median uNGAL and pNGAL levels in those developing AKI were significantly higher than in patients not developing AKI [253.8 (631.4) vs 24.1 (49.6) ng/ml, p < 0.001] and [1,030 (802.5) vs 192.0 (209.0) ng/ml, p < 0.001], respectively. uNGAL and pNGAL levels associated with AKI had AUC-ROC of 0.91, and 0.92, respectively. Both of urine NGAL and pNGAL level between AKI-recovery group and AKI-non recovery were comparable. From this multicenter study, uNGAL and pNGAL provided the promising result to be a marker for leptospirosis associated AKI. However, both of them did not show the potential role to be the predictor of renal recovery in this specific setting.