Patterns of SARS-CoV-2 circulation revealed by a nationwide sewage surveillance programme, the Netherlands, August 2020 to February 2022.

BackgroundSurveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater offers a near real-time tool to track circulation of SARS-CoV-2 at a local scale. However, individual measurements of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage are noisy, inherently variable and can be left-censored.AimWe aimed to infer latent virus loads in a comprehensive sewage surveillance programme that includes all sewage treatment plants (STPs) in the Netherlands and covers 99.6% of the Dutch population.MethodsWe applied a multilevel Bayesian penalised spline model to estimate time- and STP-specific virus loads based on water flow-adjusted SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR data for one to four sewage samples per week for each of the more than 300 STPs.ResultsThe model captured the epidemic upsurges and downturns in the Netherlands, despite substantial day-to-day variation in the measurements. Estimated STP virus loads varied by more than two orders of magnitude, from ca 1012 virus particles per 100,000 persons per day in the epidemic trough in August 2020 to almost 1015 per 100,000 in many STPs in January 2022. The timing of epidemics at the local level was slightly shifted between STPs and municipalities, which resulted in less pronounced peaks and troughs at the national level.ConclusionAlthough substantial day-to-day variation is observed in virus load measurements, wastewater-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 that is performed at high sampling frequency can track long-term progression of an epidemic at a local scale in near real time.

Inactivation of Trichinella muscle larvae at different time-temperature heating profiles simulating home-cooking.

BACKGROUND: Trichinellosis is caused by consumption of raw or undercooked meat containing infective Trichinella muscle larvae (ML). Only few studies on heat-inactivation of Trichinella ML are available in literature and more validated data concerning heat inactivation is needed to improve the risk estimation. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the two in vitro methods "staining" and "morphological examination" as proxies for Trichinella ML heat inactivation in comparison with the mouse bioassay method to get more insight in the relationship between heat, heating time and inactivation of Trichinella ML. The second aim was to evaluate whether these methods could replace the bioassay in the light of ongoing animal use reduction in lifescience research. Tubes containing quantified live Trichinella ML were exposed to heat profiles ranging from 40 to 80 °C. Subsequently, inactivation was evaluated using both methylene blue staining and morphological examination, which was validated by bioassay. Results were used to model Trichinella inactivation. RESULTS: Trichinella muscle larvae exposed to 60 °C or higher for 12-12.5 min were not infective to mice. We found that morphological examination was more consistent with the bioassay than methylene blue staining. Modelled inactivation fitted experimental data consistently. Moreover, this study shows that larval Trichinella morphology may be used in situations where bioassays are not possible or prohibited. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between heat and inactivation of larvae obtained from this study could be used in Trichinella QMRA models to improve quantification of the risk of Trichinella infection.

High Coxiella burnetii Seroconversion Rate in Veterinary Students, the Netherlands, 2006-2010.

We examined Coxiella burnetii seroconversion rates by measuring C. burnetii IgG among 2 cohorts of veterinary students. During follow-up of 118 seronegative veterinary students, 23 students seroconverted. Although the clinical importance of the presence of antibodies is unknown, veterinary students should be informed about the potential risks for Q fever.

Insights into Livestock-Related Microbial Concentrations in Air at Residential Level in a Livestock Dense Area.

Microbial air pollution from livestock farms has raised concerns regarding public health. Little is known about airborne livestock-related microbial levels in residential areas. We aimed to increase insights into this issue. Air measurements were performed in 2014 and 2015 at 61 residential sites in The Netherlands. Quantitative-PCR was used to assess DNA concentrations of selected bacteria (commensals: Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus spp.; a zoonotic pathogen: Campylobacter jejuni) and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes ( tetW, mecA) in airborne dust. Mixed models were used to explore spatial associations (temporal adjusted) with livestock-related characteristics of the surroundings. DNA from commensals and AMR genes was detectable even at sites furthest away from farms (1200 m), albeit at lower levels. Concentrations, distinctly different between sites, were strongly associated with the density of farms in the surroundings especially with poultry and pigs. C. jejuni DNA was less prevalent (42% of samples positive). Presence of C. jejuni was solely associated with poultry (OR: 4.7 (95% CI: 1.7-14), high versus low poultry density). Residential exposure to livestock-related bacteria and AMR genes was demonstrated. Identified associations suggest contribution of livestock farms to microbial air pollution in general and attribution differences between farm types. This supports the plausibility of recent studies showing health effects in relation to residential proximity to farms.

Assessing the Effectiveness of On-Farm and Abattoir Interventions in Reducing Pig Meat-Borne Salmonellosis within E.U. Member States.

As part of the evidence base for the development of national control plans for Salmonella spp. in pigs for E.U. Member States, a quantitative microbiological risk assessment was funded to support the scientific opinion required by the EC from the European Food Safety Authority. The main aim of the risk assessment was to assess the effectiveness of interventions implemented on-farm and at the abattoir in reducing human cases of pig meat-borne salmonellosis, and how the effects of these interventions may vary across E.U. Member States. Two case study Member States have been chosen to assess the effect of the interventions investigated. Reducing both breeding herd and slaughter pig prevalence were effective in achieving reductions in the number of expected human illnesses in both case study Member States. However, there is scarce evidence to suggest which specific on-farm interventions could achieve consistent reductions in either breeding herd or slaughter pig prevalence. Hypothetical reductions in feed contamination rates were important in reducing slaughter pig prevalence for the case study Member State where prevalence of infection was already low, but not for the high-prevalence case study. The most significant reductions were achieved by a 1- or 2-log decrease of Salmonella contamination of the carcass post-evisceration; a 1-log decrease in average contamination produced a 90% reduction in human illness. The intervention analyses suggest that abattoir intervention may be the most effective way to reduce human exposure to Salmonella spp. However, a combined farm/abattoir approach would likely have cumulative benefits. On-farm intervention is probably most effective at the breeding-herd level for high-prevalence Member States; once infection in the breeding herd has been reduced to a low enough level, then feed and biosecurity measures would become increasingly more effective.

A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union.

A farm-to-consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter-pig prevalence and the impact of control measures on the risk of human Salmonella infection. A key consideration during the QMRA development was the characterization of variability between E.U. Member States (MSs), and therefore a generic MS model was developed that accounts for differences in pig production, slaughterhouse practices, and consumption patterns. To demonstrate the parameterization of the model, four case study MSs were selected that illustrate the variability in production of pork meat and products across MSs. For the case study MSs the average probability of illness was estimated to be between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million servings given consumption of one of the three product types considered (pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausages). Further analyses of the farm-to-consumption QMRA suggest that the vast majority of human risk derives from infected pigs with a high concentration of Salmonella in their feces (≥10(4) CFU/g). Therefore, it is concluded that interventions should be focused on either decreasing the level of Salmonella in the feces of infected pigs, the introduction of a control step at the abattoir to reduce the transfer of feces to the exterior of the pig, or a control step to reduce the level of Salmonella on the carcass post-evisceration.

Characterization of the Human Risk of Salmonellosis Related to Consumption of Pork Products in Different E.U. Countries Based on a QMRA.

In response to the European Food Safety Authority's wish to assess the reduction of human cases of salmonellosis by implementing control measures at different points in the farm-to-consumption chain for pork products, a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was developed. The model simulated the occurrence of Salmonella from the farm to consumption of pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausage, respectively, and a dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of illness at consumption. The QMRA has a generic structure with a defined set of variables, whose values are changed according to the E.U. member state (MS) of interest. In this article we demonstrate the use of the QMRA in four MSs, representing different types of countries. The predicted probability of illness from the QMRA was between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million per serving across all three product types. Fermented ready-to-eat sausage imposed the highest probability of illness per serving in all countries, whereas the risks per serving of minced meat and pork chops were similar within each MS. For each of the products, the risk varied by a factor of 100 between the four MSs. The influence of lack of information for different variables was assessed by rerunning the model with alternative, more extreme, values. Out of the large number of uncertain variables, only a few of them have a strong influence on the probability of illness, in particular those describing the preparation at home and consumption.

Integrating interdisciplinary methodologies for One Health: goat farm re-implicated as the probable source of an urban Q fever outbreak, the Netherlands, 2009.

BACKGROUND: In spring 2008, a goat farm experiencing Q fever abortions ("Farm A") was identified as the probable source of a human Q fever outbreak in a Dutch town. In 2009, a larger outbreak with 347 cases occurred in the town, despite no clinical Q fever being reported from any local farm. METHODS: Our study aimed to identify the source of the 2009 outbreak by applying a combination of interdisciplinary methods, using data from several sources and sectors, to investigate seventeen farms in the area: namely, descriptive epidemiology of notified cases; collation of veterinary data regarding the seventeen farms; spatial attack rate and relative risk analyses; and GIS mapping of farms and smooth incidence of cases. We conducted further spatio-temporal analyses that integrated temporal data regarding date of onset with spatial data from an atmospheric dispersion model with the most highly suspected source at the centre. RESULTS: Our analyses indicated that Farm A was again the most likely source of infection, with persons living within 1 km of the farm at a 46 times larger risk of being a case compared to those living within 5-10 km. The spatio-temporal analyses demonstrated that about 60 - 65 % of the cases could be explained by aerosol transmission from Farm A assuming emission from week 9; these explained cases lived significantly closer to the farm than the unexplained cases (p = 0.004). A visit to Farm A revealed that there had been no particular changes in management during the spring/summer of 2009, nor any animal health problems around the time of parturition or at any other time during the year. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the probable source of the 2009 outbreak was the same farm implicated in 2008, despite animal health indicators being absent. Veterinary and public health professionals should consider farms with past as well as current history of Q fever as potential sources of human outbreaks.

Improved correlation of human Q fever incidence to modelled C. burnetii concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model.

BACKGROUND: Atmospheric dispersion models (ADMs) may help to assess human exposure to airborne pathogens. However, there is as yet limited quantified evidence that modelled concentrations are indeed associated to observed human incidence. METHODS: We correlated human Q fever (caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii) incidence data in the Netherlands to modelled concentrations from three spatial exposure models: 1) a NULL model with a uniform concentration distribution, 2) a DISTANCE model with concentrations proportional to the distance between the source and residential addresses of patients, and 3) concentrations modelled by an ADM using three simple emission profiles. We used a generalized linear model to correlate the observed incidences to modelled concentrations and validated it using cross-validation. RESULTS: ADM concentrations generally correlated the best to the incidence data. The DISTANCE model always performed significantly better than the NULL model. ADM concentrations based on wind speeds exceeding threshold values of 0 and 2 m/s performed better than those based on 4 or 6 m/s. This might indicate additional exposure to bacteria originating from a contaminated environment. CONCLUSIONS: By adding meteorological information the correlation between modelled concentration and observed incidence improved, despite using three simple emission profiles. Although additional information is needed - especially regarding emission data - these results provide a basis for the use of ADMs to predict and to visualize the spread of airborne pathogens during livestock, industry and even bio-terroristic related outbreaks or releases to a surrounding human population.

Trend analysis of Trichinella in a red fox population from a low endemic area using a validated artificial digestion and sequential sieving technique.

Freezing of fox carcasses to minimize professional hazard of infection with Echinococcus multilocularis is recommended in endemic areas, but this could influence the detection of Trichinella larvae in the same host species. A method based on artificial digestion of frozen fox muscle, combined with larva isolation by a sequential sieving method (SSM), was validated using naturally infected foxes from Latvia. The validated SSM was used to detect dead Trichinella muscle larvae (ML) in frozen muscle samples of 369 red foxes from the Netherlands, of which one fox was positive (0.067 larvae per gram). This result was compared with historical Trichinella findings in Dutch red foxes. Molecular analysis using 5S PCR showed that both T. britovi and T. nativa were present in the Latvian foxes, without mixed infections. Of 96 non-frozen T. britovi ML, 94% was successfully sequenced, whereas this was the case for only 8.3% of 72 frozen T. britovi ML. The single Trichinella sp. larva that was recovered from the positive Dutch fox did not yield PCR product, probably due to severe freeze-damage. In conclusion, the SSM presented in this study is a fast and effective method to detect dead Trichinella larvae in frozen meat. We showed that the Trichinella prevalence in Dutch red fox was 0.27% (95% CI 0.065-1.5%), in contrast to 3.9% in the same study area fifteen years ago. Moreover, this study demonstrated that the efficacy of 5S PCR for identification of Trichinella britovi single larvae from frozen meat is not more than 8.3%.

Infection dynamics following experimental challenge of pigs orally dosed with different stages of two archetypal genotypes of Toxoplasma gondii.

Toxoplasma gondii is a food-borne zoonotic parasite widespread in a variety of hosts, including humans. With a majority of infections in Europe estimated to be meat-borne, pork, as one of the most consumed meats worldwide, represents a potential risk for consumers. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the progress of T. gondii infection and tissue tropism in experimentally infected pigs, using different T. gondii isolates and infectious stages, i.e. tissue cysts or oocysts. Twenty-four pigs were allocated to treatment in four groups of six, with each group inoculated orally with an estimated low dose of either 400 oocysts or 10 tissue cysts of two European T. gondii isolates, a type II and a type III isolate. The majority of pigs seroconverted two weeks post-inoculation. Pigs infected with the type III isolate had significantly higher levels of anti-T. gondii antibodies compared to those infected with the type II isolate. Histopathological exams revealed reactive hyperplasia of the lymphatic tissue of all pigs. Additionally, a selected set of nine tissues was collected during necropsy at 50 dpi from each of the remaining 22 pigs for T. gondii DNA detection by quantitative real-time PCR. A positive result was obtained in 29.8 % (59/139) of tested tissues. The brain was identified as the most frequently positive tissue in 63.6 % (14/22) of the animals. In contrast, liver samples tested negative in all animals. The highest mean parasite load, calculated by interpolating the average Cq values on the standard curve made of ten-fold serial dilutions of the genomic DNA, corresponding to 100 to 104 tachyzoites/µL, was observed in shoulder musculature with an estimated concentration of 84.4 [0.0-442.5] parasites per gram of tissue. The study highlights the variability in clinical signs and tissue distribution of T. gondii in pigs based on the combination of parasite stages and strains, with type III isolates, particularly oocysts, causing a stronger antibody response and higher tissue parasite burden. These findings suggest the need for further investigation of type III isolates to better understand their potential risks to humans.

High quality of SARS-CoV-2 molecular diagnostics in a diverse laboratory landscape through supported benchmark testing and External Quality Assessment.

A two-step strategy combining assisted benchmark testing (entry controls) and External Quality Assessments (EQAs) with blinded simulated clinical specimens to enhance and maintain the quality of nucleic acid amplification testing was developed. This strategy was successfully applied to 71 diagnostic laboratories in The Netherlands when upscaling the national diagnostic capacity during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The availability of benchmark testing in combination with advice for improvement substantially enhanced the quality of the laboratory testing procedures for SARS-CoV-2 detection. The three subsequent EQA rounds demonstrated high quality testing with regard to specificity (99.6% correctly identified) and sensitivity (93.3% correctly identified). Even with the implementation of novel assays, changing workflows using diverse equipment and a high degree of assay heterogeneity, the overall high quality was maintained using this two-step strategy. We show that in contrast to the limited value of Cq value for absolute proxies of viral load, these Cq values can, in combination with metadata on strategies and techniques, provide valuable information for laboratories to improve their procedures. In conclusion, our two-step strategy (preparation phase followed by a series of EQAs) is a rapid and flexible system capable of scaling, improving, and maintaining high quality diagnostics even in a rapidly evolving (e.g. pandemic) situation.

A predictive risk map for human leptospirosis guiding further investigations in brown rats and surface water.

Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by the spirochete Leptospira spp. It is often not clear why certain areas appear to be hotspots for human leptospirosis. Therefore, a predictive risk map for the Netherlands was developed and assessed, based on a random forest model for human leptospirosis incidence levels with various environmental factors and rat density as variables. Next, it was tested whether misclassifications of the risk map could be explained by the prevalence of Leptospira spp. in brown rats. Three recreational areas were chosen, and rats (≥25/location) were tested for Leptospira spp. Concurrently, it was investigated whether Leptospira spp. prevalence in brown rats was associated with Leptospira DNA concentration in surface water, to explore the usability of this parameter in future studies. Approximately 1 L of surface water sample was collected from 10 sites and was tested for Leptospira spp. Although the model predicted the locations of patients relatively well, this study showed that the prevalence of Leptospira spp. infection in rats may be an explaining variable that could improve the predictive model performance. Surface water samples were all negative, even if they had been taken at sites with a high Leptospira spp. prevalence in rats.

Thermal Inactivation of Hepatitis E Virus in Pork Products Estimated with a Semiquantitative Infectivity Assay.

Hepatitis E virus genotype 3 (HEV-3) is a food-borne pathogen causative of hepatitis E infections in humans. In Europe, HEV-3 is mainly transmitted through the consumption of raw or undercooked pork. In order to determine the effectiveness of control measures that can be taken in the industry or by the consumer, it is pivotal to determine the infectivity of HEV present in pork products after thermal food-processing steps. First, we implemented a method for the detection of infectious HEV-3c and HEV-3e in a cell culture medium and in extracts from inoculated pork products. Next, we investigated the effect of the thermal inactivation of HEV by mimicking food-processing steps specific for dried sausage and liver homogenate matrices. After four weeks, HEV-inoculated dried sausage subjected to 21 °C or lower temperatures was still infectious. For the liver homogenate, the highest HEV-3c/e inactivation of the conditions tested was observed at 71 °C for five min or longer. Finally, our method was able to successfully detect and estimate viral loads of infectious HEV in naturally infected pig livers. Our data provide a basis for the future use of the quantitative microbial risk assessment of infectious HEV in pork products that are subjected to thermal food processing steps.

Systematic Review and Modelling of Age-Dependent Prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in Livestock, Wildlife and Felids in Europe.

Toxoplasma gondii is a zoonotic parasite of importance to both human and animal health. The parasite has various transmission routes, and the meat of infected animals appears to be a major source of human infections in Europe. We aimed to estimate T. gondii prevalence in a selection of animal host species. A systematic literature review resulting in 226 eligible publications was carried out, and serological data were analyzed using an age-dependent Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain estimates for the regional T. gondii seroprevalence in livestock, wildlife, and felids. Prevalence estimates varied between species, regions, indoor/outdoor rearing, and types of detection methods applied. The lowest estimated seroprevalence was observed for indoor-kept lagomorphs at 4.8% (95% CI: 1.8-7.5%) and the highest for outdoor-kept sheep at 63.3% (95% CI: 53.0-79.3%). Overall, T. gondii seroprevalence estimates were highest within Eastern Europe, whilst being lowest in Northern Europe. Prevalence data based on direct detection methods were scarce and were not modelled but rather directly summarized by species. The outcomes of the meta-analysis can be used to extrapolate data to areas with a lack of data and provide valuable inputs for future source attribution approaches aiming to estimate the relative contribution of different sources of T. gondii human infection.

Self-reported symptoms and health complaints associated with exposure to Ixodes ricinus-borne pathogens.

BACKGROUND: The impact of infections with tick-borne pathogens (TBPs) other than Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.) and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) on public health in Europe remains unclear. Our goal is to evaluate whether the presence of these TBPs in ticks can be associated with self-reported health complaints. METHODS: We enrolled individuals who were bitten by I. ricinus between 2012 and 2015 and collected their relevant demographic and clinical information using a self-administered online questionnaire. A total of 4163 I. ricinus ticks sent by the participants were subject to molecular analyses for detection of specific TBPs. Associations between the presence of TBPs in ticks and self-reported complaints and symptoms were evaluated by means of a stepwise approach using a generalized linear model (GLM). RESULTS: Of 17 self-reported complaints and symptoms significant in the univariate analyses, 3 had a highly significant association (P < 0.01) with at least one TBP in the multivariate analysis. Self-reported Lyme borreliosis was significantly associated (P < 0.001) with B. burgdorferi (s.l.) infection. Facial paralysis was associated (P < 0.01) with infection with B. miyamotoi, N. mikurensis and R. helvetica. Finally, a significant association (P < 0.001) was found between nocturnal sweating and A. phagocytophilum. CONCLUSIONS: We found associations between the presence of TBPs in ticks feeding on humans and self-reported symptoms. Due to the subjective nature of such reports and the fact that infection was determined in the ticks and not in the patient samples, further prospective studies utilizing diagnostic modalities should be performed before any clinical outcome can be causally linked to infection with TBPs.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA and antibody dynamics in a Dutch household study with dense sampling frame.

This study investigated the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and diagnostics in 242 household members of different ages and with different symptom severity after SARS-CoV-2 exposure early in the pandemic (March-April 2020). Households with a SARS-CoV-2 confirmed positive case and at least one child in the Netherlands were followed for 6 weeks. Naso (NP)- and oropharyngeal (OP) swabs, oral fluid and feces specimens were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA and serum for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies. The dynamics of the presence of viral RNA and the serological response was modeled to determine the sampling time-frame and sample type with the highest sensitivity to confirm or reject a SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. In children higher viral loads compared to adults were detected at symptom onset. Early in infection, higher viral loads were detected in NP and OP specimens, while RNA in especially feces were longer detectable. SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies have 90% probability of detection from 7 days (total Ig) and 18 days (IgG) since symptom onset. For highest probability of detection in SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics early in infection, RT-PCR on NP and OP specimens are more sensitive than on oral fluid and feces. For SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics late after infection, RT-PCR on feces specimens and serology are more valuable.

Bayesian Binary Mixture Models as a Flexible Alternative to Cut-Off Analysis of ELISA Results, a Case Study of Seoul Orthohantavirus.

Serological assays, such as the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), are popular tools for establishing the seroprevalence of various infectious diseases in humans and animals. In the ELISA, the optical density is measured and gives an indication of the antibody level. However, there is variability in optical density values for individuals that have been exposed to the pathogen of interest, as well as individuals that have not been exposed. In general, the distribution of values that can be expected for these two categories partly overlap. Often, a cut-off value is determined to decide which individuals should be considered seropositive or seronegative. However, the classical cut-off approach based on a putative threshold ignores heterogeneity in immune response in the population and is thus not the optimal solution for the analysis of serological data. A binary mixture model does include this heterogeneity, offers measures of uncertainty and the direct estimation of seroprevalence without the need for correction based on sensitivity and specificity. Furthermore, the probability of being seropositive can be estimated for individual samples, and both continuous and categorical covariates (risk-factors) can be included in the analysis. Using ELISA results from rats tested for the Seoul orthohantavirus, we compared the classical cut-off method with a binary mixture model set in a Bayesian framework. We show that it performs similarly or better than cut-off methods, by comparing with real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) results. We therefore recommend binary mixture models as an analysis tool over classical cut-off methods. An example code is included to facilitate the practical use of binary mixture models in everyday practice.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via Breathing, Speaking, Singing, Coughing, and Sneezing.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for indoor airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating. OBJECTIVES: We assessed of the risk of illness due to airborne SARS-CoV-2 particles from breathing, speaking, singing, coughing, and sneezing in indoor environments. METHODS: A risk assessment model, AirCoV2, for exposure to SARS-CoV-2 particles in aerosol droplets was developed. Previously published data on droplets expelled by breathing, speaking, singing, coughing, and sneezing by an infected person were used as inputs. Scenarios encompassed virus concentration, exposure time, and ventilation. Newly collected data of virus RNA copies in mucus from patients are presented. RESULTS: The expelled volume of aerosols was highest for a sneeze, followed by a cough, singing, speaking, and breathing. After 20 min of exposure, at 107 RNA copies/mL in mucus, all mean illness risks were largely estimated to be below 0.001, except for the "high" sneeze scenario. At virus concentrations above 108 RNA copies/mL, and after 2 h of exposure, in the high and "low" sneeze scenarios, the high cough scenario and the singing scenario, risks exceeded 0.01 and may become very high, whereas the low coughing scenario, the high and low speaking scenarios and the breathing scenario remained below 0.1. After 2 h of exposure, singing became the second highest risk scenario. One air exchange per hour reduced risk of illness by about a factor of 2. Six air exchanges per hour reduced risks of illness by a factor of 8-13 for the sneeze and cough scenarios and by a factor of 4-9 for the other scenarios. DISCUSSION: The large variation in the volume of expelled aerosols is discussed. The model calculations indicated that SARS-CoV-2 transmission via aerosols outside of the 1.5-m social distancing norm can occur. Virus concentrations in aerosols and/or the amount of expelled aerosol droplets need to be high for substantial transmission via this route. AirCoV2 is made available as interactive computational tool. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7886.