Standardised empirical dispersal kernels emphasise the pervasiveness of long-distance dispersal in European birds.

Dispersal is a key life-history trait for most species and is essential to ensure connectivity and gene flow between populations and facilitate population viability in variable environments. Despite the increasing importance of range shifts due to global change, dispersal has proved difficult to quantify, limiting empirical understanding of this phenotypic trait and wider synthesis. Here, we introduce a statistical framework to estimate standardised dispersal kernels from biased data. Based on this, we compare empirical dispersal kernels for European breeding birds considering age (average dispersal; natal, before first breeding; and breeding dispersal, between subsequent breeding attempts) and sex (females and males) and test whether different dispersal properties are phylogenetically conserved. We standardised and analysed data from an extensive volunteer-based bird ring-recoveries database in Europe (EURING) by accounting for biases related to different censoring thresholds in reporting between countries and to migratory movements. Then, we fitted four widely used probability density functions in a Bayesian framework to compare and provide the best statistical descriptions of the different age and sex-specific dispersal kernels for each bird species. The dispersal movements of the 234 European bird species analysed were statistically best explained by heavy-tailed kernels, meaning that while most individuals disperse over short distances, long-distance dispersal is a prevalent phenomenon in almost all bird species. The phylogenetic signal in both median and long dispersal distances estimated from the best-fitted kernel was low (Pagel's λ < 0.25), while it reached high values (Pagel's λ >0.7) when comparing dispersal distance estimates for fat-tailed dispersal kernels. As expected in birds, natal dispersal was on average 5 km greater than breeding dispersal, but sex-biased dispersal was not detected. Our robust analytical framework allows sound use of widely available mark-recapture data in standardised dispersal estimates. We found strong evidence that long-distance dispersal is common among European breeding bird species and across life stages. The dispersal estimates offer a first guide to selecting appropriate dispersal kernels in range expansion studies and provide new avenues to improve our understanding of the mechanisms and rules underlying dispersal events.

La dispersión es un rasgo clave del ciclo vital de la mayoría de las especies y es esencial para garantizar la conectividad y el flujo genético entre poblaciones y contribuir a la viabilidad de la población en contextos de ambiente variable. A pesar de que la dispersión es clave para estudiar los cambios en el área de distribución de las especies debido al cambio global, la dispersión es difícil de cuantificar, lo que limita la comprensión empírica de este rasgo fenotípico y su síntesis más amplia. Aquí introducimos un marco de trabajo estadístico para estimar de manera estandarizada los kernels de dispersión a partir de datos sesgados. Basándonos en este marco, comparamos los kernels de dispersión empíricos para las aves reproductoras europeas considerando la edad (dispersión media vital; natal, antes de la primera reproducción; y dispersión reproductora, entre los intentos de reproducción posteriores) y el sexo (hembras y machos), además de explorar si las diferentes propiedades de dispersión se conservan filogenéticamente. Estandarizamos y analizamos los datos de una extensa base de datos de anillamiento de aves en Europa (EURING), basada en voluntarios, teniendo en cuenta los sesgos relacionados con los diferentes umbrales de comunicación de las anillas entre países y con los movimientos migratorios. A continuación, ajustamos, en un marco bayesiano, cuatro funciones de probabilidad ampliamente utilizadas para comparar y proporcionar las mejores descripciones estadísticas de los diferentes kernels de dispersión por edad y sexo para cada especie de ave. Los movimientos de dispersión de las 234 especies de aves europeas analizadas se explicaron estadísticamente mejor mediante kernels de cola pesada, lo que significa que, aunque la mayoría de los individuos se dispersan en distancias cortas, la dispersión a larga distancia es un fenómeno prevalente en casi todas las especies de aves. La señal filogenética tanto en las distancias de dispersión medias como en las largas estimadas a partir del kernel mejor ajustado fue baja (λ de Pagel < 0,25), mientras que alcanzó valores altos (λ de Pagel >0,7) al comparar las estimas de distancia de dispersión para los kernels de cola pesada. Como se esperaba en las aves, la dispersión natal fue en promedio 5 km mayor que la dispersión reproductiva, pero no se detectó una dispersión sesgada por sexo. Nuestro robusto marco analítico permite un buen uso de los datos de marcaje y recaptura disponibles para la estimación estandarizada de las distancias de dispersión. Hemos encontrado pruebas sólidas de que la dispersión a larga distancia es común entre las especies de aves reproductoras europeas y en todas las etapas de la vida. Las estimas de dispersión ofrecen un primer paso para seleccionar los kernels de dispersión adecuados para los estudios de expansión del rango de distribución y proporcionar nuevas vías de investigación para mejorar nuestra comprensión de los mecanismos y procesos que subyacen a los eventos de dispersión.

Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios.

Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by tourism.

Conflicting selection from fire and seed predation drives fine-scaled phenotypic variation in a widespread North American conifer.

Recent work has demonstrated that evolutionary processes shape ecological dynamics on relatively short timescales (eco-evolutionary dynamics), but demonstrating these effects at large spatial scales in natural landscapes has proven difficult. We used empirical studies and modeling to investigate how selective pressures from fire and predispersal seed predation affect the evolution of serotiny, an ecologically important trait. Serotiny is a highly heritable key reproductive trait in Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta subsp. latifolia), a conifer that dominates millions of hectares in western North America. In these forests, the frequency of serotiny determines postfire seedling density with corresponding community- and ecosystem-level effects. We found that serotinous individuals have a selective advantage at high fire frequencies and low predation pressure; however, very high seed predation shifted the selective advantage to nonserotinous individuals even at high fire frequencies. Simulation modeling suggests that spatial variation in the frequency of serotiny results from heterogeneity in these two selective agents. These results, combined with previous findings showing a negative association between the density of seed predators and the frequency of serotiny at both landscape and continental scales, demonstrate that contemporary patterns in serotiny reflect an evolutionary response to conflicting selection pressures from fire and seed predation. Thus, we show that variation in the frequency of a heritable polygenic trait depends on spatial variation in two dominant selective agents, and, importantly, the effects of the local trait variation propagate with profound consequences to the structure and function of communities and ecosystems across a large landscape.

Cross-scale integration of knowledge for predicting species ranges: a metamodeling framework.

AIM: Current interest in forecasting changes to species ranges have resulted in a multitude of approaches to species distribution models (SDMs). However, most approaches include only a small subset of the available information, and many ignore smaller-scale processes such as growth, fecundity, and dispersal. Furthermore, different approaches often produce divergent predictions with no simple method to reconcile them. Here, we present a flexible framework for integrating models at multiple scales using hierarchical Bayesian methods. LOCATION: Eastern North America (as an example). METHODS: Our framework builds a metamodel that is constrained by the results of multiple sub-models and provides probabilistic estimates of species presence. We applied our approach to a simulated dataset to demonstrate the integration of a correlative SDM with a theoretical model. In a second example, we built an integrated model combining the results of a physiological model with presence-absence data for sugar maple (Acer saccharum), an abundant tree native to eastern North America. RESULTS: For both examples, the integrated models successfully included information from all data sources and substantially improved the characterization of uncertainty. For the second example, the integrated model outperformed the source models with respect to uncertainty when modelling the present range of the species. When projecting into the future, the model provided a consensus view of two models that differed substantially in their predictions. Uncertainty was reduced where the models agreed and was greater where they diverged, providing a more realistic view of the state of knowledge than either source model. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We conclude by discussing the potential applications of our method and its accessibility to applied ecologists. In ideal cases, our framework can be easily implemented using off-the-shelf software. The framework has wide potential for use in species distribution modelling and can drive better integration of multi-source and multi-scale data into ecological decision-making.

Wildfire-Derived Pyrogenic Carbon Modulates Riverine Organic Matter and Biofilm Enzyme Activities in an In Situ Flume Experiment.

Wildfires produce large amounts of pyrogenic carbon (PyC), including charcoal, known for its chemical recalcitrance and sorption affinity for organic molecules. Wildfire-derived PyC can be transported to fluvial networks. Here it may alter the dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration and composition as well as microbial biofilm functioning. Effects of PyC on carbon cycling in freshwater ecosystems remain poorly investigated. Employing in-stream flumes with a control versus treatment design (PyC pulse addition), we present evidence that field-aged PyC inputs to rivers can increase the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and alter the DOM composition. DOM fluorescence components were not affected by PyC. The in-stream DOM composition was altered due to leaching of pyrogenic DOM from PyC and possibly concurrent sorption of riverine DOM to PyC. Decreased DOM aromaticity indicated by a lower SUVA245 (-0.31 unit) and a higher pH (0.25 unit) was associated with changes in enzymatic activities in benthic biofilms, including a lower recalcitrance index (ß-glucosidase/phenol oxidase), suggesting preferential usage of recalcitrant over readily available DOM by biofilms. The deposition of particulate PyC onto biofilms may further modulate the impacts of PyC due to direct contact with the biofilm matrix. This study highlights the importance of PyC for in-stream biogeochemical organic matter cycling in fire-affected watersheds.

Protecting Biodiversity (in All Its Complexity): New Models and Methods.

We are facing a biodiversity crisis at the same time as we are acquiring an unprecedented view of the world's biodiversity. Vast new datasets (e.g., species distributions, traits, phylogenies, and interaction networks) hold knowledge to better comprehend the depths of biodiversity change, reliably anticipate these changes, and inform conservation actions. To harness this information for conservation, we need to integrate the largely independent fields of biodiversity modeling and conservation. We highlight new developments in each respective field, early examples of how they are being brought together, and ideas for a future synthesis such that conservation decisions can be made with fuller awareness of the biodiversity at stake.

The changing role of ornamental horticulture in alien plant invasions.

The number of alien plants escaping from cultivation into native ecosystems is increasing steadily. We provide an overview of the historical, contemporary and potential future roles of ornamental horticulture in plant invasions. We show that currently at least 75% and 93% of the global naturalised alien flora is grown in domestic and botanical gardens, respectively. Species grown in gardens also have a larger naturalised range than those that are not. After the Middle Ages, particularly in the 18th and 19th centuries, a global trade network in plants emerged. Since then, cultivated alien species also started to appear in the wild more frequently than non-cultivated aliens globally, particularly during the 19th century. Horticulture still plays a prominent role in current plant introduction, and the monetary value of live-plant imports in different parts of the world is steadily increasing. Historically, botanical gardens - an important component of horticulture - played a major role in displaying, cultivating and distributing new plant discoveries. While the role of botanical gardens in the horticultural supply chain has declined, they are still a significant link, with one-third of institutions involved in retail-plant sales and horticultural research. However, botanical gardens have also become more dependent on commercial nurseries as plant sources, particularly in North America. Plants selected for ornamental purposes are not a random selection of the global flora, and some of the plant characteristics promoted through horticulture, such as fast growth, also promote invasion. Efforts to breed non-invasive plant cultivars are still rare. Socio-economical, technological, and environmental changes will lead to novel patterns of plant introductions and invasion opportunities for the species that are already cultivated. We describe the role that horticulture could play in mediating these changes. We identify current research challenges, and call for more research efforts on the past and current role of horticulture in plant invasions. This is required to develop science-based regulatory frameworks to prevent further plant invasions.

From the ground up: biotic and abiotic features that set the course from genes to ecosystems.

Spatial variation in cone serotiny in Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta ssp. latifolia) across Yellowstone National Park influences initial pine recruitment after stand-replacing fire with tremendous population, community, and ecosystem consequences. A previous study showed that much of the spatial variation in serotiny results from the balance of selection arising from high frequencies of fire favoring serotiny countered by opposing selection exerted by American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) as seed predators. This earlier study, however, assumed stable local red squirrel densities over multiple generations of pines. Here, we examine environmental properties that might contribute to long-term stability in the densities of red squirrels among sites. We found that the amount of clay in the soil, an indicator of plant and fungal growth-the latter an important food resource for red squirrels-and the coefficient of variation (CV) in diameter at breast height (DBH) of forest trees together account for a substantial amount of variation in red squirrel density. Soil development occurs over very long time scales, and thus, intersite variation in the amount of clay is unlikely to shift across pine generations. However, CV of DBH and squirrel density increase with stand age, which acts to amplify selection against serotiny with increasing interfire interval. Regardless, much of the variation in the CV of DBH is accounted for by soil bulk density, mean annual temperature, and surface curvature, which are unlikely to vary in their relative differences among sites over time. Consequently, these soil and abiotic attributes could contribute to consistent spatial patterns of red squirrel densities from one pine generation to the next, resulting in consistent local and spatial variation in selection exerted by red squirrels against serotiny.