Stochastic Dynamics of Fusion Low-to-High Confinement Mode (L-H) Transition: Correlation and Causal Analyses Using Information Geometry.

We investigate the stochastic dynamics of the prey-predator model of the Low-to-High confinement mode (L-H) transition in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. By considering stochastic noise in the turbulence and zonal flows as well as constant and time-varying input power Q, we perform multiple stochastic simulations of over a million trajectories using GPU computing. Due to stochastic noise, some trajectories undergo the L-H transition while others do not, leading to a mixture of H-mode and dithering at a given time and/or input power. One of the consequences of this is that H-mode characteristics appear at a smaller input power QQc as a second peak. The coexisting H-mode and dithering near Q=Qc leads to a prominent bimodal PDF with a gradual L-H transition rather than a sudden transition at Q=Qc and uncertainty in the input power. Also, a time-dependent input power leads to increased variability (dispersion) in stochastic trajectories and a more prominent bimodal PDF. We provide an interpretation of the results using information geometry to elucidate self-regulation between zonal flows, turbulence, and information causality rate to unravel causal relations involved in the L-H transition.

Monte Carlo Simulation of Stochastic Differential Equation to Study Information Geometry.

Information Geometry is a useful tool to study and compare the solutions of a Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) for non-equilibrium systems. As an alternative method to solving the Fokker-Planck equation, we propose a new method to calculate time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and to study Information Geometry using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of SDEs. Specifically, we develop a new MC SDE method to overcome the challenges in calculating a time-dependent PDF and information geometric diagnostics and to speed up simulations by utilizing GPU computing. Using MC SDE simulations, we reproduce Information Geometric scaling relations found from the Fokker-Planck method for the case of a stochastic process with linear and cubic damping terms. We showcase the advantage of MC SDE simulation over FPE solvers by calculating unequal time joint PDFs. For the linear process with a linear damping force, joint PDF is found to be a Gaussian. In contrast, for the cubic process with a cubic damping force, joint PDF exhibits a bimodal structure, even in a stationary state. This suggests a finite memory time induced by a nonlinear force. Furthermore, several power-law scalings in the characteristics of bimodal PDFs are identified and investigated.