Global rise in emerging alien species results from increased accessibility of new source pools.

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.

Effects of Invasive Alien Plant Species on Native Plant Diversity and Crop Yield.

Invasive alien plant species may negatively affect the biological diversity of co-occurring native species, decrease the quality of invaded habitats, and even change the functioning of entire ecosystems [...].

Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland.

Species distribution models are scarcely applicable to invasive species because of their breaking of the models' assumptions. So far, few mechanistic, semi-mechanistic or statistical solutions like dispersal constraints or propagule limitation have been applied. We evaluated a novel quasi-semi-mechanistic approach for regional scale models, using historical proximity variables (HPV) representing a state of the population in a given moment in the past. Our aim was to test the effects of addition of HPV sets of different minimal recentness, information capacity and the total number of variables on the quality of the species distribution model for Heracleum mantegazzianum on 116000 km2 in Poland. As environmental predictors, we used fragments of 103 1×1 km, world- wide, free-access rasters from WorldGrids.org. Single and ensemble models were computed using BIOMOD2 package 3.1.47 working in R environment 3.1.0. The addition of HPV improved the quality of single and ensemble models from poor to good and excellent. The quality was the highest for the variants with HPVs based on the distance from the most recent past occurrences. It was mostly affected by the algorithm type, but all HPV traits (minimal recentness, information capacity, model type or the number of the time periods) were significantly important determinants. The addition of HPVs improved the quality of current projections, raising the occurrence probability in regions where the species had occurred before. We conclude that HPV addition enables semi-realistic estimation of the rate of spread and can be applied to the short-term forecasting of invasive or declining species, which also break equal-dispersal probability assumptions.

No saturation in the accumulation of alien species worldwide.

Although research on human-mediated exchanges of species has substantially intensified during the last centuries, we know surprisingly little about temporal dynamics of alien species accumulations across regions and taxa. Using a novel database of 45,813 first records of 16,926 established alien species, we show that the annual rate of first records worldwide has increased during the last 200 years, with 37% of all first records reported most recently (1970-2014). Inter-continental and inter-taxonomic variation can be largely attributed to the diaspora of European settlers in the nineteenth century and to the acceleration in trade in the twentieth century. For all taxonomic groups, the increase in numbers of alien species does not show any sign of saturation and most taxa even show increases in the rate of first records over time. This highlights that past efforts to mitigate invasions have not been effective enough to keep up with increasing globalization.

A Survey of Genetic Variation and Genome Evolution within the Invasive Fallopia Complex.

The knotweed taxa Fallopia japonica, F. sachalinensis and their interspecific hybrid F. × bohemica are some of the most aggressive invaders in Europe and North America and they are serious threats to native biodiversity. At the same time, they constitute a unique model system for the creation of hybrids and studies of the initiation of evolutionary processes. In the presented study, we focused on (i) examining genetic diversity in selected populations of three Fallopia taxa in the invaded (Poland) and native ranges (Japan), (ii) establishing genome size and ploidy levels and (iii) identifying ribosomal DNA (rDNA)-bearing chromosomes in all of the taxa from the invaded range. We found that the genetic diversity within particular taxa was generally low regardless of their geographical origin. A higher level of clonality was observed for the Polish populations compared to the Japanese populations. Our study suggests that the co-occurrence of F. sachalinensis together with the other two taxa in the same stand may be the source of the higher genetic variation within the F. × bohemica hybrid. Some shift towards the contribution of F. japonica alleles was also observed for selected F. × bohemica individuals, which indicates the possibility of producing more advanced generations of F. × bohemica hybrids. All of the F. sachalinensis individuals were hexaploid (2n = 6x = 66; 2C = 6.01 pg), while those of F. japonica were mostly octoploid (2n = 8x = 88; 2C = 8.87 pg) and all of the F. × bohemica plants except one were hexaploid (2n = 6x = 66; 2C = 6.46 pg). Within the chromosome complement of F. japonica, F. sachalinensis and F. × bohemica, the physical mapping of the rDNA loci provided markers for 16, 13 and 10 chromosomes, respectively. In F. × bohemica, a loss of some of rDNA loci was observed, which indicates the occurrence of genome changes in the hybrid.