Immunopathogenesis of Primary Biliary Cholangitis, Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Autoimmune Hepatitis: Themes and Concepts.

Autoimmune liver diseases include primary biliary cholangitis, primary sclerosing cholangitis, and autoimmune hepatitis, a family of chronic immune-mediated disorders that target hepatocytes and cholangiocytes. Treatments remain nonspecific, variably effective, and noncurative, and the need for liver transplantation is disproportionate to their rarity. Development of effective therapies requires better knowledge of pathogenic mechanisms, including the roles of genetic risk, and how the environment and gut dysbiosis cause immune cell dysfunction and aberrant bile acid signaling. This review summarizes key etiologic and pathogenic concepts and themes relevant for clinical practice and how such learning can guide the development of new therapies for people living with autoimmune liver diseases.

Prognostic scores for ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients predict graft loss and mortality in recurrent primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrent primary biliary cholangitis (rPBC) develops in approximately 30% of patients and negatively impacts graft and overall patient survival after liver transplantation (LT). There is a lack of data regarding the response rate to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in rPBC. We evaluated a large, international, multi-center cohort to assess the performance of PBC scores in predicting the risk of graft and overall survival after LT in patients with rPBC. METHODS: A total of 332 patients with rPBC after LT were evaluated from 28 centers across Europe, North and South America. The median age at the time of rPBC was 58.0 years [IQR 53.2-62.6], and 298 patients (90%) were female. The biochemical response was measured with serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin, and Paris-2, GLOBE and UK-PBC scores at 1 year after UDCA initiation. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years [IQR 4.3-12.9] after rPBC diagnosis, 52 patients (16%) had graft loss and 103 (31%) died. After 1 year of UDCA initiation the histological stage at rPBC (hazard ratio [HR] 3.97, 95% CI 1.36-11.55, p = 0.01), use of prednisone (HR 3.18, 95% CI 1.04-9.73, p = 0.04), ALP xULN (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-2.01, p <0.001), Paris-2 criteria (HR 4.14, 95% CI 1.57-10.92, p = 0.004), GLOBE score (HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.71-4.66, p <0.001), and the UK-PBC score (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09, p <0.001) were associated with graft survival in the multivariate analysis. Similar results were observed for overall survival. CONCLUSION: Patients with rPBC and disease activity, as indicated by standard PBC risk scores, have impaired outcomes, supporting efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant PBC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: One in three people who undergo liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis develop recurrent disease in their new liver. Patients with recurrent primary biliary cholangitis and incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid, according to conventional prognostic scores, have worse clinical outcomes, with higher risk of graft loss and mortality in similar ways to the disease before liver transplantation. Our results supportsupport efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant primary biliary cholangitis.

Role of microbiome in autoimmune liver diseases.

The microbiome plays a crucial role in integrating environmental influences into host physiology, potentially linking it to autoimmune liver diseases, such as autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis. All autoimmune liver diseases are associated with reduced diversity of the gut microbiome and altered abundance of certain bacteria. However, the relationship between the microbiome and liver diseases is bidirectional and varies over the course of the disease. This makes it challenging to dissect whether such changes in the microbiome are initiating or driving factors in autoimmune liver diseases, secondary consequences of disease and/or pharmacological intervention, or alterations that modify the clinical course that patients experience. Potential mechanisms include the presence of pathobionts, disease-modifying microbial metabolites, and more nonspecific reduced gut barrier function, and it is highly likely that the effect of these change during the progression of the disease. Recurrent disease after liver transplantation is a major clinical challenge and a common denominator in these conditions, which could also represent a window to disease mechanisms of the gut-liver axis. Herein, we propose future research priorities, which should involve clinical trials, extensive molecular phenotyping at high resolution, and experimental studies in model systems. Overall, autoimmune liver diseases are characterized by an altered microbiome, and interventions targeting these changes hold promise for improving clinical care based on the emerging field of microbiota medicine.

Seladelpar efficacy and safety at 3 months in patients with primary biliary cholangitis: ENHANCE, a phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: ENHANCE was a phase 3 study that evaluated efficacy and safety of seladelpar, a selective peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-δ (PPAR) agonist, versus placebo in patients with primary biliary cholangitis with inadequate response or intolerance to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients were randomized 1:1:1 to oral seladelpar 5 mg (n=89), 10 mg (n=89), placebo (n=87) daily (with UDCA, as appropriate). Primary end point was a composite biochemical response [alkaline phosphatase (ALP) < 1.67×upper limit of normal (ULN), ≥15% ALP decrease from baseline, and total bilirubin ≤ ULN] at month 12. Key secondary end points were ALP normalization at month 12 and change in pruritus numerical rating scale (NRS) at month 6 in patients with baseline score ≥4. Aminotransferases were assessed. ENHANCE was terminated early following an erroneous safety signal in a concurrent, NASH trial. While blinded, primary and secondary efficacy end points were amended to month 3. Significantly more patients receiving seladelpar met the primary end point (seladelpar 5 mg: 57.1%, 10 mg: 78.2%) versus placebo (12.5%) ( p < 0.0001). ALP normalization occurred in 5.4% ( p =0.08) and 27.3% ( p < 0.0001) of patients receiving 5 and 10 mg seladelpar, respectively, versus 0% receiving placebo. Seladelpar 10 mg significantly reduced mean pruritus NRS versus placebo [10 mg: -3.14 ( p =0.02); placebo: -1.55]. Alanine aminotransferase decreased significantly with seladelpar versus placebo [5 mg: 23.4% ( p =0.0008); 10 mg: 16.7% ( p =0.03); placebo: 4%]. There were no serious treatment-related adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) with inadequate response or intolerance to UDCA who were treated with seladelpar 10 mg had significant improvements in liver biochemistry and pruritus. Seladelpar appeared safe and well tolerated.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis and overlap features of autoimmune hepatitis: A coming of age or an age-ist problem?

Autoimmune liver diseases are siloed into three syndromes that define clinical practice. These classifiers can, and are, challenged by variant presentations across all ages, something inevitable to disease definitions that rely on interpreting (inherently variable) semi-quantitative/qualitative clinical, laboratory, pathological or radiological findings. Furthermore this categorisation is premised on an ongoing absence of definable disease aetiologies. Clinicians thus encounter individuals with biochemical, serological, and histological manifestations that are common to both primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), often labelled as 'PSC/AIH-overlap'. In childhood the term 'autoimmune sclerosing cholangitis (ASC)' may be used, and some propose this to be a distinct disease process. In this article we champion the concept that ASC and PSC/AIH-overlap are not distinct entities. Rather, they represent inflammatory phases of PSC frequently manifesting earlier in the disease course, most notably in younger patients. Ultimately, disease outcomes remain similar to those of a more classical PSC phenotype observed in later life. Thus, we argue that it is now time to align disease names and descriptions used by clinicians across all patient subpopulations, to help unify care. This will enhance collaborative studies and ultimately contribute to rational treatment advances.

Nomenclature, diagnosis and management of drug-induced autoimmune-like hepatitis (DI-ALH): An expert opinion meeting report.

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) can mimic almost all other liver disorders. A phenotype increasingly ascribed to drugs is autoimmune-like hepatitis (ALH). This article summarises the major topics discussed at a joint International Conference held between the Drug-Induced Liver Injury consortium and the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group. DI-ALH is a liver injury with laboratory and/or histological features that may be indistinguishable from those of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). Previous studies have revealed that patients with DI-ALH and those with idiopathic AIH have very similar clinical, biochemical, immunological and histological features. Differentiating DI-ALH from AIH is important as patients with DI-ALH rarely require long-term immunosuppression and the condition often resolves spontaneously after withdrawal of the implicated drug, whereas patients with AIH mostly require long-term immunosuppression. Therefore, revision of the diagnosis on long-term follow-up may be necessary in some cases. More than 40 different drugs including nitrofurantoin, methyldopa, hydralazine, minocycline, infliximab, herbal and dietary supplements (such as Khat and Tinospora cordifolia) have been implicated in DI-ALH. Understanding of DI-ALH is limited by the lack of specific markers of the disease that could allow for a precise diagnosis, while there is similarly no single feature which is diagnostic of AIH. We propose a management algorithm for patients with liver injury and an autoimmune phenotype. There is an urgent need to prospectively evaluate patients with DI-ALH systematically to enable definitive characterisation of this condition.

UK-Wide Multicenter Evaluation of Second-line Therapies in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Thirty-to-forty percent of patients with primary biliary cholangitis inadequately respond to ursodeoxycholic acid. Our aim was to assemble national, real-world data on the effectiveness of obeticholic acid (OCA) as a second-line treatment, alongside non-licensed therapy with fibric acid derivatives (bezafibrate or fenofibrate). METHODS: This was a nationwide observational cohort study conducted from August 2017 until June 2021. RESULTS: We accrued data from 457 patients; 349 treated with OCA and 108 with fibric acid derivatives. At baseline/pre-treatment, individuals in the OCA group manifest higher risk features compared with those taking fibric acid derivatives, evidenced by more elevated alkaline phosphatase values, and a larger proportion of individuals with cirrhosis, abnormal bilirubin, prior non-response to ursodeoxycholic acid, and elastography readings >9.6kPa (P < .05 for all). Overall, 259 patients (OCA) and 80 patients (fibric acid derivatives) completed 12 months of second-line therapy, yielding a dropout rate of 25.7% and 25.9%, respectively. At 12 months, the magnitude of alkaline phosphatase reduction was 29.5% and 56.7% in OCA and fibric acid groups (P < .001). Conversely, 55.9% and 36.4% of patients normalized serum alanine transaminase and bilirubin in the OCA group (P < .001). The proportion with normal alanine transaminase or bilirubin values in the fibric acid group was no different at 12 months compared with baseline. Twelve-month biochemical response rates were 70.6% with OCA and 80% under fibric acid treatment (P = .121). Response rates between treatment groups were no different on propensity-score matching or on sub-analysis of high-risk groups defined at baseline. CONCLUSION: Across the population of patients with primary biliary cholangitis in the United Kingdom, rates of biochemical response and drug discontinuation appear similar under fibric acid and OCA treatment.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment-Induced GLOBE Score Changes Are Associated With Liver Transplantation-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0-1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1-2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Optimizing therapy in primary biliary cholangitis: Alkaline phosphatase at six months identifies one-year non-responders and predicts survival.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and insufficient response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), currently assessed after 1 year, are candidates for second-line therapy. The aims of this study are to assess biochemical response pattern and determine the utility of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) at six months as a predictor of insufficient response. METHODS: UDCA-treated patients in the GLOBAL PBC database with available liver biochemistries at one year were included. POISE criteria were used to assess response to treatment, defined as ALP <1.67 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal total bilirubin at one year. Various thresholds of ALP at six months were evaluated to predict insufficient response based on negative predictive value (NPV) and that with nearest to 90% NPV was selected. RESULTS: For the study, 1362 patients were included, 1232 (90.5%) female, mean age of 54 years. The POISE criteria were met by 56.4% (n = 768) of patients at one year. The median ALP (IQR) of those who met POISE criteria compared to those who did not was 1.05 × ULN (0.82-1.33) vs. 2.37 × ULN (1.72-3.69) at six months (p < .001). Of 235 patients with serum ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months, 89% did not achieve POISE criteria (NPV) after one year of UDCA. Of those with insufficient response by POISE criteria at one year, 210 (67%) had an ALP >1.9 × ULN at six months and thus would have been identified early. CONCLUSIONS: We can identify patients for second-line therapy at six months using an ALP threshold of 1.9 × ULN, given that approximately 90% of these patients are non-responders according to POISE criteria.

Genetic alterations during the neoplastic cascade towards cholangiocarcinoma in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Carcinogenesis of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC)-associated cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is largely unexplored. Improved understanding of the molecular events involved may guide development of novel avenues for rational clinical management. We aimed to assess the genetic alterations during progression of the neoplastic cascade from biliary dysplasia towards CCA in PSC. Forty-four resection specimens or biopsies of PSC patients with biliary dysplasia (n = 2) and/or CCA (n = 42) were included. DNA was extracted from sections of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue blocks with dysplasia (n = 23), CCA (n = 69), and nonneoplastic tissue (n = 28). A custom-made next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel of 28 genes was used for mutation and copy number variation (CNV) detection. In addition, CNVs of CDKN2A, EGFR, MCL1, and MYC were examined by fluorescence in situ hybridization. Alterations in 16 low-grade dysplasia samples included loss of FGFR1 (19%), CDKN2A (13%), and SMAD4 (6%), amplification of FGFR3 (6%), EGFR (6%), and ERBB2 (6%), and mutations in SMAD4 (13%). High-grade dysplasia (n = 7) is characterized by MYC amplification (43%), and mutations in ERBB2 (71%) and TP53 (86%). TP53 mutations are the most common aberrations in PSC-CCA (30%), whereas mutations in KRAS (16%), GNAS (14%), and PIK3CA (9%) are also common. In conclusion, PSC-CCA exhibits a variety of genetic alterations during progression of the neoplastic cascade, with mainly CNVs being present early, whereas mutations in ERBB2, TP53, and KRAS appear later in the development of CCA. These findings are promising for the development of NGS-guided diagnostic strategies in PSC-CCA. © 2022 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Epidemiology, Natural History, and Outcomes of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: A Systematic Review of Population-based Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of this study was to quantify the global epidemiology of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), alongside the incidence of liver transplantation, cancer, and death, through robust systematic review of population-based data. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE up to and including June 30, 2020 to identify population-based studies reporting the incidence and/or prevalence of PSC. Studies that did not report original data, or of exclusively pediatric-onset disease (diagnosis age <16 years) or exclusively PSC-associated with inflammatory bowel disease were excluded. RESULTS: Of 4922 published studies, 17 fulfilled inclusion criteria; 16 documenting incidence and 14 prevalence. The highest reported incidence of PSC was reported in Northern Europe (Finland, 1.58 and Norway, 1.3 per-100,000 population, respectively) and North America (Minnesota, 1.47); with the lowest being observed across the Mediterranean Basin (Italy, 0.1). Prevalence ranged from 31.7 in Finland and 23.99 in Minnesota, to 1.33 in Singapore and 0.0 in Alaska. Of studies reporting temporal occurrence, an increase in disease incidence was observed across North America and Northern Europe (4 studies), alongside an increase in prevalence over time (4 studies). The incidence and risks for clinical outcomes were presented by 9 of the included studies. Median transplant-free survival ranged from 9.7 (United States) to 20.6 years (Netherlands), with standardized mortality ratios of 2.5 and 4.2 compared with the control population. The standardized incidence of cholangiocarcinoma ranged from 235 (Finland) to 398 (Netherlands). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of PSC incidence and prevalence vary, with most studies conducted in North America and Western Europe; the latter showing a steady increase in disease occurrence over time. Further research is needed to understand changes in disease epidemiology, including etiological drivers, the implications of rising case burden on health care policy, and better appreciation of PSC in the developing world.

Mucosal immunity in primary sclerosing cholangitis: from the bowel to bile ducts and back again.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this article, we provide a contemporary overview on PSC pathogenesis, with a specific focus on the role of mucosal immunity. RECENT FINDINGS: The extent of enteric dysbiosis in PSC has been extensively quantified, with evidence of reduced bacterial diversity and enrichment of species capable of driving lymphocyte recruitment from the gut to the liver. Integrative pathway-based analysis and metagenomic sequencing indicate a reduction in butyrate-producing species, near absence of bacteria that activate the nuclear bile acid receptor FXR, and depletion of species that regulate the synthesis of vitamin B6 and branched-chain amino acids. Immunotyping of the cellular inflammatory infiltrate has identified a population of intrahepatic naive T cells, with tendency to acquire a Th17 polarisation state, paralleled by heightened responses to pathogen stimulation. Moreover, the search for antigen specificity has revealed the presence of overlapping nucleotide clonotypes across the gut and liver, highlighting the ability to recognize a common pool of epitopes bearing structural similarities across afflicted sites. SUMMARY: Understanding the complex mechanisms that underpin mucosal immune responses between the liver and gut will help identify new druggable targets in PSC, centring on gut microbial manipulation, bile acid therapies, and restoration of immune homeostasis.

Recent advances in clinical practice: epidemiology of autoimmune liver diseases.

Autoimmune liver diseases are chronic inflammatory hepatobiliary disorders that when classically defined encompass three distinctive clinical presentations; primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). Meaningful changes in disease epidemiology are reported, with increasing incidence and prevalence of AIH and PSC in Europe, and rising prevalence of PBC across Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region. However, there appears to be very significant global variation with contemporary incidence rates of disease per 100 000 ranging from 0.84 to 2.75 for PBC, 0.1 to 4.39 for PSC and 0.4 to 2.39 for AIH. Prevalence corresponds, and per 100 000 estimates for PBC range from 1.91 to 40.2, for PSC between 0.78 and 31.7 and for AIH from 4.8 to 42.9. Population-based studies and multicentre observational cohort series provide improved understanding of the clinical course that patients experience, highlighting variations in presenting phenotypes geographically and temporally. Collectively, while autoimmune liver diseases are rare, the clinical burden is disproportionately high relative to population incidence and prevalence. Age, sex and race also impact clinical outcomes, and patient morbidity and mortality are reflected by high need for gastroenterology, hepatology and organ transplant services.

Effects of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis on Risks of Cancer and Death in People With Inflammatory Bowel Disease, Based on Sex, Race, and Age.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are insufficient population-level data on the effects of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). METHODS: We identified incident cases of IBD, with PSC (PSC-IBD) and without, from April 2006 to April 2016 and collected data on outcomes through April 2019. We linked data from national health care registries maintained for all adults in England on hospital attendances, imaging and endoscopic evaluations, surgical procedures, cancer, and deaths. Our primary aim was to quantify the effects of developing PSC in patients with all subtypes of IBD and evaluate its effects on hepatopancreatobiliary disease, IBD-related outcomes, and all-cause mortality, according to sex, race, and age. RESULTS: Over 10 years, we identified 284,560 incident cases of IBD nationwide; of these, 2588 patients developed PSC. In all, we captured 31,587 colectomies, 5608 colorectal cancers (CRCs) 6608 cholecystectomies, and 41,055 patient deaths. Development of PSC was associated with increased risk of death and CRC (hazard ratios [HRs], 3.20 and 2.43, respectively; P < .001) and a lower median age at CRC diagnosis (59 y vs 69 y without PSC; P < .001). Compared to patients with IBD alone, patients with PSC-IBD had a 4-fold higher risk of CRC if they received a diagnosis of IBD at an age younger than 40 years; there was no difference between groups for patients diagnosed with IBD at an age older than 60 years. Development of PSC also increased risks of cholangiocarcinoma (HR, 28.46), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 21.00), pancreatic cancer (HR, 5.26), and gallbladder cancer (HR, 9.19) (P < .001 for all). Risk of hepatopancreatobiliary cancer-related death was lower among patients with PSC-IBD who received annual imaging evaluations before their cancer diagnosis, compared to those who did not undergo imaging (HR, 0.43; P = .037). The greatest difference in mortality between the PSC-IBD alone group vs the IBD alone group was for patients younger than 40 years (incidence rate ratio >7), in contrast to those who received a diagnosis of IBD when older than 60 years (incidence rate ratio, <1.5). Among patients with PSC-IBD we observed 173 first liver transplants. Liver transplantation and PSC-related events accounted for approximately 75% of clinical events when patients received a diagnosis of PSC at an age younger than 40 years vs 31% of patients who received a diagnosis when older than 60 years (P < .001). African Caribbean heritage was associated with increased risks of liver transplantation or PSC-related death compared with white race (HR, 2.05; P < .001), whereas female sex was associated with reduced risk (HR, 0.74; P = .025). CONCLUSIONS: In a 10-year, nationwide study, we confirmed that patients with PSC-IBD have increased risks of CRC, hepatopancreatobiliary cancers, and death compared to patients with IBD alone. In the PSC-IBD group, diagnosis of IBD at age younger than 40 years was associated with greater risks of CRC and all-cause mortality compared with diagnosis of IBD at older ages. Patients who receive a diagnosis of PSC at an age younger than 40 years, men, and patients of African Caribbean heritage have an increased incidence of PSC-related events.

Inter- and Intra-individual Variation, and Limited Prognostic Utility, of Serum Alkaline Phosphatase in a Trial of Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score are used as endpoints in trials of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We aimed to quantify inter- and intra-individual variation in levels of ALP and the ELF score over time, and evaluated their association with fibrosis progression. METHODS: We analyzed data from 234 patients with large-duct PSC enrolled in a 2-year, phase 2b placebo-controlled trial of simtuzumab. Participants were assessed by laboratory tests every 4 weeks, and liver biopsies collected at time of screening, week 48, and week 96. RESULTS: Serum levels of ALP and ELF scores did not differ significantly between simtuzumab and placebo groups, so the data were pooled. Median per-patient variations in ALP between clinic visits were approximately 12% over 12 weeks, 20% over 48 weeks, and 20% over 96 weeks. Reductions, unrelated to study intervention, of more than 40% in ALP were observed in 10.9% of patients with baseline activity greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN) and 12.5% of patients with more than 3-fold the ULN at 1 year. At 2 years, reductions of more than 40% in ALP were observed in 15.8% of patients with baseline activity greater than 2-fold the ULN and 17.9% of patients with more than 3-fold the ULN. Among the 209 patients with Ishak fibrosis stage 0-4 at baseline, serum ALP activity did not associate with development of cirrhosis or with a 2-point increase in fibrosis stage at 2 years. In contrast, the median per-patient variation in ELF scores between clinic visits was approximately 3% over 12 weeks, 4% over 48 weeks, and 4% over 96 weeks. Elevated ELF scores at baseline and at weeks 12, 24 and 48, each associated with development of cirrhosis at 2 years (odds ratio >2.75; P < .01 for all timepoints). ELF scores at baseline and weeks 12, 24 and 48, also associated with a 2-point increase in fibrosis stage at 2 years (odds ratios all greater than 2; P < .01 for all timepoints). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from patients with large-duct PSC enrolled in a prospective trial, we found large interindividual and intraindividual variations in serum ALP activity. Serum ALP activity did not associate with disease progression over a 2-year period. Variations in ELF score were smaller, and scores determined at multiple timepoints associated with fibrosis progression and development of cirrhosis.

Antibodies to gp210 and understanding risk in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A variety of auto-antibody assays are available as part of the clinical care of patients with liver disease. We sought to better understand the clinical utility of immune serological testing in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: We retrospectively analysed data from 2846 patients investigated for liver disease at a UK liver centre between 2001 and 2017. A total of 499 patients with PBC were identified. Immune serology results were examined for their diagnostic utility and prognostic significance to predict transplant-free survival. RESULTS: Antimitochondrial antibodies (AMAs) were specific (94.5%) and sensitive (85.6%) for PBC; antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) against glycoprotein 210 (gp210) and sp100 were specific (>98%) but not sensitive (<25%). The disease-specific ANAs were detectable in 29.6% of AMA-negative patients. Anti-gp210 auto-antibodies were significantly associated with elevated serum aminotransferase activity, bilirubin and liver stiffness at presentation (P < .010). Anti-gp210 auto-antibodies predicted non-response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) by GLOBE criteria (39.3% vs 16.7%, P = .005). Moreover, anti-gp210 was independently associated with death or liver transplantation (HR 3.22, 95% CI 1.49-6.96; P = .003), after accounting for other significant baseline determinants of outcome. Serologic finding of anti-gp210 antibodies conferred an independent risk of death or transplantation (HR 4.13, 95% CI 1.85-9.22; P = .001) after accounting for treatment response. CONCLUSION: In our single-centre cohort of patients with PBC, the presence of anti-gp210 was associated with an adverse presenting phenotype, predicted treatment non-response and independently predicted reduced transplant-free survival.

Number needed to treat with ursodeoxycholic acid therapy to prevent liver transplantation or death in primary biliary cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. METHODS: The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. RESULTS: We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. CONCLUSION: The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

Goals of Treatment for Improved Survival in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Treatment Target Should Be Bilirubin Within the Normal Range and Normalization of Alkaline Phosphatase.

INTRODUCTION: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) are widely established as independent predictors of prognosis. Current treatment goals do not aim for normalization of surrogate markers because their association with survival has not been defined. METHODS: The patient cohort from the GLOBAL PBC Study Group was used, comprising of long-term follow-up data from European and North American centers. Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated and untreated patients with bilirubin levels ≤1 × upper limit of normal (ULN) at baseline or 1 year were included. The association of normal ALP with transplant-free survival was assessed in a subgroup with ALP ≤1.67 × ULN at 1 year. Optimal thresholds of bilirubin and ALP to predict liver transplantation (LT) or death were evaluated. RESULTS: There were 2,281 patients included in the time zero cohort and 2,555 patients in the 1-year cohort. The bilirubin threshold with the highest ability to predict LT or death at 1 year was 0.6 × ULN (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.69-2.66, P < 0.001). The 10-year survival rates of patients with bilirubin ≤0.6 × ULN and >0.6 × ULN were 91.3% and 79.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). The risk for LT or death was stable below the bilirubin levels of 0.6 × ULN, yet increased beyond this threshold. Ursodeoxycholic acid-induced reduction in bilirubin below this threshold was associated with an 11% improvement in 10-year survival. Furthermore, ALP normalization was optimal, with 10-year survival rates of 93.2% in patients with ALP ≤ 1 × ULN and 86.1% in those with ALP 1.0-1.67 × ULN. DISCUSSION: Attaining bilirubin levels ≤0.6 × ULN or normal ALP are associated with the lowest risk for LT or death in patients with PBC. This has important implications for treatment targets.

Factors Associated With Outcomes of Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System.

We sought to identify factors that are predictive of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and to develop and validate a contemporaneous risk score for use in a real-world clinical setting. Analyzing data from 1,001 patients recruited to the UK-PSC research cohort, we evaluated clinical variables for their association with 2-year and 10-year outcome through Cox-proportional hazards and C-statistic analyses. We generated risk scores for short-term and long-term outcome prediction, validating their use in two independent cohorts totaling 451 patients. Thirty-six percent of the derivation cohort were transplanted or died over a cumulative follow-up of 7,904 years. Serum alkaline phosphatase of at least 2.4 × upper limit of normal at 1 year after diagnosis was predictive of 10-year outcome (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.05; C = 0.63; median transplant-free survival 63 versus 108 months; P < 0.0001), as was the presence of extrahepatic biliary disease (HR = 1.45; P = 0.01). We developed two risk scoring systems based on age, values of bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, platelets, presence of extrahepatic biliary disease, and variceal hemorrhage, which predicted 2-year and 10-year outcomes with good discrimination (C statistic = 0.81 and 0.80, respectively). Both UK-PSC risk scores were well-validated in our external cohort and outperformed the Mayo Clinic and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scores (C statistic = 0.75 and 0.63, respectively). Although heterozygosity for the previously validated human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR*03:01 risk allele predicted increased risk of adverse outcome (HR = 1.33; P = 0.001), its addition did not improve the predictive accuracy of the UK-PSC risk scores. Conclusion: Our analyses, based on a detailed clinical evaluation of a large representative cohort of participants with PSC, furthers our understanding of clinical risk markers and reports the development and validation of a real-world scoring system to identify those patients most likely to die or require liver transplantation.