The classification algorithms to support the management of the patient with femur fracture.

Effectiveness in health care is a specific characteristic of each intervention and outcome evaluated. Especially with regard to surgical interventions, organization, structure and processes play a key role in determining this parameter. In addition, health care services by definition operate in a context of limited resources, so rationalization of service organization becomes the primary goal for health care management. This aspect becomes even more relevant for those surgical services for which there are high volumes. Therefore, in order to support and optimize the management of patients undergoing surgical procedures, the data analysis could play a significant role. To this end, in this study used different classification algorithms for characterizing the process of patients undergoing surgery for a femoral neck fracture. The models showed significant accuracy with values of 81%, and parameters such as Anaemia and Gender proved to be determined risk factors for the patient's length of stay. The predictive power of the implemented model is assessed and discussed in view of its capability to support the management and optimisation of the hospitalisation process for femoral neck fracture, and is compared with different model in order to identify the most promising algorithms. In the end, the support of artificial intelligence algorithms laying the basis for building more accurate decision-support tools for healthcare practitioners.

Multiple regression model to analyze the total LOS for patients undergoing laparoscopic appendectomy.

BACKGROUND: The rapid growth in the complexity of services and stringent quality requirements present a challenge to all healthcare facilities, especially from an economic perspective. The goal is to implement different strategies that allows to enhance and obtain health processes closer to standards. The Length Of Stay (LOS) is a very useful parameter for the management of services within the hospital and is an index evaluated for the management of costs. In fact, a patient's LOS can be affected by a number of factors, including their particular condition, medical history, or medical needs. To reduce and better manage the LOS it is necessary to be able to predict this value. METHODS: In this study, a predictive model was built for the total LOS of patients undergoing laparoscopic appendectomy, one of the most common emergency procedures. Demographic and clinical data of the 357 patients admitted at "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d'Aragona" University Hospital of Salerno (Italy) had used as independent variable of the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS: The obtained model had an R2 value of 0.570 and, among the independent variables, the significant variables that most influence the total LOS were Age, Pre-operative LOS, Presence of Complication and Complicated diagnosis. CONCLUSION: This work designed an effective and automated strategy for improving the prediction of LOS, that can be useful for enhancing the preoperative pathways. In this way it is possible to characterize the demand and to be able to estimate a priori the occupation of the beds and other related hospital resources.

Investigation of emergency department abandonment rates using machine learning algorithms in a single centre study.

A critical problem that Emergency Departments (EDs) must address is overcrowding, as it causes extended waiting times and increased patient dissatisfaction, both of which are immediately linked to a greater number of patients who leave the ED early, without any evaluation by a healthcare provider (Leave Without Being Seen, LWBS). This has an impact on the hospital in terms of missing income from lost opportunities to offer treatment and, in general, of negative outcomes from the ED process. Consequently, healthcare managers must be able to forecast and control patients who leave the ED without being evaluated in advance. This study is a retrospective analysis of patients registered at the ED of the "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d'Aragona" University Hospital of Salerno (Italy) during the years 2014-2021. The goal was firstly to analyze factors that lead to patients abandoning the ED without being examined, taking into account the features related to patient characteristics such as age, gender, arrival mode, triage color, day of week of arrival, time of arrival, waiting time for take-over and year. These factors were used as process measures to perform a correlation analysis with the LWBS status. Then, Machine Learning (ML) techniques are exploited to develop and compare several LWBS prediction algorithms, with the purpose of providing a useful support model for the administration and management of EDs in the healthcare institutions. During the examined period, 688,870 patients were registered and 39188 (5.68%) left without being seen. Of the total LWBS patients, 59.6% were male and 40.4% were female. Moreover, from the statistical analysis emerged that the parameter that most influence the abandonment rate is the waiting time for take-over. The final ML classification model achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.97, indicating high performance in estimating LWBS for the years considered in this study. Various patient and ED process characteristics are related to patients who LWBS. The possibility of predicting LWBS rates in advance could be a valid tool quickly identifying and addressing "bottlenecks" in the hospital organization, thereby improving efficiency.

Classification and regression model to manage the hospitalization for laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

Gallstone disease (GD) is one of the most common morbidities in the world. Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy (LC) is currently the gold standard, performed in about 96% of cases. The most affected groups are the elderly, who generally have higher pre- and post-operative morbidity and mortality rates and longer Length of Stay (LOS). For this reason, several indicators have been defined to improve quality and efficiency and contain costs. In this study, data from patients who underwent LC at the "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d'Aragona" University Hospital of Salerno in the years 2010-2020 were processed using a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model and Classification algorithms in order to identify the variables that most influence LOS. The results of the 2352 patients analyzed showed that pre-operative LOS and Age were the independent variables that most affected LOS. In particular, MLR model had a R2 value equal to 0.537 and the best classification algorithm, Decision Tree, had an accuracy greater than 83%. In conclusion, both the MLR model and the classification algorithms produced significant results that could provide important support in the management of this healthcare process.

Predictive Analysis of Hospital Stay after Caesarean Section: A Single-Center Study.

Caesarean section (CS) rate has seen a significant increase in recent years, especially in industrialized countries. There are, in fact, several causes that justify a CS; however, evidence is emerging that non-obstetric factors may contribute to the decision. In reality, CS is not a risk-free procedure. The intra-operative, post-pregnancy risks and risks for children are just a few examples. From a cost point of view, it must be considered that CS requires longer recovery times, and women often stay hospitalized for several days. This study analyzed data from 12,360 women who underwent CS at the "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi D'Aragona" University Hospital between 2010 and 2020 by multiple regression algorithms, including multiple linear regression (MLR), Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Tree, XGBoost, and linear regression, classification algorithms and neural network in order to study the variation of the dependent variable (total LOS) as a function of a group of independent variables. We identify the MLR model as the most suitable because it achieves an R-value of 0.845, but the neural network had the best performance (R = 0.944 for the training set). Among the independent variables, Pre-operative LOS, Cardiovascular disease, Respiratory disorders, Hypertension, Diabetes, Haemorrhage, Multiple births, Obesity, Pre-eclampsia, Complicating previous delivery, Urinary and gynaecological disorders, and Complication during surgery were the variables that significantly influence the LOS. Among the classification algorithms, the best is Random Forest, with an accuracy as high as 77%. The simple regression model allowed us to highlight the comorbidities that most influence the total LOS and to show the parameters on which the hospital management must focus for better resource management and cost reduction.

Evaluation of different machine learning algorithms for predicting the length of stay in the emergency departments: a single-centre study.

Background: Recently, crowding in emergency departments (EDs) has become a recognised critical factor impacting global public healthcare, resulting from both the rising supply/demand mismatch in medical services and the paucity of hospital beds available in inpatients units and EDs. The length of stay in the ED (ED-LOS) has been found to be a significant indicator of ED bottlenecks. The time a patient spends in the ED is quantified by measuring the ED-LOS, which can be influenced by inefficient care processes and results in increased mortality and health expenditure. Therefore, it is critical to understand the major factors influencing the ED-LOS through forecasting tools enabling early improvements. Methods: The purpose of this work is to use a limited set of features impacting ED-LOS, both related to patient characteristics and to ED workflow, to predict it. Different factors were chosen (age, gender, triage level, time of admission, arrival mode) and analysed. Then, machine learning (ML) algorithms were employed to foresee ED-LOS. ML procedures were implemented taking into consideration a dataset of patients obtained from the ED database of the "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d'Aragona" University Hospital (Salerno, Italy) from the period 2014-2019. Results: For the years considered, 496,172 admissions were evaluated and 143,641 of them (28.9%) revealed a prolonged ED-LOS. Considering the complete data (48.1% female vs. 51.9% male), 51.7% patients with prolonged ED-LOS were male and 47.3% were female. Regarding the age groups, the patients that were most affected by prolonged ED-LOS were over 64 years. The evaluation metrics of Random Forest algorithm proved to be the best; indeed, it achieved the highest accuracy (74.8%), precision (72.8%), and recall (74.8%) in predicting ED-LOS. Conclusions: Different variables, referring to patients' personal and clinical attributes and to the ED process, have a direct impact on the value of ED-LOS. The suggested prediction model has encouraging results; thus, it may be applied to anticipate and manage ED-LOS, preventing crowding and optimising effectiveness and efficiency of the ED.

Is It Possible to Predict the Length of Stay of Patients Undergoing Hip-Replacement Surgery?

The proximal fracture of the femur and hip is the most common reason for hospitalization in orthopedic departments. In Italy, 115,989 hip-replacement surgeries were performed in 2019, showing the economic relevance of studying this type of procedure. This study analyzed the data relating to patients who underwent hip-replacement surgery in the years 2010-2020 at the "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d'Aragona" University Hospital of Salerno. The multiple linear regression (MLR) model and regression and classification algorithms were implemented in order to predict the total length of stay (LOS). Lastly, using a statistical analysis, the impact of COVID-19 was evaluated. The results obtained from the regression analysis showed that the best model was MLR, with an R2 value of 0.616, compared with XGBoost, Gradient-Boosted Tree, and Random Forest, with R2 values of 0.552, 0.543, and 0.448, respectively. The t-test showed that the variables that most influenced the LOS, with the exception of pre-operative LOS, were gender, age, anemia, fracture/dislocation, and urinary disorders. Among the classification algorithms, the best result was obtained with Random Forest, with a sensitivity of the longest LOS of over 89%. In terms of the overall accuracy, Random Forest and Gradient-Boosted Tree achieved a value of 71.76% and an error of 28.24%, followed by Decision Tree, with an accuracy of 71.13% and an error of 28.87%, and, finally, Support Vector Machine, with an accuracy of 65.06% and an error of 34.94%. A significant difference in cardiovascular disease, fracture/dislocation, and post-operative LOS variables was shown by the chi-squared test and Mann-Whitney test in the comparison between 2019 (before COVID-19) and 2020 (in full pandemic emergency conditions).

Implementation of Predictive Algorithms for the Study of the Endarterectomy LOS.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, the length of hospital stay (LOS) following endarterectomy has decreased significantly from 4 days to 1 day. LOS is influenced by several common complications and factors that can adversely affect the patient's health and may vary from one healthcare facility to another. The aim of this work is to develop a forecasting model of the LOS value to investigate the main factors affecting LOS in order to save healthcare cost and improve management. METHODS: We used different regression and machine learning models to predict the LOS value based on the clinical and organizational data of patients undergoing endarterectomy. Data were obtained from the discharge forms of the "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d'Aragona" University Hospital (Salerno, Italy). R2 goodness of fit and the results in terms of accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score were used to compare the performance of various algorithms. RESULTS: Before implementing the models, the preliminary correlation study showed that LOS was more dependent on the type of endarterectomy performed. Among the regression algorithms, the best was the multiple linear regression model with an R2 value of 0.854, while among the classification algorithms for LOS divided into classes, the best was decision tree, with an accuracy of 80%. The best performance was obtained in the third class, which identifies patients with prolonged LOS, with a precision of 95%. Among the independent variables, the most influential on LOS was type of endarterectomy, followed by diabetes and kidney disorders. CONCLUSION: The resulting forecast model demonstrates its effectiveness in predicting the value of LOS that could be used to improve the endarterectomy surgery planning.

A Fuzzy Inference System for the Assessment of Indoor Air Quality in an Operating Room to Prevent Surgical Site Infection.

Indoor air quality in hospital operating rooms is of great concern for the prevention of surgical site infections (SSI). A wide range of relevant medical and engineering literature has shown that the reduction in air contamination can be achieved by introducing a more efficient set of controls of HVAC systems and exploiting alarms and monitoring systems that allow having a clear report of the internal air status level. In this paper, an operating room air quality monitoring system based on a fuzzy decision support system has been proposed in order to help hospital staff responsible to guarantee a safe environment. The goal of the work is to reduce the airborne contamination in order to optimize the surgical environment, thus preventing the occurrence of SSI and reducing the related mortality rate. The advantage of FIS is that the evaluation of the air quality is based on easy-to-find input data established on the best combination of parameters and level of alert. Compared to other literature works, the proposed approach based on the FIS has been designed to take into account also the movement of clinicians in the operating room in order to monitor unauthorized paths. The test of the proposed strategy has been executed by exploiting data collected by ad-hoc sensors placed inside a real operating block during the experimental activities of the "Bacterial Infections Post Surgery" Project (BIPS). Results show that the system is capable to return risk values with extreme precision.

Regression Models to Study the Total LOS Related to Valvuloplasty.

Background: Valvular heart diseases are diseases that affect the valves by altering the normal circulation of blood within the heart. In recent years, the use of valvuloplasty has become recurrent due to the increase in calcific valve disease, which usually occurs in the elderly, and mitral valve regurgitation. For this reason, it is critical to be able to best manage the patient undergoing this surgery. To accomplish this, the length of stay (LOS) is used as a quality indicator. Methods: A multiple linear regression model and four other regression algorithms were used to study the total LOS function of a set of independent variables related to the clinical and demographic characteristics of patients. The study was conducted at the University Hospital "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d'Aragona" of Salerno (Italy) in the years 2010-2020. Results: Overall, the MLR model proved to be the best, with an R2 value of 0.720. Among the independent variables, age, pre-operative LOS, congestive heart failure, and peripheral vascular disease were those that mainly influenced the output value. Conclusions: LOS proves, once again, to be a strategic indicator for hospital resource management, and simple linear regression models have shown excellent results to analyze it.