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1.
J Med Virol ; 95(6): e28869, 2023 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37322616

RESUMO

Several randomized controlled trials and real-world cohort studies have demonstrated the efficacies of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (NMV-r) and molnupiravir (MOV) in at-risk patients with COVID-19; however, the effectiveness of antisevere acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 treatments on older patients (≥65 years) remains unclear. This retrospective cohort study aimed to assess the clinical effectiveness of the oral antiviral agents, MOV and NMV-r, in older patients (≥65 years) infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2. Nonhospitalized older patients with COVID-19 between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, were recruited from the TriNetX Research Network. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to match patients who received either NMV-r or MOV treatment with those who did not receive any oral antiviral agents. Hazard ratios (HRs) for composite all-cause hospitalization or death during the 30-day follow-up period were calculated. PSM revealed two cohorts with 28 824 patients each having balanced baseline characteristics. The antiviral group was associated with significantly lower risk of the primary composite outcome of all-cause hospitalization or death than the control group (241 vs. 801; HR, 0.307; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.27-0.36) during the follow-up period. For the secondary outcome, the antiviral group had a significantly lower risk of all-cause hospitalization (288 vs. 725; HR, 0.322; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37) and mortality (16 vs. 94; HR, 0.176; 95% CI, 0.10-0.30) than the control group. Moreover, the reduced risk of all-cause hospitalization or death remained consistent in patients receiving NMV-r (HR, 0.279; 95% CI, 0.24-0.33) and MOV (HR, 0.279; 95% CI, 0.21-0.38). Our results revealed that NMV-r and MOV decreased the all-cause hospitalization and death rates among older patients with COVID-19, supporting the use of antivirals in this vulnerable population.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , Idoso , Estudos Retrospectivos , Resultado do Tratamento , SARS-CoV-2 , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Ritonavir/uso terapêutico
2.
BMC Gastroenterol ; 23(1): 36, 2023 Feb 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36755235

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Helicobacter pylori (HP) eradication therapy (HPE) is recommended for patients with unexplained immune thrombocytopenia (ITP); however, the role of HPE in preventing ITP in patients with HP infection remains unclear. Therefore, this study was designed to clarify it. METHODS: This study was conducted at a tertiary medical center and included all adult patients with HP infection between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018. We compared the risk of developing ITP between patients with and without HPE. All patients were followed up until December 31, 2020. RESULTS: After excluding patients with thrombocytopenia, 1995 adult patients with HP infection, including 1188 patients with HPE and 807 patients without HPE, were included in this study. The mean age of the patients with HPE was 57.9 years, whereas that of those without HPE was 61.6 years. The percentage of males was 56% in patients with HPE and 59% in those without HPE. Patients without HPE had a higher risk of ITP than those with HPE after adjusting for age, sex, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, and comorbidities [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.76; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-2.68]. Stratified analyses showed that the higher risk was found only in males (adjusted OR: 1.70; 95% CI 1.03-2.80). In addition to HPE, male sex and anemia were independent predictors of ITP in patients with HP infection. CONCLUSION: This study showed that adult patients with HP infection not receiving HPE had a higher risk of developing ITP. We suggest that HPE should be considered, particularly in males and those who have anemia, to prevent ITP.


Assuntos
Infecções por Helicobacter , Helicobacter pylori , Púrpura Trombocitopênica Idiopática , Trombocitopenia , Adulto , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções por Helicobacter/complicações , Infecções por Helicobacter/tratamento farmacológico , Púrpura Trombocitopênica Idiopática/complicações , Estudos Retrospectivos , Taiwan/epidemiologia
3.
Aging Clin Exp Res ; 34(8): 1939-1946, 2022 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35441929

RESUMO

AIM: Home healthcare (HHC) provides continuous care for disabled patients. However, HHC referral after the emergency department (ED) discharge remains unclear. Thus, this study aimed its clarification. METHODS: A computer-assisted HHC referral by interdisciplinary collaboration among emergency physicians, case managers, nurse practitioners, geriatricians, and HHC nurses was built in a tertiary medical center in Taiwan. Patients who had HHC referrals after ED discharge between February 1, 2020 and September 31, 2020, were recruited into the study. A non-ED HHC cohort who had HHC referrals after hospitalization from the ED was also identified. Comparison for clinical characteristics and uses of medical resources was performed between ED HHC and non-ED HHC cohorts. RESULTS: The model was successfully implemented. In total, 34 patients with ED HHC and 40 patients with non-ED HHC were recruited into the study. The female proportion was 61.8% and 67.5%, and the mean age was 81.5 and 83.7 years in ED HHC and non-ED HHC cohorts, respectively. No significant difference was found in sex, age, underlying comorbidities, and ED diagnoses between the two cohorts. The ED HHC cohort had a lower median total medical expenditure within 3 months (34,030.0 vs. 56,624.0 New Taiwan Dollars, p = 0.021) compared with the non-ED HHC cohort. Compared to the non-ED HHC cohort, the ED HHC cohort had a lower ≤ 1 month ED visit, ≤ 6 months ED visit, and ≤ 3 months hospitalization; however, differences were not significant. CONCLUSION: An innovative ED HHC model was successfully implemented. Further studies with more patients are warranted to investigate the impact.


Assuntos
Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Hospitalização , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Coortes , Computadores , Atenção à Saúde , Feminino , Humanos , Encaminhamento e Consulta , Estudos Retrospectivos
4.
Aging Clin Exp Res ; 34(12): 3137-3144, 2022 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36071315

RESUMO

AIMS: A computerized tool and interdisciplinary care were implemented to develop a novel model for older patients with delirium in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: We developed a computerized tool using a delirium triage screen and brief confusion assessment in the hospital information system, performed education for the healthcare providers, and developed a continuous care protocol. Comparisons for outcomes between pre- and post-intervention periods were performed. RESULTS: Compared with the pre-intervention period, patients in the post-intervention period had shorter hospitalization stay, lower expenditure of hospitalization, more likely to return home, lower ED revisits of ≤ 3 days, re-hospitalization of ≤ 14 days, and mortality of ≤ 1 month. All mentioned differences were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: A novel model was successfully developed for delirium management in older patients in the ED. Outcome differences were not significant; however, the result is promising, which gives us an important reference in the future.


Assuntos
Delírio , Humanos , Idoso , Delírio/diagnóstico , Delírio/terapia , Taiwan , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Triagem , Hospitalização
6.
Int J Biometeorol ; 62(11): 1987-1994, 2018 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30155641

RESUMO

An efficient urban environmental design considers appropriate thermal comfort condition, shaded space, and activity intensity. Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and visible sky, i.e., the sky view factor (SVF), are usually used as indicators to determine the outdoor thermal comfort and amount of shaded space, respectively. The activity intensity in urban parks, which is dependent on culture and micrometeorological conditions, was represented inappropriately by attendance density in Taiwan. To optimize the park design and improve the park utilization rate in Taiwan, several environmental factors such as sound pressure levels and numbers of park visitors were measured, and PET values and SVF values were calculated from primary micrometeorological data such as wind speed and globe temperature. This study proposed equivalent continuous sound pressure level (Leq) as a novel indicator to represent park activity intensity and investigated the correlation between Leq and SVF at different PET values. Leq was more appropriate than was attendance density in representing the park activity intensity in Taiwan. In addition, Leq was highly negatively correlated with SVF when visitors felt that the outdoor thermal comfort condition was hot or very hot. In other words, a lower degree of shading in the park resulted in lower activity intensity. Park visitors tended to engage in activities in the shaded regions because of more favorable thermal comfort conditions (i.e., neutral PET). The established quantitative relationships among Leq, PET, and SVF can serve as a reference for park planning.


Assuntos
Planejamento Ambiental , Parques Recreativos , Temperatura , Vento , Humanos , Taiwan , Sensação Térmica
7.
BMC Geriatr ; 16: 72, 2016 Mar 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27029408

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The elderly are predisposed to chronic osteomyelitis because of the immunocompromised nature of aging and increasing number of chronic comorbidities. Chronic osteomyelitis may significantly affect the health of the elderly; however, its impact on long-term mortality remains unclear. We conceived this retrospective nationwide population-based cohort study to address this issue. METHODS: We identified 10,615 elderly patients (≥65 years) comprising 965 patients with chronic osteomyelitis and 9650 without chronic osteomyelitis matched at a ratio of 1:10 by age and gender between 1999 and 2010 from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The risk of chronic osteomyelitis between the two cohorts was compared by a following-up until 2011. RESULTS: Patients with chronic osteomyelitis had a significantly higher mortality risk than those without chronic osteomyelitis [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 2.29; 95 % confidence interval (CI): 2.01-2.59], particularly the old elderly (≥85 years; IRR: 3.27; 95 % CI: 2.22-4.82) and males (IRR: 2.7; 95 % CI: 2.31-3.16). The highest mortality risk was observed in the first month (IRR: 5.01; 95 % CI: 2.02-12.42), and it remained persistently higher even after 6 years (IRR: 1.53; 95 % CI: 1.13-2.06) of follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that chronic osteomyelitis [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 1.89; 95 % CI: 1.66-2.15], advanced age (≥85 years; AHR: 2.02; 95 % CI: 1.70-2.41), male (AHR: 1.34; 95 % CI: 1.22-1.48), and chronic comorbidities were independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that chronic osteomyelitis significantly increased the long-term mortality risk in the elderly. Therefore, strategies for prevention and treatment of chronic osteomyelitis and concomitant control of chronic comorbidities are very important for the management of the elderly, particularly for a future with an increasingly aged population worldwide.


Assuntos
Osteomielite/mortalidade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Causas de Morte , Doença Crônica , Estudos de Coortes , Comorbidade , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Programas Nacionais de Saúde , Osteomielite/complicações , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Projetos de Pesquisa , Estudos Retrospectivos , Risco , Análise de Sobrevida , Taiwan/epidemiologia
8.
Int J Biometeorol ; 58(9): 1927-39, 2014 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24478000

RESUMO

Thermal comfort is a subjective psychological perception of people based also on physiological thermoregulation mechanisms when the human body is exposed to a combination of various environmental factors including air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and radiation conditions. Due to the importance of gender in the issue of outdoor thermal comfort, this study compared and examined the thermal comfort-related differences between male and female subjects using previous data from Taiwanese questionnaire survey. Compared with males, the results indicated that females in Taiwan are less tolerant to hot conditions and intensely protect themselves from sun exposure. Our analytical results are inconsistent with the findings of previous physiological studies concerning thermal comfort indicating that females have superior thermal physiological tolerance than males. On the contrary, our findings can be interpreted on psychological level. Environmental behavioral learning theory was adopted in this study to elucidate this observed contradiction between the autonomic thermal physiological and psychological-behavioral aspects. Women might desire for a light skin tone through social learning processes, such as observation and education, which is subsequently reflected in their psychological perceptions (fears of heat and sun exposure) and behavioral adjustments (carrying umbrellas or searching for shade). Hence, these unique psychological and behavioral phenomena cannot be directly explained by autonomic physiological thermoregulation mechanisms. The findings of this study serve as a reference for designing spaces that accommodates gender-specific thermal comfort characteristics. Recommendations include providing additional suitable sheltered areas in open areas, such as city squares and parks, to satisfy the thermal comfort needs of females.


Assuntos
Clima , Emoções , Meio Ambiente , Temperatura Alta , Umidade , Sensação Térmica , Vento , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Distribuição por Sexo , Inquéritos e Questionários , Taiwan/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
10.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 102(8): e32955, 2023 Feb 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36827058

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Delirium is one of the most common geriatric syndromes in older patients, accounting for 25% of hospitalized older patients, 31 to 35% of patients in the intensive care unit, and 8% to 17% of older patients in the emergency department (ED). A number of articles have been published in the literature regarding delirium. However, it is unclear about article citations evolving in the field. This study proposed a temporal heatmap (THM) that can be applied to all bibliographical studies for a better understanding of cited articles worth reading. METHODS: As of November 25, 2022, 11,668 abstracts published on delirium since 2013 were retrieved from the Web of Science core collection. Research achievements were measured using the CJAL score. Social network analysis was applied to examine clusters of keywords associated with core concepts of research. A THM was proposed to detect articles worth reading based on recent citations that are increasing. The 100 top-cited articles related to delirium were displayed on an impact beam plot (IBP). RESULTS: The results indicate that the US (12474), Vanderbilt University (US) (634), Anesthesiology (2168), and Alessandro Morandi (Italy) (116) had the highest CJAL scores in countries, institutes, departments, and authors, respectively. Articles worthy of reading were highlighted on a THM and an IBP when an increasing trend of citations over the last 4 years was observed. CONCLUSION: The THM and IBP were proposed to highlight articles worth reading, and we recommend that more future bibliographical studies utilize the 2 visualizations and not restrict them solely to delirium-related articles in the future.


Assuntos
Delírio , Leitura , Humanos , Idoso , Bibliometria , Publicações , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva
11.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 102(25): e33873, 2023 Jun 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37352056

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: An Alluvial diagram illustrates the flow of values from one set to another. Edges (or links/connections) are the connections between nodes (or actors/ vertices). There has been an increase in the use of Alluvial deposits in medical research in recent years. However, there was no illustration of such research on the way to draw the Alluvial for the readers. Our objective was to demonstrate how to draw the Alluvial in Microsoft Excel by using 2 examples, including variable characteristics for COVID-19 patients and research achievements (RAs) on the topic of COVID-19, epidemiology, pathogenesis, and vaccine (CEPV), and provide an easy and friendly method of drawing the Alluvial in MS Excel. METHODS: Blood samples were collected and analyzed from 485 infected individuals in Wuhan, China. An operational decision tree and 2 Alluvial diagrams were shown to be capable of identifying variable characteristics in COVID-19 patients. A second example is the 100 top-cited articles downloaded from the Web of Science core collection (WoSCC) on the CEPV topic. On the Alluvial diagram, the mean citations (=citations/publications) and x-index were used to identify the top 5 members with the highest RAs in each entity (country, institute, journal, and research area). Two examples (i.e., blood samples taken from 485 infected individuals in Wuhan, China, and 100 top-cited articles on the CEPV topic) were illustrated and compared with traditional visualizations without flow relationships between nodes. RESULTS: The top members in entities with the x-index are U Arab Emirates (242), Jama-J. Am. Med. Assoc. (27.18), Lancet (58.34), San Francisco Va Med (178), and Chaolin Huang (189) in countries, institutes, departments, and authors, respectively. The most cited article with 1315 citations was written by Huang and his colleagues and published by Lancet in 2021. CONCLUSION: This study generates several Alluvial diagrams as demonstrations. The tutorial material and MP4 video provided in the Excel module allow readers to draw the Alluvial on their own in an easy and friendly manner.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vacinas , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Bibliometria , Academias e Institutos , Árabes
12.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 102(4): e32670, 2023 Jan 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36705387

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dementia is a progressive disease that worsens over time as cognitive abilities deteriorate. Effective preventive interventions require early detection. However, there are no reports in the literature concerning apps that have been developed and designed to predict patient dementia classes (DCs). This study aimed to develop an app that could predict DC automatically and accurately for patients responding to the clinical dementia rating (CDR) instrument. METHODS: A CDR was applied to 366 outpatients in a hospital in Taiwan, with assessments on 25 and 49 items endorsed by patients and family members, respectively. The 2 models of convolutional neural networks (CNN) and artificial neural networks (ANN) were applied to examine the prediction accuracy based on 5 classes (i.e., no cognitive decline, very mild, mild, moderate, and severe) in 4 scenarios, consisting of 74 (items) in total, 25 in patients, 49 in family, and a combination strategy to select the best in the aforementioned scenarios using the forest plot. Using CDR scores in patients and their families on both axes, patients were dispersed on a radar plot. An app was developed to predict patient DC. RESULTS: We found that ANN had higher accuracy rates than CNN with a ratio of 3:1 in the 4 scenarios. The highest accuracy rate (=93.72%) was shown in the combination scenario of ANN. A significant difference was observed between the CNN and ANN in terms of the accuracy rate. An available ANN-based app for predicting DC in patients was successfully developed and demonstrated in this study. CONCLUSION: On the basis of a combination strategy and a decision rule, a 74-item ANN model with 285 estimated parameters was developed and included. The development of an app that will assist clinicians in predicting DC in clinical settings is required in the near future.


Assuntos
Demência , Aplicativos Móveis , Humanos , Redes Neurais de Computação , Demência/diagnóstico , Taiwan
13.
PLoS One ; 18(3): e0283475, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36961810

RESUMO

The Geriatric Influenza Death (GID) score was developed to help decision making in older patients with influenza in the emergency department (ED), but external validation is unavailable. Thus, we conducted a study was to fill the data gap. We recruited all older patients (≥65 years) who visited the ED of three hospitals between 2009 and 2018. Demographic data and clinical characteristics were retrospectively collected. Discrimination, goodness of fit, and performance of the GID score were evaluated. Of the 5,508 patients (121 died) with influenza, the mean age was 76.6±7.4 (standard deviation) years, and 49.3% were males. The GID score was higher in the mortality group (1.7±1.1 vs. 0.8±0.8, p <0.01). With 0 as the reference, the odds ratio for morality with score of 1, 2 and ≥3 was 3.08 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.66-5.71), 6.69 (95% CI: 3.52-12.71), and 23.68 (95% CI: 11.95-46.93), respectively. The area under the curve was 0.722 (95% CI: 0.677-0.766), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was 1.000. The GID score had excellent negative predictive values with different cut-offs. The GID score had good external validity, and further studies are warranted for wider application.


Assuntos
Influenza Humana , Masculino , Humanos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Coleta de Dados , Curva ROC
14.
Intern Emerg Med ; 18(7): 2121-2130, 2023 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37253992

RESUMO

People with dementia (PwD) who receive home healthcare (HHC) may have distressing symptoms, complex care needs and high mortality rates. However, there are few studies investigating the determinants of mortality in HHC recipients. To identify end-of-life care needs and tailor individualized care goals, we aim to explore the mortality rate and its determinants among PwD receiving HHC. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a Taiwanese national population database. People with new dementia diagnosis in 2007-2016 who received HHC were included. We calculated the accumulative mortality rate and applied Poisson regression model to estimate the risk of mortality for each variable (adjusted risk ratios, aRR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). We included 95,831 PwD and 57,036 (59.5%) of them died during the follow-up period (30.5% died in the first-year). Among comorbidities, cirrhosis was associated with the highest mortality risks (aRR 1.65, 95% CI 1.49-1.83). Among HHC-related factors, higher visit frequency of HHC (> 2 versus ≦1 times/month, aRR 3.52, 95% CI 3.39-3.66) and higher level of resource utilization group (RUG, RUG 4 versus 1, aRR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.25-1.51) were risk factor of mortality risk. Meanwhile, HHC provided by physician and nurse was related to reduced mortality risk (aRR 0.79, 95% CI 0.77-0.81) compared to those provided by nurse only. Anticipatory care planning and timely end-of life care should be integrated in light of the high mortality rate among PwD receiving HHC. Determinants associated with increased mortality risk facilitate the identification of high risk group and tailoring the appropriate care goals. Trial registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier is NCT04250103 which has been registered on 31st January 2020.


Assuntos
Demência , Serviços de Assistência Domiciliar , Humanos , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Retrospectivos , Atenção à Saúde , Demência/epidemiologia
15.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 101(44): e31335, 2022 Nov 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36343020

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: An individual's research domain (RD) can be determined from objective publication data (e.g., medical subject headings and Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms) by performing social network analysis. Bibliographic coupling (such as cocitation) is a similarity metric that relies on citation analysis to determine the similarity in RD between 2 articles. This study compared RD consistency between articles as well as their cited references and citing articles (ARCs). METHODS: A total of 1388 abstracts were downloaded from PubMed and authored by 3 productive authors. Based on the top 3 clusters in social network analysis, similarity in RD was observed by comparing their consistency using the major MeSH terms in author articles, cited references and citing articles (ARC). Impact beam plots with La indices were drawn and compared for each of the 3 authors. RESULTS: Sung-Ho Jang (South Korea), Chia-Hung Kao (Taiwan), and Chin-Hsiao Tseng (Taiwan) published 445, 780, and 163 articles, respectively. Dr Jang's RD is physiology, and Dr Kao and Dr Tseng's RDs are epidemiology. We confirmed the consistency of the RD terms by comparing the major MeSH terms in the ARC. Their La indexes were 5, 5, and 6, where a higher value indicates more extraordinary research achievement. CONCLUSION: RD consistency was confirmed by comparing the main MeSH terms in ARC. The 3 approaches of RD determination (based on author articles, the La index, and the impact beam plots) were recommended for bibliographical studies in the future.


Assuntos
Bibliometria , Análise de Rede Social , Humanos , Medical Subject Headings , PubMed , Taiwan
16.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 101(32): e29718, 2022 Aug 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35960054

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The negative impacts of COVID-19 (ImpactCOVID) on public health are commonly assessed using the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases (CNCCs). However, whether different mathematical models yield disparate results based on varying time frames remains unclear. This study aimed to compare the differences in prediction accuracy between 2 proposed COVID-19 models, develop an angle index that can be objectively used to evaluate ImpactCOVID, compare the differences in angle indexes across countries/regions worldwide, and examine the difference in determining the inflection point (IP) on the CNCCs between the 2 models. METHODS: Data were downloaded from the GitHub website. Two mathematical models were examined in 2 time-frame scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic (the early 20-day stage and the entire year of 2020). Angle index was determined by the ratio (=CNCCs at IP÷IP days). The R2 model and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the model's prediction accuracy in the 2 time-frame scenarios. Comparisons were made using 3 visualizations: line-chart plots, choropleth maps, and forest plots. RESULTS: Exponential growth (EXPO) and item response theory (IRT) models had identical prediction power at the earlier outbreak stage. The IRT model had a higher model R2 and smaller MAPE than the EXPO model in 2020. Hubei Province in China had the highest angle index at the early stage, and India, California (US), and the United Kingdom had the highest angle indexes in 2020. The IRT model was superior to the EXPO model in determining the IP on an Ogive curve. CONCLUSION: Both proposed models can be used to measure ImpactCOVID. However, the IRT model (superior to EXPO in the long-term and Ogive-type data) is recommended for epidemiologists and policymakers to measure ImpactCOVID in the future.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2
17.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(50): e28134, 2021 Dec 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34918666

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused >0.228 billion infected cases as of September 18, 2021, implying an exponential growth for infection worldwide. Many mathematical models have been proposed to predict the future cumulative number of infected cases (CNICs). Nevertheless, none compared their prediction accuracies in models. In this work, we compared mathematical models recently published in scholarly journals and designed online dashboards that present actual information about COVID-19. METHODS: All CNICs were downloaded from GitHub. Comparison of model R2 was made in 3 models based on quadratic equation (QE), modified QE (OE-m), and item response theory (IRT) using paired-t test and analysis of variance (ANOVA). The Kano diagram was applied to display the association and the difference in model R2 on a dashboard. RESULTS: We observed that the correlation coefficient was 0.48 (t = 9.87, n = 265) between QE and IRT models based on R2 when modeling CNICs in a short run (dated from January 1 to February 16, 2021). A significant difference in R2 was found (P < .001, F = 53.32) in mean R2 of 0.98, 0.92, and 0.84 for IRT, OE-mm, and QE, respectively. The IRT-based COVID-19 model is superior to the counterparts of QE-m and QE in model R2 particularly in a longer period of infected days (i.e., in the entire year in 2020). CONCLUSION: An online dashboard was demonstrated to display the association and difference in prediction accuracy among predictive models. The IRT mathematical model was recommended to make projections about the evolution of CNICs for each county/region in future applications, not just limited to the COVID-19 epidemic.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Modelos Teóricos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Previsões , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2
18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34073398

RESUMO

To evaluate the trend of healthcare utilization among patients with dementia (PwD) in different post-diagnosis periods, Taiwan's nationwide population database was used in this study. PwD were identified on the basis of dementia diagnoses during 2002-2011. We further subdivided the cases into 10 groups from the index year to the 10th year after diagnosis. The frequency of emergency department visits and hospitalizations, the length of stay, outpatient and department visits, and the number of medications used were retrieved. The Joinpoint regression approach was used to estimate the annual percent change (APC) of healthcare utilization. The overall trend of healthcare utilization increased with the progression of dementia, with a significant APC during the first to second year after diagnosis (p < 0.01), except that the frequency of outpatient visits showed a decreasing trend with a significant APC from the first to fifth year. All sex- and age-stratified analyses revealed that male gender and old age contributed to greater use of healthcare services but did not change the overall trend. This study provides a better understanding of medical resource utilization across the full spectrum of dementia, which can allow policymakers, physicians, and caregivers to devise better care plans for PwD.


Assuntos
Demência , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde , Cuidadores , Demência/epidemiologia , Demência/terapia , Serviços de Saúde , Hospitalização , Humanos , Masculino
19.
Healthcare (Basel) ; 9(11)2021 Oct 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34828460

RESUMO

Little is known about the effects of seamless hospital discharge planning on long-term care (LTC) costs and effectiveness. This study evaluates the cost and effectiveness of the recently implemented policy from hospital to LTC between patients discharged under seamless transition and standard transition. A total of 49 elderly patients in the standard transition cohort and 119 in the seamless transition cohort were recruited from November 2016 to February 2018. Data collected from medical records included the Multimorbidity Frailty Index, Activities of Daily Living Scale, and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool during hospitalization. Multiple linear regression and Cox regression models were used to explore risk factors for medical resource utilization and medical outcomes. After adjustment for effective predictors, the seamless cohort had lower direct medical costs, a shorter length of stay, a higher survival rate, and a lower unplanned readmission rate compared to the standard cohort. However, only mean total direct medical costs during hospitalization and 6 months after discharge were significantly (p < 0.001) lower in the seamless cohort (USD 6192) compared to the standard cohort (USD 8361). Additionally, the annual per-patient economic burden in the seamless cohort approximated USD 2.9-3.3 billion. Analysis of the economic burden of disability in the elderly population in Taiwan indicates that seamless transition planning can save approximately USD 3 billion in annual healthcare costs. Implementing this policy would achieve continuous improvement in LTC quality and reduce the financial burden of healthcare on the Taiwanese government.

20.
Emerg Med Int ; 2020: 7174695, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32724676

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of geriatric syndromes and the need for hospice care in the emergency department (ED) in Asian populations remain unclear. This study was conducted to fill the data gap. METHODS: Using a newly developed emergency geriatric assessment (EGA), we investigated the prevalence of geriatric syndromes and the need for hospice care in older ED patients of a tertiary medical center between September 1, 2016, and January 31, 2017. RESULTS: We recruited a total of 693 patients with a mean age of 78.0 years (standard deviation 8.2 years), comprising 46.6% of females. According to age subgroups, 37.4% of patients were aged 65-74 years, 37.4% were aged 75-84 years, and 25.2% were aged ≥85 years. The prevalence rates of geriatric syndromes were as follows: delirium (11.4%), depression (23.4%), dementia (43.1%), deterioration of activities of daily living (ADL) for <1 year (29.4%), vision impairment (22.2%), hearing impairment (23.8%), sleep disturbance (13.1%), any fall in <1 year (21.8%), polypharmacy (28.7%), pain (35.1%), pressure ulcer (5.6%), incontinence or retention (29.6%), indwelling device or physical restrain (21.6%), nutrition problem (35.7%), frequent use of medical resources (50.1%), lack of advance care planning (84.0%), caregiver problem (4.6%), socioeconomic problem (5.5%), and need for family meeting (6.2%). The need for hospice care was 11.9%. Most geriatric syndromes increased with advancing age except depression, sleep disturbance, polypharmacy, pain, nutrition problem, lack of advance care planning, caregiver problem, and socioeconomic problem. CONCLUSION: Geriatric syndromes and the need for hospice care were common in the older ED patients. Further studies about subsequent intervention for improving geriatric care are needed.

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