A critical analysis of the effect of OM-85 for the prevention of recurrent respiratory tract infections or wheezing/asthma from systematic reviews with meta-analysis.

Acute respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are one of the most common causes of pediatric consultations/hospitalizations and a major trigger for asthma exacerbations. Some consensus statements have recommended the use of immunostimulants to boost natural defenses against severe or repeated infections. One of the most common immunostimulants is OM-85; while several randomized clinical trials (RCTs) have evaluated its efficacy in preventing acute RTIs and wheezing/asthma exacerbations, results have been conflicting. Similarly, various systematic reviews with meta-analyses (SRMs) on OM-85 have used different strategies, populations, and outcomes; moreover, SRM conclusions are limited when the original studies are highly heterogeneous or have a low quality, hindering the generalizability of the findings. Here we summarize the evidence on the effect of OM-85 to prevent acute RTIs, wheezing/asthma episodes, or loss of asthma control in children, by including and critically evaluating all SRMs published to date. We searched for SRMs on OM-85 in three publication databases and found nine SRMs (seven for RTI, and two for wheezing/asthma). Among those, one had a high confidence evaluation of quality (AMSTAR-2 tool) and found a reduction in the total number of acute RTIs among the OM-85 group. Overall, no strong recommendations can be derived from the existing literature, mainly due to the high heterogeneity among included RCTs and SRMs. Further, large, high-quality RCTs are needed to confirm the true efficacy of OM-85 for the prevention of acute RTIs, asthma development, and asthma exacerbations.

The association of infant urinary adrenal steroids with the risk of childhood asthma development.

BACKGROUND: Adrenal steroids play important roles in early-life development. However, our understanding of the effects of perinatal adrenal steroids on the development of childhood asthma is incomplete. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations between early-life adrenal steroid levels and childhood asthma. METHODS: Participants included the Infant Susceptibility to Pulmonary Infections and Asthma following Respiratory Syncytial Virus Exposure birth cohort children with untargeted urinary metabolomics data measured during early infancy (n = 264) and nasal immune mediator data measured concurrently at age 2 to 6 months (n = 76). A total of 11 adrenal steroid compounds were identified using untargeted metabolomics and 6 asthma-relevant nasal immune mediators from multiplex assays were a priori selected. Current asthma at ages 5 and 6 years was ascertained using validated questionnaires. Associations were tested using logistic and linear regression with confounders adjustment. RESULTS: Pregnenetriol disulfate (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.06-0.68) and 3a,21-dihydroxy-5b-pregnane-11,20-dione-21-glucuronide (aOR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.14-0.75) were inversely associated with childhood asthma at 5 and 6 years after multiple testing adjustment. There was a significant interaction effect of pregnanediol-3-glucuronide by biological sex assigned at birth (aOR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.02-0.51, for those with female sex) on childhood asthma. Pregnenetriol disulfate was inversely associated with granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (ß = -0.45, q-value = 0.05). 3a,21-dihydroxy-5b-pregnane-11,20-dione 21-glucuronide was inversely associated with interleukin [IL]-4 (ß = -0.29, q-value = 0.02), IL-5 (ß = -0.35, q-value = 0.006), IL-13 (ß = -0.26, q-value = 0.02), granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (ß = -0.35, q-value = 0.006), and fibroblast growth factor-ß (ß = -0.24, q-value = 0.01) after multiple testing adjustment. CONCLUSION: The inverse association between adrenal steroids downstream of progesterone and 17-hydroxypregnenolone and the odds of childhood asthma and nasopharyngeal type 2 immune biomarkers suggest that increased early-life adrenal steroids may suppress type 2 inflammation and protect against the development of childhood asthma.

Exclusive breast-feeding, the early-life microbiome and immune response, and common childhood respiratory illnesses.

BACKGROUND: The impact of breast-feeding on certain childhood respiratory illnesses remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the effect of exclusive breast-feeding on the early-life upper respiratory tract (URT) and gut microbiome, the URT immune response in infancy, and the risk of common pediatric respiratory diseases. METHODS: We analyzed data from a birth cohort of healthy infants with prospective ascertainment of breast-feeding patterns and common pediatric pulmonary and atopic outcomes. In a subset of infants, we also characterized the URT and gut microbiome using 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing and measured 9 URT cytokines using magnetic bead-based assays. RESULTS: Of the 1949 infants enrolled, 1495 (76.71%) had 4-year data. In adjusted analyses, exclusive breast-feeding (1) had an inverse dose-response on the ⍺-diversity of the early-life URT and gut microbiome, (2) was positively associated with the URT levels of IFN-α, IFN-γ, and IL-17A in infancy, and (3) had a protective dose-response on the development of a lower respiratory tract infection in infancy, 4-year current asthma, and 4-year ever allergic rhinitis (odds ratio [95% CI] for each 4 weeks of exclusive breast-feeding, 0.95 [0.91-0.99], 0.95 [0.90-0.99], and 0.95 [0.92-0.99], respectively). In exploratory analyses, we also found that the protective association of exclusive breast-feeding on 4-year current asthma was mediated through its impact on the gut microbiome (P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Our results support a protective causal role of exclusive breast-feeding in the risk of developing a lower respiratory tract infection in infancy and asthma and allergic rhinitis in childhood. They also shed light on potential mechanisms of these associations, including the effect of exclusive breast-feeding on the gut microbiome.

Upper respiratory tract bacterial-immune interactions during respiratory syncytial virus infection in infancy.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors determining short- and long-term morbidity following acute respiratory infection (ARI) due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in infancy remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to examine the associations of the upper respiratory tract (URT) microbiome during RSV ARI in infancy with the acute local immune response and short- and long-term clinical outcomes. METHODS: We characterized the URT microbiome by 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing and assessed the acute local immune response by measuring 53 immune mediators with high-throughput immunoassays in 357 RSV-infected infants. Our short- and long-term clinical outcomes included several markers of disease severity and the number of wheezing episodes in the fourth year of life, respectively. RESULTS: We found several specific URT bacterial-immune mediator associations. In addition, the Shannon ⍺-diversity index of the URT microbiome was associated with a higher respiratory severity score (ß =.50 [95% CI = 0.13-0.86]), greater odds of a lower ARI (odds ratio = 1.63 [95% CI = 1.10-2.43]), and higher number of wheezing episodes in the fourth year of life (ß = 0.89 [95% CI = 0.37-1.40]). The Jaccard ß-diversity index of the URT microbiome differed by level of care required (P = .04). Furthermore, we found an interaction between the Shannon ⍺-diversity index of the URT microbiome and the first principal component of the acute local immune response on the respiratory severity score (P = .048). CONCLUSIONS: The URT microbiome during RSV ARI in infancy is associated with the acute local immune response, disease severity, and number of wheezing episodes in the fourth year of life. Our results also suggest complex URT bacterial-immune interactions that can affect the severity of the RSV ARI.

Cardiometabolic Pregnancy Complications in Association With Autism-Related Traits as Measured by the Social Responsiveness Scale in ECHO.

Prior work has examined associations between cardiometabolic pregnancy complications and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) but not how these complications may relate to social communication traits more broadly. We addressed this question within the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes program, with 6,778 participants from 40 cohorts conducted from 1998-2021 with information on ASD-related traits via the Social Responsiveness Scale. Four metabolic pregnancy complications were examined individually, and combined, in association with Social Responsiveness Scale scores, using crude and adjusted linear regression as well as quantile regression analyses. We also examined associations stratified by ASD diagnosis, and potential mediation by preterm birth and low birth weight, and modification by child sex and enriched risk of ASD. Increases in ASD-related traits were associated with obesity (ß = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 3.27, 6.01) and gestational diabetes (ß = 5.21, 95% confidence interval: 2.41, 8.02), specifically, but not with hypertension or preeclampsia. Results among children without ASD were similar to main analyses, but weaker among ASD cases. There was not strong evidence for mediation or modification. Results suggest that common cardiometabolic pregnancy complications may influence child ASD-related traits, not only above a diagnostic threshold relevant to ASD but also across the population.

Association between asthma status and prenatal antibiotic prescription fills among women in a Medicaid population.

OBJECTIVE: Pregnant women with asthma have increased frequency of respiratory viral infections and exacerbations. Because of these risks, women with asthma may be subject to increased surveillance during pregnancy and may, therefore, be at increased risk of antibiotic receipt. The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between maternal asthma and outpatient prenatal antibiotic prescription fills to inform antibiotic stewardship. METHODS: We included women who delivered a singleton, term, non-low birthweight, and otherwise healthy infant enrolled in the Tennessee Medicaid Program. Maternal asthma and prenatal antibiotic fills were ascertained from healthcare encounters and outpatient pharmacy claims. We examined the association between maternal asthma and prenatal antibiotic fills using modified Poisson regression. RESULTS: Our study population included 168354 pregnant women, 4% of whom had asthma. Women with asthma had an increased risk of filling at least one prenatal antibiotic prescription (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-1.28) and had an increased number of fills during pregnancy (aRR 1.54, 95% CI 1.51-1.57) compared to women without asthma. Among those who filled at least one antibiotic prescription, women with asthma had earlier first prenatal antibiotic prescription fill and increased likelihood of filling at least one course of broad-spectrum antibiotics during pregnancy (versus narrow-spectrum). CONCLUSIONS: Pregnant women with asthma had more outpatient antibiotic prescription fills than pregnant women without asthma. These findings highlight that pregnant women with asthma disproportionately fill more antibiotic prescriptions during pregnancy, providing data that may inform antibiotic stewardship.

Unconjugated bilirubin is associated with protection from early-life wheeze and childhood asthma.

BACKGROUND: Wheeze and allergic sensitization are the strongest early-life predictors of childhood asthma development; the molecular origins of these early-life phenotypes are poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: We sought to identify metabolites associated with early-life wheeze, allergic sensitization, and childhood asthma. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study using Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes Program cohorts for discovery and independent replication. Wheeze and allergic sensitization were defined by number of wheeze episodes and positive specific IgE at age 1 year, respectively. Asthma was defined as physician diagnosis of asthma at age 5 or 6 years. We used untargeted metabolomics, controlling for observed and latent confounding factors, to assess associations between the plasma metabolome and early-life wheeze, allergy, and childhood asthma. RESULTS: Eighteen plasma metabolites were associated with first-year wheeze in the discovery cohort (n = 338). Z,Z unconjugated bilirubin (UCB) and its related metabolites exhibited a dose-response relationship with wheeze frequency; UCB levels were 13% (ß = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.74-1.02) and 22% (ß = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.68-0.91) lower in children with 1 to 3 and 4+ wheeze episodes compared with those who never wheezed, respectively. UCB levels were also associated with childhood asthma (ß = 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68-0.98). Similar trends were observed in 2 independent cohorts. UCB was significantly negatively correlated with eicosanoid- and oxidative stress-related metabolites. There were no significant associations between metabolites and allergic sensitization. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a novel inverse, dose-dependent association between UCB and recurrent wheeze and childhood asthma. Inflammatory lipid mediators and oxidative stress byproducts inversely correlated with UCB, suggesting that UCB modulates pathways critical to the development of early-life recurrent wheeze and childhood asthma.

Dose, Timing, and Spectrum of Prenatal Antibiotic Exposure and Risk of Childhood Asthma.

BACKGROUND: The potential for prenatal antibiotic exposure to influence asthma risk is not clear. We aimed to determine the effect of timing, dose, and spectrum of prenatal antibiotic exposure on the risk of childhood asthma. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of 84 214 mother-child dyads to examine the association of prenatal antibiotic exposure and childhood asthma using multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Sixty-four percent of pregnant women received antibiotics. Prenatal antibiotic exposure was associated dose-dependently with increased odds of childhood asthma (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for interquartile increase of 2 courses [interquartile range, 0-2], 1.26 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.20-1.33]). Among children exposed to at least 1 course in utero, the effect of timing at the first course was moderated by total maternal courses. Among pregnant women receiving a single antibiotic course, timing of exposure had no effect on childhood asthma risk. Among women receiving > 1 course, early exposure of the first course was associated with greater childhood asthma risk. Compared to narrow spectrum-only antibiotic use, broad spectrum-only antibiotic exposure was associated with increased odds of asthma (aOR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.05-1.24]). There were effect modifications (P < .001) by maternal asthma on total courses, and on timing of the first course, significant only among those without maternal asthma. CONCLUSIONS: Increased cumulative dose, early pregnancy first course, and broad-spectrum antibiotic exposure were associated with childhood asthma risk. Our study provides important evidence supporting judicious prenatal antibiotic use, particularly timing of use and choice of antibiotics, in preventing subsequent childhood asthma.

Infant Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis and Subsequent Risk of Pneumonia, Otitis Media, and Antibiotic Utilization.

Infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis in the first 6 months of life was associated with increased odds of pneumonia, otitis media, and antibiotic prescription fills in the second 6 months of life. These data suggest a potential value of future RSV vaccination programs on subsequent respiratory health.

Dose, Timing, and Type of Infant Antibiotic Use and the Risk of Childhood Asthma.

BACKGROUND: Aspects of infant antibiotic exposure and its association with asthma development have been variably explored. We aimed to evaluate comprehensively and simultaneously the impact of dose, timing, and type of infant antibiotic use on the risk of childhood asthma. METHODS: Singleton, term-birth, non-low-birth-weight, and otherwise healthy children enrolled in the Tennessee Medicaid Program were included. Infant antibiotic use and childhood asthma diagnosis were ascertained from prescription fills and healthcare encounter claims. We examined the association using multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Among 152 622 children, 79% had at least 1 antibiotic prescription fill during infancy. Infant antibiotic use was associated with increased odds of childhood asthma in a dose-dependent manner, with a 20% increase in odds (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.20 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.19-1.20]) for each additional antibiotic prescription filled. This significant dose-dependent relationship persisted after additionally controlling for timing and type of the antibiotics. Infants who had broad-spectrum-only antibiotic fills had increased odds of developing asthma compared with infants who had narrow-spectrum-only fills (aOR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.05-1.19]). There was no significant association between timing, formulation, anaerobic coverage, and class of antibiotics and childhood asthma. CONCLUSIONS: We found a consistent dose-dependent association between antibiotic prescription fills during infancy and subsequent development of childhood asthma. Our study adds important insights into specific aspects of infant antibiotic exposure. Clinical decision making regarding antibiotic stewardship and prevention of adverse effects should be critically assessed prior to use during infancy.

Sex-specific association between prenatal life stress exposure and infant pro-inflammatory cytokine levels during acute respiratory infection.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal life stress exposure is linked to dysregulated immune function and chronic inflammatory disease in offspring, but we know little about its effects on infant immune response during viral infection. METHOD: To address this issue, we examined associations between prenatal life stress exposure and infant upper-airway inflammatory markers during acute respiratory infection (ARI) using data from a prospective, population-based birth-cohort study (N = 180). Infant inflammation was measured as a continuous latent factor within a structural equation modeling framework using nasal wash concentrations of interleukin-1ß, interleukin-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α. We hypothesized that infants exposed to prenatal life stress would have greater levels of nasal inflammation during ARI and increased risk for ARI-related morbidity in early childhood. RESULTS: Our findings contradicted these hypotheses and provided evidence of sexually dimorphic effects of prenatal stress exposure on infant immune functioning during ARI. Among boys, but not girls, prenatal stress was negatively associated with nasal inflammation and indirectly associated with both lower ARI severity and reduced likelihood of subsequent ARI-related hospitalization in the 2nd and 3rd years of life. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that prenatal stress exposure may be beneficial for infant boys in the context of respiratory viral infections; however, it will be critical to determine if these benefits are offset by increased risk for chronic inflammatory diseases in later childhood. As the participants in this cohort are being followed longitudinally through age 8, we will be able to evaluate long-term health outcomes in future studies.

The current state of omics technologies in the clinical management of asthma and allergic diseases.

OBJECTIVE: To review the state of omics science specific to asthma and allergic diseases and discuss the current and potential applicability of omics in clinical disease prediction, treatment, and management. DATA SOURCES: Studies and reviews focused on the use of omics technologies in asthma and allergic disease research and clinical management were identified using PubMed. STUDY SELECTIONS: Publications were included based on relevance, with emphasis placed on the most recent findings. RESULTS: Omics-based research is increasingly being used to differentiate asthma and allergic disease subtypes, identify biomarkers and pathological mediators, predict patient responsiveness to specific therapies, and monitor disease control. Although most studies have focused on genomics and transcriptomics approaches, increasing attention is being placed on omics technologies that assess the effect of environmental exposures on disease initiation and progression. Studies using omics data to identify biological targets and pathways involved in asthma and allergic disease pathogenesis have primarily focused on a specific omics subtype, providing only a partial view of the disease process. CONCLUSION: Although omics technologies have advanced our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying asthma and allergic disease pathology, omics testing for these diseases are not standard of care at this point. Several important factors need to be addressed before these technologies can be used effectively in clinical practice. Use of clinical decision support systems and integration of these systems within electronic medical records will become increasingly important as omics technologies become more widely used in the clinical setting.

Infant Viral Respiratory Infection Nasal Immune-Response Patterns and Their Association with Subsequent Childhood Recurrent Wheeze.

RATIONALE: Recurrent wheeze and asthma are thought to result from alterations in early life immune development following respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection. However, prior studies of the nasal immune response to infection have assessed only individual cytokines, which does not capture the whole spectrum of response to infection. OBJECTIVES: To identify nasal immune phenotypes in response to RSV infection and their association with recurrent wheeze. METHODS: A birth cohort of term healthy infants born June to December were recruited and followed to capture the first infant RSV infection. Nasal wash samples were collected during acute respiratory infection, viruses were identified by RT-PCR, and immune-response analytes were assayed using a multianalyte bead-based panel. Immune-response clusters were identified using machine learning, and association with recurrent wheeze at age 1 and 2 years was assessed using logistic regression. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified two novel and distinct immune-response clusters to RSV and human rhinovirus. In RSV-infected infants, a nasal immune-response cluster characterized by lower non-IFN antiviral immune-response mediators, and higher type-2 and type-17 cytokines was significantly associated with first and second year recurrent wheeze. In comparison, we did not observe this in infants with human rhinovirus acute respiratory infection. Based on network analysis, type-2 and type-17 cytokines were central to the immune response to RSV, whereas growth factors and chemokines were central to the immune response to human rhinovirus. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct immune-response clusters during infant RSV infection and their association with risk of recurrent wheeze provide insights into the risk factors for and mechanisms of asthma development.

A review of metabolomics approaches and their application in identifying causal pathways of childhood asthma.

Because asthma is a disease that results from host-environment interactions, an approach that allows assessment of the effect of the environment on the host is needed to understand the disease. Metabolomics has appealing potential as an application to study pathways to childhood asthma development. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of metabolomics methods and their application to understanding host-environment pathways in asthma development. We reviewed recent literature on advances in metabolomics and their application to study pathways to childhood asthma development. We highlight the (1) potential of metabolomics in understanding the pathogenesis of disease and the discovery of biomarkers; (2) choice of metabolomics techniques, biospecimen handling, and data analysis; (3) application to studying the role of the environment on asthma development; (4) review of metabolomics applied to the outcome of asthma; (5) recommendations for application of metabolomics-based -omics data integration in understanding disease pathogenesis; and (6) limitations. In conclusion, metabolomics allows use of biospecimens to identify useful biomarkers and pathways involved in disease development and subsequently to inform a greater understanding of disease pathogenesis and endotypes and prediction of the clinical course of childhood asthma phenotypes.

Using urine metabolomics to understand the pathogenesis of infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection and its role in childhood wheezing.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in infants causes significant morbidity and is the strongest risk factor associated with asthma. Metabolites, which reflect the interactions between host cell and virus, provide an opportunity to identify the pathways that underlie severe infections and asthma development. OBJECTIVE: To study metabolic profile differences between infants with RSV infection, and human rhinovirus (HRV) infection, and healthy infants. To compare infant metabolic differences between children who do and do not wheeze. METHODS: In a term birth cohort, urine was collected while healthy and during acute viral respiratory infection with RSV and HRV. We used 1H-NMR to identify urinary metabolites. Multivariate and univariate statistics were used to discriminate metabolic profiles of infants with either RSV ARI, or HRV ARI, and healthy infants. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association of urine metabolites with 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-year recurrent wheezing. RESULTS: Several metabolites in nicotinate and nicotinamide metabolism pathways were down-regulated in infants with RSV infection compared to healthy controls. There were no significant differences in metabolite profiles between infants with RSV infection and infants with HRV Infection. Alanine was strongly associated with reduced risk of 1st-year wheezing (OR 0.18[0.0, 0.46]) and 2nd-year wheezing (OR 0.31[0.13, 0.73]), while 2-hydroxyisobutyric acid was associated with increased 3rd-year wheezing (OR 5.02[1.49, 16.93]) only among the RSV infected subset. CONCLUSION: The metabolites associated with infant RSV infection and recurrent-wheezing are indicative of viral takeover of the cellular machinery and resources to enhance virulence, replication, and subversion of the host immune-response, highlighting metabolic pathways important in the pathogenesis of RSV infection and wheeze development.

Association of newborn screening metabolites with risk of wheezing in childhood.

BACKGROUND: There are critical gaps in our understanding of the temporal relationships between metabolites and subsequent asthma development. This is the first study to examine metabolites from newborn screening in the etiology of early childhood wheezing. METHODS: One thousand nine hundred and fifty one infants enrolled between 2012 and 2014 from pediatric practices located in Middle Tennessee in the population-based birth cohort study, the Infant Susceptibility to Pulmonary Infections and Asthma Following RSV Exposure Study (INSPIRE), were linked with metabolite data from the Tennessee Newborn Screening Program. The association between the levels of 37 metabolites and the number of wheezing episodes in the past 12 months was assessed at 1, 2, and 3 years of life. RESULTS: Several metabolites were significantly associated with the number of wheezing episodes. Two acylcarnitines, C10:1 and C18:2, showed robust associations. Increasing levels of C10:1 were associated with increasing number of wheezing episodes at 2 years (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.41-3.17) and 3 years (OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.59-4.11), while increasing levels of C18:2 were associated with increasing number of wheezing episodes at 1 year (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.12-1.71) and 2 years (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.17-1.84). CONCLUSIONS: Identification of specific metabolites and associated pathways involved in wheezing pathogenesis offer insights into potential targets to prevent childhood asthma morbidity.

Seasonal patterns of Asthma medication fills among diverse populations of the United States.

OBJECTIVE: Nonadherence to controller and overuse of reliever asthma medications are associated with exacerbations. We aimed to determine patterns of seasonal asthma medication use and to identify time period(s) during which interventions to improve medication adherence could reduce asthma morbidity. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of asthmatics 4-50 years of age and enrolled in three diverse health insurance plans. Seasonal patterns of medications were reported by monthly prescription fill rates per 1000 individuals with asthma from 1998 to 2013, and stratified by healthcare plan, sex, and age. RESULTS: There was a distinct and consistent seasonal fill pattern for all asthma medications. The lowest fill rate was observed in the month of July. Fills increased in the autumn and remained high throughout the winter and spring. Compared with the month of May with high medication fills, July represented a relative decrease of fills ranging from 13% (rate ratio, RR: 0.87, 95% confidence interval, 95%CI: 0.72-1.04) for the combination of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) + long acting beta agonists (LABA) to 45% (RR: 0.55, 95%CI: 0.49-0.61) for oral corticosteroids. Such a seasonal pattern was observed each year across the 16-year study period, among healthcare plans, sexes, and ages. LABA containing control medication (ICS+LABA and LABA) fill rates were more prevalent in older asthmatics, while leukotriene receptor antagonists were more prevalent in the younger population. CONCLUSIONS: A seasonal pattern of asthma medication fill rates likely represents a reactive response to a loss of disease control and increased symptoms. Adherence to and consistent use of asthma medications among individuals who use medications in reaction to seasonal exacerbations might be a key component in reducing the risk of asthma exacerbations.

Predicting Risk of Type 2 Diabetes by Using Data on Easy-to-Measure Risk Factors.

INTRODUCTION: Statistical models for assessing risk of type 2 diabetes are usually additive with linear terms that use non-nationally representative data. The objective of this study was to use nationally representative data on diabetes risk factors and spline regression models to determine the ability of models with nonlinear and interaction terms to assess the risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We used 4 waves of data (2005-2006 to 2011-2012) on adults aged 20 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 5,471) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to build risk models in 2015. MARS allowed for interactions among 17 noninvasively measured risk factors for type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: A key risk factor for type 2 diabetes was increasing age, especially for those older than 69, followed by a family history of diabetes, with diminished risk among individuals younger than 45. Above age 69, other risk factors superseded age, including systolic and diastolic blood pressure. The additive MARS model with nonlinear terms had an area under curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic of 0.847, whereas the 2-way interaction MARS model had an AUC of 0.851, a slight improvement. Both models had an 87% accuracy in classifying diabetes status. CONCLUSION: Statistical models of type 2 diabetes risk should allow for nonlinear associations; incorporation of interaction terms into the MARS model improved its performance slightly. Robust statistical manipulation of risk factors commonly measured noninvasively in clinical settings might provide useful estimates of type 2 diabetes risk.