High Infection Secondary Attack Rates of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Dutch Households Revealed by Dense Sampling.

BACKGROUND: Indoor environments are considered one of the main settings for transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Households in particular represent a close-contact environment with high probability of transmission between persons of different ages and roles in society. METHODS: Households with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive case in the Netherlands (March-May 2020) were included. At least 3 home visits were performed during 4-6 weeks of follow-up, collecting naso- and oropharyngeal swabs, oral fluid, feces and blood samples from all household members for molecular and serological analyses. Symptoms were recorded from 2 weeks before the first visit through to the final visit. Infection secondary attack rates (SAR) were estimated with logistic regression. A transmission model was used to assess household transmission routes. RESULTS: A total of 55 households with 187 household contacts were included. In 17 households no transmission took place; in 11 households all persons were infected. Estimated infection SARs were high, ranging from 35% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-46%) in children to 51% (95% CI, 39%-63%) in adults. Estimated transmission rates in the household were high, with reduced susceptibility of children compared with adolescents and adults (0.67; 95% CI, .40-1.1). CONCLUSION: Estimated infection SARs were higher than reported in earlier household studies, presumably owing to our dense sampling protocol. Children were shown to be less susceptible than adults, but the estimated infection SAR in children was still high. Our results reinforce the role of households as one of the main multipliers of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population.

Targeted Screening for Chronic Q Fever, the Netherlands.

Early detection of and treatment for chronic Q fever might prevent potentially life-threatening complications. We performed a chronic Q fever screening program in general practitioner practices in the Netherlands 10 years after a large Q fever outbreak. Thirteen general practitioner practices located in outbreak areas selected 3,419 patients who had specific underlying medical conditions, of whom 1,642 (48%) participated. Immunofluorescence assay of serum showed that 289 (18%) of 1,642 participants had a previous Coxiella burnetii infection (IgG II titer >1:64), and 9 patients were suspected of having chronic Q fever (IgG I y titer >1:512). After medical evaluation, 4 of those patients received a chronic Q fever diagnosis. The cost of screening was higher than estimated earlier, but the program was still cost-effective in certain high risk groups. Years after a large Q fever outbreak, targeted screening still detected patients with chronic Q fever and is estimated to be cost-effective.

Sex differences in COVID-19 mortality in the Netherlands.

INTRODUCTION: Since the first reports of COVID-19 cases, sex-discrepancies have been reported in COVID-19 mortality. We provide a detailed description of these sex differences in relation to age and comorbidities among notified cases as well as in relation to age and sex-specific mortality in the general Dutch population. METHODS: Data on COVID-19 cases and mortality until May 31st 2020 was extracted from the national surveillance database with exclusion of healthcare workers. Association between sex and case fatality was analyzed with multivariable logistic regression. Subsequently, male-female ratio in standardized mortality ratios and population mortality rates relative to all-cause and infectious disease-specific mortality were computed stratified by age. RESULTS: Male-female odds ratio for case fatality was 1.33 [95% CI 1.26-1.41] and among hospitalized cases 1.27 [95% CI 1.16-1.40]. This remained significant after adjustment for age and comorbidities. The male-female ratio of the standardized mortality ratio was 1.70 [95%CI 1.62-1.78]. The population mortality rate for COVID-19 was 35.1 per 100.000, with a male-female rate ratio of 1.25 (95% CI 1.18-1.31) which was higher than in all-cause population mortality and infectious disease mortality. CONCLUSION: Our study confirms male sex is a predisposing factor for severe outcomes of COVID-19, independent of age and comorbidities. In addition to general male-female-differences, COVID-19 specific mechanisms likely contribute to this mortality discrepancy.

Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands.

Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12-19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017-18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.

Early childhood infections and body mass index in adolescence.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of childhood overweight and obesity is rising. It is hypothesized that infections in early childhood are associated with being overweight. This study investigated the association between the number of symptomatic infections or antibiotic prescriptions in the first 3 years of life and body mass index (BMI) in adolescence. SUBJECTS: The current study is part of the Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy population-based birth cohort study. Weight and height were measured by trained research staff at ages 12 and 16 years. The 3015 active participants at age 18 years were asked for informed consent for general practitioner (GP) data collection and 1519 gave written informed consent. Studied exposures include (1) GP-diagnosed infections, (2) antibiotic prescriptions, and (3) parent-reported infections in the first 3 years of life. Generalized estimating equation analysis was used to determine the association between each of these exposures and BMI z-score. RESULTS: Exposure data and BMI measurement in adolescence were available for 622 participants. The frequencies of GP-diagnosed infections and antibiotic prescriptions were not associated with BMI z-score in adolescence with estimates being 0.14 (95% CI -0.09-0.37) and 0.10 (95% CI -0.14-0.34) for the highest exposure categories, respectively. Having ≥6 parent-reported infections up to age 3 years was associated with a 0.23 (95% CI 0.01-0.44) higher BMI z-score compared to <2 parent-reported infections. CONCLUSIONS: For all infectious disease measures an increase in BMI z-score for the highest childhood exposure to infectious disease was observed, although only statistically significant for parent-reported infections. These results do not show an evident link with infection severity, but suggest a possible cumulative effect of repeated symptomatic infections on overweight development.

Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally. METHODS: Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012-2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination. RESULTS: Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20-64 years) and was higher in older adults (≥65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0-5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.

High Incidence of Active Tuberculosis in Asylum Seekers from Eritrea and Somalia in the First 5 Years after Arrival in the Netherlands.

Three quarters of tuberculosis (TB) patients in the Netherlands are foreign-born; 26% are from Eritrea or Somalia. We analyzed TB incidence rates in asylum seekers from Eritrea and Somalia in the first 5 years after arrival in the Netherlands (2013-2017) and performed survival analysis with Cox proportional hazards regression to analyze the effect of age and sex on the risk for TB. TB incidence remained high 5 years after arrival in asylum seekers from Eritrea (309 cases/100,000 person-years) and Somalia (81 cases/100,000 person-years). Age >18 years was associated with a higher risk for TB in asylum seekers from Eritrea (3.4 times higher) and Somalia (3.7 times higher), and male sex was associated with a 1.6 times higher risk for TB in asylum seekers from Eritrea. Screening and treating asylum seekers from high-incidence areas for latent TB infection upon arrival would further reduce TB incidence in the Netherlands.

High Coxiella burnetii Seroconversion Rate in Veterinary Students, the Netherlands, 2006-2010.

We examined Coxiella burnetii seroconversion rates by measuring C. burnetii IgG among 2 cohorts of veterinary students. During follow-up of 118 seronegative veterinary students, 23 students seroconverted. Although the clinical importance of the presence of antibodies is unknown, veterinary students should be informed about the potential risks for Q fever.

Cost-effectiveness of Screening Program for Chronic Q Fever, the Netherlands.

In the aftermath of a large Q fever (QF) epidemic in the Netherlands during 2007-2010, new chronic QF (CQF) patients continue to be detected. We developed a health-economic decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a 1-time screening program for CQF 7 years after the epidemic. The model was parameterized with spatial data on QF notifications for the Netherlands, prevalence data from targeted screening studies, and clinical data from the national QF database. The cost-effectiveness of screening varied substantially among subpopulations and geographic areas. Screening that focused on cardiovascular risk patients in areas with high QF incidence during the epidemic ranged from cost-saving to €31,373 per quality-adjusted life year gained, depending on the method to estimate the prevalence of CQF. The cost per quality-adjusted life year of mass screening of all older adults was €70,000 in the most optimistic scenario.

Use of Ambulance Dispatch Calls for Surveillance of Severe Acute Respiratory Infections.

Ambulance dispatches for respiratory syndromes reflect incidence of influenza-like illness in primary care. Associations are highest in children (15%-34% of respiratory calls attributable to influenza), out-of-office hours (9%), and highest urgency-level calls (9%-11%). Ambulance dispatches might be an additional source of data for severe influenza surveillance.

Animal sources for zoonotic transmission of psittacosis: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Human psittacosis, caused by Chlamydia (C.) psittaci, is likely underdiagnosed and underreported, since tests for C. psittaci are often not included in routine microbiological diagnostics. Source tracing traditionally focuses on psittacine pet birds, but recently other animal species have been gaining more attention as possible sources for human psittacosis. This review aims to provide an overview of all suspected animal sources of human psittacosis cases reported in the international literature. In addition, for each animal species the strength of evidence for zoonotic transmission was estimated. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted using four databases (Pubmed, Embase, Scopus and Proquest). Articles were included when there was mention of at least one human case of psittacosis and a possible animal source. Investigators independently extracted data from the included articles and estimated strength of evidence for zoonotic transmission, based on a self-developed scoring system taking into account number of human cases, epidemiological evidence and laboratory test results in human, animals, and the environment. RESULTS: Eighty articles were included, which provided information on 136 different situations of possible zoonotic transmission. The maximum score for zoonotic transmission was highest for turkeys, followed by ducks, owls, and the category 'other poultry'. Articles reporting about zoonotic transmission from unspecified birds, psittaciformes and columbiformes provided a relatively low strength of evidence. A genotypical match between human and animal samples was reported twenty-eight times, including transmission from chickens, turkeys, guinea fowl, peafowl, pigeons, ducks, geese, songbirds, parrot-like birds and owls. CONCLUSIONS: Strong evidence exists for zoonotic transmission from turkeys, chickens and ducks, in addition to the more traditionally reported parrot-like animal sources. Based on our scoring system, the evidence was generally stronger for poultry than for parrot-like birds. Psittaciformes should not be disregarded as an important source of human psittacosis, still clinicians and public health officials should include poultry and birds species other than parrots in medical history and source tracing.

Utility of emergency call centre, dispatch and ambulance data for syndromic surveillance of infectious diseases: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Syndromic surveillance can supplement conventional health surveillance by analyzing less-specific, near-real-time data for an indication of disease occurrence. Emergency medical call centre dispatch and ambulance data are examples of routinely and efficiently collected syndromic data that might assist in infectious disease surveillance. Scientific literature on the subject is scarce and an overview of results is lacking. METHODS: A scoping review including (i) review of the peer-reviewed literature, (ii) review of grey literature and (iii) interviews with key informants. RESULTS: Forty-four records were selected: 20 peer reviewed and 24 grey publications describing 44 studies and systems. Most publications focused on detecting respiratory illnesses or on outbreak detection at mass gatherings. Most used retrospective data; some described outcomes of temporary systems; only two described continuously active dispatch- and ambulance-based syndromic surveillance. Key informants interviewed valued dispatch- and ambulance-based syndromic surveillance as a potentially useful addition to infectious disease surveillance. Perceived benefits were its potential timeliness, standardization of data and clinical value of the data. CONCLUSIONS: Various dispatch- and ambulance-based syndromic surveillance systems for infectious diseases have been reported, although only roughly half are documented in peer-reviewed literature and most concerned retrospective research instead of continuously active surveillance systems. Dispatch- and ambulance-based syndromic data were mostly assessed in relation to respiratory illnesses; reported use for other infectious disease syndromes is limited. They are perceived by experts in the field of emergency surveillance to achieve time gains in detection of infectious disease outbreaks and to provide a useful addition to traditional surveillance efforts.

Rapid assessment of regional SARS-CoV-2 community transmission through a convenience sample of healthcare workers, the Netherlands, March 2020.

To rapidly assess possible community transmission in Noord-Brabant, the Netherlands, healthcare workers (HCW) with mild respiratory complaints and without epidemiological link (contact with confirmed case or visited areas with active circulation) were tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Within 2 days, 1,097 HCW in nine hospitals were tested; 45 (4.1%) were positive. Of six hospitals with positive HCW, two accounted for 38 positive HCW. The results informed local and national risk management.

SNP-IT Tool for Identifying Subspecies and Associated Lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex.

The clinical phenotype of zoonotic tuberculosis and its contribution to the global burden of disease are poorly understood and probably underestimated. This shortcoming is partly because of the inability of currently available laboratory and in silico tools to accurately identify all subspecies of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). We present SNPs to Identify TB (SNP-IT), a single-nucleotide polymorphism-based tool to identify all members of MTBC, including animal clades. By applying SNP-IT to a collection of clinical genomes from a UK reference laboratory, we detected an unexpectedly high number of M. orygis isolates. M. orygis is seen at a similar rate to M. bovis, yet M. orygis cases have not been previously described in the United Kingdom. From an international perspective, it is possible that M. orygis is an underestimated zoonosis. Accurate identification will enable study of the clinical phenotype, host range, and transmission mechanisms of all subspecies of MTBC in greater detail.

Should Acute Q-Fever Patients be Screened for Valvulopathy to Prevent Endocarditis?

Background: Echocardiographic screening of acute Q-fever patients and antibiotic prophylaxis for patients with cardiac valvulopathy is considered an important approach to prevent chronic Q-fever-related endocarditis. During a large Q-fever epidemic in the Netherlands, routine screening echocardiography was discontinued, raising controversy in the international literature. We followed a cohort of acute Q-fever patients to estimate the risk for developing chronic Q-fever, and we evaluated the impact of screening in patients who were not yet known to have a valvulopathy. Methods: The study population consisted of patients diagnosed with acute Q-fever in 2007 and 2008. We retrospectively reviewed all screening echocardiographs and checked for development of chronic Q-fever 8 years after the acute episode. Risks of developing chronic Q-fever in relation to the presence or absence of valvulopathy were analyzed with logistic regression. Results: The cohort included 509 patients, of whom 306 received echocardiographic screening. There was no significant difference (P-value = .22) in occurrence of chronic Q-fever between patients with a newly detected valvulopathy (2/84, 2.4%) and those with no valvulopathy (12/202, 5.9%). Two patients with a newly detected valvulopathy, who did not receive antibiotic prophylaxis, developed chronic Q-fever at a later stage. Conclusions: We found no difference in outcome between patients with and without a valvulopathy newly detected by echocardiographic screening. In retrospect, the 2 above-mentioned patients could have benefitted from antibiotic prophylaxis, but its omission must be weighed against the unnecessary large-scale and long-term use of antibiotics that would have resulted from universal echocardiographic screening.

Two Community Clusters of Legionnaires' Disease Directly Linked to a Biologic Wastewater Treatment Plant, the Netherlands.

A biologic wastewater treatment plant was identified as a common source for 2 consecutive Legionnaires' disease clusters in the Netherlands in 2016 and 2017. Sequence typing and transmission modeling indicated direct and long-distance transmission of Legionella, indicating this source type should also be investigated in sporadic Legionnaires' disease cases.

Years of Life Lost Due to Influenza-Attributable Mortality in Older Adults in the Netherlands: A Competing-Risks Approach.

We estimated the influenza mortality burden in adults aged 60 years or older in the Netherlands in terms of years of life lost, taking into account competing mortality risks. Weekly laboratory surveillance data for influenza and other respiratory pathogens and weekly extreme temperature served as covariates in Poisson regression models fitted to weekly mortality data, specific to age group, for the period 1999-2000 through 2012-2013. Burden for age groups 60-64 years through 85-89 years was computed as years of life lost before age 90 (YLL90), using restricted mean lifetime survival analysis and accounting for competing risks. Influenza-attributable mortality burden was greatest for persons aged 80-84 years, at 914 YLL90 per 100,000 persons (95% uncertainty interval: 867, 963), followed by persons aged 85-89 years (787 YLL90/100,000; 95% uncertainty interval: 741, 834). Ignoring competing mortality risks in the computation of influenza-attributable YLL90 would lead to substantial overestimation of burden, from 3.5% for persons aged 60-64 years to 82% for those aged 80-89 years at death. Failure to account for competing mortality risks has implications for the accuracy of disease-burden estimates, especially among persons aged 80 years or older. Because the mortality burden borne by the elderly is notably high, prevention initiatives may benefit from being redesigned to more effectively prevent infection in the oldest age groups.

Prevalence and Characterization of Heterogeneous Variable-Number Tandem-Repeat Clusters Comprising Drug-Susceptible and/or Variable Resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Isolates in the Netherlands from 2004 to 2016.

The variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) typing method is used to study tuberculosis (TB) transmission. Clustering of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates with identical VNTR patterns is assumed to reflect recent transmission. Hence, clusters are thought to be homogeneous regarding antibiotic resistance. In practice, however, heterogeneous clusters are also identified. This study investigates the prevalence and characteristics of heterogeneous VNTR clusters and assesses whether isolates in these clusters remain clustered when subjected to whole-genome sequencing (WGS). In the period from 2004 to 2016, 9,072 isolates were included. Demographic and epidemiological linkage data were obtained from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Register. VNTR clusters were defined as homogeneous when isolates shared identical resistance profiles or as heterogeneous if both susceptible and (variable) resistant isolates were found. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with heterogeneous clustering. Isolates from 2016 were subjected to WGS, and a genetic distance of 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was used as the cutoff for WGS clustering. In total, 4,661/9,072 (51%) isolates were clustered into 985 different VNTR clusters, of which 217 (22%) were heterogeneous. Patient characteristics associated with heterogeneous clustering were non-Dutch ethnicity (odds ratio [OR], 1.46 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.22 to 1.75]), asylum seeker (OR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.24 to 1.85]), extrapulmonary TB (OR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.09 to 1.46]), previous TB diagnosis (OR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.82]), and not being a contact of a TB patient (OR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.08 to 1.69]). With WGS, 34% of heterogeneous and 78% of homogeneous isolates from 2016 remained clustered. Heterogeneous VNTR clusters are common but seem to be explained by a substantial degree of false clustering by VNTR typing compared to WGS.

Occurrence and Nature of Double Alleles in Variable-Number Tandem-Repeat Patterns of More than 8,000 Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Isolates in The Netherlands.

Since 2004, variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) typing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates has been applied on a structural basis in The Netherlands to study the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB). Although this technique is faster and technically less demanding than the previously used restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) typing, reproducibility remains a concern. In the period from 2004 to 2015, 8,532 isolates were subjected to VNTR typing in The Netherlands, with 186 (2.2%) of these exhibiting double alleles at one locus. Double alleles were most common in loci 4052 and 2163b. The variables significantly associated with double alleles were urban living (odds ratio [OR], 1.503; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.084 to 2.084; P = 0.014) and pulmonary TB (OR, 1.703; 95% CI, 1.216 to 2.386; P = 0.002). Single-colony cultures of double-allele strains were produced and revealed single-allele profiles; a maximum of five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was observed between the single- and double-allele isolates from the same patient when whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was applied. This indicates the presence of two bacterial populations with slightly different VNTR profiles in the parental population, related to genetic drift. This observation is confirmed by the fact that secondary cases from TB source cases with double-allele isolates sometimes display only one of the two alleles present in the source case. Double alleles occur at a frequency of 2.2% in VNTR patterns in The Netherlands. They are caused by biological variation rather than by technical aberrations and can be transmitted either as single- or double-allele variants.

A Predominant Variable-Number Tandem-Repeat Cluster of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Isolates among Asylum Seekers in the Netherlands and Denmark, Deciphered by Whole-Genome Sequencing.

In many countries, Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates are routinely subjected to variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) typing to investigate M. tuberculosis transmission. Unexpectedly, cross-border clusters were identified among African refugees in the Netherlands and Denmark, although transmission in those countries was unlikely. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was applied to analyze transmission in depth and to assess the precision of VNTR typing. WGS was applied to 40 M. tuberculosis isolates from refugees in the Netherlands and Denmark (most of whom were from the Horn of Africa) that shared the exact same VNTR profile. Cluster investigations were undertaken to identify in-country epidemiological links. Combining WGS results for the isolates (all members of the central Asian strain [CAS]/Delhi genotype), from both European countries, an average genetic distance of 80 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (maximum, 153 SNPs) was observed. The few pairs of isolates with confirmed epidemiological links, except for one pair, had a maximum distance of 12 SNPs. WGS divided this refugee cluster into several subclusters of patients from the same country of origin. Although the M. tuberculosis cases, mainly originating from African countries, shared the exact same VNTR profile, most were clearly distinguished by WGS. The average genetic distance in this specific VNTR cluster was 2 times greater than that in other VNTR clusters. Thus, identical VNTR profiles did not represent recent direct M. tuberculosis transmission for this group of patients. It appears that either these strains from Africa are extremely conserved genetically or there is ongoing transmission of this genotype among refugees on their long migration routes from Africa to Europe.