RESUMO
Opioid substitution and syringes exchange programs have drastically reduced hepatitis C virus (HCV) spread in France but HCV sexual transmission in men having sex with men (MSM) has recently arisen as a significant public health concern. The fact that the virus is transmitting in a heterogeneous population, with different transmission routes, makes prevalence and incidence rates poorly informative. However, additional insights can be gained by analyzing virus phylogenies inferred from dated genetic sequence data. By combining a phylodynamics approach based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and an original transmission model, we estimate key epidemiological parameters of an ongoing HCV epidemic among MSMs in Lyon (France). We show that this new epidemic is largely independent of the previously observed non-MSM HCV epidemics and that its doubling time is ten times lower (0.44 years versus 4.37 years). These results have practical implications for HCV control and illustrate the additional information provided by virus genomics in public health.
Assuntos
Hepacivirus/genética , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Hepatite C/transmissão , Epidemias , Feminino , França/epidemiologia , Homossexualidade Masculina , Humanos , Masculino , Filogenia , Comportamento SexualRESUMO
Various interventions for live poultry markets (LPMs) have emerged to control outbreaks of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in mainland China since March 2013. We assessed the effectiveness of various LPM interventions in reducing transmission of H7N9 virus across 5 annual waves during 2013-2018, especially in the final wave. With the exception of waves 1 and 4, various LPM interventions reduced daily incidence rates significantly across waves. Four LPM interventions led to a mean reduction of 34%-98% in the daily number of infections in wave 5. Of these, permanent closure provided the most effective reduction in human infection with H7N9 virus, followed by long-period, short-period, and recursive closures in wave 5. The effectiveness of various LPM interventions changed with the type of intervention across epidemics. Permanent LPM closure should be considered to maintain sufficient effectiveness of interventions and prevent the recurrence of H7N9 epidemics.
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Subtipo H7N9 do Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Aviária , Influenza Humana , Animais , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Aviária/prevenção & controle , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Aves DomésticasRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The effect of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on the response to interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection remains unclear. Using a systematic review and meta-analysis approach, we aimed to investigate the effect of DAA therapy on sustained virologic response (SVR) among patients with CHC and either active, inactive or no HCC. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from 1/1/2013 to 9/24/2018. The pooled SVR rates were computed using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models. RESULTS: We included 49 studies from 15 countries, comprised of 3,341 patients with HCC and 35,701 without HCC. Overall, the pooled SVR was lower in patients with HCC than in those without HCC (89.6%, 95% CI 86.8-92.1%, I2â¯=â¯79.1% vs. 93.3%, 95% CI 91.9-94.7%, I2â¯=â¯95.0%, pâ¯=â¯0.0012), translating to a 4.8% (95% CI 0.2-7.4%) SVR reduction by meta-regression analysis. The largest SVR reduction (18.8%) occurred in patients with active/residual HCC vs. inactive/ablated HCC (SVR 73.1% vs. 92.6%, pâ¯=â¯0.002). Meanwhile, patients with HCC who received a prior liver transplant had higher SVR rates than those who did not (pâ¯<0.001). Regarding specific DAA regimens, patients with HCC treated with ledipasvir/sofosbuvir had lower SVR rates than patients without HCC (92.6%, nâ¯=â¯884 vs. 97.8%, nâ¯=â¯13,141, pâ¯=â¯0.026), but heterogeneity was high (I2â¯=â¯84.7%, pâ¯<0.001). The SVR rate was similar in patients with/without HCC who were treated with ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir⯱â¯dasabuvir (nâ¯=â¯101) (97.2% vs. 94.8%, pâ¯=â¯0.79), or daclatasvir/asunaprevir (91.7% vs. 89.8%, pâ¯=â¯0.66). CONCLUSION: Overall, SVR rates were lower in patients with HCC, especially with active HCC, compared to those without HCC, though heterogeneity was high. Continued efforts are needed to aggressively screen, diagnose, and treat HCC to ensure higher CHC cure rates. LAY SUMMARY: There are now medications (direct-acting antivirals or "DAAs") that can "cure" hepatitis C virus, but patients with hepatitis C and liver cancer may be less likely to achieve cure than those without liver cancer. However, patients with liver cancer are also more likely to have advanced liver disease and risk factors that can decrease cure rates, so better controlled studies are needed to confirm these findings.
Assuntos
Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/complicações , Hepacivirus/efeitos dos fármacos , Hepatite C Crônica/complicações , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias Hepáticas/complicações , Resposta Viral Sustentada , 2-Naftilamina , Adolescente , Adulto , Anilidas/uso terapêutico , Benzimidazóis/uso terapêutico , Carbamatos/uso terapêutico , Ciclopropanos , Feminino , Fluorenos/uso terapêutico , Humanos , Isoquinolinas/uso terapêutico , Lactamas Macrocíclicas , Transplante de Fígado , Compostos Macrocíclicos/uso terapêutico , Masculino , Prolina/análogos & derivados , Ritonavir/uso terapêutico , Sofosbuvir/uso terapêutico , Sulfonamidas/uso terapêutico , Uracila/análogos & derivados , Uracila/uso terapêutico , Valina , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Hepatic surgery is a major abdominal surgery. Epidural analgesia may decrease the incidence of postoperative morbidities. Hemostatic disorders frequently occur after hepatic resection. Insertion or withdrawal (whether accidental or not) of an epidural catheter during coagulopathic state may cause an epidural hematoma. The aim of the study is to determine the incidence of coagulopathy after hepatectomy, interfering with epidural catheter removal, and to identify the risk factors related to coagulopathy. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of a prospective, multicenter, observational database including patients over 18 years old with a history of liver resection. Main collected data were the following: age, preexisting cirrhosis, Child-Pugh class, preoperative and postoperative coagulation profiles, extent of liver resection, blood loss, blood products transfused during surgery. International normalized ratio (INR) ≥1.5 and/or platelet count <80,000/mm defined coagulopathy according to the neuraxial anesthesia guidelines. A logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between selected factors and a coagulopathic state after hepatic resection. RESULTS: One thousand three hundred seventy-one patients were assessed. Seven hundred fifty-nine patients had data available about postoperative coagulopathy, which was observed in 53.5% [95% confidence interval, 50.0-57.1]. Maximum derangement in INR occurred on the first postoperative day, and platelet count reached a trough peak on postoperative days 2 and 3. In the multivariable analysis, preexisting hepatic cirrhosis (odds ratio [OR] = 2.49 [1.38-4.51]; P = .003), preoperative INR ≥1.3 (OR = 2.39 [1.10-5.17]; P = .027), preoperative platelet count <150 G/L (OR = 3.03 [1.77-5.20]; P = .004), major hepatectomy (OR = 2.96 [2.07-4.23]; P < .001), and estimated intraoperative blood loss ≥1000 mL (OR = 1.85 [1.08-3.18]; P = .025) were associated with postoperative coagulopathy. CONCLUSIONS: Coagulopathy is frequent (53.5% [95% confidence interval, 50.0-57.1]) after liver resection. Epidural analgesia seems safe in patients undergoing minor hepatic resection without preexisting hepatic cirrhosis, showing a normal preoperative INR and platelet count.
Assuntos
Analgesia Epidural/efeitos adversos , Transtornos da Coagulação Sanguínea/epidemiologia , Coagulação Sanguínea , Hepatectomia/efeitos adversos , Idoso , Analgesia Epidural/instrumentação , Transtornos da Coagulação Sanguínea/sangue , Transtornos da Coagulação Sanguínea/diagnóstico , Perda Sanguínea Cirúrgica , Transfusão de Sangue , Cateteres de Demora , Tomada de Decisão Clínica , Bases de Dados Factuais , Remoção de Dispositivo , Feminino , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Coeficiente Internacional Normatizado , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Contagem de Plaquetas , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: HCV treatment uptake has drastically increased in HIV-HCV coinfected patients in France since direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment approval, resulting in HCV cure in 63% of all HIV-HCV patients by the end of 2015. We investigated the impact of scaling-up DAA on HCV prevalence in the whole HIV population and in various risk groups over the next 10 years in France using a transmission dynamic compartmental model. METHODS: The model was based on epidemiological data from the French Dat'AIDS cohort. Eight risk groups were considered, including high-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) men who have sex with men (MSM) and male/female heterosexuals, intra-venous drug users, or patients from other risk groups. The model was calibrated on prevalence and incidence data observed in the cohort between 2012 and 2015. RESULTS: On January 1, 2016, 156,811 patients were registered as infected with HIV in France (24,900 undiagnosed patients) of whom 7938 (5.1%) had detectable HCV-RNA (722 undiagnosed patients). Assuming a treatment coverage (TC) rate of 30%/year (i.e., the observed rate in 2015), model projections showed that HCV prevalence among HIV patients is expected to drop to 0.81% in 2026. Sub-analyses showed a similar decrease of HIV-HCV prevalence in most risk groups, including LR MSM. Due to higher infection and reinfection rates, predicted prevalence in HR MSM remained stable from 6.96% in 2016 to 6.34% in 2026. Increasing annual TC rate in HR MSM to 50/70% would decrease HCV prevalence in this group to 2.35/1.25% in 2026. With a 30% TC rate, undiagnosed patients would account for 34% of HCV infections in 2026. CONCLUSIONS: Our model suggests that DAA could nearly eliminate coinfection in France within 10 years for most risk groups, including LR MSM. Elimination in HR MSM will require increased TC.
Assuntos
Coinfecção/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Estudos de Coortes , Coinfecção/tratamento farmacológico , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Feminino , França/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Hepatite C/complicações , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos , Imunoterapia Adotiva , Incidência , Masculino , Modelos Biológicos , Modelos Estatísticos , Prevalência , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Arrival of direct-acting antiviral agents against hepatitis C virus with high-sustained virological response rates and very few side effects has drastically changed the management of hepatitis C virus infection. The impact of direct-acting antiviral exposure on hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after a first remission in patients with advanced fibrosis remains to be clarified. METHODS: 68 consecutive hepatitis C virus patients with a first hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis and under remission, subsequently treated or not with a direct-acting antiviral combination, were included. Clinical, biological and virological data were collected at first hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis, at remission and during the surveillance period. RESULTS: All patients were cirrhotic. Median age was 62 years and 76% of patients were male. Twenty-three patients (34%) were treated with direct-acting antivirals and 96% of them achieved sustained virological response. Median time between hepatocellular carcinoma remission and direct-acting antivirals initiation was 7.2 months (IQR: 3.6-13.5; range: 0.3-71.4) and median time between direct-acting antivirals start and hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence was 13.0 months (IQR: 9.2-19.6; range: 3.0-24.7). Recurrence rate was 1.7/100 person-months among treated patients vs 4.2/100 person-months among untreated patients (P=.008). In multivariate survival analysis, the hazard ratio for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after direct-acting antivirals exposure was 0.24 (95% confidence interval: 0.10-0.55; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence rate was significantly lower among patients treated with direct-acting antivirals compared with untreated patients. Given the potential impact of our observation, large-scale prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm these results.
Assuntos
Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/prevenção & controle , Hepatite C Crônica/complicações , Neoplasias Hepáticas/prevenção & controle , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/virologia , Feminino , Humanos , Neoplasias Hepáticas/etiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Prevenção SecundáriaRESUMO
We analyzed data for 170 patients in South Korea who had laboratory-confirmed infection with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. A longer incubation period was associated with a reduction in the risk for death (adjusted odds ratio/1-day increase in incubation period 0.83, 95% credibility interval 0.68-1.03).
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Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Período de Incubação de Doenças Infecciosas , Coronavírus da Síndrome Respiratória do Oriente Médio , Adulto , Idoso , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
A novel avian influenza virus, influenza A(H7N9), emerged in China in early 2013 and caused severe disease in humans, with infections occurring most frequently after recent exposure to live poultry. The distribution of A(H7N9) incubation periods is of interest to epidemiologists and public health officials, but estimation of the distribution is complicated by interval censoring of exposures. Imputation of the midpoint of intervals was used in some early studies, resulting in estimated mean incubation times of approximately 5 days. In this study, we estimated the incubation period distribution of human influenza A(H7N9) infections using exposure data available for 229 patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H7N9) infection from mainland China. A nonparametric model (Turnbull) and several parametric models accounting for the interval censoring in some exposures were fitted to the data. For the best-fitting parametric model (Weibull), the mean incubation period was 3.4 days (95% confidence interval: 3.0, 3.7) and the variance was 2.9 days; results were very similar for the nonparametric Turnbull estimate. Under the Weibull model, the 95th percentile of the incubation period distribution was 6.5 days (95% confidence interval: 5.9, 7.1). The midpoint approximation for interval-censored exposures led to overestimation of the mean incubation period. Public health observation of potentially exposed persons for 7 days after exposure would be appropriate.
Assuntos
Período de Incubação de Doenças Infecciosas , Subtipo H7N9 do Vírus da Influenza A/patogenicidade , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Modelos Estatísticos , China/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Humanos , Subtipo H7N9 do Vírus da Influenza A/isolamento & purificação , Influenza Humana/mortalidade , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Computação Matemática , Pessoa de Meia-IdadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Few previous studies have investigated the association between the severity of an infectious disease and the length of incubation period. METHODS: We estimated the association between the length of the incubation period and the severity of infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, using data from the epidemic in 2003 in Hong Kong. RESULTS: We estimated the incubation period of severe acute respiratory syndrome based on a subset of patients with available data on exposure periods and a separate subset of patients in a putative common source outbreak, and we found associations between shorter incubation period and greater severity in both groups after adjusting for potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that patients with a shorter incubation period went on to have more severe disease. Further studies are needed to investigate potential biological mechanisms for this association.
Assuntos
Período de Incubação de Doenças Infecciosas , Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave/transmissão , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Teorema de Bayes , Bases de Dados Factuais , Epidemias , Feminino , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave/diagnóstico , Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave/epidemiologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Opportunities to treat infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) are evolving rapidly. From the introduction of interferon (IFN)-α monotherapy in the early 1990s to the approval of telaprevir- and boceprevir-based triple therapies with pegylated (PEG)-IFN-α and ribavirin (RBV) in 2011, the chances of curing patients infected with HCV genotype 1 have improved dramatically to reach approximately 70%. Significant further improvements that may cure virtually all HCV patients with an all-oral, IFN-free regimen are becoming progressively available. Key Messages: Historically, a PEG-IFN/RBV combination therapy of patients with liver cirrhosis was associated with lower virological rates and a worse safety profile. The advent of the first protease inhibitor-based triple therapy was long expected, but the promise fell rapidly because of the numerous side effects and the requirement for intensive clinical management in cirrhotic patients. The newer direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) target the viral polymerase with either nucleos(t)ide analogues or nonnucleosidic inhibitors, the viral protease and the viral NS5A protein. Several clinical trials have now shown that a combination of sofosbuvir (nucleosidic polymerase inhibitor) with daclatasvir or ledipasvir (NS5A inhibitors), or sofosbuvir with simeprevir (protease inhibitor), or a combination of ABT-450 (protease inhibitor) with ritonavir (ABT-450/r), the nonnucleosidic polymerase inhibitor ABT-333 and the NS5A inhibitor ABT-267, can achieve a sustained virological response in up to 95% of naive patients or previously treated patients, even in those who failed prior treatment with first-generation protease inhibitors. The best treatment regimens enable the achievement of comparable results even in cirrhotics, while other regimens still require RBV or a longer treatment duration to achieve optimal results. This improved risk/benefit ratio justifies early access programs of IFN-free regimens for cirrhotic patients. The remaining difficult-to-treat patients are cirrhotics infected with HCV genotype 3 and those with decompensated cirrhosis, for whom novel DAA combinations should be evaluated in clinical trials. CONCLUSIONS: As new DAAs are becoming available in early access treatment programs, treatment strategy studies are being performed to optimize treatment regimens with respect to the choice of DAAs and treatment duration, based on viral genotypes, prior treatment response and the presence of liver cirrhosis. In the near future, this should allow: (i) a decrease in the complications of HCV-induced cirrhosis, (ii) liver transplantations to be performed in virally cured patients, and (iii) the rescue of patients in the worst clinical situation (decompensated cirrhosis and HCV recurrence on liver graft).
Assuntos
Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Hepacivirus/efeitos dos fármacos , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Cirrose Hepática/tratamento farmacológico , Inibidores de Proteases/uso terapêutico , 2-Naftilamina , Anilidas/uso terapêutico , Benzimidazóis/uso terapêutico , Carbamatos/uso terapêutico , Ciclopropanos , Quimioterapia Combinada , Fluorenos/uso terapêutico , Genótipo , Hepacivirus/genética , Hepatite C Crônica/complicações , Humanos , Imidazóis/uso terapêutico , Interferon-alfa/uso terapêutico , Lactamas Macrocíclicas , Cirrose Hepática/virologia , Compostos Macrocíclicos/uso terapêutico , Prolina/análogos & derivados , Pirrolidinas , Ribavirina/uso terapêutico , Sofosbuvir , Sulfonamidas/uso terapêutico , Uracila/análogos & derivados , Uracila/uso terapêutico , Uridina Monofosfato/análogos & derivados , Uridina Monofosfato/uso terapêutico , Valina/análogos & derivadosRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is associated with significant morbidity worldwide, especially among infants. We evaluated the potential impact of prophylactic nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody, in infants experiencing their first RSV season, and the number of medically-attended lower respiratory tract infection episodes caused by RSV (RSV-MALRTI) in the USA. METHODS: We developed an age-structured, dynamic, deterministic compartmental model reflecting RSV natural history, incorporating USA demographic data and an age-specific contact matrix. We assumed either no effect of nirsevimab on transmission (scenario 1) or a 50% reduction of viral shedding (scenario 2). Model outcomes were RSV-MALRTIs, ICD-9 coded in the Marketscan® database by month. We focused on age groups corresponding to the first 2 years of life, during seven RSV seasons (2008-2015). RESULTS: Scenario 1 illustrated the direct individual benefit when a universal immunization strategy is applied to all infants. In scenario 2, herd protection was observed across age groups, with 15.5% of all avoided cases due to reduced transmission; the greatest impact was in the youngest age group and a benefit was observed in those aged 65+ years. CONCLUSION: These preliminary data suggest that single-dose nirsevimab will benefit infants experiencing their first RSV season, with a potential increase in effectiveness dependent on nirsevimab's mechanism of action.
RESUMO
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, defined by active carriage of HCV RNA, affects nearly 1.0% of the worldwide population. The main risk factors include unsafe injection drug use and iatrogenic infections. Chronic HCV infection can promote liver damage, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in affected individuals. The advent of new second-generation, direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents allow a virological cure in more than 90% of treated patients, and therefore prevent HCV-related complications. Recently, concerns have been raised regarding the safety of DAA-regimens in cirrhotic patients with respect to the occurrence and the recurrence of HCC. Here, we review the current available data on HCV epidemiology, the beneficial effects of therapy, and discuss the recent controversy with respect to the potential link with liver cancer. We also highlight the challenges that have to be overcome to achieve the ambitious World Health Organization objective of HCV eradication by 2030.
Assuntos
Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/etiologia , Hepatite C Crônica/complicações , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Antivirais/economia , Antivirais/farmacologia , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/prevenção & controle , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/virologia , Hepacivirus/efeitos dos fármacos , Hepatite C Crônica/epidemiologia , Humanos , Fígado/patologia , Fígado/virologia , Cirrose Hepática/tratamento farmacológico , Cirrose Hepática/epidemiologia , Cirrose Hepática/etiologia , Cirrose Hepática/virologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/prevenção & controle , Neoplasias Hepáticas/virologia , RNA Viral/sangue , Prevenção SecundáriaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Presence of anti-E1E2 antibodies was previously associated with spontaneous cure of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and predictive before treatment of a sustained virological response (SVR) to bi- or tri-therapy in naïve or experienced patients, regardless of HCV genotype. We investigated the impact of anti-E1E2 seroprevalence at baseline on treatment response in patients receiving direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We screened anti-E1E2 antibodies by ELISA in serum samples collected at treatment initiation for two groups of patients: 59 with SVR at the end of DAA treatment and 44 relapsers after DAA treatment. Nineteen patients received a combination of ribavirin (RBV) or PEG-interferon/ribavirin with sofosbuvir or daclatasvir and others received interferon-free treatment with DAA±RBV. HCV viral load was measured at different time points during treatment in a subgroup of patients. RESULTS: A significant association was observed between presence of anti-E1E2 and HCV viral load<6log10 prior treatment. Among patients with anti-E1E2 at baseline, 70% achieved SVR whereas among patients without anti-E1E2, only 45% achieved SVR. Conversely, 66% of patients experiencing DAA-failure were anti-E1E2 negative at baseline. In the multivariate analysis, presence of anti-E1E2 was significantly associated with SVR after adjustment on potential cofounders such as age, sex, fibrosis stage, prior HCV treatment and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of anti-E1E2 at treatment initiation is a predictive factor of SVR among patients treated with DAA and more likely among patients with low initial HCV viral load (<6log10). Absence of anti-E1E2 at baseline could predict DAA-treatment failure.
Assuntos
Anticorpos/sangue , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Peptídeos/imunologia , Idoso , Biomarcadores/sangue , Carbamatos , Quimioterapia Combinada , Ensaio de Imunoadsorção Enzimática , Feminino , Hepacivirus/fisiologia , Hepatite C Crônica/virologia , Humanos , Imidazóis/uso terapêutico , Interferon-alfa/uso terapêutico , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Polietilenoglicóis/uso terapêutico , Pirrolidinas , Proteínas Recombinantes/uso terapêutico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Ribavirina/uso terapêutico , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Sofosbuvir/uso terapêutico , Valina/análogos & derivados , Carga Viral/efeitos dos fármacosRESUMO
A novel avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) virus emerged in China in March 2013 and by 27 September 2017 a total of 1533 laboratory-confirmed cases have been reported. Occurrences of animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission have been previously identified, and the force of human-to-human transmission is an important component of risk assessment. In this study, we constructed an ecological model to evaluate the animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission of H7N9 during the first three epidemic waves in spring 2013, winter/spring 2013-2014 and winter/spring 2014-2015 in China based on 149 laboratory-confirmed urban cases. Our analysis of patterns in incidence in major cities allowed us to estimate a mean incubation period in humans of 2.6 days (95% credibility interval, CrI: 1.4-3.1) and an effective reproduction number Re of 0.23 (95% CrI: 0.05-0.47) for the first wave, 0.16 (95% CrI: 0.01-0.41) for the second wave, and 0.16 (95% CrI: 0.01-0.45) for the third wave without a significant difference between waves. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of H7N9 cases after live poultry market closures in various major cities. Our analytic framework can be used for continued assessment of the risk of human to human transmission of A(H7N9) virus as human infections continue to occur in China.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Subtipo H7N9 do Vírus da Influenza A/isolamento & purificação , Influenza Aviária/transmissão , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Animais , China , Humanos , Período de Incubação de Doenças Infecciosas , Subtipo H7N9 do Vírus da Influenza A/patogenicidade , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Aves Domésticas/virologiaRESUMO
The incubation period is an important epidemiologic distribution, it is often incorporated in case definitions, used to determine appropriate quarantine periods, and is an input to mathematical modeling studies. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS) is an emerging infectious disease in the Arabian Peninsula. There was a large outbreak of MERS in South Korea in 2015. We examined the incubation period distribution of MERS coronavirus infection for cases in South Korea and in Saudi Arabia. Using parametric and nonparametric methods, we estimated a mean incubation period of 6.9 days (95% credibility interval: 6.3-7.5) for cases in South Korea and 5.0 days (95% credibility interval: 4.0-6.6) among cases in Saudi Arabia. In a log-linear regression model, the mean incubation period was 1.42 times longer (95% credibility interval: 1.18-1.71) among cases in South Korea compared to Saudi Arabia. The variation that we identified in the incubation period distribution between locations could be associated with differences in ascertainment or reporting of exposure dates and illness onset dates, differences in the source or mode of infection, or environmental differences.
Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Período de Incubação de Doenças Infecciosas , Coronavírus da Síndrome Respiratória do Oriente Médio/patogenicidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Arábia Saudita/epidemiologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Sofosbuvir (SOF) plus daclatasvir (DCV) with or without ribavirin is one of the currently recommended treatment option for chronic hepatitis C. AIMS: Our objectives were to identify factors associated with SOF/DCV plasma concentrations [C] variations and to evaluate their impact on viral kinetics. METHODS: 130 consecutive HCV patients initiating SOF/DCV therapy with or without ribavirin were enrolled. Clinical, biological, virological and pharmacological data were collected at baseline, at week 4, 8, 12, and 24 of therapy and 12 weeks after the end of therapy. RESULTS: Mean age was 57 years, 68% of patients were males, 69% were infected by HCV genotype 1 and cirrhosis was observed in 76% of patients. Multivariate analysis showed that higher SOF [C] and DCV [C] during treatment were associated with eGFR impairment and absence of cirrhosis. We found a significant correlation between the magnitude of HCV viral load decrease from day 0 to week 4 and a higher SOF [C] at week 4 (p=0.032) and a higher DCV [C] at week 8 (p=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacological monitoring showed significant associations between elevated SOF or DCV [C] and absence of cirrhosis, decreased eGFR and viral load decrease during the first month of treatment.
Assuntos
Antivirais/sangue , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Imidazóis/sangue , Sofosbuvir/sangue , Carga Viral , Idoso , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Carbamatos , Monitoramento de Medicamentos , Quimioterapia Combinada , Feminino , França , Taxa de Filtração Glomerular , Hepacivirus , Hepatite C Crônica/complicações , Humanos , Imidazóis/uso terapêutico , Modelos Lineares , Cirrose Hepática/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Pirrolidinas , Estudos Retrospectivos , Ribavirina/uso terapêutico , Sofosbuvir/uso terapêutico , Resultado do Tratamento , Valina/análogos & derivadosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: In early 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) virus emerged in China, and has caused sporadic human infections. The incubation period is the delay from infection until onset of symptoms, and varies from person to person. Few previous studies have examined whether the duration of the incubation period correlates with subsequent disease severity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed data of period of exposure on 395 human cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in China in a Bayesian framework using a Weibull distribution. We found a longer incubation period for the 173 fatal cases with a mean of 3.7 days (95% credibility interval, CrI: 3.4-4.1), compared to a mean of 3.3 days (95% CrI: 2.9-3.6) for the 222 non-fatal cases, and the difference in means was marginally significant at 0.47 days (95% CrI: -0.04, 0.99). There was a statistically significant correlation between a longer incubation period and an increased risk of death after adjustment for age, sex, geographical location and underlying medical conditions (adjusted odds ratio 1.70 per day increase in incubation period; 95% credibility interval 1.47-1.97). CONCLUSIONS: We found a significant association between a longer incubation period and a greater risk of death among human H7N9 cases. The underlying biological mechanisms leading to this association deserve further exploration.
Assuntos
Subtipo H7N9 do Vírus da Influenza A/fisiologia , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/virologia , Morte , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates vary across populations, with African American men exhibiting the highest rates. To date, genome-wide association studies have identified 104 SNPs independently associated with prostate cancer in men of European ancestry. METHODS: We investigated whether the ability to replicate findings for these 104 SNPs in African American, Asian, and Latino populations depends on variation in risk allele frequencies (RAF), strength of associations, and/or patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) at the associated loci. We extracted estimates of effect from the literature, and determined RAF and LD information across the populations from the 1000 Genomes Project. RESULTS: Risk variants were largely replicated across populations. Relative to Europeans, 83% had smaller effect sizes among African Americans and 73% demonstrated smaller effect sizes among Latinos. Among Asians, however, 56% showed larger effect sizes than among Europeans. The largest difference in RAFs was observed between European and African ancestry populations, but this difference did not impact our ability to replicate. The extent of LD within 250 kb of risk loci in Asian ancestry populations was suggestively lower for variants that did not replicate (P = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Despite substantial overlap in prostate cancer risk SNPs across populations, the variation in prostate cancer incidence among different populations may still in part reflect unique underlying genetic architectures. IMPACT: Studying different ancestral populations is crucial for deciphering the genetic basis of prostate cancer.
Assuntos
Etnicidade/genética , Frequência do Gene , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Desequilíbrio de Ligação , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único/genética , Neoplasias da Próstata/etnologia , Neoplasias da Próstata/genética , Negro ou Afro-Americano/genética , Povo Asiático/genética , Seguimentos , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Hispânico ou Latino/genética , Humanos , Masculino , Prognóstico , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores de Risco , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , População Branca/genéticaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Anemia is more frequent in patients receiving telaprevir with PEGylated interferon/ribavirin (PEG-IFN/RBV) than in those receiving PEG-IFN/RBV alone. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to measure the impact of telaprevir on RBV bioavailability and to assess the concomitant renal function. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-seven hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients non-responders to a previous course of PEG-IFN/RBV therapy and re-treated with triple therapy combining PEG-IFN/RBV and telaprevir were analyzed. RBV bioavailability was measured before the triple therapy initiation, during telaprevir treatment at week (W) 4 and W8, and after telaprevir cessation (post W16). The renal function was assessed by estimating the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). RESULTS: At W4, RBV bioavailability, expressed as mg/L/daily dose/kg body weight, was significantly increased (median increase = 0.06 mg/L/dose/kg; P < 0.001). In parallel, the renal function was impaired with a mean eGFR decrease of -6.8 mL/minutes/1.73 m² (P = 0.109). Between W4 and W8, RBV bioavailability continued to increase (P < 0.001) but subsequently decreased slightly after telaprevir discontinuation with a concomitant restoration of the renal function (eGFR increase of 6.34 mL/minutes/1.73 m²). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated a reversible increase in RBV bioavailability after telaprevir exposure, which might be linked to the impairment of the GFR. This also suggests a RBV-telaprevir pharmacological interaction, a possible source of severe anemia observed under triple therapy. These results suggest that RBV pharmacological monitoring may be clinically relevant, especially in the context of first-generation HCV protease inhibitor-based therapy.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We previously showed that pre-treatment serum anti-E1E2 predicted hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA viral kinetics (VKs) and treatment outcome in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving pegylated interferon/ribavirin (Peg-IFN/RBV) double therapy. Here, we determined whether baseline anti-E1E2 was correlated with the on-treatment VK and could predict virological outcome in treatment-experienced HCV-infected cirrhotic patients receiving protease inhibitor-based triple therapy. METHODS: Sera from 19 patients with HCV genotype 1 infection and compensated cirrhosis who failed to respond to a prior course of Peg-IFN/RBV were selected at time 0 before starting triple therapy with boceprevir or telaprevir. We assessed patients with sustained viral response 12 weeks after the end of triple therapy (SVR12) by analyzing VKs at weeks 4, 12, 24, 36, 48 (end of treatment) and 60. RESULTS: Patients baseline characteristics were similar to the well-defined CUPIC cohort (age, HCV subtype, baseline viremia, and treatment history). Among the 19 patients, 11 achieved an SVR12. Fifteen patients were positive for pre-treatment anti-E1E2 and all of them achieved SVR12. Moreover, anti-E1E2 and SVR12 correlated with prior response to IFN/RBV therapy (relapse, partial or null response). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline anti-E1E2 could be considered as a new biomarker to predict SVR12 after triple therapy in this most difficult-to-treat population. These results warrant further validation on larger cohorts including patients receiving highly effective direct-acting antivirals to explore whether this test could help in better defining treatment duration for these very costly molecules.