Development and validation of a risk-adjustment index for older patients: the high-risk diagnoses for the elderly scale.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a risk-adjustment index for 1-year mortality specific to older people, based on administrative discharge diagnoses. DESIGN: Two prospective cohort studies, in tandem. The index developed in the initial cohort was subsequently validated in a separate cohort. SETTING: General medicine service of a university teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: For the development cohort, 524 hospitalized general medical patients aged 70 and older. For the validation cohort, 852 comparable patients. MEASUREMENTS: Administrative diagnosis data were used to construct the proposed index and several other widely used indices (Deyo-adapted Charlson; Acute Physiology, Age, Chronic Health Evaluation III conditions; total number of diagnoses; All Patient Refined Diagnosis Related Groups; and Disease Staging). We used receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Cox proportional hazards modeling to compare our proposed index with the other indices with respect to predictive accuracy and strength of association with 1-year mortality. RESULTS: The High-Risk Diagnoses for the Elderly Scale was developed using 10 high-risk medical diagnoses. Individual condition weights, based on the magnitude of 1-year mortality risk, ranged from 1 (pneumonia, diabetes mellitus with end-organ damage) to 6 (lymphoma/leukemia); possible index scores ranged from 0 to 27. Mortality rates for patients categorized into four risk groups based on the index were 9.5%, 31.8%, 46.4%, and 73.6% in the development cohort (C statistic = 0.76), and 9.9%, 24.3%, 33.6%, and 50.8% in the validation subjects (C statistic = 0.68). The new index was a stronger predictor of mortality than several widely used measures. CONCLUSION: The High-Risk Diagnoses for the Elderly Scale, based on readily available administrative data,is a simple, accurate system for prediction of 1-year mortality in older hospitalized patients that demonstrated generalizability to an independent sample. Future studies are needed to test this index in other settings and populations.

Association between functional status and use and effectiveness of beta-blocker prophylaxis in elderly survivors of acute myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether physical and cognitive impairments explain low use of beta-blockers in elderly patients and whether functionally impaired older adults have improved survival if a beta-blocker is prescribed at hospital discharge. DESIGN: Cross-sectional and retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Acute care hospitals in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: National cohort of 45,370 elderly acute myocardial infarction survivors, with no chart-documented contraindications to beta-blocker treatment. MEASUREMENTS: The main outcome measures were beta-blocker prescription at hospital discharge and 1-year survival. RESULTS: Fifty percent (n=22,683) of eligible patients were prescribed a beta-blocker at discharge. Older age and functional impairments (incontinence, mobility impairment, and cognitive impairment) were independently associated with decreased use of beta-blockers. The odds ratios for prescribing a beta-blocker at hospital discharge were 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.77-0.86), 0.63 (95% CI=0.56-0.71), and 0.40 (95% CI=0.32-0.51) for persons with one, two, and three impairments, respectively, compared with those with no impairments. In survival analysis, patients prescribed a beta-blocker were 21% less likely than nonrecipients to die within 1 year of follow-up (relative risk=0.79, P=.0001). Similar survival benefit was observed in patients with and without functional impairments. CONCLUSION: This study shows a strong association between functional impairment and the use of beta-blockers after acute myocardial infarction in elderly patients. The results suggest that increasing use of beta-blockers in this group provides an opportunity to improve outcomes.

Gabapentin for hot flashes in prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To report a case of successful treatment of refractory hot flashes with gabapentin in a patient with prostate cancer who was receiving combination antiandrogen and gonadotropin hormone-releasing hormone (GnRH) analog therapy. CASE SUMMARY: A 70-year-old white man with a history of advancing prostate cancer experienced disabling hot flashes from combination therapy with the antiandrogen bicalutamide and the GnRH analog goserelin acetate. He failed to respond to clonidine 0.1 mg twice daily, megestrol acetate 40 mg/d, diethylstilbestrol 1 mg/d, and venlafaxine 25 mg twice daily. The patient was then treated with gabapentin 600 mg once daily, at which time he experienced near-complete resolution of his symptoms. DISCUSSION: This case supports a previous report of the marked improvement in severity and duration of hot flashes associated with antiandrogen or GnRH analog therapy in prostate cancer. The mechanism by which gabapentin reduces hot flashes is unknown. CONCLUSIONS: Hot flashes resulting from antiandrogen or GnRH analog therapy are often difficult to treat and leave many patients disabled. Gabapentin has been shown to markedly reduce the severity, frequency, and duration of these hot flashes. Controlled trials are necessary to evaluate gabapentin against other therapeutic modalities.

Burden of illness score for elderly persons: risk adjustment incorporating the cumulative impact of diseases, physiologic abnormalities, and functional impairments.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a new risk adjustment index-the Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons (BISEP)-which integrates multiple domains, including diseases, physiologic abnormalities, and functional impairments. RESEARCH DESIGN SUBJECTS: The index was developed in a prospective cohort of 525 patients aged > or = 70 years from the medicine service of a university hospital. The index was validated in a cohort of 1246 patients aged > or = 65 years from 27 hospitals. The outcome was 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Five risk factors were selected from diagnosis, laboratory, and functional status axes: high-risk diagnoses, albumin < or = 3.5 mg/dL, creatinine >1.5 mg/dL, dementia, and walking impairment. The BISEP score (range 0-7) created four groups of increasing risk: group I (score 0-1), group II (2), group III (3), and group IV (> or = 4). In the development cohort, where overall mortality was 154/525 (29%), 1-year mortality rates increased significantly across each risk group, from 8% to 24%, 51%, and 74%, in groups I to IV respectively (chi(2) trend, = 0.001)--an overall 17-fold increased risk by hazard ratio. The c-statistic for the final model was 0.83. Corresponding rates in the validation cohort, where overall mortality was 488/1246 (39%), were 5%, 17%, 33%, and 61% in groups I to IV, respectively (chi(2) trend, = 0.001)-an overall 18-fold increased risk by hazard ratio. The c-statistic for the final model was 0.77. In each cohort, sequential addition of variables from different sources (eg, administrative, laboratory, and chart) substantially improved model fit and predictive accuracy. BISEP had significantly superior mortality prediction compared with five widely used measures. CONCLUSIONS: BISEP provides a useful new risk adjustment system for hospitalized older persons. Although index performance using different data sources has been evaluated, the full BISEP model, incorporating disease, laboratory, and functional impairment information, demonstrates the best performance.