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INTRODUCTION: Climate factors play an important role in the transmission of viruses, such as influenza viruses, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-1. This study aimed to determine the relationship between changes in temperature, humidity, rainfall, and SARS-CoV-2 contagion. Five ecologically and climatically distinct regions were considered-Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar, and Gilgit-Baltistan. METHOD: Data on daily COVID-19 cases and deaths were retrieved from government officials, while meteorological information was collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department.. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 20 and the Spearman rank correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between the meteorological factors and COVID-19 cases and deaths. RESULT: Positive correlation of COVID-19 incidence was observed with all the temperature ranges (maximum, minimum and average) and negative correlation was seen with humidity, DTR and rainfall. COVID-19 deaths were positively associated with temperature and were negatively associated only with humidity. Linear regression showed that for every unit increase in humidity, there was a -3.345 daily significant decrease in COVID-19 cases, while in Karachi for every unit increase in humidity, there remained a 10.104 daily significant increase in cases. In Gilgit-Baltistan, for every unit increase in average temperature and rainfall respectively, significant increases of 0.534 and 1.286 in daily cases were found. CONCLUSION: This study signifies the effect of climate factors on COVID-19 incidence and mortality rate, but climate factors are not the only variable and several other interlinked factors enhance the spread of COVID-19. Hence, effective mitigation policies, enhancing testing capacities, and developing public attitudes toward adopting precautionary measures are important to overcome this overwhelming pandemic.
RESUMO
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is caused by SARs-CoV-2. The virus is transmitted from person to person through droplet infections i.e. when infected person is in close contact with another person. In January 2020, first report of detection of SARS-CoV-2 in faeces, has made it clear that human wastewater might contain this virus. This may illustrate the probability of environmentally facilitated transmission, mainly the sewage, however, environmental conditions that could facilitate faecal oral transmission is not yet clear. We used existing Pakistan polio environment surveillance network to investigate presence of SARs-CoV-2 using three commercially available kits and E-Gene detection published assay for surety and confirmatory of positivity. A Two-phase separation method is used for sample clarification and concentration. An additional high-speed centrifugation (14000Xg for 30 min) step was introduced, prior RNA extraction, to increase viral RNA yield resulting a decrease in Cq value. A total of 78 wastewater samples collected from 38 districts across Pakistan, 74 wastewater samples from existing polio environment surveillance sites, 3 from drains of COVID-19 infected areas and 1 from COVID 19 quarantine center drainage, were tested for presence of SARs-CoV-2. 21 wastewater samples (27%) from 13 districts turned to be positive on RT-qPCR. SARs-COV-2 RNA positive samples from areas with COVID 19 patients and quarantine center strengthen the findings and use of wastewater surveillance in future. Furthermore, sequence data of partial ORF 1a generated from COVID 19 patient quarantine center drainage sample also reinforce our findings that SARs-CoV-2 can be detected in wastewater. This study finding indicates that SARs-CoV-2 detection through wastewater surveillance has an epidemiologic potential that can be used as supplementary system to monitor viral tracking and circulation in cities with lower COVID-19 testing capacity or heavily populated areas where door-to-door tracing may not be possible. However, attention is needed on virus concentration and detection assay to increase the sensitivity. Development of highly sensitive assay will be an indicator for virus monitoring and to provide early warning signs.