A latitudinal gradient in thermal transgenerational plasticity and a test of theory.

Transgenerational plasticity (TGP) occurs when phenotypes are shaped by the environment in both the current and preceding generations. Transgenerational responses to rainfall, CO2 and temperature suggest that TGP may play an important role in how species cope with climate change. However, little is known about how TGP will evolve as climate change continues. Here, we provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the predictability of the environment influences the magnitude of the transgenerational response. To do so, we take advantage of the latitudinal decrease in the predictability of temperatures in near shore waters along the US East Coast. Using sheepshead minnows (Cyprinodon variegatus) from South Carolina, Maryland, and Connecticut, we found the first evidence for a latitudinal gradient in thermal TGP. Moreover, the degree of TGP in these populations depends linearly on the decorrelation time for temperature, providing support for the hypothesis that thermal predictability drives the evolution of these traits.

Using seasonal genomic changes to understand historical adaptation to new environments: Parallel selection on stickleback in highly-variable estuaries.

Parallel evolution is considered strong evidence for natural selection. However, few studies have investigated the process of parallel selection as it plays out in real time. The common approach is to study historical signatures of selection in populations already well adapted to different environments. Here, to document selection under natural conditions, we study six populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) inhabiting bar-built estuaries that undergo seasonal cycles of environmental changes. Estuaries are periodically isolated from the ocean due to sandbar formation during dry summer months, with concurrent environmental shifts that resemble the long-term changes associated with postglacial colonization of freshwater habitats by marine populations. We used pooled whole-genome sequencing to track seasonal allele frequency changes in six of these populations and search for signatures of natural selection. We found consistent changes in allele frequency across estuaries, suggesting a potential role for parallel selection. Functional enrichment among candidate genes included transmembrane ion transport and calcium binding, which are important for osmoregulation and ion balance. The genomic changes that occur in threespine stickleback from bar-built estuaries could provide a glimpse into the early stages of adaptation that have occurred in many historical marine to freshwater transitions.

Adaptation in temporally variable environments: stickleback armor in periodically breaching bar-built estuaries.

The evolutionary consequences of temporal variation in selection remain hotly debated. We explored these consequences by studying threespine stickleback in a set of bar-built estuaries along the central California coast. In most years, heavy rains induce water flow strong enough to break through isolating sand bars, connecting streams to the ocean. New sand bars typically re-form within a few weeks or months, thereby re-isolating populations within the estuaries. These breaching events cause severe and often extremely rapid changes in abiotic and biotic conditions, including shifts in predator abundance. We investigated whether this strong temporal environmental variation can maintain within-population variation while eroding adaptive divergence among populations that would be caused by spatial variation in selection. We used neutral genetic markers to explore population structure and then analysed how stickleback armor traits, the associated genes Eda and Pitx1 and elemental composition (%P) varies within and among populations. Despite strong gene flow, we detected evidence for divergence in stickleback defensive traits and Eda genotypes associated with predation regime. However, this among-population variation was lower than that observed among other stickleback populations exposed to divergent predator regimes. In addition, within-population variation was very high as compared to populations from environmentally stable locations. Elemental composition was strongly associated with armor traits, Eda genotype and the presence of predators, thus suggesting that spatiotemporal variation in armor traits generates corresponding variation in elemental phenotypes. We conclude that gene flow, and especially temporal environmental variation, can maintain high levels of within-population variation while reducing, but not eliminating, among-population variation driven by spatial environmental variation.

Habitat association in populations on landscapes with continuous-valued heterogeneous habitat quality.

We explore a spatially implicit patch-occupancy model of a population on a landscape with continuous-valued heterogeneous habitat quality, primarily considering the case where the habitat quality of a site affects the mortality rate but not the fecundity of individuals at that site. Two analytical approaches to the model are constructed, by summing over the sites in the landscape and by integrating over the range of habitat quality. We obtain results relating the equilibrium population density and all moments of the probability distribution of the habitat quality of occupied sites, and relating the probability distributions of total habitat quality and occupied habitat quality. Special cases are considered for landscapes where habitat quality has either a uniform or a linear probability density function. For these cases, we demonstrate habitat association, where the quality of occupied sites is higher than the overall mean quality of all sites; the discrepancy between the two is reduced at larger population densities. The variance of the quality of occupied sites may be greater or less than the overall variance of habitat quality, depending on the distribution of habitat quality across the landscape. Increasing the variance of habitat quality is also shown to increase the ability of a population to persist on a landscape.

Eco-evolutionary trophic dynamics: loss of top predators drives trophic evolution and ecology of prey.

Ecosystems are being altered on a global scale by the extirpation of top predators. The ecological effects of predator removal have been investigated widely; however, predator removal can also change natural selection acting on prey, resulting in contemporary evolution. Here we tested the role of predator removal on the contemporary evolution of trophic traits in prey. We utilized a historical introduction experiment where Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) were relocated from a site with predatory fishes to a site lacking predators. To assess the trophic consequences of predator release, we linked individual morphology (cranial, jaw, and body) to foraging performance. Our results show that predator release caused an increase in guppy density and a "sharpening" of guppy trophic traits, which enhanced food consumption rates. Predator release appears to have shifted natural selection away from predator escape ability and towards resource acquisition ability. Related diet and mesocosm studies suggest that this shift enhances the impact of guppies on lower trophic levels in a fashion nuanced by the omnivorous feeding ecology of the species. We conclude that extirpation of top predators may commonly select for enhanced feeding performance in prey, with important cascading consequences for communities and ecosystems.