Systematic review of approaches to use of neighborhood-level risk factors with clinical data to predict clinical risk and recommend interventions.

BACKGROUND: Despite a large body of literature investigating how the environment influences health outcomes, most published work to date includes only a limited subset of the rich clinical and environmental data that is available and does not address how these data might best be used to predict clinical risk or expected impact of clinical interventions. OBJECTIVE: Identify existing approaches to inclusion of a broad set of neighborhood-level risk factors with clinical data to predict clinical risk and recommend interventions. METHODS: A systematic review of scientific literature published and indexed in PubMed, Web of Science, Association of Computing Machinery (ACM) and SCOPUS from 2010 through October 2020 was performed. To be included, articles had to include search terms related to Electronic Health Record (EHR) data Neighborhood-Level Risk Factors (NLRFs), and Machine Learning (ML) Methods. Citations of relevant articles were also reviewed for additional articles for inclusion. Articles were reviewed and coded by two independent reviewers to capture key information including data sources, linkage of EHR to NRLFs, methods, and results. Articles were assessed for quality using a modified Quality Assessment Tool for Systematic Reviews of Observational Studies (QATSO). RESULTS: A total of 334 articles were identified for abstract review. 36 articles were identified for full review with 19 articles included in the final analysis. All but two of the articles included socio-demographic data derived from the U.S. Census and we found great variability in sources of NLRFs beyond the Census. The majority or the articles (14 of 19) included broader clinical (e.g. medications, labs and co-morbidities) and demographic information about the individual from the EHR in addition to the clinical outcome variable. Half of the articles (10) had a stated goal to predict the outcome(s) of interest. While results of the studies reinforced the correlative association of NLRFs to clinical outcomes, only one article found that adding NLRFs into a model with other data added predictive power with the remainder concluding either that NLRFs were of mixed value depending on the model and outcome or that NLRFs added no predictive power over other data in the model. Only one article scored high on the quality assessment with 13 scoring moderate and 4 scoring low. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of growing interest in combining NLRFs with EHR data for clinical prediction, we found limited evidence that NLRFs improve predictive power in clinical risk models. We found these data and methods are being used in four ways. First, early approaches to include broad NLRFs to predict clinical risk primarily focused on dimension reduction for feature selection or as a data preparation step to input into regression analysis. Second, more recent work incorporates NLRFs into more advanced predictive models, such as Neural Networks, Random Forest, and Penalized Lasso to predict clinical outcomes or predict value of interventions. Third, studies that test how inclusion of NLRFs predict clinical risk have shown mixed results regarding the value of these data over EHR or claims data alone and this review surfaced evidence of potential quality challenges and biases inherent to this approach. Finally, NLRFs were used with unsupervised learning to identify underlying patterns in patient populations to recommend targeted interventions. Further access to computable, high quality data is needed along with careful study design, including sub-group analysis, to better determine how these data and methods can be used to support decision making in a clinical setting.

Circulating tumour DNA analysis to direct therapy in advanced breast cancer (plasmaMATCH): a multicentre, multicohort, phase 2a, platform trial.

BACKGROUND: Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) testing might provide a current assessment of the genomic profile of advanced cancer, without the need to repeat tumour biopsy. We aimed to assess the accuracy of ctDNA testing in advanced breast cancer and the ability of ctDNA testing to select patients for mutation-directed therapy. METHODS: We did an open-label, multicohort, phase 2a, platform trial of ctDNA testing in 18 UK hospitals. Participants were women (aged ≥18 years) with histologically confirmed advanced breast cancer and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0-2. Patients had completed at least one previous line of treatment for advanced breast cancer or relapsed within 12 months of neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients were recruited into four parallel treatment cohorts matched to mutations identified in ctDNA: cohort A comprised patients with ESR1 mutations (treated with intramuscular extended-dose fulvestrant 500 mg); cohort B comprised patients with HER2 mutations (treated with oral neratinib 240 mg, and if oestrogen receptor-positive with intramuscular standard-dose fulvestrant); cohort C comprised patients with AKT1 mutations and oestrogen receptor-positive cancer (treated with oral capivasertib 400 mg plus intramuscular standard-dose fulvestrant); and cohort D comprised patients with AKT1 mutations and oestrogen receptor-negative cancer or PTEN mutation (treated with oral capivasertib 480 mg). Each cohort had a primary endpoint of confirmed objective response rate. For cohort A, 13 or more responses among 78 evaluable patients were required to infer activity and three or more among 16 were required for cohorts B, C, and D. Recruitment to all cohorts is complete and long-term follow-up is ongoing. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03182634; the European Clinical Trials database, EudraCT2015-003735-36; and the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN16945804. FINDINGS: Between Dec 21, 2016, and April 26, 2019, 1051 patients registered for the study, with ctDNA results available for 1034 patients. Agreement between ctDNA digital PCR and targeted sequencing was 96-99% (n=800, kappa 0·89-0·93). Sensitivity of digital PCR ctDNA testing for mutations identified in tissue sequencing was 93% (95% CI 83-98) overall and 98% (87-100) with contemporaneous biopsies. In all cohorts, combined median follow-up was 14·4 months (IQR 7·0-23·7). Cohorts B and C met or exceeded the target number of responses, with five (25% [95% CI 9-49]) of 20 patients in cohort B and four (22% [6-48]) of 18 patients in cohort C having a response. Cohorts A and D did not reach the target number of responses, with six (8% [95% CI 3-17]) of 74 in cohort A and two (11% [1-33]) of 19 patients in cohort D having a response. The most common grade 3-4 adverse events were raised gamma-glutamyltransferase (13 [16%] of 80 patients; cohort A); diarrhoea (four [25%] of 20; cohort B); fatigue (four [22%] of 18; cohort C); and rash (five [26%] of 19; cohort D). 17 serious adverse reactions occurred in 11 patients, and there was one treatment-related death caused by grade 4 dyspnoea (in cohort C). INTERPRETATION: ctDNA testing offers accurate, rapid genotyping that enables the selection of mutation-directed therapies for patients with breast cancer, with sufficient clinical validity for adoption into routine clinical practice. Our results demonstrate clinically relevant activity of targeted therapies against rare HER2 and AKT1 mutations, confirming these mutations could be targetable for breast cancer treatment. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, AstraZeneca, and Puma Biotechnology.

Adventitial macrophage accumulation impairs perivascular nerve function in mesenteric arteries with inflammatory bowel disease.

Introduction: Inflammatory bowel disease involves aberrant immune responses and is associated with both cardiovascular disease risk and altered intestinal blood flow. However, little is known about how inflammatory bowel disease affects regulation of perivascular nerves that mediate blood flow. Previous work found perivascular nerve function is impaired in mesenteric arteries with Inflammatory bowel disease. The purpose of this study was to determine the mechanism of impaired perivascular nerve function. Methods: RNA sequencing was performed on mesenteric arteries from IL10-/- mice treated with H. hepaticus to induce disease (inflammatory bowel disease) or left non-gavaged (Control). For all other studies, Control and Inflammatory bowel disease mice received either saline or clodronate liposome injections to study the effect of macrophage depletion. Perivascular nerve function was assessed using pressure myography and electrical field stimulation. Leukocyte populations, and perivascular nerves, and adventitial neurotransmitter receptors were labeled using fluorescent immunolabeling. Results: Inflammatory bowel disease was associated with increases in macrophage-associated gene expression, and immunolabeling showed accumulation of adventitial macrophages. Clodronate liposome injection eliminated adventitial macrophages, which reversed significant attenuation of sensory vasodilation, sympathetic vasoconstriction and sensory inhibition of sympathetic constriction in inflammatory bowel disease. Acetylcholine-mediated dilation was impaired in inflammatory bowel disease and restored after macrophage depletion, but sensory dilation remained nitric oxide independent regardless of disease and/or macrophage presence. Conclusion: Altered neuro-immune signaling between macrophages and perivascular nerves in the arterial adventitia contributes to impaired vasodilation, particularly via dilatory sensory nerves. Targeting the adventitial macrophage population may help preserve intestinal blood flow in Inflammatory bowel disease patients.

Magneto-optical trapping in a near-suface borehole.

Borehole gravity sensing can be used in a number of applications to measure features around a well, including rock-type change mapping and determination of reservoir porosity. Quantum technology gravity sensors, based on atom interferometry, have the ability to offer increased survey speeds and reduced need for calibration. While surface sensors have been demonstrated in real world environments, significant improvements in robustness and reductions to radial size, weight, and power consumption are required for such devices to be deployed in boreholes. To realise the first step towards the deployment of cold atom-based sensors down boreholes, we demonstrate a borehole-deployable magneto-optical trap, the core package of many cold atom-based systems. The enclosure containing the magneto-optical trap itself had an outer radius of (60 ± 0.1) mm at its widest point and a length of (890 ± 5) mm. This system was used to generate atom clouds at 1 m intervals in a 14 cm wide, 50 m deep borehole, to simulate how in-borehole gravity surveys are performed. During the survey, the system generated, on average, clouds of (3.0 ± 0.1) × 105 87Rb atoms with the standard deviation in atom number across the survey observed to be as low as 8.9 × 104.

Molecular blood typing augments serologic testing and allows for enhanced matching of red blood cells for transfusion in patients with sickle cell disease.

BACKGROUND: Sickle cell disease (SCD) patients have dissimilar red blood cell (RBC) phenotypes compared to the primarily Caucasian blood donor base due, in part, to underlying complex Rh and silenced Duffy expression. Gene array-based technology offers high-throughput antigen typing of blood donors and can identify patients with altered genotypes. The purpose of the study was to ascertain if RBC components drawn from predominantly Caucasian donors could provide highly antigen-matched products for molecularly typed SCD patients. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: SCD patients were genotyped by a molecular array (HEA Beadchip, BioArray Solutions). The extended antigen phenotype (C, c, E, e, K, k, Jk(a) , Jk(b) , Fy(a) , Fy(b) , S, s) was used to query the inventory using different matching algorithms; the resulting number of products was recorded. RESULTS: A mean of 96.2 RBC products was available for each patient at basic-level, 34 at mid-level, and 16.3 at high-level stringency. The number of negative antigens correlated negatively with the number of available products. The Duffy silencing mutation in the promoter region (67T>C) (GATA) was found in 96.5% of patients. Allowing Fy(b+) products for patients with GATA increased the number of available products by up to 180%, although it does not ensure prevention of Duffy antibodies in all patients. CONCLUSIONS: This feasibility study provides evidence that centers with primarily Caucasian donors may be able to provide highly antigen-matched products. Knowledge of the GATA status expands the inventory of antigen-matched products. Further work is needed to determine the most clinically appropriate match level for SCD patients.

Operational complexity versus design efficiency: challenges of implementing a phase IIa multiple parallel cohort targeted treatment platform trial in advanced breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Platform trial designs are used increasingly in cancer clinical research and are considered an efficient model for evaluating multiple compounds within a single disease or disease subtype. However, these trial designs can be challenging to operationalise. The use of platform trials in oncology clinical research has increased considerably in recent years as advances in molecular biology enable molecularly defined stratification of patient populations and targeted therapy evaluation. Whereas multiple separate trials may be deemed infeasible, platform designs allow efficient, parallel evaluation of multiple targeted therapies in relatively small biologically defined patient sub-populations with the promise of increased molecular screening efficiency and reduced time for drug evaluation. Whilst the theoretical efficiencies are widely reported, the operational challenges associated with these designs (complexity, cost, regulatory, resource) are not always well understood. MAIN: In this commentary, we describe our practical experience of the implementation and delivery of the UK plasmaMATCH trial, a platform trial in advanced breast cancer, comprising an integrated screening component and multiple parallel downstream mutation-directed therapeutic cohorts. plasmaMATCH reported its primary results within 3 years of opening to recruitment. We reflect on the operational challenges encountered and share lessons learnt to inform the successful conduct of future trials. Key to the success of the plasmaMATCH trial was well co-ordinated stakeholder engagement by an experienced clinical trials unit with expert methodology and trial management expertise, a federated model of clinical leadership, a well-written protocol integrating screening and treatment components and including justification for the chosen structure and intentions for future adaptions, and an integrated funding model with streamlined contractual arrangements across multiple partners. Findings based on our practical experience include the importance of early engagement with the regulators and consideration of a flexible resource infrastructure to allow adequate resource allocation to support concurrent trial activities as adaptions are implemented in parallel to the continued management of patient safety and data quality of the ongoing trial cohorts. CONCLUSION: Platform trial designs allow the efficient reporting of multiple treatment cohorts. Operational challenges can be overcome through multidisciplinary engagement, streamlined contracting processes, rationalised protocol and database design and appropriate resourcing.

Genomic profile of advanced breast cancer in circulating tumour DNA.

The genomics of advanced breast cancer (ABC) has been described through tumour tissue biopsy sequencing, although these approaches are limited by geographical and temporal heterogeneity. Here we use plasma circulating tumour DNA sequencing to interrogate the genomic profile of ABC in 800 patients in the plasmaMATCH trial. We demonstrate diverse subclonal resistance mutations, including enrichment of HER2 mutations in HER2 positive disease, co-occurring ESR1 and MAP kinase pathway mutations in HR + HER2- disease that associate with poor overall survival (p = 0.0092), and multiple PIK3CA mutations in HR + disease that associate with short progression free survival on fulvestrant (p = 0.0036). The fraction of cancer with a mutation, the clonal dominance of a mutation, varied between genes, and within hotspot mutations of ESR1 and PIK3CA. In ER-positive breast cancer subclonal mutations were enriched in an APOBEC mutational signature, with second hit PIK3CA mutations acquired subclonally and at sites characteristic of APOBEC mutagenesis. This study utilises circulating tumour DNA analysis in a large clinical trial to demonstrate the subclonal diversification of pre-treated advanced breast cancer, identifying distinct mutational processes in advanced ER-positive breast cancer, and novel therapeutic opportunities.

Randomized, phase III trial of sequential epirubicin and docetaxel versus epirubicin alone in postmenopausal patients with node-positive breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The Docetaxel Epirubicin Adjuvant (DEVA) trial evaluated the efficacy and toxicity of incorporating docetaxel after epirubicin to create a sequential anthracycline-taxane regimen in early breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: After complete tumor excision, postmenopausal women with node-positive early breast cancer were randomly assigned to either epirubicin 50 mg/m(2) on days 1 and 8 every 4 weeks for six cycles (EPI × 6) or three cycles of epirubicin 50 mg/m(2) on days 1 and 8 every 4 weeks followed by three cycles of docetaxel 100 mg/m(2) on day 1 every 3 weeks (EPI-DOC). A subset of patients also participated in a quality of life (QOL) study. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS). RESULTS: From 1997 to 2005, 803 patients entered DEVA (EPI × 6, n = 397; EPI-DOC, n = 406). At a median follow-up of 64.7 months (interquartile range, 45.2 to 84.4 months), 198 DFS events had been reported (EPI × 6, n = 114; EPI-DOC, n = 84). The 5-year DFS rates were 72.7% (95% CI, 68.0% to 77.3%) for epirubicin alone and 79.5% (95% CI, 75.2% to 83.8%) for epirubicin followed by docetaxel; evidence of improvement in DFS was observed with EPI-DOC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.68; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.91; P = .008). One hundred twenty-seven patients have died (EPI × 6, n = 75; EPI-DOC, n = 52); a reduction in deaths was observed with EPI-DOC (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.94; P = .02). The 5-year overall survival rates were 81.8% (95% CI, 77.7% to 85.9%) for epirubicin and 88.9% (95% CI, 85.5% to 92.2%) for epirubicin followed by docetaxel. Assessment of toxicity and QOL showed that EPI-DOC was associated with greater toxicity but with no difference in QOL between arms during follow-up. CONCLUSION: These results suggest, within a relatively small trial, that substitution of docetaxel for epirubicin for the last three cycles of chemotherapy results in improved outcome in postmenopausal women with node-positive, early breast cancer compared with six cycles of epirubicin monotherapy.