Multicenter Trial of a Combination Probiotic for Children with Gastroenteritis.

BACKGROUND: Gastroenteritis accounts for approximately 1.7 million visits to the emergency department (ED) by children in the United States every year. Data to determine whether the use of probiotics improves outcomes in these children are lacking. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial involving 886 children 3 to 48 months of age with gastroenteritis who presented to six pediatric EDs in Canada. Participants received a 5-day course of a combination probiotic product containing Lactobacillus rhamnosus R0011 and L. helveticus R0052, at a dose of 4.0×109 colony-forming units twice daily or placebo. The primary outcome was moderate-to-severe gastroenteritis, which was defined according to a post-enrollment modified Vesikari scale symptom score of 9 or higher (scores range from 0 to 20, with higher scores indicating more severe disease). Secondary outcomes included the duration of diarrhea and vomiting, the percentage of children who had unscheduled physician visits, and the presence or absence of adverse events. RESULTS: Moderate-to-severe gastroenteritis within 14 days after enrollment occurred in 108 of 414 participants (26.1%) who were assigned to probiotics and 102 of 413 participants (24.7%) who were assigned to placebo (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77 to 1.46; P=0.72). After adjustment for trial site, age, detection of rotavirus in stool, and frequency of diarrhea and vomiting before enrollment, trial-group assignment did not predict moderate-to-severe gastroenteritis (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.49; P=0.74). There were no significant differences between the probiotic group and the placebo group in the median duration of diarrhea (52.5 hours [interquartile range, 18.3 to 95.8] and 55.5 hours [interquartile range, 20.2 to 102.3], respectively; P=0.31) or vomiting (17.7 hours [interquartile range, 0 to 58.6] and 18.7 hours [interquartile range, 0 to 51.6], P=0.18), the percentages of participants with unscheduled visits to a health care provider (30.2% and 26.6%; odds ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.62; P=0.27), and the percentage of participants who reported an adverse event (34.8% and 38.7%; odds ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.11; P=0.21). CONCLUSIONS: In children who presented to the emergency department with gastroenteritis, twice-daily administration of a combined L. rhamnosus-L. helveticus probiotic did not prevent the development of moderate-to-severe gastroenteritis within 14 days after enrollment. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; PROGUT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01853124 .).

Vitamin D Supplementation in Pregnancy and Lactation and Infant Growth.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether maternal vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and lactation improves fetal and infant growth in regions where vitamin D deficiency is common. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in Bangladesh to assess the effects of weekly prenatal vitamin D supplementation (from 17 to 24 weeks of gestation until birth) and postpartum vitamin D supplementation on the primary outcome of infants' length-for-age z scores at 1 year according to World Health Organization (WHO) child growth standards. One group received neither prenatal nor postpartum vitamin D (placebo group). Three groups received prenatal supplementation only, in doses of 4200 IU (prenatal 4200 group), 16,800 IU (prenatal 16,800 group), and 28,000 IU (prenatal 28,000 group). The fifth group received prenatal supplementation as well as 26 weeks of postpartum supplementation in the amount of 28,000 IU (prenatal and postpartum 28,000 group). RESULTS: Among 1164 infants assessed at 1 year of age (89.5% of 1300 pregnancies), there were no significant differences across groups in the mean (±SD) length-for-age z scores. Scores were as follows: placebo, -0.93±1.05; prenatal 4200, -1.11±1.12; prenatal 16,800, -0.97±0.97; prenatal 28,000, -1.06±1.07; and prenatal and postpartum 28,000, -0.94±1.00 (P=0.23 for a global test of differences across groups). Other anthropometric measures, birth outcomes, and morbidity did not differ significantly across groups. Vitamin D supplementation had expected effects on maternal and infant serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and calcium concentrations, maternal urinary calcium excretion, and maternal parathyroid hormone concentrations. There were no significant differences in the frequencies of adverse events across groups, with the exception of a higher rate of possible hypercalciuria among the women receiving the highest dose. CONCLUSIONS: In a population with widespread prenatal vitamin D deficiency and fetal and infant growth restriction, maternal vitamin D supplementation from midpregnancy until birth or until 6 months post partum did not improve fetal or infant growth. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01924013 .).

Bayesian methods for pilot studies.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The use of pilot studies to help inform the design of randomized controlled trials has increased significantly over the last couple of decades. A pilot study can provide estimates of feasibility parameters, such as the recruitment, compliance and follow-up probabilities. The use of frequentist confidence intervals of these estimates fails to provide a meaningful measure of the uncertainty as it pertains to the design of the associated randomized controlled trial. The objective of this article is to introduce Bayesian methods for the analysis of pilot studies for determining the feasibility of an associated randomized controlled trial. METHODS: An example from the literature is used to illustrate the advantages of a Bayesian approach for accounting for the uncertainty in pilot study results when assessing the feasibility of an associated randomized controlled trial. Vague beta distribution priors for the feasibility parameters are used. Based on the results from a feasibility study, simulation methods are used to determine the expected power of specified recruitment strategies for an associated randomized controlled trial. RESULTS: The vague priors used for the feasibility parameters are demonstrated to be considerably robust. Beta distribution posteriors for the feasibility parameters lead to beta-binomial predictive distributions for an associated randomized controlled trial regarding the number of patients randomized, the number of patients who are compliant and the number of patients who complete follow-up. Ignoring the uncertainty in pilot study results can lead to inadequate power for an associated randomized controlled trial. CONCLUSION: Applying Bayesian methods to pilot studies' results provides direct inference about the feasibility parameters and quantifies the uncertainty regarding the feasibility of an associated randomized controlled trial in an intuitive and meaningful way. Furthermore, Bayesian methods can identify recruitment strategies that yield the desired power for an associated randomized controlled trial.

Effect of Nebulized Magnesium vs Placebo Added to Albuterol on Hospitalization Among Children With Refractory Acute Asthma Treated in the Emergency Department: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: While intravenous magnesium decreases hospitalizations in refractory pediatric acute asthma, it is variably used because of invasiveness and safety concerns. The benefit of nebulized magnesium to prevent hospitalization is unknown. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of nebulized magnesium in children with acute asthma remaining in moderate or severe respiratory distress after initial therapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized double-blind parallel-group clinical trial from September 26, 2011, to November 19, 2019, in 7 tertiary-care pediatric emergency departments in Canada. The participants were otherwise healthy children aged 2 to 17 years with moderate to severe asthma defined by a Pediatric Respiratory Assessment Measure (PRAM) score of 5 or greater (on a 12-point scale) after a 1-hour treatment with an oral corticosteroid and 3 inhaled albuterol and ipratropium treatments. Of 5846 screened patients, 4332 were excluded for criteria, 273 declined participation, 423 otherwise excluded, 818 randomized, and 816 analyzed. Interventions: Participants were randomized to 3 nebulized albuterol treatments with either magnesium sulfate (n = 410) or 5.5% saline placebo (n = 408). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was hospitalization for asthma within 24 hours. Secondary outcomes included PRAM score; respiratory rate; oxygen saturation at 60, 120, 180, and 240 minutes; blood pressure at 20, 40, 60, 120, 180, and 240 minutes; and albuterol treatments within 240 minutes. Results: Among 818 randomized patients (median age, 5 years; 63% males), 816 completed the trial (409 received magnesium; 407, placebo). A total of 178 of the 409 children who received magnesium (43.5%) were hospitalized vs 194 of the 407 who received placebo (47.7%) (difference, -4.2%; absolute risk difference 95% [exact] CI, -11% to 2.8%]; P = .26). There were no significant between-group differences in changes from baseline to 240 minutes in PRAM score (difference of changes, 0.14 points [95% CI, -0.23 to 0.50]; P = .46); respiratory rate (0.17 breaths/min [95% CI, -1.32 to 1.67]; P = .82); oxygen saturation (-0.04% [95% CI, -0.53% to 0.46%]; P = .88); systolic blood pressure (0.78 mm Hg [95% CI, -1.48 to 3.03]; P = .50); or mean number of additional albuterol treatments (magnesium: 1.49, placebo: 1.59; risk ratio, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.79 to 1.11]; P = .47). Nausea/vomiting or sore throat/nose occurred in 17 of the 409 children who received magnesium (4%) and 5 of the 407 who received placebo (1%). Conclusions and Relevance: Among children with refractory acute asthma in the emergency department, nebulized magnesium with albuterol, compared with placebo with albuterol, did not significantly decrease the hospitalization rate for asthma within 24 hours. The findings do not support use of nebulized magnesium with albuterol among children with refractory acute asthma. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01429415.

Oral Ondansetron Administration to Nondehydrated Children With Diarrhea and Associated Vomiting in Emergency Departments in Pakistan: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We determine whether single-dose oral ondansetron administration to children with vomiting as a result of acute gastroenteritis without dehydration reduces administration of intravenous fluid rehydration. METHODS: In this 2-hospital, double-blind, placebo-controlled, emergency department-based, randomized trial conducted in Karachi Pakistan, we recruited children aged 0.5 to 5.0 years, without dehydration, who had diarrhea and greater than or equal to 1 episode of vomiting within 4 hours of arrival. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1), through an Internet-based randomization service using a stratified variable-block randomization scheme, to single-dose oral ondansetron or placebo. The primary endpoint was intravenous rehydration (administration of ≥20 mL/kg of an isotonic fluid during 4 hours) within 72 hours of randomization. RESULTS: Participant median age was 15 months (interquartile range 10 to 26) and 59.4% (372/626) were male patients. Intravenous rehydration use was 12.1% (38/314) and 11.9% (37/312) in the placebo and ondansetron groups, respectively (odds ratio 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60 to 1.61; difference 0.2%; 95% CI of the difference -4.9% to 5.4%). Bolus fluid administration occurred within 72 hours of randomization in 10.8% (34/314) and 10.3% (27/312) of children administered placebo and ondansetron, respectively (odds ratio 0.95; 95% CI 0.56 to 1.59). A multivariable regression model fitted with treatment group and adjusted for antiemetic administration, antibiotics, zinc prerandomization, and vomiting frequency prerandomization yielded similar results (odds ratio 0.91; 95% CI 0.55 to 1.53). There was no interaction between treatment group and age, greater than or equal to 3 stools in the preceding 24 hours, or greater than or equal to 3 vomiting episodes in the preceding 24 hours. CONCLUSION: Oral administration of a single dose of ondansetron did not result in a reduction in intravenous rehydration use. In children without dehydration, ondansetron does not improve clinical outcomes.

Planned cesarean or vaginal delivery for women in spontaneous labor with a twin pregnancy: A secondary analysis of the Twin Birth Study.

BACKGROUND: The Twin Birth Study, a multicenter randomized controlled trial, found no differences in neonatal outcomes in women with twins randomized to planned cesarean or vaginal delivery. Nevertheless, women who present in spontaneous labor might expect a better outcome following a trial of vaginal delivery than undergoing cesarean delivery. In this secondary analysis, we aimed to compare neonatal outcomes of women who presented in spontaneous labor in the two arms of the Twin Birth Study. METHODS: Women in whom the first twin was in the cephalic presentation were randomized between 32 + 0 and 38 + 6 weeks to planned vaginal delivery or cesarean. The primary outcome was a composite of fetal or neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity. RESULTS: Of the 2804 women included in the Twin Birth Study, 823 women in the planned vaginal delivery arm and 612 in the planned cesarean arm presented in spontaneous labor. Although the odds ratio favored planned vaginal delivery, there was no statistically significant difference in the rate of primary outcome between the vaginal delivery and cesarean arms (1.8% vs 2.7%, respectively; P = 0.16; OR 1.49; 95% CI, 0.87-2.55). Similarly, the rates of the individual components of the primary outcome and of maternal adverse outcome were similar between the two arms. CONCLUSION: In women with twins who present in spontaneous labor between 32 + 0 and 38 + 6 weeks' gestation, where the first twin is cephalic, a policy of planned vaginal delivery or cesarean is not associated with significant differences in neonatal or maternal outcomes.

Effect of a Pediatric Early Warning System on All-Cause Mortality in Hospitalized Pediatric Patients: The EPOCH Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: There is limited evidence that the use of severity of illness scores in pediatric patients can facilitate timely admission to the intensive care unit or improve patient outcomes. Objective: To determine the effect of the Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System (BedsidePEWS) on all-cause hospital mortality and late admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), cardiac arrest, and ICU resource use. Design, Setting, and Participants: A multicenter cluster randomized trial of 21 hospitals located in 7 countries (Belgium, Canada, England, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, and the Netherlands) that provided inpatient pediatric care for infants (gestational age ≥37 weeks) to teenagers (aged ≤18 years). Participating hospitals had continuous physician staffing and subspecialized pediatric services. Patient enrollment began on February 28, 2011, and ended on June 21, 2015. Follow-up ended on July 19, 2015. Interventions: The BedsidePEWS intervention (10 hospitals) was compared with usual care (no severity of illness score; 11 hospitals). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause hospital mortality. The secondary outcome was a significant clinical deterioration event, which was defined as a composite outcome reflecting late ICU admission. Regression analyses accounted for hospital-level clustering and baseline rates. Results: Among 144 539 patient discharges at 21 randomized hospitals, there were 559 443 patient-days and 144 539 patients (100%) completed the trial. All-cause hospital mortality was 1.93 per 1000 patient discharges at hospitals with BedsidePEWS and 1.56 per 1000 patient discharges at hospitals with usual care (adjusted between-group rate difference, 0.01 [95% CI, -0.80 to 0.81 per 1000 patient discharges]; adjusted odds ratio, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.61 to 1.69]; P = .96). Significant clinical deterioration events occurred during 0.50 per 1000 patient-days at hospitals with BedsidePEWS vs 0.84 per 1000 patient-days at hospitals with usual care (adjusted between-group rate difference, -0.34 [95% CI, -0.73 to 0.05 per 1000 patient-days]; adjusted rate ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.61 to 0.97]; P = .03). Conclusions and Relevance: Implementation of the Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System compared with usual care did not significantly decrease all-cause mortality among hospitalized pediatric patients. These findings do not support the use of this system to reduce mortality. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01260831.

The effect of induction method in twin pregnancies: a secondary analysis for the twin birth study.

BACKGROUND: This secondary analysis for the Twin Birth Study, an international, multicenter trial, aimed to compare the cesarean section rates and safety between methods of induction of labor in twin pregnancies. METHODS: Women with twin pregnancies where the first twin was in a cephalic presentation and who presented for labor induction, were non-randomly assigned to receive prostaglandin or amniotomy and/or oxytocin. Main outcome measures were the rates of unplanned cesarean section and neonatal and maternal mortality or serious morbidity. RESULTS: 153 (41.5%) were induced by prostaglandin (prostaglandin group) and 215 (58.5%) were induced by amniotomy and/or oxytocin alone (no prostaglandin group). Induction using prostaglandin was more common in countries with a low perinatal mortality rate <10/1000 (45.7 versus 32.5%, p = 0.02). Cesarean section rates were similar in the two groups: 62/153 (40.5%) in the prostaglandin group and 87/215 (40.5%) in the no prostaglandin group (odds ratio 1, 95% CI 0.65-1.5). Nulliparity, late maternal age, non-cephalic presentation of twin B and high country's perinatal mortality rate were found to be independently associated with the induction to end with an unplanned cesarean section. There were no significant differences between groups with respect to maternal or neonatal adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The need for cervical ripening by prostaglandin had no effect on the incidence of cesarean delivery or an abnormal outcome. There is a significant risk of unplanned cesarean section independent of chosen induction method. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered at the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Register (identifier ISRCTN74420086 ; December 9, 2003) and retrospectively registered at the www.clinicaltrials.gov (identifier NCT 00187369 ; September 12, 2005).

A randomized trial of planned cesarean or vaginal delivery for twin pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Twin birth is associated with a higher risk of adverse perinatal outcomes than singleton birth. It is unclear whether planned cesarean section results in a lower risk of adverse outcomes than planned vaginal delivery in twin pregnancy. METHODS: We randomly assigned women between 32 weeks 0 days and 38 weeks 6 days of gestation with twin pregnancy and with the first twin in the cephalic presentation to planned cesarean section or planned vaginal delivery with cesarean only if indicated. Elective delivery was planned between 37 weeks 5 days and 38 weeks 6 days of gestation. The primary outcome was a composite of fetal or neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity, with the fetus or infant as the unit of analysis for the statistical comparison. RESULTS: A total of 1398 women (2795 fetuses) were randomly assigned to planned cesarean delivery and 1406 women (2812 fetuses) to planned vaginal delivery. The rate of cesarean delivery was 90.7% in the planned-cesarean-delivery group and 43.8% in the planned-vaginal-delivery group. Women in the planned-cesarean-delivery group delivered earlier than did those in the planned-vaginal-delivery group (mean number of days from randomization to delivery, 12.4 vs. 13.3; P=0.04). There was no significant difference in the composite primary outcome between the planned-cesarean-delivery group and the planned-vaginal-delivery group (2.2% and 1.9%, respectively; odds ratio with planned cesarean delivery, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 1.74; P=0.49). CONCLUSIONS: In twin pregnancy between 32 weeks 0 days and 38 weeks 6 days of gestation, with the first twin in the cephalic presentation, planned cesarean delivery did not significantly decrease or increase the risk of fetal or neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity, as compared with planned vaginal delivery. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00187369; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN74420086.).

Twin Birth Study: 2-year neurodevelopmental follow-up of the randomized trial of planned cesarean or planned vaginal delivery for twin pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: The Twin Birth Study randomized women with uncomplicated pregnancies, between 32(0/7)-38(6/7) weeks' gestation where the first twin was in cephalic presentation, to a policy of either a planned cesarean or planned vaginal delivery. The primary analysis showed that planned cesarean delivery did not increase or decrease the risk of fetal/neonatal death or serious neonatal morbidity as compared with planned vaginal delivery. OBJECTIVE: This study presents the secondary outcome of death or neurodevelopmental delay at 2 years of age. STUDY DESIGN: A total of 4603 children from the initial cohort of 5565 fetuses/infants (83%) contributed to the outcome of death or neurodevelopmental delay. Surviving children were screened using the Ages and Stages Questionnaire with abnormal scores validated by a clinical neurodevelopmental assessment. The effect of planned cesarean vs planned vaginal delivery on death or neurodevelopmental delay was quantified using a logistic model to control for stratification variables and using generalized estimating equations to account for the nonindependence of twin births. RESULTS: Baseline maternal, pregnancy, and infant characteristics were similar. Mean age at assessment was 26 months. There was no significant difference in the outcome of death or neurodevelopmental delay: 5.99% in the planned cesarean vs 5.83% in the planned vaginal delivery group (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.41; P = .79). CONCLUSION: A policy of planned cesarean delivery provides no benefit to children at 2 years of age compared with a policy of planned vaginal delivery in uncomplicated twin pregnancies between 32(0/7)-38(6/7)weeks' gestation where the first twin is in cephalic presentation.

Effect of Dilute Apple Juice and Preferred Fluids vs Electrolyte Maintenance Solution on Treatment Failure Among Children With Mild Gastroenteritis: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Gastroenteritis is a common pediatric illness. Electrolyte maintenance solution is recommended to treat and prevent dehydration. Its advantage in minimally dehydrated children is unproven. OBJECTIVE: To determine if oral hydration with dilute apple juice/preferred fluids is noninferior to electrolyte maintenance solution in children with mild gastroenteritis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized, single-blind noninferiority trial conducted between the months of October and April during the years 2010 to 2015 in a tertiary care pediatric emergency department in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Study participants were children aged 6 to 60 months with gastroenteritis and minimal dehydration. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly assigned to receive color-matched half-strength apple juice/preferred fluids (n=323) or apple-flavored electrolyte maintenance solution (n=324). Oral rehydration therapy followed institutional protocols. After discharge, the half-strength apple juice/preferred fluids group was administered fluids as desired; the electrolyte maintenance solution group replaced losses with electrolyte maintenance solution. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was a composite of treatment failure defined by any of the following occurring within 7 days of enrollment: intravenous rehydration, hospitalization, subsequent unscheduled physician encounter, protracted symptoms, crossover, and 3% or more weight loss or significant dehydration at in-person follow-up. Secondary outcomes included intravenous rehydration, hospitalization, and frequency of diarrhea and vomiting. The noninferiority margin was defined as a difference between groups of 7.5% for the primary outcome and was assessed with a 1-sided α=.025. If noninferiority was established, a 1-sided test for superiority was conducted. RESULTS: Among 647 randomized children (mean age, 28.3 months; 331 boys [51.1%]; 441 (68.2%) without evidence of dehydration), 644 (99.5%) completed follow-up. Children who were administered dilute apple juice experienced treatment failure less often than those given electrolyte maintenance solution (16.7% vs 25.0%; difference, -8.3%; 97.5% CI, -∞ to -2.0%; P < .001 for inferiority and P = .006 for superiority). Fewer children administered apple juice/preferred fluids received intravenous rehydration (2.5% vs 9.0%; difference, -6.5%; 99% CI, -11.6% to -1.8%). Hospitalization rates and diarrhea and vomiting frequency were not significantly different between groups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among children with mild gastroenteritis and minimal dehydration, initial oral hydration with dilute apple juice followed by their preferred fluids, compared with electrolyte maintenance solution, resulted in fewer treatment failures. In many high-income countries, the use of dilute apple juice and preferred fluids as desired may be an appropriate alternative to electrolyte maintenance fluids in children with mild gastroenteritis and minimal dehydration. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01185054.

Patient safety, resident well-being and continuity of care with different resident duty schedules in the intensive care unit: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Shorter resident duty periods are increasingly mandated to improve patient safety and physician well-being. However, increases in continuity-related errors may counteract the purported benefits of reducing fatigue. We evaluated the effects of 3 resident schedules in the intensive care unit (ICU) on patient safety, resident well-being and continuity of care. METHODS: Residents in 2 university-affiliated ICUs were randomly assigned (in 2-month rotation-blocks from January to June 2009) to in-house overnight schedules of 24, 16 or 12 hours. The primary patient outcome was adverse events. The primary resident outcome was sleepiness, measured by the 7-point Stanford Sleepiness Scale. Secondary outcomes were patient deaths, preventable adverse events, and residents' physical symptoms and burnout. Continuity of care and perceptions of ICU staff were also assessed. RESULTS: We evaluated 47 (96%) of 49 residents, all 971 admissions, 5894 patient-days and 452 staff surveys. We found no effect of schedule (24-, 16- or 12-h shifts) on adverse events (81.3, 76.3 and 78.2 events per 1000 patient-days, respectively; p = 0.7) or on residents' sleepiness in the daytime (mean rating 2.33, 2.61 and 2.30, respectively; p = 0.3) or at night (mean rating 3.06, 2.73 and 2.42, respectively; p = 0.2). Seven of 8 preventable adverse events occurred with the 12-hour schedule (p = 0.1). Mortality rates were similar for the 3 schedules. Residents' somatic symptoms were more severe and more frequent with the 24-hour schedule (p = 0.04); however, burnout was similar across the groups. ICU staff rated residents' knowledge and decision-making worst with the 16-hour schedule. INTERPRETATION: Our findings do not support the purported advantages of shorter duty schedules. They also highlight the trade-offs between residents' symptoms and multiple secondary measures of patient safety. Further delineation of this emerging signal is required before widespread system change. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT00679809.

Using value-of-information methods when the disease is rare and the treatment is expensive--the example of hemophilia A.

BACKGROUND: Hemophilia A is a rare, sex-linked genetic disorder treated with intravenous administration of factor VIII (FVIII) to prevent bleeding; however, approaches vary across and within countries. Value-of-information (VOI) methods identify situations in which the cost-benefit evidence is sufficient to adopt one treatment strategy over another; when the evidence is insufficient, VOI methods provide the optimal sample size for additional research. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to use VOI methods in a cost-benefit decision context to evaluate the current evidence in support of using (1) alternate day prophylaxis (AP), (2) tailored prophylaxis (TP) or (3) on-demand treatment (OD) with FVIII to prevent arthropathy in children with severe hemophilia A. METHODS: To apply VOI methods, several parameters such as incidence, time horizon for the decision, costs, and threshold values to avoid MRI-detected joint damage or arthropathy were defined. Two baseline threshold values of willingness to pay for avoiding arthropathy--$200,000 and $400,000--were selected for comparing the treatment strategies. RESULTS: For threshold values < $200,000, OD had a higher expected net benefit than either prophylaxis strategy, and the evidence was sufficient for its adoption. For threshold values > $400,000 prophylaxis strategies had higher expected net benefit; however, a new trial with 38 patients per arm was needed to compare AP and TP, yielding an expected net gain of over $17 million. In sensitivity analyses, the results were robust to assumptions regarding discount rate, trial fixed and variable costs, enrollment fraction, and the time horizon. CONCLUSIONS: In rare diseases, evidence is often scarce and insufficient for decision making. In considering the funding of new research and patient reimbursement in rare diseases, VOI methodology may provide more relevant determinations of the value and costs of additional research, compared to standard frequentist methods.

Value of information methods for assessing a new diagnostic test.

Value-of-information methods are applied to assess the evidence in support of a new diagnostic test and, where the evidence is insufficient for decision making, to determine the optimal sample size for future studies. Net benefit formulations are derived under various diagnostic and treatment scenarios. The expressions for the expected opportunity loss of adopting strategies that include the new test are given. Expressions for the expected value of information from future studies are derived. One-sample and two-sample designs, with or without known prevalence, are considered. An example is given.

The impact of pedestrian countdown signals on pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions: a reanalysis of data from a quasi-experimental study.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a more sophisticated analysis of previously published data that advances the understanding of the efficacy of pedestrian countdown signal (PCS) installation on pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions (PMVCs), in the city of Toronto, Canada. METHODS: This is an updated analysis of the same dataset from Camden et al. A quasi-experimental design was used to evaluate the effect of PCS on PMVC. A Poisson regression analysis, using a one-group comparison of PMVC, pre-PCS installation to post-PCS installation was used, controlling for season and temporal effects. The outcome was the frequency of reported PMVC (January 2000-December 2009). Similar models were used to analyse specific types of collisions defined by age of pedestrian, injury severity, and pedestrian and vehicle action. Incidence rate ratios with 95% CI are presented. RESULTS: This analysis included 9262 PMVC, 2760 during or after PCS installation, at 1965 intersections. There was a 26% increase in the rate of collisions, pre to post-PCS installation (incidence rate ratio=1.26, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.42). CONCLUSIONS: The installation of PCS at 1965 signalised intersections in the city of Toronto resulted in an increase in PMVC rates post-PCS installation. PCSs may have an unintended consequence of increasing pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions in some settings.

Effect of oximetry on hospitalization in bronchiolitis: a randomized clinical trial.

IMPORTANCE: Routine use of pulse oximetry has been associated with changes in bronchiolitis management and may have lowered the hospitalization threshold for patients with bronchiolitis. OBJECTIVE: To examine if infants with bronchiolitis whose displayed oximetry measurements have been artificially elevated 3 percentage points above true values experience hospitalization rates at least 15% lower compared with infants with true values displayed. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized, double-blind, parallel-group trial conducted from 2008 to 2013 in a tertiary-care pediatric emergency department in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Participants were 213 otherwise healthy infants aged 4 weeks to 12 months with mild to moderate bronchiolitis and true oxygen saturations of 88% or higher. INTERVENTIONS: Pulse oximetry measurements with true saturation values displayed or with altered saturation values displayed that have been increased 3 percentage points above true values. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was hospitalization within 72 hours, defined as inpatient admission within this interval or active hospital care for greater than 6 hours. Secondary outcomes included the use of supplemental oxygen in the emergency department, level of physician agreement with discharge from the emergency department, length of emergency department stay, and unscheduled visits for bronchiolitis within 72 hours. RESULTS: Forty-four of 108 patients (41%) in the true oximetry group and 26 of 105 (25%) in the altered oximetry group were hospitalized within 72 hours (difference, 16% [95% CI for the difference, 3.6% to 28.4%]; P = .005). Using the emergency department physician as a random effect, the primary treatment effect remained significant (adjusted odds ratio, 4.0 [95% CI, 1.6 to 10.5]; P = .009). None of the secondary outcomes were significantly different between the groups. There were 23 of 108 (21.3%) subsequent unscheduled medical visits for bronchiolitis in the true oximetry group and 15 of 105 (14.3%) in the altered oximetry group (difference, 7% [95% CI, -0.3% to 0.2%]; P = .18). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among infants presenting to an emergency department with mild to moderate bronchiolitis, those with an artificially elevated pulse oximetry reading were less likely to be hospitalized within 72 hours or to receive active hospital care for more than 6 hours than those with unaltered oximetry readings. This suggests that oxygen saturation should not be the only factor in the decision to admit, and its use may need to be reevaluated. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00673946.

Determining optimal sample sizes for multistage adaptive randomized clinical trials from an industry perspective using value of information methods.

BACKGROUND: Most often, sample size determinations for randomized clinical trials are based on frequentist approaches that depend on somewhat arbitrarily chosen factors, such as type I and II error probabilities and the smallest clinically important difference. As an alternative, many authors have proposed decision-theoretic (full Bayesian) approaches, often referred to as value of information methods that attempt to determine the sample size that maximizes the difference between the trial's expected utility and its expected cost, referred to as the expected net gain. Taking an industry perspective, Willan proposes a solution in which the trial's utility is the increase in expected profit. Furthermore, Willan and Kowgier, taking a societal perspective, show that multistage designs can increase expected net gain. PURPOSE: The purpose of this article is to determine the optimal sample size using value of information methods for industry-based, multistage adaptive randomized clinical trials, and to demonstrate the increase in expected net gain realized. At the end of each stage, the trial's sponsor must decide between three actions: continue to the next stage, stop the trial and seek regulatory approval, or stop the trial and abandon the drug. METHODS: A model for expected total profit is proposed that includes consideration of per-patient profit, disease incidence, time horizon, trial duration, market share, and the relationship between trial results and probability of regulatory approval. The proposed method is extended to include multistage designs with a solution provided for a two-stage design. An example is given. RESULTS: Significant increases in the expected net gain are realized by using multistage designs. LIMITATIONS: The complexity of the solutions increases with the number of stages, although far simpler near-optimal solutions exist. The method relies on the central limit theorem, assuming that the sample size is sufficiently large so that the relevant statistics are normally distributed. CONCLUSION: From a value of information perspective, the use of multistage designs in industry trials leads to significant gains in the expected net gain.

Effectiveness of Structured Care Coordination for Children With Medical Complexity: The Complex Care for Kids Ontario (CCKO) Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Children with medical complexity (CMC) have chronic conditions and high health needs and may experience fragmented care. Objective: To compare the effectiveness of a structured complex care program, Complex Care for Kids Ontario (CCKO), with usual care. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized clinical trial used a waitlist variation for randomizing patients from 12 complex care clinics in Ontario, Canada, over 2 years. The study was conducted from December 2016 to June 2021. Participants were identified based on complex care clinic referral and randomly allocated into an intervention group, seen at the next available clinic appointment, or a control group that was placed on a waitlist to receive the intervention after 12 months. Intervention: Assignment of a nurse practitioner-pediatrician dyad partnering with families in a structured complex care clinic to provide intensive care coordination and comprehensive plans of care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Co-primary outcomes, assessed at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization, were service delivery indicators from the Family Experiences With Coordination of Care that scored (1) coordination of care among health care professionals, (2) coordination of care between health care professionals and families, and (3) utility of care planning tools. Secondary outcomes included child and parent health outcomes and child health care system utilization and cost. Results: Of 144 participants randomized, 141 had complete health administrative data, and 139 had complete baseline surveys. The median (IQR) age of the participants was 29 months (9-102); 83 (60%) were male. At 12 months, scores for utility of care planning tools improved in the intervention group compared with the waitlist group (adjusted odds ratio, 9.3; 95% CI, 3.9-21.9; P < .001), with no difference between groups for the other 2 co-primary outcomes. There were no group differences for secondary outcomes of child outcomes, parent outcomes, and health care system utilization and cost. At 24 months, when both groups were receiving the intervention, no primary outcome differences were observed. Total health care costs in the second year were lower for the intervention group (median, CAD$17 891; IQR, 6098-61 346; vs CAD$37 524; IQR, 9338-119 547 [US $13 415; IQR, 4572-45 998; vs US $28 136; IQR, 7002-89 637]; P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance: The CCKO program improved the perceived utility of care planning tools but not other outcomes at 1 year. Extended evaluation periods may be helpful in assessing pediatric complex care interventions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02928757.

Bias-corrected estimator for intraclass correlation coefficient in the balanced one-way random effects model.

BACKGROUND: Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) are used in a wide range of applications. However, most commonly used estimators for the ICC are known to be subject to bias. METHODS: Using second order Taylor series expansion, we propose a new bias-corrected estimator for one type of intraclass correlation coefficient, for the ICC that arises in the context of the balanced one-way random effects model. A simulation study is performed to assess the performance of the proposed estimator. Data have been generated under normal as well as non-normal scenarios. RESULTS: Our simulation results show that the new estimator has reduced bias compared to the least square estimator which is often referred to as the conventional or analytical estimator. The results also show marked bias reduction both in normal and non-normal data scenarios. In particular, our estimator outperforms the analytical estimator in a non-normal setting producing estimates that are very close to the true ICC values. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed bias-corrected estimator for the ICC from a one-way random effects analysis of variance model appears to perform well in the scenarios we considered in this paper and can be used as a motivation to construct bias-corrected estimators for other types of ICCs that arise in more complex scenarios. It would also be interesting to investigate the bias-variance trade-off.