Aerosolization of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacilli by tuberculosis clinic attendees independent of sputum-Xpert Ultra status.

Potential Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission during different pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease states is poorly understood. We quantified viable aerosolized Mtb from TB clinic attendees following diagnosis and through six months' follow-up thereafter. Presumptive TB patients (n=102) were classified by laboratory, radiological, and clinical features into Group A: Sputum-Xpert Ultra-positive TB (n=52), Group B: Sputum-Xpert Ultra-negative TB (n=20), or Group C: TB undiagnosed (n=30). All groups were assessed for Mtb bioaerosol release at baseline, and subsequently at 2 wk, 2 mo, and 6 mo. Groups A and B were notified to the national TB program and received standard anti-TB chemotherapy; Mtb was isolated from 92% and 90% at presentation, 87% and 74% at 2 wk, 54% and 44% at 2 mo and 32% and 20% at 6 mo, respectively. Surprisingly, similar numbers were detected in Group C not initiating TB treatment: 93%, 70%, 48% and 22% at the same timepoints. A temporal association was observed between Mtb bioaerosol release and TB symptoms in all three groups. Persistence of Mtb bioaerosol positivity was observed in ~30% of participants irrespective of TB chemotherapy. Captured Mtb bacilli were predominantly acid-fast stain-negative and poorly culturable; however, three bioaerosol samples yielded sufficient biomass following culture for whole-genome sequencing, revealing two different Mtb lineages. Detection of viable aerosolized Mtb in clinic attendees, independent of TB diagnosis, suggests that unidentified Mtb transmitters might contribute a significant attributable proportion of community exposure. Additional longitudinal studies with sputum culture-positive and -negative control participants are required to investigate this possibility.

Correcting mortality estimates among children and youth on antiretroviral therapy in southern Africa: A comparative analysis between a multi-country tracing study and linkage to a health information exchange.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow-up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. METHODS: We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV. RESULTS: We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained-other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained-WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow-up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self-transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non-informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasise that lost to follow-up is non-ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow-up, whereas linkage did not identify out-of-facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow-up were self-transfers.

A prospective randomised controlled trial investigating household SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a densely populated community in Cape Town, South Africa - the transmission of COVID-19 in crowded environments (TRACE) study.

BACKGROUND: South Africa's first SARS-CoV-2 case was identified 5th March 2020 and national lockdown followed March 26th. Households are an important location for secondary SARS-CoV-2 infection. Physical distancing and sanitation - infection mitigation recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) at the time - are difficult to implement in limited-resource settings because of overcrowded living conditions. METHODS: This study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05119348) was conducted from August 2020 to September 2021 in two densely populated, low socioeconomic Cape Town community sub-districts. New COVID-19 index cases (ICs) identified at public clinics were randomised to an infection mitigation intervention (STOPCOV) delivered by lay community health workers (CHWs) or standard of care group. STOPCOV mitigation measures included one initial household assessment conducted by a CHW in which face masks, sanitiser, bleach and written information on managing and preventing spread were provided. This was followed by regular telephonic follow-up from CHWs. SARS-CoV-2 PCR and IgM/IgG serology was performed at baseline, weeks 1, 2, 3 and 4 of follow-up. RESULTS: The study randomised 81 ICs with 245 HHCs. At baseline, no HHCs in the control and 7 (5%) in the intervention group had prevalent SARS-CoV-2. The secondary infection rate (SIR) based on SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing was 1.9% (n = 2) in control and 2.9% (n = 4) in intervention HHCs (p = 0.598). At baseline, SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were present in 15% (16/108) of control and 38% (52/137) of intervention participants. At study end incidence was 8.3% (9/108) and 8.03% (11/137) in the intervention and control groups respectively. Antibodies were present in 23% (25/108) of control HHCs over the course of the study vs. 46% (63/137) in the intervention arm. CHWs made twelve clinic and 47 food parcel referrals for individuals in intervention households in need. DISCUSSION: Participants had significant exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infections prior to the study. In this setting, household transmission mitigation was ineffective. However, CHWs may have facilitated other important healthcare and social referrals.

Capture and visualization of live Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacilli from tuberculosis patient bioaerosols.

Interrupting transmission is an attractive anti-tuberculosis (TB) strategy but it remains underexplored owing to our poor understanding of the events surrounding transfer of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) between hosts. Determining when live, infectious Mtb bacilli are released and by whom has proven especially challenging. Consequently, transmission chains are inferred only retrospectively, when new cases are diagnosed. This process, which relies on molecular analyses of Mtb isolates for epidemiological fingerprinting, is confounded by the prolonged infectious period of TB and the potential for transmission from transient exposures. We developed a Respiratory Aerosol Sampling Chamber (RASC) equipped with high-efficiency filtration and sampling technologies for liquid-capture of all particulate matter (including Mtb) released during respiration and non-induced cough. Combining the mycobacterial cell wall probe, DMN-trehalose, with fluorescence microscopy of RASC-captured bioaerosols, we detected and quantified putative live Mtb bacilli in bioaerosol samples arrayed in nanowell devices. The RASC enabled non-invasive capture and isolation of viable Mtb from bioaerosol within 24 hours of collection. A median 14 live Mtb bacilli (range 0-36) were isolated in single-cell format from 90% of confirmed TB patients following 60 minutes bioaerosol sampling. This represented a significant increase over previous estimates of transmission potential, implying that many more organisms might be released daily than commonly assumed. Moreover, variations in DMN-trehalose incorporation profiles suggested metabolic heterogeneity in aerosolized Mtb. Finally, preliminary analyses indicated the capacity for serial image capture and analysis of nanowell-arrayed bacilli for periods extending into weeks. These observations support the application of this technology to longstanding questions in TB transmission including the propensity for asymptomatic transmission, the impact of TB treatment on Mtb bioaerosol release, and the physiological state of aerosolized bacilli.

Aerosolization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis by Tidal Breathing.

Rationale: Interrupting tuberculosis (TB) transmission requires an improved understanding of how and when the causative organism, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is aerosolized. Although cough is commonly assumed to be the dominant source of Mtb aerosols, recent evidence of cough-independent Mtb release implies the contribution of alternative mechanisms. Objectives: To compare the aerosolization of Mtb bacilli and total particulate matter from patients with TB during three separate respiratory maneuvers: tidal breathing (TiBr), FVC, and cough. Methods: Bioaerosol sampling and Mtb enumeration by live-cell, fluorescence microscopy were combined with real-time measurement of CO2 concentration and total particle counts from 38 patients with GeneXpert-positive TB before treatment initiation. Measurements and Main Results: For all maneuvers, the proportions of particles detected across five size categories were similar, with most particles falling between 0.5-5 µm. Although total particle counts were 4.8-fold greater in cough samples than either TiBr or FVC, all three maneuvers returned similar rates of positivity for Mtb. No correlation was observed between total particle production and Mtb count. Instead, for total Mtb counts, the variability between individuals was greater than the variability between sampling maneuvers. Finally, when modelled using 24-hour breath and cough frequencies, our data indicate that TiBr might contribute more than 90% of the daily aerosolized Mtb among symptomatic patients with TB. Conclusions: Assuming the number of viable Mtb organisms released offers a reliable proxy of patient infectiousness, our observations imply that TiBr and interindividual variability in Mtb release might be significant contributors to TB transmission among active cases.

Molecular Detection of Airborne Mycobacterium tuberculosis in South African High Schools.

Rationale: South African adolescents carry a high tuberculosis disease burden. It is not known if schools are high-risk settings for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) transmission. Objectives: To detect airborne MTB genomic DNA in classrooms. Methods: We studied 72 classrooms occupied by 2,262 students in two South African schools. High-volume air filtration was performed for median 40 (interquartile range [IQR], 35-54) minutes and assayed by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR)-targeting MTB region of difference 9 (RD9), with concurrent CO2 concentration measurement. Classroom data were benchmarked against public health clinics. Students who consented to individual tuberculosis screening completed a questionnaire and sputum collection (Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra) if symptom positive. Poisson statistics were used for MTB RD9 copy quantification. Measurements and Main Results: ddPCR assays were positive in 13/72 (18.1%) classrooms and 4/39 (10.3%) clinic measurements (P = 0.276). Median ambient CO2 concentration was 886 (IQR, 747-1223) ppm in classrooms versus 490 (IQR, 405-587) ppm in clinics (P < 0.001). Average airborne concentration of MTB RD9 was 3.61 copies per 180,000 liters in classrooms versus 1.74 copies per 180,000 liters in clinics (P = 0.280). Across all classrooms, the average risk of an occupant inhaling one MTB RD9 copy was estimated as 0.71% during one standard lesson of 35 minutes. Among 1,836/2,262 (81.2%) students who consented to screening, 21/90 (23.3%) symptomatic students produced a sputum sample, of which one was Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra positive. Conclusions: Airborne MTB genomic DNA was detected frequently in high school classrooms. Instantaneous risk of classroom exposure was similar to the risk in public health clinics.

Estimating Tuberculosis Transmission Risks in a Primary Care Clinic in South Africa: Modeling of Environmental and Clinical Data.

BACKGROUND: Congregate settings, such as healthcare clinics, may play an essential role in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. Using patient and environmental data, we studied transmission at a primary care clinic in South Africa. METHODS: We collected patient movements, cough frequency, and clinical data, and measured indoor carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, relative humidity, and Mtb genomes in the air. We used negative binomial regression model to investigate associations. RESULTS: We analyzed 978 unique patients who contributed 14 795 data points. The median patient age was 33 (interquartile range [IQR], 26-41) years, and 757 (77.4%) were female. Overall, median CO2 levels were 564 (IQR 495-646) parts per million and were highest in the morning. Median number of coughs per day was 466 (IQR, 368-503), and overall median Mtb DNA copies/µL/day was 4.2 (IQR, 1.2-9.5). We found an increased presence of Mtb DNA in the air of 32% (95% credible interval, 7%-63%) per 100 additional young adults (aged 15-29 years) and 1% (0-2%) more Mtb DNA per 10% increase of relative humidity. Estimated cumulative transmission risks for patients attending the clinic monthly for at least 1 hour range between 9% and 29%. CONCLUSIONS: We identified young adults and relative humidity as potentially important factors for transmission risks in healthcare clinics. Our approach should be used to detect transmission and evaluate infection control interventions.

Antiretroviral Initiation at ≥800 CD4+ Cells/mm3 Associated With Lower Human Immunodeficiency Virus Reservoir Size.

BACKGROUND: Identifying factors that determine the frequency of latently infected CD4+ T cells on antiretroviral therapy (ART) may inform strategies for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cure. We investigated the role of CD4+ count at ART initiation for HIV persistence on ART. METHODS: Among participants of the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment Study, we enrolled people with HIV (PWH) who initiated ART with CD4+ T-cell counts of 500-599, 600-799, or ≥ 800 cells/mm3. After 36-44 months on ART, the levels of total HIV-DNA, cell-associated unspliced HIV-RNA (CA-US HIV-RNA), and two-long terminal repeat HIV-DNA in CD4+ T cells were quantified and plasma HIV-RNA was measured by single-copy assay. We measured T-cell expression of Human Leucocyte Antigen-DR Isotype (HLA-DR), programmed death-1, and phosphorylated signal transducer and activator of transcription-5 (pSTAT5). Virological and immunological measures were compared across CD4+ strata. RESULTS: We enrolled 146 PWH, 36 in the 500-599, 60 in the 600-799, and 50 in the ≥ 800 CD4 strata. After 36-44 months of ART, total HIV-DNA, plasma HIV-RNA, and HLA-DR expression were significantly lower in PWH with CD4+ T-cell count ≥ 800 cells/mm3 at ART initiation compared with 600-799 or 500-599 cells/mm3. The median level of HIV-DNA after 36-44 months of ART was lower by 75% in participants initiating ART with ≥ 800 vs 500-599 cells/mm3 (median [interquartile range]: 16.3 [7.0-117.6] vs 68.4 [13.7-213.1] copies/million cells, respectively). Higher pSTAT5 expression significantly correlated with lower levels of HIV-DNA and CA-US HIV-RNA. Virological measures were significantly lower in females. CONCLUSIONS: Initiating ART with a CD4+ count ≥ 800 cells/mm3 compared with 600-799 or 500-599 cells/mm3 was associated with achieving a substantially smaller HIV reservoir on ART.

Improving Estimates of Social Contact Patterns for Airborne Transmission of Respiratory Pathogens.

Data on social contact patterns are widely used to parameterize age-mixing matrices in mathematical models of infectious diseases. Most studies focus on close contacts only (i.e., persons spoken with face-to-face). This focus may be appropriate for studies of droplet and short-range aerosol transmission but neglects casual or shared air contacts, who may be at risk from airborne transmission. Using data from 2 provinces in South Africa, we estimated age mixing patterns relevant for droplet transmission, nonsaturating airborne transmission, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission, an airborne infection where saturation of household contacts occurs. Estimated contact patterns by age did not vary greatly between the infection types, indicating that widespread use of close contact data may not be resulting in major inaccuracies. However, contact in persons >50 years of age was lower when we considered casual contacts, and therefore the contribution of older age groups to airborne transmission may be overestimated.

Health systems and health equity: Advancing the agenda.

Despite a compelling body of evidence and decades of policy recommendations, deep inequities in health persist with historically marginalized groups. Operationalizing strategies to achieve equity in health and health care continues to remain elusive to health systems. We propose several focus areas; attention to semantics and concepts, building knowledge of health inequities, redesigning care and transforming cultures, to advance health equity work by health system nurse leaders and clinical nurses. Health equity frameworks, traditionally applied in population and public health, are also discussed to tackle health equity issues and formulate, implement and evaluate solutions to inequities. Examples illustrate ongoing work in our health system in targeted areas and challenges in advancing health equity work. Future efforts by health system nurse leaders should concentrate on technology for point of care health screening and data acquisition, data-driven decisions, and organizational performance measures to narrow health equity gaps.

High Rates of Recurrent Tuberculosis Disease: A Population-level Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Retreatment tuberculosis (TB) disease is common in high-prevalence settings. The risk of repeated episodes of recurrent TB is unknown. We calculated the rate of recurrent TB per subsequent episode by matching individual treatment episodes over a period of 13 years. METHODS: All recorded TB episodes in Cape Town between 2003 and 2016 were matched by probabilistic linkage of personal identifiers. Among individuals with a first episode notified in Cape Town and who completed their prior treatment successfully we estimated the recurrence rate stratified by subsequent episode and HIV status. We adjusted person-time to background mortality by age, sex, and HIV status. RESULTS: A total of 292 915 TB episodes among 263 848 individuals were included. The rate of recurrent TB was 16.4 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 16.2-16.6), and increased per subsequent episode (8.4-fold increase, from 14.6 to 122.7 per 1000 from episode 2 to 6, respectively). These increases were similar stratified by HIV status. Rates among HIV positives were higher than among HIV negatives for episodes 2 and 3 (2- and 1.5-fold higher, respectively), and the same thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: TB recurrence rates were high and increased per subsequent episode, independent of HIV status. This suggests that HIV infection is insufficient to explain the high burden of recurrence; it is more likely due to a high annual risk of infection combined with an increased risk of infection or progression to disease associated with a previous TB episode. The very high recurrence rates would justify increased TB surveillance of patients with >1 episode.

Cost-effectiveness of a Novel Lipoarabinomannan Test for Tuberculosis in Patients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: A novel urine lipoarabinomannan assay (FujiLAM) has higher sensitivity and higher cost than the first-generation AlereLAM assay. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of FujiLAM for tuberculosis testing among hospitalized people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), irrespective of symptoms. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model to project clinical and economic outcomes of 3 testing strategies: (1) sputum Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), (2) sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (Xpert+AlereLAM), (3) sputum Xpert plus urine FujiLAM (Xpert+FujiLAM). The modeled cohort matched that of a 2-country clinical trial. We applied diagnostic yields from a retrospective study (yields for Xpert/Xpert+AlereLAM/Xpert+FujiLAM among those with CD4 <200 cells/µL: 33%/62%/70%; among those with CD4 ≥200 cells/µL: 33%/35%/47%). Costs of Xpert/AlereLAM/FujiLAM were US$15/3/6 (South Africa) and $25/3/6 (Malawi). Xpert+FujiLAM was considered cost-effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (US$/year-of-life saved) was <$940 (South Africa) and <$750 (Malawi). We varied key parameters in sensitivity analysis and performed a budget impact analysis of implementing FujiLAM countrywide. RESULTS: Compared with Xpert+AlereLAM, Xpert+FujiLAM increased life expectancy by 0.2 years for those tested in South Africa and Malawi. Xpert+FujiLAM was cost-effective in both countries. Xpert+FujiLAM for all patients remained cost-effective compared with sequential testing and CD4-stratified testing strategies. FujiLAM use added 3.5% (South Africa) and 4.7% (Malawi) to 5-year healthcare costs of tested patients, primarily reflecting ongoing HIV treatment costs among survivors. CONCLUSIONS: FujiLAM with Xpert for tuberculosis testing in hospitalized people with HIV is likely to increase life expectancy and be cost-effective at the currently anticipated price in South Africa and Malawi. Additional studies should evaluate FujiLAM in clinical practice settings.

Derivation and external validation of a risk score for predicting HIV-associated tuberculosis to support case finding and preventive therapy scale-up: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Among people living with HIV (PLHIV), more flexible and sensitive tuberculosis (TB) screening tools capable of detecting both symptomatic and subclinical active TB are needed to (1) reduce morbidity and mortality from undiagnosed TB; (2) facilitate scale-up of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) while reducing inappropriate prescription of TPT to PLHIV with subclinical active TB; and (3) allow for differentiated HIV-TB care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult HIV clinic enrollees collected during 2012 to 2015 to develop a parsimonious multivariable prognostic model for active prevalent TB using both logistic regression and random forest machine learning approaches. A clinical score was derived by rescaling final model coefficients. The clinical score was developed using southern Botswana XPRES data and its accuracy validated internally, using northern Botswana data, and externally using 3 diverse cohorts of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and ART-experienced PLHIV enrolled in XPHACTOR, TB Fast Track (TBFT), and Gugulethu studies from South Africa (SA). Predictive accuracy of the clinical score was compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) 4-symptom TB screen. Among 5,418 XPRES enrollees, 2,771 were included in the derivation dataset; 67% were female, median age was 34 years, median CD4 was 240 cells/µL, 189 (7%) had undiagnosed prevalent TB, and characteristics were similar between internal derivation and validation datasets. Among XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, median CD4 was 400, 73, and 167 cells/µL, and prevalence of TB was 5%, 10%, and 18%, respectively. Factors predictive of TB in the derivation dataset and selected for the clinical score included male sex (1 point), ≥1 WHO TB symptom (7 points), smoking history (1 point), temperature >37.5°C (6 points), body mass index (BMI) <18.5kg/m2 (2 points), and severe anemia (hemoglobin <8g/dL) (3 points). Sensitivity using WHO 4-symptom TB screen was 73%, 80%, 94%, and 94% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, but increased to 88%, 87%, 97%, and 97%, when a clinical score of ≥2 was used. Negative predictive value (NPV) also increased 1%, 0.3%, 1.6%, and 1.7% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, when the clinical score of ≥2 replaced WHO 4-symptom TB screen. Categorizing risk scores into low (<2), moderate (2 to 10), and high-risk categories (>10) yielded TB prevalence of 1%, 1%, 2%, and 6% in the lowest risk group and 33%, 22%, 26%, and 32% in the highest risk group for XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively. At clinical score ≥2, the number needed to screen (NNS) ranged from 5.0 in Gugulethu to 11.0 in XPHACTOR. Limitations include that the risk score has not been validated in resource-rich settings and needs further evaluation and validation in contemporary cohorts in Africa and other resource-constrained settings. CONCLUSIONS: The simple and feasible clinical score allowed for prioritization of sensitivity and NPV, which could facilitate reductions in mortality from undiagnosed TB and safer administration of TPT during proposed global scale-up efforts. Differentiation of risk by clinical score cutoff allows flexibility in designing differentiated HIV-TB care to maximize impact of available resources.

2021 update to HIV-TRePS: a highly flexible and accurate system for the prediction of treatment response from incomplete baseline information in different healthcare settings.

OBJECTIVES: With the goal of facilitating the use of HIV-TRePS to optimize therapy in settings with limited healthcare resources, we aimed to develop computational models to predict treatment responses accurately in the absence of commonly used baseline data. METHODS: Twelve sets of random forest models were trained using very large, global datasets to predict either the probability of virological response (classifier models) or the absolute change in viral load in response to a new regimen (absolute models) following virological failure. Two 'standard' models were developed with all baseline variables present and 10 others developed without HIV genotype, time on therapy, CD4 count or any combination of the above. RESULTS: The standard classifier models achieved an AUC of 0.89 in cross-validation and independent testing. Models with missing variables achieved AUC values of 0.78-0.90. The standard absolute models made predictions that correlated significantly with observed changes in viral load with a mean absolute error of 0.65 log10 copies HIV RNA/mL in cross-validation and 0.69 log10 copies HIV RNA/mL in independent testing. Models with missing variables achieved values of 0.65-0.75 log10 copies HIV RNA/mL. All models identified alternative regimens that were predicted to be effective for the vast majority of cases where the new regimen prescribed in the clinic failed. All models were significantly better predictors of treatment response than genotyping with rules-based interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: These latest models that predict treatment responses accurately, even when a number of baseline variables are not available, are a major advance with greatly enhanced potential benefit, particularly in resource-limited settings. The only obstacle to realizing this potential is the willingness of healthcare professions to use the system.

The Impact of Delayed Switch to Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy on Mortality, Depending on Definition of Failure Time and CD4 Count at Failure.

Little is known about the functional relationship of delaying second-line treatment initiation for human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients and mortality, given a patient's immune status. We included 7,255 patients starting antiretroviral therapy during 2004-2017, from 9 South African cohorts, with virological failure and complete baseline data. We estimated the impact of switch time on the hazard of death using inverse probability of treatment weighting of marginal structural models. The nonlinear relationship between month of switch and the 5-year survival probability, stratified by CD4 count at failure, was estimated with targeted maximum likelihood estimation. We adjusted for measured time-varying confounding by CD4 count, viral load, and visit frequency. Five-year mortality was estimated to be 10.5% (95% CI: 2.2, 18.8) for immediate switch and to be 26.6% (95% CI: 20.9, 32.3) for no switch (51.1% if CD4 count was <100 cells/mm3). The hazard of death was estimated to be 0.37 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.46) times lower if everyone had been switched immediately compared with never. The shorter the delay in switching, the lower the hazard of death-delaying 30-59 days reduced the hazard by 0.53 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.65) times and 60-119 days by 0.58 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.69) times, compared with no switch. Early treatment switch is particularly important for patients with low CD4 counts at failure.

Correction to: Bioaerosol sampling of patients with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis: a study protocol.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Determine TB-LAM point-of-care tuberculosis assay predicts poor outcomes in outpatients during their first year of antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Determine TB-LAM is the first point-of-care test (POC) for HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) and rapidly identifies TB in those at high-risk for short-term mortality. While the relationship between urine-LAM and mortality has been previously described, the outcomes of those undergoing urine-LAM testing have largely been assessed during short follow-up periods within diagnostic accuracy studies. We therefore sought to assess the relationship between baseline urine-LAM results and subsequent hospitalization and mortality under real-world conditions among outpatients in the first year of ART. METHODS: Consecutive, HIV-positive adults with a CD4 count < 100 cells/uL presenting for ART initiation were enrolled. TB diagnoses and outcomes (hospitalization, loss-to-follow and mortality) were recorded during the first year following enrolment. Baseline urine samples were retrospectively tested using the urine-LAM POC assay. Kaplan Meier survival curves were used to assess the cumulative probability of hospitalization or mortality in the first year of follow-up, according to urine-LAM status. Cox regression analyses were performed to determine independent predictors of hospitalization and mortality at three months and one year of follow-up. RESULTS: 468 patients with a median CD4 count of 59 cells/uL were enrolled. There were 140 patients (29.9%) with newly diagnosed TB in the first year of follow-up of which 79 (56.4%) were microbiologically-confirmed. A total of 18% (n = 84) required hospital admission and 12.2% (n = 57) died within a year of study entry. 38 out of 468 (8.1%) patients retrospectively tested urine-LAM positive - including 19.0% of those with microbiologically-proven TB diagnoses (n = 15/79) and 23.0% (n = 14/61) of those with clinical-only TB diagnoses; 9 of 38 (23.7%) of patients retrospectively testing LAM positive were never diagnosed with TB under routine program conditions. Among all patients (n = 468) in the first year of follow-up, a positive urine-LAM result was strongly associated with all-cause hospitalization and mortality with a corresponding adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 3.7 (95%CI, 1.9-7.1) and 2.6 (95%, 1.2-5.7), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic urine-LAM testing among ART-naïve HIV-positive outpatients with CD4 counts < 100 cells/uL detected TB cases that were missed under routine programme conditions and was highly predictive for subsequent hospitalization and mortality in the first year of ART.

Bioaerosol sampling of patients with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis: a study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is transmitted in bioaerosols containing Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Despite being central to ongoing TB transmission, no routine diagnostic assay exists to measure Mtb in bioaerosols. Furthermore, published studies of Mtb in bioaerosol samples have been limited to individuals with sputum-positive pulmonary TB. Notably, TB diagnosis is based on clinical symptoms and sputum laboratory findings. This is despite the fact that approximately half of all patients commencing TB treatment are sputum-negative, resulting in a high proportion of presumptive treatments. Here, we propose to use a sensitive air sampling protocol to investigate the prevalence of Mtb-containing bioaerosols in both sputum-positive and sputum-negative TB suspects, at the same time evaluating the potential to identify unrecognized transmitters of TB. METHODS: Our parallel-group design will identify viable Mtb in bioaerosols produced by individuals attending a TB clinic in South Africa. Sampling will be performed on eligible individuals presenting with symptoms indicative of TB and repeated at 14 days if initially positive. Participants will be prospectively classified into three distinct groups based on National TB Control Program (NTBCP) criteria: Group A, TB notification with sputum-based laboratory confirmation; Group B, TB notification with empiric diagnosis; and Group C, individuals not notified. Group C individuals with detectable Mtb bioaerosol will be monitored until resolution of clinical and laboratory status. Collection of bioaerosol specimens will be via two consecutive sampling modalities: (1) direct sampling following a specific respiratory manoeuvre; and (2) indirect sampling during passive respiratory activity. Bioaerosol specimens will be analyzed for viable Mtb using DMN-trehalose staining and live-cell fluorescence microscopy. Mtb genomes and mycobacterial and host lipids will be detected using droplet digital PCR and mass spectrometry analyses, respectively. The primary objective is to determine the prevalence of Mtb bioaerosols in all TB clinic attendees and in each of the groups. Secondary objectives are to investigate differences in prevalence of Mtb bioaerosol by HIV status and current isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) use; we will also determine the impact of anti-TB chemotherapy on Mtb-containing bioaerosol production. DISCUSSION: Respiratory bioaerosol has a potential role in non-invasive TB diagnosis, infectivity measurement and treatment monitoring. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04241809 . Date of Registration: 27/1/2020.

Risks and Benefits of Dolutegravir- and Efavirenz-Based Strategies for South African Women With HIV of Child-Bearing Potential: A Modeling Study.

Background: Dolutegravir is superior to efavirenz for HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may be associated with an increased risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) in newborns if used by women at conception. Objective: To project clinical outcomes of ART policies for women of child-bearing potential in South Africa. Design: Model of 3 strategies: efavirenz for all women of child-bearing potential (EFV), dolutegravir for all women of child-bearing potential (DTG), or World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended efavirenz without contraception or dolutegravir with contraception (WHO approach). Data Sources: Published data on NTD risks (efavirenz, 0.05%; dolutegravir, 0.67% [Tsepamo study]), 48-week ART efficacy with initiation (efavirenz, 60% to 91%; dolutegravir, 96%), and age-stratified fertility rates (2 to 139 per 1000 women). Target Population: 3.1 million South African women with HIV (aged 15 to 49 years) starting or continuing first-line ART, and their children. Time Horizon: 5 years. Perspective: Societal. Intervention: EFV, DTG, and WHO approach. Outcome Measures: Deaths among women and children, sexual and pediatric HIV transmissions, and NTDs. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Compared with EFV, DTG averted 13 700 women's deaths (0.44% decrease) and 57 700 sexual HIV transmissions, but increased total pediatric deaths by 4400 because of more NTDs. The WHO approach offered some benefits compared with EFV, averting 4900 women's deaths and 20 500 sexual transmissions while adding 300 pediatric deaths. Overall, combined deaths among women and children were lowest with DTG (358 000 deaths) compared with the WHO approach (362 800 deaths) or EFV (367 300 deaths). Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Women's deaths averted with DTG exceeded pediatric deaths added with EFV unless dolutegravir-associated NTD risk was 1.5% or greater. Limitation: Uncertainty in NTD risks and dolutegravir efficacy in resource-limited settings, each examined in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Although NTD risks may be higher with dolutegravir than efavirenz, dolutegravir will lead to many fewer deaths among women, as well as fewer overall HIV transmissions. These results argue against a uniform policy of avoiding dolutegravir in women of child-bearing potential. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Massachusetts General Hospital; and Harvard University Center for AIDS Research.

Association Between Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms in HLA Alleles and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Viral Load in Demographically Diverse, Antiretroviral Therapy-Naive Participants From the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment Trial.

The impact of variation in host genetics on replication of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in demographically diverse populations remains uncertain. In the current study, we performed a genome-wide screen for associations of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to viral load (VL) in antiretroviral therapy-naive participants (n = 2440) with varying demographics from the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial. Associations were assessed using genotypic data generated by a customized SNP array, imputed HLA alleles, and multiple linear regression. Genome-wide significant associations between SNPs and VL were observed in the major histocompatibility complex class I region (MHC I), with effect sizes ranging between 0.14 and 0.39 log10 VL (copies/mL). Supporting the SNP findings, we identified several HLA alleles significantly associated with VL, extending prior observations that the (MHC I) is a major host determinant of HIV-1 control with shared genetic variants across diverse populations and underscoring the limitations of genome-wide association studies as being merely a screening tool.