Accurate predictions of population-level changes in sequence and structural properties of HIV-1 Env using a volatility-controlled diffusion model.

The envelope glycoproteins (Envs) of HIV-1 continuously evolve in the host by random mutations and recombination events. The resulting diversity of Env variants circulating in the population and their continuing diversification process limit the efficacy of AIDS vaccines. We examined the historic changes in Env sequence and structural features (measured by integrity of epitopes on the Env trimer) in a geographically defined population in the United States. As expected, many Env features were relatively conserved during the 1980s. From this state, some features diversified whereas others remained conserved across the years. We sought to identify "clues" to predict the observed historic diversification patterns. Comparison of viruses that cocirculate in patients at any given time revealed that each feature of Env (sequence or structural) exists at a defined level of variance. The in-host variance of each feature is highly conserved among individuals but can vary between different HIV-1 clades. We designate this property "volatility" and apply it to model evolution of features as a linear diffusion process that progresses with increasing genetic distance. Volatilities of different features are highly correlated with their divergence in longitudinally monitored patients. Volatilities of features also correlate highly with their population-level diversification. Using volatility indices measured from a small number of patient samples, we accurately predict the population diversity that developed for each feature over the course of 30 years. Amino acid variants that evolved at key antigenic sites are also predicted well. Therefore, small "fluctuations" in feature values measured in isolated patient samples accurately describe their potential for population-level diversification. These tools will likely contribute to the design of population-targeted AIDS vaccines by effectively capturing the diversity of currently circulating strains and addressing properties of variants expected to appear in the future.

Induction of a Tier-1-Like Phenotype in Diverse Tier-2 Isolates by Agents That Guide HIV-1 Env to Perturbation-Sensitive, Nonnative States.

The envelope glycoproteins (Envs) on the surfaces of HIV-1 particles are targeted by host antibodies. Primary HIV-1 isolates demonstrate different global sensitivities to antibody neutralization; tier-1 isolates are sensitive, whereas tier-2 isolates are more resistant. Single-site mutations in Env can convert tier-2 into tier-1-like viruses. We hypothesized that such global change in neutralization sensitivity results from weakening of intramolecular interactions that maintain Env integrity. Three strategies commonly applied to perturb protein structure were tested for their effects on global neutralization sensitivity: exposure to low temperature, Env-activating ligands, and a chaotropic agent. A large panel of diverse tier-2 isolates from clades B and C was analyzed. Incubation at 0°C, which globally weakens hydrophobic interactions, causes gradual and reversible exposure of the coreceptor-binding site. In the cold-induced state, Envs progress at isolate-specific rates to unstable forms that are sensitive to antibody neutralization and then gradually lose function. Agents that mimic the effects of CD4 (CD4Ms) also induce reversible structural changes to states that exhibit isolate-specific stabilities. The chaotropic agent urea (at low concentrations) does not affect the structure or function of native Env. However, urea efficiently perturbs metastable states induced by cold and CD4Ms and increases their sensitivity to antibody neutralization and their inactivation rates Therefore, chemical and physical agents can guide Env from the stable native state to perturbation-sensitive forms and modulate their stability to bestow tier-1-like properties on primary tier-2 strains. These concepts can be applied to enhance the potency of vaccine-elicited antibodies and microbicides at mucosal sites of HIV-1 transmission.IMPORTANCE An effective vaccine to prevent transmission of HIV-1 is a primary goal of the scientific and health care communities. Vaccine-elicited antibodies target the viral envelope glycoproteins (Envs) and can potentially inhibit infection. However, the potency of such antibodies is generally low. Single-site mutations in Env can enhance the global sensitivity of HIV-1 to neutralization by antibodies. We found that such a hypersensitivity phenotype can also be induced by agents that destabilize protein structure. Exposure to 0°C or low concentrations of Env-activating ligands gradually guides Env to metastable forms that expose cryptic epitopes and that are highly sensitive to neutralization. Low concentrations of the chaotropic agent urea do not affect native Env but destabilize perturbed states induced by cold or CD4Ms and increase their neutralization. The concept of enhancing antibody sensitivity by chemical agents that affect the structural stability of proteins can be applied to increase the potency of topical microbicides and vaccine-elicited antibodies.