Decomposing the gaps in healthy and unhealthy life expectancies between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians: a burden of disease and injury study.

BACKGROUND: The gaps in healthy life expectancy (HLE) between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians are significant. Detailed and accurate information is required to develop strategies that will close these health disparities. This paper aims to quantify and compare the causes and their relative contributions to the life expectancy (LE) gaps between the Indigenous and non-Indigenous population in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia. METHODS: The age-cause decomposition was used to analyse the differences in HLE and unhealthy life expectancy (ULE), where LE = HLE + ULE. The data was sourced from the burden of disease and injury study in the NT between 2014 and 2018. RESULTS: In 2014-2018, the HLE at birth in the NT Indigenous population was estimated at 43.3 years in males and 41.4 years in females, 26.5 and 33.5 years shorter than the non-Indigenous population. This gap approximately doubled the LE gap (14.0 years in males, 16.6 years in females) at birth. In contrast to LE and HLE, ULE at birth was longer in the Indigenous than non-Indigenous population. The leading causes of the ULE gap at birth were endocrine conditions (explaining 2.9-4.4 years, 23-26%), followed by mental conditions in males and musculoskeletal conditions in females (1.92 and 1.94 years, 15% and 12% respectively), markedly different from the causes of the LE gap (cardiovascular disease, cancers and unintentional injury). CONCLUSIONS: The ULE estimates offer valuable insights into the patterns of morbidity particularly useful in terms of primary and secondary prevention.

Patterns of health workforce turnover and retention in Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services in remote communities of the Northern Territory and Western Australia, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services (ACCHSs) in Australia aim to optimise access to comprehensive and culturally safe primary health care (PHC) for Aboriginal populations. Central to quality service provision is the retention of staff. However, there is lack of published research reporting patterns of staff turnover and retention specific to ACCHSs. This study quantified staff turnover and retention in regional and remote ACCHSs in the Northern Territory (NT) and Western Australia (WA), and examined correlations between turnover and retention metrics, and ACCHSs' geographical and demographic characteristics. METHODS: The study used 2017-2019 payroll data for health workers in 22 regional and remote PHC clinics managed by 11 ACCHSs. Primary outcome measures included annual turnover and 12-month stability rates, calculated at both clinic and organisation levels. RESULTS: There was a median of five client-facing (Aboriginal health practitioners, allied health professionals, doctors, nurses/midwives, and 'other health workers' combined) and two non-client-facing (administrative and physical) staff per remote clinic, at any timepoint. Mean annual turnover rates for staff were very high, with 151% turnover rates at the clinic level and 81% turnover rates at the organisation level. Mean annual turnover rates for client-facing staff were 164% and 75%, compared to 120% and 98% for non-client-facing staff, at clinic and organisational levels, respectively. Mean 12-month stability rates were low, with clinic-level stability rates of only 49% and organisation-level stability rates of 58%. Mean annual clinic-level turnover rates were 162% for non-Aboriginal staff and 81% for Aboriginal staff. Both workforce metrics were moderately to highly correlated with the relative remoteness of clinics, size of regular clients serviced, and average annual headcount of employees in each clinic (p values < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Participating ACCHSs in remote NT and WA have very high turnover and low retention of healthcare staff. Overall, clinic-level turnover rates increase as distance from regional centres increases and are lower for Aboriginal staff, suggesting that greater employment of Aboriginal staff could help stabilise staffing. Improved retention could reduce burden on ACCHSs' resources and may also support quality of service delivery due to improved cultural safety and continuity of care.

Costs and healthcare use of patients with chronic kidney disease in the Northern Territory, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is high in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia. This study aims to describe the healthcare use and associated costs of people at risk of CKD (e.g. acute kidney injury, diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease) or living with CKD in the NT, from a healthcare funder perspective. METHODS: We included a retrospective cohort of patients at risk of, or living with CKD, on 1 January 2017. Patients on kidney replacement therapy were excluded from the study. Data from the Territory Kidney Care database, encompassing patients from public hospitals and primary health care services across the NT was used to conduct costing. Annual healthcare costs, including hospital, primary health care, medication, and investigation costs were described over a one-year follow-up period. Factors associated with high total annual healthcare costs were identified with a cost prediction model. RESULTS: Among 37,398 patients included in this study, 23,419 had a risk factor for CKD while 13,979 had CKD (stages 1 to 5, not on kidney replacement therapy). The overall mean (± SD) age was 45 years (± 17), and a large proportion of the study cohort were First Nations people (68%). Common comorbidities in the overall cohort included diabetes (36%), hypertension (32%), and coronary artery disease (11%). Annual healthcare cost was lowest in those at risk of CKD (AUD$7,958 per person) and highest in those with CKD stage 5 (AUD$67,117 per person). Inpatient care contributed to the majority (76%) of all healthcare costs. Predictors of increased total annual healthcare cost included more advanced stages of CKD, and the presence of comorbidities. In CKD stage 5, the additional cost per person per year was + $53,634 (95%CI 32,769 to 89,482, p < 0.001) compared to people in the at risk group without CKD. CONCLUSION: The total healthcare costs in advanced stages of CKD is high, even when patients are not on dialysis. There remains a need for effective primary prevention and early intervention strategies targeting CKD and related chronic conditions.

Optimising remote health workforce retention: protocol for a program of research.

BACKGROUND: Nowhere is optimising healthcare staff retention more important than in primary health care (PHC) settings in remote Australia, where there are unacceptably high rates of staff burnout and turnover. Ensuing consequences for the remote health services and the community are acute - staffing shortfalls in clinics; organisational instability; excessive costs associated with frequent staff recruitment and orientation; diminished access to PHC for patients in need; and lack of continuity of patient care; all of which further entrench poor health outcomes for the community. Optimising remote healthcare staff retention is critical in order to provide high quality and continued PHC. Currently, however, there is paucity of knowledge to inform targeted and effective retention strategies in remote health services. This research program seeks to develop a stronger evidence base to understand (i) what retention strategies are effective in improving morale, job satisfaction, intention to remain in the job, and consequent length of service for remote healthcare staff; (ii) how best to 'bundle' these strategies for different health workforce groups; and (iii) how these 'bundles' work in different service contexts. METHODS: This paper describes a five-year implementation research program in partnership with twelve remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Community Controlled Health Services (ATSICCHS) in the Northern Territory and Queensland, Australia. Overall methodology follows a participatory action research approach which incorporates co-design and realist elements. The program comprises two broad phases involving evidence consolidation and synthesis (Phase 1), and co-design, implementation, and prospective evaluation of 'bundles' of retention strategies (Phase 2) to improve retention of healthcare staff in participating ATSICCHSs. DISCUSSION: This innovative research program has the potential to develop a comprehensive evidence base required to optimise health workforce retention in remote health services. This new evidence will strengthen understanding of what 'bundles' of retention strategies are effective, for which groups of employees, and how they work to improve staff retention.

The efficiency, timeliness, health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a new aeromedical retrieval model in Central Australia: A pre- and post-implementation observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess timeliness, efficiency, health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of the 2018 redesigned Central Australian aeromedical retrieval model. DESIGN: Pre- and postimplementation observational study of all patients receiving telehealth consultations from remote medical practitioners (RMPs) or Medical Retrieval and Consultation Centre (MRaCC) physicians between 1/1/2015 and 29/2/2020. Descriptive and inferential statistics measuring system efficiency, timeliness, health outcomes and incremental cost-effectiveness. FINDINGS: There were 9%-10% reductions in rates of total aeromedical retrievals, emergency department admissions and hospitalisations postimplementation, all p-values < 0.001. Usage rates for total hospital bed days and ICU hours were 17% lower (both p < 0.001). After adjusting for periodicity (12% fewer retrievals on weekends), each postimplementation year, there were 0.7 fewer retrievals/day (p = 0.002). The mean time from initial consultation to aeromedical departure declined by 18 minutes post-implementation (115 vs. 97 min, p = 0.007). The hazard of death within 365 days was nonsignificant (0.912, 95% CI 0.743-1.120). Postimplementation, it cost $302 more per hospital admission and $3051 more per year of life saved, with a 75% probability of cost-effectiveness. These costs excluded estimated savings of $744,528/year in reduced hospitalisations and the substantial social and out-of-pocket costs to patients and their families associated with temporary relocation to Alice Springs. CONCLUSION: Central Australia's new critical care consultant-led aeromedical retrieval model is more efficient, is dispatched faster and is more cost-effective. These findings are highly relevant to other remote regions in Australia and internationally that have comparable GP-led retrieval services.

Effects of community water fluoridation on child dental caries in remote Northern Territory, Australia: a difference-in-difference analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Community water fluoridation (CWF) is a cost-effective intervention to reduce dental caries at population level. This Australian study used a difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis to measure dental caries in children exposed to CWF in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia. METHODS: Oral health data obtained from the NT Department of Health contained 64 399 person-year observations from 2008 to 2020, totalling 24 546 children aged 1-17 years. Drinking water quality data for fluoride levels, held by the Power and Water Corporation, were obtained for 50 remote communities and linked to the oral health dataset. The DiD analysis used a treatment group and two control groups to compare the effects of CWF on dental caries outcomes in children, measured using the decayed, missing and filled teeth (dmft/DMFT) index. The treatment group consisted of records from children residing in five remote NT communities that implemented CWF in 2014.The control 1 group included records of children residing in communities with naturally occurring fluoride in drinking water supplies at levels at or above the Department of Health policy threshold of 0.5 mg/L. The control 2 group included records of children residing in communities with naturally occurring fluoride in drinking water supplies below the level recommended by the Department of Health policy (<0.5 mg/L). The data were grouped into time periods prior to the inception of CWF in five remote communities in 2014 (pre-intervention) and after 2014 (post-intervention). RESULTS: Our results demonstrated that dental caries was significantly decreased for children in the treatment group following the implementation of CWF at a greater magnitude than both control groups for the same time period. Overall, children assigned to the treatment group exhibited a decline in the number of teeth affected by caries by an average of 0.28 (p=0.001). Notably, children of ages 7-10 years and 11-17 years experienced significantly greater post-intervention declines in average dmft/DMFT, by 0.32 (p=0.051) and 0.40 (p=0.012) fewer affected teeth respectively. CONCLUSION: While dental caries disproportionately impacts Aboriginal children in remote and very remote NT, it is clear that CWF produces population-level reductions in overall dental caries for these populations. Additionally, our study demonstrates the application of the DiD method in a public health policy evaluation. Our findings suggest that the longstanding policy position of the NT Department of Health on CWF has supported improvements in oral health among child populations that experience high levels of dental caries in remote NT communities.

Telehealth in remote Australia: a supplementary tool or an alternative model of care replacing face-to-face consultations?

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic increased the use of telehealth consultations by telephone and video around the world. While telehealth can improve access to primary health care, there are significant gaps in our understanding about how, when and to what extent telehealth should be used. This paper explores the perspectives of health care staff on the key elements relating to the effective use of telehealth for patients living in remote Australia. METHODS: Between February 2020 and October 2021, interviews and discussion groups were conducted with 248 clinic staff from 20 different remote communities across northern Australia. Interview coding followed an inductive approach. Thematic analysis was used to group codes into common themes. RESULTS: Reduced need to travel for telehealth consultations was perceived to benefit both health providers and patients. Telehealth functioned best when there was a pre-established relationship between the patient and the health care provider and with patients who had good knowledge of their personal health, spoke English and had access to and familiarity with digital technology. On the other hand, telehealth was thought to be resource intensive, increasing remote clinic staff workload as most patients needed clinic staff to facilitate the telehealth session and complete background administrative work to support the consultation and an interpreter for translation services. Clinic staff universally emphasised that telehealth is a useful supplementary tool, and not a stand-alone service model replacing face-to-face interactions. CONCLUSION: Telehealth has the potential to improve access to healthcare in remote areas if complemented with adequate face-to-face services. Careful workforce planning is required while introducing telehealth into clinics that already face high staff shortages. Digital infrastructure with reliable internet connections with sufficient speed and latency need to be available at affordable prices in remote communities to make full use of telehealth consultations. Training and employment of local Aboriginal staff as digital navigators could ensure a culturally safe clinical environment for telehealth consultations and promote the effective use of telehealth services among community members.

Costs and benefits of community water fluoridation in remote Aboriginal communities of the Northern Territory.

OBJECTIVE: To undertake an economic evaluation of community water fluoridation (CWF) in remote communities of the Northern Territory (NT). DESIGN: Dental caries experiences were compared between CWF and non-CWF communities before and after intervention. Costs and benefits of CWF are ascertained from the health sector perspective using water quality, accounting, oral health, dental care and hospitalisation datasets. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Remote Aboriginal population in the NT between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2020. INTERVENTION: CWF. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Potential economic benefits were estimated by changes in caries scores valued at the NT average dental service costs. RESULTS: Given the total 20-year life span of a fluoridation plant ($1.77 million), the net present benefit of introducing CWF in a typical community of 300-499 population was $3.79 million. For each $1 invested in CWF by government, the estimated long-term economic value of savings to health services ranged from $1.1 (population ≤300) to $16 (population ≥2000) due to reductions in treating dental caries and associated hospitalisations. The payback period ranged from 15 years (population ≤300) to 2.2 years (population ≥2000). CONCLUSIONS: The economic benefits of expanding CWF in remote Aboriginal communities of NT outweigh the costs of installation, operation and maintenance of fluoridation plants over the lifespan of CWF infrastructure for population of 300 or more.

Evaluation of a new medical retrieval and primary health care advice model in Central Australia: Results of pre- and post-implementation surveys.

INTRODUCTION: In February 2018 the Remote Medical Practitioner (RMP)-led telehealth model for providing both primary care advice and aeromedical retrievals in Central Australia was replaced by the Medical Retrieval and Consultation Centre (MRaCC) and Remote Outreach Consultation Centre (ROCC). In this new model, specialists with advanced critical care skills provide telehealth consultations for emergencies 24/7 and afterhours primary care advice (MRaCC) while RMPs (general practitioners) provide primary care telehealth advice in business hours via the separate ROCC. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in clinicians' perceptions of efficiency and timeliness of the new (MRaCC) and (ROCC) model in Central Australia. DESIGN: There were 103 and 72 respondents, respectively, to pre- and post-implementation surveys of remote clinicians and specialist staff. FINDINGS: Both emergency and primary care aspects of telehealth support were perceived as being significantly more timely and efficient under the newly introduced MRaCC/ROCC model. Importantly, health professionals in remote community were more likely to feel that their access to clinical support during emergencies was consistent and immediately available. DISCUSSION: Respondents consistently perceived the new MRaCC/ROCC model more favourably than the previous RMP-led model, suggesting that there are benefits to having separate referral streams for telehealth advice for primary health care and emergencies, and staffing the emergency stream with specialists with advanced critical care skills. CONCLUSION: Given the paucity of literature about optimal models for providing pre-hospital medical care to remote residents, the findings have substantial local, national and international relevance and implications, particularly in similar geographically large countries, with low population density.

Improved life expectancy for Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in the Northern Territory, 1999-2018: overall and by underlying cause of death.

OBJECTIVES: To provide updated estimates of life expectancy at birth for Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in the Northern Territory, 1999-2018; to quantify the contributions of changes in life years lost to disease-specific causes of death to overall changes in life expectancy. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of Australian Coordinating Registry data on underlying and nine multiple causes of death (ICD-10) for deaths in the NT, by age, sex, and Indigenous status, 1 January 1999 - 31 December 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Life expectancy at birth by year and 5-year period, by Indigenous status and sex; change in life expectancy by year and 5-year period, by Indigenous status and sex; contributions in changes in life years lost to leading underlying causes of death, by 5-year period, Indigenous status and sex. RESULTS: Life expectancy for Indigenous men increased from 56.6 years in 1999 to 65.6 years in 2018 (change, 9.0 years; 95% CI, 7.9-10.0 years) and from 64.8 to 69.7 years for Indigenous women (4.9 years; 95% CI, 3.2-6.7 years); for non-Indigenous men, it increased from 77.4 to 81.0 years (3.6 years; 95% CI, 2.8-4.4 years), and from 84.3 to 85.1 years for non-Indigenous women (0.8 years; 95% CI, -0.4 to 1.9 years). Increased life expectancy for Indigenous men was primarily linked with fewer years of life lost to cancer (23% of overall change), unintentional injuries (18%), and cardiovascular disease (17%), and for Indigenous women with fewer life years lost to cancer (24%), intentional injuries (17%), and kidney disease (14%). During 1999-2018, the difference in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people declined by 26% for men (from 20.8 to 15.4 years) and by 21% for women (from 19.5 to 15.4 years). CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy improved markedly during 1999-2018 for Indigenous people in the NT, particularly with respect to fewer years of life lost to cancer, injuries, and chronic disease. The smaller gains in life expectancy for non-Indigenous people were linked with improved survival for those with cancer and neurological conditions.

Optimising medical retrieval processes and outcomes in remote areas in high-income countries: A scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: This scoping review explores the structure and process-level strategies that are associated with medical retrieval outcomes. A secondary aim is to identify the range of medical retrieval outcomes used to assess the performance of remote retrieval services. DESIGN: A scoping review of peer-reviewed literature from PubMed, CINAHL and the Web of Science was undertaken following guidelines set by the Johanna Briggs Institute manual for scoping reviews. All articles were assessed by two reviewers. Themes were derived inductively from the data extracted. SETTING: Medical retrievals in sparsely populated remote locations in high-income countries. PARTICIPANTS: Staff and clients of remote medical retrieval services. INTERVENTIONS: Structures and processes (e.g. resource availability, retrieval staff structures and governance protocols) that aimed to improve medical retrieval outcomes. OUTCOMES: Patient health outcomes and service efficiency. RESULTS: Twenty-four articles were included. Three broad themes, related to the nature of the interventions, were included: optimising prehospital management of retrievals, staffing and resourcing of retrieval services and retrieval model evaluation. Mortality was the most frequently used outcome indicator in these studies, but was not measured consistently across studies. CONCLUSIONS: This review highlights significant gaps in the literature that describes the structure and processes of retrieval models operating in remote areas and a dearth of literature evaluating specific operational strategies implemented within medical retrieval models. The available literature does not meaningfully assist with identifying key outcome indicators for developing a consistent monitoring and evaluation framework for retrieval services in geographically, culturally and demographically diverse remote contexts.

Interventions for health workforce retention in rural and remote areas: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Attracting and retaining sufficient health workers to provide adequate services for residents of rural and remote areas has global significance. High income countries (HICs) face challenges in staffing rural areas, which are often perceived by health workers as less attractive workplaces. The objective of this review was to examine the quantifiable associations between interventions to retain health workers in rural and remote areas of HICs, and workforce retention. METHODS: The review considers studies of rural or remote health workers in HICs where participants have experienced interventions, support measures or incentive programs intended to increase retention. Experimental, quasi-experimental and observational study designs including cohort, case-control, cross-sectional and case series studies published since 2010 were eligible for inclusion. The Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for reviews of risk and aetiology was used. Databases searched included MEDLINE (OVID), CINAHL (EBSCO), Embase, Web of Science and Informit. RESULTS: Of 2649 identified articles, 34 were included, with a total of 58,188 participants. All study designs were observational, limiting certainty of findings. Evidence relating to the retention of non-medical health professionals was scant. There is growing evidence that preferential selection of students who grew up in a rural area is associated with increased rural retention. Undertaking substantial lengths of rural training during basic university training or during post-graduate training were each associated with higher rural retention, as was supporting existing rural health professionals to extend their skills or upgrade their qualifications. Regulatory interventions requiring return-of-service (ROS) in a rural area in exchange for visa waivers, access to professional licenses or provider numbers were associated with comparatively low rural retention, especially once the ROS period was complete. Rural retention was higher if ROS was in exchange for loan repayments. CONCLUSION: Educational interventions such as preferential selection of rural students and distributed training in rural areas are associated with increased rural retention of health professionals. Strongly coercive interventions are associated with comparatively lower rural retention than interventions that involve less coercion. Policy makers seeking rural retention in the medium and longer term would be prudent to strengthen rural training pathways and limit the use of strongly coercive interventions.

Remote health workforce turnover and retention: what are the policy and practice priorities?

BACKGROUND: Residents of remote communities in Australia and other geographically large countries have comparatively poorer access to high-quality primary health care. To inform ongoing policy development and practice in relation to remote area health service delivery, particularly in remote Indigenous communities, this review synthesizes the key findings of (1) a comprehensive study of workforce turnover and retention in remote Northern Territory (NT) of Australia and (2) a narrative review of relevant international literature on remote and rural health workforce retention strategies. This synthesis provides a valuable summary of the current state of international knowledge about improving remote health workforce retention. MAIN TEXT: Annual turnover rates of NT remote area nurses (148%) and Aboriginal health practitioners (80%) are very high and 12-month stability rates low (48% and 76%, respectively). In remote NT, use of agency nurses has increased substantially. Primary care costs are high and proportional to staff turnover and remoteness. Effectiveness of care decreases with higher turnover and use of short-term staff, such that higher staff turnover is always less cost-effective. If staff turnover in remote clinics were halved, the potential savings would be approximately A$32 million per annum. Staff turnover and retention were affected by management style and effectiveness, and employment of Indigenous staff. Review of the international literature reveals three broad themes: Targeted enrolment into training and appropriate education designed to produce a competent, accessible, acceptable and 'fit-for-purpose' workforce; addressing broader health system issues that ensure a safe and supportive work environment; and providing ongoing individual and family support. Key educational initiatives include prioritising remote origin and Indigenous students for university entry; maximising training in remote areas; contextualising curricula; providing financial, pedagogical and pastoral support; and ensuring clear, supported career pathways and continuing professional development. Health system initiatives include ensuring adequate funding; providing adequate infrastructure including fit-for-purpose clinics, housing, transport and information technology; offering flexible employment arrangements whilst ensuring a good 'fit' between individual staff and the community (especially with regard to cultural skills); optimising co-ordination and management of services that empower staff and create positive practice environments; and prioritising community participation and employment of locals. Individual and family supports include offering tailored financial incentives, psychological support and 'time out'. CONCLUSION: Optimal remote health workforce stability and preventing excessive 'avoidable' turnover mandates alignment of government and health authority policies with both health service requirements and individual health professional and community needs. Supportive underpinning policies include: Strong intersectoral collaboration between the health and education sectors to ensure a fit-for-purpose workforce;A funding policy which mandates the development and implementation of an equitable, needs-based formula for funding remote health services;Policies that facilitate transition to community control, prioritise Indigenous training and employment, and mandate a culturally safe work context; andAn employment policy which provides flexibility of employment conditions in order to be able to offer individually customised retention packages There is considerable extant evidence from around the world about effective retention strategies that contribute to slowing excessive remote health workforce turnover, resulting in significant cost savings and improved continuity of care. The immediate problem comprises an 'implementation gap' in translating empirical research evidence into actions designed to resolve existing problems. If we wish to ameliorate the very high turnover of staff in remote areas, in order to provide an equitable service to populations with arguably the highest health needs, we need political and executive commitment to get the policy settings right and ensure the coordinated implementation of multiple strategies, including better linking existing strategies and 'filling the gaps' where necessary.

Estimating the total prevalence and incidence of end-stage kidney disease among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in the Northern Territory of Australia, using multiple data sources.

BACKGROUND: Most estimates for End Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD) prevalence and incidence are based on renal replacement therapy (RRT) registers. However, not all people with ESKD will commence RRT and estimates based only on RRT registry data will underestimate the true burden of ESKD in the community. This study estimates the total number of Northern Territory (NT) residents with ESKD including: those receiving RRT, those diagnosed but not receiving RRT and an estimate of "undiagnosed" cases. METHODS: Four data sources were used to identify NT residents with a diagnosis of ESKD: public hospital admissions, Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry registrations, death registrations and, for the Aboriginal population only, electronic primary care records. Three data sources contained information recorded between 1 July 2008 and 31 December 2013, death registration data extended to 31 December 2014 to capture 2013 prevalent cases. A capture-recapture method was used to estimate both diagnosed and undiagnosed cases by making use of probability patterns of overlapping multiple data sources. RESULTS: In 2013, the estimated ESKD prevalence in the NT Aboriginal population was 11.01 (95% confidence interval (CI) 10.24-11.78) per 1000, and 0.90 (95% CI 0.76-1.05) per 1000 in the NT non-Aboriginal population. The age-adjusted rates were 17.97 (95% CI 17.82-18.11) and 1.07 (95% CI 1.05-1.09) per 1000 in the NT Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations respectively. The proportion of individuals receiving RRT was 71.4% of Aboriginal and 75.5% of non-Aboriginal prevalent ESKD cases. The age-adjusted ESKD incidence was also greater for the Aboriginal (5.26 (95% CI 4.44-6.08) per 1000 population) than non-Aboriginal population (0.36 (95% CI 0.25-0.47) per 1000). CONCLUSION: This study provides comprehensive estimates of the burden of ESKD including those cases that are not identified in relevant health data sources. The results are important for informing strategies to reduce the total burden of ESKD and to manage the potential unmet demand, particularly from comparatively young Aboriginal patients who may be suitable for RRT but do not currently access the services for social, geographic or cultural reasons.

Long-Term Outcomes From Acute Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease: A Data-Linkage and Survival Analysis Approach.

BACKGROUND: We investigated adverse outcomes for people with acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) and the effect of comorbidities and demographic factors on these outcomes. METHODS: Using linked data (RHD register, hospital, and mortality data) for residents of the Northern Territory of Australia, we calculated ARF recurrence rates, rates of progression from ARF to RHD to severe RHD, RHD complication rates (heart failure, endocarditis, stroke, and atrial fibrillation), and mortality rates for 572 individuals diagnosed with ARF and 1248 with RHD in 1997 to 2013 (94.9% Indigenous). RESULTS: ARF recurrence was highest (incidence, 3.7 per 100 person-years) in the first year after the initial ARF episode, but low-level risk persisted for >10 years. Progression to RHD was also highest (incidence, 35.9) in the first year, almost 10 times higher than ARF recurrence. The median age at RHD diagnosis in Indigenous people was young, especially among males (17 years). The development of complications was highest in the first year after RHD diagnosis: heart failure incidence rate per 100 person-years, 9.09; atrial fibrillation, 4.70; endocarditis, 1.00; and stroke, 0.58. Mortality was higher among Indigenous than non-Indigenous RHD patients (hazard ratio, 6.55; 95% confidence interval, 2.45-17.51), of which 28% was explained by comorbid renal failure and hazardous alcohol use. RHD complications and mortality rates were higher for urban than for remote residents. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides important new prognostic information for ARF/RHD. The residual Indigenous survival disparity in RHD patients, which persisted after accounting for comorbidities, suggests that other factors contribute to mortality, warranting further research.

Different survival analysis methods for measuring long-term outcomes of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian cancer patients in the presence and absence of competing risks.

BACKGROUND: Net survival is the most common measure of cancer prognosis and has been used to study differentials in cancer survival between ethnic or racial population subgroups. However, net survival ignores competing risks of deaths and so provides incomplete prognostic information for cancer patients, and when comparing survival between populations with different all-cause mortality. Another prognosis measure, "crude probability of death", which takes competing risk of death into account, overcomes this limitation. Similar to net survival, it can be calculated using either life tables (using Cronin-Feuer method) or cause of death data (using Fine-Gray method). The aim of this study is two-fold: (1) to compare the multivariable results produced by different survival analysis methods; and (2) to compare the Cronin-Feuer with the Fine-Gray methods, in estimating the cancer and non-cancer death probability of both Indigenous and non-Indigenous cancer patients and the Indigenous cancer disparities. METHODS: Cancer survival was investigated for 9,595 people (18.5% Indigenous) diagnosed with cancer in the Northern Territory of Australia between 1991 and 2009. The Cox proportional hazard model along with Poisson and Fine-Gray regression were used in the multivariable analysis. The crude probabilities of cancer and non-cancer methods were estimated in two ways: first, using cause of death data with the Fine-Gray method, and second, using life tables with the Cronin-Feuer method. RESULTS: Multivariable regression using the relative survival, cause-specific survival, and competing risk analysis produced similar results. In the presence of competing risks, the Cronin-Feuer method produced similar results to Fine-Gray in the estimation of cancer death probability (higher Indigenous cancer death probabilities for all cancers) and non-cancer death probabilities (higher Indigenous non-cancer death probabilities for all cancers except lung cancer and head and neck cancers). Cronin-Feuer estimated much lower non-cancer death probabilities than Fine-Gray for non-Indigenous patients with head and neck cancers and lung cancers (both smoking-related cancers). CONCLUSION: Despite the limitations of the Cronin-Feuer method, it is a reasonable alternative to the Fine-Gray method for assessing the Indigenous survival differential in the presence of competing risks when valid and reliable subgroup-specific life tables are available and cause of death data are unavailable or unreliable.

Progress in closing the gap in life expectancy at birth for Aboriginal people in the Northern Territory, 1967-2012.

OBJECTIVES: To compare long term changes in mortality and life expectancy at birth (LE) of Aboriginal people in the Northern Territory and of the overall Australian population; to determine the contributions of changes in mortality in specific age groups to changes in LE for each population. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective trend analysis of death and LE data for the NT Aboriginal and Australian populations, 1967-2012. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: LE estimates based on abridged life tables; mortality estimates (deaths per 100 000 population); and age decomposition of LE changes by sex and time period. RESULTS: Between 1967 and 2012, LE increased for both NT Aboriginal and all Australians; the difference in LE between the two populations declined by 4.6 years for females, but increased by one year for males. Between 1967-1971 and 1980-1984, LE of NT Aboriginal people increased rapidly, particularly through reduced infant mortality; from 1980-1984 to 1994-1998, there was little change; from 1994-1998 to 2008-2012, there were modest gains in older age groups. Decomposition by age group identified the persistent and substantial contribution of the 35-74-year age groups to the difference in LE between NT Aboriginal people and all Australians. CONCLUSIONS: Early gains in LE for NT Aboriginal people are consistent with improvements in nutrition, maternal and infant care, and infectious disease control. A rapid epidemiological transition followed, when LE gains in younger age groups plateaued and non-communicable diseases became more prevalent. Recent LE gains, across all adult age groups, are consistent with improved health service access and chronic disease management. If LE is to continue improving, socio-economic disadvantage and its associated risks must be reduced.

Patterns of resident health workforce turnover and retention in remote communities of the Northern Territory of Australia, 2013-2015.

BACKGROUND: The geographical maldistribution of the health workforce is a persisting global issue linked to inequitable access to health services and poorer health outcomes for rural and remote populations. In the Northern Territory (NT), anecdotal reports suggest that the primary care workforce in remote Aboriginal communities is characterised by high turnover, low stability and high use of temporary staffing; however, there is a lack of reliable information to guide workforce policy improvements. This study quantifies current turnover and retention in remote NT communities and investigates correlations between turnover and retention metrics and health service/community characteristics. METHODS: This study used the NT Department of Health 2013-2015 payroll and financial datasets for resident health workforce in 53 remote primary care clinics. Main outcome measures include annual turnover rates, annual stability rates, 12-month survival probabilities and median survival. RESULTS: At any time point, the clinics had a median of 2.0 nurses, 0.6 Aboriginal health practitioners (AHPs), 2.2 other employees and 0.4 additional agency-employed nurses. Mean annual turnover rates for nurses and AHPs combined were extremely high, irrespective of whether turnover was defined as no longer working in any remote clinic (66%) or no longer working at a specific remote clinic (128%). Stability rates were low, and only 20% of nurses and AHPs remain working at a specific remote clinic 12 months after commencing. Half left within 4 months. Nurse and AHP turnover correlated with other workforce measures. However, there was little correlation between most workforce metrics and health service characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: NT Government-funded remote clinics are small, experience very high staff turnover and make considerable use of agency nurses. These staffing patterns, also found in remote settings elsewhere in Australia and globally, not only incur higher direct costs for service provision-and therefore may compromise long-term sustainability-but also are almost certainly contributing to sub-optimal continuity of care, compromised health outcomes and poorer levels of staff safety. To address these deficiencies, it is imperative that investments in implementing, adequately resourcing and evaluating staffing models which stabilise the remote primary care workforce occur as a matter of priority.

Long-term trends in supply and sustainability of the health workforce in remote Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory of Australia.

BACKGROUND: International evidence suggests that a key to improving health and attaining more equitable health outcomes for disadvantaged populations is a health system with a strong primary care sector. Longstanding problems with health workforce supply and turnover in remote Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia, jeopardise primary care delivery and the effort to overcome the substantial gaps in health outcomes for this population. This research describes temporal changes in workforce supply in government-operated clinics in remote NT communities through a period in which there has been a substantial increase in health funding. METHODS: Descriptive and Markov-switching dynamic regression analysis of NT Government Department of Health payroll and financial data for the resident health workforce in 54 remote clinics, 2004-2015. The workforce included registered Remote Area Nurses and Midwives (nurses), Aboriginal Health Practitioners (AHPs) and staff in administrative and logistic roles. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: total number of unique employees per year; average annual headcounts; average full-time equivalent (FTE) positions; agency employed nurse FTE estimates; high and low supply state estimates. RESULTS: Overall increases in workforce supply occurred between 2004 and 2015, especially for administrative and logistic positions. Supply of nurses and AHPs increased from an average 2.6 to 3.2 FTE per clinic, although supply of AHPs has declined since 2010. Each year almost twice as many individual NT government-employed nurses or AHPs are required for each FTE position. Following funding increases, some clinics doubled their nursing and AHP workforce and achieved relative stability in supply. However, most clinics increased staffing to a much smaller extent or not at all, typically experiencing a "fading" of supply following an initial increase associated with greater funding, and frequently cycling periods of higher and lower staffing levels. CONCLUSIONS: Overall increases in workforce supply in remote NT communities between 2004 and 2015 have been affected by continuing very high turnover of nurses and AHPs, and compounded by recent declines in AHP supply. Despite substantial increases in resourcing, an imperative remains to implement more robust health service models which better support the supply and retention of resident health staff.