Conspiracy vs science: A large-scale analysis of online discussion cascades.

With the emergence and rapid proliferation of social media platforms and social networking sites, recent years have witnessed a surge of misinformation spreading in our daily life. Drawing on a large-scale dataset which covers more than 1.4M posts and 18M comments from an online social media platform, we investigate the propagation of two distinct narratives-(i) conspiracy information, whose claims are generally unsubstantiated and thus referred as misinformation to some extent, and (ii) scientific information, whose origins are generally readily identifiable and verifiable. We find that conspiracy cascades tend to propagate in a multigenerational branching process whereas science cascades are more likely to grow in a breadth-first manner. Specifically, conspiracy information triggers larger cascades, involves more users and generations, persists longer, and is more viral and bursty than science information. Content analysis reveals that conspiracy cascades contain more negative words and emotional words which convey anger, fear, disgust, surprise and trust. We also find that conspiracy cascades are much more concerned with political and controversial topics. After applying machine learning models, we achieve an AUC score of nearly 90% in discriminating conspiracy from science narratives using the constructed features. We further investigate user's role during the growth of cascades. In contrast with previous assumption that misinformation is primarily driven by a small set of users, we find that conspiracy cascades are more likely to be controlled by a broader set of users than science cascades, imposing new challenges on the management of misinformation. Although political affinity is thought to affect the consumption of misinformation, there is very little evidence that political orientation of the information source plays a role during the propagation of conspiracy information; Instead, we find that conspiracy information from media outlets with left or right orientation triggers smaller cascades and is less viral than information from online social media platforms (e.g., Twitter and Imgur) whose political orientations are unclear. Our study provides complementing evidence to current misinformation research and has practical policy implications to stem the propagation and mitigate the influence of misinformation online.

Coupling dynamics of epidemic spreading and information diffusion on complex networks.

The interaction between disease and disease information on complex networks has facilitated an interdisciplinary research area. When a disease begins to spread in the population, the corresponding information would also be transmitted among individuals, which in turn influence the spreading pattern of the disease. In this paper, firstly, we analyze the propagation of two representative diseases (H7N9 and Dengue fever) in the real-world population and their corresponding information on Internet, suggesting the high correlation of the two-type dynamical processes. Secondly, inspired by empirical analyses, we propose a nonlinear model to further interpret the coupling effect based on the SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) model. Both simulation results and theoretical analysis show that a high prevalence of epidemic will lead to a slow information decay, consequently resulting in a high infected level, which shall in turn prevent the epidemic spreading. Finally, further theoretical analysis demonstrates that a multi-outbreak phenomenon emerges via the effect of coupling dynamics, which finds good agreement with empirical results. This work may shed light on the in-depth understanding of the interplay between the dynamics of epidemic spreading and information diffusion.

The spatial dissemination of COVID-19 and associated socio-economic consequences.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide with millions of lives claimed, human travel restricted and economic development halted. Leveraging city-level mobility and case data, our analysis shows that the spatial dissemination of COVID-19 can be well explained by a local diffusion process in the mobility network rather than a global diffusion process, indicating the effectiveness of the implemented disease prevention and control measures. Based on the constructed case prediction model, it is estimated that there could be distinct social consequences if the COVID-19 outbreak happened in different areas. During the epidemic control period, human mobility experienced substantial reductions and the mobility network underwent remarkable local and global structural changes toward containing the spread of COVID-19. Our work has important implications for the mitigation of disease and the evaluation of the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 on society.

Census of Twitter users: Scraping and describing the national network of South Korea.

Population-level national networks on social media are precious and essential for network science and behavioural science. This study collected a population-level Twitter network, based on both language and geolocation tags. We proposed a set of validation approaches to evaluate the validity of our datasets. Finally, we re-examined classical network and communication propositions (e.g., 80/20 rule, six degrees of separation) on the national network. Our dataset and strategy would flourish the data collection pool of population-level social networks and further develop the research of network analysis in digital media environment.

The Strength of Structural Diversity in Online Social Networks.

Understanding the way individuals are interconnected in social networks is of prime significance to predict their collective outcomes. Leveraging a large-scale dataset from a knowledge-sharing website, this paper presents an exploratory investigation of the way to depict structural diversity in directed networks and how it can be utilized to predict one's online social reputation. To capture the structural diversity of an individual, we first consider the number of weakly and strongly connected components in one's contact neighborhood and further take the coexposure network of social neighbors into consideration. We show empirical evidence that the structural diversity of an individual is able to provide valuable insights to predict personal online social reputation, and the inclusion of a coexposure network provides an additional ingredient to achieve that goal. After synthetically controlling several possible confounding factors through matching experiments, structural diversity still plays a nonnegligible role in the prediction of personal online social reputation. Our work constitutes one of the first attempts to empirically study structural diversity in directed networks and has practical implications for a range of domains, such as social influence and collective intelligence studies.

Who is Tracking Health on Mobile Devices: Behavioral Logfile Analysis in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Health apps on mobile devices provide an unprecedented opportunity for ordinary people to develop social connections revolving around health issues. With increasing penetration of mobile devices and well-recorded behavioral data on such devices, it is desirable to employ digital traces on mobile devices rather than self-reported measures to capture the behavioral patterns underlying the use of mobile health (mHealth) apps in a more direct and valid way. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the demographic predictors of the adoption of mHealth apps; (2) investigate the temporal pattern underlying the use of mHealth apps; and (3) explore the impacts of demographic variables, temporal features, and app genres on the use of mHealth apps. METHODS: Logfile data of mobile devices were collected from a representative panel of about 2500 users in Hong Kong. Users' mHealth app activities were analyzed. We first conducted a binary logistic regression analysis to uncover demographic predictors of users' adoption status. Then we utilized a multilevel negative binomial regression to examine the impacts of demographic characteristics, temporal features, and app genres on mHealth app use. RESULTS: It was found that 27.5% of mobile device users in Hong Kong adopt at least one genre of mHealth app. Adopters of mHealth apps tend to be female and better educated. However, demographic characteristics did not showcase the predictive powers on the use of mHealth apps, except for the gender effect (Bfemale vs Bmale=-0.18; P=.006). The use of mHealth apps demonstrates a significant temporal pattern, which is found to be moderately active during daytime and intensifying at weekends and at night. Such temporal patterns in mHealth apps use are moderated by individuals' demographic characteristics. Finally, demographic characteristics were also found to condition the use of different genres of mHealth apps. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest the importance of dynamic perspective in understanding users' mHealth app activities. mHealth app developers should consider more the demographic differences in temporal patterns of mHealth apps in the development of mHealth apps. Furthermore, our research also contributes to the promotion of mHealth apps by emphasizing the differences of usage needs for various groups of users.

Cohort trends in perceived Internet influence on political efficacy in Hong Kong.

The study explored overall and cohort-specific trends in Internet political efficacy from an age-period-cohort approach with a cross-sequential design. Perceived Internet influence on political efficacy is found to increase with age. Significant difference between Internet users and nonusers is also found in some cohorts. Online news reading and online chats/discussions have a positive impact in some cohorts.

The divided communities of shared concerns: mapping the intellectual structure of e-Health research in social science journals.

PURPOSE: Social scientific approach has become an important approach in e-Health studies over the past decade. However, there has been little systematical examination of what aspects of e-Health social scientists have studied and how relevant and informative knowledge has been produced and diffused by this line of inquiry. This study performed a systematic review of the body of e-Health literature in mainstream social science journals over the past decade by testing the applicability of a 5A categorization (i.e., access, availability, appropriateness, acceptability, and applicability), proposed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, as a framework for understanding social scientific research in e-Health. METHODS: This study used a quantitative, bottom-up approach to review the e-Health literature in social sciences published from 2000 to 2009. A total of 3005 e-Health studies identified from two social sciences databases (i.e., Social Sciences Citation Index and Arts & Humanities Citation Index) were analyzed with text topic modeling and structural analysis of co-word network, co-citation network, and scientific food web. RESULTS: There have been dramatic increases in the scale of e-Health studies in social sciences over the past decade in terms of the numbers of publications, journal outlets and participating disciplines. The results empirically confirm the presence of the 5A clusters in e-Health research, with the cluster of applicability as the dominant research area and the cluster of availability as the major knowledge producer for other clusters. The network analysis also reveals that the five distinctive clusters share much more in common in research concerns than what e-Health scholars appear to recognize. CONCLUSIONS: It is time to explicate and, more importantly, tap into the shared concerns cutting across the seemingly divided scholarly communities. In particular, more synergy exercises are needed to promote adherence of the field.

EvoRiver: Visual Analysis of Topic Coopetition on Social Media.

Cooperation and competition (jointly called "coopetition") are two modes of interactions among a set of concurrent topics on social media. How do topics cooperate or compete with each other to gain public attention? Which topics tend to cooperate or compete with one another? Who plays the key role in coopetition-related interactions? We answer these intricate questions by proposing a visual analytics system that facilitates the in-depth analysis of topic coopetition on social media. We model the complex interactions among topics as a combination of carry-over, coopetition recruitment, and coopetition distraction effects. This model provides a close functional approximation of the coopetition process by depicting how different groups of influential users (i.e., "topic leaders") affect coopetition. We also design EvoRiver, a time-based visualization, that allows users to explore coopetition-related interactions and to detect dynamically evolving patterns, as well as their major causes. We test our model and demonstrate the usefulness of our system based on two Twitter data sets (social topics data and business topics data).

Discussing Occupy Wall Street on Twitter: longitudinal network analysis of equality, emotion, and stability of public discussion.

To evaluate the quality of public discussion about social movements on Twitter and to understand the structural features and evolution of longitudinal discussion networks, we analyze tweets about the Occupy Wall Street movement posted over the course of 16 days by investigating the relationship between inequality, emotion, and the stability of online discussion. The results reveal that (1) the discussion is highly unequal for both initiating discussions and receiving conversations; (2) the stability of the discussion is much higher for receivers than for initiators; (3) the inequality of online discussions moderates the stability of online discussions; and (4) on an individual level, there is no significant relationship between emotion and political discussion. The implications help evaluate the quality of public discussion, and to understand the relationship between online discussion and social movements.

Visual analysis of topic competition on social media.

How do various topics compete for public attention when they are spreading on social media? What roles do opinion leaders play in the rise and fall of competitiveness of various topics? In this study, we propose an expanded topic competition model to characterize the competition for public attention on multiple topics promoted by various opinion leaders on social media. To allow an intuitive understanding of the estimated measures, we present a timeline visualization through a metaphoric interpretation of the results. The visual design features both topical and social aspects of the information diffusion process by compositing ThemeRiver with storyline style visualization. ThemeRiver shows the increase and decrease of competitiveness of each topic. Opinion leaders are drawn as threads that converge or diverge with regard to their roles in influencing the public agenda change over time. To validate the effectiveness of the visual analysis techniques, we report the insights gained on two collections of Tweets: the 2012 United States presidential election and the Occupy Wall Street movement.