Cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer in high-risk areas of China: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk-stratified endoscopic screening (RSES) has been suggested to improve screening efficiency. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of RSES and identify the optimal risk-score thresholds for once in a lifetime esophageal cancer (EC) screening in high-risk areas of China. METHODS: From a healthcare system perspective, a Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of 13 RSES strategies (under different score thresholds for EC risk), universal endoscopic screening strategy, and no screening. Six cohorts of 100,000 participants with different screening ages (40-65 years) were followed up to age 77 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), that is, incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, was the primary outcome. RESULTS: Compared with no screening, as the score threshold was lowered, additionally gained QALYs increased, with 49 to 172 QALYs and 329 to 1147 QALYs gained from screening performed at 40 and 65 years, respectively. RSES in all age scenarios had ICERs less than the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and 11 RSES strategies with score thresholds of 3 to 13 had lower ICERs than universal endoscopic screening. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of the GDP per capita (U.S.$10,276/QALY), RSES at score thresholds of 8 or 9 and universal endoscopic screening were the most cost-effective strategies at ages <55 and ≥55 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: RSES is cost-effective, and score thresholds of 8 or 9 should be considered for screening ages <55 years. For individuals aged ≥55 years, universal endoscopic screening is the optimal strategy.

Modelling the prevalence of hepatitis B towards eliminating it as a major public health threat in China.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) requires reduction in the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) in children to 0.1% by 2030, a key indicator for eliminating viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. Whether and how China can achieve this target remains unknown, although great achievements have been made. We aimed to predict the decline of HBsAg prevalence in China and identify key developments needed to achieve the target. METHODS: An age- and time-dependent dynamic compartmental model was constructed based on the natural history of HBV infection and the national history and current status of hepatitis B control. The model was run from 2006 to 2040 to predict the decline of HBsAg prevalence under three scenarios including maintaining current interventions (status quo), status quo + peripartum antiviral prophylaxis (PAP, recommended by WHO in 2020), and scaling up current interventions + PAP. RESULTS: Under the status quo, HBsAg prevalence would decrease steadily in all age groups, but the WHO's target of 0.1% prevalence in children aged < 5 years would not be achieved until 2037. The results are robust according to sensitivity analyses. Under the status quo + PAP, the HBsAg prevalence of children aged < 5 years would significantly decrease with the introduction of PAP, and the higher the successful interruption coverage is achieved by PAP, the more significant the decline. However, even if the successful interruption coverage reaches 90% by 2030, the 0.1% prevalence target would not be met until 2031. Under the scaling up current interventions + PAP, combined with scale-up of current interventions, the WHO's 0.1% target would be achieved on time or one year in advance if PAP is introduced and the successful interruption coverage is scaled up to 80% or 90% by 2030, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It is difficult for China to achieve the WHO's target of 0.1% HBsAg prevalence in children by 2030 by maintaining current interventions. PAP may play an important role to shorten the time to achieve the target. A comprehensive scale-up of available interventions including PAP will ensure that China achieves the target on schedule.

Evaluating the time of HIV infection, diagnosis and treatment delays based on HIV notification data in Northwest China, 2008­19.

BACKGROUND: Timely diagnosis and treatment are crucial for reducing HIV transmission;therefore, estimating the time from HIV infection to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation becomes particularly important for people living with HIV. METHODS: We used a well-characterised CD4 depletion model to estimate the time from HIV infection to initiation of ART and the rate of delayed HIV diagnosis (infection to diagnosis >1year) and treatment initiation (diagnosis to treatment >1year), based on HIV notification data for adults (aged ≥18years) in Xi'an city, China, during 2008-19. RESULTS: Overall, 7402 reported HIV diagnoses were included. We estimated more than two-thirds of HIV infections remained undiagnosed (66.1%, 9489/14 345). The estimated proportion of HIV diagnoses that were delayed (>1year) was 80.3% (5941/7402) during 2008-19, and it increased from 72.7% (32/44) in 2008 to 83.5% (908/1088) in 2019. In contrast, the proportion of cases with delayed treatment (>1year) was 13.1% (971/7402) during 2008-19, and it reduced from 75.0% (33/44) in 2008 to 1.5% (16/1088) in 2019. The estimated median time from HIV infection to diagnosis increased from 5.05 (IQR, 0.27-8.15) years to 5.81 (IQR, 2.31-10.28) years, whereas the time from diagnosis to ART initiation reduced from 3.06 (IQR, 1.01-5.20) years in 2008 to 0.07 (IQR, 0.04-0.12) year in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Early treatment after diagnosis has significantly improved, but timely diagnosis of HIV infections may still require further improvement. The estimated proportion of undiagnosed HIV cases remains high in 2019 in Xi'an city and is likely to impede effective control.

Modelling the impact of universal influenza vaccines on seasonal influenza with different subtypes.

Several candidates of universal influenza vaccine (UIV) have entered phase III clinical trials, which are expected to improve the willingness and coverage of the population substantially. The impact of UIV on the seasonal influenza epidemic in low influenza vaccination coverage regions like China remains unclear. We proposed a new compartmental model involving the transmission of different influenza subtypes to evaluate the effects of UIV. We calibrated the model by weekly surveillance data of influenza in Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, during 2010/11-2018/19 influenza seasons. We calculated the percentage of averted infections under 2-month (September to October) and 6-month (September to the next February) vaccination patterns with varied UIV effectiveness and coverage in each influenza season, compared with no UIV scenario. A total of 195 766 influenza-like illness (ILI) cases were reported during the nine influenza seasons (2010/11-2018/19), of which the highest ILI cases were among age group 0-4 (59.60%) years old, followed by 5-14 (25.22%), 25-59 (8.19%), 15-24 (3.75%) and ⩾60 (3.37%) years old. The influenza-positive rate for all age groups among ILI cases was 17.51%, which is highest among 5-14 (23.75%) age group and followed by 25-59 (16.44%), 15-24 (16.42%), 0-4 (14.66%) and ⩾60 (13.98%) age groups, respectively. Our model showed that UIV might greatly avert influenza infections irrespective of subtypes in each influenza season. For example, in the 2018/19 influenza season, 2-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness (50%) and coverage (10%), and high UIV effectiveness (75%) and coverage (30%) could avert 41.6% (95% CI 27.8-55.4%) and 83.4% (80.9-85.9%) of influenza infections, respectively; 6-month vaccination pattern with low and high UIV effectiveness and coverage could avert 32.0% (15.9-48.2%) and 74.2% (69.7-78.7%) of influenza infections, respectively. It would need 11.4% (7.9-15.0%) of coverage to reduce half of the influenza infections for 2-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness and 8.5% (5.0-11.2%) of coverage with high UIV effectiveness, while it would need 15.5% (8.9-20.7%) of coverage for 6-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness and 11.2% (6.5-15.0%) of coverage with high UIV effectiveness. We conclude that UIV could significantly reduce the influenza infections even for low UIV effectiveness and coverage. The 2-month vaccination pattern could avert more influenza infections than the 6-month vaccination pattern irrespective of influenza subtype and UIV effectiveness and coverage.

Effects of New York's Executive Order on Face Mask Use on COVID-19 Infections and Mortality: A Modeling Study.

There is growing evidence on the effect of face mask use in controlling the spread of COVID-19. However, few studies have examined the effect of local face mask policies on the pandemic. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in New York City (NYC), which was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We used data on daily and cumulative COVID-19 infections and deaths from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to calibrate and validate our model. We then used the model to assess the effect of the executive order on face mask use on infections and deaths due to COVID-19 in NYC. Our results showed that the executive order on face mask use was estimated to avert 99,517 (95% CIs 72,723-126,312) COVID-19 infections and 7978 (5692-10,265) deaths in NYC. If the executive order was implemented 1 week earlier (on April 10), the averted infections and deaths would be 111,475 (81,593-141,356) and 9017 (6446-11,589), respectively. If the executive order was implemented 2 weeks earlier (on April 3 when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended face mask use), the averted infections and deaths would be 128,598 (94,373-162,824) and 10,515 (7540-13,489), respectively. Our study provides public health practitioners and policymakers with evidence on the importance of implementing face mask policies in local areas as early as possible to control the spread of COVID-19 and reduce mortality.

The associations of air pollution and socioeconomic factors with esophageal cancer in China based on a spatiotemporal analysis.

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in China have incurred serious air pollution and consequent health concerns. In this study, we examined the modifying effects of urbanization and socioeconomic factors on the association between PM2.5 and incidence of esophageal cancer (EC) in 2000-2015 using spatiotemporal techniques and a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model. The results showed a downward trend of EC and high-risk areas aggregated in North China and Huai River Basin. In addition, a stronger association between PM2.5 and incidence was observed in low urbanization group, and the association was stronger for females than males. When exposure time-windows were adjusted as 0, 5, 10, 15 years, the incidence risk increased by 2.48% (95% CI: 2.23%, 2.73%), 2.20% (95% CI: 1.91%, 2.49%), 2.18% (95% CI%: 1.92%, 2.43%), 1.87% (95% CI%:1.64, 2.10%) for males, respectively and 4.03% (95% CI: 3.63%, 4.43%), 2.20% (95% CI: 1.91%, 2.49%), 3.97% (95% CI: 3.54%, 4.41%), 3.06% (95% CI: 2.71%, 3.41%) for females, respectively. The findings indicated people in low urbanization group faced with a stronger EC risk caused by PM2.5, which contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of combating EC challenges related to PM2.5 pollution.

Evaluating the independent influence of sexual transmission on HBV infection in China: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term impact of sexual transmission on the hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in China remains unclear. This study aims to estimate the independent influence of sexual transmission on HBV infection. METHODS: Based on the natural history of HBV infection and three national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we developed an age- and sex-specific discrete model to describe the transmission dynamics of HBV. The initial conditions of the model were determined according to the age- and sex-specific national serosurvey data in 1992. Based on the national survey data of hepatitis B in 1992 and 2006, by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, we estimated the age- and sex-specific seroclearance rates of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and the horizontal transmission rates as well as their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Then we used the age- and sex-specific national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in 2014 to test the accuracy of our model-based estimation. Finally, we evaluated the independent impact of sexual transmission on HBV infection and discussed the long-term effect of promotion of condom use in China. RESULTS: We estimated that the annual rates of HBsAg seroclearance for males and females aged 1-59 years were respectively 1.04% (95% CI, 0.49-1.59%) and 1.92% (95% CI, 1.11-2.73%). Due to sexual transmission, in 2014, the total number of chronic HBV infections in people aged 0-100 years increased 292,581, of which males increased 189,200 and females increased 103,381. In 2006, the acute HBV infections due to sexual transmission accounted for 24.76% (male: 31.33%, female: 17.94%) and in 2014, which accounted for 34.59% (male: 42.93%, female: 25.73%). However, if the condom usage rate was increased by 10% annually starting in 2019, then compared with current practice, the total number of acute HBV infections from 2019 to 2035 would be reduced by 16.68% (male: 21.49%, female: 11.93%). The HBsAg prevalence in people aged 1-59 years in 2035 would be reduced to 2.01% (male: 2.40%, female: 1.58%). CONCLUSIONS: Sexual transmission has become the predominant route of acute HBV infection in China, especially for men. The promotion of condom use plays a significant role in reducing the cases of acute HBV infection.

Investigating the relationship between reopening the economy and implementing control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an enormous burden on population health and the economy around the world. Although most cities in the United States have reopened their economies from previous lockdowns, it was not clear how the magnitude of different control measures-such as face mask use and social distancing-may affect the timing of reopening the economy for a local region. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between reopening dates and control measures and identify the conditions under which a city can be reopened safely. STUDY DESIGN: This was a mathematical modeling study. METHODS: We developed a dynamic compartment model to capture the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in New York City. We estimated model parameters from local COVID-19 data. We conducted three sets of policy simulations to investigate how different reopening dates and magnitudes of control measures would affect the COVID-19 epidemic. RESULTS: The model estimated that maintaining social contact at 80% of the prepandemic level and a 50% face mask usage would prevent a major surge of COVID-19 after reopening. If social distancing were completely relaxed after reopening, face mask usage would need to be maintained at nearly 80% to prevent a major surge. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to social distancing and increased face mask usage are keys to prevent a major surge after a city reopens its economy. The findings from our study can help policymakers identify the conditions under which a city can be reopened safely.

Colorectal cancer burden and trends: Comparison between China and major burden countries in the world.

OBJECTIVE: To summarize the colorectal cancer (CRC) burden and trend in the world, and compare the difference of CRC burden between other countries and China. METHODS: Incidence and mortality data were extracted from the GLOBOCAN2018 and Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Age-specific incidence trend was conducted by Joinpoint analysis and average annual percent changes were calculated. RESULTS: About 1.85 million new cases and 0.88 million deaths were expected in 2018 worldwide, including 0.52 million (28.20%) new cases and 0.25 million (28.11%) deaths in China. Hungary had the highest age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in the world, while for China, the incidence and mortality rates were only half of that. CRC incidence and mortality were highly correlated with human development index (HDI). Unlike the rapid increase in Republic of Korea and the downward trend in Canada and Australia, the age-standardized incidence rates by world standard population in China and Norway were rising gradually. The age-specific incidence rate in the age group of 50-59 years in China was increasing rapidly, while in Republic of Korea and Canada, the fastest growing age group was 30-39 years. CONCLUSIONS: The variations of CRC burden reflect the difference of risk factors, as well as levels of HDI and screening (early detection activities). The burden of CRC in China is high, and the incidence of CRC continues to increase, which may lead to a sustained increase in the burden of CRC in China in the future. Screening should be expanded to control CRC, and focused on young people in China.

Prevalence and protective factors of HIV and syphilis infection among men who have sex with men in Northwest China.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) continue to be disproportionately impacted by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and syphilis in China. Little is known about HIV and syphilis infections among MSM in Xi'an, a developing city in Northwest China. A cross-sectional study with recruitment via snowball sampling was conducted to collect HIV and syphilis infection status and risk factors among MSM in Xi'an between April 2013 to December 2016. Among the 5000 participants, the mean age was 29.0 years (SD 7.7) and the prevalence of HIV, syphilis, and coinfection was 6.5%, 2.2%, and 0.4%, respectively. There was no significant change in HIV prevalence from 2013 to 2016, while the prevalence of syphilis and coinfection showed a downward trend. Multiple logistic regression analyses found that being over 25 years old (OR = 1.647), junior high school/middle school education and below (OR = 3.085), with a sexual role of passive or versatile (OR = 3.300; OR = 2.337), rush poppers use during the last 6 months (OR = 1.660) and syphilis infection (OR = 2.235) were more likely to acquire HIV infection, whereas used condoms in the last episode of anal sex (OR = 0.572) and tested HIV antibody previously (OR = 0.252) were protective factors for HIV infection. HIV prevalence among MSM in Xi'an was stable, whereas the prevalence of syphilis and coinfection showed a downward trend. Interventions to promote HIV and sexually transmitted disease testing and condom use should be strengthened, especially for MSM with low education.

Estimation of the impact of changing drug-use trend on HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis epidemics among people who use synthetic drug-only, polydrug and heroin-only during 2005-2035 in China: modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: The rapid expansion of the recreational drug market becomes a global health concern. It is worrying that the bacterial and viral infection epidemics linking to drug use may worsen accordingly. This study aimed to estimate the impacts of changing trend and behaviours of using heroin only, synthetic drug (SD) only and polydrug (using SD and heroin concurrently) on HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and syphilis epidemics among people who use drugs in China by 2035. METHODS: We constructed a compartmental model to estimate HIV, HCV and syphilis epidemics in the dynamic drug-use trend by three scenarios: SD-only use, heroin-only use and polydrug use based on Monte Carlo simulations. The parameters for the model were collected from a comprehensive literature search. RESULTS: Our model estimated that polydrug use led to the highest HIV and HCV prevalence among three drug-use patterns. The prevalences were projected to increase from 10.9% (95% CI 10.2% to 11.5%) and 61.7% (95% CI 59.4% to 62.5%) in 2005 to 19.0% (95% CI 17.3% to 20.7%) and 69.1% (95% CI 67.3% to 69.5%), respectively, in 2035 among people using polydrug. Similarly, HIV and HCV prevalence in the SD-only group were projected to increase from 0.4% (95% CI 0.3% to 0.4%) and 19.5% (95% CI 19.4% to 21.7%) to 1.8% (95% CI 1.4 to 2.1%) and 33.7% (95% CI 33.2% to 34.9%) in 2005-2035. Conversely, HIV prevalence in the heroin-only group was projected to decrease from 8.0% (95% CI 7.6% to 8.1%) to 2.2% (95% CI 2.0% to 2.3%) in 2005-2035. Syphilis prevalence was estimated to remain unchanged in all population groups within this time frame. It was projected that the proportion of HIV transmitted by sexual transmission will increase compared with unsafe injection transmission in all people who use drugs from 2005 to 2035. CONCLUSION: Our modelling suggests that polydrug use is projected to lead to the highest HIV and HCV disease burden by 2035, and the proportion of HIV transmitted by sexual transmission will increase. Current HIV intervention among people using heroin seems effective according to our estimation.

The long-term population impact of endoscopic screening programmes on disease burdens of gastric cancer in China: A mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer (GC) incidence and mortality in China remained high due to delayed diagnosis and accounted for about half of the world's GC cases and deaths. Early detection with endoscopic screening and consequent timely treatment can significantly improve survival. This study aimed to explore the long-term population impact of endoscopic screening on national GC disease burdens in China. METHODS: Most of previous studies investigated the disease burdens of cancer using Markov model or age-period-cohort (APC) model, which are difficult to estimate the population size of undiagnosed cases. In this paper, we proposed a new dynamic compartmental model based on GC natural history and calibrated model outputs to diagnosed GC cases and GC-related death counts using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We investigated the impact of screening strategies with various coverage (10%, 40%, 70%) and frequency (every 1, 3, 5 years) on disease burdens. RESULTS: We estimated that 2.22 (95%CI: 1.97-2.47) million Chinese are living with GC in 2019, among which, 42.7% (40.3-45.0%) remained undiagnosed. Without systematic screening, we projected 10.46 (9.07-11.86) million incident cases and 7.35 (6.59-8.11) million GC-related deaths over the next 30 years (2019-2049). Screening with coverage rate at 10%, 40%, 70% every 3 years could prevent 0.85 (0.63-1.06), 2.32 (1.79-2.86), and 3.04 (2.38-3.70) million incident cases, and prevent 1.17 (1.01-1.32), 3.08 (2.70-3.46), and 3.93 (3.46-4.40) million deaths respectively, compared with 'no screening' scenario. Screening would substantially increase the number of diagnosed GC cases within the first three years of program initiation, but this number would quickly reduce below 'no screening' scenario. Three-yearly screening at the above coverage rates would reduce the proportion of undiagnosed GC cases to 38.8% (36.9-40.7%), 25.5% (23.4-27.6%), and 17.8% (16.0-19.6%) by 2049, respectively. Delaying implementation of the screening program would substantially reduce its effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Initiating national endoscopic screening programmes would likely have a major effect on reducing GC incidence and mortality in China. Health resources should be substantially increased and directed to treatment of GC to cope with the initial rise in diagnosed GC cases.

Initial results from a multi-center population-based cluster randomized trial of esophageal and gastric cancer screening in China.

BACKGROUND: We initiated the first multi-center cluster randomized trial of endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer and gastric cancer in China. The objective of the study was to report the baseline screening findings in this trial. METHODS: We recruited a total of 345 eligible clusters from seven screening centers. In the intervention group, participants from high-risk areas were screened by endoscopy; in non-high-risk areas, high-risk individuals were identified using a questionnaire and advised for endoscopy. Lugol's iodine staining in esophagus and indigo carmine dye in stomach were performed to aid in the diagnosis of suspicious lesions. The primary outcomes of this study were the detection rate (proportion of positive cases among individuals who underwent endoscopic screening) and early detection rate (the proportion of positive cases with stage 0/I among all positive cases). RESULTS: A total of 149,956 eligible subjects were included. The detection rate was 0.7% in esophagus and 0.8% in stomach, respectively. Compared with non-high-risk areas, the detection rates in high-risk areas were higher, both in esophagus (0.9% vs. 0.1%) and in stomach (0.9% vs. 0.3%). The same difference was found for early-detection rate (esophagus: 92.9% vs. 53.3%; stomach: 81.5% vs. 33.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic yield of both esophagus and stomach were higher in high-risk areas than in non-high-risk areas, even though in non-high-risk areas, only high-risk individuals were screened. Our study may provide important clues for evaluating and improving the effectiveness of upper-endoscopic screening in China. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Protocol Registration System in Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR-EOR-16008577. Registered 01 June 2016-Retrospectively registered, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=14372.

Health-related quality of life and health utility score of patients with gastric cancer: A multi-centre cross-sectional survey in China.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and health state utility scores of gastric cancer patients in daily life at different clinical stages after treatment, and to explore influencing factors associated with HRQoL. METHODS: Gastric cancer patients discharged from hospitals and healthy controls identified by screening were recruited. The three-level EQ-5D was employed to assess HRQoL and was scored using two Chinese-specific tariffs published in 2014 and 2018. RESULTS: A total of 1,399 patients and 2,179 healthy controls were recruited. The likelihood of reporting problems in the five dimensions for patients was 4.0-23.8 times higher than controls. Based on the 2014/2018 tariff, the mean EQ-5D utility score was 0.321/0.163 lower than controls, and the mean utility scores of each patient subgroup were 0.077/0.039 (high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia/carcinoma in situ), 0.254/0.121 (Stage I), 0.249/0.123 (Stage II), 0.353/0.182 (Stage III) and 0.591/0.309 (Stage IV) lower than controls (all statistically significant). Age, occupation, duration of illness, other chronic disease status and therapeutic regimen had a significant impact upon different aspects of HRQoL in patients. CONCLUSIONS: Gastric cancer significantly impaired patients' HRQoL in daily life after treatment. More advanced cancer stages were associated with larger decrements on health state utility.

Cost-effectiveness of antiviral treatment after resection in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) imposes a heavy disease burden on China due to its high morbidity and mortality. China accounts for about 50% of the total new cases and deaths worldwide. Most cases are related to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and are associated with cirrhosis at diagnosis. Antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) after resection in HBV-related HCC can reduce recurrence and improve survival. Such treatment is in fact recommended by Chinese guidelines. However, cost-effectiveness studies regarding this treatment are rare. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of NA treatment after resection in HBV-related HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis. A Markov model was constructed to simulate HBV-related HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis and detectable HBV DNA, with or without NA treatment after resection, followed up over their lifetime. Costs, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated for each strategy from the societal perspective. The parameters of the model were derived from published studies, government documents, and our surveys. Sensitivity analyses were used to explore the impact of parameters on the uncertainty of the results. NA treatment produced 4.22 QALYs, costing $39,898, while non-NA treatment achieved 2.80 QALYs, costing $16,048. The ICER of NA treatment versus non-NA treatment was $16,848/QALY, which was between 2 and 3 times gross domestic product per capita and was therefore deemed cost-effective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed that NA treatment was cost-effective, with a probability of 0.852. CONCLUSION: NA treatment after liver resection was likely cost-effective in HBV-related HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2018).

Effect of early highly active antiretroviral therapy on viral suppression among newly diagnosed men who have sex with men living with human immunodeficiency virus in Xi'an, China.

BACKGROUND: The number of men who have sex with men (MSM) living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in China has increased rapidly and thus immediate highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) after diagnosis was implemented as a strategy to reduce the HIV transmission. METHODS: MSM who were diagnosed with HIV and received HAART between 2013 to 2015 in Xi'an were divided into three groups (>350, 200-350, and <200 cell/µL) according to their baseline CD4+ T cell count. The time of follow-up was calculated from the first date of receiving HAART to December 31, 2016. The CD4+ T cell count was detected with 1 week before or after HAART. The plasma viral loads were tested after 1, 2, and 3 years of treatment. RESULTS: Of 1442 subjects who received HAART, 690 (47.9%) cases were in >350 cell/µL group, whereas 400 (27.7%) cases and 352 (24.4%) cases were in the 200-350 cell/µL group and <200 cell/µL group, respectively. After 1 year of treatment, the viral suppression rate in the <200 cell/µL group was 91.1%, which was significantly lower than the other two groups. The logistic regression results show that the >350 cell/µL group and 200-350 cell/µL group predicted higher viral suppression rates. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline CD4+ T cell count more than 350 cell/µL can improve viral suppression among MSM living with HIV. Furthermore, to reduce the transmission risk, the treatment compliance of people living with HIV with high CD4+ T cell levels should be improved, and their diagnosis to the treatment time should be decreased.

MicroRNA-155 inversely correlates with esophageal cancer progression through regulating tumor-associated macrophage FGF2 expression.

Esophageal cancer (EC) is one of the most common malignancies with high incidence and mortality. Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) in the tumor microenvironment have been linked to the accelerated tumor progression. MicroRNAs (miR) are 19-25 nucleotide-long, noncoding RNA molecules, functioning as modulators of gene expression, and mediate a variety of biological functions, including tumor growth. In the present study, the effects and molecular mechanism of miR-155 in TAMs isolated from EC were explored. The expression of miR-155 and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF2) in EC tissues and cell lines were analyzed using reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (qRT-PCR) and western blot assays. TAMs were also transfected with the described constructs. Following, the culture medium from TAMs was collected for further analysis. The released FGF2, and inflammatory cytokines were quantified using ELISA. The cell viability, migrated and invaded levels were calculated through Cell Counting kit-8 (CCK8), and transwell analysis. Moreover, human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) vasculature formation was determined using matrigel angiogenesis analysis. The results indicated that miR-155 expression was decreased in EC tissues and cell lines, while FGF2 expression was increased in comparison to those in the normal control group. Moreover, miR-155 mimics transfection up-regulated tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α), interleukin (IL)-12 and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), while down-regulated IL-10, Arginase-1 (Arg-1) and IL-22 levels in the culture medium from TAMs. And enhancing miR-155 expression in TAMs suppressed the cell viability, migration and invasion of ECA109 cells and reduced the angiogenesis. Nevertheless, over-expressing FGF2 abolished the role of miR-155 in cancer cell survival, migration, invasion as well as angiogenesis. Our findings indicated that miR-155-regulated FGF2 expression from TAMs suppressed EC cell proliferation, migration, invasion and inhibited vasculature formation. Thus, miR-155-modulated FGF2 might be a potential therapeutic target to prevent EC progression.

A Literature Review of Mathematical Models of Hepatitis B Virus Transmission Applied to Immunization Strategies From 1994 to 2015.

A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of infectious disease is an important theoretical epidemiology method, which has been used to simulate the prevalence of hepatitis B and evaluate different immunization strategies. However, differences lie in the mathematical processes of modeling HBV transmission in published studies, not only in the model structure, but also in the estimation of certain parameters. This review reveals that the dynamics model of HBV transmission only simulates the spread of HBV in the population from the macroscopic point of view and highlights several main shortcomings in the model structure and parameter estimation. First, age-dependence is the most important characteristic in the transmission of HBV, but an age-structure model and related age-dependent parameters were not adopted in some of the compartmental models describing HBV transmission. In addition, the numerical estimation of the force of HBV infection did not give sufficient weight to the age and time factors and is not suitable using the incidence data. Lastly, the current mathematical models did not well reflect the details of the factors of HBV transmission, such as migration from high or intermediate HBV endemic areas to low endemic areas and the kind of HBV genotype. All of these shortcomings may lead to unreliable results. When the mathematical model closely reflects the fact of hepatitis B spread, the results of the model fit will provide valuable information for controlling the transmission of hepatitis B.

Psychometric evaluation of the Chinese version of the Child Health Utility 9D (CHU9D-CHN): a school-based study in China.

PURPOSE: The Child Health Utility 9D (CHU9D), a new generic preference-based health-related quality of life (HRQoL) instrument, was developed specifically for the application in cost-effectiveness analyses of treatments and interventions for children and adolescents. The main objective of this study was to examine the psychometric property of the Chinese version of CHU9D (CHU9D-CHN) in a large school-based sample in China. METHODS: Data were collected using a multi-stage sampling method from third-to-ninth-grade students in Shaanxi Province, China. Participants self-completed a hard-copy questionnaire including the CHU9D-CHN instrument, the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 Generic Core Scales (PedsQL), information on socio-demographic characteristics and self-reported health status. The psychometric properties of the CHU9D-CHN, including the internal consistency, 2-week test-retest reliability, convergent and known-groups validity were studied. RESULTS: A total of 1912 students participated in the survey. The CHU9D-CHN internal consistency and test-retest reliability were good to excellent with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.77 and an intra-class correlation coefficient of 0.65, respectively. The CHU9D utility scores moderately correlated with the PedsQL total scores (r = .57, P < .001), demonstrating good convergent validity. Difference of the CHU9D utility scores among the different participants with levels of self-reported general health, health services utilisation and left-behind status demonstrated good construct validity. CONCLUSION: The findings demonstrated adequate psychometric performance for the CHU9D-CHN. The CHU9D-CHN was a satisfactory, reliable and valid instrument to measure and value HRQoL for children and adolescents in China.

Flexible flatfoot of 6-13-year-old children: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: This cross-sectional study aims to investigate the flexible flatfoot (FFF) prevalence and related factors in school-aged children. METHODS: A total of 1059 children aged 6-13 years were included. Dynamic footprints according to the FootScan system were collected from both feet. The relationship of FFF with age, gender, side, and body mass index (BMI) was investigated. RESULTS: FFF percentage decreased from 39.5% at 6 years to 11.8% at 12 years and reached a plateau at 12-13 years. Overweight (OR 1.35, 95%CI 1.03-1.77, P = 0.03) and obese (OR 2.43, 95%CI 1.81-3.26, P＜0.01) showed a positive correlation with percentage of FFF children. No correlation was found between FFF prevalence and gender or side. CONCLUSIONS: FFF prevalence decreases with age and reaches a plateau at 12-13 years. Moreover, FFF prevalence is positively correlated with increased BMI and body height.