Psoriasis-related treatment exposure and hospitalization or in-hospital mortality due to COVID-19 during the first and second wave of the pandemic: cohort study of 1 326 312 patients in France.

BACKGROUND: Data on treatment exposures for psoriasis and poor COVID-19 outcomes are limited. OBJECTIVES: To assess the risk of hospitalization or in-hospital mortality due to COVID-19 by treatment exposure in patients with psoriasis. METHODS: All adults with psoriasis registered in the French national health-insurance (Système National des Données de Santé, SNDS) database between 2008 and 2019 were eligible. Two study periods were considered: 15 February to 30 June 2020 and 1 October 2020 to 31 January 2021, the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in France, respectively. Patients were classified according to their baseline treatment: biologics, nonbiologics, topicals or no treatment. The primary endpoint was hospitalization for COVID-19 using Cox models with inverse probability of treatment weighting. The secondary endpoint was in-hospital mortality due to COVID-19. RESULTS: We identified 1 326 312 patients with psoriasis (mean age 59 years; males, 48%). During the first study period, 3871 patients were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 759 (20%) died; during the second period 3603 were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 686 (19%) died. In the propensity score-weighted Cox models, risk of hospitalization for COVID-19 was associated with exposure to topicals or nonbiologics [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 1·11 (1·04-1·20) and 1·27 (1·09-1·48), respectively] during the first period, and with all exposure types, during the second period. None of the exposure types was associated with in-hospital mortality due to COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Systemic treatments for psoriasis (including biologics) were not associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality due to COVID-19. These results support maintaining systemic treatment for psoriasis during the pandemic.

[Chronic bronchitis: prevalence and quality of life. Analysis of data from the French Health Interview Survey 2002-2003]. / Bronchite chronique: prévalence et qualité de vie.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic bronchitis is associated with an increased risk of COPD and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) impairment. The objectives of the study were to estimate the prevalence of chronic bronchitis and to describe its relations with quality of life. METHODS: The French Health Interview Survey was conducted in 2003 in a representative sample of households. Data were collected during an interviewer's visits to the home. Respiratory symptoms and HRQoL (SF-36) were assessed in 9,050 adults aged 45 years and older using a self-administered questionnaire. RESULTS: The prevalence of chronic bronchitis was estimated at 3.5%. Chronic bronchitis was associated with an impaired physical component summary score after adjusting for sex, age and dyspnoea. It was associated with a reduced mental component summary score (MCS) among men. In women, this association was only significant in the absence of dyspnoea. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of chronic bronchitis was 3.5% among adults aged 45 years and older. Chronic bronchitis was associated with impairment in health-related quality of life.

[Five year survival for lung cancer patients managed in general hospitals]. / Survie à cinq ans des cancers bronchiques primitifs dans les centres hospitaliers généraux.

INTRODUCTION: In 2000 the College of Pulmonologists of General Hospitals undertook an epidemiological study (KBP-2000-CPHG) enrolling all new cases of histologically confirmed lung cancer managed in general hospitals. This paper reports the five year survival in these cases. METHODS: Vital status was available for 5447 out of 5667 patients included in the original study. The effect of different prognostic factors on mortality was assessed. RESULTS: At 5 years 567 patients (10.4%) were still alive. Median survival for the 4880 (89.6%) deceased patients was 7 months. Univariate analysis identified age, smoking history, performance status, histological type and disease stage (TMN classification) as determinants of survival. For non-small cell lung cancer (n=4885) multivariate analysis identified five predictive factors for mortality - age, gender histological type, performance status and stage. CONCLUSIONS: Five year survival in lung cancer continues to be poor. As the risk factors for poor outcome at the time of diagnosis are not modifiable and pending the results of screening studies reduction in mortality must rest on primary prevention.

Predictors of outcomes in COPD exacerbation cases presenting to the emergency department.

The aim of the present prospective multicentric study was to develop a simple rule for the prediction of poor outcome in patients presenting to emergency departments with initially non-life threatening-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations in a real-life setting. All patients with an acute exacerbation of COPD visiting the emergency departments of 103 hospitals during a 3-month period were included, except those who immediately required intensive care unit admission and/or ventilatory support. The data collected included patient characteristics, in-hospital outcomes (mortality and length of stay) and mode of discharge (unsupported or need for post-hospital assistance). The in-hospital mortality rate was 7.4% (59 out of 794). Independent prognostic factors were age, number of clinical signs of severity (among cyanosis, impaired neurological status, lower limb oedema, asterixis and use of accessory inspiratory or expiratory muscles) and dyspnoea grade in the stable state. The need for post-hospital support was also predicted by female sex. In order to construct and validate a prediction score for mortality based on these items, patients were randomly allocated to a derivation and a validation cohort. The prediction score showed good discrimination, with a c-statistic of 0.79 in the derivation cohort and 0.83 in the validation cohort. Thus simple purely clinical factors can reliably predict the risk of death and requirement for post-hospital support in an initially non-life threatening-acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Their use needs to be prospectively validated.

Thromboembolic risk after lumbar spine surgery: a cohort study on 325 000 French patients.

Essentials The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after lumbar spine surgery (LBS) is not precisely known. More than 320 000 patients who underwent LBS in France between 2009 and 2014 were followed-up. The overall risk of VTE after LBS is less than 1% but modulated by patient and procedural factors. Surgical device implantation, anterior approach and complex surgery increase the risk of VTE. SUMMARY: Background Postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a severe complication, the risk of which after lumbar spine surgery (LBS) is not precisely known. Objective To estimate the incidence of VTE after LBS, and to identify individual and surgical risk factors. Methods All patients aged >18 years who underwent LBS in France between 2009 and 2014 were identified. Among 477 024 patients screened, exclusions concerned recent VTE or surgery, and multiple surgeries during the same hospital stay. Results In 323 737 patients (mean age 52.9 years, 51.4% male), we observed 2911 events (0.91%) after a median time of 12 days (Q1-Q3: 5-72 days). The multivariate adjusted Cox model showed increased risks associated with age (4% per year of age; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8-4.3), obesity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.32, 95% CI 1.18-1.46), active cancer (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.5-1.82), previous thromboembolism (HR 5.41, 95% CI 4.74-6.17), severe paralysis (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.17-1.84), renal disease (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.04-1.6), psychiatric disease (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.1-1.32), use of antidepressants (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03-1.24), use of contraceptives (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.19-2.03), extended surgery for scoliosis (HR 3.61, 95% CI 2.96-4.4), implantation of pedicular screws with a 'dose-effect' association, and an anterior approach (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.6-2.43) or a combined approach (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.44-2.84). Conclusions The overall VTE risk after LBS is moderate (< 1%) but is widely modulated by several easily identifiable risk factors. The surgical community should be aware of this heterogeneity, adapt prevention according to patients and to the procedure, and use drug prophylaxis in the event of a high risk being present.

Dietary iron intake and serum ferritin in relation to 7.5 years structure and function of large arteries in the SUVIMAX cohort.

AIM: Few studies have investigated the relationship between iron stores and measures of atherosclerosis. Most of these studies were cross-sectional and yielded conflicting results. We aimed to assess the relationship between serum ferritin concentrations and dietary iron intake measured at baseline and 7.5 year pulse wave velocity (PWV), intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaques in a group of 824 men and women without known CVD, cancer or hemochromatosis. METHODS: The SUVIMAX study is a randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled primary prevention trial designed to test the effect of antioxidant supplementation in reducing ischemic cardiovascular diseases and cancer. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses, no association was found between baseline serum ferritin levels and IMT 7 years later (beta (95% CI)=0.003 (-0.005;0.011) in men; -0.005 (-0.013;0.004) and -0.001 (-0.011;0.009) in women, before and after menopause, respectively), plaques (OR (95% CI)=1.09 (0.88;1.34) in men; 0.93 (0.66;1.31) and 0.95 (0.70;1.29) in women, before and after menopause, respectively) or PWV (beta (95% CI)=0.078 (-0.154;0.310) in men; -0.018 (-0266;0.231) in women before and after menopause). Results for dietary iron intake were similar. CONCLUSION: Our results do not support the hypothesis that dietary iron intake and body iron stores are deleterious to the structure and function of large arteries in subjects free of CVD, cancer or hemochromatosis.

[Acute exacerbations of COPD admitted to hospital: predictive factors of 3 year mortality]. / Exacerbations aiguës de BPCO hospitalisées: facteurs prédictifs de mortalité à trois ans.

INTRODUCTION: COPD is a disease whose gravity is underestimated by doctors and patients. The development of acute exacerbations (AE) accelerates the progression of the disease and leads to increased financial costs, notably on account of hospitalisation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An observational prospective study will be undertaken based on a cohort of consecutive patients hospitalised in departments of respiratory medicine in general hospitals. The main objective is to study the factors predictive of mortality at 3 years after one admission for AE. The secondary objectives are to describe the characteristics of the AE on arrival and 3 months after discharge from hospital. A register will be set up and a questionnaire will be completed for each patient, consisting of items concerning COPD, the AE and the condition of the patient and his treatments 3 months after discharge. The level of mortality at 3 years and the predictive factors will be calculated from the data in the register. EXPECTED RESULTS: Identification the characteristics of the AE and determination of a predictive score for mortality should allow optimisation of the management of patients suffering from COPD.

Therapeutic management of inflammatory bowel disease in real-life practice in the current era of anti-TNF agents: analysis of the French administrative health databases 2009-2014.

BACKGROUND: Management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has evolved in the last decade. AIM: To assess IBD therapeutic management, including treatment withdrawal and early treatment use in the current era of anti-TNF agents (anti-TNFs). METHODS: All patients affiliated to the French national health insurance diagnosed with IBD were included from 2009 to 2013 and followed up until 31 December 2014. Medication uses, treatment sequences after introduction of thiopurine or anti-TNF monotherapies or both (combination therapy), surgical procedures and hospitalisations were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 210 001 patients were diagnosed with IBD [Crohn's disease (CD), 100 112; ulcerative colitis (UC), 109 889]. Five years after diagnosis, cumulative probabilities of anti-TNF monotherapy and combination therapy exposures were 33.8% and 18.3% in CD patients and 12.9% and 7.4% in UC patients, respectively. Among incident patients who received thiopurines or anti-TNFs, the first treatment was thiopurine in 69.1% of CD and 78.2% of UC patients. Among patients treated with anti-TNFs, 45.2% and 54.5% of CD patients and 38.2% and 39.9% of UC patients started monotherapy and combination therapy within 3 months after diagnosis, respectively; 31.3% of CD and 27.1% of UC incident patients withdrew from thiopurine or anti-TNFs for more than 3 months after their first course of treatment. Five years after diagnosis, the cumulative risks of first intestinal resection in CD patients and colectomy in UC patients were 11.9% and 5.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Step-up approach remains the predominant strategy, while exposure to anti-TNFs is high. Surgery rates are low. Treatment withdrawal in IBD is more common than expected.

[Cohort KBP-2000-CPHG: Evaluation of factors influencing survival in lung cancer]. / Cohorte KBP-2000-CPHG: évaluation des facteurs pronostiques de la survie du cancer bronchique primitif à 2 et 5 ans.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer continues to have a poor prognosis despite some therapeutic advances. BACKGROUND: The last fifteen years has seen a dramatic increase in the incidence of lung cancer in women and an increased proportion of adenocarcinomas in both sexes. A study of overall survival as a function of gender and other prognostic factors has been established using the cohort of patients from the study KBP-2000-CPHG. METHODS: KBP-2000-CPHG is an epidemiological study carried out throughout the year 2000 looking at histologically confirmed primary lung cancers managed in general hospitals. 5,667 patients have been included. The study of survival looks at 2 and 5-year outcomes. The date and cause of death are recorded for each patient. In the absence of these data the date of the last contact is noted. If this is less than 4 months the patient is considered to be alive. If more than four months have elapsed a graduated strategy for establishing vital status is pursued which involves reviewing records from various different sources. RESULTS AWAITED: A preliminary review of the data was undertaken between September 2004 and March 2005 which obtained data on 5 567 patients. The analysis of survival according to sex and other forecast prognostic factors is underway.

A decrease in diastolic blood pressure combined with an increase in systolic blood pressure is associated with a higher cardiovascular mortality in men.

OBJECTIVES: The study evaluated the risk of cardiovascular mortality according to combined spontaneous (non-treatment-related) changes in both systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). BACKGROUND: Long-term longitudinal changes in blood pressure may be a more accurate determinant of cardiovascular risk since changes in systolic or diastolic blood pressure over a period of time reflect the evolution of arterial and arteriolar alterations. METHODS: Two independent French male cohorts were studied: the IPC cohort (Investigations Préventives et Cliniques) composed of 15,561 men aged 20 to 82 years who had had two visits spaced four to 10 years apart, and the Paris Prospective Study composed of 6,246 men aged 42 to 53 years, examined annually for a period of four years. None of the subjects were taking antihypertensive medication. Annual changes in BP were estimated, and subjects were divided into groups according to the increase, lack of change, or decrease of systolic or diastolic BP. Nine groups were formed by combining the changes of systolic and diastolic BP. Cardiovascular mortality was assessed for a mean period of 13.5 years for the IPC Study and 17 years for the Paris Prospective Study. RESULTS: In both cohorts, after adjustment for age and major risk factors, the group with an increase in systolic and a decrease in diastolic BP presented the highest relative risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to the group with no changes in either systolic or diastolic BP (relative risk: 2.07 [1.05 to 4.06] in the IPC Study and 2.16 [1.16 to 4.01] in the Paris Prospective Study). CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of spontaneous changes of BP over a long period of time can contribute to the evaluation of cardiovascular risk. Subjects whose systolic BP increased while their diastolic BP decreased had the highest cardiovascular risk independently of absolute values of BP or other risk factors.

Sustained anxiety and 4-year progression of carotid atherosclerosis.

Several studies have shown that anxiety disorders are associated with a higher risk of coronary artery disease. However, the relationship between anxiety disorders and atherosclerosis has been studied to a lesser extent. The goal of this study was to examine whether high and stable trait anxiety was associated with the progression of atherosclerosis. The study group consisted of 726 subjects (297 men and 429 women), aged 59 to 71 years, recruited from the electoral rolls of the city of Nantes. The subjects had no history of coronary artery disease at baseline evaluation and or at the 2-year follow-up. Two follow-up examinations were conducted 2 and 4 years after the baseline evaluation. Trait anxiety was evaluated by means of the French translation of the Spielberger Inventory (a 20-item trait inventory, form X-2). The "sustained anxiety" group consisted of men and women with the highest Spielberger Inventory scores at baseline and at the 2-year follow-up examination. Each ultrasound examination included measurement of intima-media thickness and the sites of plaque in the extracranial carotid arteries. Men with sustained anxiety showed a higher 4-year increase of common carotid intima-media thickness than did men without sustained anxiety (adjusted means 0.08 versus 0.04 mm, respectively; P=0.05) and a higher risk of 4-year plaque occurrence (adjusted OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.4 to 8.5). Among women, sustained anxiety was associated with a higher 4-year increase of common carotid intima-media thickness (0.07 versus 0.04 for women with versus women without sustained anxiety, respectively; P=0.07). These results suggest that chronically high levels of anxiety may contribute to accelerating the evolution of carotid atherosclerosis.

Association between peak expiratory flow and the development of carotid atherosclerotic plaques.

BACKGROUND: Numerous population-based studies have suggested that impaired lung function is associated with subsequent coronary heart diseases-related mortality and cardiovascular disease-related mortality. The relative contribution of atherosclerosis in these associations is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of peak expiratory flow (PEF) with the occurrence during 4 years of atherosclerotic plaques in the extracranial carotid arteries in a sample of 656 subjects (aged 59-71 years) free of coronary heart disease and stroke at baseline. METHODS: Peak expiratory flow was measured at the baseline examination. Peak expiratory flow values relative to the predicted values (relative PEF values) were calculated, predicted values being obtained from previously published sex-specific regression equations of PEF on age and height. A carotid B-mode ultrasonographic examination was performed at baseline and 2 and 4 years later. The occurrence of carotid plaques during follow-up was defined as the appearance of 1 plaque (or more) in previously normal carotid segments and/or the appearance of new plaques in the carotid segments that previously had plaques. RESULTS: The proportion of subjects who experienced an occurrence of carotid atherosclerotic plaques during follow-up was 16.8% (110/656). The unadjusted odds ratios from the highest to the lowest quintiles of relative PEF values were 1.00, 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-2.79), 1.08 (95% CI, 0.52-2.24), 1.38 (95% CI, 0.69-2.79), and 3.07 (95% CI, 1.62-5.85) (P<.001 for trend). Adjustment for major known cardiovascular risk factors did not markedly change the results, and the multivariate-adjusted odds ratio of carotid plaque occurrence in subjects with the lowest quintile of PEF compared with those with the highest quintile remained highly significant (odds ratio, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.45-5.71) (P =.002). Particularly in all smoking categories, carotid plaque occurrence was higher in subjects with the lowest relative PEF values. In never smokers, the multivariate-adjusted odds ratio of carotid plaque occurrence in subjects with the lowest quintile of PEF compared with those with the highest quintile was 2.80 (95% CI, 1.14-6.88). CONCLUSIONS: Reduced lung function predicts the development of carotid atherosclerosis in elderly subjects. The nature of these associations remains largely unknown and merits further investigations. Nevertheless, assessment of lung function, which is simple and inexpensive, could help identify a population at high risk of atherosclerosis development and coronary heart disease.

[General practice patients at risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: epidemiologic survey of 3 411 patients]. / Patients à risque de broncho-pneumopathie chronique obstructive en médecine générale. Enquête épidémiologique avec 3 411 patients.

OBJECTIVES: Describe patients at risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and analyze general practitioners' (GPs) management of COPD patients in France in 2003-2004. METHODS: EDEN, a national epidemiological survey, recruited 2 378 GPs. Each GP was to include 3 consecutive patients (aged 36-80 years) who were current or former smokers and presented respiratory symptoms (any of expectoration, cough, or dyspnea) without asthma or previously diagnosed COPD. The physician completed a standardized, anonymous questionnaire for each patient, including measurement of peak expiratory flow (PEF). RESULTS: The sample of 3 411 current smokers or former smokers with respiratory symptoms included twice as many men as women. The mean age was 58 years, with women significantly younger (p<0.0001). Men and older patients had more severe disease. Women were more often current smokers, but they smoked less than men. All patients had at least one respiratory symptom, but only 63.5% were seeing their GP for that reason. Overall, 56.5% patients reported repeated acute bronchitis, and 36.3% of these at least 3 episodes. PEF was measured in 87.7% of patients and the ratio of mean measured PEF/predicted PEF was 73.2%. GPs concluded that 92.1% of these patients had COPD, but prescribed respiratory function tests useful for only 73.8% and referred only 71.2% to a specialist. CONCLUSION: Former and current smokers underestimated their respiratory symptoms, and so did the GPs. Accordingly, COPD is diagnosed later and at a more advanced stage. Increasing GPs' awareness of COPD would improve early detection in at-risk subjects.

Resting heart rate as a predictive risk factor for sudden death in middle-aged men.

OBJECTIVE: A relative hyperadrenergic tone related to abnormalities of the autonomic nervous system is suspected in the mechanisms of sudden death. Therefore, we assessed the role of an elevated basal heart rate in the occurrence of sudden death in a long-term cohort study. METHODS: 7746 subjects aged 42--53 years, underwent ECG and physical examination conducted by a physician under standardized conditions, provided blood samples for laboratory tests, and answered questionnaires administered by trained interviewers. The vital status was obtained from specific inquiries up to the time of retirement and then by death certificates. Men with known ischemic heart disease were further excluded from analysis which was conducted on the 7079 remaining subjects. RESULTS: After an average follow-up period of 23 years, there were 2083 deaths, among which were 603 cardiovascular deaths including 118 sudden deaths and 192 following myocardial infarction. The crude risk of sudden death increased linearly with the level of resting heart rate and the risk in men in the highest quintile of heart rate was 3.8 fold than in those in the lowest quintile, whereas rates were approximatively twice higher for fatal myocardial infarction, cardiovascular and total mortality (all P<0.01). When age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, tobacco consumption, parental history of myocardial infarction and parental history of sudden death, cholesterol level, diabetic status, and sport activity were simultaneously entered into the survival model, resting heart rate remained an independent risk factor for sudden death (P=0.03) but not for fatal myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: An elevated heart rate at rest was confirmed as an independent risk factor for sudden death in middle-aged men.

Impact of the sharp changes in the use of contraception in 2013 on the risk of pulmonary embolism in France.

BACKGROUND: In late 2012, a national pill crisis led French women to promptly change their behavior regarding contraception, with a significant increase in the use of first-generation and second-generation combined oral contraceptives to the detriment of third-generation and fourth-generation products (C3Gs and C4Gs). OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the sharp changes in 2013 on the rate of women hospitalized for pulmonary embolism in France. METHODS: All hospitalized pulmonary embolisms in women aged 15-49 years, excluding those occurring during delivery stay, were identified from the French national hospital discharge databases from 2010 to 2013. Hospitalization rates, overall and by age group, were calculated. We compared rates in 2013 with those in 2012, and with mean rates over the preceding 3-year period (2010-2012). Two populations of non-users of contraceptives were used as control groups: men aged 15-49 years, and women aged 50-69 years. The expected reduction in pulmonary embolism incidence, estimated by modeling the number of expected cases based on modifications of combined oral contraceptive exposure, was also considered. RESULTS: In France, in 2013 as compared with 2012, the pulmonary embolism hospitalization incidence rate in women aged 15-49 years fell by 10.6%, corresponding to a reduction of 322 hospitalizations (95% confidence interval -468 to -156). The expected pulmonary embolism reduction is consistent with the observed reduction in hospitalization incidence rate (-10.2% and -10.6%, respectively). Such a pattern was not observed in the control groups. CONCLUSIONS: The sharp change in contraception methods, with decreased use of C3Gs and C4Gs, probably played a major role in the reduction in venous thromboembolism morbidity in France.

Weights at birth and in early infancy, systolic pressure, and left ventricular structure in subjects aged 8 to 24 years.

The objective of this study was to determine whether systolic pressure and left ventricular mass in children, adolescents, and young adults are related to fetal and infant growth. Blood pressure measurements and M-mode echocardiography were performed in 210 subjects aged 8 to 24 years whose information on weights at birth and in early infancy, written by physicians, was obtained from the children's health record booklets. Systolic pressure, adjusted for sex and current height or for sex, current age, weight, and height, was the highest in subjects with low birth weight. No association was observed between systolic pressure and weight at either 9 months or 2 years. Left ventricular mass, adjusted for sex and current height or for sex, current age, weight, and height, increased with decreasing weight at 9 months or 2 years, independent of systolic pressure. Increased ventricular mass associated with reduced infant growth was concentric, resulting from a proportionate thickening of the posterior wall and interventricular septum. Left ventricular mass was not related to birth weight. These findings were observed in both sexes and in all age subgroups and were independent of gestational age, birth order, and parental risk factors. This study supports the hypothesis that systolic pressure and left ventricular mass might be partly determined during fetal life and early infancy. The mechanisms that underlie the associations of blood pressure and left ventricular structure with weights at birth and in early infancy should be studied thoroughly.

Combined effects of blood pressure and body mass index on left ventricular structure in middle-aged males: cross-sectional and 2-year longitudinal results.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the 2-year longitudinal with the cross-sectional relationships of blood pressure and body mass index with echocardiographic left ventricular measurements in middle-aged males with no history of cardiovascular disease or hypertension. METHODS: M-mode echocardiograms of adequate quality were obtained at initial and 2-year follow-up examinations in 177 subjects. Measurements of left ventricular wall thickness and internal dimensions were made, and estimates of left ventricular mass/height were calculated. Longitudinal changes in left ventricular measurements and risk factors were computed as the differences between the follow-up and initial values. RESULTS: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was significantly associated with left ventricular mass/height and wall thickness in cross-sectional and in longitudinal analyses. Similar results were observed after adjusting for age, body mass index, sport activity and heart rate. Although body mass index was strongly related to left ventricular mass/height, wall thickness and internal dimension in the cross-sectional study, no significant associations were observed between changes in body mass index and in left ventricular measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The present study emphasizes the differential effects of spontaneous changes in blood pressure and body mass index on the evolution of the left ventricular mass in middle-aged males. Spontaneous changes in SBP during the 2-year follow-up period were associated with rapid changes in left ventricular structure. The 2-year period might not have been sufficient for body mass index to induce changes in left ventricular structure. The duration and amplitude of body weight changes which entail changes in left ventricular mass remain to be determined by further longitudinal investigations.

Peak expiratory flow rate variability in population surveys. Does the number of assessments matter?

We investigated the effect of reducing the number of daily peak expiratory flow (PEF) measurements on (1) the amplitude of PEF variability and (2) the relationships of this amplitude to bronchial reactivity to methacholine. One hundred seventeen workers (mean age = 38.7 years +/- 9.5; men = 86.3%) recorded their highest of three PEF measurements, every 3 waking hours, ie, 5 times a day, for 7 days, each using a newly purchased peak flowmeter (Vitalograph), and underwent methacholine challenge tests. The variability of PEF of each subject was expressed using the three sets of indices: amp%mean, ie, highest of the daily measurements considered minus the lowest/mean x 100, averaged over 6 days from the second to the seventh, amp%highest (same as amp%mean, but with the highest daily measurements as denominators) and SD%mean (calculated initially as single measures using the data of the 6 days considered, with standard deviation (SD) of each subject's PEF measurements). For each set, we used the indices constructed with the five daily measurements of each day (gold standard), with the first, third, fourth, and fifth, the first, third, and fourth, the first and third, and the first and fourth. The PEF variability was significantly reduced when reducing the number of daily measurements, only when the amp%mean and the amp%highest sets were used. No decrease was observed with the SD%mean set of indices, and SD%mean constructed with the first, third, fourth, and fifth daily measurement was satisfactory. Whatever the sort of index used, three daily measurements were sufficient to identify the group of subjects with excessive variability in relation to methacholine reactivity.

Predicting the outcome in elderly patients of hospital admission for acute care in Paris, France: construction and initial validation of a simplex index.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple index able to identify at an early stage those elderly patients at high risk of requiring discharge to a residential or nursing home after admission to hospital for acute care. For these patients, early discharge planning might lead to a more effective management and reduce the length of hospitalisation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: This was a prospective study conducted in two teaching hospitals in Paris, France. A total of 510 consecutive patients was included. They were aged 75 years or more and had been admitted to acute medical care units through the emergency department. MEASUREMENTS: Demographic data, social support, physical disability, mental disability, and pathologic status were assessed shortly after admission (within 24-48 hours). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcome of hospitalisation was defined as discharge to home or residential/nursing home. RESULTS: The index, developed by multiple logistic regression, included six variables: the wish of patients' principal career about their returning home after acute hospitalisation, presence of a chronic condition, ability to perform toileting, ability to know the name of the hospital or the city, their age, and their living arrangements. The sensitivity of the index in identifying patients at high risk of requiring discharge to a residential/nursing home was 74.4%, the specificity 63.8% the positive predictive value was 57.8%, and the negative predictive value was 80.6%. CONCLUSIONS: The simple index, using data available very early in the course of hospitalisation, provides an accurate prediction of the hospitalisation outcome. The performance of the index should be tested in other populations and the practical benefits of risk screening should be assessed in a controlled trial to evaluate whether the intervention is useful and without any adverse effects.