Development and External Validation of the International Early Warning Score for Improved Age- and Sex-Adjusted In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in the Emergency Department.

OBJECTIVES: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in development and validation and have poor predictive performance in older patients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an International Early Warning Score (IEWS) based on a recalibrated National Early warning Score (NEWS) model including age and sex and evaluate its performance independently at arrival to the ED in three age categories (18-65, 66-80, > 80 yr). DESIGN: International multicenter cohort study. SETTING: Data was used from three Dutch EDs. External validation was performed in two EDs in Denmark. PATIENTS: All consecutive ED patients greater than or equal to 18 years in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) with at least two registered vital signs were included, resulting in 95,553 patients. For external validation, 14,809 patients were included from a Danish Multicenter Cohort (DMC). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Model performance to predict in-hospital mortality was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curves and summary statistics, reclassification, and clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis. In-hospital mortality rate was 2.4% ( n = 2,314) in the NEED and 2.5% ( n = 365) in the DMC. Overall, the IEWS performed significantly better than NEWS with an area under the receiving operating characteristic of 0.89 (95% CIs, 0.89-0.90) versus 0.82 (0.82-0.83) in the NEED and 0.87 (0.85-0.88) versus 0.82 (0.80-0.84) at external validation. Calibration for NEWS predictions underestimated risk in older patients and overestimated risk in the youngest, while calibration improved for IEWS with a substantial reclassification of patients from low to high risk and a standardized net benefit of 5-15% in the relevant risk range for all age categories. CONCLUSIONS: The IEWS substantially improves in-hospital mortality prediction for all ED patients greater than or equal to18 years.

THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE AND HEART RATE IN EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT PATIENTS: A MULTICENTER COHORT STUDY.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines and textbooks assert that tachycardia is an early and reliable sign of hypotension, and an increased heart rate (HR) is believed to be an early warning sign for the development of shock, although this response may change by aging, pain, and stress. OBJECTIVE: To assess the unadjusted and adjusted associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and HR in emergency department (ED) patients of different age categories (18-50 years; 50-80 years; > 80 years). METHODS: A multicenter cohort study using the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) including all ED patients ≥ 18 years from three hospitals in whom HR and SBP were registered at arrival to the ED. Findings were validated in a Danish cohort including ED patients. In addition, a separate cohort was used including ED patients with a suspected infection who were hospitalized from whom measurement of SBP and HR were available prior to, during, and after ED treatment. Associations between SBP and HR were visualized and quantified with scatterplots and regression coefficients (95% confidence interval [CI]). RESULTS: A total of 81,750 ED patients were included from the NEED, and a total of 2358 patients with a suspected infection. No associations were found between SBP and HR in any age category (18-50 years: -0.03 beats/min/10 mm Hg, 95% CI -0.13-0.07, 51-80 years: -0.43 beats/min/10 mm Hg, 95% CI -0.38 to -0.50, > 80 years: -0.61 beats/min/10 mm Hg, 95% CI -0.53 to -0.71), nor in different subgroups of ED patient. No increase in HR existed with a decreasing SBP during ED treatment in ED patients with a suspected infection. CONCLUSION: No association between SBP and HR existed in ED patients of any age category, nor in ED patients who were hospitalized with a suspected infection, even during and after ED treatment. Emergency physicians may be misled by traditional concepts about HR disturbances because tachycardia may be absent in hypotension.

The Impact of Age on Predictive Performance of National Early Warning Score at Arrival to Emergency Departments: Development and External Validation.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate how age affects the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) at arrival to the emergency department (ED) regarding inhospital mortality and intensive care admission. METHODS: International multicenter retrospective cohorts from 2 Danish and 3 Dutch ED. Development cohort: 14,809 Danish patients aged ≥18 years with at least systolic blood pressure or pulse measured from the Danish Multicenter Cohort. External validation cohort: 50,448 Dutch patients aged ≥18 years with all vital signs measured from the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). Multivariable logistic regression was used for model building. Performance was evaluated overall and within age categories: 18 to 64 years, 65 to 80 years, and more than 80 years. RESULTS: In the Danish Multicenter Cohort, a total of 2.5% died inhospital, and 2.8% were admitted to the ICU, compared with 2.8% and 1.6%, respectively, in the NEED. Age did not add information for the prediction of intensive care admission but was the strongest predictor for inhospital mortality. For NEWS alone, severe underestimation of risk was observed for persons above 80 while overall Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) was 0.82 (confidence interval [CI] 0.80 to 0.84) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.75 (CI 0.75 to 0.77) in the NEED. When combining NEWS with age, underestimation of risks was eliminated for persons above 80, and overall AUROC increased significantly to 0.86 (CI 0.85 to 0.88) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.82 (CI 0.81 to 0.83) in the NEED. CONCLUSION: Combining NEWS with age improved the prediction performance regarding inhospital mortality, mostly for persons aged above 80, and can potentially improve decision policies at arrival to EDs.

The effect of treatment and clinical course during Emergency Department stay on severity scoring and predicted mortality risk in Intensive Care patients.

BACKGROUND: Treatment and the clinical course during Emergency Department (ED) stay before Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission may affect predicted mortality risk calculated by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-IV, causing lead-time bias. As a result, comparing standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) among hospitals may be difficult if they differ in the location where initial stabilization takes place. The aim of this study was to assess to what extent predicted mortality risk would be affected if the APACHE-IV score was recalculated with the initial physiological variables from the ED. Secondly, to evaluate whether ED Length of Stay (LOS) was associated with a change (delta) in these APACHE-IV scores. METHODS: An observational multicenter cohort study including ICU patients admitted from the ED. Data from two Dutch quality registries were linked: the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) and the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) registry. The ICU APACHE-IV, predicted mortality, and SMR based on data of the first 24 h of ICU admission were compared with an ED APACHE-IV model, using the most deviating physiological variables from the ED or ICU. RESULTS: A total of 1398 patients were included. The predicted mortality from the ICU APACHE-IV (median 0.10; IQR 0.03-0.30) was significantly lower compared to the ED APACHE-IV model (median 0.13; 0.04-0.36; p < 0.01). The SMR changed from 0.63 (95%CI 0.54-0.72) to 0.55 (95%CI 0.47-0.63) based on ED APACHE-IV. Predicted mortality risk changed more than 5% in 321 (23.2%) patients by using the ED APACHE-IV. ED LOS > 3.9 h was associated with a slight increase in delta APACHE-IV of 1.6 (95% CI 0.4-2.8) compared to ED LOS < 1.7 h. CONCLUSION: Predicted mortality risks and SMRs calculated by the APACHE IV scores are not directly comparable in patients admitted from the ED if hospitals differ in their policy to stabilize patients in the ED before ICU admission. Future research should focus on developing models to adjust for these differences.

The association between vital signs and clinical outcomes in emergency department patients of different age categories.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate interpretation of vital signs is essential for risk stratification in the emergency department (ED) but may change with advancing age. In several guidelines, risk scores such as the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores, commonly used in emergency medicine practice (as well as critical care) specify a single cut-off or threshold for each of the commonly measured vital signs. Although a single cut-off may be convenient, it is unknown whether a single cut-off for vital signs truly exists and if the association between vital signs and in-hospital mortality differs per age-category. AIMS: To assess the association between initial vital signs and case-mix adjusted in-hospital mortality in different age categories. METHODS: Observational multicentre cohort study using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED) in which consecutive ED patients ≥18 years were included between 1 January 2017 and 12 January 2020. The association between vital signs and case-mix adjusted mortality were assessed in three age categories (18-65; 66-80; >80 years) using multivariable logistic regression. Vital signs were each divided into five to six categories, for example, systolic blood pressure (SBP) categories (≤80, 81-100, 101-120, 121-140, >140 mm Hg). RESULTS: We included 101 416 patients of whom 2374 (2.3%) died. Adjusted ORs for mortality increased gradually with decreasing SBP and decreasing peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2). Diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) had quasi-U-shaped associations with mortality. Mortality did not increase for temperatures anywhere in the range between 35.5°C and 42.0°C, with a single cut-off around 35.5°C below which mortality increased. Single cut-offs were also found for MAP <70 mm Hg and respiratory rate >22/min. For all vital signs, older patients had larger increases in absolute mortality compared with younger patients. CONCLUSION: For SBP, DBP, SpO2 and HR, no single cut-off existed. The impact of changing vital sign categories on prognosis was larger in older patients. Our results have implications for the interpretation of vital signs in existing risk stratification tools and acute care guidelines.

Frailty is associated with in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands: the COVID-OLD study.

BACKGROUND: During the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, older patients had an increased risk of hospitalisation and death. Reports on the association of frailty with poor outcome have been conflicting. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to investigate the independent association between frailty and in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. METHODS: This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study in 15 hospitals in the Netherlands, including all patients aged ≥70 years, who were hospitalised with clinically confirmed COVID-19 between February and May 2020. Data were collected on demographics, co-morbidity, disease severity and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1,376 patients were included (median age 78 years (interquartile range 74-84), 60% male). In total, 499 (38%) patients died during hospital admission. Parameters indicating presence of frailty (CFS 6-9) were associated with more co-morbidities, shorter symptom duration upon presentation (median 4 versus 7 days), lower oxygen demand and lower levels of C-reactive protein. In multivariable analyses, the CFS was independently associated with in-hospital mortality: compared with patients with CFS 1-3, patients with CFS 4-5 had a two times higher risk (odds ratio (OR) 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-3.0)) and patients with CFS 6-9 had a three times higher risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.8-4.3)). CONCLUSIONS: The in-hospital mortality of older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands was 38%. Frailty was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality, even though COVID-19 patients with frailty presented earlier to the hospital with less severe symptoms.

Experiences with and attitudes towards geriatric screening among older emergency department patients: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The patient perspective on the use of screening for high risks of adverse health outcomes in Emergency Department (ED) care is underexposed, although it is an important perspective influencing implementation in routine care. This study explores the experiences with, and attitudes towards geriatric screening in routine ED care among older people who visited the ED. METHODS: This was a qualitative study using individual face-to-face semi-structured interviews. Interviews were conducted in older patients (≥70 years) who completed the 'Acutely Presenting Older Patient' screener while visiting the ED of a Dutch academic hospital. Purposive convenience sampling was used to select a heterogeneous sample of participants regarding age, disease severity and the result from screening. Transcripts were analyzed inductively using thematic analysis. RESULTS: After 13 interviews (7 women, median age 82 years), data saturation was reached. The participants had noticed little of the screening administration during triage and screening was considered as a normal part of ED care. Most participants believed that geriatric screening contributes to assessing older patients holistically, recognizing geriatric problems early and comforting patients with communication and attention. None of the participants had a negative attitude towards screening or thought that screening is discrimination on age. Care providers should communicate respectfully with frail older patients and involve them in decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients experienced geriatric screening as a normal part of ED care and had predominantly positive attitudes towards its use in the ED. This qualitative study advocates for continuing the implementation of geriatric screening in routine ED practice.

Telemedicine in the emergency department to decrease personal protective equipment use: a before-and-after study.

BACKGROUND: Personal protective equipment (PPE) used by healthcare workers was scarce during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to assess whether telemedicine (using iPads) reduced PPE use in emergency department (ED) patients who were treated in contact isolation, and whether telemedicine had a positive effect on patient anxiety and satisfaction. METHODS: We conducted a prospective single centre before-and-after study including ED patients ≥18 years who were treated in contact isolation. PPE use, the Hospital Anxiety Scale and the 15-item Picker Patient Experience Questionnaire were compared between the control period (8 April to 14 April 2020) and intervention period (15 April to 24 April 2020). RESULTS: We included 25 patients in each period. PPE use per patient was higher for physicians in the control period (mean 1.7; 95% CI 1.5 to 1.9) compared with the intervention period (mean 1.2; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.3, p<0.01). Total PPE use per patient contact for ED physicians decreased from 42 out of 42 patient contacts in the control period, to 29 out of 66 patient contacts in the intervention period (difference 54.3%; 95% CI 50.1% to 58.6%, p<0.01). Reported anxiety and satisfaction were not significantly different. CONCLUSION: PPE use by physicians can successfully be reduced by using telemedicine in the ED without increasing anxiety or dissatisfaction. This study was a first step to gain experience with telemedicine in the ED which has the potential to reduce PPE use in future pandemics or other patients with an indication for contact isolation.

Emergency department management of older people living with frailty: a guide for emergency practitioners.

Emergency Departments (EDs) are increasingly seeing more seriously unwell older people living with frailty. In the context of limited resources and increasing demand it's the ED practitioner's challenge to unpick this constellation of physical, psychological, functional and social issues.To properly assess older people living with frailty at the ED it is crucial to use an holistic approach. This consists of triage with algorithms sensitive to the higher risk of older people living with frailty, a frailty assessment, and an assessment with the help of the principles of Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment. Multi-disciplinary care, a tailor-made treatment plan, based on what the person values most, will help the ED practitioner to deliver appropriate and valuable care during the ED stay, but also in transition from hospital to home.

Implementation of the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screening program in routine emergency department care : A before-after study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implementation of the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screening program for older patients in routine emergency department (ED) care shortly after implementation. METHODS: We conducted an implementation study with before-after design, using the plan-do-study-act (PDSA) model for quality improvement, in the ED of a Dutch academic hospital. All consecutive patients ≥ 70 years during 2 months before and after implementation were included. The APOP program comprises screening for risk of functional decline, mortality and cognitive impairment, targeted interventions for high-risk patients and education of professionals. Outcome measures were compliance with interventions and impact on ED process, length of stay (LOS) and hospital admission rate. RESULTS: Two comparable groups of patients (median age 77 years) were included before (n = 920) and after (n = 953) implementation. After implementation 560 (59%) patients were screened of which 190 (34%) were high-risk patients. Some of the program interventions for high-risk patients in the ED were adhered to, some were not. More hospitalized patients received comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) after implementation (21% before vs. 31% after; p = 0.002). In 89% of high-risk patients who were discharged to home, telephone follow-up was initiated. Implementation did not influence median ED LOS (202 min before vs. 196 min after; p = 0.152) or hospital admission rate (40% before vs. 39% after; p = 0.410). CONCLUSION: Implementation of the APOP screening program in routine ED care did not negatively impact the ED process and resulted in an increase of CGA and telephone follow-up in older patients. Future studies should investigate whether sustainable changes in management and patient outcomes occur after more PDSA cycles.

Feasibility and acceptability of the 'Acutely Presenting Older Patient' screener in routine emergency department care.

BACKGROUND: risk stratification tools for older patients in the emergency department (ED) have rarely been implemented successfully in routine care. OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of the 'Acutely Presenting Older Patient' (APOP) screener, which identifies older ED patients at the highest risk of adverse outcomes within 2 minutes at presentation. DESIGN AND SETTING: 2-month prospective cohort study, after the implementation of the APOP screener in ED routine care in the Leiden University Medical Center. SUBJECTS: all consecutive ED patients aged ≥70 years. METHODS: feasibility of screening was assessed by measuring the screening rate and by identifying patient- and organisation-related determinants of screening completion. Acceptability was assessed by collecting experienced barriers of screening completion from triage-nurses. RESULTS: we included 953 patients with a median age of 77 (IQR 72-82) years, of which 560 (59%) patients were screened. Patients had a higher probability of being screened when they had a higher age (OR 1.03 (95%CI 1.01-1.06), P = 0.017). Patients had a lower probability of being screened when they were triaged very urgent (OR 0.55 (0.39-0.78), P = 0.001) or when the number of patients upon arrival was high (OR 0.63 (0.47-0.86), P = 0.003). Experienced barriers of screening completion were patient-related ('patient was too sick'), organisation-related ('ED was too busy') and personnel-related ('forgot to complete screening'). CONCLUSION: with more than half of all older patients screened, feasibility and acceptability of screening in routine ED care is very promising. To further improve screening completion, solutions are needed for patients who present with high urgency and during ED rush hours.

Circulating tRNA Fragments as a Novel Biomarker Class to Distinguish Acute Stroke Subtypes.

: Early blood biomarkers to diagnose acute stroke could drastically reduce treatment delays. We investigated whether circulating small non-coding RNAs can serve as biomarkers to distinguish between acute ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and stroke mimics (SM). In an ongoing observational cohort study, we performed small RNA-sequencing in plasma obtained from a discovery cohort of 26 patients (9 IS, 8 ICH and 9 SM) presented to the emergency department within 6 h of symptom onset. We validated our results in an independent dataset of 20 IS patients and 20 healthy controls. ICH plasma had the highest abundance of ribosomal and tRNA-derived fragments, while microRNAs were most abundant in plasma of IS patients. Combinations of four to five tRNAs yielded diagnostic accuracies (areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve) up to 0.986 (ICH vs. IS and SM) in the discovery cohort. Validation of the IS and SM models in the independent dataset yielded diagnostic accuracies of 0.870 and 0.885 to distinguish IS from healthy controls. Thus, we identified tRNA-derived fragments as a promising novel class of biomarkers to distinguish between acute IS, ICH and SM, as well as healthy controls.

The association between systolic blood pressure and in-hospital mortality in older emergency department patients who are hospitalised with a suspected infection.

OBJECTIVE: In existing risk stratification and resuscitation guidelines for sepsis, a hypotension threshold of systolic blood pressure (SBP) below 90-100 mmHg is typically used. However, for older patients, the clinical relevance of a SBP in a seemingly 'normal' range (>100 mmHg) is still poorly understood, as they may need higher SBP for adequate tissue perfusion due to arterial stiffening. We therefore investigated the association between SBP and mortality in older emergency department (ED) patients hospitalised with a suspected infection. METHODS: In this observational multicentre study in the Netherlands, we interrogated an existing prospective database of consecutive ED patients hospitalised with a suspected infection between 2011 and 2016. We investigated the association between SBP categories (≤100, 101-120, 121-139, ≥140 mmHg) and in-hospital mortality in patients of 70 years and older. We adjusted for demographics, comorbidity, disease severity and admission to ward/intensive care using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In the 833 included older patients, unadjusted in-hospital mortality increased from 4.7% (n=359) in SBP ≥140 mmHg to 20.8% (n=96) in SBP ≤100 mmHg. SBP categories were linearly associated with case-mix-adjusted in-hospital mortality. The adjusted ORs (95% CI) for ≤100, 101-120 and 121-139 mmHgcompared with the reference of ≥140 mmHg were 3.8 (1.8 to 7.8), 2.8 (1.4 to 5.5) and 1.9 (0.9 to 3.7), respectively. CONCLUSION: In older ED patients hospitalised with a suspected infection, we found an inverse linear association between SBP and case-mix-adjusted in-hospital mortality. Our data suggest that the commonly used threshold for hypotension is not clinically meaningful for risk stratification of older ED patients with a suspected infection.

Inclusion of emergency department patients in early stages of sepsis in a quality improvement programme has the potential to improve survival: a prospective dual-centre study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Sepsis quality improvement programmes typically focus on severe sepsis (ie, with acute organ failure). However, quality of ED care might be improved if these programmes included patients whose progression to severe sepsis could still be prevented (ie, infection without acute organ failure). We compared the impact on mortality of implementing a quality improvement programme among ED patients with a suspected infection with or without acute organ failure. METHODS: This prospective observational study among ED patients hospitalised with suspected infection was conducted in two hospitals in the Netherlands. After stratification by sepsis category (with or without organ failure), in-hospital mortality was compared between a full compliance (all quality performance measures achieved) and an incomplete compliance group. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to quantify the impact of full compliance on in-hospital mortality, adjusting for disease severity, disposition and hospital. RESULTS: There were 1732 ED patients and 130 deaths. Full compliance was independently associated with approximately two-thirds reduction in the odds of hospital mortality (adjusted OR of 0.30 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.47), which was similar in patients with and without organ failure. Among the 1379 patients with suspected infection without acute organ failure, there were 64 deaths, 15 (1.1%) in the full compliance group and 49 (3.6%) in the incomplete compliance group (mortality difference 2.5% (95% CI 1.6% to 3.3%)). Among 353 patients with organ failure, there were 66 deaths, 12 (3.4%) in the full compliance compared with 54 (15.3%) in the incomplete compliance group (mortality difference 11.9% (95% CI 8.5% to 15.3%)). Thus, there was a difference of 76 deaths between full and incomplete compliance groups, and 34 (45%) who benefited were those without acute organ failure. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis quality improvement programmes should incorporate ED patients in earlier stages of sepsis given the potential to reduce in-hospital mortality among this population.

Prediction of 90-day mortality in older patients after discharge from an emergency department: a retrospective follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Older people frequently attend the emergency department (ED) and have a high risk of poor outcome as compared to their younger counterparts. Our aim was to study routinely collected clinical parameters as predictors of 90-day mortality in older patients attending our ED. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective follow-up study at the Leiden University Medical Center (The Netherlands) among patients aged 70 years or older attending the ED in 2012. Predictors were age, gender, time and way of arrival, presenting complaint, consulting medical specialty, vital signs, pain score and laboratory testing. Cox regression analyses were performed to analyse the association between these predictors and 90-day mortality. RESULTS: Three thousand two hundred one unique patients were eligible for inclusion. Ninety-day mortality was 10.5 % for the total group. Independent predictors of mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] 1.04-1.08), referral from another hospital (HR 2.74, 95 % CI 1.22-6.11), allocation to a non-surgical specialty (HR: 1.55, 95 % CI 1.13-2.14), increased respiration rate (HR up to 2.21, 95 % CI 1.25-3.92), low oxygen saturation (HR up to 1.96, 95 % CI 1.19-3.23), hypothermia (HR 2.27, 95 % CI 1.28-4.01), fever (HR 0.43, 95 % CI 0.24-0.75), high pain score (HR 1.55, 95 % CI 1.03-2.32) and the indication to perform laboratory testing (HR 3.44, 95 % CI 2.13-5.56). CONCLUSIONS: Routinely collected parameters at the ED can predict 90-day mortality in older patients presenting to the ED. This study forms the first step towards creating a new and simple screening tool to predict and improve health outcome in acutely presenting older patients.

The association between time to antibiotics and relevant clinical outcomes in emergency department patients with various stages of sepsis: a prospective multi-center study.

INTRODUCTION: In early sepsis stages, optimal treatment could contribute to prevention of progression to severe sepsis. Therefore, we investigated if there was an association between time to antibiotics and relevant clinical outcomes in hospitalized emergency department (ED) patients with mild to severe sepsis stages. METHODS: This is a prospective multicenter study in three Dutch EDs. Patients were stratified into three categories of illness severity, as assessed by the predisposition, infection, response, and organ failure (PIRO) score: PIRO score 1 to 7, 8 to 14 and >14 points, reflected low, intermediate, and high illness severity, respectively. Consecutive hospitalized ED patients with a suspected infection who were treated with intravenous antibiotics were eligible to participate in the study. The primary outcome measure was the number of surviving days outside the hospital at day 28 which was used as an inverse measure of hospital length of stay (LOS). The secondary outcome measure was 28-day mortality, taking into account the time to mortality. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the association between time to antibiotics and the primary and secondary outcome measures corrected for confounders, including appropriateness of antibiotics and initial ED resuscitation, in three categories of illness severity. RESULTS: Of the 1,168 included patients, 112 died (10%), while 85% and 95% received antibiotics within three and six hours, respectively. No association between time to antibiotics and surviving days outside the hospital or mortality was found. Only in PIRO group 1 to 7 was delayed administration of antibiotics (>3 hours) associated with an increase in surviving days outside the hospital at day 28 (hazard ratio: 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.05 to 2.02 after correction for potential confounders). CONCLUSIONS: In ED patients with mild to severe sepsis who received antibiotics within six hours after ED presentation, a reduction in time to antibiotics was not found to be associated with an improvement in relevant clinical outcomes.

Emergency department management and follow-up of children with bicycle spoke injuries.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for a standard x-ray study and cast immobilization in emergency department (ED) management and follow-up of children with bicycle spoke injury (BSI) is absent. OBJECTIVE: To describe the injury pattern and outpatient follow-up and care of ED patients with BSI. In addition, patient characteristics predicting the presence of a fracture and long-term follow-up were assessed. METHODS: This was a retrospective study including BSI patients < 9 years of age. Kruskal-Wallis test was used to compare groups with a fracture, soft tissue injury, and mild skin abrasion. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of a fracture and long-term outpatient follow-up. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent of 141 included patients had a fracture, with a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 27 (23-40) days. For soft tissue injury and mild abrasions this was 9 (6-14) and 7 (5-9) days, respectively (p < 0.001). No clinical variables could predict a fracture. Fifty-six (40%) patients required no further care after the first outpatient visit at ∼1 week. Triage category yellow and swelling were independent predictors for more than one outpatient visit, besides presence of fracture. Corrected odds ratios (95% confidence interval) were 2.42 (0.99-5.88) and 4.76 (1.38-16.39), respectively. Only 12% of 141 patients had none of these predictors at ED presentation. CONCLUSIONS: A quarter of ED patients with BSI have a fracture with no clinical signs that could predict the presence of a fracture, justifying a standard x-ray study in ED management. Only 12% of ED patients with BSI have no fracture and no signs that predict long-term follow-up. In this group, further studies are warranted to investigate the benefit of cast immobilization for fractures and soft tissue injury.

The prognostic performance of the predisposition, infection, response and organ failure (PIRO) classification in high-risk and low-risk emergency department sepsis populations: comparison with clinical judgement and sepsis category.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the prognostic performance of the predisposition, infection, response and organ failure (PIRO) score with the traditional sepsis category and clinical judgement in high-risk and low-risk Dutch emergency department (ED) sepsis populations. METHODS: Prospective study in ED patients with severe sepsis and septic shock (high-risk cohort), or suspected infection (low-risk cohort). OUTCOME: 28-day mortality. Prognostic performance of PIRO, sepsis category and clinical judgement were assessed with Cox regression analysis with correction for quality of ED treatment and disposition. Illness severity measures were divided into four groups with the lowest illness severity as reference category; discrimination was quantified by receiver operator characteristics with area under the curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: Death occurred in 72/323 (22%, high-risk) and 23/385 (6%, low-risk) patients. For the low-risk cohort, corrected HRs (95% CI) for categories 2-4 were 2.0 (0.4 to 11.9), 4.3 (0.8 to 24.7) and 17.8 (2.8 to 113.0: PIRO); 0.5 (0.05 to 5.4), 2.1 (0.2 to 21.8) and 7.5 (0.6 to 92.9: sepsis category). Patients discharged home (category 1) all survived. HRs were 4.5 (0.5 to 39.1) and 13.6 (4.3 to 43.5) for clinical judgement categories 3-4. Prognostic performance was consistently better in the low-risk than in the high-risk cohort. For PIRO AUCs were 0.68 (0.61 to 0.74; high-risk) and 0.83 (0.75 to 0.91; low-risk); for sepsis category AUCs were 0.50 (0.42 to 0.57; high-risk) and 0.73 (0.61 to 0.86; low-risk); for clinical judgement AUCs were 0.69 (0.60 to 0.78; high-risk) and 0.84 (0.73 to 0.96; low-risk). CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy and discriminative performance of the PIRO score and clinical judgement are similar, but better than the sepsis category. Prognostic performance of illness severity scores is less in high-risk cohorts, while in high-risk populations a risk stratification tool would be most useful.

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T is an independent predictor of inhospital mortality in emergency department patients with suspected infection: a prospective observational derivation study.

INTRODUCION: To assess the prognostic and discriminative accuracy of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) for prediction of inhospital mortality in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected infection. METHODS: Prospective observational derivation study in ED patients with suspected infection. Prognostic performance of hs-cTnT (divided in four quartiles because of non-linearity) for prediction of inhospital mortality was assessed using multivariable logistic regression, correcting for predisposition, infection, response and organ failure (PIRO) score as a measure of illness severity and quality of ED treatment as quantified by the number of 'Surviving Sepsis Campaign' goals achieved. Discriminative power of hs-cTnT was assessed by receiver operator characteristics with area under the curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: Hs-cTnT (median (IQR) was 57 (25-90) ng/L (n=23) in non-survivors, significantly higher than the 15 (7-28) ng/L in survivors (n=269, p<0.001). Additionally, the lowest quartile of hs-cTnT was a perfect predictor of survival because zero death occurred. Therefore, the second quartile was used as a reference category in the multivariable logistic regression analysis showing that hs-cTnT was an independent predictor of inhospital mortality: Corrected ORs were 2.2 (95% CI 0.4 to 12.1) and 5.8 (1.2 to 27.3) for the 3rd and 4th quartile compared with the 2nd hs-cTnT quartile. The AUCs of hs-TnT was 0.81 (0.74 to 0.88), similar to the AUC of 0.78 (0.68 to 0.87) of the PIRO score (p>0.05). Overall negative predictive value of hs-cTnT was 99%. CONCLUSIONS: In ED patients with suspected infection, the routinely used biomarker hs-cTnT is an independent predictor of inhospital mortality with excellent discriminative performance. Future studies should focus on the additional value of hs-cTnT to existing risk stratification tools.