Homicide rates are spatially associated with built environment and socio-economic factors: a study in the neighbourhoods of Toronto, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Homicide rate is associated with a large variety of factors and therefore unevenly distributed over time and space. This study aims to explore homicide patterns and their spatial associations with different socioeconomic and built-environment conditions in 140 neighbourhoods of the city of Toronto, Canada. METHODS: A homicide dataset covering the years 2012 to 2021 and neighbourhood-based indicators were analysed using spatial techniques such as Kernel Density Estimation, Global/Local Moran's I and Kulldorff's SatScan spatio-temporal methodology. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi-scale GWR (MGWR) were used to analyse the spatially varying correlations between the homicide rate and independent variables. The latter was particularly suitable for manifested spatial variations between explanatory variables and the homicide rate and it also identified spatial non-stationarities in this connection. RESULTS: The adjusted R2 of the MGWR was 0.53, representing a 4.35 and 3.74% increase from that in the linear regression and GWR models, respectively. Spatial and spatio-temporal high-risk areas were found to be significantly clustered in downtown and the north-western parts of the city. Some variables (e.g., the population density, material deprivation, the density of commercial establishments and the density of large buildings) were significantly associated with the homicide rate in different spatial ways. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study showed that homicide rates were clustered over time and space in certain areas of the city. Socioeconomic and the built environment characteristics of some neighbourhoods were found to be associated with high homicide rates but these factors were different for each neighbourhood.

Risk of Outdoor Rape and Proximity to Bus Stops, Bars, and Residences.

Several researchers have linked the configuration of public places to the risk of sexual attack against women, including rape. Based on the routine activity approach and crime pattern theory, we expect to find the greatest risk of outdoor urban rape near public places that are "target rich," "offender rich," and "guardian poor." We apply the theory to 193 outdoor rape locations in Campinas, Brazil, 2010-2013. We measure distances to the nearest bus stops, bars, and residences, then compare each of these to the distance from random points in the same city. Consistent with theory, outdoor rape victimizations occur disproportionately near bus stops and bars, but at least 250 meters away from the location of the nearest residence of any type. This baseline model suggests that urban planners could make women more secure from outdoor sexual attack by improving the design and location of public places, reducing the concealment of such places, and enhancing guardianship.

Spatial/Temporal Variations of Crime: A Routine Activity Theory Perspective.

Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevance of routine activity theory in a Latin American context. We use geo-referenced criminal event data, 2010-2013, analyzing spatial patterns using census tracts and temporal patterns considering seasons, months, days, and hours. Our analyses include difference in means tests, count-based regression models, and Kulldorff's scan test. We find that crime in Campinas, Brazil, exhibits both temporal and spatial-temporal patterns. However, the presence of these patterns at the different temporal scales varies by crime type. Specifically, not all crime types have statistically significant temporal patterns at all scales of analysis. As such, routine activity theory works well to explain temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil. However, local knowledge of Brazilian culture is necessary for understanding a portion of these crime patterns.