Comparison of Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis and Emergency Department SpO2, Age and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Scores in Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: As the mortality of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is significantly higher than those with mild or moderate severity, it is of clinical significance to identify patients most likely to develop SAP at the time of emergency department (ED) presentation. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare the performance of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and the Emergency Department SpO2, Age and SIRS (ED-SAS) scoring systems as early risk assessment tools for identifying patients at high-risk of developing SAP. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed adult patients with AP presented to ED between January 2019-September 2022. We calculated the scores of each patient with the parameters of the initial data. The primary outcome was SAP. The secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality, intensive care admission, and identifying low-risk patients without complications. RESULTS: Of 415 patients, 34 (8.2%) developed SAP and 15 (3.6%) died. With regard to predicting SAP, BISAP and ED-SAS scores had similar discriminative ability with area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.80-0.88) and 0.83 (95% CI:0.79-0.86), respectively (p = 0.642). At a cut-off score of ≥2 for SAP, sensitivity/specificity values were 73.5%/82.4% for BISAP, 76.5%/83.2% for ED-SAS. BISAP and ED-SAS scores of ≥3, yielded sensitivity/specificity values of 50%/95.8% and 35.3%/95.5%, respectively. BISAP and ED-SAS were also similar in predicting mortality (AUCs of 0.92 vs. 0.90, respectively) and intensive care unit admission (AUCs 0.91 vs. 0.91). CONCLUSION: The BISAP and ED-SAS scores performed similarly in predicting SAP, mortality, and intensive care unit admission. As an easily calculated tool early in the ED, ED-SAS may be helpful in disposition decisions for emergency physicians.

Comparison of the predictive values of CRP, CRP/albumin, RDW, neutrophil/lymphocyte, and platelet/lymphocyte levels in determining the severity of acute pancreatitis in patients with acute pancreatitis according to the BISAP score.

BACKGROUND: In our study, it was aimed to find out whether it would be possible to determine the disease severity by comparing the values of red cell distribution width (RDW), c-reactive protein (CRP), CRP/albumin, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with acute pancreatitis according to Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scores at the time of admission. METHODS: Five hundred patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis were included in the study. RESULTS: According to BISAP scores, 388 (77.6 %) patients were evaluated as having mild acute pancreatitis and 112 (22.4 %) patients as having severe acute pancreatitis. In ROC analysis, values of 70.54 % sensitivity and 70.10 % specificity for CRP, 71.43 % sensitivity and 70.88 % specificity for CRP/albumin, 80.36 % sensitivity and 30.30 % specificity for RDW, 75.00 % sensitivity and 43.98 % specificity for NLR, and 55.36 % sensitivity and 38.51 % specificity for PLR were determined. Values of 85.71 % sensitivity and 66.49 % specificity were determined for the NLR-CRP/Albumin-RDW 2** score as a newly created scoring system. CONCLUSION: CRP/albumin, NLR, PLR, and RDW values ​​were found to be statistically significantly higher in patients with severe acute pancreatitis compared to those with mild acute pancreatitis according to the BISAP score (pthat this scoring system could be a practical and reliable guide in the treatment and follow-up of patients with acute pancreatitis (Tab. 6, Fig. 3, Ref. 22).

Bedside index (BISAP) v/s Ranson scores in predicting mortality and severity in patients with acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis in comparison with Ranson scores in predicting mortalities and severities in patients with acute pancreatitis. METHODS: The cross-sectional study was conducted at the Department of Emergency Medicine, Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from July 1, 2017, to January 1, 2018, and comprised patients who presented with acute pancreatitis. The bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis score was applied in the emergency department and the patients were followed up in ward/intensive care unit where Ranson scores were calculated within the following 48 hours. Both the scores were calculated and compared for the prediction of severity and mortality for each patient. Data was analysed using SPSS 20. RESULTS: Of the 136 patients, 88(64.7%) were males and 48(35.3%) were females. The overall mean age was 42.04±16.42 years (16-75 years), On the basis of two scores, mild and moderate acute pancreatitis was diagnosed in 123(90.4%) and 119(87.5%) patients respectively, while severe condition was diagnosed in 13(9.6%) and 17(12.5%) patients respectively. The bedside index had specificity 94.62% compared to 91.54% for Ranson score; sensitivity 100% vs 100%; negative predictive value 100% vs 100%; positive predictive value 46.15% vs 35.29%; and diagnostic accuracy 94.85% vs 91.91%. CONCLUSIONS: The bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis and Ranson score were both found to be reliable tools in predicting mortalities and severities in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Urinary trypsinogen-2 level and local complications of acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Local complications of acute pancreatitis (AP) carry risks of morbidity/mortality. This study aimed to assess whether urinary trypsinogen-2 levels and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score on admission predicted subsequent local complications. METHODS: One hundred and forty-four consecutive patients with AP were prospectively followed till 6 months after discharge. Urinary trypsinogen-2 levels were measured within 24 h of admission. Local complications (acute peripancreatic fluid collection, acute necrotic collection, pseudocyst, and walled-off necrosis) were diagnosed by abdominal computed tomography. Cut-off for trypsinogen-2 level was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve, and predictors of local complications were analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Thirty-seven (25.7%) patients developed local complications. Urinary trypsinogen-2 levels were significantly higher in patients with local complications compared with those without local complications (median [interquartile range], 3210 [620-9764.4] µg/L vs 627.3 [72.3-5895] µg/L, P = 0.006). Urinary trypsinogen-2 significantly outperformed BISAP score in predicting local complications (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.65 [95% CI: 0.55-0.75] vs 0.48 [95% CI: 0.38-0.58], P = 0.005). At the optimal cut-off of 500 µg/L, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of trypsinogen-2 level were 78.4%, 45.8%, 33.3%, and 86.0%, respectively. Urinary trypsinogen-2 level > 500 µg/L was an independent predictor of local complications (adjusted odds ratio, 3.72; 95% CI: 1.42-9.76; P = 0.007). By contrast, BISAP score ≥ 3 and pleural effusion predicted organ failure but not local complications. CONCLUSION: In a prospective cohort, urinary trypsinogen-2 level > 500 µg/L independently predicted local complications of AP.

Accuracy of BISAP score in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of BISAP score in comparison with Ranson's score in detection of severe acute pancreatitis. METHODS: This cross sectional study was performed in Emergency department and Surgery department of Dow university hospital from January 2015 to December 2015. A total of 206 patients were included. Those diagnosed with acute pancreatitis on the basis of epigastric pain, serum amylase levels more than 300 (more than 3 times normal) and meeting the inclusion criteria were subjected to investigations for Ranson's and BISAP scoring. BISAP score was calculated at 24 hours and Ranson's score both at 24 and 48 hours. A score of > 3 was used to label severe acute pancreatitis according to both scoring systems. RESULTS: In our study accuracy to predict SAP by BISAP score was 76.2 % and Ranson's score was 82.2%. On the basis of sensitivity, Ranson's scores predicted SAP more accurately than BISAP scores (97.4% vs. 69.2%). Regarding specificity, both scores predicted SAP almost equally (78.4% vs. 77.8%). CONCLUSION: BISAP score is a valuable tool in predicting severe Acute Pancreatitis in early hours.

Role of early contrast enhanced CT scan in severity prediction of acute pancreatitis.

Severe pancreatitis occurs in approximately 15-25% of patients with acute pancreatitis. The objective of our study was to compare the CT Severity Index (CTSI) with a clinical score (BISAP score) to predict severity of acute pancreatitis. Forty-eight consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis who underwent contrast enhanced CT scan within 72 hours of presentation were included. Results of our study showed that both CTSI and BISAP score were reliable predictors of mortality (p value = 0.019 and <0.001 respectively) and need for mechanical ventilation (p value = .002 and .006 respectively). Positive predictive value of CTSI to predict recovery without intervention was 91.4% as compared to 78% for that of BISAP score. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curves showed CT scan was superior to BISAP Score in predicting need of percutaneous or surgical intervention. Early CT scan may be utilized for prediction of clinical course of patients with acute pancreatitis.

Acute Pancreatitis: What's the Score?

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common presentation in the emergency department (ED). Severity of pancreatitis is an important consideration for ED clinicians making admission judgments. Validated scoring systems can be a helpful tool in this process. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this review is to give a general outline on the subject of AP and compare different criteria used to predict severity of disease for use in the ED. DISCUSSION: This review updates the classifications and scoring systems for AP and the relevant parameters of each. This article assesses past and current scoring systems for AP, including Ranson criteria, Glasgow criteria, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), computed tomography imaging scoring systems, Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score, Panc 3, Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS), and the Japanese Severity Score. This article also describes the potential use of single variable predictors. Finally, this article discusses risk factors for early readmission, an outcome pertinent to emergency physicians. These parameters may be used to risk-stratify patients presenting to the ED into mild, moderate, and severe pancreatitis for determination of appropriate disposition. CONCLUSION: Rapid, reliable, and validated means of predicting patient outcome from rapid clinical assessment are of value to the emergency physician. Scoring systems such as BISAP, HAPS, and single-variable predictors may assist in decision-making due to their simplicity of use and applicability within the first 24 h.

A prospective study of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score in acute pancreatitis: an Indian perspective.

INTRODUCTION: A simple and easily applicable system for stratifying patients with acute pancreatitis is lacking. The aim of our study was to evaluate the ability of BISAP score to predict mortality in acute pancreatitis patients from our institution and to predict which patients are at risk for development of organ failure, persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis. METHODS: All patients with acute pancreatitis were included in the study. BISAP score was calculated within 24 h of admission. A Contrast CT was used to differentiate interstitial from necrotizing pancreatitis within seven days of hospitalization whereas Marshall Scoring System was used to characterize organ failure. RESULTS: Among 246 patients M:F = 153:93, most common aetiology among men was alcoholism and among women was gallstone disease. 207 patients had no organ failure and remaining 39 developed organ failure. 17 patients had persistent organ failure, 16 of those with BISAP score ≥3. 13 patients in our study died, out of which 12 patients had BISAP score ≥3. We also found that a BISAP score of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 92%, specificity of 76%, a positive predictive value of 17%, and a negative predictive value of 99% for mortality. DISCUSSION: The BISAP score is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in hospital mortality and morbidity.

Usefulness of Dynamic Assessment of Clinical and Laboratory Factors in Severe Acute Pancreatitis.

Background/Objectives: Early identification of patients at risk of developing severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is still an issue. Dynamic assessment of clinical and laboratory parameters within the first 48 h of admission may offer valuable insights into the prediction of unfavorable outcomes such as SAP and death. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted on a cohort of patients admitted for AP at a tertiary referral hospital. Clinical and laboratory data were collected on admission and at 48 h. Patients were classified based on the Revised Atlanta classification. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for SAP. Likelihood ratios and post-test probabilities were calculated to assess the clinical usefulness of predictive markers. Results: 227 patients were included, with biliary etiology being the most common and a prevalence of SAP and death of 10.7% and 5.7%, respectively. BISAP ≥ 2 on admission, presence of SIRS after 48 h, rise in heart rate over 20 bpm, and any increase in BUN after 48 h were independent risk factors for SAP. The combination of these factors increased the post-test probability of SAP and death, with BISAP ≥ 2 combined with the presence of SIRS after 48 h showing the highest probability (82% and 73%, respectively). Conclusions: Dynamic assessment of BUN, heart rate, and SIRS within the first 48 h of admission can aid in predicting the development of SAP and death in patients with AP. These findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring, although multicenter studies are warranted to refine predictive models for SAP.

Modified Bedside Index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score validation in the national inpatient sample database.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to build and validate modified score to be used in the healthcare cost and utilization project databases for further classification of acute pancreatitis (AP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The National Inpatient Sample database for the years 2016-2019 was queried for all primary adult discharge diagnoses of AP. An mBISAP score system was created utilizing the ICD-10CM codes for pleural effusion, encephalopathy, acute kidney injury, systemic inflammatory response, and age >60. Each was assigned a 1-point score. A multivariable regression analysis was built to test for mortality. Sensitivity and specificity analyses were performed for mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1,160,869 primary discharges for AP were identified between 2016 and 2019. The pooled mortality rate was: 0.1%, 0.5%, 2.9%, 12.7%, 30.9% and 17.8% (P â€‹< â€‹0.01), respectively for scores 0 to 5. Multivariable regression analysis showed increasing odds of mortality with each one-point increment: mBISAP score of 1 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.69-9.48), score of 2 (aOR 37.87; 95% CI 26.05- 55.03), score of 3 (aOR 189.38; 95% CI 127.47-281.38), score of 4 (aOR 535.38; 95% CI 331.74-864.02), score of 5 (aOR 184.38; 95% CI 53.91-630.60). Using a cut-off of ≥3, sensitivity and specificity analyses reported 27.0% and 97.7%, respectively, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.811. CONCLUSION: In this 4-year retrospective study of a US representative database, an mBISAP score was constructed showing increasing odds of mortality with each 1-point increase and a specificity of 97.7% for a cut-off of ≥3.

Comparison of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis and Modified Computed Tomography Severity Index Scores in Predicting the Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis in a Tertiary Care Centre in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: It is important to identify the severity of acute pancreatitis in the early course of the disease. METHODS: This prospective observational study included 83 patients with acute pancreatitis. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis scores were assessed within 24 hours of admission, and the modified computed tomography severity index score was calculated in those patients who underwent contrast enhanced computed tomography.  The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of scoring systems were calculated. The area under the curve was calculated for assessing the prognostic value of scoring systems. RESULTS: The modified computed tomography severity index was the most accurate score in predicting severity and local complications with an area under the curve of 0.92 and 0.91, respectively. The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score was the most accurate in predicting organ failure and the need for intensive care unit admission with an area under the curve of 0.70 and 0.78 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate that modified computed tomography severity index and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis scores had overall better predictive value than the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score in predicting severity, organ failure, local complication, and need for intensive care unit admission.

Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment.

BACKGROUND: Scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP. METHODS: Following PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned. RESULTS: 43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: The most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making.

NLR48 is Better Than CRP, and mCTSI, and Similar to BISAP and SOFA Scores for Mortality Prediction in Acute Pancreatitis: A Comparison of 6 Scores.

Introduction: The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been suggested as a reliable marker for predicting inflammation progression and severity of acute pancreatitis, although the role of the NLR stratified by etiology is still insufficiently studied. However, the NLR's role in mortality prediction was poorly evaluated in the literature. Patients and Methods: We performed a retrospective, cross-sectional study to analyze the role of NLR0 (at admission) and NLR48 (at 48 hours) in acute pancreatitis as compared with CRP, BISAP, SOFA, and modified CTSI (mCTSI) for the prediction of mortality and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in patients admitted into the Emergency Clinical County Hospital of Craiova during 48 months. The primary assessed outcomes were the rate of in-hospital mortality, the rate of persistent organ failure, and ICU admissions. We analyzed mortality prediction for all acute pancreatitis, for biliary, alcoholic, and hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis, for severe forms, and for patients admitted to the ICU. Results: A total of 725 patients were selected; 42.4% had biliary acute pancreatitis, 27.7% had alcoholic acute pancreatitis, and 8.7% had hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis. A total of 13.6% had POF during admission. The AUC for NLR48 in predicting mortality risk and SAP was 0.81 and 0.785, superior to NLR0, CRP48, and mCTSI but inferior to BISAP and SOFA scores. The NLR48/NLR0 ratio did not add significantly to the accuracy. NLR0 and NLR48 performed poorly for mortality prediction in severe forms and in patients admitted to the ICU. NLR48 has good accuracy in our study for predicting death risk in biliary and alcoholic acute pancreatitis but not in hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis. Conclusion: NLR48 was a good indicator in predicting mortality risk and severe forms in all patients with acute pancreatitis, but not of death in SAP and in patients admitted to ICU, with good accuracy for predicting death risk in biliary and alcoholic acute pancreatitis but not in hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis.

Comparative Evaluation of Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS) and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) Scoring System in the Stratification of Prognosis in Acute Pancreatitis.

Acute pancreatitis is a common disease in patients presenting to the emergency room in any hospital. The most common causes are alcohol ingestion and gallstone disease. Diagnosis is usually based on clinical findings and elevated serum amylase and lipase levels. Imaging is often not necessary but may be used to confirm the diagnosis or rule out any other pathology or to evaluate for any complications. The majority of patients will have a mild, self-limiting disease but others may develop a severe fulminant course with organ failure. These patients are at high risk of developing complications, morbidity or mortality. Treatment of acute pancreatitis includes supportive treatment with antibiotics, fluids, analgesics and early enteral feeding. Several scores have been developed to predict the course of pancreatitis and help make informed decisions, monitoring and timely intervention. The majority of them are complicated, require extensive and expensive interventions or require time. Harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS) is one such score that is easy to calculate and is done at the time of admission, bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) is another one requiring more parameters. The parameters used to calculate it are easily available and can be done at a majority of healthcare facilities in developing countries. HAPS thus seems to be a good option in aiding doctors in assessing acute pancreatitis. It may be considered as a standard scoring for acute pancreatitis for early and effective management. We have tried to study and compare the superiority of HAPS over BISAP in predicting prognosis in acute pancreatitis.

Acute Pancreatitis Severity Prediction: It Is Time to Use Artificial Intelligence.

The clinical course of acute pancreatitis (AP) can be variable depending on the severity of the disease, and it is crucial to predict the probability of organ failure to initiate early adequate treatment and management. Therefore, possible high-risk patients should be admitted to a high-dependence unit. For risk assessment, we have three options: (1) There are univariate biochemical markers for predicting severe AP. One of their main characteristics is that the absence or excess of these factors affects the outcome of AP in a dose-dependent manner. Unfortunately, all of these parameters have low accuracy; therefore, they cannot be used in clinical settings. (2) Score systems have been developed to prognosticate severity by using 4-25 factors. They usually require multiple parameters that are not measured on a daily basis, and they often require more than 24 h for completion, resulting in the loss of valuable time. However, these scores can foresee specific organ failure or severity, but they only use dichotomous parameters, resulting in information loss. Therefore, their use in clinical settings is limited. (3) Artificial intelligence can detect the complex nonlinear relationships between multiple biochemical parameters and disease outcomes. We have recently developed the very first easy-to-use tool, EASY-APP, which uses multiple continuous variables that are available at the time of admission. The web-based application does not require all of the parameters for prediction, allowing early and easy use on admission. In the future, prognostic scores should be developed with the help of artificial intelligence to avoid information loss and to provide a more individualized risk assessment.

Predicting the Success of Catheter Drainage in Infected Necrotising Pancreatitis: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study.

Background Management of acute necrotising pancreatitis is often challenging for clinicians. Secondary infection of the necrotic collections leads to sepsis and warrants intervention. Minimally invasive techniques like catheter drainage have recently been proposed over more risky and morbid traditional open procedures. Factors that can predict successful catheter drainage of the necrotic pancreatic collection are still unclear and not well established. Materials and methods This study is designed as a retrospective cross-sectional observational study to investigate the association of 21 factors in predicting successful catheter drainage. Data from 30 patients admitted with acute necrotising pancreatitis treated with catheter drainage were collected and analysed. Twenty-one factors, including demographic variables, disease severity factors, drainage criteria, and morphological criteria on imaging, were studied for their predictive association with successful outcomes. Univariate analysis was done for each variable against the outcome. The study was conducted between December 2012 to March 2017. P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Patients with no organ involvement responded better to primary catheter drainage. Patients with BMI>25 and multi-organ failure were poor candidates for primary catheter drainage. Clinically unwell patients with a Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score of ≥4 had a negative outcome on catheter drainage and usually ended up in a surgical procedure or eventually succumbed to the disease. Other variables included in our study did not statistically associate with the success or failure of percutaneous catheter drainage. Conclusion BMI >25, multiple organ failure, and BISAP score ≥ 4 are independent negative predictors for the success of catheter drainage in infected necrotising pancreatitis. No organ failure showed a positive predictor for successful catheter drainage. Further studies are required to explore these predictive factors in a larger sample size to predict the success of catheter drainage in infected pancreatic necrosis.

Predictive value of the C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.

Aim: To investigate the predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) to serum albumin (ALB) ratio in the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP), and compare the predictive value of the CRP/ALB ratio with the Ranson score, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI) score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score. Methods: This cohort study retrospectively analyzed clinical data of AP patients from August 2018 to August 2020 in our hospital. Logistic regression analysis was utilized to determine the effects of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score on severe AP (SAP), pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and death. The predictive values of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score were examined with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. DeLong test was used to compare the AUCs between CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score. Results: Totally, 284 patients were included in this study, of which 35 AP patients (12.32%) developed SAP, 29 (10.21%) organ failure, 30 (10.56%) pancreatic necrosis and 11 (3.87%) died. The result revealed that CRP/ALB ratio on day 2 was associated with SAP [odds ratio (OR): 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32 to 2.29], death (OR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.24 to 2.41), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.28, 95%CI: 1.08 to 1.50), and organ failure (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.18 to 1.73) in AP patients. Similarly, CRP/ALB on day 3 was related to a higher risk of SAP (OR: 1.50, 95%CI: 1.24 to 1.81), death (OR: 1.8, 95%CI: 1.34 to 2.65), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.42), and organ failure (OR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.41). The predictive value of CRP/ALB ratio for pancreatic necrosis was lower than that of MCTSI, for organ failure was lower than that of Ranson and BISAP, and for death was higher than that of MCTSI. Conclusion: The CRP/ALB ratio may be a novel but promising, easily measurable, reproducible, non-invasive prognostic score that can be used to predict SAP, death, pancreatic necrosis, and organ failure in AP patients, which can be a supplement of Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP scores.

Acute Kidney Injury Complicating Severe Acute Pancreatitis: Clinical Profile and Factors Predicting Mortality.

Introduction: Acute kidney injury (AKI) frequently complicates severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) among the critically ill. We studied clinical profile and risk factors predicting mortality in SAP-AKI. Materials and Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study of 68 patients with SAP-AKI from September 2015 to September 2019. Patient data and outcomes grouped as survivors and deceased were analyzed. Results: SAP-AKI constituted 2.14% (68 of 3,169) of all AKIs with 1.5%, 20.6%, and 77.9% in Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Stages I, II and III respectively. The mean age was 39.93 ± 11.79 years with males 65 (95.6%). The causes of acute pancreatitis were alcohol addiction 59 (86.8%), highly active antiretroviral therapy 1 (1.4%), hypercalcemia 1 (1.4%), IgG4-related disease 1 (1.4%), and unidentified 6 (8.8%). Complications were volume overload, shock, respiratory failure, and necrotizing pancreatitis in 21 (30.9%), 10 (14.7%), 6 (8.8%), and 14 (20.5%), respectively. Kidney replacement therapy done in 40 (58%), with intermittent hemodialysis 36 (53%) and acute intermittent peritoneal dialysis 4 (6%). The overall mortality was 23 (33.8%), three progressed to chronic kidney disease (thrombotic microangiopathy 2; biopsy inconclusive 1). In 45 survivors, AKI recovered in 22.7 ± 9.6 days. Death occurred within first 6 days. The risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality was necrotizing pancreatitis (odds ratio [OR] = 5.143; 95% confidence interval 1.472-17.972; P = 0.01), circulatory failure (OR = 6.125; P = 0.016), peak creatinine >3 mg/dL (OR = 7.118; P = 0.068), Bedside Index of Severity for Acute Pancreatitis score >3 (OR = 8.472; P = 0.001), need for kidney replacement therapy (OR = 3.764; P = 0.024), KDIGO III (OR = 9.935; P = 0.03). Conclusions: Alcohol addiction was the commonest cause of severe acute pancreatitis. The overall mortality was 33.8%. Necrotizing pancreatitis, circulatory failure, peak creatinine >3 mg/dL, BISAPs >3, KDIGO III, and the need for kidney replacement therapy were independent risk factors for mortality.

Thrombo-Inflammatory Prognostic Scores Improve BISAP-Based Risk Stratification in Acute Pancreatitis Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Purpose: The thrombo-inflammatory prognostic score (TIPS) and the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) are both scoring systems that enable the rapid prognostic assessment of early-stage acute pancreatitis (AP) patients, but the overall prognostic utility of these individual systems is limited. This study was thus developed to explore whether a combination of TIPS and BISAP scores would offer better insight to facilitate the risk stratification of AP patients. Methods: This single-center retrospective cohort research evaluated AP cases referred to the emergency department from January 1, 2017 to September 30, 2017. The ability of TIPS scores to improve BISAP-based AP patient risk stratification was appraised employing the curves of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) approaches. The initial endpoint for this research was 28-day mortality, while secondary endpoints comprised intensive care unit admission (AICU) and mechanical ventilation (MV) over a 28-day follow-up period. Results: Totally, 440 cases enrolled in the current study were divided at a ratio of 1:1 to derivation and validation cohorts. When estimating 28-day mortality, the combination of TIPS and BISAP (T-BISAP) improved the area under the curve (AUC) value in the derivation group from 0.809 to 0.903 (P < 0.05), in addition to similarly improving this AUC value from 0.709 to 0.853 (P < 0.05) in the validation cohort. Moreover, T-BISAP significantly improved the AUC values for 28-day AICU from 0.751 to 0.824 (P < 0.05) and the AUC values for 28-day MV from 0.755 to 0.808 (P < 0.05). A DCA approach revealed T-BISAP to exhibit higher net benefit when used for patient risk stratification as compared to BISAP alone. Conclusion: The addition of TIPS scores to BISAP scores can enable prediction of 28-day adverse clinical outcomes with AP patients in the ED.

The role of the BISAP score in predicting acute pancreatitis severity according to the revised Atlanta classification: a single tertiary care unit experience from Turkey.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: In this study, we examine the utility of Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), which is an increasingly more commonly used simple and practical novel scoring system for predicting the prognosis and severity of the disease at presentation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients diagnosed with AP between January 2013 and December 2020 were evaluated retrospectively. The AP severity was assessed using the revised Atlanta classification (RAC). BISAP score, demographic characteristics, pancreatitis etiology, pancreatitis history, duration of hospital stay, and mortality rates of the patients were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 1000 adult patients were included, of whom 589 (58.9%) were female and 411 (41.1%) were male. The mean age in female and male patients was 62.15 ± 17.79 and 58.1 ± 16.33 years, respectively (p >0.05). The most common etiological factor was biliary AP (55.8%), followed by idiopathic AP (23%). Based on RAC, 389 (38.9%), 418 (41.8%), and 193 (19.3%) patients had mild, moderate, and severe AP. Of the 1000 patients, 42 (4.2%) died. Significant predictors of mortality included advanced age (>65 y) (p=0.003), hypertension (p=0.007), and ischemic heart disease (p=0.001). A BISAP score of ≥3 had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 79.79%, 91.57%, 69.37%, and 94.99%, respectively, for determining SAP patients according to RAC. CONCLUSION: BISAP is an effective scoring system with a high NPV in predicting the severity of AP in the early course of the disease in a Turkish population.