Elevated plasma level of Pentraxin 3 is associated with emphysema and mortality in smokers.

BACKGROUND: Pentraxin 3 (PTX3) influences innate immunity and inflammation, host defence, the complement cascade and angiogenesis. PTX3 expression in lung and blood of subjects with tobacco exposure, and its potential relationship with disease pattern and clinical outcome are poorly understood. METHODS: Using independent platforms and cohorts, we identified associations of PTX3 gene expression in lung tissue and plasma from current and former tobacco smokers (with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) to disease phenotypes including quantitative CT determined emphysema, lung function, symptoms and survival. Two putative regulatory variants of the PTX3 gene were examined for association with COPD manifestations. The relationship between plasma PTX3 and hyaluronic acid levels was further examined. RESULTS: PTX3 gene expression in lung tissue was directly correlated with emphysema severity (p<0.0001). Circulating levels of PTX3 were inversely correlated with FEV1 (p=0.006), and positively associated with emphysema severity (p=0.004) and mortality (p=0.008). Two PTX3 gene regulatory variants were associated with a lower risk for emphysema and expiratory airflow obstruction, and plasma levels of PTX3 and hyaluronic acid were related. CONCLUSIONS: These data show strong and overlapping associations of lung and blood PTX3 levels, and PTX3 regulatory gene variants, with the severity of airflow obstruction, emphysema and mortality among smokers. These findings have potential implications regarding the pathogenesis of smoking-related lung diseases and warrant further exploration for the use of PTX3 as a predictive biomarker.

BET proteins are associated with the induction of small airway fibrosis in COPD.

RATIONALE: In COPD, small airway fibrosis occurs due to increased extracellular matrix (ECM) deposition in and around the airway smooth muscle (ASM) layer. Studies of immune cells and peripheral lung tissue have shown that epigenetic changes occur in COPD but it is unknown whether airway mesenchymal cells are reprogrammed. OBJECTIVES: Determine if COPD ASM cells have a unique epigenetic response to profibrotic cytokine transforming growth factor ß1 (TGF-ß1). METHODS: Primary human ASM cells from COPD and non-COPD smoking patients were stimulated with TGF-ß1. Gene array analysis performed to identify differences in ECM expression. Airway accumulation of collagen 15α1 and tenascin-C proteins was assessed. Aforementioned ASM cells were stimulated with TGF-ß1 ± epigenetic inhibitors with qPCR quantification of COL15A1 and TNC. Global histone acetyltransferase (HAT) and histone deacetylase (HDAC) activity were assessed. chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP)-qPCR for histone H3 and H4 acetylation at COL15A1 and TNC promoters was carried out. Effects of bromoterminal and extraterminal domain (BET) inhibitor JQ1(+) on expression and acetylation of ECM target genes were assessed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: COPD ASM show significantly higher COL15A1 and TNC expression in vitro and the same trend for higher levels of collagen 15α1 and tenascin-c deposited in COPD airways in vivo. Epigenetic screening indicated differential response to HDAC inhibition. ChIP-qPCR revealed histone H4 acetylation at COL15A1 and TNC promoters in COPD ASM only. ChIP-qPCR found JQ1(+) pretreatment significantly abrogated TGF-ß1 induced histone H4 acetylation at COL15A1 and TNC. CONCLUSIONS: BET protein binding to acetylated histones is important in TGF-ß1 induced expression of COL15A1 and TNC and maintenance of TGF-ß1 induced histone H4 acetylation in cell progeny.

Role of the IL-33/ST2 axis in cigarette smoke-induced airways remodelling in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Efficient therapy and potential prophylaxis are confounded by current ignorance of the pathogenesis of airway remodelling and blockade in COPD. OBJECTIVE: To explore the role of the IL-33/ST2 axis in cigarette smoke (CS) exposure-induced airways remodelling. METHODS: C57BL/6, BALB/c and IL-1RL1 -/- mice exposed to CS were used to establish an animal surrogate of COPD (air-exposed=5~8, CS-exposed=6~12). Hallmarks of remodelling were measured in mice. Cigarette smoke extract (CSE)-induced proliferation and protein production in vitro by fibroblasts in the presence of anti-interleukin-33 (anti-IL-33) or hST2 antibodies were measured. Expression of IL-33 and ST2 and other remodelling hallmarks were measured, respectively, in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) (controls=20, COPD=20), serum (controls=59, COPD=90) and lung tissue sections (controls=11, COPD=7) from patients with COPD and controls. RESULTS: Wild-type mice exposed to CS elevated expression of hallmarks of tissue remodelling in the lungs and also in the heart, spleen and kidneys, which were significantly abrogated in the IL-1RL1 -/- mice. Fibroblasts exposed to CSE, compared with control, exhibited early cellular translocation of IL-33, accompanied by proliferation and elevated protein synthesis, all inhabitable by blockade of IL-33/ST2 signalling. Expression of IL-33 and ST2 and hallmarks of tissue remodelling were significantly and proportionally elevated in BALF, serum and tissue samples from patients with COPD. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to CS induces remodelling changes in multiple organs. The data support the hypothesis that CS-induced lung collagen deposition is at least partly a result of CS-induced IL-33 translocation and release from local fibroblasts.

DNA methylation is associated with airflow obstruction in patients living with HIV.

INTRODUCTION: People living with HIV (PLWH) suffer from age-related comorbidities such as COPD. The processes responsible for reduced lung function in PLWH are largely unknown. We performed an epigenome-wide association study to investigate whether blood DNA methylation is associated with impaired lung function in PLWH. METHODS: Using blood DNA methylation profiles from 161 PLWH, we tested the effect of methylation on FEV1, FEV1/FVC ratio and FEV1 decline over a median of 5 years. We evaluated the global methylation of PLWH with airflow obstruction by testing the differential methylation of transposable elements Alu and LINE-1, a well-described marker of epigenetic ageing. RESULTS: Airflow obstruction as defined by a FEV1/FVC<0.70 was associated with 1393 differentially methylated positions (DMPs), while 4676 were associated with airflow obstruction based on the FEV1/FVC

Associations of CT evaluations of antigravity muscles, emphysema and airway disease with longitudinal outcomes in patients with COPD.

Multiple CT indices are associated with disease progression and mortality in patients with COPD, but which indices have the strongest association remain unestablished. This longitudinal 10-year observational study (n=247) showed that the emphysema severity on CT is more closely associated with the progression of airflow limitation and that a reduction in the cross-sectional area of erector spinae muscles (ESMCSA) on CT is more closely associated with mortality than the other CT indices, independent of patient demographics and pulmonary function. ESMCSA is a useful CT index that is more closely associated with long-term mortality than emphysema and airway disease in patients with COPD.

Characterisation of gas exchange in COPD with dissolved-phase hyperpolarised xenon-129 MRI.

To investigate whether hyperpolarised xenon-129 MRI (HXeMRI) enables regional and physiological resolution of diffusing capacity limitations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), we evaluated 34 COPD subjects and 11 healthy volunteers. We report significant correlations between airflow abnormality quantified by HXeMRI and per cent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s; HXeMRI gas transfer capacity to red blood cells and carbon monoxide diffusion capacity (%DLCO); and HXeMRI gas transfer capacity to interstitium and per cent emphysema quantified by multidetector chest CT. We further demonstrate the capability of HXeMRI to distinguish varying pathology underlying COPD in subjects with low %DLCO and minimal emphysema.

Protective effect of club cell secretory protein (CC-16) on COPD risk and progression: a Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: The anti-inflammatory pneumoprotein club cell secretory protein-16 (CC-16) is associated with the clinical expression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to determine if there is a causal effect of serum CC-16 level on the risk of having COPD and/or its progression using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis for serum CC-16 in two COPD cohorts (Lung Health Study (LHS), n=3850 and ECLIPSE, n=1702). We then used the CC-16-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as instrumental variables in MR analysis to identify a causal effect of serum CC-16 on 'COPD risk' (ie, case status in the International COPD Genetics Consortium/UK-Biobank dataset; n=35 735 COPD cases, n=222 076 controls) and 'COPD progression' (ie, annual change in forced expiratory volume in 1 s in LHS and ECLIPSE). We also determined the associations between SNPs associated with CC-16 and gene expression using n=1111 lung tissue samples from the Lung Expression Quantitative Trait Locus Study. RESULTS: We identified seven SNPs independently associated (p<5×10-8) with serum CC-16 levels; six of these were novel. MR analysis suggested a protective causal effect of increased serum CC-16 on COPD risk (MR estimate (SE) -0.11 (0.04), p=0.008) and progression (LHS only, MR estimate (SE) 7.40 (3.28), p=0.02). Five of the SNPs were also associated with gene expression in lung tissue (at false discovery rate <0.1) of several genes, including the CC-16-encoding gene SCGB1A1. CONCLUSION: We have identified several novel genetic variants associated with serum CC-16 level in COPD cohorts. These genetic associations suggest a potential causal effect of serum CC-16 on the risk of having COPD and its progression, the biological basis of which warrants further investigation.

Per cent low attenuation volume and fractal dimension of low attenuation clusters on CT predict different long-term outcomes in COPD.

BACKGROUND: Fractal dimension (D) characterises the size distribution of low attenuation clusters on CT and assesses the spatial heterogeneity of emphysema that per cent low attenuation volume (%LAV) cannot detect. This study tested the hypothesis that %LAV and D have different roles in predicting decline in FEV1, exacerbation and mortality in patients with COPD. METHODS: Chest inspiratory CT scans in the baseline and longitudinal follow-up records for FEV1, exacerbation and mortality prospectively collected over 10 years in the Hokkaido COPD Cohort Study were examined (n=96). The associations between CT measures and long-term outcomes were replicated in the Kyoto University cohort (n=130). RESULTS: In the Hokkaido COPD cohort, higher %LAV, but not D, was associated with a greater decline in FEV1 and 10-year mortality, whereas lower D, but not %LAV, was associated with shorter time to first exacerbation. Multivariable analysis for the Kyoto University cohort confirmed that lower D at baseline was independently associated with shorter time to first exacerbation and that higher LAV% was independently associated with increased mortality after adjusting for age, height, weight, FEV1 and smoking status. CONCLUSION: These well-established cohorts clarify the different prognostic roles of %LAV and D, whereby lower D is associated with a higher risk of exacerbation and higher %LAV is associated with a rapid decline in lung function and long-term mortality. Combination of %LAV and fractal D may identify COPD subgroups at high risk of a poor clinical outcome more sensitively.

Integrated proteogenomic approach identifying a protein signature of COPD and a new splice variant of SORBS1.

Translation of genomic alterations to protein changes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is largely unexplored. Using integrated proteomic and RNA sequencing analysis of COPD and control lung tissues, we identified a protein signature in COPD characterised by extracellular matrix changes and a potential regulatory role for SUMO2. Furthermore, we identified 61 differentially expressed novel, non-reference, peptides in COPD compared with control lungs. This included two peptides encoding for a new splice variant of SORBS1, of which the transcript usage was higher in COPD compared with control lungs. These explorative findings and integrative proteogenomic approach open new avenues to further unravel the pathology of COPD.

Extracorporeal CO2 removal (ECCO2R) in patients with stable COPD with chronic hypercapnia: a proof-of-concept study.

Domiciliary non-invasive ventilation (NIV) effectively reduces arterial carbon dioxide pressure (PaCO2) in patients with stable hypercapnic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but a consistent percentage of them may remain hypercapnic. We hypothesised that extracorporeal CO2 removal (ECCO2R) may lower their PaCO2 Ten patients hypercapnic despite ≥6 months of NIV underwent a 24-hour trial of ECCO2R. Six patients completed the ECCO2R-trial with a PaCO2 drop ranging between 23% and 47%. Time to return to baseline after interruption ranged 48-96 hours. In four patients, mechanical events led to ECCO2R premature interruption, despite a decreased in PaCO2 This time window 'free' from hypercapnia might allow to propose the concept of 'CO2 dialysis'.

Minimum important difference of the incremental shuttle walk test distance in patients with COPD.

We aimed to describe the minimum important difference (MID) of the incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) in patients with COPD using both distribution and anchor-based methods. Two cohorts were used (n=613) with eligibility criteria of a clinical diagnosis of COPD, an FEV1/FVC <70% and an ISWT (after familiarisation) before and after a 7-week course of pulmonary rehabilitation (PR). The MID of the ISWT using the distribution method was 36.1 m. The area under the curve to discriminate between perceived 'improvement' and 'no improvement' after PR for a change in ISWT of 35 m was 0.66 (0.58-0.73). The MID of the ISWT is therefore between 35.0 and 36.1 m.

Automated O2 titration improves exercise capacity in patients with hypercapnic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a randomised controlled cross-over trial.

Automatically titrated O2 flows (FreeO2) was compared with constant O2 flow on exercise capacity, O2 saturation and risk of hyperoxia-related hypercapnia in patients with severe COPD with baseline hypercapnia and long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT). Twelve patients were enrolled in a randomised double-blind cross-over study to perform exercise with either FreeO2 or constant flow. Endurance time (primary outcome) and SpO2 were both significantly improved with FreeO2compared with constant flow (p<0.04), although pCO2 was similar in both conditions. Automated titration of O2 significantly and clinically improved endurance walking time in patients with severe COPD receiving LTOT, without worsening of pCO2 TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Results , NCT01575327.

Lung volume indices predict morbidity in smokers with preserved spirometry.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal lung volumes that reflect air trapping are common in COPD. However, their significance in smokers with preserved spirometry (normal FEV1 to FVC ratio) is unclear. METHODS: Using the Veterans Administration Informatics and Computing Infrastructure database, we identified 7479 patients at risk for COPD (ever smokers >40 years of age without restrictive lung disease) who had preserved spirometry and concomitant lung volume measurements, and examined their subsequent health records for clinical diagnoses of COPD, healthcare utilisation, follow-up spirometry and mortality. RESULTS: Air trapping was prevalent, with 31% of patients having residual volume to total lung capacity ratio (RV:TLC) greater than the upper limit of normal (ULN). RV:TLC varied widely from 14% to 77% (51% to 204% of predicted) across the normal ranges of FEV1:FVC and FEV1. Patients with RV:TLC greater than the ULN were more likely to receive subsequent clinical diagnoses of COPD (HR (95% CI)=1.55 (1.42 to 1.70), p<0.001) and had higher all-cause mortality (HR (95% CI)=1.41 (1.29 to 1.54), p<0.001). They had higher rates of respiratory medication prescriptions and hospital and intensive care unit admissions. Other air trapping and static hyperinflation indices showed similar associations with health outcomes. Additionally, high-normal RV:TLC was associated with intermediate adverse health outcomes compared with low-normal and abnormal RV:TLC. Abnormal RV:TLC predicted higher likelihood of progression to spirometric COPD (OR (95% CI)=1.30 (1.03 to 1.65), p=0.027). CONCLUSION: In this study of the Veterans Affairs electronic health records, air trapping was common in smokers with preserved spirometry and predicted adverse respiratory outcomes and progression to overt COPD.

Gait speed and pedestrian crossings in COPD.

The assumed minimum walking speed at pedestrian crossings is 1.2 m/s. In this prospective cohort study, usual walking speed was measured over a 4 m course in 926 community-dwelling, ambulatory patients with stable COPD. Mean (SD) walking speed was 0.91 (0.24) m/s with only 10.7% walking at a speed equal or greater than 1.2 m/s. In order for 95% of this cohort to safely negotiate a pedestrian cross, traffic lights would have to assume a minimum walking speed of 0.50 m/s (2.4 times longer than current times). The current assumed normal walking speed for pedestrian crossings is inappropriate for patients with COPD.The studies were registered on clinicaltrials.gov and these data relate to the pre-results stage: NCT01649193, NCT01515709 and NCT01507415.

Longitudinal profiling of the lung microbiome in the AERIS study demonstrates repeatability of bacterial and eosinophilic COPD exacerbations.

BACKGROUND: Alterations in the composition of the lung microbiome associated with adverse clinical outcomes, known as dysbiosis, have been implicated with disease severity and exacerbations in COPD. OBJECTIVE: To characterise longitudinal changes in the lung microbiome in the AERIS study (Acute Exacerbation and Respiratory InfectionS in COPD) and their relationship with associated COPD outcomes. METHODS: We surveyed 584 sputum samples from 101 patients with COPD to analyse the lung microbiome at both stable and exacerbation time points over 1 year using high-throughput sequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene. We incorporated additional lung microbiology, blood markers and in-depth clinical assessments to classify COPD phenotypes. RESULTS: The stability of the lung microbiome over time was more likely to be decreased in exacerbations and within individuals with higher exacerbation frequencies. Analysis of exacerbation phenotypes using a Markov chain model revealed that bacterial and eosinophilic exacerbations were more likely to be repeated in subsequent exacerbations within a subject, whereas viral exacerbations were not more likely to be repeated. We also confirmed the association of bacterial genera, including Haemophilus and Moraxella, with disease severity, exacerbation events and bronchiectasis. CONCLUSIONS: Subtypes of COPD have distinct bacterial compositions and stabilities over time. Some exacerbation subtypes have non-random probabilities of repeating those subtypes in the future. This study provides insights pertaining to the identification of bacterial targets in the lung and biomarkers to classify COPD subtypes and to determine appropriate treatments for the patient. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Results, NCT01360398.

Lung tissue gene-expression signature for the ageing lung in COPD.

INTRODUCTION: COPD is a chronic, progressive, inflammatory disease of the lungs and the third leading cause of death worldwide. The current knowledge of the pathophysiology of COPD is limited and novel insights in underlying disease mechanisms are urgently needed. Since there are clear parallels between ageing and COPD, we investigated genes underlying lung ageing in general and abnormal lung ageing in COPD. METHODS: Whole genome mRNA profiling was performed on lung tissue samples (n=1197) and differential gene expression with increasing age was analysed using an adjusted linear regression model. Subsequent pathway analysis was performed using GeneNetwork and the gene-expression signature was compared with lung ageing in the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project. In a subset of patients with COPD (n=311) and non-COPD controls (n=270), we performed an interaction analysis between age and COPD to identify genes differentially expressed with age in COPD compared with controls, followed by gene set enrichment pathway analysis. RESULTS: We identified a strong gene-expression signature for lung ageing with 3509 differentially expressed genes, of which 33.5% were found nominal significant in the GTEx project. Interestingly, we found EDA2R as a strong candidate gene for lung ageing. The age*COPD interaction analysis revealed 69 genes significantly differentially expressed with age between COPD and controls. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that processes related to lung development, cell-cell contacts, calcium signalling and immune responses are involved in lung ageing in general. Pathways related to extracellular matrix, mammalian target of rapamycin signalling, splicing of introns and exons and the ribosome complex are proposed to be involved in abnormal lung ageing in COPD.

Randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with azithromycin selects for anti-inflammatory microbial metabolites in the emphysematous lung.

INTRODUCTION: Azithromycin (AZM) reduces pulmonary inflammation and exacerbations in patients with COPD having emphysema. The antimicrobial effects of AZM on the lower airway microbiome are not known and may contribute to its beneficial effects. Here we tested whether AZM treatment affects the lung microbiome and bacterial metabolites that might contribute to changes in levels of inflammatory cytokines in the airways. METHODS: 20 smokers (current or ex-smokers) with emphysema were randomised to receive AZM 250 mg or placebo daily for 8 weeks. Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was performed at baseline and after treatment. Measurements performed in acellular BAL fluid included 16S rRNA gene sequences and quantity; 39 cytokines, chemokines and growth factors and 119 identified metabolites. The response to lipopolysaccharide (LPS) by alveolar macrophages after ex-vivo treatment with AZM or bacterial metabolites was assessed. RESULTS: Compared with placebo, AZM did not alter bacterial burden but reduced α-diversity, decreasing 11 low abundance taxa, none of which are classical pulmonary pathogens. Compared with placebo, AZM treatment led to reduced in-vivo levels of chemokine (C-X-C) ligand 1 (CXCL1), tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α, interleukin (IL)-13 and IL-12p40 in BAL, but increased bacterial metabolites including glycolic acid, indol-3-acetate and linoleic acid. Glycolic acid and indol-3-acetate, but not AZM, blunted ex-vivo LPS-induced alveolar macrophage generation of CXCL1, TNF-α, IL-13 and IL-12p40. CONCLUSION: AZM treatment altered both lung microbiota and metabolome, affecting anti-inflammatory bacterial metabolites that may contribute to its therapeutic effects. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02557958.

Deficient retinoid-driven angiogenesis may contribute to failure of adult human lung regeneration in emphysema.

BACKGROUND: Molecular pathways that regulate alveolar development and adult repair represent potential therapeutic targets for emphysema. Signalling via retinoic acid (RA), derived from vitamin A, is required for mammalian alveologenesis, and exogenous RA can induce alveolar regeneration in rodents. Little is known about RA signalling in the human lung and its potential role in lung disease. OBJECTIVES: To examine regulation of human alveolar epithelial and endothelial repair by RA, and characterise RA signalling in human emphysema. METHODS: The role of RA signalling in alveolar epithelial repair was investigated with a scratch assay using an alveolar cell line (A549) and primary human alveolar type 2 (AT2) cells from resected lung, and the role in angiogenesis using a tube formation assay with human lung microvascular endothelial cells (HLMVEC). Localisation of RA synthetic (RALDH-1) and degrading (cytochrome P450 subfamily 26 A1 (CYP26A1)) enzymes in human lung was determined by immunofluorescence. Regulation of RA pathway components was investigated in emphysematous and control human lung tissue by quantitative real-time PCR and Western analysis. RESULTS: RA stimulated HLMVEC angiogenesis in vitro; this was partially reproduced with a RAR-α agonist. RA induced mRNA expression of vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA) and VEGFR2. RA did not modulate AT2 repair. CYP26A1 protein was identified in human lung microvasculature, whereas RALDH-1 partially co-localised with vimentin-positive fibroblasts. CYP26A1 mRNA and protein were increased in emphysema. CONCLUSIONS: RA regulates lung microvascular angiogenesis; the endothelium produces CYP26A1 which is increased in emphysema, possibly leading to reduced RA availability. These data highlight a role for RA in maintenance of the human pulmonary microvascular endothelium.

Tumour-associated neutrophils and loss of epithelial PTEN can promote corticosteroid-insensitive MMP-9 expression in the chronically inflamed lung microenvironment.

Matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) is increased in a number of pathological lung conditions, where the proteinase contributes to deleterious remodelling of the airways. While both lung cancer and COPD are associated with increased MMP-9 expression, the cellular and molecular drivers of MMP-9 remain unresolved. In this study, MMP-9 transcript measured within the tumour region from patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and coexisting COPD was found to be uniformly increased relative to adjacent tumour-free tissue. MMP-9 gene expression and immunohistochemistry identified tumour-associated neutrophils, but not macrophages, as a predominant source of this proteinase. In addition, PTEN gene expression was significantly reduced in tumour and there was evidence of epithelial MMP-9 expression. To explore whether PTEN can regulate epithelial MMP-9 expression, a small interfering (si)RNA knockdown strategy was used in Beas-2B bronchial epithelial cells. PTEN knockdown by siRNA selectively increased MMP-9 expression in response to lipopolysaccharide in a corticosteroid-insensitive manner. In summary, tumour-associated neutrophils represent an important source of MMP-9 in NSCLC, and loss of epithelial PTEN may further augment steroid-insensitive expression.

Biomechanical CT metrics are associated with patient outcomes in COPD.

BACKGROUND: Traditional metrics of lung disease such as those derived from spirometry and static single-volume CT images are used to explain respiratory morbidity in patients with COPD, but are insufficient. We hypothesised that the mean Jacobian determinant, a measure of local lung expansion and contraction with respiration, would contribute independently to clinically relevant functional outcomes. METHODS: We applied image registration techniques to paired inspiratory-expiratory CT scans and derived the Jacobian determinant of the deformation field between the two lung volumes to map local volume change with respiration. We analysed 490 participants with COPD with multivariable regression models to assess strengths of association between traditional CT metrics of disease and the Jacobian determinant with respiratory morbidity including dyspnoea (modified Medical Research Council), St Georges Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score, 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and the Body Mass Index, Airflow Obstruction, Dyspnoea and Exercise Capacity (BODE) index, as well as all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The Jacobian determinant was significantly associated with SGRQ (adjusted regression coefficient ß=-11.75,95% CI -21.6 to -1.7; p=0.020), and with 6MWD (ß=321.15, 95% CI 134.1 to 508.1; p<0.001), independent of age, sex, race, body mass index, FEV1, smoking pack-years, CT emphysema, CT gas trapping, airway wall thickness and CT scanner type. The mean Jacobian determinant was also independently associated with the BODE index (ß=-0.41, 95% CI -0.80 to -0.02; p=0.039) and mortality on follow-up (adjusted HR=4.26, 95% CI 0.93 to 19.23; p=0.064). CONCLUSIONS: Biomechanical metrics representing local lung expansion and contraction improve prediction of respiratory morbidity and mortality and offer additional prognostic information beyond traditional measures of lung function and static single-volume CT metrics. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00608764; Post-results.