Cause-specific mortality in COPD subpopulations: a cohort study of 339 647 people in England.

BACKGROUND: Identifying correlates of cause-specific mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may aid the targeting of therapies to reduce mortality. We determined factors associated with causes of death in a primary care COPD population. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum was linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and death certificate data. People with COPD alive between 1 January 2010 and 1 January 2020 were included. Patient characteristics were defined before the start of follow-up: (a) frequency and severity of exacerbations; (b) emphysema or chronic bronchitis; (c) Global Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) groups A-D; and (d) airflow limitation. We used Cox Proportional Hazards regression and competing risks to investigate the association between patient characteristics and risk of all-cause, COPD and cardiovascular (CV) mortality. RESULTS: 339 647 people with COPD were included of which 97 882 died during follow-up (25.7% COPD related and 23.3% CV related). Airflow limitation, GOLD group, exacerbation frequency and severity, and COPD phenotype were associated with all-cause mortality. Exacerbations, both increased frequency and severity, were associated with COPD-related mortality (≥2 exacerbations vs none adjusted HR: 1.64, 1.57-1.71; 1 severe vs none adjusted HR: 2.17, 2.04-2.31, respectively). Patients in GOLD groups B-D had a higher risk of COPD and CV mortality compared with GOLD group A (GOLD group D vs group A, adjusted HR for COPD mortality: 4.57, 4.23-4.93 and adjusted HR for CV mortality: 1.53, 1.41-1.65). Increasing airflow limitation was also associated with both COPD and CV mortality (GOLD 4 vs 1, adjusted HR: 12.63, 11.82-13.51 and adjusted HR: 1.75, 1.60-1.91, respectively). CONCLUSION: Poorer airflow limitation, worse functional status and exacerbations had substantial associations with risk of all-cause mortality. Differing results for CV and COPD-related mortality suggests interventions to prevent mortality may need to target particular characteristics or time points in the disease course.

Female reproductive histories and the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Female reproductive factors may influence the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) through the female hormonal environment, but studies on this topic are limited. This study aimed to assess whether age at menarche, number of children, infertility, miscarriage, stillbirth and age at natural menopause were associated with the risk of COPD. METHODS: Women from three cohorts with data on reproductive factors, COPD and covariates were included. Cause specific Cox regression models were adjusted for birth year, race, educational level, body mass index and pack years of smoking, stratified by asthma, and incorporating interaction between birth year and time. Between cohort differences and within cohort correlations were taken into account. RESULTS: Overall, 2 83 070 women were included and 10 737 (3.8%) developed COPD after a median follow-up of 11 (IQR 10-12) years. Analyses revealed a U shaped association between age at menarche and COPD (≤11 vs 13: HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.23; ≥16 vs 13: HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.27). Women with three or more children (3 vs 2: HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.17; ≥4 vs 2: HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.40), multiple miscarriages (2 vs 0: HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.32; ≥3 vs 0: HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.43) or stillbirth (1 vs 0: HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.53; ≥2 vs 0: HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.10) were at a higher risk of COPD. Among postmenopausal women, earlier age at natural menopause was associated with an increased risk of COPD (<40 vs 50-51: HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.63 to 1.75; 40-44 vs 50-51: HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple female reproductive factors, including age at menarche, number of children, miscarriage, stillbirth, and age at natural menopause were associated with the risk of COPD.

Physical activity and body mass related to catch-up lung function growth in childhood: a population-based accelerated cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The existence of catch-up lung function growth and its predictors is uncertain. We aimed to identify lung function trajectories and their predictors in a population-based birth cohort. METHODS: We applied group-based trajectory modelling to z-scores of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (zFEV1) and z-scores of forced vital capacity (zFVC) from 1151 children assessed at around 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 14 and 18 years. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to test whether potential prenatal and postnatal predictors were associated with lung function trajectories. RESULTS: We identified four lung function trajectories: a low (19% and 19% of the sample for zFEV1 and zFVC, respectively), normal (62% and 63%), and high trajectory (16% and 13%) running in parallel, and a catch-up trajectory (2% and 5%) with catch-up occurring between 4 and 10 years. Fewer child allergic diseases and higher body mass index z-score (zBMI) at 4 years were associated with the high and normal compared with the low trajectories, both for zFEV1 and zFVC. Increased children's physical activity during early childhood and higher zBMI at 4 years were associated with the catch-up compared with the low zFEV1 trajectory (relative risk ratios: 1.59 per physical activity category (1.03-2.46) and 1.47 per zBMI (0.97-2.23), respectively). No predictors were identified for zFVC catch-up growth. CONCLUSION: We found three parallel-running and one catch-up zFEV1 and zFVC trajectories, and identified physical activity and body mass at 4 years as predictors of zFEV1 but not zFVC catch-up growth.

Spirometric patterns in young and middle-aged adults: a 20-year European study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the natural history of abnormal spirometric patterns at different stages of life is critical to identify and optimise preventive strategies. We aimed to describe characteristics and risk factors of restrictive and obstructive spirometric patterns occurring before 40 years (young onset) and between 40 and 61 years (mid-adult onset). METHODS: We used data from the population-based cohort of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS). Prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were assessed longitudinally at baseline (ECRHS1, 1993-1994) and again 20 years later (ECRHS3, 2010-2013). Spirometry patterns were defined as: restrictive if FEV1/FVC≥LLN and FVC<10th percentile, obstructive if FEV1/FVC

Effects of testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin on lung function in males and females: a multivariable Mendelian Randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest that total testosterone (TT) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) may have beneficial effects on lung function, but these findings might be spurious due to confounding and reverse causation. We addressed these limitations by using multivariable Mendelian randomisation (MVMR) to investigate the independent causal effects of TT and SHBG on lung function. METHODS: We first identified genetic instruments by performing genome-wide association analyses of TT and SHBG in the large UK Biobank, separately in males and females. We then assessed the independent effects of TT and SHBG on forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC using one-sample MVMR. We addressed pleiotropy, which could bias MVMR, using several methods that account for it. We performed subgroup MVMR analyses by obesity, physical activity and menopausal status, and assessed associations between TT and SHBG with lung function decline. Finally, we compared the MVMR results with those of observational analyses in the UK Biobank. FINDINGS: In the MVMR analyses, there was evidence of pleiotropy, but results were consistent when accounting for it. We found a strong beneficial effect of TT on FVC and FEV1 in both males and females, but a moderate detrimental effect of SHBG on FEV1 and FEV1/FVC in males only. Subgroup analyses suggested stronger effects of TT among obese and older males. The observational analyses, in line with previous studies, agreed with MRMV for TT, but not for SHBG. INTERPRETATION: These findings suggest that testosterone improves lung function in males and females, while SHBG has an opposite independent effect in males.

Quantifying sustained health system benefits of primary care-based integrated disease management for COPD: a 6-year interrupted time series study.

BACKGROUND: Severe exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a trajectory-changing life event for patients and a major contributor to health system costs. This study evaluates the real-world impact of a primary care, integrated disease management (IDM) programme on acute health service utilisation (HSU) in the Canadian health system. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis using retrospective health administrative data, comparing monthly HSU event rates 3 years prior to and 3 years following the implementation of COPD IDM. Primary outcomes were COPD-related hospitalisation and emergency department (ED) visits. Secondary outcomes included hospital bed days and all-cause HSU. RESULTS: There were 2451 participants. COPD-related and all-cause HSU rates increased in the 3 years prior to IDM implementation. With implementation, there was an immediate decrease (month 1) in COPD-related hospitalisation and ED visit rates of -4.6 (95% CI: -7.76 to -1.39) and -6.2 (95% CI: -11.88, -0.48) per 1000 participants per month, respectively, compared with the counterfactual control group. After 12 months, COPD-related hospitalisation rates decreased: -9.1 events per 1000 participants per month (95% CI: -12.72, -5.44) and ED visits -19.0 (95% CI: -25.50, -12.46). This difference nearly doubled by 36 months. All-cause HSU also demonstrated rate reductions at 12 months, hospitalisation was -10.2 events per 1000 participants per month (95% CI: -15.79, -4.44) and ED visits were -30.4 (95% CI: -41.95, -18.78). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of COPD IDM in a primary care setting was associated with a changed trajectory of COPD-related and all-cause HSU from an increasing year-on-year trend to sustained long-term reductions. This highlights a substantial real-world opportunity that may improve health system performance and patient outcomes.

Cluster randomised controlled trial of specialist-led integrated COPD care (INTEGR COPD).

OBJECTIVE: Studies in hospital settings demonstrate that there is greater guideline adherence when care is delivered by a respiratory specialist, however, this has not been explored in primary care. The aim of this study is to determine the impact integrating respiratory specialists into primary care has on the delivery of guideline adherent chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) care. METHODS: 18 general practitioner (GP) practices were randomised to provide either usual or specialist-led COPD care. Patients at participating practices were included if they had an existing diagnosis of COPD. Outcomes were measured at the individual patient level. The primary outcome was guideline adherence, assessed as achieving four or more items of the COPD care bundle. Secondary outcome measures included quality of life, number of exacerbations, number of COPD-related hospitalisations and respiratory outpatient attendances. RESULTS: 586 patients from 10 practices randomised to the intervention and 656 patients from 8 practices randomised to the control arm of the study were included. The integration of respiratory specialists into GP practices led to a statistically significant (p<0.001) improvement in the provision of guideline adherent care when compared with usual care in this cohort (92.7% vs 70.1%) (OR 4.14, 95% CI 2.14 to 8.03). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to demonstrate that guideline adherence is improved through the integration of respiratory specialists into GP practices to deliver annual COPD reviews. To facilitate changes in current healthcare practice and policy, the findings of this paper need to be viewed in combination with qualitative research exploring the acceptability of specialist integration. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03482700.

Distinct trajectories of lung function from childhood to mid-adulthood.

RATIONALE: Life course trajectories of lung function development and decline influence the risk for lung disease but are poorly documented. OBJECTIVE: To document lung function trajectories from childhood to mid-adult life. METHODS: We modelled forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC at ages 9, 11, 13, 15, 18, 21, 26, 32, 38 and 45 years from a population-based cohort using latent profile analysis to identify distinct subgroups of participants with similar lung function trajectories. Regression analyses were used to assess associations between the trajectories, early life factors and postbronchodilator airflow obstruction at age 45. RESULTS: Among 865 participants with ≥6 measures of lung function, we identified 10 distinct FEV1 trajectories. Most were approximately parallel except for a childhood airway hyper-responsiveness-related persistently low trajectory (3% of study population); two accelerated-decline trajectories, one of which (8%) was associated with smoking and higher adult body mass index (BMI) and a catch-up trajectory (8%). Findings for FEV1/FVC trajectories were similar. Nine trajectories were identified for FVC: most were also approximately parallel except for a higher BMI-related accelerated-decline trajectory. The three FEV1 trajectories leading to the lowest FEV1 values comprised 19% of the cohort but contributed 55% of airflow obstruction at age 45. CONCLUSIONS: Lung function trajectories to mid-adult life are largely established before adolescence, with a few exceptions: a childhood airway hyper-responsiveness-related persistently low trajectory, which starts low and gets worse with age, and accelerated adult decline trajectories associated with smoking and obesity. Adverse trajectories are associated with a high risk of airflow obstruction in mid-adult life.

Lower airway microbiota in COPD and healthy controls.

BACKGROUND: The lower airway microbiota in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are likely altered compared with the microbiota in healthy individuals. Information on how the microbiota is affected by smoking, use of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) and COPD severity is still scarce. METHODS: In the MicroCOPD Study, participant characteristics were obtained through standardised questionnaires and clinical measurements at a single centre from 2012 to 2015. Protected bronchoalveolar lavage samples from 97 patients with COPD and 97 controls were paired-end sequenced with the Illumina MiSeq System. Data were analysed in QIIME 2 and R. RESULTS: Alpha-diversity was lower in patients with COPD than controls (Pielou evenness: COPD=0.76, control=0.80, p=0.004; Shannon entropy: COPD=3.98, control=4.34, p=0.01). Beta-diversity differed with smoking only in the COPD cohort (weighted UniFrac: permutational analysis of variance R2=0.04, p=0.03). Nine genera were differentially abundant between COPD and controls. Genera enriched in COPD belonged to the Firmicutes phylum. Pack years were linked to differential abundance of taxa in controls only (ANCOM-BC (Analysis of Compositions of Microbiomes with Bias Correction) log-fold difference/q-values: Haemophilus -0.05/0.048; Lachnoanaerobaculum -0.04/0.03). Oribacterium was absent in smoking patients with COPD compared with non-smoking patients (ANCOM-BC log-fold difference/q-values: -1.46/0.03). We found no associations between the microbiota and COPD severity or ICS. CONCLUSION: The lower airway microbiota is equal in richness in patients with COPD to controls, but less even. Genera from the Firmicutes phylum thrive particularly in COPD airways. Smoking has different effects on diversity and taxonomic abundance in patients with COPD compared with controls. COPD severity and ICS use were not linked to the lower airway microbiota.

Early menopause and hormone therapy as determinants for lung health outcomes: a secondary analysis using the PLCO trial.

RATIONALE: Early natural menopause (early-M; <45 years of age) increases the risk of lung morbidities and mortalities in smokers. However, it is largely unknown whether early-M due to surgery demonstrates similar effects and whether menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is protective against lung diseases. OBJECTIVES: To assess the associations of early-M and MHT with lung morbidities and mortalities using the prospective Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) trial. METHODS: We estimated the risk among 69 706 postmenopausal women in the PLCO trial, stratified by menopausal types and smoking status. RESULTS: Early-M was associated with an increased risk of most lung disease and mortality outcomes in ever smokers with the highest risk seen for respiratory mortality (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.92) in those with bilateral oophorectomy (BO). Early-M was positively associated with chronic bronchitis, and all-cause, non-cancer and respiratory mortality in never smokers with natural menopause or BO, with the highest risk seen for BO- respiratory mortality (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.16 to 3.12). Ever MHT was associated with reduced all-cause, non-cancer and cardiovascular mortality across menopause types regardless of smoking status and was additionally associated with reduced risk of non-ovarian cancer, lung cancer (LC) and respiratory mortality in ever smokers. Among smokers, ever MHT use was associated with a reduction in HR for all-cause, non-cancer and cardiovascular mortality in a duration-dependent manner. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers with early-M should be targeted for smoking cessation and LC screening regardless of menopause types. MHT users had a lower likelihood of dying from LC and respiratory diseases in ever smokers.

Type-2 inflammation and lung function decline in chronic airway disease in the general population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear if type-2 inflammation is associated with accelerated lung function decline in individuals with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We tested the hypothesis that type-2 inflammation indicated by elevated blood eosinophils (BE) and fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) is associated with accelerated lung function decline in the general population. METHODS: We included adults from the Copenhagen General Population Study with measurements of BE (N=15 605) and FeNO (N=2583) from a follow-up examination and assessed forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) decline in the preceding 10 years. Based on pre- and post-bronchodilator lung function, smoking history and asthma at follow-up examination, participants were assigned as not having airway disease, asthma with full reversibility (AR), asthma with persistent obstruction (APO), COPD, and not classifiable airflow limitation (NAL). RESULTS: FEV1 decline in mL/year increased with 1.0 (95% CI 0.6 to 1.4, p<0.0001) per 100 cells/µL higher BE and with 3.2 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.5, p<0.0001) per 10 ppb higher FeNO. Adjusted FEV1 decline in mL/year was 18 (95% CI 17 to 20) in those with BE<300 cells/µL and FeNO<20 ppb, 22 (19-25) in BE≥300 cells/µL or FeNO≥20 ppb, and 27 (21-33) in those with BE≥300 cells/µL and FeNO≥20 ppb (p for trend<0.0001). Corresponding FEV1 declines were 24 (19-29), 33 (25-40) and 44 (31-56) in AR (0.002), 26 (14-37), 36 (12-60) and 56 (24-89) in APO (0.07), 32 (27-36), 31 (24-38) and 44 (24-65) in COPD (0.46), and 27 (21-33), 35 (26-45), and 37 (25-49) in NAL (0.10), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Type-2 inflammation indicated by elevated BE and FeNO is associated with accelerated FEV1 decline in individuals with chronic airway disease in the general population, and this association was most pronounced in an asthma-like phenotype.

Frequency and severity of respiratory infections prior to COPD diagnosis and risk of subsequent postdiagnosis COPD exacerbations and mortality: EXACOS-UK health care data study.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about how lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) before chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with future exacerbations and mortality. We investigated this association in patients with COPD in England. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data were used. Start of follow-up was patient's first ever COPD diagnosis date and a 1-year baseline period prior to start of follow-up was used to find mild LRTIs (general practice (GP) events/no antibiotics), moderate LRTIs (GP events+antibiotics) and severe LRTIs (hospitalised). Patients were categorised as having: none, 1 mild only, 2+ mild only, 1 moderate, 2+ moderate and 1+ severe. Negative binomial regression modelled the association between baseline LRTIs and subsequent COPD exacerbations and Cox proportional hazard regression was used to investigate mortality. RESULTS: In 215 234 patients with COPD, increasing frequency and severity of mild and moderate LRTIs were associated with increased rates of subsequent exacerbations compared with no recorded LRTIs (1 mild adjusted IRR 1.16, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.18, 2+ mild IRR 1.51, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.55, 1 moderate IRR 1.81, 95% CI 1.78 to 1.85, 2+ moderate IRR 2.55, 95% CI 2.48 to 2.63). Patients with 1+ severe LRTI (vs no baseline LRTIs) also showed an increased rate of future exacerbations (adjusted IRR 1.75, 95% CI, 1.70 to 1.80). This pattern of association was similar for risk of all-cause and COPD-related mortality; however, patients with 1+ severe LRTIs had the highest risk of all-cause and COPD mortality. CONCLUSION: Increasing frequency and severity of LRTIs prior to COPD diagnosis were associated with increasing rates of subsequent exacerbations, and increasing risk of all-cause and COPD-related mortality.

Diagnosis and treatment outcomes from prebronchodilator spirometry performed alongside lung cancer screening in a Lung Health Check programme.

INTRODUCTION: Incorporating spirometry into low-dose CT (LDCT) screening for lung cancer may help identify people with undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), although the downstream impacts are not well described. METHODS: Participants attending a Lung Health Check (LHC) as part of the Yorkshire Lung Screening Trial were offered spirometry alongside LDCT screening. Results were communicated to the general practitioner (GP), and those with unexplained symptomatic airflow obstruction (AO) fulfilling agreed criteria were referred to the Leeds Community Respiratory Team (CRT) for assessment and treatment. Primary care records were reviewed to determine changes to diagnostic coding and pharmacotherapy. RESULTS: Of 2391 LHC participants undergoing prebronchodilator spirometry, 201 (8.4%) fulfilled the CRT referral criteria of which 151 were invited for further assessment. Ninety seven participants were subsequently reviewed by the CRT, 46 declined assessment and 8 had already been seen by their GP at the time of CRT contact. Overall 70 participants had postbronchodilator spirometry checked, of whom 20 (29%) did not have AO. Considering the whole cohort referred to the CRT (but excluding those without AO postbronchodilation), 59 had a new GP COPD code, 56 commenced new pharmacotherapy and 5 were underwent pulmonary rehabilitation (comprising 2.5%, 2.3% and 0.2% of the 2391 participants undergoing LHC spirometry). CONCLUSIONS: Delivering spirometry alongside lung cancer screening may facilitate earlier diagnosis of COPD. However, this study highlights the importance of confirming AO by postbronchodilator spirometry prior to diagnosing and treating patients with COPD and illustrates some downstream challenges in acting on spirometry collected during an LHC.

Chronic airflow obstruction attributable to poverty in the multinational Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study.

Poverty is strongly associated with all-cause and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality. Less is known about the contribution of poverty to spirometrically defined chronic airflow obstruction (CAO)-a key characteristic of COPD. Using cross-sectional data from an asset-based questionnaire to define poverty in 21 sites of the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study, we estimated the risk of CAO attributable to poverty. Up to 6% of the population over 40 years had CAO attributable to poverty. Understanding the relationship between poverty and CAO might suggest ways to improve lung health, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

Combined effect of ozone and household air pollution on COPD in people aged less than 50 years old.

OBJECTIVES: Air pollution has been suggested as an important risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, evidence of interactive effects on COPD between different factors was sparse, especially for young adults. We aimed to assess the combined effects of ambient ozone (O3) and household air pollution on COPD in young individuals. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study of residents aged 15-50 years in the low-income and middle-income regions of western China. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine the associations between long-term ozone exposure and COPD in young individuals. RESULTS: A total of 6537 young cases were identified among the participants, with a COPD prevalence rate of 7.8 (95% CI 7.2% to 8.5%), and most young COPD individuals were asymptomatic. Exposure to household air pollution was associated with COPD in young patients after adjustment for other confounding factors (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.41 to 2.37). We also found positive associations of COPD with O3 per IQR increase of 20 ppb (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.32). The individual effects of household air pollution and O3 were 1.68 (95% CI 1.18 to 2.46) and 1.55 (95% CI 0.99 to 2.43), respectively, while their joint effect was 3.28 (95% CI 2.35 to 4.69) with the relative excess risk due to interaction of 1.05 (95% CI 0.33 to 1.78). CONCLUSIONS: This study concludes that exposure to ambient O3 and household air pollution might be important risk factors for COPD among young adults, and simultaneous exposure to high levels of the two pollutants may intensify their individual effects.

QRISK3 underestimates the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The extent to which the excess CVD risk is captured by risk factors in QRISK, a widely used CVD risk scoring tool, is not well studied. METHODS: We created an incidence cohort of diagnosed COPD patients from the United Kingdom (UK) Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database (January 1998-July 2018). The outcome was a composite of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. Sex-specific age-standardised incidence ratios (SIR) were compared with values for the UK primary-care population. The observed 10-year CVD risk was derived using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and was compared with predicted 10-year risk from the QRISK3 tool. RESULTS: 13 208 patients (mean age 64.9 years, 45% women) were included. CVD incidence was 3.53 events per 100 person-years. The SIR of CVD was 1.71 (95% CI 1.61 to 1.75) in women and 1.62 (95%CI 1.54-1.64) in men. SIR was particularly high among patients younger than 65 years (women=2.13 (95% CI 1.94 to 2.19); men=1.86 (95% CI 1.74 to 1.90)). On average, the observed 10-year risk was 52% higher than QRISK predicted score (33.5% vs 22.1%). The difference was higher in patients younger than 65 years (observed risk 82% higher than predicted). CONCLUSION: People living with COPD are at a significantly heightened risk of CVD over and beyond their predicted risk. This is particularly the case for younger people whose 10-year CVD risk can be >80% higher than predicted. Risk scoring tools must be validated and revised to provide accurate CVD predictions in patients with COPD.

Mortality in non-exacerbating COPD: a longitudinal analysis of UK primary care data.

INTRODUCTION: Non-exacerbating patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are a less studied phenotype. We investigated clinical characteristics, mortality rates and causes of death among non-exacerbating compared with exacerbating patients with COPD. METHODS: We used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018. Ever smokers with a COPD diagnosis with minimum 3 years of baseline information were included. We compared overall using Cox regression and cause-specific mortality rates using competing risk analysis, adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, smoking status, body mass index, GOLD stage and comorbidities. Causes of death were identified using International Classification of Diseases-10 codes. RESULTS: Among 67 516 patients, 17.3% did not exacerbate during the 3-year baseline period. Mean follow-up was 4 years. Non-exacerbators were more likely to be male (63.3% vs 52.4%, p<0.001) and less often had a history of asthma (33.9% vs 43.6%, p<0.001) or FEV1<50% predicted (23.7 vs 31.8%) compared with exacerbators. Adjusted HR for overall mortality in non-exacerbators compared with exacerbators was 0.62 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.70) in the first year of follow-up and 0.87 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.91) thereafter. Non-exacerbating patients with COPD died less of respiratory causes than exacerbators (29.2% vs 40.3%) and more of malignancies (29.4% vs 23.4%) and cardiovascular diseases (26.2% vs 22.9%). HRs for malignant and circulatory causes of death were increased after the first year of follow-up. DISCUSSION: In this primary care cohort, non-exacerbators showed distinct clinical characteristics and lower mortality rates. Non-exacerbators were equally likely to die of respiratory, malignant or cardiovascular diseases.

Airflow limitation and mortality during cancer screening in the National Lung Screening Trial: why quantifying airflow limitation matters.

IMPORTANCE: Current eligibility criteria for lung cancer (LC) screening are derived from randomised controlled trials and primarily based on age and smoking history. However, the individual benefits of screening are highly variable and potentially attenuated by co-morbidities such as advanced airflow limitation (AL). OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between the presence and severity of AL and screening outcomes. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of 18 463 high-risk smokers, a substudy from the National Lung Screening Trial, who underwent pre-bronchodilator spirometry at baseline and median follow-up of 6.1 years. We used descriptive statistics and a competing risk proportional hazards model to examine differences in screening outcomes by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease severity group. RESULTS: The risk of developing LC increased with worsening AL (effect size=0.34, p<0.0001), as did the risk of dying of LC (effect size=0.35, p<0.0001). While those with severe AL (Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease, GOLD grade 3-4) had the highest risk of LC and the highest LC mortality, they also had fewer adenocarcinomas (effect size=-0.20, p=0.008) and a lower surgery rate (effect size=-0.16, p=0.014) despite comparable staging, and greater non-LC mortality relative to LC mortality (effect size=0.30, p<0.0001). In participants with no AL, screening with CT was associated with a significant reduction in LC deaths relative to chest X-ray (30.3%, 95% CI 4.5% to 49.2%, p<0.05). The clinically relevant but attenuated reduction in those with AL (18.5%, 95% CI -8.4% to 38.7%, p>0.05) could be attributed to GOLD 3-4, where no appreciable mortality reduction was observed. CONCLUSION: Despite a greater risk of LC, severe AL was not associated with any apparent reduction in LC mortality following screening.

Association between antidepressants with pneumonia and exacerbation in patients with COPD: a self-controlled case series (SCCS).

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether antidepressant prescriptions are associated with an increased risk of pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. METHODS: A self-controlled case series was performed to investigate the rates of pneumonia and COPD exacerbation during periods of being exposed to antidepressants compared with non-exposed periods. Patients with COPD with pneumonia or COPD exacerbation and at least one prescription of antidepressant were ascertained from The Health Improvement Network in the UK. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% CI were calculated for both outcomes. RESULTS: Of 31 253 patients with COPD with at least one antidepressant prescription, 1969 patients had pneumonia and 18 483 had a COPD exacerbation. The 90-day risk period following antidepressant prescription was associated with a 79% increased risk of pneumonia (age-adjusted IRR 1.79, 95% CI 1.54 to 2.07). These associations then disappeared once antidepressants were discontinued. There was a 16% (age-adjusted IRR 1.16, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.20) increased risk of COPD exacerbation within the 90 days following antidepressant prescription. This risk persisted and slightly increased in the remainder period ((age-adjusted IRR 1.38, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.41), but diminished after patients discounted the treatment. CONCLUSION: Antidepressants were associated with an increased risk of both pneumonia and exacerbation in patients with COPD, with the risks diminished on stopping the treatment. These findings suggest a close monitoring of antidepressant prescription side effects and consideration of non-pharmacological interventions.

Air pollution associated with incidence and progression trajectory of chronic lung diseases: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: No prior study has examined the effects of air pollution on the progression from healthy to chronic lung disease, subsequent chronic lung multimorbidity and further to death. METHODS: We used data from the UK Biobank of 265 506 adults free of chronic lung disease at recruitment. Chronic lung multimorbidity was defined as the coexistence of at least two chronic lung diseases, including asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer. The concentrations of air pollutants were estimated using land-use regression models. Multistate models were applied to assess the effect of air pollution on the progression of chronic lung multimorbidity. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.9 years, 13 863 participants developed at least one chronic lung disease, 1055 developed chronic lung multimorbidity and 12 772 died. We observed differential associations of air pollution with different trajectories of chronic lung multimorbidity. Fine particulate matter showed the strongest association with all five transitions, with HRs (95% CI) per 5 µg/m3 increase of 1.31 (1.22 to 1.42) and 1.27 (1.01 to 1.57) for transitions from healthy to incident chronic lung disease and from incident chronic lung disease to chronic lung multimorbidity, and 1.32 (1.21 to 1.45), 1.24 (1.01 to 1.53) and 1.91 (1.14 to 3.20) for mortality risk from healthy, incident chronic lung disease and chronic lung multimorbidity, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our study provides the first evidence that ambient air pollution could affect the progression from free of chronic lung disease to incident chronic lung disease, chronic lung multimorbidity and death.