Pest management in future climates: Warming reduces physical weed management effectiveness.

Climate change alters many aspects of weed performance and may also alter the effectiveness of management practices to control pests. Despite this concern, entire categories of widely used management practices, such as physical control, remain understudied in this context. We conducted a field experiment growing the invasive pest musk thistle (Carduus nutans) at ambient and experimentally elevated temperatures. We tested mowing management strategies that varied in the timing of a single mowing event relative to thistles' stem elongation phenology and compared these with an unmowed control. Results from this experiment informed demographic models to project population growth rates for different warming/mowing scenarios. Compared to plants grown under ambient conditions, warmed thistles were more likely to survive the same mowing treatment, flowered earlier in the season, grew to taller heights, and produced more flowering capitula. Proportional reductions in plant height and capitulum production caused by mowing were smaller under warming. Warming did not change the relative ranking of mowing treatments; mowing late in the growing season (2 weeks after individuals first reached a height of 40 cm) was most effective at ambient temperatures and under warming. Warming caused significant increases in projected local population growth rate for all mowing treatments. For invasive musk thistle, warmed individuals outperformed individuals grown at ambient temperatures across all the mowing treatments we considered. Our results suggest that to achieve outcomes comparable to those attainable at today's temperatures, farmers will need to apply supplemental management, possibly including additional mowing effort or alternative practices such as chemical control. We recommend that scientists test management practices under experimental warming, where possible, and that managers monitor ongoing management to identify changes in effectiveness. Information about changes in managed weeds' mortality, fecundity, and phenology can then be used to make informed decisions in future climates.

Phenolic Composition of Inflorescences of Carduus nutans L.

Carduus nutans L. (Compositae) has been extensively used for medicinal purposes. As other representatives of the genus it is implemented in the treatment of liver disorders and used as diuretic and digestive agent. Previous studies have determined the predominant classes of secondary metabolites in Carduus species. Among the major representatives of their extracts flavonoids, phenolic acids, coumarins, sterols and terpenes were identified. The antiradical capacity of three extracts assessed in the DPPH test revealed the highest radical scavenging properties of methanol extract (the EC50 618±10.03 µg/mL) and based on these results it was selected for phenolic content determination. (TPC=61.49 mg/g). To understand better the induced pharmacological effects of the plant the aim of the study was to determine the composition of the methanol extract from the inflorescences of C. nutans and to study their phenolic composition. In order to determine the composition in a more efficient way, the crude extract was fractionated and subjected to hydrolyses. As a result more than twenty phenolic acids and flavonoids were identified in the extract and fractions by HPLC-DAD and/or HPLC-ESI-TOF-MS. The total extract was later subjected to fractionation by centrifugal partition chromatography using the Arizona system composed of hexane/ethyl acetate/methanol/water (0.7 : 4 : 0.8 : 4 v/v/v/v) to produce fractions enriched in flavonoids that are of high pharmacological significance.

Elevated temperatures shift flower head height distributions and seed dispersal patterns in two invasive thistle species.

Climate change may significantly alter how organisms disperse, with implications for population spread and species management. Wind-dispersed plants have emerged as a useful study system for investigating how climate change affects dispersal, although studies modeling wind dispersal often assume propagules are released from a single point on an individual. This simplifying assumption, while useful, may misestimate dispersal. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on dispersal distances and spread rates, examining how these quantities shift when accounting for all points of seed release on an individual. Using the wind-dispersed invasive thistles Carduus nutans and Carduus acanthoides, we quantify temperature-driven shifts in the distribution of flower head heights using a passive warming field experiment, and estimate how these shifts affect dispersal using the Wald analytical long-distance (WALD) model; for C. nutans, we use existing demographic data to simulate how these shifts affect population spread rates. We also compare dispersal distances for both warmed and ambient temperature plants, considering the entire distribution of flower head heights versus the common assumption of point-source seed release at the maximum height. For experimentally grown individuals, an ~0.6°C higher growing temperature increased mean and maximum flower head height by 14.1 cm (15.0%) and 14.0 cm (13.2%), respectively, in C. nutans and by 21.2 cm (26.6%) and 31.8 cm (36.7%), respectively, in C. acanthoides. Seeds from warmed individuals were more likely to exceed a given dispersal distance than those from their unwarmed counterparts; warmed C. nutans and C. acanthoides seeds were on average 1.36 and 1.71 times as likely, respectively, to travel 10 m or more in dispersal simulations, with this disparity increasing at longer dispersal distances. For C. nutans, increased growing temperatures boosted simulated rates of population spread by 42.2%, while assuming dispersal from a maximum height point source rather than the true distribution of flower head heights increased simulated spread by up to 28.5%. Our results not only demonstrate faster population spread under increased temperatures, but also have substantial implications for modeling such spread, as the common simplifying assumption of dispersal from a single maximum height source may substantially overestimate spread rates.

Climate warming increases insect-driven seed removal of two elaiosome-bearing invasive thistle species.

Ants and other insects are often a source of localized secondary dispersal for wind-dispersed plants and thus play an important ecological role in their spatial dynamics, but there is limited information on how climate change will affect such dispersal processes. Here, we use field experiments to investigate how climate warming affects seed removal, as this initiation of movement represents the first step in insect-driven secondary dispersal. Our results indicate that for the invasive thistles Carduus nutans and Carduus acanthoides, increased growing temperature influences seed attractiveness to insect dispersers, with seeds from maternal plants grown at temperatures 0.6°C above ambient removed by insect dispersers at higher rates than their unwarmed counterparts. We also observe that seed elaiosomes in these two species play an important role in dispersal, as seeds without elaiosomes were significantly less likely to be removed over the same period. Significant interactions between elaiosome presence/absence and warming treatment were also observed, though only for C. acanthoides, with the boost in seed removal from warming dampened when the elaiosome was present compared to when it was absent. These findings provide evidence that climate warming may alter aspects of dispersal such as seed removal by secondary dispersers, with potential ramifications for dispersal in future climates since seed-bearing plants around the world may be subject to increased growing temperatures, and many of these plant species bear elaiosomes and experience seed dispersal by insects.

Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle.

Numerous studies have documented changes in the seasonal timing of organisms' growth and reproduction in response to climate warming. These changes correlate with documented changes in species' abundance, but mechanisms linking these trends remain elusive. We investigated the joint demographic effects of advanced reproductive phenology and warming on a globally invasive plant (Carduus nutans) in a field experiment, documenting a substantial shift toward completion of the life cycle at younger ages. Demographic modeling projected 71% of warmed individuals flower as annuals, compared to 61% under current conditions. As this species only reproduces once, this represents a major acceleration of the life cycle. We project a 15% increase in this invader's population growth rate. We show that rising temperatures accelerate this invasive species' population growth by increasing the average size of reproducing individuals; increasing the proportion of individuals that survive to reproduce; and increasing the fraction that reproduce as annuals. Major increases in population growth in this, and potentially many other, invasive species will threaten food security and require careful planning to avoid significant environmental and economic impacts.

Weighing the unknowns: Value of Information for biological and operational uncertainty in invasion management.

The management of biological invasions is a worldwide conservation priority. Unfortunately, decision-making on optimal invasion management can be impeded by lack of information about the biological processes that determine invader success (i.e. biological uncertainty) or by uncertainty about the effectiveness of candidate interventions (i.e. operational uncertainty). Concurrent assessment of both sources of uncertainty within the same framework can help to optimize control decisions.Here, we present a Value of Information (VoI) framework to simultaneously analyse the effects of biological and operational uncertainties on management outcomes. We demonstrate this approach with a case study: minimizing the long-term population growth of musk thistle Carduus nutans, a widespread invasive plant, using several insects as biological control agents, including Trichosirocalus horridus, Rhinocyllus conicus and Urophora solstitialis.The ranking of biocontrol agents was sensitive to differences in the target weed's demography and also to differences in the effectiveness of the different biocontrol agents. This finding suggests that accounting for both biological and operational uncertainties is valuable when making management recommendations for invasion control. Furthermore, our VoI analyses show that reduction of all uncertainties across all combinations of demographic model and biocontrol effectiveness explored in the current study would lead, on average, to a 15.6% reduction in musk thistle population growth rate. The specific growth reduction that would be observed in any instance would depend on how the uncertainties actually resolve. Resolving biological uncertainty (across demographic model combinations) or operational uncertainty (across biocontrol effectiveness combinations) alone would reduce expected population growth rate by 8.5% and 10.5% respectively.Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates that intervention rank is determined both by biological processes in the targeted invasive populations and by intervention effectiveness. Ignoring either biological uncertainty or operational uncertainty may result in a suboptimal recommendation. Therefore, it is important to simultaneously acknowledge both sources of uncertainty during the decision-making process in invasion management. The framework presented here can accommodate diverse data sources and modelling approaches, and has wide applicability to guide invasive species management and conservation efforts.

Warming Increases Pollen Lipid Concentration in an Invasive Thistle, with Minor Effects on the Associated Floral-Visitor Community.

Climate warming is likely to change the ways in which plants interact with their insect mutualists, for example through changes in phytochemistry. In particular, this may have implications for the ways in which we manage noxious weeds, which may spread more quickly if they experience stronger mutualistic interactions. We grew the invasive nodding thistle, Carduus nutans, in two experimental treatments in the field: either passively warmed with open top chambers or at ambient temperatures. We collected pollen from thistles in each treatment and analysed the total protein, lipid, and carbohydrate content. We observed no difference in the pollen protein or carbohydrate content, but the total lipid content of the pollen was significantly higher in warmed plants. We conducted a total of 12.75 h of observations of putatively mutualistic, flower-visiting insects. In addition, we spent 4.17 h collecting bees that visited thistle inflorescences in the treatments, allowing us to identify them to species. We found a significant increase in the abundance of flower-visiting insects in the observations, but not bee abundance in collections. In addition, there was no treatment effect on the number of flower-visiting morphotypes in the observations, or bee species richness in the collections. However, a nonparametric test did identify a significant effect of warming on the composition of flower-visiting morphotypes in observations and bee species in collections. Overall, the warming treatment significantly increased lipid content of the pollen, but had relatively weak effects on insect visitation patterns. However, these effects may be amplified at larger spatial and temporal scales or higher temperatures.

Maternal warming affects early life stages of an invasive thistle.

Maternal environment can influence plant offspring performance. Understanding maternal environmental effects will help to bridge a key gap in the knowledge of plant life cycles, and provide important insights for species' responses under climate change. Here we show that maternal warming significantly affected the early life stages of an invasive thistle, Carduus nutans. Seeds produced by plants grown in warmed conditions had higher germination percentages and shorter mean germination times than those produced by plants under ambient conditions; this difference was most evident at suboptimal germination temperatures. Subsequent seedling emergence was also faster with maternal warming, with no cost to seedling emergence percentage and seedling growth. Our results suggest that maternal warming may accelerate the life cycle of this species via enhanced early life-history stages. These maternal effects on offspring performance, together with the positive responses of the maternal generation, may exacerbate invasions of this species under climate change.