A controlled effects approach to assessing immune correlates of protection.

An immune correlate of risk (CoR) is an immunologic biomarker in vaccine recipients associated with an infectious disease clinical endpoint. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) is a CoR that can be used to reliably predict vaccine efficacy (VE) against the clinical endpoint and hence is accepted as a surrogate endpoint that can be used for accelerated approval or guide use of vaccines. In randomized, placebo-controlled trials, CoR analysis is limited by not assessing a causal vaccine effect. To address this limitation, we construct the controlled risk curve of a biomarker, which provides the causal risk of an endpoint if all participants are assigned vaccine and the biomarker is set to different levels. Furthermore, we propose a causal CoP analysis based on controlled effects, where for the important special case that the biomarker is constant in the placebo arm, we study the controlled vaccine efficacy curve that contrasts the controlled risk curve with placebo arm risk. We provide identification conditions and formulae that account for right censoring of the clinical endpoint and two-phase sampling of the biomarker, and consider G-computation estimation and inference under a semiparametric model such as the Cox model. We add modular approaches to sensitivity analysis that quantify robustness of CoP evidence to unmeasured confounding. We provide an application to two phase 3 trials of a dengue vaccine indicating that controlled risk of dengue strongly varies with 50$\%$ neutralizing antibody titer. Our work introduces controlled effects causal mediation analysis to immune CoP evaluation.

Anti-Spike IgG antibodies as correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pre-Omicron and Omicron era.

Anti-Spike IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, which are elicited by vaccination and infection, are correlates of protection against infection with pre-Omicron variants. Whether this association can be generalized to infections with Omicron variants is unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 8457 blood donors in Tyrol, Austria, analyzing 15,340 anti-Spike IgG antibody measurements from March 2021 to December 2022 assessed by Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG II chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay. Using a Bayesian joint model, we estimated antibody trajectories and adjusted hazard ratios for incident SARS-CoV-2 infection ascertained by self-report or seroconversion of anti-Nucleocapsid antibodies. At the time of their earliest available anti-Spike IgG antibody measurement (median November 23, 2021), participants had a median age of 46.0 years (IQR 32.8-55.2), with 45.3% being female, 41.3% having a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 75.5% having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Among 6159 participants with endpoint data, 3700 incident SARS-CoV-2 infections with predominantly Omicron sublineages were recorded over a median of 8.8 months (IQR 5.7-12.4). The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio for SARS-CoV-2 associated with having twice the anti-Spike IgG antibody titer was 0.875 (95% credible interval 0.868-0.881) overall, 0.842 (0.827-0.856) during 2021, and 0.884 (0.877-0.891) during 2022 (all p < 0.001). The associations were similar in females and males (Pinteraction = 0.673) and across age (Pinteraction = 0.590). Higher anti-Spike IgG antibody titers were associated with reduced risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection across the entire observation period. While the magnitude of association was slightly weakened in the Omicron era, anti-Spike IgG antibody continues to be a suitable correlate of protection against newer SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Elucidating vaccine efficacy using a correlate of protection, demographics, and logistic regression.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine efficacy (VE) assessed in a randomized controlled clinical trial can be affected by demographic, clinical, and other subject-specific characteristics evaluated as baseline covariates. Understanding the effect of covariates on efficacy is key to decisions by vaccine developers and public health authorities. METHODS: This work evaluates the impact of including correlate of protection (CoP) data in logistic regression on its performance in identifying statistically and clinically significant covariates in settings typical for a vaccine phase 3 trial. The proposed approach uses CoP data and covariate data as predictors of clinical outcome (diseased versus non-diseased) and is compared to logistic regression (without CoP data) to relate vaccination status and covariate data to clinical outcome. RESULTS: Clinical trial simulations, in which the true relationship between CoP data and clinical outcome probability is a sigmoid function, show that use of CoP data increases the positive predictive value for detection of a covariate effect. If the true relationship is characterized by a decreasing convex function, use of CoP data does not substantially change positive or negative predictive value. In either scenario, vaccine efficacy is estimated more precisely (i.e., confidence intervals are narrower) in covariate-defined subgroups if CoP data are used, implying that using CoP data increases the ability to determine clinical significance of baseline covariate effects on efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposes and evaluates a novel approach for assessing baseline demographic covariates potentially affecting VE. Results show that the proposed approach can sensitively and specifically identify potentially important covariates and provides a method for evaluating their likely clinical significance in terms of predicted impact on vaccine efficacy. It shows further that inclusion of CoP data can enable more precise VE estimation, thus enhancing study power and/or efficiency and providing even better information to support health policy and development decisions.

Prognostic value of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Globally, over 772 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported. New variants of interest with corresponding spikes in case numbers continue to be identified. Vulnerable patients, including older adults or patients with severe comorbidities, continue to be at risk. A large body of evidence has been accumulated regarding anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies and COVID-19 but the usefulness of antibody measurements remains unclear. This systematic review aims to assess the prognostic value of anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies and their usefulness for guiding booster vaccinations. METHODS: Studies in English and published between January 2020 and October 2023 were included. Studies that relied on multiparameter-models or comprised fewer than 100 participants were excluded. PubMed and via the WHO COVID-19 research database, Embase and Medline databases were searched. Study selection and quality assessment was conducted independently by two researchers. RESULTS: After screening 1,160 studies, 33 studies comprising >30 million individuals were included. Anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies were strongly associated with reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2-infection and better outcomes, including mortality. Risk of infection and COVID-19 severity decreased with increasing antibody levels. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies are useful for early identification of high-risk patients and timely adjustment of therapy. Protective thresholds may be applied to advise booster vaccinations but verification in separate cohorts is required.

Enabling the evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines with correlates of protection.

In February 2023, a meeting about correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 was organized by the International Alliance for Biological Standardization, the European Plotkin Institute for Vaccinology, and Vaccinopolis. The meeting aimed at reviewing the evidence, drawing conclusions, and identifying knowledge gaps. Collection of evidence is not straightforward. Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection and are used for immunobridging studies within and between vaccine platforms for approval of new COVID-19 vaccines. In preparation for the next pandemic, it is vital that rapidly authorized initial vaccines are available to perform immunobridging studies very early. Additional components of the immune response likely contribute to protection against symptomatic infection. Current evidence is strongest for T lymphocytes and binding antibodies. Further studies are needed to consolidate this evidence and define their potential role in the evaluation of vaccines. For evaluation of mucosal vaccines, identifying CoPs against infection and transmission is key; further research is needed to identify and standardize methods suitable for clinical studies. CoPs for broadly protective beta-coronavirus vaccines remain a critical area of research. The knowledge, expertise, and capacity exist to conduct clinical studies using different designs in different populations to discover and validate CoPs, facilitating and accelerating evaluation of novel vaccines/vaccination platforms.

A controlled effects approach to assessing immune correlates of protection.

An immune correlate of risk (CoR) is an immunologic biomarker in vaccine recipients associated with an infectious disease clinical endpoint. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) is a CoR that can be used to reliably predict vaccine efficacy (VE) against the clinical endpoint and hence is accepted as a surrogate endpoint that can be used for accelerated approval or guide use of vaccines. In randomized, placebo-controlled trials, CoR analysis is limited by not assessing a causal vaccine effect. To address this limitation, we construct the controlled risk curve of a biomarker, which provides the causal risk of an endpoint if all participants are assigned vaccine and the biomarker is set to different levels. Furthermore, we propose a causal CoP analysis based on controlled effects, where for the important special case that the biomarker is constant in the placebo arm, we study the controlled vaccine efficacy curve that contrasts the controlled risk curve with placebo arm risk. We provide identification conditions and formulae that account for right censoring of the clinical endpoint and two-phase sampling of the biomarker, and consider G-computation estimation and inference under a semiparametric model such as the Cox model. We add modular approaches to sensitivity analysis that quantify robustness of CoP evidence to unmeasured confounding. We provide an application to two phase 3 trials of a dengue vaccine indicating that controlled risk of dengue strongly varies with 50$\%$ neutralizing antibody titer. Our work introduces controlled effects causal mediation analysis to immune CoP evaluation.

Semiparametric pseudo-score and pseudo-likelihood for evaluating correlate of protection in vaccine trials.

In vaccine clinical trials, vaccine efficacy endpoint analysis is usually associated with in high cost or extended study duration, due to the generally low infection rate. Correlate of protection (CoP), which refers to surrogate endpoint, usually immunological response, that can reliably predict the treatment effect, provides a more efficient and less costly approach to evaluate the vaccine. To handle the challenge of the missingness in the unobserved surrogate immune biomarker, the pseudo-score (PS) method, semiparametric method and pseudo-likelihood (PL) method demonstrated their advantages on different aspects. In this article, we propose new methodologies to combine the advantages of PS and PL with semiparametric methods respectively, to achieve higher estimate efficiency, allow continuous baseline predictor variable, and handle multiple surrogate markers. The advantage of our methodologies are demonstrated by a simulation study in different settings and applied to a case study, which eventually can improve the chance of a successful trial.

Immunity to SARS-CoV-2: What Do We Know and Should We Be Testing for It?

Preexisting immunity to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was nonexistent in humans, which coupled with high transmission rates of certain SARS-CoV-2 variants and limited vaccine uptake or availability, has collectively resulted in an ongoing global pandemic. The identification and establishment of one or multiple correlates of protection (CoP) against infectious pathogens is challenging, but beneficial from both the patient care and public health perspectives. Multiple studies have shown that neutralizing antibodies, whether generated following SARS-CoV-2 infection, vaccination, or a combination of both (i.e., hybrid immunity), as well as adaptive cellular immune responses, serve as CoPs for COVID-19. However, the diverse number and type of serologic assays, alongside the lack of cross-assay standardization and emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants with immune evasive characteristics, have collectively posed challenges to determining a robust CoP 'threshold' and for the routine utilization of these assays to document 'immunity,' as is commonly done for other vaccine preventable diseases. Here, we discuss what CoPs are, review our current understanding of infection-induced, vaccine-elicited and hybrid immunity to COVID-19 and summarize the current and potential future utility of SARS-CoV-2 serologic testing.

Association of Group B Streptococcus (GBS) Serum Serotype-Specific Anticapsular Immunoglobulin G Concentration and Risk Reduction for Invasive GBS Disease in South African Infants: An Observational Birth-Cohort, Matched Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Licensure of a group B Streptococcus (GBS) polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccine for protecting infants against invasive GBS disease (IGbsD) will likely need to be based on demonstrating vaccine safety in pregnant women, and benchmarking immunogenicity against a serological threshold associated with risk reduction of IGbsD. We investigated the association between naturally derived GBS serotype Ia and III IgG and risk reduction of IGbsD in infants ≤90 days of age. METHODS: In a matched case-control study, IGbsD cases were identified from a cohort of 38 233 mother-newborn dyads. Mothers colonized vaginally with serotype Ia or III at birth and their healthy infants were eligible as matched controls. GBS serotype-specific anticapsular immunoglobulin G (IgG) was measured on maternal and cord blood/infant sera by multiplex Luminex assay, and the IgG threshold associated with 90% risk reduction of IGbsD was derived by estimating absolute disease risk. RESULTS: In infants born at ≥34 weeks' gestational age, cord-blood IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) were lower in cases than controls for serotypes Ia (0.05 vs 0.50 µg/mL; P = .004) and III (0.20 vs 0.38 µg/mL; P = .078). Cord-blood IgG concentrations ≥1.04 and ≥1.53 µg/mL were associated with 90% risk reduction of serotype Ia and III IGbsD, respectively. The maternal sera IgG threshold associated with 90% risk reduction was ≥2.31 µg/mL and ≥3.41 µg/mL for serotypes Ia and III, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The threshold associated with a reduced risk for serotype Ia and III IGbsD identified on infant sera supports the case for licensure of a GBS polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccine based on an immunogenicity evaluation benchmarked against the defined thresholds. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02215226.

Postvaccination Serum Antirotavirus Immunoglobulin A as a Correlate of Protection Against Rotavirus Gastroenteritis Across Settings.

BACKGROUND: A correlate of protection for rotavirus gastroenteritis would facilitate rapid assessment of vaccination strategies and the next generation of rotavirus vaccines. We aimed to quantify a threshold of postvaccine serum antirotavirus immunoglobulin A (IgA) as an individual-level immune correlate of protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis. METHODS: Individual-level data on 5074 infants in 9 GlaxoSmithKline Rotarix Phase 2/3 clinical trials from 16 countries were pooled. Cox proportional hazard models were fit to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) describing the relationship between IgA thresholds and occurrence of rotavirus gastroenteritis. RESULTS: Seroconversion (IgA ≥ 20 U/mL) conferred substantial protection against any and severe rotavirus gastroenteritis to age 1 year. In low child mortality settings, seroconversion provided near perfect protection against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (HR, 0.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], .01-.31). In high child mortality settings, seroconversion dramatically reduced the risk of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, .25-.86). As IgA threshold increased, risk of rotavirus gastroenteritis generally decreased. A given IgA threshold provided better protection in low compared to high child mortality settings. DISCUSSION: Postvaccination antirotavirus IgA is a valuable correlate of protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis to age 1 year. Seroconversion provides an informative threshold for assessing rotavirus vaccine performance.

What Is the Evidence to Support a Correlate of Protection for Measles? A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Many studies assume that the serologic correlate of protection from measles disease is 120 mIU/mL. We systematically reviewed the literature to examine the evidence supporting this correlate of protection. METHODS: We searched peer-reviewed and gray literature for articles reporting a measles correlate of protection. We excluded studies focusing on special populations, infants aged <9 months, and those using animal models or nonstandard vaccines or administration routes. We extracted and synthesized data from full-text articles that met inclusion criteria. RESULTS: We screened 14 778 articles and included 5 studies in our review. The studies reported either preexposure antibody concentrations of individuals along with a description of symptoms postexposure, or the proportion of measles cases that had preexposure antibody concentrations above a threshold of immunity specified by the authors. Some studies also described secondary antibody responses upon exposure. The variation in laboratory methods between studies made comparisons difficult. Some of the studies that assumed 120 mIU/mL as a correlate of protection identified symptomatic individuals with preexposure titers exceeding this threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the scant data upon which the commonly used 120 mIU/mL measles threshold of protection is based, suggesting that further work is required to characterize the measles immunity threshold.

Changes in the Molecular and Functional Phenotype of Bovine Monocytes during Theileria parva Infection.

Theileria parva is the causative agent of East Coast fever (ECF), a tick-borne disease that kills over a million cattle each year in sub-Saharan Africa. Immune protection against T. parva involves a CD8+ cytotoxic T cell response to parasite-infected cells. However, there is currently a paucity of knowledge regarding the role played by innate immune cells in ECF pathogenesis and T. parva control. Here, we demonstrate an increase in intermediate monocytes (CD14++ CD16+) with a concomitant decrease in the classical (CD14++ CD16-) and nonclassical (CD14+ CD16+) subsets at 12 days postinfection (dpi) during lethal infection but not during nonlethal T. parva infection. Ex vivo analyses of monocytes demonstrated upregulation of interleukin-1 beta (IL-1ß) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) mRNA and increased nitric oxide production during T. parva lethal infection compared to nonlethal infection at 10 dpi. Interestingly, no significant differences in peripheral blood parasite loads were observed between lethally and nonlethally infected animals at 12 dpi. In vitro stimulation with T. parva schizont-infected cells or Escherichia coli lipopolysaccharide (LPS) resulted in significant upregulation of IL-1ß production by monocytes from lethally infected cattle compared to those from nonlethally infected animals. Strikingly, monocytes from lethally infected animals produced significant amounts of IL-10 mRNA after stimulation with T. parva schizont-infected cells. In conclusion, we demonstrate that T. parva infection leads to alterations in the molecular and functional phenotypes of bovine monocytes. Importantly, since these changes primarily occur in lethal infection, they can serve as biomarkers for ECF progression and severity, thereby aiding in the standardization of protection assessment for T. parva candidate vaccines.

Influenza Hemagglutination-inhibition Antibody Titer as a Mediator of Vaccine-induced Protection for Influenza B.

BACKGROUND: The hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay is an established correlate of protection for the inactivated influenza vaccine. However, the proportion of vaccine-induced protection that is mediated by the post-vaccination HAI titer has not been assessed. METHODS: We used data from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of a split-virion inactivated influenza vaccine in children aged 6-17 years. Sera were collected before and 30 days after receipt of vaccination or placebo and tested by the HAI assay against B/Brisbane/60/2008-like (B/Victoria lineage). We fitted Cox proportional hazards models to the time to laboratory-confirmed influenza B. We used causal mediation analysis to estimate the proportion of the total effect of vaccination that was mediated by higher HAI titers. RESULTS: We estimated that vaccine efficacy against confirmed B/Victoria infection was 68% (95% confidence interval, 33%, 88%), and post-vaccination HAI titers explained 57% of the effect of vaccination on protection. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the effect of inactivated influenza vaccination in children is mediated by the increased HAI titer after vaccination; however, other components of the immune response to vaccination may also play a role in protection and should be further explored. Causal mediation analysis provides a framework to quantify the role of various mediators of protection.

Combination Adenovirus and Protein Vaccines Prevent Infection or Reduce Viral Burden after Heterologous Clade C Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus Mucosal Challenge.

HIV vaccine development is focused on designing immunogens and delivery methods that elicit protective immunity. We evaluated a combination of adenovirus (Ad) vectors expressing HIV 1086.C (clade C) envelope glycoprotein (Env), SIV Gag p55, and human pegivirus GBV-C E2 glycoprotein. We compared replicating simian (SAd7) with nonreplicating human (Ad4) adenovirus-vectored vaccines paired with recombinant proteins in a novel prime-boost regimen in rhesus macaques, with the goal of eliciting protective immunity against SHIV challenge. In both vaccine groups, plasma and buccal Env-specific IgG, tier 1 heterologous neutralizing antibodies, and antibody-dependent cell-mediated viral inhibition were readily generated. High Env-specific T cell responses elicited in all vaccinees were significantly greater than responses targeting Gag. After three intrarectal exposures to heterologous tier 1 clade C SHIV, all 10 sham-vaccinated controls were infected, whereas 4/10 SAd7- and 3/10 Ad4-vaccinated macaques remained uninfected or maintained tightly controlled plasma viremia. Time to infection was significantly delayed in SAd7-vaccinated macaques compared to the controls. Cell-associated and plasma virus levels were significantly lower in each group of vaccinated macaques compared to controls; the lowest plasma viral burden was found in animals vaccinated with the SAd7 vectors, suggesting superior immunity conferred by the replicating simian vectors. Furthermore, higher V1V2-specific binding antibody titers correlated with viral control in the SAd7 vaccine group. Thus, recombinant Ad plus protein vaccines generated humoral and cellular immunity that was effective in either protecting from SHIV acquisition or significantly reducing viremia in animals that became infected, consequently supporting additional development of replicating Ad vectors as HIV vaccines.IMPORTANCE There is a well-acknowledged need for an effective AIDS vaccine that protects against HIV infection and limits in vivo viral replication and associated pathogenesis. Although replicating virus vectors have been advanced as HIV vaccine platforms, there have not been any direct comparisons of the replicating to the nonreplicating format. The present study directly compared the replicating SAd7 to nonreplicating Ad4 vectors in macaques and demonstrated that in the SAd7 vaccine group, the time to infection was significantly delayed compared to the control group, and V1V2 Env-specific binding antibodies correlated with viral outcomes. Viral control was significantly enhanced in vaccinated macaques compared to controls, and in infected SAd7-vaccinated macaques compared to Ad4-vaccinated macaques, suggesting that this vector may have conferred more effective immunity. Because blocking infection is so difficult with current vaccines, development of a vaccine that can limit viremia if infection occurs would be valuable. These data support further development of replicating adenovirus vectors.

Assessing correlates of protection in vaccine trials: statistical solutions in the context of high vaccine efficacy.

BACKGROUND: The use of correlates of protection (CoPs) in vaccination trials offers significant advantages as useful clinical endpoint substitutes. Vaccines with very high vaccine efficacy (VE) are documented in the literature (VE ≥95%). The rare events (number of infections) observed in the vaccinated groups of these trials posed challenges when applying conventionally-used statistical methods for CoP assessment. In this paper, we describe the nature of these challenges, and propose easy-to-implement and uniquely-tailored statistical solutions for the assessment of CoPs in the specific context of high VE. METHODS: The Prentice criteria and meta-analytic frameworks are standard statistical methods for assessing vaccine CoPs, but can be problematic in high VE cases due to the rare events data available. As a result, lack of fit and the problem of infinite estimates may arise, in the former and latter methods respectively. The use of flexible models within the Prentice framework, and penalized-likelihood methods to solve the issue of infinite estimates can improve the performance of both methods in high VE settings. RESULTS: We have 1) devised flexible non-linear models to counteract the Prentice framework lack of fit, providing sufficient statistical power to the method, and 2) proposed the use of penalised likelihood approaches to make the meta-analytic framework applicable on randomized subgroups, such as regions. The performance of the proposed methods for high VE cases was evaluated by running simulations. CONCLUSIONS: As vaccines with high efficacy are documented in the literature, there is a need to identify effective statistical solutions to assess CoPs. Our proposed adaptations are straight-forward and improve the performance of conventional statistical methods for high VE data, leading to more reliable CoP assessments in the context of high VE settings.

Use of saliva to monitor meningococcal vaccine responses: proposing a threshold in saliva as surrogate of protection.

BACKGROUND: Mucosal antibodies against capsular polysaccharides offer protection against acquisition and carriage of encapsulated bacteria like Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C. Measurements of salivary antibodies as replacement for blood testing has important (cost-effective) advantages, particular in studies that assess the impact of large-scale vaccination or in populations in which blood sampling is difficult. This study aimed to estimate a threshold for meningococcal IgG salivary antibody levels to discriminate between unprotected and protected vaccinated individuals. METHODS: MenA-, MenC-, MenW- and MenY-polysaccharide (PS) specific IgG levels in serum and saliva from participants in a meningococcal vaccination study were measured using the fluorescent-bead-based multiplex immunoassay. Functional antibody titers in serum against the four serogroups were measured with serum bactericidal assay using rabbit complement (rSBA). A threshold for salivary IgG was determined by analysis of ROC curves using a serum rSBA titer ≥128 as correlate of protection. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to quantify the accuracy of the salivary test and was considered adequate when ≥0.80. The optimal cut-off was considered adequate when salivary IgG cut-off levels provided specificity of ≥90%. True positive rate (sensitivity), positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated to explore the possible use of salivary antibody levels as a surrogate of protection. RESULTS: The best ROC curve (AUC of 0.95) was obtained for MenC, with an estimated minimum threshold of MenC-PS specific salivary IgG ≥3.54 ng/mL as surrogate of protection. An adequate AUC (> 0.80) was also observed for MenW and MenY with an estimated minimal threshold of 2.00 and 1.82 ng/mL, respectively. When applying these thresholds, all (100%) samples collected 1 month and 1 year after the (booster) meningococcal vaccination, that were defined as protective in the saliva test for MenC, MenW and MenY, corresponded with concomitant serum rSBA titer ≥128 for the respective meningococcal serogroups. CONCLUSION: The saliva test offers an alternative screening tool to monitor protective vaccine responses up to one year after meningococcal vaccination against MenC, MenW and MenY. Future (large) longitudinal vaccination studies evaluating also clinical protection against IMD or carriage acquisition are required to validate the currently proposed threshold in saliva.

Neutralizing Antibody Correlates Analysis of Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine Efficacy Trials in Asia and Latin America.

Background: In the CYD14 and CYD15 Phase 3 trials of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine, estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) occurring between months 13 and 25 was 56.5% and 60.8%, respectively. Methods: Neutralizing antibody titers to the 4 dengue serotypes in the CYD-TDV vaccine insert were measured at month 13 in a randomly sampled immunogenicity subcohort and in all VCD cases through month 25 (2848 vaccine, 1574 placebo) and studied for their association with VCD and with the level of VE to prevent VCD. Results: For each trial and serotype, vaccinees with higher month 13 titer to the serotype had significantly lower risk of VCD with that serotype (hazard ratios, 0.19-0.43 per 10-fold increase). Moreover, for each trial, vaccinees with higher month 13 average titer to the 4 serotypes had significantly higher VE against VCD of any serotype (P < .001). Conclusions: Neutralizing antibody titers postdose 3 correlate with CYD-TDV VE to prevent dengue. High titers associate with high VE for all serotypes, baseline serostatus groups, age groups, and both trials. However, lowest titers do not fully correspond to zero VE, indicating that other factors influence VE.

Encapsulation of an EP67-Conjugated CTL Peptide Vaccine in Nanoscale Biodegradable Particles Increases the Efficacy of Respiratory Immunization and Affects the Magnitude and Memory Subsets of Vaccine-Generated Mucosal and Systemic CD8+ T Cells in a Diameter-Dependent Manner.

The diameter of biodegradable particles used to coencapsulate immunostimulants and subunit vaccines affects the magnitude of memory CD8+ T cells generated by systemic immunization. Possible effects on the magnitude of CD8+ T cells generated by mucosal immunization or memory subsets that potentially correlate more strongly with protection against certain pathogens, however, are unknown. In this study, we conjugated our novel host-derived mucosal immunostimulant, EP67, to the protective MCMV CTL epitope, pp89, through a lysosomal protease-labile double arginine linker (pp89-RR-EP67) and encapsulated in PLGA 50:50 micro- or nanoparticles. We then compared total magnitude, effector/central memory (CD127/KRLG1/CD62L), and IFN-γ/TNF-α/IL-2 secreting subsets of pp89-specific CD8+ T cells as well as protection of naive female BALB/c mice against primary respiratory infection with MCMV 21 days after respiratory immunization. We found that decreasing the diameter of encapsulating particle from ∼5.4 µm to ∼350 nm (i) increased the magnitude of pp89-specific CD8+ T cells in the lungs and spleen; (ii) partially changed CD127/KLRG1 effector memory subsets in the lungs but not the spleen; (iii) changed CD127/KRLG1/CD62L effector/central memory subsets in the spleen; (iv) changed pp89-responsive IFN-γ/TNF-α/IL-2 secreting subsets in the lungs and spleen; (v) did not affect the extent to which encapsulation increased efficacy against primary MCMV respiratory infection over unencapsulated pp89-RR-EP67. Thus, although not observed under our current experimental conditions with MCMV, varying the diameter of nanoscale biodegradable particles may increase the efficacy of mucosal immunization with coencapsulated immunostimulant/subunit vaccines against certain pathogens by selectively increasing memory subset(s) of CD8+ T cells that correlate the strongest with protection.

Identification of immune correlates of protection in Shigella infection by application of machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Immunologic correlates of protection are important in vaccine development because they give insight into mechanisms of protection, assist in the identification of promising vaccine candidates, and serve as endpoints in bridging clinical vaccine studies. Our goal is the development of a methodology to identify immunologic correlates of protection using the Shigella challenge as a model. METHODS: The proposed methodology utilizes the Random Forests (RF) machine learning algorithm as well as Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to detect immune markers that predict protection, identify interactions between variables, and define optimal cutoffs. Logistic regression modeling is applied to estimate the probability of protection and the confidence interval (CI) for such a probability is computed by bootstrapping the logistic regression models. RESULTS: The results demonstrate that the combination of Classification and Regression Trees and Random Forests complements the standard logistic regression and uncovers subtle immune interactions. Specific levels of immunoglobulin IgG antibody in blood on the day of challenge predicted protection in 75% (95% CI 67-86). Of those subjects that did not have blood IgG at or above a defined threshold, 100% were protected if they had IgA antibody secreting cells above a defined threshold. Comparison with the results obtained by applying only logistic regression modeling with standard Akaike Information Criterion for model selection shows the usefulness of the proposed method. CONCLUSION: Given the complexity of the immune system, the use of machine learning methods may enhance traditional statistical approaches. When applied together, they offer a novel way to quantify important immune correlates of protection that may help the development of vaccines.

Breadth and magnitude of antigen-specific antibody responses in the control of plasma viremia in simian immunodeficiency virus infected macaques.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests an unexpected potential for non-neutralizing antibodies to prevent HIV infection. Consequently, identification of functional linear B-cell epitopes for HIV are important for developing preventative and therapeutic strategies. We therefore explored the role of antigen-specific immune responses in controlling plasma viremia in SIV infected rhesus macaques. METHODS: Thirteen rhesus macaques were inoculated either intravaginally or intrarectally with SIVMAC251. Peripheral blood CD4+ T-cells were quantified. Plasma was examined for viremia, antigen specific IgG, IgA and IgM binding responses and neutralizing antibodies. Regions containing binding epitopes for antigen-specific IgG, IgM and IgA responses were determined, and the minimum size of linear Envelope epitope responsible for binding antibodies was identified. RESULTS: The presence of neutralizing antibodies did not correlate the outcome of the disease. In a few SIV-infected macaques, antigen-specific IgG and IgM responses in plasma correlated with decreased plasma viremia. Early induction and the breadth of antigen-specific IgG responses were found to be significantly correlated with the control of plasma viral load. Immunoglobulin classes share similar functional linear B-cell epitopes. SIV-specific linear envelope B-cell epitopes were found to be 12 amino-acids in length. CONCLUSIONS: Early induction of combination of peptide-specific IgG responses were found to be responsible for the control of plasma viral load and indicative of disease outcome in SIV-infected rhesus macaques and might be important for the development of therapeutic strategies for control or prevention of HIV/AIDS.