Early mortality in children with cancer in Denmark and Sweden: The role of social background in a setting with universal healthcare.

Socioeconomic differences in overall survival from childhood cancer have been shown previously, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We aimed to investigate if social inequalities were seen already for early mortality in settings with universal healthcare. From national registers, all children diagnosed with cancer at ages 0-19 years, during 1991-2014, in Sweden and Denmark, were identified, and information on parental social characteristics was collected. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of early mortality (death within 90 days after cancer diagnosis) by parental education, income, employment, cohabitation, and country of birth using logistic regression. For children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), clinical characteristics were obtained. Among 13,926 included children, 355 (2.5%) died within 90 days after diagnosis. Indications of higher early mortality were seen among the disadvantaged groups, with the most pronounced associations observed for maternal education (ORadj_Low_vs_High 1.65 [95% CI 1.22-2.23]) and income (ORadj_Q1(lowest)_vs_Q4(highest) 1.77 [1.25-2.49]). We found attenuated or null associations between social characteristics and later mortality (deaths occurring 1-5 years after cancer diagnosis). In children with ALL, the associations between social factors and early mortality remained unchanged when adjusting for potential mediation by clinical characteristics. In conclusion, this population-based cohort study indicated differences in early mortality after childhood cancer by social background, also in countries with universal healthcare. Social differences occurring this early in the disease course requires further investigation, also regarding the timing of diagnosis.

Development and validation of an early mortality risk model for pediatric hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis: a comparison with HScore, PELOD-2, P-MODS, and pSOFA.

There has been no severity evaluation model for pediatric patients with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) that uses readily available parameters. This study aimed to develop a novel model for predicting the early mortality risk in pediatric patients with HLH using easily obtained parameters whatever etiologic subtype. Patients from one center were divided into training and validation sets for model derivation. The developed model was validated using an independent validation cohort from the second center. The prediction model with nomogram was developed based on logistic regression. The model performance underwent internal and external evaluation and validation using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve with 1000 bootstrap resampling, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Model performance was compared with the most prevalent severity evaluation scores, including the PELOD-2, P-MODS, and pSOFA scores. The prediction model included nine variables: glutamic-pyruvic transaminase, albumin, globulin, myohemoglobin, creatine kinase, serum potassium, procalcitonin, serum ferritin, and interval between onset and diagnosis. The AUC of the model for predicting the 28-day mortality was 0.933 and 0.932 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The AUC values of the HScore, PELOD-2, P-MODS and pSOFA were 0.815, 0.745, 0.659 and 0.788, respectively. The DCA of the 28-day mortality prediction exhibited a greater net benefit than the HScore, PELOD-2, P-MODS and pSOFA. Subgroup analyses demonstrated good model performance across HLH subtypes. The novel mortality prediction model in this study can contribute to the rapid assessment of early mortality risk after diagnosis with readily available parameters.

The influence of hospital volume and physician volume on early mortality in acute promyelocytic leukemia patients.

Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a highly curable hematologic malignancy in the era of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) combination treatment. However, only a modest change in early mortality rate has been observed despite the wide availability of ATRA. In addition to the clinical characteristics of APL patients, studies on the hospital volume-outcome relationship and the physician volume-outcome relationship remained limited. We aim to evaluate the association between hospital and physician volume and the early mortality rate among APL patients. The patients were collected from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Early mortality is defined as death within 30 days of diagnosis. Patients were categorized into four groups according to individual cumulative hospital and physician volume. The risk of all-cause mortality in APL patients with different cumulative volume groups was compared using a Cox proportional hazard model. The probability of overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. All 741 patients were divided into four quartile volume groups. In the multivariate analysis, only physician volume was significantly associated with early mortality rate. The physician volume of the highest quartile was a protective factor for early mortality compared with the physician volume of the lowest quartile (HR 0.10, 95% CI 0.02-0.65). Hospital characteristics were not associated with early mortality. In the sensitivity analyses, the results remained consistent using two other different definitions of early mortality. Higher physician volume was independently associated with lower early mortality, while hospital volume was not. Enhancing the clinical expertise of low-volume physicians may ensure better outcomes.

Development and validation of comprehensive nomograms from the SEER database for predicting early mortality in metastatic rectal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Metastatic rectal cancer is an incurable malignancy, which is prone to early mortality. We aimed to establish nomograms for predicting the risk of early mortality in patients with metastatic rectal cancer. METHODS: In this study, clinical data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.We utilized X-tile software to determine the optimal cut-off points of age and tumor size in diagnosis. Significant independent risk factors for all-cause and cancer-specific early mortality were determined by the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, then we construct two practical nomograms. In order to assess the predictive performance of nomograms, we performed calibration plots, time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC). RESULTS: A total of 2570 metastatic rectal cancer patients were included in the study. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that age at diagnosis, CEA level, tumor size, surgical intervention, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and metastases to bone, brain, liver, and lung were independently associated with early mortality of metastatic rectal cancer patients in the training cohort. The area under the curve (AUC) values of nomograms for all-cause and cancer-specific early mortality were all higher than 0.700. Calibration curves indicated that the nomograms accurately predicted early mortality and exhibited excellent discrimination. DCA and CIC showed moderately positive net benefits. CONCLUSIONS: This study successfully generated applicable nomograms that predicted the high-risk early mortality of metastatic rectal cancer patients, which can assist clinicians in tailoring more effective treatment regimens.

Time and Risk Factors of Trauma-Related Mortality: A 5-Year Retrospective Analysis From a National Level I Trauma Center.

Background: We aimed to analyze in-hospital timing and risk factors for mortality in a level 1 trauma center. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of all trauma-related mortality between 2013 and 2018. Patients were divided and analyzed based on the time of mortality (early (≤48 h) vs late (>48 h)), and within different age groups. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to predict in-hospital mortality. Results: 8624 trauma admissions and 677 trauma-related deaths occurred (47.7% at the scene and 52.3% in-hospital). Among in-hospital mortality, the majority were males, with a mean age of 35.8 ± 17.2 years. Most deaths occurred within 3-7 days (35%), followed by 33% after 1 week, 20% on the first day, and 12% on the second day of admission. Patients with early mortality were more likely to have a lower Glasgow coma scale, a higher shock index, a higher chest and abdominal abbreviated injury score, and frequently required exploratory laparotomy and massive blood transfusion (P < .005). The injury severity scores and proportions of head injuries were higher in the late mortality group than in the early group. The severity of injuries, blood transfusion, in-hospital complications, and length of intensive care unit stay were comparable among the age groups, whereas mortality was higher in the age group of 19 to 44. The higher proportions of early and late in-hospital deaths were evident in the age group of 24 to 29. In multivariate analysis, the shock index (OR 2.26; 95%CI 1.04-4.925; P = .04) was an independent predictor of early death, whereas head injury was a predictor of late death (OR 4.54; 95%CI 1.92-11.11; P = .001). Conclusion: One-third of trauma-related mortalities occur early after injury. The initial shock index appears to be a reliable hemodynamic indicator for predicting early mortality. Therefore, timely hemostatic resuscitation and appropriate interventions for bleeding control may prevent early mortality.

The IMPACT Score: A New Score to Predict the Risk of Early Mortality in Cardiogenic Shock Patients Treated With Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

OBJECTIVES: Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) requires considerable human and financial resources. Few studies have focused on early mortality (ie, occurring within 72 hours after VA-ECMO implantation). The objective of this study was to establish a prognosis score-the IMPACT score (prediction of early mortality associated with VA-ECMO using preimplantation characteristics)-by determining the risk factors associated with early mortality. DESIGN: This was a retrospective and observational study. SETTING: The study was conducted at a University hospital. PARTICIPANTS: This single-center retrospective study included 147 patients treated with VA-ECMO for cardiogenic shock between 2014 and 2021. METHODS: The primary outcome was early mortality (ie, occurring within 72 hours after VA-ECMO implantation). Multivariate logistic regression was performed using a bootstrapping methodology to identify factors independently associated with early mortality. To construct the score, identified variables had points (pts) assigned corresponding to their odds ratio. RESULTS: A total of 147 patients were included in the study. Early mortality (<72 hours) was 26% (38 patients). Four variables were established: cardiac arrest (2 pts), lactate levels (3 pts), platelet count <100 g/L (4 pts), and renal-replacement therapy (5 pts). The IMPACT score had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 (95% CI 0.86-0.70) to predict early mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In the authors' experience, 26% of patients treated with VA-ECMO presented early mortality. The IMPACT score is a reliable predictor of early mortality and may assist with VA-ECMO initiation decision-making.

Association between longest-held occupation and mortality risk.

BACKGROUND: Occupation is associated with a large part of daily activities, affecting lifestyle and social status. However, limited research exists on the association between longest-held occupation (LHO) and early mortality. We examine if LHO is associated with mortality risk among US adults 51 years of age and older. METHODS: Using Health and Retirement Study data from 1992 to 2020, we followed 26,758 respondents 51 years of age and older for up to 29 years. We used competing-risks analysis methodology to estimate the risk of mortality. RESULTS: Across the average 20.5 follow-up years, women with LHO in the categories of machine operators (subhazard ratio [SHR]: 1.42), food preparation (SHR: 1.39), handlers and helpers (SHR: 1.35), and sales (SHR: 1.15), were more likely to die earlier than women with the LHO in the professional and technical support occupation, the reference occupation. Men with LHO in the categories of food preparation (SHR: 1.43), machine operators (SHR: 1.36), personal services (SHR: 1.34), handlers and helpers (SHR: 1.32), protective services (SHR: 1.31), clerical (SHR: 1.27), farming and fishing (SHR: 1.26), sales (SHR: 1.23), and precision production (SHR: 1.20) had elevated risks of mortality compared to men whose LHO was in the referent professional and technical support occupation. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study provide comprehensive and current evidence that occupation can be one of the risk factors for adverse health outcomes and ultimately for early mortality.

Early mortality in acute myeloid leukemia with KMT2A rearrangement is associated with high risk of bleeding and disseminated intravascular coagulation.

BACKGROUND: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with rearrangement of lysine methyltransferase 2a gene (KMT2Ar) is characterized by chemotherapy resistance and high rates of relapse. However, additional causes of treatment failure or early mortality have not been well-defined in this entity. METHODS: In a retrospective analysis, causes and rates of early mortality following induction treatment were compared between a cohort of adults with KMT2Ar AML (N = 172) and an age-matched cohort of patients with normal karyotype AML (N = 522). RESULTS: The 60-day mortality in patients with KMT2Ar AML was 15% compared with 7% with normal karyotype (p = .04). We found a significantly higher occurrence of major bleeding events (p = .005) and total bleeding events (p = .001) in KMT2Ar AML compared with diploid AML. Among evaluable patients with KMT2Ar AML, 93% exhibited overt disseminated intravascular coagulopathy compared with 54% of patients with a normal karyotype before death (p = .03). In a multivariate analysis, KMT2Ar and a monocytic phenotypic were the only independent predictors of any bleeding event in patients who died within 60 days (odds ratio, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.4-10.4; p = .03; odds ratio, 3.2; 95% CI, 1-1-9.4; p = .04, respectively). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, early recognition and aggressive management of disseminated intravascular coagulopathy and coagulopathy are important considerations that could mitigate the risk of death during induction treatment in KMT2Ar AML. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with rearrangement of KMT2A is characterized by chemotherapy resistance and high rates of relapse. However, additional causes of treatment failure or early mortality have not been well-defined in this entity. In this article, that KMT2A-rearranged AML is demonstrably associated with higher early mortality and an increased risk of bleeding and coagulopathy, specifically, disseminated intravascular coagulation, compared with normal karyotype AML. These findings emphasize the importance of monitoring and mitigating coagulopathy in KMT2A-rearranged leukemia similar to what is done in acute promyelocytic leukemia.

Prediction of survival with lower intensity therapy among older patients with acute myeloid leukemia.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model for survival in older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who were treated with lower-intensity chemotherapy regimens. METHODS: The authors reviewed all older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed AML who received lower-intensity chemotherapy from 2000 until 2020 at their institution. A total of 1462 patients were included. They were divided (3:1 basis) into a training (n = 1088) and a validation group (n = 374). RESULTS: In the training cohort of 1088 patients (median age, 72 years), the multivariate analysis identified 11 consistent independent adverse factors associated with survival: older age, therapy-related myeloid neoplasm, existence of previous myelodysplastic syndrome or myeloproliferative neoplasms, poor performance status, pulmonary comorbidity, anemia, thrombocytopenia, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, cytogenetic abnormalities, and the presence of infection at diagnosis, and therapy not containing venetoclax. The 3-year survival rates were 52%, 24%, 10%, and 1% in favorable, intermediate, poor, and very poor risk, respectively. This survival model was validated in an independent cohort. In a subset of patients in whom molecular mutation profiles were performed in more recent times, adding the mutation profiles after accounting for the effects of previous factors identified IDH2 (favorable), NPM1 (favorable), and TP53 (unfavorable) mutations as molecular prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: The proposed survival model with lower-intensity chemotherapy in older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed AML may help to advise patients on their expected outcome, to propose different strategies in first complete remission, and to compare the results of different existing or future investigational therapies. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Lower intensity therapy can be considered for older patients to avoid severe toxicities and adverse events. However, survival prediction in AML was commonly developed in patients who received intensive chemotherapy. In this study, we have proposed a survival model to guide therapeutic approach in older patients who received lower-intensity therapy.

A real-world data analysis of predictors of early mortality after a diagnosis of multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Despite the increased availability and use of novel therapies for multiple myeloma, early mortality is a pervasive challenge with a significant impact on older adults. Reported rates and predictors of early mortality have varied in the literature, with most studies seldom focusing on community-treated patients. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort analysis of a real-world electronic health record-derived deidentified database of 7512 patients newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma between January 1, 2011, and February 2, 2021, and treated primarily in US-based community oncology practices, factors associated with early mortality (defined as death within 6 months after the multiple myeloma diagnosis) were examined with the use of binary logistic regression. RESULTS: The median age was 70 years overall. We found an overall early mortality rate of 8.3%, with 73% of early deaths occurring in those aged ≥70 years. Among the early deaths, only 49 patients (8.7%) had documented disease progression before death (median time to progression, 30 days [interquartile range, 7-53 days]). Baseline factors associated with higher odds of early mortality included an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) ≥ 2, Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) stage III, an age ≥ 70 years, receipt of proteasome inhibitor-doublet therapy, a light-chain isotype, and the presence of renal dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min). Among those aged ≥70 years, ECOG PS ≥ 2 and R-ISS stage III remained the strongest predictors of early mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Early mortality disproportionately affects older adults (aged ≥70 years) with multiple myeloma. Interventions to support this population are needed to reduce disparate survival outcomes. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Factors associated with an increased risk of dying within 6 months (early mortality) of a new diagnosis of multiple myeloma (MM) among 7512 mostly community-treated patients with MM were evaluated. The early mortality rate was 8.3%; among those deaths, 49 patients (8.7%) had documented evidence of MM progression before death. The risk of early mortality was greatest for older patients (aged ≥70 years) and those with a poor performance status, poor kidney function, a higher disease stage, and light-chain MM and those receiving two-drug MM therapies. These findings highlight the need for supportive interventions geared toward older adults with MM.

The elderly prognostic index predicts early mortality in older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. An ad hoc analysis of the elderly project by the Fondazione Italiana Linfomi.

The Elderly Prognostic Index (EPI) is based on the integration of a simplified geriatric assessment, hemoglobin levels and International Prognostic Index and has been validated to predict overall survival in older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). In this study, we evaluated the ability of EPI to predict the risk of early mortality. This study included all patients registered in the Elderly Project for whom treatment details and a minimum follow-up of 3 months were available. Three main treatment groups were identified based on the anthracycline amount administered: cases receiving >70% of the theoretical anthracyclines dose (Full Dose [FD] group), ≤70% (Reduced Dose [RD]) and palliative therapy (PT; no anthracyclines). The primary endpoint was early mortality rate, defined as death for any cause occurring within 90 days from diagnosis. We identified 1150 patients with a median age of 76 years (range 65-94). Overall, 69 early deaths were observed, accounting for 19% of all reported deaths. The cumulative rate of early mortality at 90 days was 6.0%. Comparing early with delayed deaths, we observed a lower frequency of deaths due to lymphoma progression (42% vs. 75%; p < 0.001) and a higher frequency due to toxicity and infections (22% vs. 4%, p < 0.001, and 22% vs. 3%, p < 0.001, respectively) for early events. A multivariable logistic analysis on 931 patients (excluding PT) confirmed an independent association of high-risk EPI (odds ratio [OR] 3.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-11.2) and bulky disease (OR 2.08; 95% CI 1.09-3.97) with the risk of early mortality. The cumulative incidence of early mortality for older patients with DLBCL is not negligible and is mainly associated with non-lymphoma related events. For patients receiving anthracyclines, high-risk EPI and bulky disease are associated with a higher probability of early mortality.

Epidemiology and early mortality patterns of acute promyelocytic leukemia in the United States.

There is a lack of contemporary population-based data on the epidemiology of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) in the United States. In this study, we aim to elucidate the demographics and early mortality patterns of APL hospitalizations utilizing the National Inpatient Sample database from 2016-2019. APL's annual age-adjusted incidence rate was 0.28/100,000, and the incidence increased with age, with the peak incidence in the 75-79 age group at 0.62/100,000. Whites constituted the majority of admissions at 67.7%, followed by Hispanics at 15.3%, the youngest racial group with a median age of 40 years. The median length of stay was 31 days for patients age < 60 years and 25 days for age ≥ 60 years (p < 0.001). After adjusting for confounders, the mean length of stay was 7 days higher in teaching hospitals compared to non-teaching hospitals (p 0.001). Overall mortality was 12.1% (22.2% for age ≥ 60 and 6.4% for < 60 years {p < 0.001}), and 56.5% of deaths happened before 7 days, with the median time to death being 6 days. The proportion of early deaths (< 7 days) in non-teaching hospitals was higher than late deaths (≥ 7 days) (19.2% vs. 5%; p 0.03), and admission to a teaching hospital was associated with lower mortality (adjusted odds ratio 0.27; p 0.01). Therefore, optimal treatment strategies need to be explored to mitigate this significant early mortality, especially in non-teaching hospitals.

Clinical Predictors for Early Mortality of Patients with Acute Basilar Artery Occlusion.

BACKGROUND: Acute ischemic stroke due to basilar artery occlusion (BAO) is associated with the highest mortality in patients with large vessel occlusion. This study aimed to identify modifiable risk factors of early mortality in patients with BAO. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a cohort study of consecutive patients with BAO admitted to 47 stroke centers in China between January 2014 and May 2019. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 7 days after hospitalization. Of 829 patients, 164 died (0-3 days: 115; 4-7 days: 49) within 7 days after hospitalization. Among pre- and periprocedural variables, higher admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, adjusted OR, 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.09; p < 0.001), lower admission posterior circulation-Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score (pc-ASPECTS, adjusted OR, 0.88, 95% CI: 0.79-0.98; p = 0.02), lower Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography score (BATMAN, adjusted OR, 0.84, 95% CI: 0.76-0.93; p = 0.001), and recanalization failure (adjusted OR, 2.99, 95% CI: 2.04-4.38; p < 0.001) were independently associated with a higher risk of early mortality. Herniation (adjusted OR, 2.84, 95% CI: 1.52-5.30; p = 0.001) is an independent postprocedural predictor of early mortality. In patients dying ≤3 days, higher NIHSS (p < 0.001), lower pc-ASPECTS (p = 0.01), lower BATMAN (p = 0.004), recanalization failure (p < 0.001), herniation (p = 0.001), gastrointestinal hemorrhage (p = 0.046), and absence of pneumonia (p < 0.001) were independent predictors of early mortality. Higher NIHSS (p = 0.01), recanalization failure (p < 0.001), and pneumonia (p = 0.03) were independently associated with early mortality between 4 and 7 days. CONCLUSIONS: Recanalization failure, herniation, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and pneumonia are potentially modifiable risk factors for early mortality in basilar artery occlusion.

Impact of severe lymphopenia on the early prediction of clinical outcome in hospitalized patients with pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of an optimal and reproducible cutoff value set according to a predefined lymphopenia scale as an early predictor of in-hospital mortality and other outcomes in patients hospitalized with pneumococcal pneumonia and positive urinary antigen at admission to the emergency department. METHODS: An observational cohort study was conducted based on analysis of a prospective registry of consecutive immunocompetent adults hospitalized for pneumococcal pneumonia in two tertiary hospitals. Generalized additive models were constructed to assess the smooth relationship between in-hospital mortality and lymphopenia. RESULTS: We included 1173 patients. Lymphopenia on admission was documented in 686 (58.4%). No significant differences were observed between groups regarding the presence of comorbidities. Overall, 299 (25.5%) patients were admitted to intensive care and 90 (7.6%) required invasive mechanical ventilation. Fifty-nine (5%) patients died, among them 23 (38.9%) in the first 72 h after admission. A lymphocyte count < 500/µL, documented in 282 (24%) patients, was the predefined cutoff point that best predicted in-hospital mortality. After adjustment, these patients had higher rates of intensive care admission (OR 2.9; 95% CI 1.9-4.3), invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.2-3.9), septic shock (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-2.9), treatment failure (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.2-3.5), and in-hospital mortality (OR 2.2; 95% 1.1-4.9). Severe lymphopenia outperformed PSI score in predicting early and 30-day mortality in patients classified in the higher-risk classes. CONCLUSION: Lymphocyte count < 500/µL could be used as a reproducible predictor of complicated clinical course in patients with an early diagnosis of pneumococcal pneumonia.

Early-death weeks associated with COVID-19: a comparison among France, the UK and the USA.

BACKGROUND: Years of life lost (YLL) is recently used as a more insightful indicator to assess the mortality impact of COVID-19. However, this indicator still has methodological limits. This study aims to propose an alternative approach and new index, early-death weeks. METHODS: The natural mortality and social mortality laws were employed to support two essential assumptions: the sequential and translational early-mortality patterns of COVID-19. This approach was then used with the data related to COVID-19 to calculate early-death weeks associated with COVID-19 in France, the UK and the USA. RESULTS: As of week 20 of 2021, the rate of the total number of early-death weeks per the population of the USA is nearly two times compared to that of France and the UK, with 0.004% to 0.0021 and 0.0023%, respectively. The average numbers of early-death weeks after converting to units of years are 1.2, 1.0 and 1.3 years in France, the UK and the USA, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new approach is significantly different from death counts, excess deaths and YLL. The early-death week index provides more insights into COVID-19 and can be applied promptly at any time as well as anywhere once excess deaths have occurred.

Associations between abrupt transition, dialysis-requiring AKI, and early mortality in ESKD among U.S. veterans.

BACKGROUND: Mortality is high within the first few months of starting chronic dialysis. Pre-ESKD trajectory of kidney function has been shown to be predictive of early death after dialysis initiation. We aim to better understand how two key aspects of pre-dialysis kidney function-an abrupt transition pattern and an episode of dialysis-requiring AKI (AKI-D) leading directly to ESKD-are associated with early mortality after dialysis initiation. METHODS: We extracted national data from U.S. Veterans Health Administration cross-linked with the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) to identify patients who initiated hemodialysis during 2009-2013. We defined abrupt transition as having a mean outpatient eGFR ≥ 30 ml/min/1.73m2 within 1 year prior to ESKD. AKI-D was identified using inpatient serum creatinine measurements (serum Cr increase by at least 50% from baseline) along with billing codes for inpatient receipt of dialysis for AKI within 30 days prior to the ESKD start date. We used multivariable proportional hazards models to examine the association between patterns of kidney function prior to ESKD and all-cause mortality within 90 days after ESKD. RESULTS: Twenty-two thousand eight hundred fifteen patients were identified in the final analytic cohort of Veterans who initiated hemodialysis and entered the USRDS. We defined five patterns of kidney function decline. Most (68%) patients (N = 15,484) did not have abrupt transition and did not suffer an episode of AKI-D prior to ESKD (reference group). The remaining groups had abrupt transition, AKI-D, or both. Patients who had an abrupt transition with (N = 503) or without (N = 3611) AKI-D had the highest risk of early mortality after ESKD onset after adjustment for demographics and comorbidities (adjusted HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.66-2.65 for abrupt transition with AKI-D; adjusted HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.90-2.33 for abrupt transition without AKI-D). In contrast, patients who experienced AKI-D without an abrupt transition pattern (N = 2141 had only a modestly higher risk of early death (adjusted HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.01-1.40). CONCLUSIONS: An abrupt decline in kidney function within 1 year prior to ESKD occurred in nearly 1 in 5 incident hemodialysis patients (18%) in this national cohort of Veterans and was strongly associated with higher early mortality after ESKD onset.

The Relationship between Serum miRNAs and Early Mortality in Multiple Myeloma Patients Treated with Bortezomib-Based Regimens.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy characterized by the clonal proliferation of plasma cells in the bone marrow (BM) microenvironment. Despite the progress made in treatment, some MM patients still die within the first year of diagnosis. Numerous studies investigating microRNA (miRNA) expression patterns suggest they may be good prognostic markers. The primary aim of this study was to analyze the expression of selected miRNAs in the serum of MM patients who were later treated with bortezomib-based regimens, and to determine their potential to predict early mortality. The study was conducted in 70 prospectively recruited patients with newly diagnosed MM admitted to the Department of Hematology of the Copernicus Memorial Hospital, Lodz (Poland) between 2017 and 2021. Among them, 17 patients experienced death within 12 months of diagnosis. The expression of 31 selected miRNAs was determined using a miRCURY LNA miRNA Custom PCR Panel. The obtained clinical data included patient characteristics on diagnosis, treatment regimen, response to treatment, and follow-up. Differential expression analysis found two miRNAs to be significantly downregulated in the early mortality group: hsa-miR-328-3p (fold change-FC: 0.72, p = 0.0342) and hsa-miR-409-3p (FC: 0.49, p = 0.0357). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the early mortality rate. The final model consisted of hsa-miR-409-3p, hsa-miR-328-3p, age, and R-ISS 3. It yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.863 (95%CI: 0.761-0.965) with 88.2% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity. Further external validation of our model is needed to confirm its clinical value.

Increased survival disparities among children and adolescents & young adults with acute myeloid leukemia: A Dutch population-based study.

For many cancers, adolescents and young adults (AYAs) have a poorer prognosis than pediatric patients. Our study evaluates survival outcomes of children (0-17 years) and AYAs (18-39 years) diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in the Netherlands between 1990 and 2015 (N = 2058) utilizing the population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry, which includes information on therapy and site of primary treatment. Five- and 10-year relative (disease-specific) survival were estimated for all patients, children and AYAs. Multivariable analyses were performed using generalized linear models (excess mortality) and logistic regression (early mortality). AYAs with AML had a substantially lower 5- and 10-year relative survival than children (5-year: 43% vs 58%; 10-year: 37% vs 51%). The gap in 5-year relative survival was largest (nearly 20 percent-points) in 2010 to 2015, despite survival improvements over time across all ages. The multivariable-adjusted excess risk of dying was 60% higher in AYAs (95% CI: 37%-86%). Early mortality (death within 30 days of diagnosis) declined over time, and did not differ between children and AYAs. In conclusion, AYAs diagnosed with AML in the Netherlands had a worse prognosis than pediatric patients. The survival gap seemed most pronounced in recent years, suggesting that improvements in care resulting in better outcome for children have not led to equal benefits for AYAs.

Impact of sociodemographic factors on early mortality in acute promyelocytic leukemia in the United States: A time-trend analysis.

BACKGROUND: The survival of patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) has dramatically improved with the use of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) and arsenic trioxide (ATO). However, because of the complexity of the initial management, early mortality (EM) remains a major contributor to treatment failure. It is less known whether advances in treatment, urgent access to specialized care, and broad availability of ATRA/ATO have reduced EM in the last 2 decades. Furthermore, the influence of sociodemographic factors on the risk of EM also remains unclear. METHODS: This study used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to characterize the impact of sociodemographic factors on the rates of EM and overall survival (OS) in patients with APL diagnosed between 1992 and 2015. RESULTS: In all, 2224 cases were identified (895 who were younger than 40 years and 1329 who were 40 years old or older); 47.9% had a county-level median household income of $59,630 or higher, 49.0% belonged to counties where more than 31% of adults held at least a bachelor's degree, and 86.0% resided in urban areas. The rate of EM declined from 31.5% in 1992-1995 to 15.9% in 2012-2015 for all patients. It improved for patients younger than 40 years (27.4% in 1992-1995 vs 5.4% in 2012-2015; P < .001) and for patients 40 years old or older but not to the same extent (35.2% in 1992-1995 vs 22.2% in 2012-2015; P = .02). Importantly, improvements in EM were not seen among patients residing in rural areas, with the rate remaining higher than 20% in 2012-2015. The 3-year OS rate was 49.2% for patients with APL diagnosed in 1992-1995 and 76.4% for patients diagnosed in 2012-2015. CONCLUSIONS: These findings confirm consistent improvements in EM and OS for patients with APL and point to the challenge of further extending these improvements in EM rates to older patients and to those living in rural areas.

Online calculator to predict early mortality in patient with surgically treated recurrent lower-grade glioma.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and associated risk factors of recurrent lower-grade glioma [LGG] (WHO grades II and III) according to the 2016 updated WHO classification paradigm and finally develop a model for predicting early mortality (succumb within a year after reoperation) in recurrent LGG patients. METHODS: Data were obtained from consecutive patients who underwent surgery for primary LGG and reoperation for tumor recurrence. The end point "early mortality" was defined as death within 1 year after the reoperation. Predictive factors, including basic clinical characteristics and laboratory data, were retrospectively collected. RESULTS: A final nomogram was generated for surgically treated recurrent LGG. Factors that increased the probability of early mortality included older age (P = 0.042), D-dimer> 0.187 (P = 0.007), RDW > 13.4 (P = 0.048), PLR > 100.749 (P = 0.014), NLR > 1.815 (P = 0.047), 1p19q intact (P = 0.019), IDH1-R132H Mutant (P = 0.048), Fib≤2.80 (P = 0.018), lack of Stupp concurrent chemoradiotherapy (P = 0.041), and an initial symptom of epilepsy (P = 0.047). The calibration curve between the prediction from this model and the actual observations showed good agreement. CONCLUSION: A nomogram that predicts individualized probabilities of early mortality for surgically treated recurrent LGG patients could be a practical clinical tool for counseling patients regarding treatment decisions and optimizing therapeutic approaches. Free online software implementing this nomogram is provided at https://warrenwrl.shinyapps.io/RecurrenceGliomaEarlyM/.