Accuracy of p16 IHC in Classifying HPV-Driven OPSCC in Different Populations.

High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a defined etiopathogenetic factor in oropharyngeal carcinogenesis with a clear prognostic value. The P16 IHC (immunohistochemistry) is a widely accepted marker for HPV-driven carcinogenesis in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC); in the present paper, we discuss its reliability as a standalone marker in different populations. The literature suggests that rates of p16 IHC false positive results are inversely correlated with the prevalence of HPV-driven carcinogenesis in a population. We propose a formula that can calculate such a false positive rate while knowing the real prevalence of HPV-driven OPSCCs in a given population. As it has been demonstrated that p16 positive/HPV negative cases (i.e., false positives at p16 IHC) have the same prognosis as p16 negative OPSCC, we conclude that despite the valuable prognostic value of p16 IHC, relying only on a p16 IHC positive result to recommend treatment de-intensification could be risky. For this aim, confirmation with an HPV nucleic acid detection system, especially in areas with a low prevalence of HPV-related OPSCCs, should be pursued.

Low Prevalence of HPV Related Oropharyngeal Carcinogenesis in Northern Sardinia.

HPV infection is a clear etiopathogenetic factor in oropharyngeal carcinogenesis and is associated with a markedly better prognosis than in smoking- and alcohol-associated cases, as specified by AJCC classification. The aim of the present work is to evaluate the prevalence of HPV-induced OPSCC in an insular area in the Mediterranean and to assess the reliability of p16 IHC (immunohistochemistry) alone, as accepted by AJCC, in the diagnosis of HPV-driven carcinogenesis in such a setting. All patients with OPSCC consecutively managed by the referral center in North Sardinia of head and neck tumor board of AOU Sassari, were recruited. Diagnosis of HPV-related OPCSS was carried out combining p16 IHC and DNA testing on FFPE samples and compared with the results of p16 IHC alone. Roughly 14% (9/62) of cases were positive for HPV-DNA and p16 IHC. Three more cases showed overexpression of p16, which has a 100% sensitivity, but only 75% specificity as standalone method for diagnosing HPV-driven carcinogenesis. The Cohen's kappa coefficient of p16 IHC alone is 0.83 (excellent). However, if HPV-driven carcinogenesis diagnosed by p16 IHC alone was considered the criterion for treatment deintensification, 25% of p16 positive cases would have been wrongly submitted to deintensified treatment for tumors as aggressive as a p16 negative OPSCC. The currently accepted standard by AJCC (p16 IHC alone) harbors a high rate of false positive results, which appears risky for recommending treatment deintensification, and for this aim, in areas with a low prevalence of HPV-related OPSCC, it should be confirmed with HPV nucleic acid detection.