Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows.

We propose a method for forecasting global human migration flows. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to make probabilistic projections of the 39,800 bilateral migration flows among the 200 most populous countries. We generate out-of-sample forecasts for all bilateral flows for the 2015 to 2020 period, using models fitted to bilateral migration flows for five 5-y periods from 1990 to 1995 through 2010 to 2015. We find that the model produces well-calibrated out-of-sample forecasts of bilateral flows, as well as total country-level inflows, outflows, and net flows. The mean absolute error decreased by 61% using our method, compared to a leading model of international migration. Out-of-sample analysis indicated that simple methods for forecasting migration flows offered accurate projections of bilateral migration flows in the near term. Our method matched or improved on the out-of-sample performance using these simple deterministic alternatives, while also accurately assessing uncertainty. We integrate the migration flow forecasting model into a fully probabilistic population projection model to generate bilateral migration flow forecasts by age and sex for all flows from 2020 to 2025 through 2040 to 2045.

Stop, in the Name of COVID! Using Social Media Data to Estimate the Effects of COVID-19-Related Travel Restrictions on Migration.

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Organization for Migration has postulated that international migrant stocks fell short of their pre-pandemic projections by nearly 2 million as a result of travel restrictions. However, this decline is not testable with migration data from traditional sources. Key migration stakeholders have called for using data from alternative sources, including social media, to fill these gaps. Building on previous work using social media data to analyze migration responses to external shocks, we test the hypothesis that COVID-related travel restrictions reduced migrant stock relative to expected migration without such restrictions using estimates of migrants drawn from Facebook's advertising platform and dynamic panel models. We focus on four key origin countries in North and West Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Morocco, and Senegal) and on their 23 key destination countries. Between February and June 2020, we estimate that a destination country implementing a month-long total entry ban on arrivals from Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Morocco, or Senegal might have expected a 3.39% reduction in migrant stock from the restricted country compared with the counterfactual in which no travel restrictions were implemented. However, when broader societal disruptions of the pandemic are accounted for, we estimate that countries implementing travel restrictions might paradoxically have expected an increase in migrant stock. In this context, travel restrictions do not appear to have effectively curbed migration and could have resulted in outcomes opposite their intended effects.

Adequate housing as a social determinant of the health of international migrants and locals in Chile between 2013 and 2022.

BACKGROUND: Adequate housing is a fundamental right and a social determinant of health. It also represents a historically contentious topic in Latin America. Migratory flows to Chile have become increasingly precarious in the past few years, limiting opportunities for adequate housing, with potential repercussions on the health of international migrants and the general population. This study aims to analyse adequate housing as a social determinant of health among international migrants and locals between 2013 and 2022 in Chile. METHODS: Observational cross-sectional study based on repeated versions of the nationally representative Socioeconomic Characterization Survey in Chile. Adequate housing indicators adapted from the United Nations Housing Rights Programme guidelines were analyzed with relation to individual health, distinguishing between the local and international migrant populations. Logistic regression models were fitted for housing indicators with migration as the main independent variable and for short-term and long-term healthcare needs in locals and immigrants with housing as the main dependent variables. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic variables and considered the complex sample design. RESULTS: Descriptive findings indicated higher availability of services and infrastructure among international migrants, and a disadvantage for habitability, location, and affordability by quintiles compared to locals. Logistic regression models, adjusting for demographic variables, revealed significant associations between migration status and overcrowding (OR 6.14, 2022), poor housing materiality (OR 5.65, 2022) and proximity to healthcare centres (OR 1.4, 2022) compared to locals. Experiencing hazardous situations consistently predicted short-term healthcare needs in both migrants (OR = 1.4, 2022) and locals (OR = 2.8, 2022). Overcrowding predicted both long and short-term healthcare needs among locals across the years and long term needs among migrants in 2013 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: We found significant inequities in adequate housing between migrant populations and locals in Chile, and some inequities among both populations based on structural socioeconomic deprivation. Experiencing hazardous situations emerged as a social determinant of health among international migrants in 2022, potentially suggesting growing challenges related to social exclusion in urban areas. However, limitations such as exclusion criteria of the survey and sample sizes for data on the migrant population potentially suggest that housing challenges and their impact on health are underestimated.

Exploring acculturative stress and family dynamics in African immigrant students in the US: implications for mental health.

OBJECTIVES: African immigrants represent a rapidly growing immigrant group in the US, yet relatively little is known about influences on the health of this group. This is a particularly important oversight since adaptation to life in the United States can have deleterious effects on health due to the stress associated with immigrant and minority status as well as separation from family abroad. The present study explores how African immigrants experience acculturative stress - the stress-inducing elements of life as an immigrant - and the mental health implications of these experiences in light of home country values and conceptions of health. DESIGN: Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of sub-Saharan African immigrant students attending a metropolitan university in the northeastern United States (N = 26). Data were analyzed thematically using NVivo 12. RESULTS: African immigrant students first experience acculturative stress through schools and neighborhoods where they encounter othering processes, including discrimination and racism. Family responsibilities to loved ones in the US and Africa also represent a source of stress that contributes to feelings of isolation and depression experienced while managing college responsibilities. Since these emotional and mental states are not within the purview of how health is viewed in their home countries, many suffer and may not get the care they need to effectively manage their mental health. CONCLUSION: Findings emphasize shared experiences of navigating cultural dynamics, family pressures, and discrimination that contribute to the stress experienced by African immigrants. Findings also underscore the need for the development of culturally sensitive interventions in university settings so that African immigrant students can be upwardly mobile and healthy in the long-term.

The significance of local government in disaster management for international migrants: the case of Minoh City, Osaka Prefecture.

Disaster research predominantly focuses on citizens, not on migrants. This tilted spotlight needs to be readjusted, since many advanced countries around the world have become immigration countries, and safeguarding the lives of migrants at times of disaster has become an important and immediate policy issue. Hence, this research concentrates on disaster management to protect the lives of migrants in a disaster-prone and de facto immigration country. The particular country and event in question are Japan and the northern Osaka earthquake of June 2018. More than 100 migrants who lived near the earthquake's epicentre rushed to an evacuation shelter managed by the local municipal government of Minoh City, Osaka Prefecture. While non-governmental organisations attract more attention, this paper centres on a local government and demonstrates the key role that it can play in both bridging and building networks across different communities, and thus in safeguarding the lives of migrants at times of disaster.

A machine learning-based generalized approach for predicting unauthorized immigration flow considering dynamic border security nexus.

Unauthorized immigration has been a long-standing and contentious challenge for developed and developing countries. Numerous continually evolving push and pull factors across international borders, such as economy, employment, population density, unrest, corruption, and climate have driven this migration. Large-scale pandemics such as COVID-19, causing further instability in countries' financial well-being, can initiate or alter emigration flow from different countries. In light of such a complex confluence of factors, climate change, and demographic shifts in migrant communities, it is high time to shift toward machine learning-reinforced generalized approaches from the traditional parametric approaches based on migrant community-specific localized surveys. To our best knowledge, no literature has explored the nonparametric approach and developed a comprehensive database independent of localized surveys to analyze unauthorized migration. This article fills this gap by deploying nine nonparametric machine learning algorithms for predicting unauthorized immigration flow considering the dynamic border security nexus. This framework considers the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model as the null model. The proposed novel framework removes the dependency on localized survey-based studies and provides a more cost-effective, faster, and big data-friendly approach. This study finds the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree model as the best predictive model.

The impact of Covid-19 on demographic components in Spain, 2020-31: A scenario approach.

While considerable attention has been paid to the impact of Covid-19 on mortality and fertility, few studies have attempted to evaluate the pandemic's effect on international migration. We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on births, deaths, and international migration in Spain during 2020, comparing observed data with estimated values assuming there had been no pandemic. We also assess the consequences of three post-pandemic scenarios on the size and structure of the population to 2031. Results show that in 2020, excess mortality equalled 16.2 per cent and births were 6.5 per cent lower than expected. Immigration was the most affected component, at 36.0 per cent lower than expected, while emigration was reduced by 23.8 per cent. If net migration values recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, the size and structure of the population in 2031 will be barely affected. Conversely, if levels do not recover until 2025, there will be important changes to Spain's age structure.

Linking internal and international migration over the life course: A sequence analysis of individual migration trajectories in Europe.

Because internal and international migration are typically conceptualized and measured separately, empirical evidence on the links between these two forms of population movement remains partial. This paper takes a step towards integration by establishing how internal and international migration precede one another in various sequenced relationships from birth to age 50 in 20 European countries. We apply sequence and cluster analysis to full retrospective migration histories collected as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe in 2008-09 and 2017, for individuals born between 1950 and 1965. The results show that nearly all international migrants engage in internal mobility at some point in their lives. However, individual migration trajectories are delineated by the order of internal and international moves, the duration and timing of stays abroad, and the extent to which individuals engage in return international migration. Institutional and economic conditions shape the diversity of migration experiences.

The International Transmission of Local Economic Shocks Through Migrant Networks.

Using newly validated data on geographic migration networks, we study how labor demand shocks in the United States propagate across the border with Mexico. We show that the large exogenous decline in US employment brought about by the Great Recession affected demographic and economic outcomes in Mexican communities that were highly connected to the most affected markets in the US. In the Mexican locations with strong initial ties to the hardest hit US migrant destinations, return migration increased, emigration decreased, and remittance receipt declined. These changes significantly increased local employment and hours worked, but wages were unaffected. Investment in children's education also slowed in these communities. These findings document the effects in Mexico when potential migrants lose access to a strong US labor market, providing insight into the potential impacts of stricter US migration restrictions.

Remittances and Revenue in Latin America, 1990-2017.

Do international remittances increase government tax income in developing economies? This study investigates remittances' relationship to revenue within Latin American countries. The author builds on recent micro-level research by conceptualizing households with remittances as a transnational dispersed interest group in the political economy of taxation. Remittances increase recipients' wealth and decouple their well-being from domestic economic processes. Together, these effects suggest that remittances generate tax preferences that align more closely with promarket tax policies offered by the political right while decreasing the value of social protection expenditures. The author hypothesizes that these effects lead remittances to boost tax revenue when the right governs, but not the left. However, shifts to the left limit remittances' effect on revenue by decreasing income from direct taxes on wealth. Results from time-series error correction models, an event-study analysis, and twostage least squares models support these expectations. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12116-023-09390-3.

Doctors on the move 2: a qualitative study on the social integration of middle eastern physicians following their migration to Germany.

BACKGROUND: The integration of immigrating physicians has become a challenge for many societies and health care systems worldwide. Facilitating the integration process may benefit both the uptaking country and the immigrating physicians. Previous studies have approached this problem from a system integration perspective. The present study explores the degree of social integration of an exemplary group of Middle Eastern physicians following their migration to Germany from an individual perspective. METHODS: Based on social constructivist epistemology, a series of fifteen interviews and two focus groups with immigrated Middle Eastern physicians (n = 23, purposively sampled) were conducted between 2017 and 2020 in Germany. The audio recordings were transcribed, translated into English and analysed deductively based on Esser's model of social integration, consisting of four dimensions: acculturation, positioning, interaction and identification. RESULTS: The social integration of the participants showed a multifaceted picture. The early phase was characterized by disorientation and trial and error. Cultural differences were of major importance. Acculturation was facilitated by German language acquisition and increased over time, although some cultural difficulties remained. Professional positioning was facilitated by the need for physicians and a relatively low-hurdle relicensing procedure. Interaction and identification depended on the efforts of the individual physicians. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the individual social integration of Middle Eastern physicians in Germany. Language and cultural adaptation are identified as being of primary importance. Social integration can be facilitated through orientation programmes or cross-cultural training that benefits the uptaking countries as well as the immigrating physicians.

A comparative analysis of health status of international migrants and local population in Chile: a population-based, cross-sectional analysis from a social determinants of health perspective.

BACKGROUND: During recent decades intraregional migration has increased in Latin America. Chile became one of the main receiving countries and hosted diverse international migrant groups. Evidence have suggested a healthy migrant effect (HME) on health status, but it remains scarce, controversial and needs to be updated. This study performed a comprehensive analysis verifying the existence of HME and its association with social determinants of health (SDH). METHODS: We analyzed data from the Chilean National Socioeconomic Characterization Survey (CASEN, version 2017). Unadjusted prevalence of health status indicators such as negative self-perceived health, chronic morbidity, disability, and activity limitations were described in both international migrants and local population. Adjusted associations between these outcomes and sets of demographics, socioeconomic, access to healthcare, psychosocial and migration-related SDH were tested using multivariate logistic regression in each population. The HME for each health outcome was also tested using multivariate logistic regression and sequentially adjusting for each set of SDH (ref = Chilean). RESULTS: International migrants had lower unadjusted prevalence of all health indicators compared to Chileans. That is, unadjusted analysis revealed an apparent HME in all health outcomes. Age, unemployment, and health care system affiliation were associated with health outcomes in both populations. Psychosocial determinants were both risk and protective for the analysed health outcomes. After adjustment for each set of SDH, the immigrant health advantage was only significant for chronic morbidity. Being migrant was associated with 39% lower odds of having chronic diseases compared to locals (OR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.44-0.84; P = 0.0003). For all other outcomes, HME disappeared after adjusting by SDH, particularly unemployment, type of health system and psychosocial factors. CONCLUSIONS: Testing the HME in Chile revealed an advantage for chronic morbidities that remained significant after adjustment for SDH. This analysis shed light on health disparities between international migrants and local population in the Latin American region, with special relevance of unemployment, type of health system and psychosocial SDH. It also informed about differential exposures faced during migration process that could dissolve the HME over time. Evidence from this analytical approach is useful for informing health planning and intersectoral solutions from a SDH perspective.

Examining the association between international migration and colorectal cancer among multiple ancestry groups in the United States.

Objectives: Prior research has not adequately examined the relationship between international migration and colorectal cancer (CRC) by cultural regions in the US. The purpose of this exploratory study was to determine how annual CRC incidence varied with US annual international migrant inflow in ten different regions, corresponding to dominant ancestry group.Design: County-level international migrant inflow and dominant ancestry type were obtained from the American Community Survey, and age-adjusted CRC incidence was obtained from the National Cancer Institute. A linear regression model was tested for each ancestry region to assess the relationship between migrant inflow and CRC incidence.Results: Higher international migrant inflow was associated with lower CRC incidence among counties where the dominant ancestry group was African American (p = 0.0207), British (p = 0.0212), Hispanic (p = 0.0001), and Native American (p = 0.0056).Conclusions: These findings suggest that US residents in certain ancestry groups are at higher risk for CRC.

Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries.

We propose a method for estimating migration flows between all pairs of countries that allows for decomposition of migration into emigration, return, and transit components. Current state-of-the-art estimates of bilateral migration flows rely on the assumption that the number of global migrants is as small as possible. We relax this assumption, producing complete estimates of all between-country migration flows with genuine estimates of total global migration. We find that the total number of individuals migrating internationally has oscillated between 1.13 and 1.29% of the global population per 5-year period since 1990. Return migration and transit migration are big parts of total migration; roughly one of four migration events is a return to an individual's country of birth. In the most recent time period, we estimate particularly large return migration flows from the United States to Central and South America and from the Persian Gulf to south Asia.

Age variations and population over-coverage: Is low mortality among migrants merely a data artefact?

The migrant mortality advantage has been observed extensively, but its authenticity is debated. In particular, concerns persist that the advantage is an artefact of the data, generated by the problems of recording mobility among foreign-born populations. Here, we build on the intersection of two recent developments: the first showing substantial age variation in the advantage-a deep U-shaped advantage at peak migration ages-and the second showing high levels of population over-coverage, the principal source of data artefact, at the same ages. We use event history analysis of Sweden's population registers (2010-15) to test whether this over-coverage can explain age variation in the migrant mortality advantage. We document its U-shape in Sweden and, crucially, demonstrate that large mortality differentials persist after adjusting for estimated over-coverage. Our findings contribute to ongoing debate by demonstrating that the migrant mortality advantage is real and by ruling out one of its primary mechanisms.

One foot on shore: An analysis of global millionaires' demand for U.S. investor visas.

Each year, around 10,000 foreigners obtain a U.S. residence visa after investing half a million dollars or more. Who are the millionaires that acquire these visas and what motivates them to leave their home countries? To answer this question, I analyzed an original data set that combines U.S. visa statistics with data on global millionaire populations. The analysis produced three key findings. First, demand for investor visas was led by millionaires from countries that ranked lower in the global hierarchy of citizenship value. Second, most of the visas were acquired by Chinese millionaires, who recorded the world's highest application rate. Third, when the quality of democracy in a country declined, visa applications surged. These findings suggest that investor visas are used by elites in less developed countries to hedge against the risks associated with authoritarian rule. Such elites perceive investor visas as a foothold in a stable and democratic country that can provide an insurance policy or exit option.

Refugees, trade, and FDI.

Humanitarian policies aimed at welcoming forced migrants may yield unexpected economic dividends. This article focuses on the trade and investment links forged by refugees between their countries of resettlement and the origins they fled. We document how such immigrant-links differ in the case of refugees, focusing on why their opportunity sets might differ and the difficulties in establishing economic connections against a backdrop of civil conflict and political unrest. We conclude by discussing a range of policies aimed at engaging refugee diasporas to foster development at refugees' origins.

The Language of Immigration Coverage: The Arizona Republic and Media's Role in the Production of Social Illegality.

Recently, several mainstream media organizations have moved away from using "illegal immigrant" in their immigration coverage. While this shift in immigration coverage is positive, seemingly positive language may still be exclusionary, particularly if the content of stories remains the same. We investigate whether newspaper articles that describe immigrants as "illegal" are more negative in content than articles that present immigrants as "undocumented" by analyzing 1,616 newspaper articles and letters to the editor in The Arizona Republic between 2000 and 2016, a critical period of immigration legislative activity in Arizona. We find that The Arizona Republic inundated readers with negative news coverage and that this coverage is baked into the content of stories and transcends the use of either term, "illegal" or "undocumented." We then draw on letters to the editor and original interview data to consider how social forces outside of the media may influence coverage.

Sanitizing the national body: COVID-19 and the revival of Japan's "Closed Country" strategy.

Japan's handling of border control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic has become known as sakoku-approach. Sakoku literally means "closed country" and generally refers to a historic period when the Tokugawa Shogunate (1603-1868) kept Japan's borders shut because international contacts were feared to cause public upheaval and political instability. While these times have long passed, contemporary Japan, too, is known for its tight management of immigration avenues. In the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, most of these avenues were cut off, and despite much criticism, have remained largely inaccessible for two years now. In this paper, we build on concepts from authoritarian populism and the performance of crisis to analyze how and why Japan revived its isolationist strategy. We decipher the discursive framings that Prime Minister Abe applied to illustrate the disruptive influence that open borders would have on Japan's public health, social stability and by extension, on the national body itself. We argue that from the onset of the pandemic on, the ethnic others were portrayed as a risk mainly for two intertwined reasons: Firstly, Japan's pandemic management relies on self-constraint rather than rules and sanctions, and the ethnic others' compliance was not fully trusted. Secondly, this exclusionary strategy fed into populist discourses and was presumed to result in favorable support rates for the administration.

Early-Life Nutrition and Subsequent International Migration: A Prospective Study in Rural Guatemala.

BACKGROUND: It is generally accepted that migrants are favorably self-selected for labor market skills such as higher schooling and greater cognitive capacity, which are highly correlated with early-life nutrition. However, the influence of early-life nutrition on later-life migration is understudied. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine prospectively the association between height-for-age z scores (HAZ) at 24 mo and subsequent international migration in a cohort of 2392 participants born between 1962 and 1977 in 4 rural villages in eastern Guatemala. METHODS: Information on nutritional status and covariates was collected between 1969 and 1977 and migration status was determined as of 2017 (at ages 40-57 y). We used proportional hazards and logistic regression models to assess whether HAZ was associated with international migration, adjusting for early-life and adult characteristics. RESULTS: Between 1978 and 2017 there were 297 international migrants (12.4% of the original cohort) during 99,212 person-y of follow-up. In pooled models that were adjusted for early-life characteristics, a 1-SD increase in HAZ was associated with a 19% increase in the risk of international migration (HR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.38). Further adjustment for village characteristics did not alter the estimate substantively (HR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.37), while additional adjustment for schooling attainment attenuated the estimate somewhat (HR: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.33). In all models, effect sizes were stronger for men than for women. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that early-life nutrition is positively associated with subsequent international migration.