Biological invasions are a population-level rather than a species-level phenomenon.

Biological invasions pose a rapidly expanding threat to the persistence, functioning and service provisioning of ecosystems globally, and to socio-economic interests. The stages of successful invasions are driven by the same mechanism that underlies adaptive changes across species in general-via natural selection on intraspecific variation in traits that influence survival and reproductive performance (i.e., fitness). Surprisingly, however, the rapid progress in the field of invasion science has resulted in a predominance of species-level approaches (such as deny lists), often irrespective of natural selection theory, local adaptation and other population-level processes that govern successful invasions. To address these issues, we analyse non-native species dynamics at the population level by employing a database of European freshwater macroinvertebrate time series, to investigate spreading speed, abundance dynamics and impact assessments among populations. Our findings reveal substantial variability in spreading speed and abundance trends within and between macroinvertebrate species across biogeographic regions, indicating that levels of invasiveness and impact differ markedly. Discrepancies and inconsistencies among species-level risk screenings and real population-level data were also identified, highlighting the inherent challenges in accurately assessing population-level effects through species-level assessments. In recognition of the importance of population-level assessments, we urge a shift in invasive species management frameworks, which should account for the dynamics of different populations and their environmental context. Adopting an adaptive, region-specific and population-focused approach is imperative, considering the diverse ecological contexts and varying degrees of susceptibility. Such an approach could improve and refine risk assessments while promoting mechanistic understandings of risks and impacts, thereby enabling the development of more effective conservation and management strategies.

Rising Alkali-to-Acid Ratios in the Atmosphere May Correspond to Increased Aerosol Acidity.

Aerosol acidity (or pH) is one central parameter in determining the health, climate, and ecological effects of aerosols. While it is traditionally assumed that the long-term aerosol pH levels are determined by the relative abundances of atmospheric alkaline to acidic substances (referred to as RC/A hereinafter), we observed contrasting pH─RC/A trends at different sites globally, i.e., rising alkali-to-acid ratios in the atmosphere may unexpectedly lead to increased aerosol acidity. Here, we examined this apparently counterintuitive phenomenon using the multiphase buffer theory. We show that the aerosol water content (AWC) set a pH "baseline" as the peak buffer pH, while the RC/A and particle-phase chemical compositions determine the deviation of pH from this baseline within the buffer ranges. Therefore, contrasting long-term pH trends may emerge when RC/A increases while the AWC or nitrate fraction decreases, or vice versa. Our results provided a theoretical framework for a quantitative understanding of the response of aerosol pH to variations in SO2, NOx versus NH3, and dust emissions, offering broad applications in studies on aerosol pH and the associated environmental and health effects.

Overabundant deer and invasive plants drive widespread regeneration debt in eastern United States national parks.

Advanced regeneration, in the form of tree seedlings and saplings, is critical for ensuring the long-term viability and resilience of forest ecosystems in the eastern United States. Lack of regeneration and/or compositional mismatch between regeneration and canopy layers, called regeneration debt, can lead to shifts in forest composition, structure, and, in extreme cases, forest loss. In this study, we examined status and trends in regeneration across 39 national parks from Virginia to Maine, spanning 12 years to apply the regeneration debt concept. We further refined the concept by adding new metrics and classifying results into easily interpreted categories adapted from the literature: imminent failure, probable failure, insecure, and secure. We then used model selection to determine the potential drivers most influencing patterns of regeneration debt. Status and trends indicated widespread regeneration debt in eastern national parks, with 27 of 39 parks classified as imminent or probable failure. Deer browse impact was consistently the strongest predictor of regeneration abundance. The most pervasive component of regeneration debt observed across parks was a sapling bottleneck, characterized by critically low sapling density of native canopy species and significant declines in native canopy sapling basal area or density for most parks. Regeneration mismatches also threaten forest resilience in many parks, where native canopy seedlings and saplings were outnumbered by native subcanopy species, particularly species that are less palatable deer browse. The devastating impact of emerald ash borer eliminating ash as a native canopy tree also drove regeneration mismatches in many parks that contain abundant ash regeneration, demonstrating the vulnerability of forests that lack diverse understories to invasive pests and pathogens. These findings underscore the critical importance of an integrated forest management approach that promotes an abundant and diverse regeneration layer. In most cases, this can only be achieved through long-term (i.e., multidecadal) management of white-tailed deer and invasive plants. Small-scale disturbances that increase structural complexity may also promote regeneration where stress from deer and invasive plants is minimal. Without immediate and sustained management intervention, the forest loss we are already observing may become a widespread pattern in eastern national parks and the broader region.

Have attitudes toward epilepsy improved in Germany over the last 50 years?

OBJECTIVE: In Germany, six previous representative surveys on attitudes toward epilepsy (AE) have been conducted between 1967 and 2008 using the four original Caveness questions (CQs) from 1949 to 1980. The aims of this study were (1) to investigate changes in AE over the time span of 50 years, including the current survey in 2018 (2) to investigate the first-time emotional reactions measured with the Scales of Attitudes toward People with Epilepsy (SAPE) (3) to identify predictors of AE. METHODS: A representative face-to-face survey with CQ, in addition with the SAPE scales of Social Distance, Stereotypes, Personal Concerns, and Emotional Reactions was carried out in Germany in 2018. One thousand and twenty-six persons who ever had heard of epilepsy participated. Respondents who answered "don't know" in the CQs were subsequently asked to answer only yes/no. The analysis of trends from 1967 to 2018 was based on the pooled data of the surveys. The four CQs in the 2018 survey were included in the SAPE item pool and an exploratory principal axis factor analysis was performed. General linear models were performed to identify predictors. RESULTS: For all four CQs, the trend of improved AE was significant over the past 50 years. In the 2018 survey, excluding the "don't know" answer option increased the proportion of negative responses for contact of one's own children with a person with epilepsy (PWE) from 6.9% to 11.4% and for the marriage of one's own children with a PWE from 13.9% to 23.8%. When encountering a PWE, 30.1% would feel insecure or uncomfortable and nearly 60% were concerned that the PWE might be injured in case of a seizure. Knowing what to do in case of a seizure, knowing that seizures can be treated successfully, personal contact with a PWE along with younger age, and higher education were found to be the strongest predictors for positive AE identified by multivariate analyses. Exploratory principal axis factor analysis revealed that three of the four CQs items loaded > 0.30 at the factors of Social Distance and Stereotypes of SAPE but none on the factors measuring emotional reactions. SIGNIFICANCE: AE measured by CQs have markedly improved in Germany over the last 50 years. Germany is to our knowledge the only country with such a long-term trend investigation in AE. Negative AE may be underestimated by survey questions with "don't know" answer option. Emotional aspects of attitudes are underexposed resp. neglected in the CQs, which are used worldwide for measuring AE. Additional tools like SAPE can close this gap. The identified predictors may help to derive interventions against negative AE.

Long-term dynamics and drivers of particulate phosphorus concentration in eutrophic lake Chaohu, China.

Particulate phosphorus (PP) plays an important biological role in the eutrophication process, and is thus an important water quality parameter for assessing climatic change and anthropogenic activity factors that affect aquatic ecosystems. Here, we used 20-year Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data to explore the patterns and trends of PP concentration (CPP) in eutrophic Lake Chaohu based on a new empirical model. The validation results indicated that the developed model performed satisfactorily in estimating CPP, with a mean absolute percentage error of 31.89% and root mean square error of 0.022 mg/L. Long-term MODIS observations (2000-2019) revealed that the CPP of Lake Chaohu has experienced an overall increasing trend and distinct spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The driving factor analysis revealed that the chemical fertilizer consumption, municipal wastewater, industrial sewage, precipitation, and air temperature were the five potential driving factors and collectively explained more than 81% of the long-term variation in CPP. This study provides the long-term datasets of CPP in inland waters and new insights for future water eutrophication control and restoration efforts.

Trends in Educational Assortative Marriage in China Over the Past Century.

In the past century, China has undergone rapid and dramatic social and economic changes. This article describes trends in educational assortative marriages of cohorts born in 1906-1995 in China. We measure educational attainment relatively as an individual's percentile position in the education distribution of a 10-year birth cohort and study trends using comparable, easy-to-interpret couple rank-rank correlations. We analyze microdata samples from the 1982, 1990, 2000, and 2010 China censuses and the 2015 1% intercensus survey and nationally representative surveys between 1996 and 2018. We find a large and steady increase in educational assortative marriage over the past century, except among those born in 1946-1965, whose schooling and marriage were impacted by the Cultural Revolution. Our study highlights the critical roles of social, political, and economic contexts in shaping trends in educational assortative marriage.

44-year temporal trends and causes of maternal mortality at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, LUTH, Lagos, Nigeria (1976-2019).

Background: Nigeria has committed to global initiatives aimed at improving maternal and child health. Institutional audit of maternal mortality over a long period can provide useful information on the trends in maternal death and the impact of interventions. Aim: To evaluate the trends in annual deliveries, maternal mortality ratio and causes of maternal death at a tertiary institution in Nigeria over a period of 44 years (1976-2019). Materials and Methods: We conducted a temporal trend analysis of annual births, maternal deaths, maternal mortality ratio (MMR), and ranking of causes of maternal deaths at a Teaching Hospital, in Southwest Nigeria using available data from 1976 to 2019. Overall and segmental annual percent change (APC) of the observed trends were conducted using Joinpoint version 4.5.0.1 software. Results: Over the 44-year study period, 1323 maternal deaths occurred at approximately 30 maternal deaths per annum. There was a four-fold increase in MMR from 881/100,000 total births in 1976 to 3389.8/100,000 total births in 2019, at an average increase of 3.1% per annum. (APC: 3.1%; P value < 0.001). The leading causes of maternal mortality were hypertension, sepsis, haemorrhage, and abortion, which together contributed to more than 70% of maternal deaths. All the leading causes of maternal deaths except abortion had constant ranking during the study period. Conclusion: The four-fold increase in MMR at our hospital from 1976-2019 is worrying and may suggest that previous efforts at reducing maternal mortality in our institution did not lead to significant improvement toward the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG3). The hospital increasingly managed complex cases especially the unbooked patients who were referred to the hospital as a last resort.

Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies.

Although climate-driven phenological shifts have been documented for many taxa across the globe, we still lack knowledge of the consequences they have on populations. Here, we used a comprehensive database comprising 553 populations of 51 species of north-western Mediterranean butterflies to investigate the relationship between phenology and population trends in a 26-year period. Phenological trends and sensitivity to climate, along with various species traits, were used to predict abundance trends. Key ecological traits accounted for a general decline of more than half of the species, most of which, surprisingly, did not change their phenology under a climate warming scenario. However, this was related to the regional cooling in a short temporal window that includes late winter and early spring, during which most species concentrate their development. Finally, we demonstrate that phenological sensitivity-but not phenological trends-predicted population trends, and argue that species that best adjust their phenology to inter-annual climate variability are more likely to maintain a synchronization with trophic resources, thereby mitigating possible negative effects of climate change. Our results reflect the importance of assessing not only species' trends over time but also species' abilities to respond to a changing climate based on their sensitivity to temperature.

Shifting stoichiometry: Long-term trends in stream-dissolved organic matter reveal altered C:N ratios due to history of atmospheric acid deposition.

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) are important energy and nutrient sources for aquatic ecosystems. In many northern temperate, freshwater systems DOC has increased in the past 50 years. Less is known about how changes in DOC may vary across latitudes, and whether changes in DON track those of DOC. Here, we present long-term DOC and DON data from 74 streams distributed across seven sites in biomes ranging from the tropics to northern boreal forests with varying histories of atmospheric acid deposition. For each stream, we examined the temporal trends of DOC and DON concentrations and DOC:DON molar ratios. While some sites displayed consistent positive or negative trends in stream DOC and DON concentrations, changes in direction or magnitude were inconsistent at regional or local scales. DON trends did not always track those of DOC, though DOC:DON ratios increased over time for ~30% of streams. Our results indicate that the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool is experiencing fundamental changes due to the recovery from atmospheric acid deposition. Changes in DOC:DON stoichiometry point to a shifting energy-nutrient balance in many aquatic ecosystems. Sustained changes in the character of DOM can have major implications for stream metabolism, biogeochemical processes, food webs, and drinking water quality (including disinfection by-products). Understanding regional and global variation in DOC and DON concentrations is important for developing realistic models and watershed management protocols to effectively target mitigation efforts aimed at bringing DOM flux and nutrient enrichment under control.

Long-term abundance trends of insect taxa are only weakly correlated.

Changes in the abundances of animals, such as with the ongoing concern about insect declines, are often assumed to be general across taxa. However, this assumption is largely untested. Here, we used a database of assemblage-wide long-term insect and arachnid monitoring to compare abundance trends among co-occurring pairs of taxa. We show that 60% of co-occurring taxa qualitatively showed long-term trends in the same direction-either both increasing or both decreasing. However, in terms of magnitude, temporal trends were only weakly correlated (mean freshwater r = 0.05 (±0.03), mean terrestrial r = 0.12 (±0.09)). The strongest correlation was between trends of beetles and those of moths/butterflies (r = 0.26). Overall, even though there is some support for directional similarity in temporal trends, we find that changes in the abundance of one taxon provide little information on the changes of other taxa. No clear candidate for umbrella or indicator taxa emerged from our analysis. We conclude that obtaining a better picture of changes in insect abundances will require monitoring of multiple taxa, which remains uncommon, especially in the terrestrial realm.

A Survivorship-Period-Cohort Model for Cancer Survival: Application to Liver Cancer in Taiwan, 1997-2016.

Monitoring survival in cancer is a common concern for patients, physicians, and public health researchers. The traditional cohort approach for monitoring cancer prognosis has a timeliness problem. In this paper, we propose a survivorship-period-cohort (SPC) model for examining the effects of survivorship, period, and year-of-diagnosis cohort on cancer prognosis and for predicting future trends in cancer survival. We used the developed SPC model to evaluate the relative survival (RS) of patients with liver cancer in Taiwan (diagnosed from 1997 to 2016) and to predict future trends in RS by imputing incomplete follow-up data for recently diagnosed patient cohorts. We used cross-validation to select the extrapolation method and bootstrapping to estimate the 95% confidence interval for RS. We found that 5-year cumulative RS increased for both men and women with liver cancer diagnosed after 2003. For patients diagnosed before 2010, the 5-year cumulative RS rate for men was lower than that for women; thereafter, the rates were better for men than for women. The SPC model can help elucidate the effects of survivorship, period, and year-of-diagnosis cohort effects on cancer prognosis. Moreover, the SPC model can be used to monitor cancer prognosis in real time and predict future trends; thus, we recommend its use.

Century-long records reveal shifting challenges to seagrass recovery.

Global losses over the 20th century placed seagrass ecosystems among the most threatened ecosystems in the world, with eutrophication, and associated deterioration of the submarine light environment identified as the main driver. Growing appreciation of the ecological and societal benefits of healthy seagrass meadows has stimulated efforts to protect and restore them, largely focused on reducing nutrient input to coastal waters. Here we analyze a unique data set spanning 135 years on eelgrass (Zostera marina), the dominant seagrass of the northern hemisphere. We show that meadows in the Western Baltic Sea exhibited major declines relative to historic (1890-1910) reference due to the wasting disease in the 1930s followed by eutrophication peaking in the 1980s, but have only shown modest improvement despite major eutrophication mitigation, halving nitrogen input since the 1980s. Across the past century, we identified generally shallower colonization depths of eelgrass for a given submarine light penetration and, hence, increased apparent light requirements. This suggests that eelgrass recovery is limited by additional stressors. Our study indicates that bottom trawling and intense recent warming (0.5°C per decade, 1985-2018), which impact on deeper and shallower meadows, respectively, suppress eelgrass from fully recovering from eutrophication. Warming is most severe in shallow turbid waters, while clear-water areas offer eelgrass refugia from warming in deeper, cooler waters; but trawling can prevent eelgrass from reaching these refugia. Efforts to reduce nutrient input and thereby improve water clarity have been instrumental in avoiding a catastrophic loss of eelgrass ecosystems. However, local-scale future management must, in addition, reduce bottom trawling to facilitate eelgrass reaching deeper, cooler refugia, and increase resilience toward realized and further warming. Warming needs to be limited by meeting global climate change mitigation goals.

Fluctuating selection driven by global and local climatic conditions leads to stasis in breeding time in a migratory bird.

The origin of natural selection is linked to environmental heterogeneity, which influences variation in relative fitness among phenotypes. However, individuals in wild populations are exposed to a plethora of biotic and abiotic environmental factors. Surprisingly, the relative influence of multiple environmental conditions on the relative fitness of phenotypes has rarely been tested in wild populations. Identifying the main selection agent(s) is crucial when the target phenotype is tightly linked to reproduction and when temporal variation in selection is expected to affect evolutionary responses. By using individual-based data from a 29-year study of a short-lived migratory songbird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), we studied the relative influence of 28 temperature- and precipitation-based factors at local and global scales on selection on breeding time (egg laying) at the phenotypic level. Selection, estimated using the number of recruits as a proxy for fitness, penalized late breeders. Minimum temperatures in April and May were the environmental drivers that best explained selection on laying date. In particular, there was negative directional selection on laying date mediated by minimum temperature in April, being strongest in cold years. In addition, nonlinear selection on laying date was influenced by minimum temperatures in May, with selection on laying date changing from null to negative as the breeding season progressed. The intensity of selection on late breeders increased when minimum temperatures in May were highest. Our results illustrate the complex influence of environmental factors on selection on laying date in wild bird populations. Despite minimum temperature in April being the only variable that changed over time, its increase did not induce a shift in laying date in the population. In this songbird population, stabilizing selection has led to a three-decade stasis in breeding time. We suggest that variation in the effects of multiple climatic variables on selection may constrain phenotypic change.

Long-term trends indicate that invasive plants are pervasive and increasing in eastern national parks.

While invasive plant distributions are relatively well known in the eastern United States, temporal changes in species distributions and interactions among species have received little attention. Managers are therefore left to make management decisions without knowing which species pose the greatest threats based on their ability to spread, persist and outcompete other invasive species. To fill this gap, we used the U.S. National Park Service's Inventory and Monitoring Program data collected from over 1,400 permanent forest plots spanning 12 yr and covering 39 eastern national parks to analyze invasive plant trends. We analyzed trends in abundance at multiple scales, including plot frequency, quadrat frequency, and average quadrat cover. We examined trends overall, by functional group, and by species. We detected considerably more increasing than decreasing trends in invasive plant abundance. In fact, 80% of the parks in our study had at least one significant increasing trend in invasive abundance over time. Where detected, significant negative trends tended to be herbaceous or graminoid species. However, these declines were often countered by roughly equivalent increases in invasive shrubs over the same time period, and we only detected overall declines in invasive abundance in two parks in our study. Present in over 30% of plots and responsible for the steepest and greatest number of significant increases, Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum) was the most aggressive invader in our study and is a high management priority. Invasive shrubs, especially Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii), Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica), multiflora rose (Rosa multiflora), and wineberry (Rubus phoenicolasius), also increased across multiple parks, and sometimes at the expense of Japanese stiltgrass. Given the added risks to human health from tick-borne diseases, invasive shrubs are a high management priority. While these findings provide critical information to managers for species prioritization, they also demonstrate the incredible management challenge that invasive plants pose in protected areas, particularly since we documented few overall declines in invasive abundance. As parks work to overcome deferred maintenance of infrastructure, our findings suggest that deferred management of natural resources, particularly invasive species, requires similar attention and long-term commitment to reverse these widespread increasing invasive trends.

Causes and consequences of decreasing atmospheric organic aerosol in the United States.

Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) exacerbates respiratory and cardiovascular conditions and is a leading source of premature mortality globally. Organic aerosol contributes a significant fraction of PM in the United States. Here, using surface observations between 1990 and 2012, we show that organic carbon has declined dramatically across the entire United States by 25-50%; accounting for more than 30% of the US-wide decline in PM. The decline is in contrast with the increasing organic aerosol due to wildfires and no clear trend in biogenic emissions. By developing a carbonaceous emissions database for the United States, we show that at least two-thirds of the decline in organic aerosol can be explained by changes in anthropogenic emissions, primarily from vehicle emissions and residential fuel burning. We estimate that the decrease in anthropogenic organic aerosol is responsible for averting 180,000 (117,000-389,000) premature deaths between 1990 and 2012. The unexpected decrease in organic aerosol, likely a consequence of the implementation of Clean Air Act Amendments, results in 84,000 (30,000-164,000) more lives saved than anticipated by the EPA between 2000 and 2010.

Gradual replacement of wild bees by honeybees in flowers of the Mediterranean Basin over the last 50 years.

Evidence for pollinator declines largely originates from mid-latitude regions in North America and Europe. Geographical heterogeneity in pollinator trends combined with geographical biases in pollinator studies can produce distorted extrapolations and limit understanding of pollinator responses to environmental changes. In contrast with the declines experienced in some well-investigated European and North American regions, honeybees seem to have increased recently in some areas of the Mediterranean Basin. Because honeybees can have negative impacts on wild bees, it was hypothesized that a biome-wide alteration in bee pollinator assemblages may be underway in the Mediterranean Basin involving a reduction in the relative number of wild bees. This hypothesis was tested using published quantitative data on bee pollinators of wild and cultivated plants from studies conducted between 1963 and 2017 in 13 countries from the European, African and Asian shores of the Mediterranean Sea. The density of honeybee colonies increased exponentially and wild bees were gradually replaced by honeybees in flowers of wild and cultivated plants. The proportion of wild bees at flowers was four times greater than that of honeybees at the beginning of the period, the proportions of both groups becoming roughly similar 50 years later. The Mediterranean Basin is a world biodiversity hotspot for wild bees and wild bee-pollinated plants, and the ubiquitous rise of honeybees to dominance as pollinators could in the long run undermine the diversity of plants and wild bees in the region.

Seasonal variability and long-term trends of the surface and subsurface circulation features in the Equatorial Indian Ocean.

Herein, we have examined the seasonal variability and long-term trends in the recent 35 years (1980-2014) of the wind stresses and circulation features in the Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) using reanalysis and observed data. Annual mean flow of the EIO is eastward along the equator, with the strong current in the upper 80 m and weak below that. The prominent surface currents in the EIO are the eastward Wyrtki Jets (WJs) occurring during spring (April-May) and fall (October-November), with active flows within 2° of the equator between 60° E and 90° E. The fall WJs are stronger than the spring WJs. The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC), the prominent subsurface eastward flow with core within 70-150 m, occurs twice annually-February-April and August-October-with the well-developed flow in March-April. Long-term trends reveal that during 1980-2014, the annual mean eastward surface current in the upper 75 m has increased, primarily due to the rise of WJs forced by the westerly wind stresses during November-December. But the subsurface eastward current (below 75 m) has decreased due to the weakening of winter North Equatorial Current (NEC) and EUC during February-April. Consolidation of the westerly wind stresses during November-April results in the strengthening of the wind-driven surface WJs and weakening of the pressure-driven EUCs during 1980-2014. Intensification of WJs are the direct effects of wind forcing. However, strengthening of westerly stresses also results in weakening of the surface westward NEC and thereby restricts the strong eastward gradient of SSH which is required to build up the essential eastward pressure gradient for the EUC. Since WJs and EUCs modulate the hydrographic structure of the eastern part of the EIO, any change in the strength of these flows, in turn, will influence mostly this oceanic region and thereby the local as well as global climate.

Educational expansion and educational wage premiums of young male employees: A long-term analysis for West Germany 1976-2010.

For decades, Western societies have experienced educational expansion accompanied by an upgrading of skills. The literature provides competing hypotheses on the consequences for educational wage returns - among them are the positional value theory, routine-biased technological change, and the social closure theory. We test these theoretical perspectives empirically on young, male full-time workers in West Germany between 1976 and 2010 in two ideal-type occupational segments using 2.34 million administrative earnings records (Sample of Integrated Labor Market Biographies, SIAB). Our findings show no credential inflation across all levels of education. Instead, the picture in both segments - negative effects of educational expansion on the returns to medium- but not high-level skills - confirms the predictions of routine-biased technological change. Wage premiums for medium-skilled workers differ between segments: the premiums worsen over time in the general segment whereas social-closure mechanisms seem to weaken this negative trend for vocational graduates in the specific segment.

Decoupled trophic responses to long-term recovery from acidification and associated browning in lakes.

Increases in the concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) have been documented in many inland waters in recent decades, a process known as "browning". Previous studies have often used space-for-time substitution to examine the direct consequences of increased DOM on lake ecosystems. However, browning often occurs concomitant with other ecologically important water chemistry changes that may interact with or overwhelm any potential ecological response to browning itself. Here we examine a long-term (~20 year) dataset of 28 lakes in the Adirondack Park, New York, USA, that have undergone strong browning in response to recovery from acidification. With these data, we explored how primary producer and zooplankton consumer populations changed during this time and what physical and chemical changes best predicted these long-term ecosystem changes. Our results indicate that changes in primary producers are likely driven by reduced water clarity due to browning, independent of changes in nutrients, counter to previously hypothesized primary producer response to browning. In contrast, declines in calcium concomitant with browning play an important role in driving long-term declines in zooplankton biomass. Our results indicate that responses to browning at different trophic levels are decoupled from one another. Concomitant chemical changes have important implications for our understanding of the response of aquatic ecosystems to browning.

Divergent long-term trends and interannual variation in ecosystem resource use efficiencies of a southern boreal old black spruce forest 1999-2017.

Long-term trends in ecosystem resource use efficiencies (RUEs) and their controlling factors are key pieces of information for understanding how an ecosystem responds to climate change. We used continuous eddy covariance and microclimate data over the period 1999-2017 from a 120-year-old black spruce stand in central Saskatchewan, Canada, to assess interannual variability, long-term trends, and key controlling factors of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and the RUEs of carbon (CUE = net primary production [NPP]/GEP), light (LUE = GEP/absorbed photosynthetic radiation [APAR]), and water (WUE = GEP/evapotranspiration [E]). At this site, annual GEP has shown an increasing trend over the 19 years (p < 0.01), which may be attributed to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Interannual variability in GEP, aside from its increasing trend, was most strongly related to spring temperatures. Associated with the significant increase in annual GEP were relatively small changes in NPP, APAR, and E, so that annual CUE showed a decreasing trend and annual LUE and WUE showed increasing trends over the 19 years. The long-term trends in the RUEs were related to the increasing CO2 concentration. Further analysis of detrended RUEs showed that their interannual variation was impacted most strongly by air temperature. Two-factor linear models combining CO2 concentration and air temperature performed well (R2 ~0.60) in simulating annual RUEs. LUE and WUE were positively correlated both annually and seasonally, while LUE and CUE were mostly negatively correlated. Our results showed divergent long-term trends among CUE, LUE, and WUE and highlighted the need to account for the combined effects of climatic controls and the 'CO2 fertilization effect' on long-term variations in RUEs. Since most RUE-based models rely primarily on one resource limitation, the observed patterns of relative change among the three RUEs may have important implications for RUE-based modeling of C fluxes.