Comparison of NEWS2 and PSI as mortality predictors in patients with community acquired pneumonia.

In the West, National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is commonly applied to predict the severity of illness using only bedside variables unlike the extensive Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI). The objective of this study was to compare these scores as mortality predictors in patients admitted with community acquired pneumonia (CAP). This cross-sectional study was conducted in Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Karachi, Pakistan, for six months in 2020 on 116 patients presenting with CAP. Cases of aspiration pneumonia, hospital acquired pneumonia, pulmonary tuberculosis, pulmonary embolism, and pulmonary oedema were excluded. In-hospital mortality was taken as the outcome of this study. The mean age of the participants was 46.9±20.5 years. The in-hospital mortalities were 45(38.8%). NEWS2 was 97.8% sensitive but only 15.5% specific in predicting the outcome, whereas PSI was less sensitive (68.9%) but more specific (50.7%), which showed that in comparison with PSI, NEWS2 is a more sensitive mortality predicting score among hospitalised CAP patients.

Point-of-care pancreatic stone protein measurement in critically ill COVID-19 patients.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) is a novel biomarker that is reported to be increased in pneumonia and acute conditions. The primary aim of this study was to prospectively study plasma levels of PSP in a COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) population to determine how well PSP performed as a marker of mortality in comparison to other plasma biomarkers, such as C reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT). METHODS: We collected clinical data and blood samples from COVID-19 ICU patients at the time of admission (T0), 72 h later (T1), five days later (T2), and finally, seven days later. The PSP plasma level was measured with a point-of-care system; PCT and CRP levels were measured simultaneously with laboratory tests. The inclusion criteria were being a critical COVID-19 ICU patient requiring ventilatory mechanical assistance. RESULTS: We enrolled 21 patients and evaluated 80 blood samples; we found an increase in PSP plasma levels according to mixed model analysis over time (p < 0.001), with higher levels found in the nonsurvivor population (p < 0.001). Plasma PSP levels achieved a statistically significant result in terms of the AUROC, with a value higher than 0.7 at T0, T1, T2, and T3. The overall AUROC of PSP was 0.8271 (CI (0.73-0.93), p < 0.001). These results were not observed for CRP and PCT. CONCLUSION: These first results suggest the potential advantages of monitoring PSP plasma levels through point-of-care technology, which could be useful in the absence of a specific COVID-19 biomarker. Additional data are needed to confirm these results.

The Prognostic Role of Early Postoperative Troponin I in Lung Transplantation-A Retrospective 7-Year Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Postoperative cardiac troponin I concentration is predictive of worsened outcomes in cardiac surgery. Lung transplantation (LT) surgery shares common features with cardiac surgery, but postoperative troponin has yet to be investigated. The authors aimed to evaluate the association between early postoperative troponin concentration and the 1-year mortality after transplantation. DESIGN: A retrospective, observational, single-center study. SETTING: At a tertiary care, university hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who underwent lung transplantation from January 2011 to December 2017 INTERVENTIONS: For each patient, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative data were collected, as well as the troponin I measurement at the moment of postoperative intensive care unit admission. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Two hundred twenty LT procedures were analyzed. Troponin I was elevated in all LT patients, with a median of 3.82 ng/mL-1 (2-6.42) ng/mL-1 significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors with 5.39 (2.88-7.44) v 3.50 ng/mL (1.74-5.76), p = 0.005. In the multivariate analysis, the authors found that only the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II score (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.001; 1.05]; p = 0.007) and the need to maintain extracorporeal life support at the end of surgery (HR 2.54; 95% CI [1.36; 4.73]; p = 0.003) were independently associated with the 1-year mortality. The multiple linear regression model found that troponin levels were associated with the need for extracorporeal life support (ECLS) (p = 0.014), the amount of transfused packed red blood cells (p = 0.008), and bilateral LT (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Early postoperative troponin serum levels were not independently associated with 1-year mortality. Early postoperative troponin I levels were correlated to bilateral LT, the need for ECLS, and intraoperative blood transfusion.

New prognostic factor for hepatitis B virus-related decompensated cirrhosis: Ratio of monocytes to HDL-cholesterol.

AIM: Hepatitis B virus-related decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DeCi) has a high mortality rate, and it remains a challenge to predict its outcomes in clinical practice. We aimed to determine the association between monocyte-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio (MHR) and short-term prognosis in HBV-DeCi patients. METHODS: A total of 145 HBV-DeCi patients were enrolled. A multivariate analysis was performed to identify predictors of mortality. The findings were validated by a receiver operating characteristic analysis using the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: A total of 20 (13.8%) patients had died 30 days after admission. MHR was markedly increased in the non-survivors compared with the survivors. In the multivariate analysis, MHR was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality, with a significant predictive value (AUC = 0.825; sensitivity, 90.0%; specificity, 62.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated MHR is associated with increased mortality rate in HBV-DeCi patients.

Subcutaneous emphysema, pneumomediastinum and pneumothorax in COVID-19 pneumonia-independent prognostic factors.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has created a substantial disease burden and morbidity. However, the development of subcutaneous emphysema, pneumomediastinum, and pneumothorax have been of rare occurrence and their significance in mortality has not been studied. In a retrospective single-institution observational study at a tertiary care centre in the northern part of India, we evaluated the occurrence of these complications and their relationship with mortality from 1 June 2020 to 30 November 2020. All coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients developing subcutaneous emphysema, pneumomediastinum, and pneumothorax were included. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation-induced complications were excluded. Measured endpoints were either discharge to home or death. There were 3145 COVID-19 patients admitted during the study period. Altogether, 38 patients developed one of these complications or in combination. There were 33 male and 5 female patients with an age range from 23 to 95 years, mean 57 ± 12.7. 36 of 38 patients developed these complications while on the ventilator and required chest drain insertions as a part of management. Two patients developed these complications while breathing spontaneously. The incidence of these complications among ventilated patients was 22.9% (36/157). 32 of 38 died giving a mortality of 84.21%. The average time from the development of these complications to death was 8.4 days (range 2-27 days). We conclude that lung changes in COVID-19 patients make them prone to the development of air leaks. Subcutaneous emphysema, pneumomediastinum, and pneumothorax were more common in ventilated patients but were also observed in spontaneously breathing patients. These complications were associated with significantly high mortality in COVID-19 patients (p-value = 0.0002 by Chi-square test).

Application of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio in predicting mortality risk in adult patients with septic shock: A retrospective cohort study conducted at a single center.

Background: Sepsis is a life-threatening condition characterized by an aberrant host response to infection, resulting in multi-organ dysfunction. The application of currently available prognostic indicators for sepsis in primary hospitals is challenging. In this retrospective study, we established a novel index, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (NLMR), based on routine blood examination upon admission, and assessed its prognostic value for early mortality risk in adult patients with septic shock. Methods: This study included clinical data from adult patients with septic shock who were admitted to the hospital between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2022. Training and validation sets were constructed, and patients were categorized into "survival" and "death" groups based on their survival status within the 28-day hospitalization period. Baseline data, including demographic characteristics and comorbidities, and laboratory results, such as complete blood count parameters, were collected for analysis. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were documented.The NLMR was determined through the utilization of multivariate binary logistic regression analysis, leading to the development of a risk model aimed at predicting early mortality in adult patients suffering from septic shock. Results: Overall, 112 adult patients with septic shock were enrolled in this study, with 84 and 28 patients in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariate binary logistic analysis revealed that the neutrophil, lymphocyte, and monocyte counts independently contributed to the mortality risk (odds ratios = 1.22, 0.08, and 0.16, respectively). The NLMR demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.83 for internal validation in the training set and 0.97 for external validation in the validation set. Both overall model quality values were significantly high at 0.74 and 0.91, respectively (P < 0.05). NLMR exhibited a higher ROC-AUC value of 0.88 than quick SOFA (ROC-AUC = 0.71), SOFA (ROC-AUC = 0.83), and APACHE II (ROC-AUC = 0.78). Conclusion: NLMR may be a potential marker for predicting the risk of early death in adult patients with septic shock, warranting further exploration and verification.

Impact of TNFRSF1B (rs3397, rs1061624 and rs1061622) and IL6 (rs1800796, rs1800797 and rs1554606) Gene Polymorphisms on Inflammatory Response in Patients with End-Stage Kidney Disease Undergoing Dialysis.

We aimed to study the impact of polymorphisms in the genes encoding interleukin-6 (IL6) and tumor necrosis factor receptor-2 (TNFR2), reported to be mortality risk predictors, in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) undergoing dialysis. TNFRSF1B (rs3397, rs1061624, and rs1061622) and IL6 (rs1800796, rs1800797, and rs1554606) polymorphisms were studied in patients with ESKD and controls; the genotype and allele frequencies and the associations with inflammatory and erythropoiesis markers were determined; deaths were recorded throughout the following two years. The genotype and allele frequencies for the TNFRSF1B rs3397 polymorphism were different in these patients compared to those in the controls and the global and European populations, and patients with the C allele were less common. Patients with the CC genotype for TNFRSF1B rs3397 presented higher hemoglobin and erythrocyte counts and lower TNF-α levels, suggesting a more favorable inflammatory response that seems to be associated with erythropoiesis improvement. Patients with the GG genotype for TNFRSF1B rs1061622 showed lower serum ferritin levels. None of the TNFRSF1B (rs3397, rs1061624, and rs1061622) or IL6 (rs1800796, rs1800797, and rs1554606) polymorphisms had a significant impact on the all-cause mortality rate of Portuguese patients with ESKD.

Lower Free T3 Levels Linked to Poorer Outcomes in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients with Acute Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure.

Aim of the Study: Non-thyroidal illness syndrome (NTIS) is often observed in critically ill patients. This study aimed to examine thyroid hormone changes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experiencing acute hypercapnic respiratory failure (AHRF) and to evaluate the impact of these alterations on clinical outcomes. Materials and Methods: This retrospective investigation involved 80 COPD patients (age 71.5±9.5 years; 57.5% male) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) due to AHRF. NTIS was identified when free triiodothyronine (fT3) levels were below the lower limit, and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (fT4) levels were within the normal range or below the lower limits. Results: NTIS was detected in 63.7% of the patients. Decreased fT3 levels were found in 36.3% of the patients, reduced T4 levels in 33.8%, and diminished TSH levels in 15%. Patients with low fT3 levels exhibited elevated C-reactive protein levels, white blood cell counts, and APACHE II scores, necessitated vasopressor infusion more frequently during their ICU stay, and had increased mortality. The in-hospital mortality rate was 28.8%. Logistic regression analysis revealed that fT3 level (odds ratio [OR]., 0.271; 95% confidence interval [CI]., 0.085-0.865; p=0.027), APACHE II score (OR, 1.155; 95% CI, 1.041-1.282; p=0.007), and vasopressor use (OR, 5.426; 95% CI, 1.439-20.468; p=0.013) were crucial predictors of in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: A high prevalence of NTIS is observed in COPD patients with AHRF, with low fT3 levels frequently observed. The presence of lower levels of fT3 is associated with a greater severity of the disease and a significant prognostic indicator.

Evaluating the Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) II Score for Mortality Prediction in Preterm Newborns: A Prospective Observational Study at a Tertiary Care Hospital.

INTRODUCTION: Neonatal mortality is an issue that affects both the developed and developing world. It is very important in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) to do the assessment of the severity of neonatal illness, which in turn helps in estimating and preventing mortality in the NICU by improving healthcare control and by rational use of resources. This research was carried out to evaluate how effectively the Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) II score can predict mortality rates among newborns treated in our NICU.  Methodology: This prospective observational study spanned one year, commencing in October 2021 and concluding in September 2022, within the confines of our NICU. The CRIB II score calculation was performed for included newborns, and the outcomes of the newborns were compared. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was obtained to ascertain the optimal CRIB II cut-off score for predicting mortality. RESULTS: Within the designated research timeframe, 292 neonates were admitted to the NICU. Forty-four newborns were enrolled in the study. Preterm neonates who died had higher CRIB II scores than those who survived, and their median (IQR) was 6 (1-12) vs. 9.5 (5-14) (p=0.0003). The estimate for the area under the curve was 0.83 (95% CI 0.68-0.92), and the odds ratio of 2.56 suggests neonates with a higher CRIB II score have higher chances of mortality. CONCLUSION: The CRIB II score is very good at predicting mortality in preterm newborns.

C-Reactive Protein and Albumin Levels as Useful Tools for Predicting In-Hospital Outcomes in Polish Nonagenarians.

Purpose: The admissions of nonagenarians to internal medicine wards are rising. The aim of this study was to analyse the causes of ward admission and blood and renal parameters as potential mortality predictors in this age group. Patients and Methods: Out of 1140 patients, 111 nonagenarians aged 90+ admitted to the Internal Medicine Ward in one general hospital in Poznan in 2019 were studied. Medical records of these patients were analysed to find factors attributable to the hospitalisation. Results: The leading causes of admission were infections and cardiovascular diseases, and the main causes of death were cardiovascular diseases. Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) level was a statistically significant death predictor. Equally, decreased albumin level was found to be a mortality predictor. No such relationships were obtained for haematological or renal parameters. Conclusion: Our study uniquely analysed a relatively large group of hospitalised nonagenarians and identified those who need particular attention in the ward by identifying those with the highest risk of death. CRP and albumin levels may serve as useful indicators of in-hospital mortality in this age group.

Machine learning-based model for predicting inpatient mortality in adults with traumatic brain injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background and objective: Predicting mortality from traumatic brain injury facilitates early data-driven treatment decisions. Machine learning has predicted mortality from traumatic brain injury in a growing number of studies, and the aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis of machine learning models in predicting mortality from traumatic brain injury. Methods: This systematic review and meta-analysis included searches of PubMed, Web of Science and Embase from inception to June 2023, supplemented by manual searches of study references and review articles. Data were analyzed using Stata 16.0 software. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD2023440875). Results: A total of 14 studies were included. The studies showed significant differences in the overall sample, model type and model validation. Predictive models performed well with a pooled AUC of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.87 to 0.92). Conclusion: Overall, this study highlights the excellent predictive capabilities of machine learning models in determining mortality following traumatic brain injury. However, it is important to note that the optimal machine learning modeling approach has not yet been identified. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=440875, identifier CRD2023440875.

The mortality of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease: a retrospective multi-center study.

Background: Patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) have a higher risk of mortality when infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Although the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI) score can predict mortality in CLD, their correlation with the clinical outcomes of CLD patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association between the liver severity and the mortality in hospitalized patients with non-cirrhotic CLD and COVID-19. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed 231 patients with non-cirrhotic CLD and COVID-19. Clinical characteristics, laboratory data, including liver status indices, and clinical outcomes were assessed to determine the correlation between liver status indices and the mortality among patients with non-cirrhotic CLD and COVID-19. Results: Non-survivors had higher levels of prothrombin time-international normalized ratio (PT-INR), alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and lower albumin levels. Multivariable analysis showed that ALBI grade 3 (odds ratio (OR): 22.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.70-305.38], p = 0.018), FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25 (OR: 10.62, 95% CI [1.12-100.31], p = 0.039), PT-INR (OR: 19.81, 95% CI [1.31-299.49], p = 0.031), hs-CRP (OR: 1.02, 95% CI [1.01-1.02], p = 0.001), albumin level (OR: 0.08, 95% CI [0.02-0.39], p = 0.002), and use of vasopressors (OR: 4.98, 95% CI [1.27-19.46], p = 0.021) were associated with the mortality. Conclusion: The ALBI grade 3 and FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25, higher PT-INR, hsCRP levels and lower albumin levels could be associated with mortality in non-cirrhotic CLD patients with COVID-19. Clinicians could assess the ALBI grade, FIB-4 index, PT-INR, hs-CRP, and albumin levels of patients with non-cirrhotic CLD upon admission.

Outcome Predictors of Percutaneous Cholecystostomy As Definitive Versus Bridging Treatment for Acute Cholecystitis.

Introduction Percutaneous cholecystostomy (PC) is a treatment option for patients with acute cholecystitis (AC) who are too unwell, or too morbid for laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC). Some patients have PC as a definitive treatment, whereas others have PC as a bridging treatment prior to LC. The aim of this study is to investigate patient characteristics and mortality among those who received PC as definitive treatment versus bridging treatment. Methods Our study retrospectively reviewed all patients treated with PC for AC from February 2019 to November 2022 at the Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust, Torquay, England. Fifty patients underwent PC for AC, with 48 patients having follow-up data available for analysis. Of these, 26 patients (54%) only received PC (definitive PC), and 22 patients (46%) later underwent LC (bridging LC). Results In this study, 68.8% of the patients were male, with a mean age of 76 ± 9 years. The overall mean Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score was 4.96 ± 1.12, and the mean American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score was 2.83 ± 0.36. The median PC drain duration was 42 days. Six patients (12.5%) had a recurrence of AC with a mean of 57 days onset after PC insertion. Twelve patients (25%) experienced PC complications: 11 (23%) were minor, involving pain or a dislodged tube, and one (2%) was major, resulting in a subhepatic abscess. The median duration from PC insertion to LC surgery was 50.5 days. The bridging LC cohort had a 30-day and one-year mortality of 0%, while the definitive PC cohort had a 30-day mortality of 30.8% (eight patients) and a one-year mortality of 46.1% (12 patients). The bridging LC cohort compared to the definitive PC cohort had a significantly lower CCI (4.39 vs 5.57, p<0.05), and a significantly lower ASA (2.61 vs 3.04, p<0.05). The one-year survival cohort compared to the 30-day mortality cohort had significantly lower ASA (2.71 vs 3.25 p<0.05), and a non-significantly lower CCI (4.66 vs 5.86 p=0.094). The presence of negative predictive factors of respiratory dysfunction and hyperbilirubinemia had higher 30-day and 90-day mortality rates of 31.3% and 37.5%, compared to their absence of 9.4% and 21.4% respectively. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that PC is a safe procedure with a high success rate and low complications. We showed that PC is an effective treatment option for bridging a select cohort of patients to receive a delayed LC. Furthermore, the data suggests ASA and CCI scoring can be used as clinical adjuncts to assess whether bridging patients from PC to LC is appropriate. Finally, ASA, respiratory dysfunction, and hyperbilirubinemia can be used as significant negative predictors of post-PC mortality.

A Rising Star of the Multimarker Panel: Growth Differentiation Factor-15 Levels Are an Independent Predictor of Mortality in Acute Heart Failure Patients Admitted to an Emergency Clinical Hospital from Eastern Europe.

(1) Background: Acute heart failure (HF) represents one of the most common yet extremely severe presentations in emergency services worldwide, requiring prompt diagnosis, followed by an adequate therapeutic approach, and a thorough risk stratification. Natriuretic peptides (NPs) are currently the most widely implemented biomarkers in acute HF, but due to their lack of specificity, they are mainly used as ruling-out criteria. Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is a novel molecule expressing different pathophysiological pathways in HF, such as fibrosis, remodeling, and oxidative stress. It is also considered a very promising predictor of mortality and poor outcome. In this study, we aimed to investigate the GDF-15's expression and particularities in patients with acute HF, focusing mainly on its role as a prognosis biomarker, either per se or as part of a multimarker panel. (2) Methods: This unicentric prospective study included a total of 173 subjects, divided into 2 subgroups: 120 patients presented in emergency with acute HF, while 53 were ambulatory-evaluated controls with chronic HF. At admission, all patients were evaluated according to standard clinical echocardiography and laboratory panel, including the assessment of GDF-15. (3) Results: The levels of GDF-15 were significantly higher in patients with acute HF, compared to controls [596 (305−904) vs. 216 (139−305) ng/L, p < 0.01]. GDF-15 also exhibited an adequate diagnostic performance in acute HF, expressed as an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.883 [confidence interval (CI) 95%: 0.828−0.938], similar to that of NT-proBNP (AUC: 0.976, CI 95%: 0.952−1.000), or troponin (AUC: 0.839, CI 95%: 0.733−0.944). High concentrations of GDF-15 were significantly correlated with mortality risk. In a multivariate regression model, GDF-15 was the most important predictor of a poor outcome, superior to NT-proBNP or troponin. (4) Conclusions: GDF-15 proved to be a reliable tool in the multimarker assessment of patients with acute HF. Compared to the gold standard NT-proBNP, GDF-15 presented a similar diagnostic performance, doubled by a significantly superior prognostic value, making it worth being included in a standardized multimarker panel.

Chest CT severity score as a predictor of mortality and short-term prognosis in COVID-19.

Background: As India was slowly coming out of shock from the second wave wrecked by the Delta strain, the world population is now struck once again with a new strain of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), designated as B.1.1.529, named as OMICRON. Though several international studies have evaluated the role of computed tomography (CT) in diagnosis, predicting prognosis, and monitoring the progression of disease, to our best knowledge, there are no Indian studies published in this context. Objective: (1) To determine the use of chest CT severity score as predictor of mortality in COVID-19 patients. (2) To determine the prognosis based on length of hospital stay. Materials and Methods: A observational cohort study was done at Travancore Medical College Hospital. A retrospective analysis of patients who presented to the Emergency Medicine Department with a positive COVID antigen or reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) results and those who underwent a CT chest at the time of presentation was conducted. Data was analyzed by using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 16. Descriptive statistics such as mean, frequency, and percentages were calculated. Chi-square test was used to find the statistical significance. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the relationship between CT score and mortality, which was compared with the log-rank test. Results: A total of 252 patients with positive COVID antigen or RT-PCR who underwent CT chest were included in our study. Our study population was composed of 139 (55.2%) males and 113 (44.8%) females. Only one patient with mild CT severity score required >14 days of ICU stay, whereas two (2%) and five (9.6%) patients with moderate and severe CT severity score, respectively, required ICU stay for >14 days. The P value was 0.001, which again is statistically significant. In our study, out of 44 patients categorized under mild CT severity score, only two (4.5%) patients had expired. Out of 98 patients categorized under moderate CT severity score, 14 (14.3%) patients had expired, whereas out of 52 patients categorized under severe CT severity score at the time of admission, 25 (48.1%) patients had expired. The P value was 0.001, which is statistically significant. Conclusion: Our study could prove that patients with CT severity score ≥15 had high risk of mortality and required prolonged ICU stay of >5 days. CT severity score helps the primary care physicians to predict probable outcome and length of hospital stay at the time of admission itself and allocate the limited resources appropriately.

Early Biochemical Markers in Predicting the Clinical Outcome of COVID-19 Patients Admitted in Tertiary Care Hospital.

Introduction An array of routinely accessible serum biomarkers was assessed to explore their overall impact on severity and mortality in coronavirus disease 2019. Materials and Methods A retrospective analysis of 1,233 adults was conducted. The study groups comprised 127 nonsurvivors and 1,106 survivors. Data for demographic details, clinical presentations, and laboratory reports were recorded from the medical record section. The predictors were analyzed for their influence on mortality. Results The mean (+ standard deviation) age of the patients in the nonsurvivor group was 58.8 (13.8) years. The mean age (56.4 years) was highest in severe grade patients. The odds ratio for death was 2.72 times for patients above the age of 40 years. About 46% of nonsurvivors died within 5 days of admission. Males were found to be more prone to death than females by a factor of 1.36. Serum urea depicted highest sensitivity (85%) for nonsurvival at 52.5 mg/dL. Serum albumin (3.23 g/dL), albumin-to-globulin ratio (0.97), and C-reactive protein-to albumin ratio (CAR) (2.08) showed a sensitivity of more than 70% for mortality outcomes. The high hazard ratio (HR) for deceased patients with hyperkalemia was 2.419 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.96-2.99; p < 0.001). The risk for nonsurvival was increased with elevated serum creatinine by 15.6% and uric acid by 21.7% ( p < 0.001). The HR for hypoalbuminemia was 0.254 (95% CI: 0.196-0.33; p < 0.001) and CAR was 1.319 (95% CI: 1.246-1.397; p < 0.001). Saturation of oxygen ( p < 0.001), lactate dehydrogenase ( p = 0.006), ferritin ( p = 0.004), hyperuricemia ( p = 0.027), hyperkalemia ( p < 0.001), hypoalbuminemia ( p = 0.002), and high CAR values (0.031) served as potential predictors for mortality. Conclusion Adjusting for all the predictor variables, serum uric acid, potassium, albumin, and CAR values at the time of admission were affirmed as the potential biomarkers for mortality.

Altered Heart Rate Turbulence and Variability Parameters Predict 1-Year Mortality in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a complex and heterogeneous clinical syndrome. In the absence of effective and potent treatment strategies, the main challenge in HFpEF management remains the availability of strong predictors of unfavourable outcomes. In our study, we sought to evaluate the potential prognostic value of heart rate turbulence (HRT) and variability (HRV) parameters on mortality in ambulatory HFpEF patients. METHODS: This was a case-control study comparing HRT and HRV parameters in HFpEF survivors vs. non-survivors. Patients from the RESPOND Heart Failure Registry with HFpEF who underwent 24 h ECG monitoring (Holter) were included; HRT parameters (i.e., turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS)) and HRV parameters (i.e., standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN)) derived from 24 h Holter ECGs were calculated in patients who died within 12 months, and compared to their age-, gender-, LVEF-, ECHO-, aetiology-, and therapy-matched alive controls. RESULTS: A total of 22 patients (mean age 80 ± 7 years, 18% female, mean LVEF 57 ± 9%) were included in the final analysis. In deceased patients, values of TO were significantly higher, and values of TS and SDNN were significantly lower as compared to survivors. CONCLUSIONS: HRT and HRV parameters have the ability to differentiate individuals with HFpEF who are at the greatest risk of unfavourable outcomes. The extent of autonomic disbalance as determined by HRT and HRV could potentially assist in the prognostic assessment and risk stratification of HFpEF patients.

Prognostic Value of Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment Models in Patients with Severe COVID-19.

Introduction Severe novel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes dysregulation of the coagulation system with arterial and venous thromboembolism (VTE). We hypothesize that validated VTE risk scores would have prognostic ability in this population. Methods Retrospective observational cohort with severe COVID-19 performed in NorthShore University Health System. Patients were >18 years of age and met criteria for inpatient or intensive care unit (ICU) care. The International Medical Prevention Registry on Venous Thromboembolism (IMPROVE) and Caprini scores were calculated and patients were stratified. Results This study includes 184 patients, mostly men (63.6%), Caucasian (54.3%), 63 years old (interquartile range [IQR]: 24-101), and 57.1% of them required ICU care. Twenty-seven (14.7%) thrombotic events occurred: 12 (6.5%) cases of disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), 9 (4.9%) of pulmonary embolism, 5 (2.7%) of deep vein thrombosis, and 1 (0.5%) stroke. Among them, 86 patients (46.7%) died, 95 (51.6%) were discharged, and 3 (1.6%) were still hospitalized. "Moderate risk for VTE" and "High risk for VTE" by IMPROVE score had significant mortality association: (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.68; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.93-11.03; p < 0.001) and (HR = 6.22; 95% CI: 3.04-12.71; p < 0.001), respectively, with 87% sensitivity and 63% specificity (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.752, p < 0.001). "High Risk for VTE" by Caprini score had significant mortality association (HR = 17.6; 95% CI: 5.56-55.96; p < 0.001) with 96% sensitivity and 55% specificity (AUC = 0.843, p < 0.001). Both scores were associated with thrombotic events when classified as "High risk for VTE" by IMPROVE (HR = 6.50; 95% CI: 2.72-15.53; p < 0.001) and Caprini scores (HR = 11.507; 95% CI: 2.697-49.104; p = 0.001). Conclusion The IMPROVE and Caprini risk scores were independent predictors of mortality and thrombotic events in severe COVID-19. With larger validation, this can be useful prognostic information.

Evaluation of clinical factors and three scoring systems for predicting mortality in perforated peptic ulcer patients, a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Early identification of mortality risk in perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) patients is important for triage and risk stratification. This study aimed to compare clinical and laboratory factors and three scoring systems to predict mortality in PPU patients. METHODS: Retrospective data on PPU patients at M. Djamil Hospital who underwent emergency laparotomy repair surgery were collected from December 2018 to May 2021. The data included demographics, clinical characteristics, and three scoring systems. Data analysis used bivariate, multivariate, and ROC analysis. RESULTS: A total 72 patients were included and mortality rate was 52.8%. Bivariate analysis showed a significant association between age (p = 0.029), onset of illness (p = 0.001), alteration of consciousness (p = <0.001), respiratory rate (p = 0.04), duration of surgery (p = 0.040), preoperative shock (p = 0.049), preoperative creatinine (p = <0.001), Boey's scores (p = 0.002), ASA (p = 0.001), and qSOFA scores (p = <0.001) with mortality in PPU patients. From multivariate analysis, the strongest clinical factors associated with mortality were alteration of consciousness (p = <0.001) and preoperative creatinine (p = 0.001). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis showed the area under the curve (AUC) of Boey's Score 0.73, ASA classification 0.69, qSOFA score 0.77, alteration of consciousness 0.74, and preoperative creatinine 0.78. CONCLUSION: Preoperative creatinine and altered consciousness had the strongest association with mortality in PPU patients. The qSOFA score predicted mortality better than Boey's score and ASA classification. Preoperative creatinine was the best single predictor of mortality.

The Neutrophil-to-Monocyte Ratio and Lymphocyte-to-Neutrophil Ratio at Admission Predict In-Hospital Mortality in Mexican Patients with Severe SARS-CoV-2 Infection (Covid-19).

There is a deep need for mortality predictors that allow clinicians to quickly triage patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) into intensive care units at the time of hospital admission. Thus, we examined the efficacy of the lymphocyte-to-neutrophil ratio (LNR) and neutrophil-to-monocyte ratio (NMR) as predictors of in-hospital death at admission in patients with severe Covid-19. A total of 54 Mexican adult patients with Covid-19 that met hospitalization criteria were retrospectively enrolled, followed-up daily until hospital discharge or death, and then assigned to survival or non-survival groups. Clinical, demographic, and laboratory parameters were recorded at admission. A total of 20 patients with severe Covid-19 died, and 75% of them were men older than 62.90 ± 14.18 years on average. Type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease were more prevalent in non-survivors. As compared to survivors, LNR was significantly fourfold decreased while NMR was twofold increased. LNR ≤ 0.088 predicted in-hospital mortality with a sensitivity of 85.00% and a specificity of 74.19%. NMR ≥ 17.75 was a better independent risk factor for mortality with a sensitivity of 89.47% and a specificity of 80.00%. This study demonstrates for the first time that NMR and LNR are accurate predictors of in-hospital mortality at admission in patients with severe Covid-19.