A multidisciplinary approach to estimating wolf population size for long-term conservation.

The wolf (Canis lupus) is among the most controversial of wildlife species. Abundance estimates are required to inform public debate and policy decisions, but obtaining them at biologically relevant scales is challenging. We developed a system for comprehensive population estimation across the Italian alpine region (100,000 km2 ), involving 1513 trained operators representing 160 institutions. This extensive network allowed for coordinated genetic sample collection and landscape-level spatial capture-recapture analyses that transcended administrative boundaries to produce the first estimates of key parameters for wolf population status assessment. Wolf abundance was estimated at 952 individuals (95% credible interval 816-1120) and 135 reproductive units (i.e., packs) (95% credible interval 112-165). We also estimated that mature individuals accounted for 33-45% of the entire population. The monitoring effort was spatially estimated thereby overcoming an important limitation of citizen science data. This is an important approach for promoting wolf-human coexistence based on wolf abundance monitoring and an endorsement of large-scale harmonized conservation practices.

Una estrategia multidisciplinaria para la estimación del tamaño poblacional de los lobos para la conservación a largo plazo Resumen El lobo (Canis lupus) está entre las especies de fauna más controversiales. Se requieren estimaciones de abundancia para informar al debate público y las decisiones políticas, pero es un reto obtenerlos en escalas con relevancia biológica. Desarrollamos un sistema para la estimación completa de la población en la región alpina de Italia (100,000 km2 ), con la participación de 1,513 operadores entrenados que representan a 160 instituciones. Esta red extensa permitió una colecta coordinada de muestras genéticas y análisis de captura-recaptura espacial que trascendieron las fronteras administrativas para así producir las primeras estimaciones de los parámetros clave para la evaluación del estado de la población de los lobos. Se estimó la abundancia en 952 individuos (95% intervalo de confianza 816-1120) y 135 unidades reproductivas (es decir, manadas) (95% intervalo de confianza 112-165). También estimamos que los individuos maduros representaban el 33-45% de toda la población. El esfuerzo de monitoreo se estimó espacialmente, por lo que sobrepasó una limitación importante de la ciencia ciudadana. Esta estrategia es importante para promover la coexistencia entre lobos y humanos con base en el monitoreo de la abundancia y el apoyo a las prácticas armonizadas de conservación a gran escala.

Triadic family structures and their day-to-day dynamics from an adolescent perspective: A multilevel latent profile analysis.

Relationship structure (patterns of relative closeness among multiple family members) and dynamics (changes in relationship structures overtime) are two main aspects of family system functioning, yet empirical tests of these concepts lag behind theory. Recent growth in advanced methods for complex data structures makes it possible to empirically capture structures and dynamics within multiple family relationships overtime. To answer how relationship structure may fluctuate from day to day, this study used multilevel latent profile analysis (MLPA) as an innovative and feasible method to capture mother-father-adolescent (MFA) relationship structures and dynamics on a daily basis. Using daily adolescent reports of mother-father (MF), mother-adolescent (MA), and father-adolescent (FA) closeness from 144 two-parent families for up to 21 days, we identified six day-level MFA structures: Cohesive (33% of days; three close dyads), Mother-Centered (9%; closer MF, average MA, less close FA), Adolescent-Centered (4%; less close MF, closer MA and FA), MA-Coalition (3%; closer MA, less close MF and FA), Disengaged (23%; three less close dyads), and Average (28%; three approximately average dyads). We identified five types of MFA dynamics at the family level: Stable Cohesive (35% of families; exhibited Cohesive structure most days), Stable Disengaged (20%; Disengaged structure most days), Stable MA-Coalition (3%; MA-Coalition structure most days), Stable Average (24%; Average structure most days), and Variable (17%; varied among multiple structures). Methodologically, daily diary designs and MLPA can be useful tools to empirically examine concrete hypotheses of complex, non-linear processes in family systems. Substantive and methodological implications are discussed.

La estructura de las relaciones (los patrones de cercanía relativa entre varios miembros de la familia) y su dinámica (los cambios en las estructuras de las relaciones con el tiempo) son dos aspectos principales del funcionamiento familia-sistema, sin embargo, las pruebas empíricas de estos conceptos se retrasan en relación con la teoría. El crecimiento reciente en los métodos avanzados de estructuras de datos complejos hace posible captar empíricamente las estructuras y la dinámica dentro de las relaciones de varias familias con el tiempo. Para responder cómo la estructura de las relaciones puede variar día a día, se utilizó en este estudio un análisis de perfiles latentes multinivel como método innovador y viable para captar las estructuras y la dinámica de las relaciones madre-padre-adolescente (MPA) diariamente. Utilizando informes diarios de los adolescentes sobre la cercanía madre-padre (MP), madre-adolescente (MA) y padre-adolescente (PA) de 144 familias de dos padres durante un máximo de 21 días, identificamos seis estructuras MPA de nivel diario: cohesiva (el 33 % de los días; tres díadas cercanas), centrada en la madre (el 9 %; más cercanía MP, MA promedio, menos cercanía PA), centrada en el adolescente (el 4 %; menos cercanía MP, más cercanía MA y PA), alianza MA (el 3 %; mas cercanía MA, menos cercanía MP y PA), indiferente (el 23 %; tres díadas menos cercanas), y promedio (el 28 %; tres díadas aproximadamente promedio). Identificamos tres tipos de dinámica MPA al nivel de la familia: cohesiva estable (el 35 % de las familias demostró una estructura cohesiva la mayoría de los días), indiferente estable (el 20 %; estructura indiferente la mayoría de los días), alianza MA estable (el 3 %; estructura de alianza MA la mayoría de los días), promedio estable (el 24 %; estructura promedio la mayoría de los días), y variable (el 17 %; varió entre numerosas estructuras). Metodológicamente, los diseños de registro diario y el análisis de perfiles latentes multinivel pueden ser herramientas útiles para analizar empíricamente hipótesis concretas de los procesos complejos y no lineales de los sistemas familiares. Se debaten las consecuencias sustanciales y metodológicas.

Automated conservation assessment of the orchid family with deep learning.

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments are essential for prioritizing conservation needs but are resource intensive and therefore available only for a fraction of global species richness. Automated conservation assessments based on digitally available geographic occurrence records can be a rapid alternative, but it is unclear how reliable these assessments are. We conducted automated conservation assessments for 13,910 species (47.3% of the known species in the family) of the diverse and globally distributed orchid family (Orchidaceae), for which most species (13,049) were previously unassessed by IUCN. We used a novel method based on a deep neural network (IUC-NN). We identified 4,342 orchid species (31.2% of the evaluated species) as possibly threatened with extinction (equivalent to IUCN categories critically endangered [CR], endangered [EN], or vulnerable [VU]) and Madagascar, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and several oceanic islands as priority areas for orchid conservation. Orchidaceae provided a model with which to test the sensitivity of automated assessment methods to problems with data availability, data quality, and geographic sampling bias. The IUC-NN identified possibly threatened species with an accuracy of 84.3%, with significantly lower geographic evaluation bias relative to the IUCN Red List and was robust even when data availability was low and there were geographic errors in the input data. Overall, our results demonstrate that automated assessments have an important role to play in identifying species at the greatest risk of extinction.

Evaluación Automatizada de la Conservación de la Familia Orchidaceae mediante Aprendizaje Profundo Resumen Los análisis de la Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) son esenciales para la priorización de las necesidades de conservación, pero requieren de muchos recursos y por lo tanto están disponibles sólo para una fracción de la riqueza mundial de especies. Las evaluaciones automatizadas de la conservación basadas en los registros disponibles de presencia geográfica pueden ser una alternativa rápida pero no está claro cuán confiables son estas evaluaciones. Realizamos evaluaciones automatizadas de la conservación para 13,910 especies (47.3% de las especies conocidas de la familia) de la diversa y mundialmente distribuida familia de las orquídeas (Orchidaceae), en la cual la mayoría de las especies (13,049) no tenían una valoración previa por parte de la UICN. Usamos un método novedoso basado en una red neural profunda (IUC-NN). Identificamos 4,342 especies de orquídeas (31.2% de las especies evaluadas) como posiblemente amenazadas por la extinción (equivalente a las categorías de la UICN en peligro crítico [CR], en peligro [EN] o vulnerable [VU]) y a Madagascar, África Occidental, el sudeste de Asia y varias islas oceánicas como áreas prioritarias para la conservación de orquídeas. La familia Orchidaceae proporcionó un modelo con el cual probar la sensibilidad de los métodos de evaluación automatizada ante problemas con la disponibilidad de datos, la calidad de los datos y los sesgos de muestreo geográfico. La IUC-NN identificó posibles especies amenazadas con una certeza de 84.3% con un sesgo de evaluación geográfica significativamente más bajo en relación con la Lista Roja de la UICN y mostró solidez incluso cuando la disponibilidad de datos fue baja y hubo errores geográficos en los datos de entrada. En general, nuestros resultados demostraron que las evaluaciones automatizadas tienen un papel importante que desempeñar en la identificación de especies con mayor riesgo de extinción.

Effects of site-selection bias on estimates of biodiversity change.

Estimates of biodiversity change are essential for the management and conservation of ecosystems. Accurate estimates rely on selecting representative sites, but monitoring often focuses on sites of special interest. How such site-selection biases influence estimates of biodiversity change is largely unknown. Site-selection bias potentially occurs across four major sources of biodiversity data, decreasing in likelihood from citizen science, museums, national park monitoring, and academic research. We defined site-selection bias as a preference for sites that are either densely populated (i.e., abundance bias) or species rich (i.e., richness bias). We simulated biodiversity change in a virtual landscape and tracked the observed biodiversity at a sampled site. The site was selected either randomly or with a site-selection bias. We used a simple spatially resolved, individual-based model to predict the movement or dispersal of individuals in and out of the chosen sampling site. Site-selection bias exaggerated estimates of biodiversity loss in sites selected with a bias by on average 300-400% compared with randomly selected sites. Based on our simulations, site-selection bias resulted in positive trends being estimated as negative trends: richness increase was estimated as 0.1 in randomly selected sites, whereas sites selected with a bias showed a richness change of -0.1 to -0.2 on average. Thus, site-selection bias may falsely indicate decreases in biodiversity. We varied sampling design and characteristics of the species and found that site-selection biases were strongest in short time series, for small grains, organisms with low dispersal ability, large regional species pools, and strong spatial aggregation. Based on these findings, to minimize site-selection bias, we recommend use of systematic site-selection schemes; maximizing sampling area; calculating biodiversity measures cumulatively across plots; and use of biodiversity measures that are less sensitive to rare species, such as the effective number of species. Awareness of the potential impact of site-selection bias is needed for biodiversity monitoring, the design of new studies on biodiversity change, and the interpretation of existing data.

Efectos del Sesgo en la Selección de Sitio sobre las Estimaciones del Cambio en la Biodiversidad Resumen Las estimaciones del cambio en la biodiversidad son esenciales para el manejo y la conservación de los ecosistemas. Las estimaciones precisas dependen de la selección de sitios representativos pero su monitoreo con frecuencia se enfoca en los sitios de interés especial. En su mayoría se desconoce cómo influyen tales sesgos en la selección de sitios sobre las estimaciones del cambio en la biodiversidad. El sesgo en la selección de sitios ocurre potencialmente en cuatro fuentes principales de datos sobre biodiversidad, disminuyendo en probabilidad cuando los datos vienen de la ciencia ciudadana, museos, el monitoreo de los parques nacionales y la investigación académica. Definimos al sesgo en la selección de sitios como la preferencia por sitios que están densamente poblados (es decir, sesgo por abundancia) o que son ricos en especies (es decir, sesgo por riqueza). Simulamos el cambio en la biodiversidad en un paisaje virtual y le dimos seguimiento a la biodiversidad observada en un sitio muestreado. El sitio fue seleccionado al azar o con un sesgo en la selección de sitio. Usamos un modelo simple basado en los individuos y resuelto espacialmente para predecir el movimiento o la dispersión de los individuos dentro y fuera del sitio de muestreo elegido. El sesgo en la selección de sitio exageró las estimaciones de la pérdida de la biodiversidad en los sitios seleccionados con un sesgo en promedio de 300-400% en comparación con sitios seleccionados al azar. Con base en nuestras simulaciones, el sesgo en la selección de sitio derivó en que las tendencias positivas se estimaran como tendencias negativas: se estimó que el incremento en la riqueza fue de 0.1 en sitios seleccionados al azar, mientras que en los sitios seleccionados con un sesgo mostraron un cambio en la riqueza de −0.1 a −0.2 en promedio. Así, el sesgo en la selección de sitio puede indicar erróneamente la existencia de disminuciones en la biodiversidad. Variamos el diseño del muestreo y las características de las especies y encontramos que los sesgos en la selección de sitio estaban más consolidados en las series de tiempo corto, para los granos pequeños, organismos con una baja habilidad de dispersión, grandes patrimonios genéticos de especies regionales y una agregación espacial fuerte. Con base en estos resultados, para lograr minimizar el sesgo en la selección de sitio, recomendamos usar esquemas sistemáticos de selección de sitio; maximizar el área de muestreo; calcular las medidas de biodiversidad acumulativamente en los lotes; y usar las medidas de biodiversidad que son menos sensibles a las especies raras, como el número efectivo de especies. Se necesita tener conciencia sobre el impacto potencial del sesgo en la selección de sitio para el monitoreo de la biodiversidad, el diseño de nuevos estudios sobre el cambio en la biodiversidad y la interpretación de los datos existentes.

Limitations, lack of standardization, and recommended best practices in studies of renewable energy effects on birds and bats.

Increasing global energy demand is fostering the development of renewable energy as an alternative to fossil fuels. However, renewable energy facilities may adversely affect wildlife. Facility siting guidelines recommend or require project developers complete pre- and postconstruction wildlife surveys to predict risk and estimate effects of proposed projects. Despite this, there are no published studies that have quantified the types of surveys used or how survey types are standardized within and across facilities. We evaluated 628 peer-reviewed publications, unpublished reports, and citations, and we analyzed data from 525 of these sources (203 facilities: 193 wind and 10 solar) in the United States and Canada to determine the frequency of pre- and postconstruction surveys and whether that frequency changed over time; frequency of studies explicitly designed to allow before-after or impact-control analyses; and what types of survey data were collected during pre- and postconstruction periods and how those data types were standardized across periods and among facilities. Within our data set, postconstruction monitoring for wildlife fatalities and habitat use was a standard practice (n = 446 reports), but preconstruction estimation of baseline wildlife habitat use and mortality was less frequently reported (n = 84). Only 22% (n = 45) of the 203 facilities provided data from both pre- and postconstruction, and 29% (n = 59) had experimental study designs. Of 108 facilities at which habitat-use surveys were conducted, only 3% estimated of detection probability. Thus, the available data generally preclude comparison of biological data across construction periods and among facilities. Use of experimental study designs and following similar field protocols would improve the knowledge of how renewable energy affects wildlife. Article Impact Statement Many surveys at wind and solar facilities provide limited information on wildlife use and fatality rates.

Limitaciones, Falta de Estandarización y las Mejores Prácticas Recomendadas en Estudios de los Efectos de las Energías Renovables sobre las Aves y los Murciélagos Resumen La creciente demanda global por energía está fomentando el desarrollo de energías renovables como una alternativa a los combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, las instalaciones de energías renovables pueden afectar de manera adversa a la fauna. Las pautas para la ubicación de dichas instalaciones recomiendan o requieren que los desarrolladores de los proyectos realicen censos previa y posteriormente a la construcción de las instalaciones para pronosticar el riesgo y estimar los efectos de los proyectos propuestos. A pesar de esto, no existen estudios publicados que hayan cuantificado los tipos de censo usados o cómo los tipos de censo están estandarizados para las instalaciones en específico y en general. Evaluamos 628 publicaciones revisadas por pares, reportes sin publicar y referencias y analizamos los datos de 525 de estas fuentes (203 instalaciones: 193 de energía eólica y 10 de energía solar) en los Estados Unidos y Canadá para determinar la frecuencia de los censos previos y posteriores a la construcción y si dicha frecuencia cambió con el tiempo; para determinar la frecuencia de los estudios diseñados explícitamente para permitir los análisis antes-y-después o de control-impacto; y para determinar cuáles tipos de datos fueron recolectados previa y posteriormente a la construcción y cómo aquellos tipos de datos estuvieron estandarizados a través de los periodos y entre las instalaciones. Dentro de nuestro conjunto de datos, el monitoreo posterior a la construcción de las fatalidades faunísticas y el uso de hábitat fue una práctica común (n = 446 reportes), pero la estimación previa a la construcción de la línea base del uso de hábitat por la fauna y la mortalidad estuvo reportada con menor frecuencia (n = 84). Sólo el 22% (n = 45) de las 203 instalaciones proporcionaron datos de los censos previos y posteriores a la construcción y el 29% (n = 59) contó con diseño de estudios experimentales. De las 108 instalaciones en las que se realizaron censos de uso de hábitat, sólo el 3% incluyó la estimación de la probabilidad de detección. Por lo tanto, los datos disponibles generalmente impiden la comparación de los datos biológicos durante los periodos de construcción y entre las instalaciones. El uso del diseño de estudios experimentales y el seguimiento de protocolos de campo similares mejoraría el conocimiento sobre cómo las energías renovables afectan a la fauna.

A Bayesian-weighted approach to predicting the number of newly discovered rare species.

In natural ecological communities, most species are rare and thus susceptible to extinction. Consequently, the prediction and identification of rare species are of enormous value for conservation purposes. How many newly found species will be rare in the next field survey? We took a Bayesian viewpoint and used observed species abundance information in an ecological sample to develop an accurate way to estimate the number of new rare species (e.g., singletons, doubletons, and tripletons) in an additional unknown sample. A similar method has been developed for incidence-based data sets. Five seminumerical tests (3 abundance cases and 2 incidence cases) showed that our proposed Bayesian-weight estimator accurately predicted the number of new rare species with low relative bias and low relative root mean squared error and, accordingly, high accuracy. Finally, we applied the proposed estimator to 6 conservation-directed empirical data sets (3 abundance cases and 3 incidence cases) and found the prediction of new rare species was quite accurate; the 95% CI covered the true observed value very well in most cases. Our estimator performed similarly to or better than an unweighted estimator derived from Chao et al. and performed consistently better than the naïve unweighted estimator. We recommend our Bayesian-weight estimator for conservation applications, although the unweighted estimator of Chao et al. may be better under some circumstances. We provide an R package RSE (rare species estimation) at https://github.com/ecomol/RSE for implementation of the estimators.

Un Método con Ponderación Bayesiana para Predecir el Número de Especies Raras Recientemente Descubiertas Resumen En las comunidades ecológicas naturales, la mayoría de las especies son raras y por lo tanto susceptibles a la extinción. Como consecuencia, la predicción e identificación de las especies raras son de enorme valor para los propósitos de la conservación. ¿Cuántas especies recientemente descubiertas serán clasificadas como raras en el siguiente censo de campo? Tomamos un punto de vista bayesiano y utilizamos información de la abundancia observada de especies en una muestra ecológica para desarrollas una manera certera para estimar el número de nuevas especies raras (p. ej.: singleton, doubleton, y tripleton) en una muestra adicional desconocida. Un método similar se ha desarrollado para conjuntos de datos basados en la incidencia. Cinco pruebas semi-numéricas (tres casos de abundancia y dos casos de incidencia) mostraron que nuestra propuesta de estimador con ponderación bayesiana predijo con certeza el número de nuevas especies raras con un bajo sesgo relativo y un bajo error de la raíz cuadrada media relativa y, de manera acorde, una alta certeza. Finalmente, aplicamos el estimador propuesto a seis conjuntos de datos empíricos dirigidos hacia la conservación (tres casos de abundancia y tres casos de incidencia) y encontramos que la predicción de nuevas especies raras fue certera; el 95% del CI cubrió muy bien al verdadero valor observado en la mayoría de los casos. Nuestro estimador funcionó de manera similar o incluso mejor que un estimador sin ponderación derivado de Chao et al. (2015) y funcionó constantemente mejor que el simple estimador sin ponderación. Recomendamos nuestro estimador con ponderación bayesiana para ser aplicado en la conservación, aunque el estimador sin ponderación de Chao et al. (2015) puede ser mejor bajo ciertas circunstancias. Proporcionamos un paquete R para RSE (estimación de especies raras) en https://github.com/ecomol/RSE para la implementación de los estimadores.

Effects of publication bias on conservation planning.

Conservation planners need reliable information on spatial patterns of biodiversity. However, existing data sets are skewed because some ecosystems, taxa, and locations are underrepresented. We determined how many articles have been published in recent decades on the biodiversity of different countries and their constituent provinces. We searched the Web of Science catalogues Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) for biodiversity-related articles published from 1993 to 2016 that included country and province names. We combined data on research publication frequency with other provincial-scale factors hypothesized to affect the likelihood of research activity (i.e., economic development, human presence, infrastructure, and remoteness). Areas that appeared understudied relative to the biodiversity expected based on site climate likely have been inaccessible to researchers for reasons, notably armed conflict. Geographic publication bias is of most concern in the most remote areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Our provincial-scale model may help compensate for publication biases in conservation planning by revealing the spatial extent of research needs and the low cost of redoing this analysis annually.

Efectos del Sesgo de Publicación sobre la Planeación de la Conservación Resumen Los planeadores de la conservación necesitan información confiable sobre los patrones espaciales de la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, los conjuntos de datos existentes están distorsionados porque algunos ecosistemas, taxones y localidades están subrepresentados. Determinamos cuántos artículos sobre la biodiversidad de diferentes países y sus provincias constituyentes han sido publicados en décadas recientes. Buscamos artículos relacionados con la biodiversidad publicados entre 1993 y 2016 que incluyeran el nombre de países y provincias en los catálogos SCI y SSCI de la Web of Science. Combinamos los datos de frecuencia de publicación de investigaciones con otros factores de escala provincial que creemos afectarían la probabilidad de la actividad de investigación (es decir, desarrollo económico, presencia humana, infraestructura y lejanía). Las áreas que aparentaron estar poco estudiadas en relación con la biodiversidad esperada basada en el clima del sitio probablemente han estado inaccesibles para los investigadores por diferentes razones, notablemente los conflictos armados. El sesgo geográfico en las publicaciones es un tema de importancia para las áreas más remotas del África subsahariana y América del Sur. Nuestro modelo de escala provincial puede ayudar a compensar los sesgos de publicación en la planeación de la conservación al revelar la extensión espacial de las necesidades de investigación y los bajos costos de repetir este análisis cada año.

Effects of anthropogenic disturbance on primate density at the landscape scale.

Accurate estimations of the abundance of threatened animal populations are required for assessment of species' status and vulnerability and conservation planning. However, density estimation is usually difficult and resource demanding, so researchers often collect data at local scales. However, anthropogenic pressures most often have landscape-level effects, for example, through habitat loss and fragmentation. We applied hierarchical distance sampling (HDS) to transect count data to determine the effect of habitat and anthropogenic factors on the density of 3 arboreal primate species inhabiting 5 distinct tropical forests across a landscape of 19,000 km2 in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania. We developed a novel, multiregion extension of HDS that allowed us to model density and detectability jointly across forests without losing site-specific information. For all species, the effect of anthropogenic disturbance on density was overwhelmingly negative among metapopulations: -0.63 Angolan colobus (Colobus angolensis palliatus) (95% Bayesian CI -1.03 to -0.27), -0.54 Udzungwa red colobus (Procolobus gordonorum) (-0.89 to -0.22), and -0.33 Sykes' monkey (Cercopithecus mitis monoides) (-0.63 to -0.07). Some responses to habitat factors were shared, notably the negative effect of elevation and the positive effect of climber coverage. These results are important for conservation science and practice because: the among-populations negative responses to anthropogenic disturbance provides a foundation for development of conservation plans that hold at the landscape scale, which is a comprehensive and cost-efficient approach; the among-species consistency in responses suggests conservation measures may be generalized at the guild level, which is especially relevant given the functional importance of primates in tropical rainforests; and the greater primate densities in areas at low elevation, which are closer to human settlements, point to specific management recommendations, such as the creation of buffer zones and prioritization of areas for protection.

Efectos de la Perturbación Antropogénica sobre la Densidad de Primates a Escala de Paisaje Resumen Se requieren estimaciones correctas del tamaño de las poblaciones de animales amenazados para evaluar el estado y la vulnerabilidad de las especies y así planear su conservación. Sin embargo, la estimación de la densidad es usualmente complicada y demanda recursos, así que los investigadores con frecuencia recolectan la información a escala local, a pesar de que la presión antropogénica suele tener efectos a nivel del paisaje; por ejemplo, la pérdida del hábitat y la fragmentación. Aplicamos un muestro jerárquico a distancia (HDS, en inglés) para contar datos por transecto y determinar el efecto de los factores del hábitat y los factores antropogénicos sobre la densidad de tres especies de primates arbóreos en un paisaje de 19,000 km2 en las montañas de Udzungwa en Tanzania. Desarrollamos una novedosa extensión multiregión de HDS que nos permitió modelar en conjunto la densidad y la facilidad de detección en los bosques sin perder información específica del sitio. Para todas las especies, el efecto de la perturbación antropogénica sobre la densidad fue abrumadoramente negativa entre las metapoblaciones: −0.63 para el colobo angoleño (Colobus angolensis palliatus) (95% bayesiano CI de −1.03 a −0.27), −0.54 para el colobo rojo de Udzungwa (Procolobus gordonorum) (de −0.89 a −0.22), y −0.33 para el mono de Syke (Cercopithecus mitis monoides) (de −0.63 a −0.07). Los monos compartieron algunas respuestas a los factores de hábitat, notoriamente los efectos negativos de la elevación y el efecto positivo de la cobertura de plantas trepadoras. Estos resultados son importantes para la ciencia y práctica de la conservación ya que: las respuestas negativas a las perturbaciones antropogénicas entre las poblaciones proporcionan los cimientos para el desarrollo de planes de conservación que serán válidos a nivel de paisaje, la cual es una estrategia completa y rentable; la consistencia de las respuestas entre las especies sugiere que las medidas de conservación pueden estar generalizadas a nivel de gremio, lo cual es de suma relevancia dada la importancia funcional de los primates en los bosques tropicales; y la densidad mayor de primates en áreas con elevación baja, las cuales están próximas a los asentamientos humanos, señalan hacia recomendaciones específicas de manejo, como la creación de zonas de amortiguamiento y la priorización de áreas para proteger.

Biofluorescence as a survey tool for cryptic marine species.

As ecosystems come under increasing anthropogenic pressure, rare species face the highest risk of extinction. Paradoxically, data necessary to evaluate the conservation status of rare species are often lacking because of the challenges of detecting species with low abundance. One group of fishes subject to this undersampling bias are those with cryptic body patterns. Twenty-one percent of cryptic fish species assessed for their extinction risk (International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN]) are data deficient. We developed a nondestructive method for surveying cryptically patterned marine fishes based on the presence of biofluorescence (underwater biofluorescence census, UBC). Blue LED torches were used to investigate how widespread biofluorescence was in cryptic reef fishes in the Coral Triangle region. The effectiveness of UBC to generate abundance data was tested on a data-deficient pygmy seahorse species (Hippocampus bargibanti) and compared with data obtained from standard underwater visual census (UVC) surveys. We recorded 95 reef fish species displaying biofluorescence, 73 of which had not been previously described as biofluorescent. Of those fish with cryptic patterns, 87% were biofluorescent compared with 9% for noncryptic fishes. The probability of species displaying biofluorescence was 70.9 times greater for cryptic species than for noncryptic species. Almost twice the number of H. bargibanti was counted using the UBC compared with UVC. For 2 triplefin species (Ucla xenogrammus, Enneapterygius tutuilae), the abundance detected with UBC was triple that detected with UVC. The UBC method was effective at finding cryptic species that would otherwise be difficult to detect and thus will reduce interobserver variability inherent to UVC surveys. Biofluorescence is ubiquitous in cryptic fishes, making this method applicable across a wide range of species. Data collected using UBC could be used with multiple IUCN criteria to assess the extinction risk of cryptic species. Adopting this technique will enhance researchers' ability to survey cryptic species and facilitate management and conservation of cryptic marine species.

Use of opportunistic sightings and expert knowledge to predict and compare Whooping Crane stopover habitat.

Predicting a species' distribution can be helpful for evaluating management actions such as critical habitat designations under the U.S. Endangered Species Act or habitat acquisition and rehabilitation. Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) are one of the rarest birds in the world, and conservation and management of habitat is required to ensure their survival. We developed a species distribution model (SDM) that could be used to inform habitat management actions for Whooping Cranes within the state of Nebraska (U.S.A.). We collated 407 opportunistic Whooping Crane group records reported from 1988 to 2012. Most records of Whooping Cranes were contributed by the public; therefore, developing an SDM that accounted for sampling bias was essential because observations at some migration stopover locations may be under represented. An auxiliary data set, required to explore the influence of sampling bias, was derived with expert elicitation. Using our SDM, we compared an intensively managed area in the Central Platte River Valley with the Niobrara National Scenic River in northern Nebraska. Our results suggest, during the peak of migration, Whooping Crane abundance was 262.2 (90% CI 40.2-3144.2) times higher per unit area in the Central Platte River Valley relative to the Niobrara National Scenic River. Although we compared only 2 areas, our model could be used to evaluate any region within the state of Nebraska. Furthermore, our expert-informed modeling approach could be applied to opportunistic presence-only data when sampling bias is a concern and expert knowledge is available.

Improving malaria treatment and prevention in India by aiding district managers to manage their programmes with local information: a trial assessing the impact of Lot Quality Assurance Sampling on programme outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: This paper reports the first trial of Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) assessing associations between access to LQAS data and subsequent improvements in district programming. This trial concerns India's approach to addressing an increase in malaria-attributable deaths by training community health workers to diagnose, treat and prevent malaria, while using LQAS to monitor sub-district performance and make programme improvements. METHODS: The Ministry of Health introduced LQAS into four matched high malaria burden districts (Annual Parasite Incidence >5) (N > 5 million). In each sub-district, we sampled four populations in three 6-monthly surveys: households, children <5 years, people with fever in the last 2 weeks and community health workers. In three districts, trained local staff collected, analysed and used data for programme management; in one control district, non-local staff collected data and did not disseminate results. For eight indicators, we calculated the change in proportion from survey one to three and used a Difference-in-Differences test to compare the relative change between intervention and control districts. RESULTS: Coverage increased from survey one to three for 24 of 32 comparisons. Difference-in-Differences tests revealed that intervention districts exhibited significantly greater change in four of six vertical strategies (insecticide treated bed-nets and indoor residual spraying), one of six treatment-seeking behaviours and four of 12 health worker capacity indicators. The control district displayed greater improvement than two intervention districts for one health worker capacity indicator. One district with poor management did not improve. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, LQAS results appeared to support district managers to increase coverage in underperforming areas, especially for vertical strategies in the presence of diligent managers.

Assessing the quality of care in a new nation: South Sudan's first national health facility assessment.

OBJECTIVES: We adapted a rapid quality of care monitoring method to a fragile state with two aims: to assess the delivery of child health services in South Sudan at the time of independence and to strengthen local capacity to perform regular rapid health facility assessments. METHODS: Using a two-stage lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) design, we conducted a national cross-sectional survey among 156 randomly selected health facilities in 10 states. In each of these facilities, we obtained information on a range of access, input, process and performance indicators during structured interviews and observations. RESULTS: Quality of care was poor with all states failing to achieve the 80% target for 14 of 19 indicators. For example, only 12% of facilities were classified as acceptable for their adequate utilisation by the population for sick-child consultations, 16% for staffing, 3% for having infection control supplies available and 0% for having all child care guidelines. Health worker performance was categorised as acceptable in only 6% of cases related to sick-child assessments, 38% related to medical treatment for the given diagnosis and 33% related to patient counselling on how to administer the prescribed drugs. Best performance was recorded for availability of in-service training and supervision, for seven and ten states, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Despite ongoing instability, the Ministry of Health developed capacity to use LQAS for measuring quality of care nationally and state-by-state, which will support efficient and equitable resource allocation. Overall, our data revealed a desperate need for improving the quality of care in all states.

Using genetic profiles of African forest elephants to infer population structure, movements, and habitat use in a conservation and development landscape in Gabon.

Conservation of wide-ranging species, such as the African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis), depends on fully protected areas and multiple-use areas (MUA) that provide habitat connectivity. In the Gamba Complex of Protected Areas in Gabon, which includes 2 national parks separated by a MUA containing energy and forestry concessions, we studied forest elephants to evaluate the importance of the MUA to wide-ranging species. We extracted DNA from elephant dung samples and used genetic information to identify over 500 individuals in the MUA and the parks. We then examined patterns of nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial control-region sequences to infer population structure, movement patterns, and habitat use by age and sex. Population structure was weak but significant, and differentiation was more pronounced during the wet season. Within the MUA, males were more strongly associated with open habitats, such as wetlands and savannas, than females during the dry season. Many of the movements detected within and between seasons involved the wetlands and bordering lagoons. Our results suggest that the MUA provides year-round habitat for some elephants and additional habitat for others whose primary range is in the parks. With the continuing loss of roadless wilderness areas in Central Africa, well-managed MUAs will likely be important to the conservation of wide-ranging species.

Spatially explicit power analyses for occupancy-based monitoring of wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains.

Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy-based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy-based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per-visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species.

Demographic connectivity for ursid populations at wildlife crossing structures in Banff National Park.

Wildlife crossing structures are one solution to mitigating the fragmentation of wildlife populations caused by roads, but their effectiveness in providing connectivity has only been superficially evaluated. Hundreds of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (Ursus americanus) passages through under and overpasses have been recorded in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. However, the ability of crossing structures to allow individual and population-level movements across road networks remains unknown. In April 2006, we initiated a 3-year investigation into whether crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for grizzly and black bears in Banff National Park. We collected hair with multiple noninvasive methods to obtain genetic samples from grizzly and black bears around the Bow Valley. Our objectives were to determine the number of male and female grizzly and black bears that use crossing structures; examine spatial and temporal patterns of crossings; and estimate the proportions of grizzly and black bear populations in the Bow Valley that use crossing structures. Fifteen grizzly (7 female, 8 male) and 17 black bears (8 female, 9 male) used wildlife crossing structures. The number of individuals detected at wildlife crossing structures was highly correlated with the number of passages in space and time. Grizzly bears used open crossing structures (e.g., overpasses) more often than constricted crossings (e.g., culverts). Peak use of crossing structures for both bear species occurred in July, when high rates of foraging activity coincide with mating season. We compared the number of bears that used crossings with estimates of population abundance from a related study and determined that substantial percentages of grizzly (15.0% in 2006, 19.8% in 2008) and black bear (17.6% in 2006, 11.0% in 2008) populations used crossing structures. On the basis of our results, we concluded wildlife crossing structures provide demographic connectivity for bear populations in Banff National Park.

Is 25Hz enough to accurately measure a dynamic change in the ocular accommodation?

BACKGROUND: Accommodation is often recorded at a low sampling rate using devices such as autorefractors that are designed to measure the static refractive error. It is therefore important to determine if that resolution is sufficient to accurately measure the dynamic properties of accommodation. The current study provides both theoretical and empirical evidence on the ideal sampling rate necessary to measure a dynamic response. METHODS: Accommodative and disaccommodative step stimuli ranging from 1-3D (1D steps) were presented using a Badal optical system. Responses from 12 children (8-13 years) and 6 adults (20-35 years) were recorded using a dynamic photorefractor (DPR). Fast Fourier transformation was applied to the unsmoothed dynamic responses including position, velocity and acceleration. Also, velocity and acceleration main sequence (MS) characteristics were compared between three photorefractor conditions on 3 subjects. RESULTS: The Nyquist sampling limit necessary to accurately estimate position, velocity and acceleration was at least 5, 10 and 70Hz, respectively. Peak velocity and acceleration were significantly underestimated at a lower rate (p<0.5). However, the slope of MS remained invariant with sampling rate (p>0.5). CONCLUSION: Contrary to the previous findings, a dynamic accommodative response exhibited frequencies larger than 10Hz. Stimulus direction and amplitude had no influence on the frequencies present in the dynamic response. Peak velocity and acceleration can be significantly underestimated when sampled at a lower rate. Taken as a whole, low sampling rate instruments can accurately estimate static accommodation, however, caution needs to be exercised when using them for dynamic accommodation.

Inquéritos nacionais de saúde: visão geral sobre técnicas de amostragem e dados coletados por desenhos complexos / Encuestas nacionales de salud: descripción general de las técnicas de muestreo y los datos recopilados por diseños complejos / National health surveys: overview of sampling techniques and data collected using complex designs

Abstract This article aimed to present an overview of national health surveys, sampling techniques, and components of statistical analysis of data collected using complex sampling designs. Briefly, surveys aimed at assessing the nutritional status of Brazilians and maternal and child health care were described. Surveys aimed at investigating access to and use of health services and funding, those aimed at surveillance of chronic noncommunicable diseases and associated behaviors, and those focused on risk practices regarding sexually transmitted infections were also addressed. Health surveys through social networks, including online networks, deserved specific attention in the study. The conclusion is that the development of health surveys in Brazil, in different areas and using different sampling methodologies, has contributed enormously to the advancement of knowledge and to the formulation of public policies aimed at the health and well-being of the Brazilian population.

Resumen Este estudio tuvo como objetivo presentar una descripción de las encuestas nacionales de salud, las técnicas de muestreo y los componentes del análisis estadístico de diseños de muestreo complejos. Brevemente, se describieron encuestas destinadas a evaluar el estado nutricional y la atención a la salud materno-infantil. También se abordaron las encuestas dirigidas a investigar el acceso y uso de los servicios de salud y el financiamiento, las dirigidas a la vigilancia de las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles y comportamientos asociados, y las enfocadas a las prácticas de riesgo para las infecciones de transmisión sexual. Las encuestas de salud a través de las redes sociales, incluidas las virtuales, merecieron atención específica en el estudio. Se concluye que el desarrollo de encuestas de salud en Brasil ha contribuido enormemente para el avance del conocimiento y para la formulación de políticas públicas dirigidas a la salud y el bienestar de la población brasileña.

Resumo O artigo teve por finalidade apresentar um panorama dos inquéritos nacionais de saúde, técnicas de amostragem e componentes da análise estatística de dados coletados por desenhos complexos de amostragem. Foram descritos, brevemente, os inquéritos dirigidos à avaliação do estado nutricional dos brasileiros e da atenção à saúde materno-infantil. Inquéritos voltados à investigação do acesso, utilização dos serviços e financiamento da saúde, aqueles dedicados à vigilância das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis e comportamentos associados e os focados nas práticas de risco às infecções sexualmente transmissíveis foram também abordados. As pesquisas de saúde por redes sociais, incluindo as virtuais, mereceram atenção específica. Conclui-se que o desenvolvimento de inquéritos de saúde no Brasil, em diferentes áreas e por distintas metodologias de amostragem, contribuiu enormemente para o avanço do conhecimento e a formulação de políticas públicas dirigidas à saúde e bem-estar da população brasileira.

Meta-análisis de la escala de capital intelectual: implicaciones para hacer frente a la pandemia del COVID-19

Introducción: la medición del capital intelectual como activo intangible se ha establecido a partir de una escala de seis dimensiones relacionada con formación, academia, laboral, profesional, sindical y organizativa. La pandemia ha generado estudios que muestran diferencias significativas entre estas dimensiones, abriendo la discusión sobre la validez metaanalítica. Objetivo: realizar una revisión documental, sistemática y metaanalítica, con una muestra de artículos publicados entre 2014 y 2021 en revistas indexadas en repositorios internacionales. Materiales y métodos: se realizó un estudio documental, sistemático y metaanalítico sobre una muestra de artículos publicados en repositorios internacionales en los últimos dos años. Se utilizó la Escala de Capital Intelectual, considerando sus dimensiones reportadas en la literatura. Resultados: se estableció la estructura y los umbrales de los efectos aleatorios, calculados mediante la ecuación para establecer el parámetro delta, considerando sus intervalos de confianza para la corrección de errores de muestreo y estimación, así como las diferencias entre grupos. Conclusión: se recomienda extender la revisión de la literatura hasta agosto de 2021, para poder contrastar ambas revisiones, y establecer así la validez metaanalítica de la escala, y discutir sus implicaciones en la era COVID-19.

Introduction: the measurement of intellectual capital as an intangible asset has been established from a scale of six dimensions related to training, academia; labor, professional, union, and organizational. The pandemic has generated studies that show significant differences between these dimensions, opening the discussion on meta-analytic validity. Objective: to carry out a documentary, systematic and meta-analytical review with a sample of articles published from 2014 to 2021 in journals indexed in international repositories. Materials and methods: a documentary, systematic and meta-analytical study was carried out on a sample of articles published in international repositories in the last two years. The Intellectual Capital Scale was used, considering its dimensions reported in the literature. Results: the structure and thresholds of the random effects were established, calculated by means of the equation to establish the delta parameter, considering their confidence intervals for correction of sampling and estimation errors, as well as differences between groups. Conclusion: it is recommended to extend the review of the literature until August 2021 in order to be able to contrast both reviews to establish the meta-analytic validity of the scale and discuss its implications in the COVID-19 era.

Estudios de corte transversal: un diseño de investigación a considerar en ciencias morfológicas / Cross section studies: a research design to consider in morphological sciences

Los estudios de corte transversal (ECT) inician en la década de los 40 en países Europeos. Los ECT corresponden a investigaciones de tipo observacional que permiten estudiar prevalencia de enfermedad, determinar asociación entre variables y el desarrollo de un efecto de interés, conocer propiedades de una prueba diagnóstica, y censar poblaciones; describiendo las características de una población en un momento y lugar determinado. Esto implica, que no se requieren periodos de seguimiento, que no son prospectivos ni retrospectivos; características que permiten que sean más baratos y fáciles de realizar en relación a los estudios longitudinales. Por otro lado, al ser de carácter descriptivo sirven como insumo y evidencia preliminar para estudios de mayor complejidad metodológica, como estudios de cohortes. Sin embargo, tienen limitantes y sesgos que deben ser considerados por los investigadores. El objetivo de este manuscrito fue generar un documento de estudio para revisar características esenciales, fortalezas y debilidades; discutir cuestiones metodológicas de los ECT en ciencias de la salud; y proporcionar algunos ejemplos obtenidos de la literatura, para mejor comprensión del diseño.

SUMMARY: Cross-sectional studies (CSS) began European countries in the 1940s in. The CSSs correspond to observational-type investigations that allow studying the prevalence of disease, determining the association between variables and the development of an effect of interest, discovering the properties of a diagnostic test, and censusing populations, describing the characteristics of a population at a given time and place. This implies that follow-up periods are not required, and that they are neither prospective nor retrospective. These characteristics allow them to be cheaper and easier to perform in relation to longitudinal studies. On the other hand, being descriptive in nature, they serve as input and preliminary evidence for studies of greater methodological complexity, such as cohort studies. However, they have limitations and biases that must be considered by researchers. The aim of this manuscript was to generate a study document to review essential characteristics, strengths and weaknesses; discuss methodological issues of ECT in health sciences; and provide some examples obtained from the literature, for a better understanding of the design.

Outpatient Dermatological Diagnoses in Spain: Results From the National DIADERM Random Sampling Project. / Análisis de los diagnósticos realizados en la actividad ambulatoria dermatológica en España: muestreo aleatorio nacional DIADERM.

INTRODUCTION: Dermatologists perform most of their work in outpatient or private clinics. Data on the diagnoses made by dermatologists in these settings are lacking, however, as outpatient activity, unlike hospital activity, is difficult to code. The aim of this study was to analyze the diagnoses made by members of the Spanish Academy of Dermatology and Venereology (AEDV) at dermatology clinics in Spain. METHODOLOGY: We selected a random sample of AEDV dermatologists drawn from the AEDV list and stratified by geographic area. The selected dermatologists received instructions on how to collect the data required. Each participant recorded the diagnosis reached and other data for patients seen during 2 specified periods: 3 days in January and 3 days in May. The diagnoses were subsequently coded by a dermatologist expert in applying the International Classification of Diseases (10th revision). In view of the complex nature of the sample, data were analyzed with standard error and finite population corrections. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 124 dermatologists. Of these, 65% participated in the first phase of the study and 59% in the second. An estimated 621 562 patients (95% CI, 368 130-874 995) visit the dermatologist every month in Spain. This is the equivalent of 28 (25-31) patients per day per clinic. The most common diagnosis recorded was actinic keratosis, followed by basal cell carcinoma and melanocytic nevus. The vast majority of visits took place at the clinic, but 1% of patients (0.3%-3%) were assessed using teledermatology. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study in Spain to analyze diagnoses made by AEDV members at outpatient dermatology clinics. Our findings show a high volume of activity and will be useful for guiding health care planning, resource use, and future studies.