Population trends are more strongly linked to environmental change and species traits in birds than mammals.

Changes in land use and climate directly impact species populations. Species with divergent characteristics may respond differently to these changes. Therefore, understanding species' responses to environmental changes is fundamental for alleviating biodiversity loss. However, the relationships between land use changes, climate changes, species' intrinsic traits and population changes at different spatial scales have not been tested. In this study, we analysed the effects of land use and climate changes from different time periods and species traits on the population change rates of 2195 bird and mammal populations in 577 species recorded in the Living Planet Database at global, tropical and temperate scales. We hypothesized that both bird and mammal populations will decline owing to climate and land use changes, especially phylogenetically young and small-bodied species. We found that bird population trends were more closely related to environmental changes and phylogenetic age than those of mammals at global and temperate scales. Mammal population trends were not significantly correlated with land use or climate changes but were with longevity at global and temperate scales. Given the divergent responses of bird and mammal populations to these explanatory variables, different conservation strategies should be considered for these taxa and for different regions.

Substituting space for time: Bird responses to forest loss in space provide a general picture of responses over time.

The practice of space-for-time substitution assumes that the responses of species or communities to land-use change over space represents how they will respond to that same change over time. Space-for-time substitution is commonly used in both ecology and conservation, but whether the assumption produces reliable insights remains inconclusive. Here, we tested space-for-time substitution using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Global Forest Change (GFC) to compare the effects of landscape-scale forest cover on bird richness and abundance over time and space, for 25 space-time comparisons. Each comparison consisted of a landscape that experienced at least 20% forest loss over 19 years (temporal site) and a set of 15-19 landscapes (spatial sites) that represented the same forest cover gradient over space in 2019 as experienced over time in their corresponding temporal site. Across the 25 comparisons, the observed responses of forest and open-habitat birds to forest cover over time generally aligned with their responses to forest cover over space, but with comparatively higher variability in the magnitude and direction of effect across the 25 temporal slopes than across the 25 spatial slopes. On average, the mean differences between the spatial and temporal slopes across the 25 space-time comparisons frequently overlapped with zero, suggesting that the spatial slopes are generally informative of the temporal slopes. However, we observed high variability around these mean differences, indicating that a single spatial slope is not strongly predictive of its corresponding temporal slope. We suggest that our results may be explained by annual variability in other relevant environmental factors that combine to produce complex effects on population abundances over time that are not easily captured by snapshots in space. While not being a 1:1 proxy, measuring bird responses to changes in habitat amount in space provides an idea on how birds might be expected to eventually equilibrate to similar changes in habitat amount over time. Further, analyses such as this could be potentially used to screen for cases of regional space-time mismatches where population-limiting factors other than habitat could be playing a more important role in the population trends observed there.

Giant pandas are losing their edge: Population trend and distribution dynamic drivers of the giant panda.

Comprehending the population trend and understanding the distribution range dynamics of species are necessary for global species protection. Recognizing what causes dynamic distribution change is crucial for identifying species' environmental preferences and formulating protection policies. Here, we studied the rear-edge population of the flagship species, giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to (1) assess their population trend using their distribution patterns, (2) evaluate their distribution dynamics change from the second (1988) to the third (2001) survey (2-3 Interval) and third to the fourth (2013) survey (3-4 Interval) using a machine learning algorithm (eXtremely Gradient Boosting), and (3) decode model results to identify driver factors in the first known use of SHapley Additive exPlanations. Our results showed that the population trends in Liangshan Mountains were worst in the second survey (k = 1.050), improved by the third survey (k = 0.97), but deteriorated by the fourth survey (k = 0.996), which indicates a worrying population future. We found that precipitation had the most significant influence on distribution dynamics among several potential environmental factors, showing a negative correlation between precipitation and giant panda expansion. We recommend that further research is needed to understand the microenvironment and animal distribution dynamics. We provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of giant panda distribution, highlighting novel focal points for ecological research on this species. Our study offers theoretical underpinnings that could inform the formulation of more effective conservation policies. Also, we emphasize the uniqueness and importance of the Liangshan Mountains giant pandas as the rear-edge population, which is at a high risk of population extinction.

Temperature niche composition change inside and outside protected areas under climate warming.

Conservation of biodiversity relies heavily on protected areas but their role and effectiveness under a warming climate is still debated. We estimated the climate-driven changes in the temperature niche compositions of bird communities inside and outside protected areas in southern Canada. We hypothesized that communities inside protected areas include a higher proportion of cold-dwelling species than communities outside protected areas. We also hypothesized that communities shift to warm-dwelling species more slowly inside protected areas than outside. To study community changes, we used large-scale and long-term (1997-2019) data from the Breeding Bird Survey of Canada. To describe the temperature niche compositions of bird communities, we calculated the community temperature index (CTI) annually for each community inside and outside protected areas. Generally, warm-dwelling species dominated communities with high CTI values. We modeled temporal changes in CTI as a function of protection status with linear mixed-effect models. We also determined which species contributed most to the temporal changes in CTI with a jackknife approach. As anticipated, CTI was lower inside protected areas than outside. However, contrary to our expectation, CTI increased faster over time inside than outside protected areas and warm-dwelling species contributed most to CTI change inside protected areas. These results highlight the ubiquitous impacts of climate warming. Currently, protected areas can aid cold-dwelling species by providing habitat, but as the climate warms, the communities' temperature compositions inside protected areas quickly begin to resemble those outside protected areas, suggesting that protected areas delay the impacts of climate warming on cold-dwelling species.

Cambios en la composición del nicho térmico dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas bajo el calentamiento climático Resumen La conservación de la biodiversidad depende mucho de las áreas protegidas, aunque todavía se debate su papel y efectividad bajo el calentamiento climático. Estimamos los cambios causados por el clima en la composición de los nichos térmicos de las comunidades de aves dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas al sur de Canadá. Supusimos que las comunidades dentro de las áreas protegidas incluyen una proporción mayor de especies de zonas frías que las comunidades fuera de las áreas protegidas. También supusimos que las comunidades cambian a especies de zonas cálidas de forma más lenta dentro de las áreas protegidas que fuera de ellas. Usamos datos de gran escala y largo plazo (1997-2019) del Censo de Aves Reproductoras de Canadá para estudiar los cambios comunitarios. Calculamos el índice anual de temperatura comunitaria (ITC) para cada comunidad dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas para describir las composiciones del nicho térmico de las comunidades de aves. En general, las especies de zonas cálidas dominaron las comunidades con valores altos del ITC. Simulamos los cambios temporales en el ITC como función del estado de protección mediante modelos lineales de efecto mixto. También determinamos cuáles especies contribuyen más a los cambios temporales en el ITC con un enfoque jackknife. Como lo anticipamos, el ITC fue menor dentro de las áreas protegidas que afuera. Sin embargo, contrario a nuestra hipótesis, el ITC incrementó más rápido con el tiempo dentro de las áreas protegidas y las especies de zonas cálidas contribuyeron más al cambio en el ITC también dentro de las áreas protegidas. Estos resultados resaltan el impacto universal del calentamiento climático. Actualmente, las áreas protegidas pueden auxiliar a las especies de zonas frías al proporcionarles hábitats, pero conforme la temperatura aumenta, las composiciones térmicas de las comunidades dentro de las áreas protegidas se asemejan rápidamente a aquellas fuera de las áreas protegidas, lo que sugiere que las áreas protegidas retrasan el impacto del calentamiento climático sobre las especies de zonas frías.

Unveiling the rise of non-native fishes in eastern alpine mountain rivers: Population trends and implications.

Insufficient knowledge about the occurrence and spread of non-native fish in mountain regions has impeded effective management strategies worldwide. To address this gap, this study analysed over 1300 electrofishing surveys across 650 sites, encompassing a vast 7400 km2 area in the Eastern Alps. The primary objectives were to quantify the occurrence of non-native species and predict their spread in different river types. Furthermore, the study estimated population sizes and biomass trends for over 150 sites that were surveyed multiple times between 2000 and 2020. Out of the 42 fish species in the study region, 11 were identified as non-native. Notably, two invasive species of Union concern, Lepomis gibbosus and Pseudorasbora parva, increased their population sizes by 8% and 9% per year, over the past decades, supposedly supported by increasing water temperatures. Among the non-native species relevant for recreational fishing, Oncorhynchus mykiss populations showed a significant increase of approximately 7% per year, Salmo trutta populations remained stable, and Salvelinus fontinalis populations experienced a notable decline of approximately 7.4% per year. These varying population trends may be attributed to disparities in stocking intensities, with S. fontinalis receiving minimal stocking compared to the other species. This study revealed that non-native and invasive fish species are a relevant part of fish communities in mountain rivers. Non-salmonid non-natives thrive in warm rivers at lower elevations, whereas salmonid non-natives consolidate in steeper habitats. Because rising temperatures in mountain rivers will accelerate the spread and growth of these species, this first quantification of the current extent will improve fish management strategies in mountainous areas.

Climate-driven divergent long-term trends of forest beetles in Japan.

Concerning declines in insect populations have been reported from Europe and the United States, yet there are gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of insect trends and their distribution across the world. We report on our analysis of a spatially extensive, 14-year study of ground-dwelling beetles in four natural forest biomes spanning Japan's entire latitudinal range (3000 km). Beetle species richness, abundance and biomass declined in evergreen coniferous forests but increased in broadleaf-coniferous mixed forests. Further, beetles in evergreen coniferous forests responded negatively to increased temperature and precipitation anomalies, which have both risen over the study's timespan. These significant changes parallel reports of climate-driven changes in forest tree species, providing further evidence that climate change is altering forest ecosystems fundamentally. Given the enormous biodiversity and ecosystem services that forests support globally, the implications for biodiversity change resulting from climate change could be profound.

Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories.

Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics ( ToE pop ). We identify the dependence of ToE pop on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on ToE pop . We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research.

More winners than losers over 12 years of monitoring tiger moths (Erebidae: Arctiinae) on Barro Colorado Island, Panama.

Understanding the causes and consequences of insect declines has become an important goal in ecology, particularly in the tropics, where most terrestrial diversity exists. Over the past 12 years, the ForestGEO Arthropod Initiative has systematically monitored multiple insect groups on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, providing baseline data for assessing long-term population trends. Here, we estimate the rates of change in abundance among 96 tiger moth species on BCI. Population trends of most species were stable (n = 20) or increasing (n = 62), with few (n = 14) declining species. Our analysis of morphological and climatic sensitivity traits associated with population trends shows that species-specific responses to climate were most strongly linked with trends. Specifically, tiger moth species that are more abundant in warmer and wetter years are more likely to show population increases. Our study contrasts with recent findings indicating insect decline in tropical and temperate regions. These results highlight the significant role of biotic responses to climate in determining long-term population trends and suggest that future climate changes are likely to impact tropical insect communities.

Effects of aquaculture on the maintenance of waterbird populations.

The global aquaculture industry has expanded rapidly and is increasingly important for maintaining food security while also providing alternative artificial habitats for many waterbirds. Clarifying how waterbirds use aquafarms and how aquafarm use affects waterbird population maintenance can be useful for improving management of the artificial landscape that can also provide waterbird habitat. Here, we investigated aquafarm use by waterbirds in China, the world's largest producer of aquaculture products, supported by literature review and questionnaire survey. We used Bayesian phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models to analyze the relationship between the degree of aquafarm use and population trends of waterbirds. The results showed that 69% of waterbird species in China have been recorded at aquafarms. Approximately one-quarter of all waterbird species and about the same proportion of threatened species were found to forage at aquafarms, consuming either cultured aquatic products or other food types. In general, species with a high degree of aquafarm use were unlikely to exhibit a population decline over the past two decades, when rapid loss of natural habitats occurred in China. This relationship was not detected in threatened species, despite there being no significant difference in the degree of aquafarm use between threatened and non-threatened species. Our study suggests that the large and expanding aquaculture industry is important for maintaining waterbird populations in China. However, aquafarms are not a replacement for natural habitats, because threatened species benefit less from aquafarm use. Given that aquafarms often come at the expense of natural wetlands, the degree to which aquafarms compensate for natural habitat loss probably depends on the quality of aquafarm habitat. We recommend an integrated ecological and economic analysis for formulating management policies that help conserve wildlife within the constraints and opportunities associated with maintaining human livelihoods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Assessing conservation status with extensive but low-resolution data: Application of frequentist and Bayesian models to endangered Athabasca River rainbow trout.

Use of extensive but low-resolution abundance data is common in the assessment of species at-risk status based on quantitative decline criteria under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and national endangered species legislation. Such data can be problematic for 3 reasons. First, statistical power to reject the null hypothesis of no change is often low because of small sample size and high sampling uncertainty leading to a high frequency of type II errors. Second, range-wide assessments composed of multiple site-specific observations do not effectively weight site-specific trends into global trends. Third, uncertainty in site-specific temporal trends and relative abundance are not propagated at the appropriate spatial scale. A common result is the propensity to underestimate the magnitude of declines and therefore fail to identify the appropriate at-risk status for a species. We used 3 statistical approaches, from simple to more complex, to estimate temporal decline rates for a designatable unit (DU) of rainbow trout in the Athabasca River watershed in western Canada. This DU is considered a native species for purposes of listing because of its genetic composition characterized as >0.95 indigenous origin in the face of continuing introgressive hybridization with introduced populations in the watershed. Analysis of abundance trends from 57 time series with a fixed-effects model identified 33 sites with negative trends, but only 2 were statistically significant. By contrast, a hierarchical linear mixed model weighted by site-specific abundance provided a DU-wide decline estimate of 16.4% per year and a 3-generation decline of 93.2%. A hierarchical Bayesian mixed model yielded a similar 3-generation decline trend of 91.3% and the posterior distribution showed that the estimate had a >99% probability of exceeding thresholds for an endangered listing. We conclude that the Bayesian approach was the most useful because it provided a probabilistic statement of threshold exceedance in support of an at-risk status recommendation.

El uso de datos extensivos, pero de baja resolución, de la abundancia es una práctica común en la evaluación del estado de riesgo de una especie con base en los criterios cuantitativos de declinación establecidos por la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) y la legislación nacional sobre especies en peligro extinción. Dicha información puede ser problemática por tres razones: primero, el poder estadístico para rechazar la hipótesis nula de ningún cambio es frecuentemente bajo debido a un tamaño pequeño de la muestra y a la elevada incertidumbre del muestreo, lo que resulta en una frecuencia elevada de errores de tipo II; segundo, las evaluaciones de amplia variedad compuestas de varias observaciones específicas de sitio no sopesan efectivamente las tendencias específicas de sitio dentro de las tendencias globales; y tercero, la incertidumbre en las tendencias temporales específicas de sitio y en la abundancia relativa no se propagan a la escala espacial apropiada. Un resultado común del uso de esta información es la propensión a subestimar la magnitud de las declinaciones, y por lo tanto equivocarse en la identificación del estado de riesgo apropiado para la especie. Usamos tres estrategias estadísticas, de simples a más complejas, para estimar las tasas de declinación temporal para una unidad designable (UD) de trucha arcoíris en la cuenca del río Athabasca al oeste de Canadá. Esta UD es considerada una especie nativa por razones de listado debido a su composición genética, caracterizada como >0-95 de origen nativo de frente a la continua hibridación introgresiva con poblaciones introducidas a la cuenca. El análisis de las tendencias de abundancia de 57 series de tiempo con un modelo de efectos fijos identificó 33 sitios con tendencias negativas, pero sólo dos fueron estadísticamente significativas. En contraste, un modelo lineal mixto de jerarquías sopesado por abundancia específica de sitio proporcionó una estimación de declinación en toda la UD de 16.4% año−1 y una declinación a tres generaciones de 93.2%. Un modelo bayesiano de jerarquías produjo una tendencia de declinación a tres generaciones de 91.3% y la distribución posterior mostró que el estimado tuvo una probabilidad >99% de exceder los umbrales para la categorización como especie en peligro. Concluimos que la estrategia bayesiana fue la más útil porque proporcionó una afirmación probabilística de la superación del umbral a favor de una recomendación de categorizar el estado como en riesgo.

Sea ice extent and phenology influence breeding of high-Arctic seabirds: 4 decades of monitoring in Nunavut, Canada.

Seabirds breeding in the high Arctic contend with variable annual sea ice conditions, with important consequences depending on a species' unique reproductive and foraging ecology. We assessed the influence of sea ice extent and phenology on seabird breeding biology using monitoring data collected for northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis), glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), and thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) breeding at Prince Leopold Island, Nunavut, Canada over 4 decades. We expected that years of later sea ice break-up and greater ice cover around the colony would create greater challenges to foraging and could result in delayed nest initiation, decreased colony attendance, and lower nesting success, but with distinct responses from each species. We also tested for time-lagged effects of ice conditions, where sea ice in a given year could impact food availability or juvenile recruitment in later years. Ice conditions around the colony exhibited no significant overall temporal trends or changepoints over the past 50 years (1970-2021), while counts of kittiwakes and murres increased over the study period 1975-2013. No trends were evident in counts of fulmars or gulls or in egg-laying dates or nest success for any species. However, three species (all but glaucous gulls) exhibited unique responses between breeding metrics and sea ice, highlighting how breeding decisions and outcomes may differ among species under the same environmental conditions in a given year. Time-lagged effects were only detected for kittiwake nest counts, where the date of spring ice break-up around the colony was negatively associated with counts at a 5-year lag. Greater distances to open water were associated with lower colony attendance by fulmars and later nest initiation by kittiwakes and murres. Our analyses provide additional insights to effects of sea ice on high-Arctic seabird breeding ecology, which will be useful in predicting and planning for the complex effects of a changing climate and changing human pressures on this high-latitude ecosystem and for the management of high-Arctic marine-protected areas.

Declining population trends of European mountain birds.

Mountain areas often hold special species communities, and they are high on the list of conservation concern. Global warming and changes in human land use, such as grazing pressure and afforestation, have been suggested to be major threats for biodiversity in the mountain areas, affecting species abundance and causing distribution shifts towards mountaintops. Population shifts towards poles and mountaintops have been documented in several areas, indicating that climate change is one of the key drivers of species' distribution changes. Despite the high conservation concern, relatively little is known about the population trends of species in mountain areas due to low accessibility and difficult working conditions. Thanks to the recent improvement of bird monitoring schemes around Europe, we can here report a first account of population trends of 44 bird species from four major European mountain regions: Fennoscandia, UK upland, south-western (Iberia) and south-central mountains (Alps), covering 12 countries. Overall, the mountain bird species declined significantly (-7%) during 2002-2014, which is similar to the declining rate in common birds in Europe during the same period. Mountain specialists showed a significant -10% decline in population numbers. The slope for mountain generalists was also negative, but not significantly so. The slopes of specialists and generalists did not differ from each other. Fennoscandian and Iberian populations were on average declining, while in United Kingdom and Alps, trends were nonsignificant. Temperature change or migratory behaviour was not significantly associated with regional population trends of species. Alpine habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, and this is certainly one of the main drivers of mountain bird population trends. However, observed declines can also be partly linked with local land use practices. More efforts should be undertaken to identify the causes of decline and to increase conservation efforts for these populations.

Disentangling monitoring programs: design, analysis, and application considerations.

Monitoring programs are an essential tool for assessing and informing conservation efforts but the methods used to gather monitoring data directly influence results. This presents a challenge to conservation professionals when deciding on existing data to inform a given question. We illustrate the challenges of using monitoring data by comparing population trends from two large-scale avian monitoring programs in the western United States: the Breeding Bird Survey and Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions programs. We used publicly available data to compare trend trajectory between 2008 and 2015 for 148 species across Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming. Trends were inconsistent for 62% of the comparisons, with species having opposite trends in 21 cases. The inconsistencies found within our species comparisons reflect the inherent differences between program sampling design and analytical approach. Periodically revisiting how and why we monitor natural resources is necessary to advance conservation and management as the lessons learned from long-standing programs guide the development of more recent efforts. Our results emphasize that prior to management actions and policy decisions, managers must be aware of both the sampling design and appropriate ecological inference of any monitoring program.

[Symptoms of eating disorders in children and adolescents: frequencies and risk factors : Results from KiGGS Wave 2 and trends]. / Essstörungssymptome bei Kindern und Jugendlichen: Häufigkeiten und Risikofaktoren : Ergebnisse aus KiGGS Welle 2 und Trends.

Eating disorders are of high clinical and societal relevance. They are among the most common chronic mental illnesses in adulthood, but show a high incidence rate and peak of disease onset even in adolescence. Eating disorders are associated with far-reaching costs, such as acute or chronic comorbidities and educational or professional attainment.Thus, from a public mental health perspective, it is essential to explore symptoms and risk factors of eating disorders and to monitor prevalence rates across time to evaluate the relevance and effectiveness of prevention measures.In the present study, the recent prevalence of eating disorder symptoms among 11- to 17-year-old children and adolescents living in Germany is reported based on the Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS Wave 2, 2014-2017, N = 6599, 51.7% boys) and compared to the prevalence rates 10 years ago (KiGGS Baseline, 2003-2006, N = 6633, 51.5% boys). Moreover, we investigate a selection of risk factors for eating disorder symptoms.In KiGGS Wave 2, 19.8% of the children and adolescents showed eating disorder symptoms, a drop of 2.8 percentage points in the prevalence rate as compared to the KiGGS Baseline. The drop in the prevalence rate pertains to 11- to 13-year-old boys while the risk for 14- to 17-year-old adolescents and particularly among girls remained comparably high. Children and adolescents with emotional problems, low family cohesion, low self-efficacy, or who perceive themselves as too thick or thin, show an increased risk for eating disorder symptoms.Previous approaches and possible supplements for the prevention of eating disorders are discussed.

Evidence for the buffer effect operating in multiple species at a national scale.

A long-standing aim of ecologists is to understand the processes involved in regulating populations. One such mechanism is the buffer effect, where lower quality habitats are increasingly used as a species reaches higher population densities, with a resultant average reduction in fecundity and survival limiting population growth. Although the buffer effect has been demonstrated in populations of a number of species, a test of its importance in influencing population growth rates of multiple species across large spatial scales is lacking. Here, we use habitat-specific population trends for 85 bird species from long-term national monitoring data (the UK Breeding Bird Survey) to examine its generality. We find that both patterns of population change and changes in habitat preference are consistent with the predictions of the buffer effect, providing support for its widespread operation.

Predicting and setting conservation priorities for Bolivian mammals based on biological correlates of the risk of decline.

The recognition that growing proportions of species worldwide are endangered has led to the development of comparative analyses to elucidate why some species are more prone to extinction than others. Understanding factors and patterns of species vulnerability might provide an opportunity to develop proactive conservation strategies. Such comparative analyses are of special concern at national scales because this is the scale at which most conservation initiatives take place. We applied powerful ensemble learning models to test for biological correlates of the risk of decline among the Bolivian mammals to understand species vulnerability at a national scale and to predict the population trend for poorly known species. Risk of decline was nonrandomly distributed: higher proportions of large-sized taxa were under decline, whereas small-sized taxa were less vulnerable. Body mass, mode of life (i.e., aquatic, terrestrial, volant), geographic range size, litter size, home range, niche specialization, and reproductive potential were strongly associated with species vulnerability. Moreover, we found interacting and nonlinear effects of key traits on the risk of decline of mammals at a national scale. Our model predicted 35 data-deficient species in decline on the basis of their biological vulnerability, which should receive more attention in order to prevent their decline. Our results highlight the relevance of comparative analysis at relatively narrow geographical scales, reveal previously unknown factors related to species vulnerability, and offer species-by-species outcomes that can be used to identify targets for conservation, especially for insufficiently known species.

Rapid declines of large mammal populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that socioeconomic shocks strongly affect wildlife populations, but quantitative evidence is sparse. The collapse of socialism in Russia in 1991 caused a major socioeconomic shock, including a sharp increase in poverty. We analyzed population trends of 8 large mammals in Russia from 1981 to 2010 (i.e., before and after the collapse). We hypothesized that the collapse would first cause population declines, primarily due to overexploitation, and then population increases due to adaptation of wildlife to new environments following the collapse. The long-term Database of the Russian Federal Agency of Game Mammal Monitoring, consisting of up to 50,000 transects that are monitored annually, provided an exceptional data set for investigating these population trends. Three species showed strong declines in population growth rates in the decade following the collapse, while grey wolf (Canis lupus) increased by more than 150%. After 2000 some trends reversed. For example, roe deer (Capreolus spp.) abundance in 2010 was the highest of any period in our study. Likely reasons for the population declines in the 1990s include poaching and the erosion of wildlife protection enforcement. The rapid increase of the grey wolf populations is likely due to the cessation of governmental population control. In general, the widespread declines in wildlife populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union highlight the magnitude of the effects that socioeconomic shocks can have on wildlife populations and the possible need for special conservation efforts during such times.

Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China.

Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow-breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species' migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long-term monitoring data from across the species' range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3-94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species' range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow-breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial-scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species' populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia.

Declines in migrant shorebird populations from a winter-quarter perspective.

Many long-distance migrating shorebird (i.e., sandpipers, plovers, flamingos, oystercatchers) populations are declining. Although regular shorebird monitoring programs exist worldwide, most estimates of shorebird population trends and sizes are poor or nonexistent. We built a state-space model to estimate shorebird population trends. Compared with more commonly used methods of trend estimation, state-space models are more mechanistic, allow for the separation of observation and state process, and can easily accommodate multivariate time series and nonlinear trends. We fitted the model to count data collected from 1990 to 2013 on 18 common shorebirds at the 2 largest coastal wetlands in southern Africa, Sandwich Harbour (a relatively pristine bay) and Walvis Bay (an international harbor), Namibia. Four of the 12 long-distance migrant species declined since 1990: Ruddy Turnstone (Arenaria interpres), Little Stint (Calidris minuta), Common Ringed Plover (Charadrius hiaticula), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). Populations of resident species and short-distance migrants increased or were stable. Similar patterns at a key South African wetland suggest that shorebird populations migrating to southern Africa are declining in line with the global decline, but local conditions in southern Africa's largest wetlands are not contributing to these declines. State-space models provide estimates of population levels and trends and could be used widely to improve the current state of water bird estimates.

Population status and genetic assessment of mugger (Crocodylus palustris) in a tropical regulated river system in North India.

For rewilding the depleted crocodylian populations in India, a targeted 'one-species one area' based conservation approach was adopted in the early-1970s. Suitable habitats were identified and designated as protected areas, specifically targeted to recover a particular crocodylian species. A ~ 610 km stretch of Chambal River in the Ganga River Basin was declared as National Chambal Sanctuary to restore the 'Critically Endangered' gharial (Gavialis gangeticus), where active management of mugger (Crocodylus palustris) was discouraged. In the present study, we examined the population trends, occupancy, and genetic status of mugger by conducting population monitoring and genetic assessment to understand the status of potentially competitive mugger in the Sanctuary. Our finding suggests that the mugger population has notably increased and colonised the Sanctuary. We observed a moderate level of genetic diversity in the mugger, which was relatively higher compared to the gharial in the Sanctuary. The rapid colonization of ecological generalist mugger raises concerns about potential competition with ecological specialist gharial threatening its long-term sustainability. Considering the coexistence dynamics between the species, it is essential to extend adaptive management strategies for mugger to ensure successful recovery of gharial population in the Sanctuary.