Detailed Characteristics of Post-discharge Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The in-hospital survival of patients suffering from acute pancreatitis (AP) is 95% to 98%. However, there is growing evidence that patients discharged after AP may be at risk of serious morbidity and mortality. Here, we aimed to investigate the risk, causes, and predictors of the most severe consequence of the post-AP period: mortality. METHODS: A total of 2613 well-characterized patients from 25 centers were included and followed by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group between 2012 and 2021. A general and a hospital-based population was used as the control group. RESULTS: After an AP episode, patients have an approximately threefold higher incidence rate of mortality than the general population (0.0404 vs 0.0130 person-years). First-year mortality after discharge was almost double than in-hospital mortality (5.5% vs 3.5%), with 3.0% occurring in the first 90-day period. Age, comorbidities, and severity were the most significant independent risk factors for death following AP. Furthermore, multivariate analysis identified creatinine, glucose, and pleural fluid on admission as independent risk factors associated with post-discharge mortality. In the first 90-day period, cardiac failure and AP-related sepsis were among the main causes of death following discharge, and cancer-related cachexia and non-AP-related infection were the key causes in the later phase. CONCLUSION: Almost as many patients in our cohort died in the first 90-day period after discharge as during their hospital stay. Evaluation of cardiovascular status, follow-up of local complications, and cachexia-preventing oncological care should be an essential part of post-AP patient care. Future study protocols in AP must include at least a 90-day follow-up period after discharge.

Admission white blood cell count predicts post-discharge mortality in patients with acute aortic dissection: data from the MIMIC-III database.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation underlies both the pathogenesis and prognosis in patients with acute aortic dissection (AAD). This study aimed to assess the association of ICU admission of white blood cell count (WBCc) with post-discharge mortality in these patients. METHODS: Clinical data were extracted from the MIMIC-III V1.4 database. After adjusted to covariables, Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curve were performed to determine the relationship between WBCc on admission and post-discharge mortality (30-day, 90-day, 1-year and 5-year) in AAD patients. Subgroup analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used to test the performance of WBCc in predicting mortality in AAD patients. RESULTS: A total of 325 eligible patients were divided into 2 groups: normal-WBCc group (≤ 11 k/uL) and high-WBCc group (> 11 K/uL). In univariate Cox regression analysis, high WBCc was significant risk predictor of 30-day, 90-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality [hazard ratio (HR), 95% CI, P 2.58 1.36-4.91 0.004; 3.16 1.76-5.70 0.000; 2.74 1.57-4.79 0.000; 2.10 1.23-3.54 0.006]. After adjusting for age and other risks, high WBCc remained a significant predictor of 30-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality in AAD patients (HR, 95% CI, P 1.994 1.058-3.76 0.033; 2.118 1.175-3.819 0.013; 2.37 1.343-4.181 0.003). The area under ROC curve of WBCc for predicting 30-day, 90-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality were 0.69, 0.70, 0.66 and 0.61, respectively. The results from subgroups analysis showed that there was no interaction in most strata and patients who were younger than 69 years of age or had history of respiratory disease with an elevated WBCc had an excess risk of 30-day mortality (HR, 95% CI, P 3.18 1.41-7.14 0.005; 3.84 1.05-14.13 0.043). CONCLUSIONS: Higher than normal WBCc on admission may predict post-discharge mortality in patients with AAD.

Changes in the in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-discharge mortality in acutely admitted older patients: retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: to compare changes over time in the in-hospital mortality and the mortality from discharge to 30 days post-discharge for six highly prevalent discharge diagnoses in acutely admitted older patients as well as to assess the effect of separately analysing the in-hospital mortality and the mortality from discharge to 30 days post-discharge. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: retrospective analysis of Dutch hospital and mortality data collected between 2000 and 2010. SUBJECTS: the participants included 263,746 people, aged 65 years and above, who were acutely admitted for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia or hip fracture. METHODS: we compared changes in the in-hospital mortality and mortality from discharge to 30 days post-discharge in the Netherlands using a logistic- and a multinomial regression model. RESULTS: for all six diagnoses, the mortality from admission to 30 days post-discharge declined between 2000 and 2009. The decline ranged from a relative risk ratio (RRR) of 0.41 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.45] for AMI to 0.77 [0.73-0.82] for HF. In separate analyses, the in-hospital mortality decreased for all six diagnoses. The mortality from discharge to 30 days post-discharge in 2009 compared to 2000 depended on the diagnosis, and either declined, remained unchanged or increased. CONCLUSIONS: the decline in hospital mortality in acutely admitted older patients was largely attributable to the lower in-hospital mortality, while the change in the mortality from discharge to 30 days post-discharge depended on the diagnosis. Separately reporting the two rate estimates might be more informative than providing an overall hospital mortality rate.

Sleep disordered breathing and post-discharge mortality in patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalizations for heart failure are associated with a high post-discharge risk for mortality. Identification of modifiable predictors of post-discharge mortality during hospitalization may improve outcome. Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) is the most common co-morbidity in heart failure patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective cohort study of patients hospitalized with acute heart failure (AHF) in a single academic heart hospital. Between January 2007 and December 2010, all patients hospitalized with AHF who have left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 45% and were not already diagnosed with SDB were the target population. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Patients underwent in-hospital attended polygraphy testing for SDB and were followed for a median of 3 years post-discharge. Mortality was recorded using national and state vital statistics databases. RESULTS: During the study period, 1117 hospitalized AHF patients underwent successful sleep testing. Three hundred and forty-four patients (31%) had central sleep apnoea (CSA), 525(47%) patients had obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), and 248 had no or minimal SDB (nmSDB). Of those, 1096 patients survived to discharge and were included in the mortality analysis. Central sleep apnoea was independently associated with mortality. The multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for time to death for CSA vs. nmSDB was 1.61 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.4, P = 0.02). Obstructive sleep apnoea was also independently associated with mortality with a multivariable HR vs. nmSDB of 1.53 (CI: 1.1, 2.2, P = 0.02). The Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for the following covariates: LVEF, age, BMI, sex, race, creatinine, diabetes, type of cardiomyopathy, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, discharge systolic blood pressure <110, hypertension, discharge medications, initial length of stay, admission sodium, haemoglobin, and BUN. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest study to date to evaluate the effect of SDB on post-discharge mortality in patients with AHF. Newly diagnosed CSA and OSA during AHF hospitalization are independently associated with post-discharge mortality.

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Under-five mortality remains concentrated in resource-poor countries. Post-discharge mortality is becoming increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to overall child mortality. With a substantial recent expansion of research and novel data synthesis methods, this study aims to update the current evidence base by providing a more nuanced understanding of the burden and associated risk factors of pediatric post-discharge mortality after acute illness. Methods: Eligible studies published between January 1, 2017 and January 31, 2023, were retrieved using MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases. Studies published before 2017 were identified in a previous review and added to the total pool of studies. Only studies from countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index with a post-discharge observation period greater than seven days were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies. Studies were grouped by patient population, and 6-month post-discharge mortality rates were quantified by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, pooled risk factor estimates, and pooled post-discharge Kaplan-Meier survival curves. PROSPERO study registration: #CRD42022350975. Findings: Of 1963 articles screened, 42 eligible articles were identified and combined with 22 articles identified in the previous review, resulting in 64 total articles. These articles represented 46 unique patient cohorts and included a total of 105,560 children. For children admitted with a general acute illness, the pooled risk of mortality six months post-discharge was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.5%-5.4%, I2 = 94.2%, n = 11 studies, 34,457 children), and the pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.2%-7.7%, I2 = 98.7%, n = 12 studies, 63,307 children). Among disease subgroups, severe malnutrition (12.2%, 95% CI: 6.2%-19.7%, I2 = 98.2%, n = 10 studies, 7760 children) and severe anemia (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.2%-9.1%, I2 = 93.3%, n = 9 studies, 7806 children) demonstrated the highest 6-month post-discharge mortality estimates. Diarrhea demonstrated the shortest median time to death (3.3 weeks) and anemia the longest (8.9 weeks). Most significant risk factors for post-discharge mortality included unplanned discharges, severe malnutrition, and HIV seropositivity. Interpretation: Pediatric post-discharge mortality rates remain high in resource-poor settings, especially among children admitted with malnutrition or anemia. Global health strategies must prioritize this health issue by dedicating resources to research and policy innovation. Funding: No specific funding was received.

Post-discharge mortality among patients hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection, Bangladesh, 2012-2019: a prospective observational study.

Background: Enhancing outcomes post-hospitalisation requires an understanding of predictive factors for adverse events. This study aimed to estimate post-discharge mortality rates among patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Bangladesh, identify associated factors, and document reported causes of death. Methods: From January 2012 to December 2019, we conducted follow-up calls to patients or their families 30 days after discharge to assess the status of patients with SARI. Proportions of deaths within 30 days of discharge were estimated, and a comparative analysis of demographics, clinical characteristics, and influenza illness between decedents and survivors was performed using multivariable Cox regression models. Findings: Among 23,360 patients with SARI (median age: 20 years, IQR: 1.5-48, 65% male), 351 (1.5%) died during hospitalisation. Of 23,009 patients alive at discharge, 20,044 (87%) were followed, with 633 (3.2%) deaths within 30 days of discharge. In children (<18 years), difficulty breathing (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-3.0), longer hospital stay (aHR 1.1; 95% CI 1.1-1.1), and heart diseases (aHR 8.5; 95% CI 3.2-23.1) were associated with higher post-discharge death risk. Among adults (≥18 years), difficulty breathing (aHR 2.3; 95% CI 1.7-3.0), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4-2.2), and intensive care unit admission (aHR 5.2; 95% CI 1.9-14.0) were linked to elevated post-discharge death risk. Influenza virus was detected in 13% (46/351) of in-hospital SARI deaths and 10% (65/633) of post-discharge SARI deaths. Interpretation: Nearly one in twenty patients with SARI died during hospitalisation or within 1 month of discharge, with two-thirds of deaths occurring post-discharge. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended to mitigate influenza-associated mortality. To enhance post-discharge outcomes, hospitals should consider developing safe-discharge algorithms, reinforcing post-discharge care plans, and establishing outpatient monitoring for recently discharged patients. Funding: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA [U01GH002259].

Cardiac arrest and post-discharge mortality in patients with myocardial infarction: A large-scale nationwide registry analysis.

Background: Cardiac arrest is a serious complication of acute myocardial infarction. The implementation of contemporary approaches to acute myocardial infarction management, including urgent revascularization procedures, has led to significant improvements in short-term outcomes. However, the extent of post-discharge mortality in patients experiencing cardiac arrest during acute myocardial infarction remains uncertain. This study aimed to determine the post-discharge outcomes of patients with cardiac arrest. Methods: We analysed data from the J-PCI OUTCOME registry, a Japanese prospectively planed, observational, multicentre, national registry of percutaneous coronary intervention involving consecutive patients from 172 institutions who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention and were discharged. Patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention for acute myocardial infarction between January 2017 and December 2018 and survived for 30 days were included. Mortality in patients with and without cardiac arrest from 30 days to 1 year after percutaneous coronary intervention for acute myocardial infarction was compared. Results: Of the 26,909 patients who survived for 30 days after percutaneous coronary intervention for acute myocardial infarction, 1,567 (5.8%) had cardiac arrest at the onset of acute myocardial infarction. Patients with cardiac arrest were younger and more likely to be males than patients without cardiac arrest. The 1-year all-cause mortality was significantly higher in patients with cardiac arrest than in those without (11.9% vs. 2.8%, p < 0.001) for all age groups. Multivariable analysis showed that cardiac arrest was an independent predictor of all-cause long-term mortality (hazard ratio: 2.94; 95% confidence interval: 2.29-3.76). Conclusions: Patients with acute myocardial infarction and concomitant cardiac arrest have a worse prognosis for up to 1 year after percutaneous coronary intervention than patients without cardiac arrest.

Mortality in the Oldest-Old Adults After Discharge From Acute Geriatric Ward.

Aim: To examine risk factors for post-discharge mortality in the oldest-old patients. Methods: We have assessed the risk factors for mortality after discharge from acute geriatric ward in 448 patients aged ≥90. Results: Low albumin, high urea, and full dependence were risk factors for mortality within 1 month and within 1 year after discharge from hospital. Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index score, neuroleptic drug treatments and frailty were specific risk factors for post-discharge mortality within 1 year. By Cox regression analysis, the risk factors associated with higher hazard ratios for post-discharge mortality within 14 years follow-up were age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index score, poor functional status, anemia and dementia as comorbidities, neuroleptic drug treatments, low albumin, high urea, and high vitamin B12. Conclusion: Optimal treatment of the condition due to which the patient has been hospitalized and of the medical complications that occurred during hospitalization, while preventing functional decline, might secure longer post-discharge survival.

Characterising paediatric mortality during and after acute illness in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the CHAIN cohort using a machine learning approach.

Background: A better understanding of which children are likely to die during acute illness will help clinicians and policy makers target resources at the most vulnerable children. We used machine learning to characterise mortality in the 30-days following admission and the 180-days after discharge from nine hospitals in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods: A cohort of 3101 children aged 2-24 months were recruited at admission to hospital for any acute illness in Bangladesh (Dhaka and Matlab Hospitals), Pakistan (Civil Hospital Karachi), Kenya (Kilifi, Mbagathi, and Migori Hospitals), Uganda (Mulago Hospital), Malawi (Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital), and Burkina Faso (Banfora Hospital) from November 2016 to January 2019. To record mortality, children were observed during their hospitalisation and for 180 days post-discharge. Extreme gradient boosted models of death within 30 days of admission and mortality in the 180 days following discharge were built. Clusters of mortality sharing similar characteristics were identified from the models using Shapley additive values with spectral clustering. Findings: Anthropometric and laboratory parameters were the most influential predictors of both 30-day and post-discharge mortality. No WHO/IMCI syndromes were among the 25 most influential mortality predictors of mortality. For 30-day mortality, two lower-risk clusters (N = 1915, 61%) included children with higher-than-average anthropometry (1% died, 95% CI: 0-2), and children without signs of severe illness (3% died, 95% CI: 2-4%). The two highest risk 30-day mortality clusters (N = 118, 4%) were characterised by high urea and creatinine (70% died, 95% CI: 62-82%); and nutritional oedema with low platelets and reduced consciousness (97% died, 95% CI: 92-100%). For post-discharge mortality risk, two low-risk clusters (N = 1753, 61%) were defined by higher-than-average anthropometry (0% died, 95% CI: 0-1%), and gastroenteritis with lower-than-average anthropometry and without major laboratory abnormalities (0% died, 95% CI: 0-1%). Two highest risk post-discharge clusters (N = 267, 9%) included children leaving against medical advice (30% died, 95% CI: 25-37%), and severely-low anthropometry with signs of illness at discharge (46% died, 95% CI: 34-62%). Interpretation: WHO clinical syndromes are not sufficient at predicting risk. Integrating basic laboratory features such as urea, creatinine, red blood cell, lymphocyte and platelet counts into guidelines may strengthen efforts to identify high-risk children during paediatric hospitalisations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationOPP1131320.

Cardiovascular Biomarkers for Prediction of in-hospital and 1-Year Post-discharge Mortality in Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia.

Aims: While COVID-19 affects the cardiovascular system, the potential clinical impact of cardiovascular biomarkers on predicting outcomes in COVID-19 patients is still unknown. Therefore, to investigate this issue we analyzed the prognostic potential of cardiac biomarkers on in-hospital and long-term post-discharge mortality of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods: Serum soluble ST2, VCAM-1, and hs-TnI were evaluated upon admission in 280 consecutive patients hospitalized with COVID-19-associated pneumonia in a single, tertiary care center. Patient clinical and laboratory characteristics and the concentration of biomarkers were correlated with in-hospital [Hospital stay: 11 days (10; 14)] and post-discharge all-cause mortality at 1 year follow-up [FU: 354 days (342; 361)]. Results: 11 patients died while hospitalized for COVID-19 (3.9%), and 11 patients died during the 1-year post-discharge follow-up period (n = 11, 4.1%). Using multivariate analysis, VCAM-1 was shown to predict mortality during the hospital period (HR 1.081, CI 95% 1.035;1.129, p = 0.017), but not ST2 or hs-TnI. In contrast, during one-year FU post hospital discharge, ST2 (HR 1.006, 95% CI 1.002;1.009, p < 0.001) and hs-TnI (HR 1.362, 95% CI 1.050;1.766, p = 0.024) predicted mortality, although not VCAM-1. Conclusion: In patients hospitalized with Covid-19 pneumonia, elevated levels of VCAM-1 at admission were associated with in-hospital mortality, while ST2 and hs-TnI might predict post-discharge mortality in long term follow-up.

Predictors of in-hospital and 90-day post-discharge stroke mortality in Lusaka, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Factors associated with stroke mortality are understudied in sub-Saharan Africa but have implications for designing interventions that improve stroke outcomes. We investigated predictors of in-hospital and 90-day post-discharge stroke mortality in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: Data from consecutive adults admitted with stroke at University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia between October 2018 and March 2019 were retrospectively reviewed for clinical in-hospital outcomes. Vital status at 90-days post-discharge was determined through phone calls. Factors associated with stroke mortality were included in multivariable logistic regression models utilizing multiple imputation analysis to determine independent predictors of in-hospital and 90-days post-discharge mortality. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 24%, and 90-day post-discharge mortality was 22% among those who survived hospitalization. Hemorrhagic and unknown strokes, ICU care, seizures, and aspiration pneumonia were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. Among these, hemorrhagic stroke (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.27-6.53, p = 0.01) and seizures (OR 29.5, 95% CI 2.14-406, p = 0.01) remained independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in multivariable analyses. Ninety-day post-discharge mortality was significantly associated with older age, previous stroke, atrial fibrillation, and aspiration pneumonia, but only older age (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.007) and aspiration pneumonia (OR 3.93, 95% CI 1.30-11.88, p = 0.02) remained independently associated with 90-day mortality in multivariable analyses. CONCLUSION: This Zambian stroke cohort had high in-hospital and 90-day post-discharge mortality that were associated with several in-hospital complications. Our data indicate the need for improvement in both acute stroke care and post-stroke systems of care to improve stroke outcomes in Zambia.

Predicting mortality in cardiac care unit patients: external validation of the Mayo cardiac intensive care unit admission risk score.

AIMS: The Mayo Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score (M-CARS) had excellent performance in predicting in-hospital mortality in the US population. We sought to validate the M-CARS for in-hospital and post-discharge mortality in Asian patients admitted to the cardiac care unit (CCU). METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients admitted to the CCU of a tertiary care centre between July 2015 and December 2019 were included into the study. Patients with intra-hospital transfer to the CCU due to intensive care unit overflow, postoperative cardiac surgery, or for monitoring after elective procedures were excluded. Cardiac arrest, cardiogenic shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap, and red cell distribution width, were used to calculate the M-CARS. Patients were stratified into three groups, according to the M-CARS (<2, 2-6, >6). Of 1988 patients in the study, 30.1% were female with a median age of 65 years. Prevalence of cardiogenic shock and respiratory failure at admission were 2.8% and 4.5%, respectively. One hundred and seventeen patients died during the admission (mortality rate of 5.9%). The in-hospital mortality rate in patients with M-CARS of <2, 2-6, and >6 was 1.1%, 9.8%, and 35.5%, respectively. C-statistic of M-CARS for in-hospital mortality was 0.840 (95% CI 0.805-0.873); whereas, it was 0.727 (95% CI 0.690-0.761) for 1-year post-discharge mortality. Calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed in-hospital mortality in the majority of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The M-CARS was useful in our study, in terms of discrimination and calibration. M-CARS identified high-risk patients in CCU, who had unacceptably high mortality rate during hospital stay and thereafter.

Challenges in pediatric post-sepsis care in resource limited settings: a narrative review.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this narrative review is to outline the current epidemiology and interventional research within the context of sepsis recovery, and to provide a summary of key priorities for future work in this area. BACKGROUND: Morbidity and mortality secondary to sepsis disproportionately affects children, especially those in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where over 85% of global cases and deaths occur. These regions are plagued by poorly resilient health systems, widespread socio-economic deprivation and unique vulnerabilities such as malnutrition. Reducing the overall burden of sepsis will require a multi-pronged strategy that addresses all three important periods along the sepsis care continuum - pre-facility, facility and post-facility. Of these aspects, post-facility issues have been largely neglected in research, practice and policy, and are thus the focus of this review. METHODS: Relevant data for this review was identified through a literature search using PubMed, through a review of the citations of select systematic reviews and from the personal repositories of articles collected by the authors. Data is presented within three sections. The first two sections on the short and long-term outcomes among sepsis survivors each outline the epidemiology as well as review relevant interventional research done. Where clear gaps exist, these are stated. The third section focuses on priorities for future research. This section highlights the importance of data (and data systems) and of innovative interventional approaches, as key areas to improve research of post-sepsis outcomes in children. CONCLUSIONS: During the initial post-facility period, mortality is high with as many children dying during this period as during the acute period of hospitalization, mostly due to recurrent illness (including infections) which are associated with malnutrition and severe acute disease. Long-term outcomes, often labelled as post-sepsis syndrome (PSS), are characterized by a lag in developmental milestones and suboptimal quality of life (QoL). While long-term outcomes have not been well characterized in resource limited settings, they are well described in high-income countries (HICs), and likely are important contributors to long-term morbidity in resource limited settings. The paucity of interventional research to improve post-discharge outcomes (short- or long-term) is a clear gap in addressing its burden. A focus on the development of improved data systems for collecting routine data, standardized definitions and terminology and a health-systems approach in research need to be prioritized during any efforts to improve outcomes during the post-sepsis phase.

Two-year outcomes post-discharge in Asian patients with acute coronary syndrome: Findings from the EPICOR Asia study.

AIMS: Approximately half of cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) worldwide occur in Asia, with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) a leading cause of mortality. Long-term ACS-related outcomes data in Asia are limited. This analysis examined 2-year ACS-related outcomes in patients enrolled in the EPICOR Asia study, and the association between patient characteristics and management on outcomes. METHODS: EPICOR Asia is a multinational, prospective, primary data collection study of real-world management of Asian patients with ACS. Overall, 12,922 eligible adults (hospitalized for ACS within 48 h of symptom onset and who survived to discharge) were enrolled from 219 centers in eight Asian countries. Patients were followed up post-discharge for 2 years and clinical outcomes recorded. RESULTS: Patients were of mean age 60 years and 76% were male. Diagnoses were STEMI (51.2%), NSTEMI (19.9%), and UA (28.9%). During follow-up, 5.2% of patients died; NSTEMI patients had the highest risk profile. Mortality rate (adjusted HR [95% CI]) was similar in NSTEMI (0.97 [0.81-1.17]) and lower in UA (0.52 [0.33-0.82]) vs STEMI. Similar trends (adjusted) were seen for the composite endpoint of death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke, and bleeding rates did not differ significantly. For all three diagnoses, patients who were medically managed had a markedly elevated risk of both death and the composite endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: During 2-year follow-up, adjusted risks of mortality, the composite endpoint, and bleeding rates were similar in NSTEMI and STEMI patients. Outcomes risk was better for invasive management. Long-term management strategies in Asia need to be optimized.

Drug-related mortality after discharge from treatment: A record-linkage study of substance abuse clients in Texas, 2006-2012.

BACKGROUND: Patients have higher mortality immediately after substance abuse treatment discharge, but there are few data on post-discharge mortality differences across treatment modalities. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study examined individuals discharged from substance abuse treatment during 2006-2012 and probabilistically matched treatment records to death records. Logistic regression examined associations between drug-related death (DRD) and demographics; route, frequency, and classes of drugs abused; and treatment. Primary outcome was DRD during post-discharge days 0-28; secondary outcomes examined DRD during days 29-90 and 91-365. RESULTS: We examined 178,749 patients discharged from 254,814 treatment episodes. There were 97 DRD during days 0-28 (4.1/1000 person-years), 115 DRD during days 29-90 (2.6/1000 person-years; IRR 0.6 [95% CI 0.5-0.8]), and 293 DRD during days 91-365 (1.9/1000 person-years; IRR 0.5 [0.4-0.6]). Higher 28-day DRD was associated with abuse of opioids (aOR 2.5 [1.4-4.4]), depressants (aOR 2.0 [1.2-3.4]), or alcohol (aOR 1.7 [1.1-2.6]); and opioid injection (aOR 2.2 [1.3-3.7]). Lower DRD was associated with treatment completion (aOR 0.6 [0.4-0.9]), female sex (aOR 0.6 [0.4-0.8]), and employment (aOR 0.5 [0.3-0.9]). Among all patients, DRD rates were higher following residential (IRR 2.6, [1.6-4.2]) and detoxification (IRR 2.9, [1.7-4.9]) treatment compared to outpatient. Patients with prior opioid abuse had higher 28-day DRD after outpatient (6.7/1000 person-years; IRR 4.1 [1.8-9.1]), residential (13.6/1000 person-years; IRR 4.2 [2.2-8.2]), and detoxification (8.8/1000 person-years; IRR 3.2 [1.2, 8.5]) compared to those without. CONCLUSIONS: Drug-related mortality is highest during days 0-28 after discharge, especially following residential and detoxification treatment. Opioid abuse is strongly associated with early post-discharge mortality.

Predictor variables for post-discharge mortality modelling in infants: a protocol development project.

BACKGROUND: Over two-thirds of the five million annual deaths in children under five occur in infants, mostly in developing countries and many after hospital discharge. However, there is a lack of understanding of which children are at higher risk based on early clinical predictors. Early identification of vulnerable infants at high-risk for death post-discharge is important in order to craft interventional programs. OBJECTIVES: To determine potential predictor variables for post-discharge mortality in infants less than one year of age who are likely to die after discharge from health facilities in the developing world. METHODS: A two-round modified Delphi process was conducted, wherein a panel of experts evaluated variables selected from a systematic literature review. Variables were evaluated based on (1) predictive value, (2) measurement reliability, (3) availability, and (4) applicability in low-resource settings. RESULTS: In the first round, 18 experts evaluated 37 candidate variables and suggested 26 additional variables. Twenty-seven variables derived from those suggested in the first round were evaluated by 17 experts during the second round. A final total of 55 candidate variables were retained. CONCLUSION: A systematic approach yielded 55 candidate predictor variables to use in devising predictive models for post-discharge mortality in infants in a low-resource setting.

Pediatric out-of-hospital deaths following hospital discharge: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Out-of-hospital death among children living in resource poor settings occurs frequently. Little is known about the location and circumstances of child death following a hospital discharge. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to understand the context surrounding out-of-hospital deaths and the barriers to accessing timely care for Ugandan children recently discharged from the hospital. METHODS: This was a mixed-methods sub-study within a larger cohort study of post-discharge mortality conducted in the Southwestern region of Uganda. Children admitted with an infectious illness were eligible for enrollment in the cohort study, and then followed for six months after discharge. Caregivers of children who died outside of the hospital during the six month post-discharge period were eligible to participate in this sub-study. Qualitative interviews and univariate logistic regression were conducted to determine predictors of out-of-hospital deaths. RESULTS: Of 1,242 children discharged, 61 died during the six month post-discharge period, with most (n=40, 66%) dying outside of a hospital. Incremental increases in maternal education were associated with lower odds of out-of-hospital death compared to hospital death (OR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.19 - 0.81). The qualitative analysis identified health seeking behaviors and common barriers within the post-discharge period which delayed care seeking prior to death. For recently discharged children, caregivers often expressed hesitancy to seek care following a recent episode of hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Mortality following discharge often occurs outside of a hospital context. In addition to resource limitations, the health knowledge and perceptions of caregivers can be influential to timely access to care. Interventions to decrease child mortality must consider barriers to health seeking among children following hospital discharge.

Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post-discharge mortality from sepsis: a protocol development project.

BACKGROUND: Post-discharge mortality is a frequent but poorly recognized contributor to child mortality in resource limited countries. The identification of children at high risk for post-discharge mortality is a critically important first step in addressing this problem. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post-discharge mortality which are to be included in a prediction modelling study. METHODS: A two-round modified Delphi process was completed for the review of a priori selected variables and selection of new variables. Variables were evaluated on relevance according to (1) prediction (2) availability (3) cost and (4) time required for measurement. Participants included experts in a variety of relevant fields. RESULTS: During the first round of the modified Delphi process, 23 experts evaluated 17 variables. Forty further variables were suggested and were reviewed during the second round by 12 experts. During the second round 16 additional variables were evaluated. Thirty unique variables were compiled for use in the prediction modelling study. CONCLUSION: A systematic approach was utilized to generate an optimal list of candidate predictor variables for the incorporation into a study on prediction of pediatric post-discharge mortality in a resource poor setting.

Prognostic indicators of adverse renal outcome and death in acute kidney injury hospital survivors.

INTRODUCTION: Data regarding prognostic factors of post-discharge mortality and adverse renal function outcome in acute kidney injury (AKI) hospital survivors are scarce and controversial. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify predictors of post-discharge mortality and adverse renal function outcome in AKI hospital survivors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study group consisted of 84 AKI hospital survivors admitted to the tertiary medical center during 2-year period. Baseline clinical parameters, with renal outcome 3 months after discharge and 6-month mortality were evaluated. According survival and renal function outcome, patients were divided into two groups. RESULTS: Patients who did not recover renal function were statistically significantly older (P < 0.007) with higher Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score (P < 0.000) and more likely to have anuria and oliguria (P = 0.008) compared to those with recovery. Deceased AKI patients were statistically significantly older (P < 0.000), with higher CCI score (P < 0.000), greater prevalence of sepsis (P =0.004), higher levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) (P < 0.017) and ferritin (P < 0.051) and lower concentrations of albumin (P<0.01) compared to survivors. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors of adverse renal outcome were female gender (P =0.033), increasing CCI (P =0.000), presence of pre-existing chronic kidney disease (P =0.000) and diabetes mellitus (P =0.019) as well as acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) (P =0.032), while protective factor for renal function outcome was higher urine output (P =0.009). Independent predictors of post-discharge mortality were female gender (P =0.04), higher CCI score (P =0.001) and sepsis (P =0.034). CONCLUSION: Female AKI hospital survivors with increasing burden of comorbidities, diagnosis of sepsis and ADHF seem to be at high-risk for poor post-discharge outcome.

Delirium in hospitalized elderly patients and post-discharge mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of delirium on post-discharge mortality in hospitalized older patients. INTRODUCTION: Delirium is frequent in hospitalized older patients and correlates with high hospital mortality. There are only a few studies about its impact on post-discharge mortality. METHODS: This is a prospective study of patients over 60 years old who were hospitalized in the Geriatric Unit at Hospital das Clínicas of São Paulo between May 2006 and March 2007. Upon admission, demographics, comorbidities, number of drugs taken, and serum albumin concentration were evaluated for each patient. Delirium was diagnosed according to the DSM-IV criteria. Patients were divided into group A (with delirium) and group B (without delirium). One year after discharge, the patients or their caregivers were contacted to assess days of survival. RESULTS: The sample included 199 patients, 66 (33%) of whom developed delirium (Group A). After one year, 33 (50%) group A patients had died, and 45 (33.8%) group B patients had died (p = 0.03). There was a significant statistical difference in average age (p = 0.001) and immobility (p <0.001) between groups A and B. There were no statistically significant differences between groups A and B in number of drugs taken greater than four (p = 0.62), sex (p = 0.54) and number of diagnoses greater than four (p = 0.21). According to a multivariate analysis, delirium was not an independent predictor of post-discharge mortality. The predictors of post-discharge mortality were age > or = 80 years (p = 0.029), albumin concentration < 3.5 g/dl (p = 0.001) and immobility (p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Delirium is associated with higher post-discharge mortality as a dependent predictor.