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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(31): e2120138119, 2022 08 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35901207

RESUMO

Social norms have long been recognized as an important factor in curtailing antisocial behavior, and stricter prosocial norms are commonly associated with increased prosocial behavior. In this study, we provide evidence that very strict prosocial norms can have a perverse negative relationship with prosocial behavior. In laboratory experiments conducted in 10 countries across 5 continents, we measured the level of honest behavior and elicited injunctive norms of honesty. We find that individuals who hold very strict norms (i.e., those who perceive a small lie to be as socially unacceptable as a large lie) are more likely to lie to the maximal extent possible. This finding is consistent with a simple behavioral rationale. If the perceived norm does not differentiate between the severity of a lie, lying to the full extent is optimal for a norm violator since it maximizes the financial gain, while the perceived costs of the norm violation are unchanged. We show that the relation between very strict prosocial norms and high levels of rule violations generalizes to civic norms related to common moral dilemmas, such as tax evasion, cheating on government benefits, and fare dodging on public transportation. Those with very strict attitudes toward civic norms are more likely to lie to the maximal extent possible. A similar relation holds across countries. Countries with a larger fraction of people with very strict attitudes toward civic norms have a higher society-level prevalence of rule violations.


Assuntos
Características Culturais , Enganação , Comportamento Social , Normas Sociais , Humanos , Princípios Morais
2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(39): e2207487119, 2022 09 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36122235

RESUMO

Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period (ca. since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region's current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future.


Assuntos
Tempestades Ciclônicas , Secas , Condições Sociais , Humanos , Índia , Isótopos de Oxigênio , Chuva , Estações do Ano
3.
Bioscience ; 74(5): 319-321, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38854636

RESUMO

Citizen science is personal. Participation is contingent on the citizens' connection to a topic or to interpersonal relationships meaningful to them. But from the peer-reviewed literature, scientists appear to have an acquisitive data-centered relationship with citizens. This has spurred ethical and pragmatic criticisms of extractive relationships with citizen scientists. We suggest five practical steps to shift citizen-science research from extractive to relational, reorienting the research process and providing reciprocal benefits to researchers and citizen scientists. By virtue of their interests and experience within their local environments, citizen scientists have expertise that, if engaged, can improve research methods and product design decisions. To boost the value of scientific outputs to society and participants, citizen-science research teams should rethink how they engage and value volunteers.

4.
Psychol Med ; 54(8): 1787-1795, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38197145

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Individual placement and support (IPS) is an evidence-based practice that helps individuals with mental illness gain and retain employment. IPS was implemented for young adults at a municipality level through a cross-sectoral collaboration between specialist mental healthcare, primary mental healthcare, and the government funded employment service (NAV). We investigated whether IPS implementation had a causal effect on employment outcomes for all young adults in receipt of a temporary health-related rehabilitation (work assessment allowance, WAA) welfare benefit, measured at the societal level compared to municipalities that did not implement IPS. METHOD: We used a difference in differences design to estimate the effects of IPS implementation on the outcome of workdays per year using longitudinal registry data. We estimate the average effect of being exposed to IPS implementation during four-years of implementation compared to ten control municipalities without IPS for all WAA recipients. RESULTS: We found a significant, positive, causal effect on societal level employment outcomes of 5.6 (p = 0.001, 95% CI 2.7-8.4) increased workdays per year per individual, equivalent to 12.7 years of increased work in the municipality where IPS was implemented compared to municipalities without IPS. Three years after initial exposure to IPS implementation individuals worked, on average, 10.5 more days per year equating to 23.8 years of increased work. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing IPS as a cross sectoral collaboration at a municipality level has a significant, positive, causal, societal impact on employment outcomes for all young adults in receipt of a temporary health-related rehabilitation welfare benefit.


Assuntos
Readaptação ao Emprego , Transtornos Mentais , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto Jovem , Adulto , Transtornos Mentais/reabilitação , Reabilitação Vocacional/métodos , Emprego/estatística & dados numéricos , Seguridade Social , Adolescente , Estudos Longitudinais
5.
Value Health ; 2024 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39096962

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Health technology assessment bodies advocate capturing the value of interventions in terms of their benefits to health and broader welfare. The Wider Societal Impacts (WSI) framework considers how changes in health alter a person's net contribution to society - that is, what they produce minus what they consume. In this research, we review this framework and explore the scope to differentiate WSI by equity-relevant sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: This research updates previous calculations using publicly available data from population-based surveys in the UK. We then estimate for 199 chronic conditions: (i) WSI for the average person with the condition; and (ii) gain in WSI for an improvement of 0.1 in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) score. RESULTS: The nature and availability of information varied across population-based surveys, and precluded analyses to examine WSI by population subgroup. Our updated estimates mirrored earlier findings that consideration of the broader societal impacts of health would reprioritise interventions compared to assessment on health alone. For example, for the same improvement in health, a woman experiencing diseases of the circulatory system has the highest potential gain in WSI (£354/ month) whereas a man experiencing HIV has the lowest potential gain (£233/month). CONCLUSIONS: The WSI framework provides a simple, indirect method to inform resource allocation decisions. Understanding the equity implications of this approach was hindered by differences in the information collected across population-based surveys. Findings demonstrate the potential reprioritisation that may occur if the broader welfare benefits of health interventions were used to inform coverage decisions.

6.
Value Health ; 27(6): 721-729, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38462225

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: This study assesses the impact of expanding pneumococcal vaccination to all 50-year-olds to decrease racial disparities by estimating from the societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness of 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) and 15-valent conjugate vaccine followed by 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PCV15/PPSV23) for 50-year-olds. METHODS: A Markov model compared the cost-effectiveness of PCV20 or PCV15/PPSV23 in all general population 50- and 65-years-olds compared with current US recommendations and with no vaccination in US Black and non-Black cohorts. US data informed model parameters. Pneumococcal disease societal costs were estimated using direct and indirect costs of acute illness and of pneumococcal-related long-term disability and mortality. Hypothetical 50-year-old cohorts were followed over their lifetimes with costs and effectiveness discounted 3% per year. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses assessed model uncertainty. RESULTS: In Black cohorts, PCV20 for all at ages 50 and 65 was the least costly strategy and had greater effectiveness than no vaccination and current recommendation strategies, whereas PCV15/PPSV23 at 50 and 65 cost more than $1 million per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained compared with PCV20 at 50 and 65. In non-Black cohorts, PCV20 at 50 and 65 cost $62 083/QALY and PCV15/PPSV23 at 50 and 65 cost more than $1 million/QALY with current recommendations, again being more costly and less effective. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, PCV20 at 50 and 65 was favored in 85.7% (Black) and 61.8% (non-Black) of model iterations at a $100 000/QALY gained willingness-to-pay threshold. CONCLUSIONS: When considering the societal costs of pneumococcal disease, PCV20 at ages 50 and 65 years in the general US population is a potentially economically viable strategy, particularly in Black cohorts.


Assuntos
Análise Custo-Benefício , Cadeias de Markov , Infecções Pneumocócicas , Vacinas Pneumocócicas , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Humanos , Vacinas Pneumocócicas/economia , Vacinas Pneumocócicas/administração & dosagem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções Pneumocócicas/prevenção & controle , Infecções Pneumocócicas/economia , Infecções Pneumocócicas/etnologia , Estados Unidos , Idoso , Masculino , Feminino , Vacinação/economia , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/economia , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/etnologia , Negro ou Afro-Americano , Análise de Custo-Efetividade
7.
Value Health ; 27(4): 425-432, 2024 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38307390

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Head and neck cancer (HNC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide. The condition and its treatment often lead to marked morbidities and, for some patients, premature death. Inferentially, HNC imposes a significant economic burden on society. This study aims to provide a comprehensive and detailed estimation of the cost of illness of HNC for Sweden in 2019. METHODS: This is a prevalence-based cost of illness study. Resource utilization and related costs are quantified using national registry data. A societal perspective is applied, including (1) direct costs for healthcare utilization, (2) costs for informal care from family and friends, and (3) costs for productivity loss due to morbidity and premature death. The human capital approach is used when estimating productivity losses. RESULTS: The societal cost of HNC for Sweden in 2019 was estimated at €92 million, of which the direct costs, costs for informal care, and costs for productivity loss represented 34%, 2%, and 64%, respectively. Oral cavity cancer was the costliest HNC, followed by oropharyngeal cancer, whereas nasopharyngeal cancer was the costliest per person. The cost of premature mortality comprised 60% of the total cost of productivity loss. Males accounted for 65% of direct costs and 67% of costs for productivity loss. CONCLUSIONS: The societal cost of HNC is substantial and constitutes a considerable burden to Swedish society. The results of the present study may be used by policymakers for planning and allocation of resources. Furthermore, the information may be used for future cost-effectiveness analyses.


Assuntos
Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Neoplasias Nasofaríngeas , Masculino , Humanos , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Suécia/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/epidemiologia , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/terapia
8.
BMC Neurol ; 24(1): 224, 2024 Jun 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38943063

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Neuropsychological symptoms in the Cognitive, Energetic, Behavioural, and Affective (CEBA) domains are common in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) and can negatively affect societal participation. The current study aims to investigate whether there are combinations of symptoms in the different CEBA domains that consistently occur together, that is, if there are CEBA profiles that can be identified. If so, this study aims to develop a screening instrument identifying CEBA profiles in PwMS to select the most suitable neuropsychological rehabilitation treatment for a given CEBA profile and consequently improve the societal participation of PwMS. METHODS: This study is an observational, prospective cohort study consisting of 3 phases. Phase 1 focuses on the identification of CEBA profiles in a large sample of PwMS (n = 300). Phase 2 focuses on validating these CEBA profiles through replication of results in a new sample (n = 100) and on the development of the screening instrument. Phase 3 focuses on qualitatively evaluating in a small group of PwMS whether the selected treatment is suitable for the given CEBA profile or whether existing neuropsychological treatments should be adapted to meet the needs of PwMS suffering from symptoms in multiple CEBA domains simultaneously. Primary outcome is the CEBA profile, which will be derived from performance on neuropsychological assessment consisting of tests and questionnaires regarding the CEBA domains using a latent profile analysis. Inclusion criteria include MS diagnosis, sufficient ability in the Dutch language, and an age between 18 and 70 years. DISCUSSION: The results of the current study will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the entire spectrum of neuropsychological symptoms in PwMS. Identification of possible CEBA profiles, and accordingly, the development of a screening instrument determining the CEBA profile of PwMS in clinical practice, contributes to the timely referral of PwMS to the most suitable neuropsychological rehabilitation treatment. If necessary, adjustments to existing treatments will be suggested in order to sufficiently meet the needs of PwMS. All of this with the ultimate aim to improve societal participation, and thereby quality of life, of PwMS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Central Committee on Research Involving Human Subjects (CCMO) NL83954.042.23; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06016309.


Assuntos
Esclerose Múltipla , Humanos , Esclerose Múltipla/psicologia , Esclerose Múltipla/complicações , Esclerose Múltipla/diagnóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Testes Neuropsicológicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos de Coortes
9.
Periodontol 2000 ; 2024 May 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38693603

RESUMO

Periodontal and peri-implant diseases result from a chronic inflammatory response to dysbiotic microbial communities and are characterized by inflammation in the soft tissue and the ensuing progressive destruction of supporting bone, resulting in tooth or implant loss. These diseases' high prevalence, multifactorial etiology, extensive treatment costs, and significant detriment to patients' quality-of-life underscore their status as a critical public health burden. This review delineates the economic and sociocultural ramifications of periodontal and peri-implant diseases on patient welfare and healthcare economics. We delve into the implications of diagnosis, treatment, supportive care, and managing destructive tissue consequences, contrasting these aspects with healthy patients.

10.
Anal Bioanal Chem ; 416(8): 1787-1795, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38263493

RESUMO

This feature article discusses the enabling role of analytical chemistry in important fields of research and development such as life science, material sciences and environmental sciences. It comments on the often limited visibility of analytical sciences in the public perception and suggests ways to overcome this shortcoming and to create bigger impact.

11.
Cost Eff Resour Alloc ; 22(1): 41, 2024 May 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38741138

RESUMO

The term 'perspective' in the context of economic evaluations and costing studies in healthcare refers to the viewpoint that an analyst has adopted to define the types of costs and outcomes to consider in their studies. However, there are currently notable variations in terms of methodological recommendations, definitions, and applications of different perspectives, depending on the objective or intended user of the study. This can make it a complex area for stakeholders when interpreting these studies. Consequently, there is a need for a comprehensive overview regarding the different types of perspectives employed in such analyses, along with the corresponding implications of their use. This is particularly important, in the context of low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), where practical guidelines may be less well-established and infrastructure for conducting economic evaluations may be more limited. This article addresses this gap by summarising the main types of perspectives commonly found in the literature to a broad audience (namely the patient, payer, health care providers, healthcare sector, health system, and societal perspectives), providing their most established definitions and outlining the corresponding implications of their uses in health economic studies, with examples particularly from LMIC settings. We then discuss important considerations when selecting the perspective and present key arguments to consider when deciding whether the societal perspective should be used. We conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all answer to what perspective should be used and the perspective chosen will be influenced by the context, policymakers'/stakeholders' viewpoints, resource/data availability, and intended use of the analysis. Moving forward, considering the ongoing issues regarding the variation in terminology and practice in this area, we urge that more standardised definitions of the different perspectives and the boundaries between them are further developed to support future studies and guidelines, as well as to improve the interpretation and comparison of health economic evidence.

12.
Eur Arch Psychiatry Clin Neurosci ; 274(1): 139-149, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37598131

RESUMO

Personality disorders (PDs) are associated with high levels of societal costs, regardless of whether a single PD or a broad range of PDs have been studied. However, research on the relative contribution of specific PD-types on societal costs is limited. The aim of this study was to explore the possible contributions of the individual DSM-5 categories of PDs on the level of societal costs and its components (health service costs and productivity loss), while controlling for the impact of comorbid mental health and substance use disorders on these outcomes. Participants (n = 798) were retrieved from the quality register of the Norwegian Network for Personality Disorders-a collaboration of PD-treatment units within specialist mental health services. The patients were referred to treatment in the time-period 2017-2020. Costs were assessed using a structured interview covering the 6-month period prior to assessment. Diagnoses were determined by semi-structured diagnostic interviews (SCID-5-PD and M.I.N.I.). Statistics included multiple regression analyses. The main result was that no specific PD had a unique contribution to the high level of societal costs generally found among treatment-seeking patients with PDs. Borderline PD (BPD) was the only PD with significantly higher health service costs than the other PDs, while BPD, avoidant PD, and unspecified PD were independently associated with enhanced productivity loss. The differential cost-effects of specific PDs on the cost components were small. Several comorbid mental health and substance use disorders were significant contributors to costs, irrespective of PD status. The results underscore the importance of developing and implementing effective treatments for a broader range of PDs, to reduce the high levels of societal costs associated with all PDs.


Assuntos
Serviços de Saúde Mental , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias , Humanos , Transtornos da Personalidade/diagnóstico , Transtornos da Personalidade/epidemiologia , Transtornos da Personalidade/terapia , Análise de Regressão , Manual Diagnóstico e Estatístico de Transtornos Mentais , Noruega/epidemiologia , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias/epidemiologia , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias/terapia
13.
BMC Geriatr ; 24(1): 155, 2024 Feb 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38355461

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The multidimensional and dynamically complex process of ageing presents key challenges to economic evaluation of geriatric interventions, including: (1) accounting for indirect, long-term effects of a geriatric shock such as a fall; (2) incorporating a wide range of societal, non-health outcomes such as informal caregiver burden; and (3) accounting for heterogeneity within the demographic group. Measures of frailty aim to capture the multidimensional and syndromic nature of geriatric health. Using a case study of community-based falls prevention, this article explores how incorporating a multivariate frailty index in a decision model can help address the above key challenges. METHODS: A conceptual structure of the relationship between geriatric shocks and frailty was developed. This included three key associations involving frailty: (A) the shock-frailty feedback loop; (B) the secondary effects of shock via frailty; and (C) association between frailty and intervention access. A case study of economic modelling of community-based falls prevention for older persons aged 60 + was used to show how parameterising these associations contributed to addressing the above three challenges. The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) was the main data source for parameterisation. A new 52-item multivariate frailty index was generated from ELSA. The main statistical methods were multivariate logistic and linear regressions. Estimated regression coefficients were inputted into a discrete individual simulation with annual cycles to calculate the continuous variable value or probability of binary event given individuals' characteristics. RESULTS: All three conceptual associations, in their parameterised forms, contributed to addressing challenge (1). Specifically, by worsening the frailty progression, falls incidence in the model increased the risk of falling in subsequent cycles and indirectly impacted the trajectories and levels of EQ-5D-3 L, mortality risk, and comorbidity care costs. Intervention access was positively associated with frailty such that the greater access to falls prevention by frailer individuals dampened the falls-frailty feedback loop. Association (B) concerning the secondary effects of falls via frailty was central to addressing challenge (2). Using this association, the model was able to estimate how falls prevention generated via its impact on frailty paid and unpaid productivity gains, out-of-pocket care expenditure reduction, and informal caregiving cost reduction. For challenge (3), frailty captured the variations within demographic groups of key model outcomes including EQ-5D-3 L, QALY, and all-cause care costs. Frailty itself was shown to have a social gradient such that it mediated socially inequitable distributions of frailty-associated outcomes. CONCLUSION: The frailty-based conceptual structure and parameterisation methods significantly improved upon the methods previously employed by falls prevention models to address the key challenges for geriatric economic evaluation. The conceptual structure is applicable to other geriatric and non-geriatric intervention areas and should inform the data selection and statistical methods to parameterise structurally valid economic models of geriatric interventions.


Assuntos
Fragilidade , Humanos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Fragilidade/diagnóstico , Fragilidade/epidemiologia , Fragilidade/terapia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Estudos Longitudinais , Envelhecimento
14.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1315, 2024 May 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38750531

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to contribute to the theoretical development within the field of labour market effects on mental health during life by integrating Bronfenbrenner's ecological model with mainly earlier theoretical work on life-course theory. METHODS: An integrative review was performed of all 52 publications about labour market conditions in relation to mental health from the longitudinal Northern Swedish Cohort study. Inductive and deductive qualitative content analysis were performed in relation to Bronfenbrenner's ecological framework combined with life-course theories. RESULTS: The following nine themes were identified: 1. Macroeconomic recession impairs mental health among young people. 2. The mental health effects on individuals of youth unemployment seem rather insensitive to recession. 3. Small but consistent negative effect of neighbourhood unemployment and other work-related disadvantaged on individuals' mental health over life. 4. Youth unemployment becomes embodied as scars of mental ill-health over life. 5. Weak labour market attachment impairs mental health over life. 6. Bidirectional relations between health and weak labour market attachment over life. 7. Macrolevel structures are of importance for how labour market position cause poor health. 8. Unequal gender relations at work impacts negatively on mental health. 9. The agency to improve health over life in dyadic relations. Unemployment in society permeates from the macrolevel into the exolevel, defined by Bronfenbrenner as for example the labour market of parents or partners or the neighbourhood into the settings closest to the individual (the micro- and mesolevel) and affects the relations between the work, family, and leisure spheres of the individual. Neighbourhood unemployment leads to poor health among those who live there, independent of their employment status. Individuals' exposure to unemployment and temporary employment leads to poorer mental health over the life-course. Temporal dimensions were identified and combined with Bronfenbrenner levels into a contextual life-course model CONCLUSION: Combining the ecosocial theory with life-course theories provides a framework for understanding the embodiment of work-related mental health over life. The labour market conditions surrounding the individual are of crucial importance for the embodiment of mental health over life, at the same time as individual agency can be health promoting. Mental health can be improved by societal efforts in regulations of the labour market.


Assuntos
Saúde Mental , Desemprego , Humanos , Suécia/epidemiologia , Saúde Mental/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Masculino , Desemprego/psicologia , Desemprego/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Emprego/psicologia , Emprego/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Estudos de Coortes , Modelos Teóricos , Adulto Jovem , Estudos Longitudinais , Recessão Econômica , Transtornos Mentais/epidemiologia , Transtornos Mentais/psicologia
15.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 200, 2024 01 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38233845

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences. METHODS: We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy. RESULTS: For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $7.5 billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $97 billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district-wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31-47 million) and deaths (105,000-156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($88-$103 billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the net costs per death averted ($180,000-$4.2 million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($4.6 to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.


Assuntos
Análise de Custo-Efetividade , Influenza Humana , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Instituições Acadêmicas
16.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 583, 2024 Feb 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38395773

RESUMO

The present study examines, as research questions, which and to what extent psychological and demographic variables significantly predict individual, community, and societal resilience among a sample of Czech Republic adults (N = 1,100) six months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The research tools included the following scales: Societal, community, and individual resilience; hope, well-being; morale; distress symptoms; a sense of danger; and perceived threats. The results indicated the following: (a) Correlation analysis shows that resilience is significantly and positively correlated with supporting coping factors and significantly and negatively correlated with suppressing coping factors. (b) A comparison of supporting coping indicators (hope, well-being, and morale) and suppressing coping indicators (distress symptoms, sense of danger, and perceived threats) in the Czech Republic with those variables in Slovakia and Israel indicated that Israel reported higher resilience, higher supporting coping indicators, and lower suppressing coping factors. Three-path analysis among the Czech sample indicated that the best predictor of SR was the level of hope, the best predictor of CR was morale, and the best predictor of IR was the sense of danger. In an attempt to explain these findings in the discussion section, we refer to the background of Czech society and a possible connection to the findings.


Assuntos
Resiliência Psicológica , Adulto , Humanos , República Tcheca , Eslováquia/epidemiologia , Ucrânia , Capacidades de Enfrentamento
17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39080009

RESUMO

PURPOSE: For many individuals with a psychotic disorder societal recovery is not accomplished. Research on societal recovery trajectories is mostly focussed on patients with a first episode psychosis. The present study aims to identify distinct societal trajectories in those with long duration of illness, through the identification of patient subgroups that are characterized by homogeneous trajectories. METHODS: Longitudinal data were used from an ongoing dynamic cohort in which people with a psychotic disorder receive yearly measurements to perform a latent class growth analysis. Societal functioning was assessed with the Functional Recovery tool, consisting of three items (1) daily living and self-care, (2) work, study and housekeeping, and (3) social contacts. Furthermore, logistic regression was used to compare subgroups with similar societal recovery at baseline, but distinct trajectories. RESULTS: A total of 1476 people were included with a mean treatment time of 19 years (SD 10.1). Five trajectories of functioning were identified, a high stable (24.5%), a medium stable (28.3%), a low stable (12.7%), a high declining (11.2%) and a medium increasing subgroup (23.3%). Predictors for not deteriorating included happiness, recent hospitalisation, being physically active, middle or higher education and fewer negative symptoms. Predictors for improving included fewer positive and negative symptoms, fewer behavioural problems and fewer physical and cognitive impairments. CONCLUSION: While the majority of individuals show a stable trajectory over four years, there were more patients achieving societal recovery than patients deteriorating. Predictors for improvement are mainly related to symptoms and behavioural problems, while predictors for deteriorating are related to non-symptomatic aspects such as physical activity, happiness and level of education.

18.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord ; 25(1): 72, 2024 Jan 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38238802

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal pain is multidimensional and associated with significant societal impact. Persistent or chronic pain is a public health priority. A step towards high-value care is a contemporary understanding of pain. While pain-related knowledge has been examined in specific conditions (e.g. neck pain) knowledge of the public's broader understanding regarding musculoskeletal pain per se, warrants investigation. This study examined the public's knowledge and beliefs regarding musculoskeletal pain and pain management. METHODS: This observational cohort study was conducted in Guernsey (January 2019-February 2020). Participants (n = 1656; 76.0% female) completed an online questionnaire capturing: demographics, pain experience, work absenteeism, understanding of pain and pain management, multidimensional influences, physical activity, pain catastrophising and healthcare decision-making. Statements were deemed true/false/equivocal and mapped to biopsychosocial/biomedical/neutral perspectives based upon contemporary literature. Descriptive statistics were analysed for each statement. Participants' responses were examined for alignment to a contemporary viewpoint and themes within responses derived using a semi-quantitative approach modelled on direct content analysis. Comparisons between participants with/without pain were examined (χ2-squared/Wilcoxon Rank Sum test). RESULTS: Within the cohort 83.6% reported currently experiencing pain. The overarching theme was perspectives that reflected both biomedical and contemporary, multidimensional understandings of pain. Sub-themes included uncertainty about pain persistence and evidence-based means to reduce recurrence, and reliance upon healthcare professionals for guiding decision-making. Compared to those with pain, those without had a greater belief that psychological interventions may help and lower pain catastrophising. CONCLUSIONS: Participants' understanding of pain demonstrated both biomedical and multidimensional pain understanding consistent with elements of a contemporary understanding of pain.


Assuntos
Dor Crônica , Dor Musculoesquelética , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Dor Musculoesquelética/diagnóstico , Dor Musculoesquelética/terapia , Guernsey , Dor Crônica/diagnóstico , Dor Crônica/terapia , Dor Crônica/psicologia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Cervicalgia/diagnóstico , Cervicalgia/terapia
19.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(52)2021 12 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34934006

RESUMO

Researchers in areas as diverse as computer science and political science must increasingly navigate the possible risks of their research to society. However, the history of medical experiments on vulnerable individuals influenced many research ethics reviews to focus exclusively on risks to human subjects rather than risks to human society. We describe an Ethics and Society Review board (ESR), which fills this moral gap by facilitating ethical and societal reflection as a requirement to access grant funding: Researchers cannot receive grant funding from participating programs until the researchers complete the ESR process for their proposal. Researchers author an initial statement describing their proposed research's risks to society, subgroups within society, and globally and commit to mitigation strategies for these risks. An interdisciplinary faculty panel iterates with the researchers to refine these risks and mitigation strategies. We describe a mixed-method evaluation of the ESR over 1 y, in partnership with a large artificial intelligence grant program at our university. Surveys and interviews of researchers who interacted with the ESR found 100% (95% CI: 87 to 100%) were willing to continue submitting future projects to the ESR, and 58% (95% CI: 37 to 77%) felt that it had influenced the design of their research project. The ESR panel most commonly identified issues of harms to minority groups, inclusion of diverse stakeholders in the research plan, dual use, and representation in datasets. These principles, paired with possible mitigation strategies, offer scaffolding for future research designs.

20.
Risk Anal ; 44(4): 907-917, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37573034

RESUMO

Hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are among the most important infrastructures for fuel cell vehicles. However, the safety issue of HRSs has become a key constraint to the wide application and development of hydrogen energy. This article presents a quantitative risk assessment of the first liquid HRS (LHRS) in China and conducts a comprehensive assessment in terms of both individual (IR) and societal risks (SRs). The results showed that both the IRs and SRs related to the LHRS exceeded the risk acceptance criteria. The rupture of the flexible hose of the dispenser and the leak from the compressor are the main contributors to these risks. On the other hand, implementing appropriate mitigation measures on the level of the LHRS dispenser and compressor, including the addition of breakaway couplings in the flexible hose of the dispenser, the installation of hydrogen detection sensors, the arrangement of automatic and manual emergency shutdown buttons, and the elevation of the compressor, is capable of reducing the risk of the LHRS to be within the risk acceptance criteria.

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